DiamondCentric

Luis Campusano hasn't always had the easiest path to relevance as a member of the San Diego Padres. In 2024, for example, the catcher that had reached as high as third on the team's list of top prospects turned in strong offensive numbers (133 wRC+) but was essentially unplayable behind the plate (-13 Catching Runs). The following year, he was basically an afterthought, earning a meager total of 27 plate appearances with the big-league club (all of which came as either a designated or pinch hitter). Upon the change on the bench in the form of manager Craig Stammen in 2026, though, Campusano received what was thought of as one last chance to stick around. While Freddy Fermin was the assumed starter behind the plate, the team didn't take any real measures toward addressing the position otherwise, leaving Campusano as the backup. With the exception of a broken toe that help him out for most of May and all of June, he was able to make the most of the opportunity. That was most apparent on the offensive side. Production in that sense can be difficult to find from behind the plate, but Campusano's final line on the season read .265/.363/.433, with a .167 ISO and a 127 wRC+. He was particularly impressive upon his return in July wherein he hit .326 with a 156 wRC+. While the batted ball luck waned down the stretch (.229 BABIP in September), he was still able to provide value in the form of a .154 ISO. Of course, none of that was surprising. In his last real action back in 2024, he'd demonstrated plenty of skill at the plate. The concern around whether Campusano could stick was always going to come on the strength of his growth as a catcher. As it turns out, that also manifested in a positive sense this year. In 2024, Campusano posted that -13 Catcher Runs figure. That was the culmination of a -8 for framing, a -3 for blocking, and another -2 for throwing. The framing number put him 84th among catchers that received at least 100 pitches, 89th in blocking, and 81st in throwing among those with at least five steal attempts against. It was all quite bad. The 2026 iteration of Campusano, however, was one that showcased marked improvement across the board. No, he didn't leap up to a suddenly above-average status in each, but he was steady in his development across the various areas. He ultimately landed at -4 Framing Runs, -1 Blocking Runs, and +3 Throwing Runs. Yes, that's still below average in framing, but he got close to average in blocking and comfortably above that threshold in throwing. That's the kind of skill set the Padres can work with from a No. 2 catcher, especially one that provides the kind of offensive upside that Campusano possesses. It seems like it was a season that did enough to secure him a roster spot moving forward. With Ethan Salas likely to grab the starter job for the foreseeable future, the choice of backup could very well come down to Campusano and Freddy Fermin. While Fermin has defensive skills head-and-shoulders above his counterpart, the fact that Campusano left 2026 as basically an average defender is wildly encouraging against the backdrop of his offensive skill set. The blend of the two seems like the more ideal one to keep around, and it's a testament to Campusano's improvement that there's such a strong argument to be made in his favor considering where he stood just one year ago. View the full article

Twenty-seven is baseball's holy number. It takes 27 outs to win a game, unless it rains—and this year, during the World Series, we don't have to worry about rain. If the atom of the game is the at-bat (made up of three subatomic strikes), then its molecular lattice is the inning (three outs on each side, balanced like the sides of a strand of DNA). Cobble together nine innings, and you have a game. There's something divine about it, the way the whole thing spirals out: 3 x 3 x 9 (which is really just another 3 x 3, right?), all played out on what we call a diamond but what really looks like a flattened cone—a triangle, with a beer gut. I expect this World Series, played between two of the most delightfully deep and versatile teams in recent memory, to be like a weeklong vigil in the church of ball, so let's begin it by performing a ritual that entwines us with the sport's holy arithmetic. Here are three little wrinkles and big ideas that will (you know, probably; even God is not as unpredictable as baseball) influence the action as the Brewers try to capture their first-ever championship. We'll do three more, and three more after that, and keep the threes coming right up until Game 1 on Friday night. 1. The Fastest Ever vs. The Fastest Ever By now, it should be news to no one whatsoever that Jacob Misiorowski is the hardest-throwing pitcher in baseball history. He might even have the best fastball ever, though that's a slightly different question and an impossible one to answer. On April 26, I wrote that Misiorowski's start the previous day against the Yankees might never be duplicated by anyone, in terms of the number of pitches thrown at an unbelievable speed for a non-contact strike. It's one of my funniest bad takes ever. Misiorowski equaled or exceeded that outing nine times over the ensuing 100 days or so. He's an outlier. He's a monster. He hasn't been quite as good since the All-Star break, but he's had ample rest over the last few weeks. We'll see some fireworks from him during this series. What might be news to you, though, is that Misiorowski isn't the only historical outlier who'll appear in the top of the first inning of Game 1. I'm not quite as confident that no hitter has ever swung faster than Junior Caminero as I am that no pitcher has ever thrown harder than Misiorowski, but it's a fact that in the (very limited, dating only to the All-Star break in 2023) bat-tracking era, Caminero's 79.5-MPH average swing speed this season is the fastest Statcast has tracked. Caminero did a better job cutting the plate in half this season, and a better job of swinging with conviction as a result. The Guardians got Caminero out by throwing him a slew of high fastballs that induced him to expand at the top of the zone. In theory, no pitcher has ever been better-suited to that strategy than Misiorowski, but this feels a little like that moment in Ocean's Eleven (2001) where the demolition crew accidentally blows the Bellagio's backup grid, foiling the gang's initial plan for knocking out the power. The easiest way to confound Caminero has been used up. Now, Misiorowski and the Brewers might have to come up with their equivalent of "The Pinch". 2. The Slumbering Superhero The numbers haven't been pretty lately. Jackson Chourio is batting .148/.172/.259 since his walkoff single in Game 2 of the NLDS. There's something real in need of redress there, too. He's only walked once in 29 plate appearances over that (tiny) six-game sample, which isn't tenable. But he's also hit into some rotten luck. More importantly, he's now had a moment to gather a deep breath and reset himself for one final burst of genius at the plate. Bet on seeing it. Because the postseason doesn't look like the regular season in terms of the pitching population, evaluating hitters based on their whole body of work from March through September is a poor way to predict what will happen in October. Therefore, I took the 110 best pitchers who threw at least 50 innings this season (according to Baseball Prospectus's DRA-) and searched up hitters' performances against them. All of the hurlers in question were at least 10% better than an average pitcher, based on the Deserved Run Average model. The leaderboard in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) against those pitchers among hitters on these two teams looks like this: Chourio: .362 Jake Bauers: .352 Caminero: .333 Jonathan Aranda: .318 Yandy Díaz: .318 William Contreras: .314 Gary Sánchez: .300 Andrew Vaughn: .299 Brice Turang: .296 Richie Palacios: .295 I don't pretend that this data is destiny. The samples are inherently small. It's worth taking careful note, though, of how far clear of even the Rays' formidable trio Chourio is. As I documented in late August, Chourio has made some vital adjustments of late, and he's tracing a Hall of Fame arc over the first three seasons of his career. That's already included plenty of postseason heroics, which shouldn't surprise us. He hit good pitching well all year; he's never been one to get fat on punishing chumps. 3. The Two Kinds of Defensive Genius No team in the league turned batted balls into outs more efficiently than the Rays, with a Defensive Efficiency rating of .723, meaning they recorded almost three outs for every four balls in play. The Brewers were a sturdy sixth, though, at .712. They both play great defense, but they couldn't do it much more differently. No team in baseball used shaded infield alignments more often than the Rays did this year, according to Baseball Savant. No team in baseball used those alignments less often than did the Brewers, going by the same numbers. More so than in the past (before rules changes outlawed the true infield shift), this is subjective, but when you watch the teams play, it's apparent how real the difference in strategy is. The Rays crowd their weak-side middle infielder much closer to the second-base bag than the Brewers do, on average. In fact, keep an eye out for a possible challenge by the Brewers at some point in the series. The Rays are one of just two teams to be penalized at all for violating the shift ban this season, and they're almost always flirting with doing so. With the stakes as high as they are now, the Brewers will be vigilant. They have to be, because no team gets more value from the way it positions its defense than Tampa Bay does. According to Sports Info Solutions, they realized a massive 44 runs of value based purely on shifting their infielders this year. We'll talk about one special case within that pool of value in a future installment, but for now, consider some examples of just how well they get their guys in front of balls that would otherwise go through or prove very, very difficult to convert into outs. The Brewers have a huge source of value on the infield, too. It's just that theirs has a name and a pulse. Brice Turang saved more runs than any other infielder this year, according to SIS and their flagship defensive metric, Defensive Runs Saved. The Brewers' plan for getting outs on grounders and line drives is pretty simple: put Turang somewhere near the ball. Funnel everything to him. It sounds implausible, but it works marvelously. There's the first inning. Three up, three down. Come back later today for more; this Series will offer us plenty. View the full article

The 2026 Blue Jays struggled in many areas. Their 94 team wRC+ was 24th in the majors. But it gets worse. Their 648 runs scored were dead last – 30th out of 30 teams – as were their .298 team xwOBA, .134 team ISO, and 152 home runs. Some of that disappointing performance was due to injuries (Toronto lost $77 million of payroll to injuries – fifth most in MLB) and some to underperformance. (George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, and Ernie Clement had an aggregate 17 fWAR in 2025. In 2026, those four players aggregated 5.4 fWAR.) So there is some reason for optimism that Toronto could rebound offensively to some extent in 2027. But it clearly behooves Blue Jays management to seek offensive upgrades in the offseason. There are several options potentially available. On the free agent front, Seiya Suzuki is coming off a 4.6 fWAR, 134 wRC+, .204 ISO season with the Cubs. Randy Arozarena was even better, statistically, with a 5.5 fWAR and 151 wRC+. On the international signing front, Teruaki Sato of the Hanshin Tigers is expected to be posted and is coming off a year of .306/.383/.609, 39 HR, and 106 RBI in Japan. And players like Cleveland’s Steven Kwan and Boston’s Jarren Duran are rumoured to be available in trade. The complication with most of these players is that their primary position is corner outfield. At first glance, this does not appear to be an issue. In 2026, the Jays earned 0.9 fWAR from the left field position (24th in MLB). Their 1.9 fWAR from right field was better – 16th in MLB – but that was primarily due to Nathan Lukes’ 2.2 fWAR in 450 PA. And Lukes would make an ideal fourth outfielder – he can play all three outfield positions (with a Statcast fielding run value in the 86th percentile, which is excellent), so he would make a strong late-inning defensive replacement. His 2026 wRC+ of 102 is low for a full-time right fielder but more than adequate for a bench outfielder, and his career splits (110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, 75 against left-handed) even make him a late-game pinch-hit option. So finding a role for him if the Jays were to sign (say) Suzuki and Sato would not be an issue. Which brings us to Addison Barger. Barger was injured for most of 2026, but in 2025 he had a torrid first half, with a .261/.317/.506 batting line, a .245 ISO and a 124 wRC+. He slowed down in the second half but still managed a .172 ISO. So – potentially – exactly the kind of bat the Jays need in their lineup. And Barger will not reach arbitration until 2028, and will not be a free agent until 2031. The problem with Barger is that he is not really suited to be a bench player. He has a negative Outs Above Average at both of his primary positions – third base and right field – and his sprint speed is only average. And at his early stage of development (he has 755 career MLB plate appearances), limiting him to a bench role might never unlock his potential. So what could the Jays do with him? Right field will be (in my example) Suzuki or Sato. Third base, if 2026 is any indication, will belong to Kazuma Okamoto for the foreseeable future. The fourth outfielder is Lukes. As noted, the Jays’ production from left field was 24th in the majors in 2026. Right field was 16th. Most other positions were better, or are expected to be better in 2027 (think Brett Bateman and Guerrero). But second base was a definite problem. Toronto’s 1.2 fWAR was 21st in the majors, and it would have been even lower except for the 0.8 fWAR put up by Josh Smith and Charles McAdoo in limited time at the end of the season. So second base is an issue, and finding a spot for Barger is an issue. Too bad that Barger cannot play second base. Or can’t he? When Barger was playing in A-level ball, he was used extensively at second base. It was felt that his speed and athleticism were not sufficient for him to play shortstop at the major league level, and that second base was a viable option. He played 375 innings there over his minor league career. As Barger progressed through the Jays system, he was positioned increasingly at third base and right field (to take full advantage of his holy-cow-Batman 60+ grade arm). But his 2026 injury showed the danger of placing too much reliance on that arm. Playing second base – at least in 2027 – would decrease his dependence on that arm, which might be especially prudent in a year in which he is returning from injury. A further benefit of playing Barger at second base is that it would free up Clement for the utility role that he played so well in the past. Ernie on the bench makes it possible to pinch-hit for Andrés Giménez in late innings, or to insert his career +28 DRS at third base (+14 FRV) for Okamoto in late-game situations. The Bottom Line “Wasting” Barger’s arm at second base may be counterintuitive. But wasting him and his potential as a bench bat, or failing to pursue a Suzuki or Sato to hold right field open for Barger, could be the greater risk – and the greater waste. View the full article

To think about where Ethan Salas was a year ago to where he is now is almost impossible to imagine. But that only speaks to the special talent that is the 20-year-old catcher for the San Diego Padres. Entering last offseason, Salas had missed all but 10 games of the season for the Double-A San Antonio Missions due to a stress reaction in his low back. Missing all of that time, combined with struggles his previous year offensively with the High-A Fort Wayne TinCaps, caused him to tumble out of most top-100 prospect lists. Salas had been the No. 1 international prospect to sign in the 2023 class and made his pro debut in full-season ball as a 16-year-old (he turned 17 just two days later). He was as high as the No. 8 prospect in baseball entering the 2024 season. But the back injury in 2025 had some questioning whether he was rushed by the Padres or just overwhelmed by pro ball. In 2026, he answered that—resoundingly. Salas turned in a season to remember in the minors, first at Double-A San Antonio, then with the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas. Between the two stops, Salas put up a .296/.374/.448 slash line with 10 homers and 63 RBIs, all personal bests in his young career. He had a brief stint on the injured list with a minor oblique strain, then represented the Friars in the Futures Game for the second time. The Padres, in the midst of an intense battle for a postseason spot, ultimately called up Salas when rosters expanded on Sept. 1. From his first at-bat, when he flew out to the warning track in Cincinnati, through the Padres’ postseason run, Salas never looked overmatched. Sure, some of his at-bats didn’t look good, but he handled things extremely well. Catcher is a tough position to make a living at as a young player. Salas is the youngest big-league catcher since Ivan Rodriguez was 19 years, 309 days when he debuted in 1991 (Salas was 20 years, 93 days old for his first game). He was also the youngest catcher to play in MLB postseason history. Salas, known for his terrific defense, was named MLB Pipeline’s minor-league Defensive Player of the Year. Most of that was on display upon his call-up. While he didn’t have the playing time with the Padres to rank on Statcast, his pop time of 1.86 seconds was tremendous. However, that didn’t translate into cutting down baserunners. Opponents were 6-for-6 in stealing bases in the regular season and 2-for-2 in the postseason. But that only comprises a 12-game sample from the 20-year-old. Offensively, Salas was rather average, which is just fine considering his role and age. The left-handed hitter had a .256/.275/.462 slash line in 16 games during the regular season, including a two-homer game at Coors Field. He had an OPS+ of 101 (100 is considered average). He had an average exit velocity of 90.1 mph in the majors, maxing out at 108.3. His high at Triple-A this year was 108.4 mph. He shared time behind the plate with Freddy Fermin and Luis Campusano after his call-up. Fermin is a defensive specialist who is up for an NL Gold Glove but struggles hitting (.203/.274/.315, 65 OPS+), while Campusano made strides defensively but is more offense-first (.265/.363/.433, 122 OPS+). What makes Salas so enticing is that he should be excellent at the plate as well as behind it. There were glimpses of his offensive potential in September and even the postseason. The defense needs a little fine-tuning, which feels more like tightening the bolts instead of replacing the brakes. Salas, at least initially, won’t be a big home run hitter, but he will sting the ball to the gaps; he seemed to use more of the field as he moved up the ladder. His speed is also an asset and will be until his knees start to give out due to catching. His offensive production will already deepen the Padres' lineup entering 2027. Despite his age—or perhaps because of it—he was embraced by his teammates and he handled veteran pitchers in key games, including becoming Nick Pivetta's personal catcher. Salas is a lock for the Opening Day roster in 2027 and the No. 1 catcher moving forward. How the Padres decide to shake out their catching situation—they're certainly unlikely to go with three backstops for an entire regular season—will happen over the offseason. The guess here is that Campusano sticks and Fermin is traded. Because at this point, Salas is the real deal and deserves to be built around. At least, that's what he proved in 2026. View the full article

A 44-year drought will do a lot of things. Not appearing in the World Series in that time span has made the Milwaukee Brewers' 1982 team almost mythic. Sure, there are some good reasons for that, but it has been lonely at the top for that version of the Brew Crew. Thanks to the 2026 Brewers, the 1982 team has some company at the top of franchise lore. Due to the youth on the 2026 team, there is a lot unknown about how the careers of this year's team will turn out. There were four eventual Hall of Famers on the 1982 World Series roster, with another in Rollie Fingers, who was hurt. Regardless, let's take a spin around the roster for each team and see how they compare. (For positions, I am using the Game 7 lineup for the 1982 World Series and Game 4 of the 2026 NL Championship Series.) Catcher Ted Simmons (1982) vs. William Contreras (2026) Both are very strong defensively and pretty similar offensively, although Simmons didn't have a good year at the plate (.216/.262/.376) in his first year in Milwaukee and coming off his lone Silver Slugger season with the St. Louis Cardinals, the team that defeated the Brewers in the World Series. Contreras has had a couple of big hits and homers on this year's run. First Base Cecil Cooper (1982) vs. Jake Bauers (2026) Cooper had the second-best offensive season of his career, putting up a slash line of .313/.342/.528 with 32 homers and 121 RBIs, the second-highest total in MLB. Like Bauers, the NL Championship Series MVP, Cooper had a big hand in getting the Crew to the World Series with his go-ahead two-run single and memorable stay fair hand gesture in the final game of the AL Championship Series. Cooper has had the more distinctive career, but Bauers is certainly having a season that Brewers fans will remember. Second Base Jim Gantner (1982) vs. Brice Turang (2026) Both are left-handed hitters. Gantner was overshadowed on the team by his more famous teammates, but he was as productive as anyone. He had a .295/.335/.369 slash line with four homers and 43 RBIs, with his lack of power perhaps contributing to his lack of being in the spotlight. Brewers fans have always held Gumby in high regards and no one has worn his No. 17 since he retired following the 1992 season, although it hasn't been hung in the stadium rafters. Turang could win his second Gold Glove this season and had career highs in homers (21) and RBIs (100). Third Base Paul Molitor (1982) vs. David Hamilton (2026) The Ignitor had the best season of his Hall of Fame career. In addition to a .302/.366/.450 slash line, Molitor led MLB with 166 runs scored, while also hitting 19 homers with 71 RBIs and stealing 41 bases, the second-most in his career. He was the heartbeat of the team. Hamilton is a platoon player, sharing time at third with Joey Ortiz. Hamilton brings a speed element that can help disrupt a defense. Shortstop Robin Yount (1982) vs. Cooper Pratt (2026) It is probably fair to use Yount's nickname, The Kid, on Pratt as well, although the latter has a long way to go to achieve the former's status as a Hall of Famer. Yount is the most iconic player in Brewers history and 1982 was his best season as he won the first of his two AL MVP awards. Yount slashed .331/.379/.578, hitting 29 homers and driving in 114. He led the majors in hits (210), doubles (46) and total bases (367). Pratt came up in June and has played solid defense and been a bit surprising at the plate with a .281/.350/.368 slash line with three homers, 39 RBIs and 19 stolen bases. Left Field Ben Oglivie (1982) vs. Jackson Chourio (2026) Benji was a masher in 1982, hitting 34 homers and driving in 102. He also hit an AL-high 41 in 1980, but then slumped to 14 in 1981. Chourio is growing into a superstar. In just his third season, the 22-year-old put up the best numbers of his young career with a .291/.351/.487 slash line, with 25 homers, his most, and 75 RBIs. He also has a penchant for stepping up in the postseason, as evidenced by his two leadoff homers and walk-off single this year alone. Center Field Gorman Thomas (1982) vs. Garrett Mitchell (2026) On a team that was known as Harvey's Wallbangers, Stormin' Gorman was the biggest banger. Thomas bashed an MLB-high 39 homers while also driving in 112. Thomas finished third on the team in RBIs, but fifth in MLB. Remains a major fan favorite. Mitchell has overcome an injury history to stay healthy this year and put up a .262/.354/.416 slash line with 11 homers and 65 RBIs. He hit the go-ahead homer in the clinching Game 4 of the NLCS, the second game in a row he went deep. Right Field Charlie Moore (1982) vs. Sal Frelick (2026) Moore had started transitioning from a full-time catcher to a corner outfielder in 1981. He didn't provide much offensively (.254/.299/.360, six homers, 45 RBIs), but obviously had the arm to be a defensive presence in right. He led all outfielders with six double plays and had a .922 fielding percentage, best in the AL. Frelick has had his worst offensive season at .230/.295/.319 with four homers and 40 RBIs. He plays excellent defense and can be counted upon in a key situation to give you a quality at-bat. Frelick platoons with rookie Luis Lara. Designated Hitter Roy Howell (1982) vs. Christian Yelich (2026) With the DH in the AL and not in the NL (not until 2022), the DH at this stage of MLB history alternated years so the entire series was played under the same rules. In 1982, the DH was used. Roy Howell was the left-handed hitter in the platoon with Don Money. Howell had a .260/.305/.350 slash line with four homers and 38 RBIs in 98 games, while Money was at .284/.360/.531 with 16 homers and 55 RBIs in 96 games. This would be Money's next-to-last season in MLB. Yelich's Brewers status is built on his NL MVP season of 2018, his first with the team, and his runner-up finish the next year. He is now the first captain in team history, but he has shown a bit of a resurgence in the postseason after a disappointing regular season (.235/.315/.378, 12 HRs, 59 RBIs). Starting Pitching RH Pete Vuckovich, RH Don Sutton, LH Mike Caldwell, RH Moose Haas (1982) vs. RH Jacob Misiorowski, RH Logan Henderson, LH Robert Gasser The 1982 World Series rotation was a monster. Sutton would become a Hall of Famer and was the hired gun who came over from the Houston Astros at the trade deadline, while Vuckovich was a pure gamer and won 18 games. Caldwell was the staff horse with 258 innings and 12 complete games. Haas had the best FIP of any starter during the season at 3.30 and finished one strikeout behind Vuckovich's team-high 105. Those were all veterans who were well-established, while Misiorowski, Henderson and Gasser have a combined 96 career games in the regular season. Caldwell, Vuckovich and Haas just surpassed that in 1982 alone at 97. If Brandon Woodruff pitches in the World Series, it wouldn't be long, but it would be a nice sentimental move at the least. Bullpen RH Pete Ladd, LH Bob McClure, LH Jim Slaton, RH Dwight Bernard, RH Doc Medich (1982) vs. RH Trevor Megill, RH Abner Uribe, LH Aaron Ashby, LH JoJo Romero, LH DL Hall, RH Antonio Senzatela, LH Shane Drohan, RH Dustin May, RH Chad Patrick, LH Kyle Harrison (2026) With Fingers unavailable, Ladd served as the closer in the ALCS and picked up two saves, while McClure had the two saves in the World Series. The bullpen, with only five relievers used, covered 18 innings in the World Series, which will be a far cry if this year's Fall Classic goes the distance. Heck, Ashby has 12⅓ in eight team games himself. McClure, normally a starter, appeared in five of the seven World Series games, while Slaton was the only other one to appear in more than one. Bench OF Marshall Edwards, 3B Don Money, C Ned Yost (1982) vs. C Gary Sanchez, IF Joey Ortiz, 1B Andrew Vaughn, OF Luis Lara Other than the platoon at DH, the bench wasn't much of a factor in the World Series. Edwards, in his second MLB season, and Yost each appeared in just one game, both in the 13-1 Game 6 blowout loss. This year's bench will be used more as Ortiz platoons with Hamilton, who figures to get most of the playing time in the World Series due to a lack of left-handed starters for the Tampa Bay Rays. Manager Harvey Kuenn (1982) vs. Pat Murphy (2026) Two of the bigger characters to be on the Brewers' bench. Kuenn famously took over for Buck Rodgers when the Brewers were 23-24 at the beginning of June. The Crew went 72-43 under Kuenn (.626 winning percentage), who would only stick around one more season. Murphy just guided the Brewers to the best regular-season record in franchise history at 103-59. View the full article

Game Results: Tuesday, 10/13 | Salt River 6, Glendale 5 (10 innings) Wednesday, 10/14 | Salt River 3, Mesa 7 Thursday, 10/15 | Mesa 14, Salt River 9 (10 innings) Friday, 10/16 | Peoria 10, Salt River 0 Saturday, 10/17 | Salt River 5, Mesa 0 (7 innings) Monday, 10/19 | Glendale 2, Salt River 7 After a solid opening week where they finished 5-2, the Salt River Rafters cooled down a little in week two, going 3-3 in their six games and sit one game back of the lead in the standings at 8-5. They were on the giving and receiving end of a shutout in two of those games, both won and lost an extra inning affair in two others, and had to reschedule Monday’s contest against Mesa for their off day on Wednesday. The top performers of the week according to MLB.com did not feature any of the Twins prospects, but you would be hard-pressed to find a better single game performance than what one of them did in Thursday’s loss against the Mesa Solar Sox. Two of their hitters also carry OPS’s above 1.000 as of 10/19. OF Yasser Mercedes Week (4 games): 5-for-13, 3 R, 2 3B, 4 RBI, 4 BB, 6 K, 2 SB (2) Overall (through 10/19): .310/.421/.586 (1.007 OPS) Mercedes roamed the outfield for the Rafters in four of their six games included in this week’s report, spending at least one game in each of the three outfield positions. He continued to bat in the top or middle of the lineup as well. In Tuesday’s extra-inning win over Glendale he reached base four times, scored two runs, and stole two bases, finishing 1-for-2 with three walks. In Thursday’s extra-inning affair against Mesa he went 2-for-5 with a triple in the seventh that drove in a run to pull the Rafters within one in the seventh. He followed that up with an RBI single in the eighth to give Salt River the lead at the time. In Monday’s win over Glendale he added another triple in the bottom of the seventh inning that scored his Twins teammate for their seventh and final run of the game. He finished this one 2-for-3 and drove in two. IF Kyle DeBarge Week (4 games): 6-for-14, 6 R, 2B, HR (1), 4 RBI, 4 BB, 3 K, 2 SB (4) Overall (through 10/19): .355/.488/.581 (1.069 OPS) DeBarge appears to have earned his coaches’ trust, as he batted third in the lineup in three of his four games, and leadoff in the other. He served as the DH in two of them, then played second base and center field in the others. He put on a hitting clinic on Thursday, reaching base all five times he came to the plate. He drew a walk leading off the bottom of the first for the Rafters. An errant pickoff throw and passed ball put him on third, then he scored their first run on a single. His two-out single in the bottom of the second scored their second run of the game, then another RBI single in the fourth cut the Solar Sox lead to one, before he scored the tying run on a double from the next hitter. He added another single in the sixth before putting a bow on his game with a one-out double in the eighth. He then scored the go-ahead run before Mesa was to pull out the victory in the ninth and tenth innings. On Monday DeBarge again crossed home plate three times, and drove in two. Both of those RBI came in the bottom of the first inning as he hit his first home run in AFL play, it was just of the inside-the-park variety. LHP Cesar Lares Week (1 appearance): 2 IP, 1 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 1 K Overall (through 10/19): 0-0, 8.44 ERA, 7 BB, 5 K, 2.06 WHIP, .211 BAA (5 1/3 IP) Lares made a start for the Rafters in week one, but was used as a long-reliever in his lone appearance of week two. That came in Friday’s shutout loss to Peoria, where he came on to start the fourth inning with the score 4-0 Javelinas. It was 8-0 by the time he got out of the fifth inning. He walked the first three batters he faced, before giving up a two-run double, an RBI groundout, and a sac fly. Back out for the sixth he worked around a two-out walk, the fifth of his outing, by retiring all three other hitters including one on a strikeout. LHP Ross Dunn Week (1 start): 2 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 3 K Overall (through 10/19): 0-1, 14.54 ERA, 4 BB, 5 K, 3.23 WHIP, .455 BAA (4 1/3 IP) Dunn’s lone appearance came in Wednesday’s loss to Mesa, and it was as the starting pitcher for Salt River. He worked around multiple baserunners in the first by inducing an inning-ending double-play ball, then picked up a pair of strikeouts in the second. In things that will confuse you if you don’t pay enough attention to the play-by-play or AFL rules, he did not record the final out of the second inning (another Twins pitcher did), but was back on the mound to begin the third inning, where he recorded just one out (on a K) before loading the bases and ending his outing after six total outs. Those three runners would end up charged to him as the Solar Sox took a 4-1 lead after that. LHP Cleiber Maldonado Week (1 appearance): 2/3 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K Overall (through 10/19): 0-0, 3.86 ERA, 1 BB, 5 K, 1.71 WHIP, .273 BAA (2 1/3 IP) Maldonado saw action in Thursday’s loss to Mesa, inheriting a runner on first with one out in the top of the eighth and the score 8-7 Rafters. Unfortunately, the second pitch he threw was lined over the head of the center fielder for a triple to tie the game at eight, before he picked up a strikeout and a groundout to end the inning. LHP Jake Murray Week (1 appearance): 1 IP, 1 BB Overall (through 10/19): 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 BB, 1 K, 1.00 WHIP, .000 BAA (2 IP) Murray also made his one appearance on the week on Thursday, coming in to start the fourth inning with Salt River down 5-2. He walked the first batter he faced, but still pitched to only three hitters as he coaxed an inning-ending double-play ball after a flyout. He threw just nine pitches, with five of them going for strikes. RHP Brian Zeldin Week (2 appearances): 2/3 IP, 1 K Overall (through 10/19): 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP, .000 BAA, 0 BB, 2 K (1 1/3 IP) In trends I want to see continue just for the weird fun of it, Zeldin again made two pitching appearances on the week, with each of them only lasting for one out. In Wednesday’s loss to Mesa he was summoned in relief of Dunn for the final out of the bottom of the second inning. He got a ground ball out on his second pitch, and Dunn re-entered the game in the third. In Saturday’s revenge win over Mesa, he pitched in the bottom of the first inning, serving in the same exact role as Wednesday. He recorded the final out of the frame, this one via a strikeout, before the starting pitcher then re-entered the game to begin the second inning. OF Jacob McCombs Week (did not play): McCombs has yet to see the field for the Salt River Rafters this season, but it does appear he is with the team. Hopefully that means he will be able to take the field soon with his fellow prospects! C Enrique Jimenez Week (3 games): 0-for-6, RBI, 2 BB, 4 K Overall (through 10/19): .000/.250/.000 (.250 OPS) In the ever-growing category of “odd things that go on during the Arizona Fall League season,” Twins catcher Enrique Jimenez was added to the Rafters roster this week. He appeared in three games, serving as the first baseman, designated hitter, and came in as a substitute for the catcher in the other. While he didn’t pick up any hits, he did drive in a run on Thursday with a groundout and drew a walk in both of his other games. Please feel free to ask questions and discuss the Twins prospects playing in the AFL this week! View the full article

When you look at it from a collective standpoint, the Kansas City Royals’ season was a disappointment. They finished with a 69-93 record and last place in the division, after two consecutive seasons above .500. However, within the collective debacle, there were several interesting stories that deserve attention. That’s why I propose looking back in three pieces, in which I’ll present my ranking of the team’s best hitters, pitchers, and fielders during the season. That said, let’s get to our Top 3, starting with the Royals’ hitters of the year in 2026. #3: Carter Jensen, C Season Stats: .239/.323/.467, 27 HR, 81 RBI, 10.8 BB%, 28.3 K%, .228 ISO, .294 BABIP, 116 wRC+, -0.5 BsR, 3.7 fWAR I liked it when the Royals started using him as their leadoff hitter, but what motivated me most to follow Jensen’s season amid the team’s struggles was the sensation he created with his ability to hit home runs. I confess that, following the Royals, I often gave up, but I was always paying attention to Jensen at a certain time. Yes, I usually did so during one of his first at-bats in each game. And, of course, I kept waiting for his next bomb to open the scoring for Kansas City. The Royals established a franchise record with nine leadoff home runs, tying for sixth in the major leagues. Jensen hit six of them, the most in a single season in club history and one fewer than Joc Pederson (7), the American League leader. Jensen’s power was a sensation. He finished the season among the American League rookie leaders: he led the league in doubles (35) and extra-base hits (64), ranked second in RBI (81), and third in home runs (27), slugging (.467), walks (65), and total bases (246). He also ranked fifth in OPS (.790). Now, what surprised me most was a combination that isn’t usually common among power hitters. Jensen finished in the 85th percentile in Barrel%, but combined that ability to generate hard-hit balls with an interesting approach at the plate: he ranked in the 84th percentile in Chase% and the 73rd in BB%. At 23 years old, that plate discipline and his proven power are two of the main factors that can continue driving Jensen’s growth as a hitter. With his 27 home runs in 149 games, he surpassed Bob Hamelin (24 HR in 1994) to establish the Royals’ rookie home run record. At the same time, his 64 extra-base hits surpassed the 61 recorded by Hall of Famer Mike Piazza during his 1993 Rookie of the Year season, establishing the Major League record for the most extra-base hits by a rookie catcher (minimum of 50% of games played at catcher). #2: Jac Caglianone, RF Season Stats: .289/.340/.494, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 6.0 BB%, 26.0 K%, .205 ISO, .361 BABIP, 129 wRC+, 1.1 BsR, 2.6 fWAR Since we’re talking about Jensen, let’s start by remembering that he joined Caglianone (23 HR) to form the fifth pair of left-handed teammates in Royals history—on the sixth occasion—to hit at least 20 home runs each in a season. But, in a sense, Caglianone’s story in 2026 was different. His season had its ups and downs: he produced a 74 wRC+ in May, climbed to 184 in June, and fell back to 62 in July. When the first half of the season ended, he was hitting .260/.321/.461, with a .201 ISO, an excellent .335 BABIP, and a 115 wRC+. If you followed Jac for much of that first half, you know he was doing things that aren’t common for someone who was only in the second year of his career. That’s why, heading into the second half, I admit I was a little skeptical. Maybe the same happened to you. I never doubted his talent, but as the season progressed and at-bats accumulated, it’s not so easy to maintain the pace or even surpass it. Caglianone did it. He crushed it on the mound in the second half of the season, and although the Royals weren’t going anywhere and perhaps many people thought he didn’t have as much pressure competing on a losing team, he showed he was ready to take the next step. He did it by becoming an even more aggressive hitter, something that also surprised. His walk rate dropped from 7.2% to 3.9% after the All-Star break, but he produced a monstrous offensive line of .337/.373/.549, with a .922 OPS and a 153 wRC+ in 204 plate appearances. His finish to the season was unstoppable. Caglianone hit .411 (39-for-95) with 26 RBI in August and became the third player in franchise history to record a batting average of at least .410 and 25 RBI in the same month (minimum of 90 at-bats). He joined Hall of Famer George Brett (.430, 30 RBI), in August 1980, and Amos Otis (.413, 29 RBI), in September 1978. He also reached base safely in each of his first 17 games in August, including a career-best 13-game hitting streak from August 1-15. During that period, he recorded a .463 OBP, with 10 extra-base hits and 20 RBI. But that’s not the only reason I believe Caglianone ranked ahead of Jensen. He was also a much more productive hitter, with a 129 wRC+, ran the bases better, and had at-bat quality surpassed only by Witt Jr. #1: Bobby Witt Jr., SS Season Stats: .281/.359/.441, 18 HR, 54 RBI, 10.6 BB%, 17.2 K%, .159 ISO, .320 BABIP, 119 wRC+, 9.3 BsR, 7.0 fWAR Bobby was somewhat below the superstar level he showed in the previous two seasons. His slugging percentage fell below his .500 standard, and he finished with the lowest numbers of his career in home runs (18), RBI (54), and ISO (.159). Even so, he made a difference with his ability to contribute offensively, stay on base —he finished with the best walk rate of his career (10.6%)— and stand out thanks to his skill at running the bases. Even below several of his usual standards, that combination led him to record 7.0 fWAR and remain among the game’s elite. There’s not much to discuss: Witt Jr. remains one of the most complete players in baseball. He finished second in the major leagues with 7.0 fWAR, trailing only the Cubs’ Pete Crow-Armstrong (10.6). In the American League, he finished among the 2026 leaders in stolen bases (second, 45), doubles (tied for sixth, 33), hits (ninth, 157), runs scored (ninth, 94), and batting average (tied for ninth, .281). As usual, he also stood out for his defensive excellence. He led the American League with +24 Outs Above Average and, since his debut in 2022, his +65 OAA places him tied for fourth in the major leagues among players at all positions. View the full article

As the postseason comes to a crescendo with the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays facing off in the 2026 World Series, the Chicago Cubs' offseason shopping remains on pause. When the hot stove does begin to crackle, though, they have a lot of things to accomplish in what will likely be a short time. Their need for starting pitching is well-documented. One of the names the Cubs will have some interest in is Japanese righty Kaima Taira. I profiled Taira the other day, highlighting his fit with the organization, but the portly right-handed pitcher isn't the only big name who will be headed Stateside. Teruaki Sato, one of Japan's leading home run hitters in 2026, will also be posted by his Nippon Professional Baseball club, the Hanshin Tigers, according to multiple reports. Will the Cubs be involved in Sato's free agency? Today, we'll take a deep dive into his profile: what he does well, what he does poorly, and whether or not there's a fit between the two sides. Teruaki Sato: The Positives No conversation about Teruaki Sato can omit his prodigious power. The left-handed slugger has mashed 163 home runs over the course of six years, which is about a 27-home run average, but that doesn't do him justice. First, of those 163 dongs, a whopping 79 have come in the last two seasons. Second, NPB is currently in the midst of a "dead ball era", which makes his power outburst even more impressive. There's really little debate over how impressive his power has been. It would be a mistake to compare Sato to his MLB counterparts right now, because the makeup of the Japanese top league is very different from the American one. Not only are they experiencing a dead ball, but the velocity of NPB pitchers just isn't where MLB pitching is. Instead, comparing Sato to countryman Munataki Murakami's last (full) season in Japan can give us the proper context for his power. In Murakami's last complete season (2025 was injury shortened), the left-handed hitter crushed 33 home runs in 610 plate appearances. Sato hit 39 this year, in 100 fewer trips. Not only did he out-homer Murakami, but the Tigers' star third baseman had a better hard-hit rate, while hitting the ball on the ground less often. His power should play in the American majors, too. While many hitters struggle against a specific type of pitch, Sato crushed every type of pitch last season. His worst slugging average was against breaking balls, but he still had an above-average OPS+ against them. His OPS+ against fastballs was 260 and he had a 186 OPS+ against offspeed stuff. This makes for a more well-rounded hitter at the plate, even if we can safely guess that not all of that will hold as the heat on the fastballs he sees is turned up significantly. One reason for the prodigious power is that he has a really clean, mechanical swing. There aren't a lot of moving parts. He's upright, takes a small leg kick and shows off a swing that has significant lift. He also pulls the ball at a very high clip. This results in loud contact to the pull side in the air. It's a perfect storm for home runs, and he uses it to great effect. Another strong aspect of Sato's game is that he's fairly athletic. No one will confuse him with Pete Crow-Armstrong on the bases, but he graded out well in advanced baserunning data. This should allow him to remain a viable defender for a while. He isn't likely to steal 20 bags against MLB pitchers (he didn't even do that in NPB), but he probably won't be a negative on the bases, giving him a bit higher of a floor than either Murakami or another recent import, Kazuma Okamoto. Defensively, Sato has some versatility, in that he's played both third base and the corner outfield extensively in Japan, logging 593 games at the hot corner and 269 in the outfield. This will give his new team some choices about where to play him. Teruaki Sato: The Negatives While Sato may have seemingly super-human power potential, the slugging comes with the downside that many power hitters have: low contact rates. Sato is a free swinger. He swings a lot, both in and outside of the zone. He also has a tendency to miss a lot, both in and out of the zone. This gives evaluators pause on what to make of the power. It's great if you can hit the ball a mile, but to do that, you actually have to hit the ball, and how often Sato will do that against MLB pitching is easily the biggest question mark around his game. Sato isn't the first Japanese hitter to face these questions recently. Murakami faced similar questions last offseason. All he did was post a 125 wRC+ and smack 35 home runs in his first season, proving that these questions may have been premature. While this may signal that high-strikeout hitters can survive, though, I'm not sure Sato has the same qualities that Murakami does to help him mitigate that flaw. It's true that Murakami had (and still has—he struck out over 35% of the time in 2026) contact issues, but he was much more a discerning hitter, walking almost two times more than Sato in their final NPB seasons. He accomplished this with a 23.6% chase rate in 2025, whereas Sato was nearly 10% higher. The White Sox first baseman walked 16.6% of the time to support his slugging in 2026, something we can't expect Sato to accomplish. Big-league pitchers are very good at exploiting weaknesses, and a high-swing, high-chase hitter is one who will get themselves out. Another issue is that while Sato feasted on all pitches, the whiff rate he showed specifically on fastballs should give pause. A 31.8% whiff rate on fastballs is a real issue. MLB-average whiff rate on fastballs last year was 19.1% to begin with. Murakami, our point of comparison for Sato, lead Major League Baseball with a 37.9% whiff rate on fastballs last year; by far and away the worst in this regard. In his final two seasons in Japan, however, Murakami whiffed 29.9% of heaters in 2024 and 27,1% in 2025. Put in that context, there is a legitimate fear that Sato take the mantle in this data point when he comes over. Would it be shocking to see that number climb to 40%? Looking at his heatmap, pitchers tend to throw fastballs up and out on the NPB star. With a swing that is clearly geared for lift, Sato struggles to get his bat path into an elevated position. This is pretty common place for hitters with his swing path. It's great that he crushes fastballs, but learning to stay away from these pitches will be a point of emphasis for him as he comes to America. For Sato to truly feast, he's going to likely have to make meaningful approach changes. His overall zone contact rates aren't the biggest red flag as he made contact in the zone at about 82%. Where he gets in trouble is that he swings at over half the pitches he sees. Against even better pitching he's got to learn to be far more choosey. But he's going to have to make these adjustments immediately against some of the best pitchers in the world. It's possible, but no easy task. Defensively, it's great that Sato can play multiple positions, but he's really not a good third baseman. He's considered worse on the dirt than Kazuma Okamoto. Okamoto, who logged 1,200 innings at the hot corner in 2026 graded out as a -1 DRS and a 0 OAA. That's not bad, but according to FanGraphs, it provided zero overall defensive value. It means that Sato isn't likely going to come Stateside and be a dynamic player with many ways to affect the game. This puts even more weight on the bat to be the carrying tool. Are Teruaki Sato and the Chicago Cubs a Good Fit? Positionally, the Chicago Cubs have multiple openings that Sato could slide right into. With the organization set to see Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki leave via free agency this winter, Sato would have little internal competition at either corner position right off the bat. Currently, the only two players slotted into those spots are youngsters Matt Shaw and Pedro Ramirez and both have bats that are more suited for the infield. The NPB slugger would have little issue grabbing a spot in that regards, Where things begin to fall apart is in the type of hitters the Cubs' have gravitated towards under Jed Hoyer. They're not entirely immune to free swingers; Nico Hoerner (who was just awarded a six-year extension) and Pete Crow-Armstrong certainly like to swing the bat. They aren't afraid of high-swing prospects either; the aforementioned Shaw and Ramirez both like to swing. They even drafted two players in Caden Sorrell and Myles Bailey who have significant swing and miss in their game during the 2026 draft. But each of these hitters comes with something that Sato doesn't; they either are high-walk or high-contact hitters. Sato does not appear to be either of those things. The Cubs really value hitters who crush fastballs, which once again makes Sato's profile a tricky one to square away with the organization. It's true that the outfielder absolutely kills the pitch, something that would interest the third best team (based on wOBA) in baseball on the surface. However, the Cubs also had the third lowest whiff% on fastballs in 2026. Will they decide his whiff issues are too great? Or that they can be the change needed in his game? Chicago is also entering a season of a lot of turnover. Needing to rebuild most of their rotation, as well as multiple needs positionally, means the Cubs' will have to do a lot of shopping this year. While I'd love to believe the organization was willing to join the $300 million club what Tom Ricketts is actually willing to spend is pretty murky. Do the Cubs just go back to the Luxury Tax and spend $70 million this offseason? Do they blow through the first threshold and spend over $100 million? What does the CBA do to any of this? All of these are unknowns as of now. Making things even tougher is pinpointing what Sato will make. On one hand he offers better power and positional versatility that Murakami but significantly worse approach numbers and is older. He's younger than Okamoto, has more power but a more limited floor and questions about where he belongs on defense. A good bet is a shorter-deal (four or less, possibly an opt out) with around $15-$20m on average, but the market this offseason is pretty thin on offense meaning it could go north of that estimation, both in years and salary. If the Cubs are closer to the luxury tax, spending that on a risky corner outfielder feels even less likely. I don't want to sound too negative on Sato; he has some really loud power, the capability to be a pretty good corner outfielder and enough athleticism and age in his profile to find a good deal of upside. But there's enough risk that it feels unlikely that the Chicago Cubs of all teams will use what resources they have to win a bidding war on a player that doesn't fit their normal profile. The Cubs feel even less likely considering how thin the market is and how few middle of the order hitters are available. If the Cubs do add an NPB star, Kaima Taira feels like a more likely option both in terms of fit and finish than Teruaki Sato, but it also wouldn't be crazy to see the team jump in on him, either, if the market doesn't materialize or they think they can work around some of the warts. Regardless of where he sends up, Sato will likely hit a bunch of home runs, the question is really going to be whether or not he strikeouts out too much that the power won't matter. Would you like the look of Teruaki Sato in Cubs pinstripes? Or do you think he'll simply strikeout too much for it to be a good idea? Let us know in the comment section below! View the full article

As the postseason comes to a crescendo with the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays facing off in the 2026 World Series, the Chicago Cubs' offseason shopping remains on pause. When the hot stove does begin to crackle, though, they have a lot of things to accomplish in what will likely be a short time. Their need for starting pitching is well-documented. One of the names the Cubs will have some interest in is Japanese righty Kaima Taira. I profiled Taira the other day, highlighting his fit with the organization, but the portly right-handed pitcher isn't the only big name who will be headed Stateside. Teruaki Sato, one of Japan's leading home run hitters in 2026, will also be posted by his Nippon Professional Baseball club, the Hanshin Tigers, according to multiple reports. Will the Cubs be involved in Sato's free agency? Today, we'll take a deep dive into his profile: what he does well, what he does poorly, and whether or not there's a fit between the two sides. Teruaki Sato: The Positives No conversation about Teruaki Sato can omit his prodigious power. The left-handed slugger has mashed 163 home runs over the course of six years, which is about a 27-home run average, but that doesn't do him justice. First, of those 163 dongs, a whopping 79 have come in the last two seasons. Second, NPB is currently in the midst of a "dead ball era", which makes his power outburst even more impressive. There's really little debate over how impressive his power has been. It would be a mistake to compare Sato to his MLB counterparts right now, because the makeup of the Japanese top league is very different from the American one. Not only are they experiencing a dead ball, but the velocity of NPB pitchers just isn't where MLB pitching is. Instead, comparing Sato to countryman Munataki Murakami's last (full) season in Japan can give us the proper context for his power. In Murakami's last complete season (2025 was injury shortened), the left-handed hitter crushed 33 home runs in 610 plate appearances. Sato hit 39 this year, in 100 fewer trips. Not only did he out-homer Murakami, but the Tigers' star third baseman had a better hard-hit rate, while hitting the ball on the ground less often. His power should play in the American majors, too. While many hitters struggle against a specific type of pitch, Sato crushed every type of pitch last season. His worst slugging average was against breaking balls, but he still had an above-average OPS+ against them. His OPS+ against fastballs was 260 and he had a 186 OPS+ against offspeed stuff. This makes for a more well-rounded hitter at the plate, even if we can safely guess that not all of that will hold as the heat on the fastballs he sees is turned up significantly. One reason for the prodigious power is that he has a really clean, mechanical swing. There aren't a lot of moving parts. He's upright, takes a small leg kick and shows off a swing that has significant lift. He also pulls the ball at a very high clip. This results in loud contact to the pull side in the air. It's a perfect storm for home runs, and he uses it to great effect. Another strong aspect of Sato's game is that he's fairly athletic. No one will confuse him with Pete Crow-Armstrong on the bases, but he graded out well in advanced baserunning data. This should allow him to remain a viable defender for a while. He isn't likely to steal 20 bags against MLB pitchers (he didn't even do that in NPB), but he probably won't be a negative on the bases, giving him a bit higher of a floor than either Murakami or another recent import, Kazuma Okamoto. Defensively, Sato has some versatility, in that he's played both third base and the corner outfield extensively in Japan, logging 593 games at the hot corner and 269 in the outfield. This will give his new team some choices about where to play him. Teruaki Sato: The Negatives While Sato may have seemingly super-human power potential, the slugging comes with the downside that many power hitters have: low contact rates. Sato is a free swinger. He swings a lot, both in and outside of the zone. He also has a tendency to miss a lot, both in and out of the zone. This gives evaluators pause on what to make of the power. It's great if you can hit the ball a mile, but to do that, you actually have to hit the ball, and how often Sato will do that against MLB pitching is easily the biggest question mark around his game. Sato isn't the first Japanese hitter to face these questions recently. Murakami faced similar questions last offseason. All he did was post a 125 wRC+ and smack 35 home runs in his first season, proving that these questions may have been premature. While this may signal that high-strikeout hitters can survive, though, I'm not sure Sato has the same qualities that Murakami does to help him mitigate that flaw. It's true that Murakami had (and still has—he struck out over 35% of the time in 2026) contact issues, but he was much more a discerning hitter, walking almost two times more than Sato in their final NPB seasons. He accomplished this with a 23.6% chase rate in 2025, whereas Sato was nearly 10% higher. The White Sox first baseman walked 16.6% of the time to support his slugging in 2026, something we can't expect Sato to accomplish. Big-league pitchers are very good at exploiting weaknesses, and a high-swing, high-chase hitter is one who will get themselves out. Another issue is that while Sato feasted on all pitches, the whiff rate he showed on fastballs is worrisome. A 31.8% whiff rate on fastballs is a real issue. In MLB, the average whiff rate on fastballs in 2026 was 19.1%. Murakami, our point of comparison for Sato, led the league with a 37.9% mark. In his final two seasons in Japan, however, Murakami whiffed at 29.9% of heaters in 2024 and 27,1% in 2025. There's a legitimate fear that Sato swings through so many heaters that he can't access his power in the States. Looking at his heatmap, pitchers tend to throw fastballs up and out on the NPB star. With a swing that is clearly geared for loft, Sato struggles to get his bat to those offerings. This is pretty commonplace for hitters with his swing path. It's great that he crushes fastballs, but learning to stay away from these pitches will be a point of emphasis for him as he comes to America. For Sato to truly feast, he's going to have to make meaningful approach changes. His overall zone contact rates aren't the biggest red flag; he made contact in the zone at about 82%. Where he gets in trouble is that he swings at over half the pitches he sees. Against even better pitching, he's got to learn to be far more choosy. But he's going to have to make these adjustments immediately against some of the best pitchers in the world. It's possible, but no easy task, especially for a guy about to turn 28 years old. Defensively, it's great that Sato can play multiple positions, but he's really not a good third baseman. He's considered worse on the dirt than Kazuma Okamoto. Okamoto, who logged 1,200 innings at the hot corner in 2026, graded out as a -1 DRS and a 0 OAA. That's not bad, but it means that Sato isn't going to come Stateside and be a dynamic player with many ways to affect the game. This puts even more weight on the bat to be the carrying tool. Are Teruaki Sato and the Chicago Cubs a Good Fit? Positionally, the Chicago Cubs have multiple openings that Sato could slide right into. With the organization set to see Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki leave via free agency this winter, Sato would have little internal competition at either corner outfield position. Currently, the only two players slotted into those spots are youngsters Matt Shaw and Pedro Ramirez, who both have bats that are more suited for the infield. Where things begin to fall apart is in the type of hitters the Cubs have gravitated toward under Jed Hoyer. They're not entirely against free swingers. Nico Hoerner (who was just awarded a six-year extension) and Pete Crow-Armstrong certainly like to swing the bat. They aren't afraid of high-swing prospects either; the aforementioned Shaw and Ramirez both like to swing. They even drafted two players (in Caden Sorrell and Myles Bailey) who have significant swing-and-miss in their game during the 2026 draft. But each of these hitters comes with something that Sato doesn't: they either are high-walk or high-contact hitters. Sato does not appear to be either of those things. The Cubs really value hitters who crush fastballs, which once again makes Sato's profile a tricky one to square with the organization's philosophy. It's true that the outfielder absolutely kills the pitch. However, the Cubs also had the third-lowest whiff rate on fastballs in 2026. Will they decide his whiff issues are too great? Or that they can be the change needed in his game? Chicago is also entering a season of a lot of turnover. Needing to rebuild most of their rotation (as well as multiple needs positionally) means the Cubs will have to do a lot of shopping this year. While I'd love to believe the organization was willing to join the $300-million club, what Tom Ricketts is actually willing to spend is pretty murky. Do the Cubs just go back to the first luxury-tax line and spend $70 million this offseason? Do they blow through the first threshold and spend over $100 million? What does the CBA do to any of this? All of these are unknowns as of now. Making things even tougher is pinpointing what Sato will make. On one hand, he offers better power and positional versatility that Murakami, but he has significantly worse approach numbers and is older. He's younger than Okamoto, has more power but a lower floor, and faces more questions about where he belongs on defense. A good bet is a shorter deal (four years or fewer, possibly an opt out) with around $15-20 million as an annual average value, but the market this offseason is pretty thin on offense, meaning it could go north of that estimate, both in years and salary. If the Cubs aren't planning to go nuts with the checkbook, it gets hard to justify the risk of Sato in a hurry. I don't want to sound too negative on Sato. He has some really loud power, the capability to be a pretty good corner outfielder, and enough athleticism to find a good deal of upside. But there's enough risk that it feels unlikely that the Chicago Cubs will use what resources they have to win a bidding war on a player who doesn't fit their normal profile. If the Cubs do add an NPB star, Taira feels like a more likely option. Regardless of where he sends up, Sato will probably hit a bunch of home runs. The question is really going to be what happens in his other 500 plate appearances. Would you like the look of Teruaki Sato in Cubs pinstripes? Or do you think he'll simply strike out too much for it to be a good idea? Let us know in the comment section below! View the full article

Realistically, there's very little chance that Ryan Jeffers remains with the Minnesota Twins in 2027. The team will get to decide, shortly after the end of the World Series, whether to extend him the qualifying offer (worth just over $23 million for one year), but even if they do, he might well reject it and seek a multi-year deal elsewhere. The way the organization values and deploys catchers makes a big expenditure to keep Jeffers unlikely. Watching Jeffers leave will be a somber experience for Twins Territory. The second-round draft pick developed into one of baseball’s best offensive catchers. He has also become a beloved personality for fans and media. These plus traits are why the Twins could be priced out of a reunion with the 29-year-old. Immense optimism surrounds the position for the team in the long term, with top prospect Vahn Lackey succeeding Jeffers as the club’s backstop as soon as next summer. Still, the club will need to bridge the gap between the Jeffers and Lackey Eras early next season, leaving team decision-makers in a bind. Victor Caratini is the most obvious bridge. He's entering the second half of a two-year, $14-million deal signed last offseason. The 33-year-old hit .220/.312/.315 with seven home runs and a 79 wRC+ over 382 plate appearances in 2026. He was also a plus receiver behind the plate, sporting plus blocking and framing metrics, while netting 2.2 Runs Above Average on challenges. However, he was one of the weakest backstops in baseball against the running game, with an abysmal 2.04-second average pop time that led to six fewer runners being caught than expected. Jeffers was similarly atrocious at stopping runners. It often felt like basestealers could run freely against the Twins. (Indeed, only two teams allowed more steals, and no team caught a lower percentage of runners in the attempt.) This was one of Minnesota’s more glaring shortcomings last season, functioning as a significant hindrance to the club’s ability to suppress runs. Caratini has never been able to effectively suppress base-stealing efforts. There’s no reason to believe he will suddenly be able to in 2027. As noted earlier, he’s also an offensive liability, but given his plus receiving skills, knack for reversing balls into strikes, and (arguably most importantly) $7-million price tag, the switch-hitting veteran is all but guaranteed to be the club’s primary catcher next Opening Day. Caratini catching four or five days a week is not ideal, particularly if he hits at a rate like last season's. (But things could be worse. At least they’re not paying J.T. Realmuto $15 million next season, right?) As things stand, Caratini will soon be the only catcher on Minnesota’s 40-man roster. Alex Jackson is still with the organization and under team control next season, but only if they take the proactive step of putting him back on the 40-man by the end of this month. I’d be content with the club entering next season with Jackson as Caratini’s backup. He performed well at the plate in 2026, hitting .304/.342/.406 (good for a 112 wRC+) over 73 plate appearances. The 30-year-old also had one of the best pop times last season, resulting in him being far better at suppressing the run game than Jeffers and Caratini. Caratini is far better at receiving, framing, and challenging than Jackson is. In theory, the tandem could function as counterbalances for one another. The damage of Caratini’s inability to suppress base runners is mitigated by that being Jackson’s strength, and vice versa. Unfortunately, that’s not how the sport works, in practice. Starting Caratini only against teams who don't run isn't realistic, and the Twins don't have enough pitchers who can live with a lesser receiver to lean on Jackson more often. (Nor, in all likelihood, would Jackson hit as well in a more regular, exposed role.) Caratini’s and Jackson’s shortcomings will remain on display until Lackey (an elite all-around catcher) takes over the position full-time. They're a tolerable stopgap, but the team could still aim higher. The only desirable non-Jeffers impending free agent catchers are Carson Kelly and Tyler Stephenson. Kelly is a far better option, but he will likely demand a multi-year contract, similar to what Caratini got last season. Stephenson is a better hitter than Caratini and Jackson and might be available on a one-year deal, or at least a low-risk, high-reward two-year pact. However, he's arguably the worst defender of the four, diminishing the impact of his just-above-average bat. I wouldn’t be against Minnesota pairing Stephenson with Caratini. He or Kelly could come in on a two-year deal and be the bridge's bridge, as it were, working in tandem with Caratini for 2027 and alongside Lackey in 2028, when Caratini's contract is up. Austin Hedges, James McCann, and Kyle Higashioka are also likely to be available, but the Twins might as well roll with Jackson, if they're considering any of those options. Five years after being the No. 1 overall pick in the MLB Draft, Pirates catcher Henry Davis could be available via trade. Of course, he has a Derek Shelton connection, having played under him for three seasons in Pittsburgh. Davis has yet to meet expectations at the plate, generating a career 55 wRC+ over 958 plate appearances. In fact, 2026 was his first positive-fWAR season in the majors, generating 0.6. The driving factor in his progression was that the 27-year-old was one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, being a plus receiver and near-elite run game suppressor. (He was slightly below-average at challenging.) His polished defensive skills make him an interesting target who could benefit from a change of scenery. Under team control until the end of the 2029 season, Davis could also tandem with Lackey, solidifying the position for years to come. The Twins probably wouldn’t have to surrender much prospect capital to acquire Davis, given his lackluster performance at the plate. Pittsburgh appears set at the position long-term, with Rafael Flores Jr. and Endy Rodriguez. Between veteran options in Kelly, Stephenson, Hedges, McCann, and Higashioka or team-controlled trade candidates in Davis, Luis Torrens, Carlos Narváez, or Austin Wells (especially if Jeffers signs with the Yankees), there are plenty of external options Minnesota could acquire. The Twins would be wise to invest in a higher-upside partner for Caratini than Jackson. Twins Territory should prepare for Caratini to make the bulk of starts behind the plate until Lackey’s highly-anticipated arrival. Maybe the wait will make the payoff a bit sweeter. View the full article

In the system's inaugural season, no catcher has used ABS challenges more than William Contreras. Contreras challenged 185 calls during the regular season, leading all catchers by 49. The difference between Contreras's challenge total and that of second-place Tyler Stephenson was greater than that between Stephenson and 23rd-place Cal Raleigh. According to Statcast, he challenged 43 more times than the average catcher would have against the same pitches. Only Victor Caratini challenged a greater number of pitches compared to the expected number. It helped that the Brewers typically deferred their challenges to Contreras. Milwaukee hitters challenged just 13% of possible overturns, the lowest rate of any offense. When a catcher has access to both of his team’s challenges, he can challenge more aggressively, and it helps more than it hurts. An incorrect challenge won’t stop him from using a second one at the right moment, so turning a ball into a strike on the next attempt is worth more than the small loss of burning that first challenge. Contreras gained more fractions of a run than expected from challenges in all but one month this year. Still, his approach bordered on mindless aggressiveness for much of the summer. The league success rate on catcher challenges was 58%, but between June and August, Contreras’s was just 49%. In late June, he lost eight consecutive challenges and 14 of 15, and his August success rate bottomed out at 46%. On the verge of costing his team runs with challenges, another catcher might become more conservative, but that’s not how Contreras is wired. He plays the game fiercely, with a relentless drive to be the best at everything. Instead of backing off, he started challenging even more. The difference is that he became opportunistic. That turned Contreras into one of the most valuable challengers in September and into the postseason. Month Challenges Won% % Overturn Runs Gained Net Runs Above Avg March/April 34 53% 35% 0.1 May 33 61% 46% 0.7 June 33 48% 39% -0.2 July 23 52% 40% 0.2 August 26 46% 50% 0.2 September 36 75% 57% 0.9 October 20 60% 61% 0.5 Among catchers with at least five postseason overturn opportunities, Contreras and Liam Hicks are tied for the most net runs above average. He’s second to J.T. Realmuto in percentage of possible overturns challenged. Contreras has also gained two inning-ending strikeouts on challenges. He turned things around by tightening his radius. In August, Contreras challenged seven pitches more than one inch outside the strike zone. In September, he only challenged one. In the postseason, he’s challenged none. Even when home-plate umpire Lance Barrett had 12 calls challenged in Game 2 of the NLDS, Contreras showed restraint. He won three of four challenges, only losing on a first-pitch ball to Xander Bogaerts in the eighth inning that missed by half an inch. Contreras has also become more disciplined at the plate. He’s cut his chase rate from 28.3% in the regular season to 25.7% in October, boosting his walk rate from 9.5% to 14.3%. Just as being opportunistic has helped him enforce the strike zone, it’s also made him the Brewers’ best postseason hitter. Contreras leads the club with three home runs and a 212 wRC+ in October, spearheading the playoff power surge that brought the team to the World Series. That’s been more than enough to mask his remaining shortcomings. Contreras has still been a poor framer and blocker in the postseason, but October has unleashed a sharper version of him. He willed the Brewers to a pennant with his bat, and he's started helping his pitchers on the margins when it matters most. Poor ABS use was one of Milwaukee's few glaring weaknesses entering the postseason, but Contreras fixed his side of it when it mattered most. View the full article

It is difficult to forget the recent image Jarren Duran left behind, being completely shut down by the New York Yankees pitchers for the second consecutive year in the Wild Card Series. His presence in the last two postseasons with the Boston Red Sox has been disappointing, finishing 1-for-14 with five strikeouts. Look, I like Duran, and we all know that, given his tools, he can be a very useful player, but the problem here is that since his breakout season in 2024, he has declined every year. Just look at some of his percentile rankings over the past three years. He is still an elite runner and a fielder who could once again outperform the average player, but in batting value, he has fallen from the 96th percentile to the 1st. Yes, Duran just finished his second 20-20 season in the last three years. But in 2026, he finished with the worst offensive line of his entire career, batting .207/.266/.361, with just a 69 wRC+ and .627 OPS. His fWAR of 0.5 is so much worse than 2024 that you might as well be talking about two different players. The decline in his impact on the game in terms of consistency was too great. His strikeout rate fell to the worst mark of his career in qualified seasons, at 27.1%, which was combined with his worst regression in BABIP (.252), falling below his .300 standard for the first time. The problem with his slugging comes from the fact that Duran has not been able to produce the same amount of extra-base hits, especially doubles and triples, as in his previous two campaigns, like when he led the league with 48 doubles and 14 triples in 2024. Last year, he again surpassed 40 doubles and led the league once more with 13 triples. This year, he hit just 15 doubles and five triples, and it is clear that the problem was not just his ability to put the ball in play. Duran maintained elite bat speed, continued to be the same hitter with high chase and whiff rates, and struggled against left-handed pitchers. None of that is new. His ability to generate hard-hit balls did not completely collapse either, finishing in the 60th percentile in Barrel%. So, what made a notable difference was the results of his balls in play. Duran recorded the worst xBA (.273) and xSLG (.388) marks of his career, and he was unable to compensate for part of the decline in his on-base percentage because he finished with the second-worst walk rate of his career (6.7). At this point, breaking pitches and off-speed pitches were responsible for most of Duran’s regression. His whiff rate exceeded 38.0% against both pitch groups, but when he hit them, the result was just as worse, finishing with just a .199 xBA against breaking pitches and .211 against changeups. In contrast, Duran was lethal against fastballs, producing 14 of his 20 home runs and a .479 xSLG. As you can see in this graph, Duran was pretty good at crushing pitches down the middle and in the upper third of the strike zone and, in general, when he managed to pull any pitch, his production rose to a 159 wRC+. However, his reduced hot zone against the mix of breaking balls and changeups can be seen in the lower and outside part of the zone, far from his best contact point. The power profile Duran offers has always been interesting, but his great ability to impact the game comes with his speed. So, a runner with his skills definitely needs to be more consistent at getting on base, especially in a Red Sox lineup that does not rely on power. What I enjoy most about the conversation surrounding Duran’s 20-20 season, or any other player’s, is not exactly the numbers. Hitting home runs and stealing bases at that level is not easy at all, but doing it in situations that truly add greater value to the probability of winning also makes a difference in the game. In Duran’s case, his 20-20 was really more like a solid 15-15, as he managed to produce 16 home runs that positively impacted the scoreboard for the Red Sox. He hit seven home runs with the game tied, four when the team had a lead of two runs or fewer, and the same number when they were trailing by three runs or fewer. Something similar happened with his stolen bases, recording 15 in situations when the team was tied, or trailing or leading by a margin of three runs. If he can right the ship in any of these regards—more extra-base hits, better production against breaking balls and off-speed pitches, or performance in clutch moments—Duran can still be a valuable piece of the Red Sox. But when everything comes together like it did in 2026, it's a lot easier to find the flaws in his game. View the full article

As the off-season progresses, the Mets will be forced to clear some roster space to make way for the December 9 Rule 5 Draft, to which a lot of their valued minor league veterans will be exposed if not added to the roster. But first, a quicky transaction the Mets pulled off a week ago. Transactions, 10/14/2026 COMING Signed as International Amateur Free Agent out of Colombia, Projected for DSL Relief Pitchers Randy Gutierrez R/R DoB: 2009-02-16 High Level: MLB (2024) While Colombia (Cartagena, in fact) is hardly the most exotic of locales, it's always nice to see a the Mets scouting eyes cast beyond the usual sources for talent. Rumors of Randy Gutierrez signing with the Mets organization had only surfaced a week before, and in fact, he had previously been linked to the Yankees. So extra bonus points whenever the Mets bring in somebody who the Yankees had been keen on. The really special thing about this signing, however, isn't that he's Colombian, and that he spurned the Yankees. The really cool thing is that, when he signed (as depicted in the photo at left), he or his people wanted to capture the moment for posterity on their own terms, so he (or his people) placed a phone in front of him to get a photo, video, or livestream going. But he needed to prop that phone up, and in the Mets foreign office, the foreign scouting execs looked around for a prop, and grabbed the first thing they could find. A Jerry Koosman bobblehead doll. Just look at Little Jerry getting his faced smooshed by 21st Century Technology the young and vibrant version of him he can scarcely conceive, let alone understand. As adorable as it is, it's just great to see a kid born in 2009, who could conceivably be pitching for the Mets in the 2040s linked to a player who debuted for the team in 1968. May the world spin on, and may Mets alwas be a part of it. Back to Rule 5 action. Among the highest-profile players who have to be added or exposed are: Ryan Clifford, who had a stinky-poo year at AAA, but remains a top power prospect for the team, ranked 14th-best prospect in the system by MLB.com. Gary Gill Hill, a New Rochelle native and one of three prospects the Mets received in the Freddy Peralta deal, who reached AAA as he showed modest improvement in the limited time he had with the Mets after the trade. Kevin Parada, who has lost most of the shine that made the Mets pick him in 2022, but that first-round brand and a noticeable uptick in 100 AAA plate appearances this season still might be enough to make him pop up on the radar of other teams; also made more vulnerable in that a second catcher is the kind of guy that teams like to grab in the draft. Jacob Reimer, compact guy who backslid a little in AA with difficulty hitting offspeed pitches, but still one of the team's top 10 prospects, and likely to be protected. Jefferson Rojas, the team's biggest get at the trade deadline, acquired from the Cubs in the Clay Holmes deal, and a virtual certainty to be protected, especially after elevating his game in both Binghamton and Syracuse after the trade, as well as the Caribbean, where he is currently tearing up the Dominican Summer League. Chris Suero, a slugging corner guy who also catches, who hit .201 this year, but with beaucoup power, making it an interesting proposition whether they protect him or Parada. Marco Vargas, an on-basey utility infielder, who has gotten as high as 53 games at AA last season as a 21 -year-old, is not a top prospect but could be a solid steal for a team with a hole in the infield and not looking at a particularly competitive 2027. Jack Wenninger, a starter with a healthy arm who watched everybody but himself get a shot in 2026, despite spending the whole season at AAA, and being routinely listed in the top 10 team prospectos. Rojas is a near certainty to be added. The others there, have varying likelihoods. Clifford and Suero are valued players, but coming off terrible seasons, and so aren't great candidates for another team to try to carry all season without optioning down. But who knows? The Mets have several guys they can remove from the roster, in order to make room for the above, without a lot of pain: Phillip Abner Cameron Weston Hayden Senger Christopher Morel Eric Wagaman Cristian Pache If anything is more certain than Jefferson Rojas being added to the roster, it's Cristian Pache being removed from it. But crossing off those six would leave six spots open, one or two of which will presumably go to free agents. There is a good chance they will non-tender perpetual bubble starter Tylor Megill, so pick five names from that list above to pull onto your life raft, tap your Jerry Koosman bobblehead for good luck, and start rowing. FULL LIST OF RULE 5-ELIGIBLE METS MINOR-LEAGUERS Pitchers: Ryan Ammons Eli Ankeney Justin Armbruester Juan Arnaud Brett Banks Jose Chirinos Irving Cota Candido Cuevas Felipe De La Cruz Jorge De Leon Joel Díaz Zach Franklin Saul Garcia Gary Gill Hill Cristofer Gomez Noah Hall Dakota Hawkins Wyatt Hudepohl Bryce Jenkins Jonathan Jimenez Gregori Louis Ernesto Mercedes Douglas Orellana Cesar Rivera Christian Rodriguez Luis R. Rodriguez Ben Simon Austin Troesser Jack Wenninger Calvin Ziegler Catchers: Ronald Hernandez Kevin Parada Vincent Perozo Chris Suero Francisco Toledo Infielders: Ryan Clifford Randy Guzman Nick Lorusso Jacob Reimer Jefferson Rojas D'Andre Smith Marco Vargas Outfielders: Yohairo Cuevas Estarling Mercado Yonatan Henriquez View the full article

At this point, there's very little mystery around Adrian Morejon. But given his standing within the San Diego Padres organization ahead of the 2026 season, there was never supposed to be. With Mason Miller set up for ninth-inning duty at the onset of the campaign, Morejon was expected to enter the season as their most important non-closer reliever. Even for a bullpen-forward pitching staff, his skill set had evolved over the last trio of seasons to earn such a status. A former starting pitcher that faced injury woes early in his career, Morejon's breakout came in 2024. That year, he posted a 2.83 ERA, a 26.1 percent strikeout rate, and a 7.7 percent walk rate across a career-high 60 appearances. He followed that up with more volume (75 appearances), fewer strikeouts (24.5 percent) but fewer walks (5.9 percent), and better run prevention (2.08 ERA) in 2025. The 2026 season, however, represented a shift both in role and in performance for Morejon. The most notable thing about the last three seasons is how he's been deployed. In 2024, Morejon was appearing in games as early as the fourth inning with much of his work being concentrated in the sixth or seventh. The following year was more of the same, primarily deployed in the sixth and seventh with occasional eight-inning stints. This season, though, it was almost exclusively high-leverage work for Morejon. For the first time in his career in 2026, the bulk of Morejon's work came in the eighth inning, with 38 of his 86 total innings serving primarily to set up Miller. Another 27 frames came in the seventh. While there was the odd appearance elsewhere, this is the most defined leverage role we've seen for Morejon in any of the last three seasons, and he took advantage of it. Among the qualified relievers in baseball in 2026, Morejon's 2.8 figure landed him in fourth. That's noteworthy considering the other six names in the top seven were closers. You'd have to scroll down to Brent Headrick's name in eighth place (2.1 fWAR) to find another non-closer in that elite tier of bullpen savants. Speaking of (Baseball) Savant, there's all of this to consider as well: The stuff on its own was, obviously, elite. His fastball velocity sat at its highest point ever with a strikeout rate that also reached a career-best mark. That latter number, at 30.4 percent, ranked 18th among qualifying relievers. But Morejon wasn't the type of reliever solely primed to mow down opposing hitters via the strikeout. There was plenty of that, but when contact was made, it was being driven into the ground. A shift in usage to being more sinker-changeup than sinker-slider resulted in a groundball rate that was five percentage points higher than last year, with the changeup itself contributing to groundball contact more than 77 percent of the time. That blend of skills is what made Morejon the game's most essential non-closer relief pitcher in 2026. The strikeouts were there, but even when they weren't, hitters were still otherwise relatively helpless (especially in front of an improved San Diego defense). It's entirely possible—maybe even likely—that this is the end of the road for Morejon with the Padres. Set to hit free agency, he's going to command closer-level dollars that appear entirely warranted coming off a season like this one. Some team out on the market may even hand him the ninth-inning gig. Regardless of what shape his future may take, though, it's evident that his 2026 season was the kind seldom seen, wherein he contributed closer-level production despite not possessing the title. View the full article

The Twins decided to be aggressive at the trade deadline, and while they ultimately fell short of their postseason goal, they were still able to add a few controllable arms in the process. One of those arms was Jeff Hoffman's. Hoffman was the most expensive reliever Minnesota acquired, but he also looked pretty darn good during his brief stint with the Twins. Across 18 innings, he posted a 2.50 ERA and 2.43 FIP, allowing just nine hits while striking out 27 batters. He also walked 12, and command has been an area he’s struggled with in the past. Still, there are very few pitchers in baseball with better pure stuff than Hoffman, and while he can be streaky, he should get the first crack at the primary closer role for Minnesota in 2027. His underlying numbers make a pretty compelling case for that role. His strikeout, whiff and chase rates all finished in the 98th percentile or better among MLB pitchers. That's the type of profile you'd expect from a premier closer, and his pitch mix gives him multiple ways to get hitters out. His slider is particularly nasty, generating whiffs on more than 50% of swings last season. That’s elite for any pitch, let alone one that’s making up just under half of his usage. Pretty nuts. The four-seam fastball is another legitimate weapon, featuring an incredible movement profile with more than 16 inches of rise and nearly 14 inches of tail. It also finished with a Stuff+ grade of 115, which was better than Joe Ryan's four-seam fastball–which has been widely regarded as one of the better four-seamers in the league. He also has a splitter with a strong movement profile, giving him a legitimate three-pitch mix that can keep hitters off balance. When Hoffman is locating all three pitches, there's a lot to like about his arsenal. That hasn’t always come easy for him, however. Command has been a concern throughout Hoffman's 11-year MLB career, and his time with the Twins was no exception. His walk rate jumped to 15.6% in Minnesota, which is far too high for any pitcher expected to handle consistent high-leverage opportunities. For context, Hoffman's career walk rate sits right around 10%. That's a much more manageable number, especially when paired with the strikeout ability he's displayed throughout his career. If he can maintain a strikeout rate north of 30%, a walk rate around 10% is something the Twins can live with. Approaching a 16% walk rate, though, is a different story. Hoffman isn't the only member of Minnesota's bullpen who struggled to consistently find the strike zone this season, though. Yoendrys Gómez finished the year with a walk rate north of 13%, which was higher than Hoffman's season-long mark of 10.3%. Andrew Morris was better in that department, posting an 8.4% walk rate, but he didn't have the same overall success as Hoffman. That doesn't mean the Twins should ignore the command concerns. If anything, they highlight why Minnesota needs to improve their bullpen depth this offseason. But Hoffman has the type of stuff that can make those occasional walks easier to overcome, provided he can get back closer to his career norms. It's also possible the Twins learn from their mistakes this past offseason and increase their payroll by adding more established late-inning arms. There should be several quality options available, and assuming a salary floor is implemented, the bullpen would be an easy place for Minnesota to spend money while addressing one of its biggest roster needs. I certainly expect the Twins to add relief options this winter, and hopefully, one or two of those additions will be capable of challenging for the ninth-inning role. Minnesota is (potentially) a playoff team with a better bullpen this year, and relying on the same group of arms without adding meaningful competition would be a questionable approach. However, there are already financial considerations that make Hoffman an appealing option. The Twins owe him north of $7 million of his $11 million contract next season, which is already lower-end closer. Maybe Minnesota surprises everyone and spends lucratively on one or two additional bullpen arms. There are certainly situations where that investment would make sense, particularly if the Twins want to turn their late-inning group into a genuine strength. But based on what we've seen from this front office and ownership, I'm not expecting them to make that kind of commitment. More likely, the Twins will look for a few affordable additions who can provide depth and compete for high-leverage opportunities. That approach would leave Hoffman in a pretty good position heading into 2027. Barring the emergence of a young arm or the addition of a true, premier closer, I doubt Minnesota will have one pitcher who receives every save opportunity. Having multiple options for the ninth inning would be a good thing, especially given Hoffman's occasional command issues. Still, there's a difference between having a primary closer and giving someone every save opportunity. Hoffman has the track record, underlying numbers and raw stuff to earn the first crack at the job, even if the Twins want to keep other options available. His brief stint in Minnesota showed what he can bring to the bullpen when he's at his best. If he can get his walk rate back under control, there's plenty of reason to believe he can be a reliable late-inning option. The Twins have plenty of work to do before their bullpen is where it needs to be, but Hoffman is a good starting point. Minnesota should continue adding arms this offseason, yet unless one of those additions clearly separates himself from the pack, Hoffman should enter spring training as the favorite to close games in 2027. View the full article

Following their embarassing sweep at the hands of the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card Round, the Chicago Cubs are in full offseason mode. They have several impending free agents, meaning this is a roster that could (and should) look fairly different in 2027. But in addition to free agency, the Cubs could look to their farm system to help bring in some proven big league talent. The prospect pipeline isn't in a great spot, but it's also far from dry. With the hope of competing again in 2027, here are three prospects who could wind up on the move this winter. All prospect rankings courtesy of North Side Baseball. Kane Kepley, OF Kepley ranks as the Cubs’ No. 5 prospect, and I think his higher floor would make him an attractive target for other teams looking to add young talent. Across 125 games between High-A and Double-A this season, Kepley posted a .422 on-base percentage and an .823 OPS. He drew 120 walks, good for a 20.2% walk rate, showing an impressive ability to work counts and get on base. And when he gets on, he’s going to run. He stole 70 bases this season, adding another valuable tool to his profile. Kepley also projects as a strong defender at the major-league level, giving him several ways to contribute even if he doesn’t have 25-homer upside laden in his bat. I’m certainly not suggesting the Cubs should move him for just anyone. His combination of on-base skills, speed, and defense gives him a legitimate chance to become a productive big-league player. But if Chicago can use him to land a quality starting pitcher or more immediate outfield help, it may be a move worth making. Ethan Conrad, OF Sticking with the young outfielders, Conrad ranks just behind Kepley as the organization’s No. 6 prospect. Like his fellow outfielder, he has a relatively high floor, with a combination of impressive bat-to-ball skills, quality defense, and athleticism that could appeal to other organizations. The biggest concern is his health. Conrad was limited to just 36 games this season due to injuries, which have been a bit of a recurring theme throughout his development. Still, the tools are there to make him an interesting trade asset. Conrad posted an impressive 86.2% overall contact rate with Low-A Myrtle Beach, where he spent most of the season. He also has the ability to drive the ball with authority, thanks in part to a smooth, repeatable swing from the left side. Defensively, he can handle all three outfield positions at a high level. He has the speed to be an asset on the bases, although we didn’t see much of that in 2026, likely due to his injuries. There really aren’t many glaring weaknesses in Conrad’s game aside from his ability to stay on the field. Assuming he’s healthy this offseason, his tools could make him an appealing buy-low candidate for a team willing to take a chance on his potential. For the Cubs, he could be a valuable piece in a package for a proven big league player. There’s certainly risk in moving a first-round prospect who has yet to get an extended opportunity, but the front office may be able to capitalize on his potential to address a more immediate need. Jaxon Wiggins, RHP While Kepley and Conrad could potentially get a deal done themselves (though perhaps more likely alongside another piece), Wiggins would undoubtedly have to be part of a package to bring back a proven major-league asset. He ranks as North Side Baseball’s No. 3 organizational prospect (for now—that ranking will drop in our offseason update) and entered the 2026 season as a top-100 prospect across baseball. The upside is absolutely there for him to become a quality big-league pitcher, but his performance this year raised some questions. Part of that could be attributed to the elbow inflammation that caused him to miss approximately three months. Still, Wiggins walked 31 batters over 33 1/3 innings with Triple-A Iowa, resulting in a 19.3% walk rate. He was also moved from the rotation to the bullpen. It was a massive step back after his huge breakout in 2025. Even so, Wiggins has some impressive stuff. His upper-90s fastball can reach triple digits and features truly elite run up in the zone. He also has an upper-80s to low-90s slider that generates plenty of swing-and-miss. The foundation for an impact arm in the majors is easy to see. But that won’t happen if he can’t find the strike zone. I could see another team taking a chance on Wiggins’ upside, particularly if the Cubs include him alongside another prospect in a deal for established talent. His combination of velocity and swing-and-miss stuff could be enticing for an organization that believes it can help him put everything together. View the full article

Now that he has the full-time job, Boston Red Sox manager Chad Tracy is tweaking what will be his first MLB coaching staff. Well, sorta his. After robbing a couple of minor-league affiliates of coaching personnel when Alex Cora was fired April 25, a few of those individuals are heading back to the minors. Chad Epperson, who became the Red Sox's third base coach, will become the Triple-A manager, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Epperson had been the manager at Double-A Portland when the MLB staff changes happened. Tracy had been Worcester's skipper before taking over for Cora and then being named the full-time manager at the end of the regular season. Also, interim first base coach Pablo Cabrera will return to his role of minor-league defensive coordinator. The remainder of the coaching staff is expected to remain in their current roles. Tracy reportedly has been told that he will not be able to hire any big names to his staff due to what the Red Sox are paying everyone who was fired. View the full article

The Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays are headed to the World Series, and neither team needed a top-10 payroll to get there. Milwaukee entered the 2026 season with the 19th-highest Opening Day payroll in baseball, while Tampa Bay ranked 26th. For the Minnesota Twins, it might be tempting to look at this matchup and conclude that payroll isn't as important as people think. If these smaller-market organizations can compete for a championship without spending big, why can't the Twins? A well-run organization can overcome financial limitations, but that doesn't mean payroll is unimportant. Three teams in the bottom 11 of Opening Day payrolls reached the League Championship Series this year, and Milwaukee made an especially convincing statement by sweeping the Los Angeles Dodgers, whose payroll was nearly twice as large as the Brewers'. Those are impressive accomplishments, but they don't change what decades of baseball history have shown us. Teams with top-10 payrolls have won 20 of the last 28 World Series titles. MLB.com has also found that teams in the upper half of spending are roughly 1.7 times more likely to reach the playoffs; three times more likely to reach the League Championship Series; and six times more likely to reach the World Series than teams in the bottom half. Money doesn't guarantee success, but it significantly improves a team's chances of achieving it. The Brewers and Rays are exceptions to that rule. Both organizations have built impressive systems for identifying talent, developing players and replacing departing contributors. They're among the best-run organizations in baseball, and their success demonstrates how much a smart front office can accomplish despite financial limitations. Even then, imagine what they could do with more money to retain their best players and supplement their young talent. That's where the comparison becomes problematic for the Twins. Minnesota hasn't demonstrated the same ability to consistently overcome its limitations. Front-office turnover, managerial changes, coaching turnover and too many prospect flameouts have made it difficult to trust that the organization can consistently make the right decisions. The Twins need to improve their scouting, player development and roster construction, but they also need to give themselves more financial flexibility. When an organization hasn't shown it can consistently get the most out of its existing resources, the answer shouldn't be to provide even fewer resources and hope for better results. This brings us to the upcoming offseason. With labor negotiations potentially bringing a salary floor, a salary cap or other changes to baseball's economic structure, we don't know exactly what the financial landscape will look like. What we do know is that the Twins need a payroll closer to the middle of the league than the bottom. They don't necessarily need to spend like the Dodgers, but they need more flexibility to retain their best players and address roster weaknesses, without relying on every prospect and every internal decision to work out perfectly. In a 2024 interview with WCCO, Joe Pohlad pointed to the Rays as an example of why the Twins didn't need to spend big to compete. Tampa Bay has shown that an organization could win without making major investments in free agency, and the Twins believed they could follow a similar model. Now, with the Rays in the World Series alongside Milwaukee, it's easy to see how ownership could use this year's results to justify keeping payroll down. But the Rays' success doesn't mean the Twins can afford to spend less. Tampa Bay has built an organization capable of consistently overcoming its financial limitations, something Minnesota hasn't proven it can do. Tom Pohlad shouldn't mistake the success of two exceptionally well-run organizations for evidence that payroll doesn't matter. I hope the biggest takeaway from this World Series, for Tom Pohlad and the Twins' front office, isn't that payroll doesn't matter. It absolutely does. Milwaukee and Tampa Bay have earned their place on baseball's biggest stage, but their success shouldn't become another justification for Minnesota to spend less. The Twins need to make better decisions, and they need to give themselves more resources to work with. Until they prove they can consistently build and sustain a contender, spending more on the major-league roster is one of the clearest ways to improve their chances. Do you agree? Should the Twins view the Brewers and Rays as proof that a low payroll can work, or should this World Series matchup reinforce the need for Minnesota to spend more? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View the full article

Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta have been stars of the Tampa Bay Rays’ September and October run. Rasmussen has demonstrated the durability over the past two seasons to finally fulfill his potential, while Peralta has been revitalized in Tampa Bay, where the Rays have helped him become more explosive and make better use of his changeup. Both will prove formidable adversaries as the Rays arrive in Milwaukee for Games 1 and 2 this weekend. How can the Brewers get the better of their own former hurlers? Drew Rasmussen: Hit Him, Or Else Rasmussen has been the standout starting pitcher of the postseason so far. While the Guardians and Yankees have struggled offensively this year, he shut both lineups down emphatically. His three postseason starts have produced the following results: 8 innings, 1 hit, 2 walks, 10 strikeouts, 0 earned runs vs. Yankees 6 innings, 8 hits, 0 walks, 7 strikeouts, 2 earned runs vs. Guardians 7 innings, 4 hits, 1 walk, 6 strikeouts, 1 earned run vs. Guardians Rasmussen looked most vulnerable in his first start against Cleveland, allowing two home runs and (perhaps) benefitting from favorable sequencing to limit the damage to two runs. Otherwise, his three-fastball mix, devastating changeup, and relentless strike-throwing have made him a nightmare for opposing hitters. There are, however, some signs that Rasmussen has become more hittable beneath the surface this postseason. During the regular season, he excelled across several underlying metrics, ranking in the top third of the league in ground-ball rate, hard-hit rate, and called strikes plus whiffs. He consistently got ahead in counts, generated swings and misses, and limited hard contact while attacking the strike zone. That combination allowed him to work deep into games without sacrificing effectiveness. The foundation of Rasmussen’s success is the combination of above-average command and plus stuff, particularly on his cutter and fastballs. His changeup is an especially effective put-away pitch when he gets ahead in the count, disrupting hitters’ timing after they have adjusted to his fastball-heavy approach. Pitch Profiler’s metrics illustrate why this combination works. His ProPitching+ grades exceed his Stuff+ grades across his pitch mix, suggesting that his location and execution have added value beyond the quality of his raw stuff. Rasmussen keeps the ball away from the heart of the plate, disrupts timing with his fastball mix and changeup, and rarely wastes pitches. For hitters, that leaves very little margin for error. Rasmussen has also simplified his arsenal. He previously featured a curveball and sweeper, but neither pitch offered the command or swing-and-miss potential he needed, while both allowed relatively hard contact, averaging over 92 MPH on balls in play. He has since moved away from those offerings, effectively settling into a four-pitch mix. That change has helped him limit damaging contact. Of his four remaining pitches, only the four-seam fastball has an average exit velocity above 87 MPH, at 91. His sinker and cutter generate considerably more horizontal movement than is typical for a pitcher with his arm slot, making them difficult to square up. Even his four-seamer has been effective, particularly when he locates it at the top of the strike zone. Its high arm slot and induced vertical break make the pitch difficult to hit when elevated. The problem comes when Rasmussen misses down toward the middle or lower portion of the zone, where hitters have found more opportunities to do damage this year. That distinction could be particularly important for Milwaukee. Rasmussen’s contact-quality numbers have dipped this postseason, and his commitment to attacking the strike zone has begun to carry some risk. His willingness to avoid walks has contributed to an excellent 26.4% strikeout-minus-walk rate, but that same aggressiveness can leave pitches over the heart of the plate. He now ranks below average in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate prevention, while his swing-and-miss rate sits just above average. Those numbers suggest that, although Rasmussen is still missing bats and limiting walks, hitters have had more opportunities to make solid contact when he does enter the zone. His control has been elite this month. The only hope you have is that he's making a (very) few more mistakes in the middle of the zone. Here's his run from June 1 through the end of the regular season, and in the playoffs, via the FanGraphs PitchingBot Visualizer tool. The Brewers could be well placed to exploit that trade-off. They have shown they are willing to work an at-bat when a pitcher struggles to generate whiffs in the strike zone, waiting for a mistake they can drive rather than chasing pitches outside their ideal hitting zones. Against Rasmussen, that patience could be crucial—especially as the team hones its focus on assailing mistakes. The challenge is that his pitches are not easy to spoil. Without a prominent breaking ball to disrupt their timing in a different way, hitters can find themselves just late or early enough to put the ball in play, rather than foul it off and extend the at-bat. That creates a difficult balance for Milwaukee: be selective enough to punish mistakes, but avoid turning Rasmussen’s weak contact into easy outs for a Rays defense that can smother you on balls in play. I would expect Rasmussen to lean more heavily on his changeup against the Brewers. Milwaukee showed some vulnerability to changeups against the Dodgers, and their ability to recognize and adjust to that pitch could go a long way toward determining the outcome of this matchup. Rasmussen has thrown 47% of his pitches in the shadow zone (around the edges of the strike zone), highlighting just how effectively he works the margins. The Brewers’ best route to success is to make him come over the heart of the plate, without chasing the pitches he uses to get ahead. Force Rasmussen to prove he can beat them inside the zone, then capitalize when his command slips. If he continues to locate his pitches on the edges and disrupt their timing, his return to Milwaukee could make for a long, gruelling night for the Brewers. One thing is for sure: Rasmussen won't beat himself. He won't issue free passes. The Brewers are going to have to make their own fortune in this one. Freddy Peralta: Why Swing? Freddy Peralta looks like an elite arm on the surface. He has thrown 16⅔ innings this postseason (including one relief appearance) and conceded just two earned runs. He was even named ALCS MVP. The results suggest a pitcher in complete control, but the changes made by the Rays’ pitching staff have helped Peralta become more athletic in his delivery, increase his fastball velocity, and simplify his approach. He's also making greater use of his changeup, reducing his reliance on the breaking pitches that were often difficult to command during his time with the Brewers and Mets. They've got him back on the third-base side of the rubber, too, where he's always preferred to be. Peralta is throwing harder and keeping things simpler. The surface results suggest genuine progress, but they may also disguise some good fortune. For Milwaukee, the question is whether his new approach can continue to succeed against a lineup that knows his tendencies better than most. The changeup is one of baseball’s most effective weapons for disguising a fastball, and Peralta’s ability to tunnel the two pitches has helped him limit damaging contact this postseason. As the data above illustrates, hitters have struggled to square him up consistently. However, there are signs that his results have been better than his overall command. Peralta’s zone rate sits at just 44%, falling to 37% in Game 6 of the ALCS. Despite generating swings and misses, he has not consistently translated that into high strikeout totals. That combination matters: if hitters are not making enough contact to hurt him, but are also not striking out at a high rate, there may be opportunities to force him into longer at-bats and make him work harder for outs. The key is understanding how differently Peralta approaches right- and left-handed hitters. Against right-handers, the fastball has been his primary weapon. It's been in the strike zone approximately 48% of the time, and he's relied on it almost exclusively against right-handed hitters this postseason. Of the 26 pitches he has thrown to right-handers, 24 have been fastballs. That predictability could become a problem against William Contreras and Jackson Chourio, two hitters who can punish a pitcher who allows them to settle into a rhythm. Although right-handed hitters have managed just a .422 OPS against Peralta so far, the Brewers cannot afford to confuse poor results in a small sample with an inability to handle his elevated velocity. His fastball is an excellent pitch in its own right, but if he continues to lean on it so heavily, Milwaukee’s right-handed bats may eventually find their timing. Of course, in showdowns between either of those guys and Peralta, you can all but throw out the numbers. The parties involved know each other as well as any batters and pitchers who might face off, anywhere in baseball. Peralta will be trying everything he can to confound the expectations of Contreras and Chourio, but those two will also be thinking along with him more than batters usually do. Left-handed hitters have seen a more varied approach, with the changeup playing a central role in neutralizing them. That makes Christian Yelich, Jake Bauers, Brice Turang and Garrett Mitchell particularly important to this matchup. If Peralta can use the changeup to keep those four hitters off balance, he'll have a much better chance of working efficiently through the Brewers’ lineup. There is another wrinkle in his approach: the curveball. Peralta has thrown 19 curveballs this postseason, 12 of them in 0-0 counts and three in 3-2 counts. The early-count usage is particularly revealing. He's thrown the pitch in the strike zone 63% of the time, suggesting it can be an effective way to steal a strike before returning to his primary weapons. For the Brewers, recognizing that pattern could simplify the at-bat. If Peralta opens with a curveball for a strike, hitters should be prepared for the fastball and changeup to dominate the remainder of the plate appearance, rather than expecting him to continue mixing in breaking pitches. They shouldn't automatically dismiss a second curveball, but they can use his tendencies to anticipate what is most likely to come next. More importantly, there might be an opportunity to ambush that curve. Brice Turang, for instance, handles curveballs from right-handed pitchers exceptionally well, and can drive that pitch out of the park to center field. Peralta’s ability to limit hard contact this postseason has been helped by the locations he is targeting. He's keeping his fastball in the upper third of the strike zone or above it, avoiding the lower portion of the zone until his mechanics begin to falter. When he executes that approach, the elevated fastball can generate swings and misses or weak contact without giving hitters a comfortable pitch to drive. The danger for Milwaukee is chasing that fastball above the zone. Doing so would play directly into Peralta’s strengths, allowing him to generate uncompetitive swings while avoiding the risk of throwing hittable pitches over the heart of the plate. Unlike Rasmussen, who challenges hitters with a high rate of strikes and precision around the edges, Peralta presents more of a waiting game. The Brewers need to be prepared to see pitches, extend at-bats and accept walks when he cannot locate the ball. When he misses, it tends not to be in the middle of the plate, but out of the zone—especially to the arm side. That doesn't mean taking every pitch that isn't a fastball. Peralta’s changeup is a genuine weapon, particularly against left-handed hitters, and his curveball can steal strikes early in counts. Instead, Milwaukee needs to recognize the difference between a pitch it can drive and one designed to provoke a chase. As with Blake Snell, Peralta can be exceptionally difficult to hit when he controls the terms of the at-bat. But the Brewers have an opportunity to make him work differently from the Guardians and Yankees: take the borderline pitches, recognize the elevated fastball, and refuse to expand the zone. They need to make him earn every out. If the Brewers remain disciplined, the walks should come, the pitch count should climb, and the occasional fastball left in the strike zone (or attempted strike-stealing curve) could provide the opportunity for a big hit with runners on base. The main difference between the pitcher against whom the Brewers scored seven earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in July and what the Rays have now is the chase rate. The changeup has been a big part of helping Peralta induce more chase. It's had a dramatic knock-on effect on the quality of contact Peralta has given up, compared to his time with the Mets, Hitters are swinging more often against Peralta since the trade deadline, but that's unlikely to continue in the World Series, with the most patient hitters in baseball facing him. Summary Rasmussen and Peralta have been instrumental in Tampa Bay’s postseason success, particularly because the Rays' pen is not as robust as it's been in past Octobers. The two former Brewers arms are formidable front-line arms, but they don't have elite relief support. The Brewers need to get to each, but they can also win by pushing them out of the game early and pouncing on a middle reliever or two. The name of the game, against each, is to avoid quick outs. That will just require different approaches against each, given their different styles. View the full article

It was another disappointing finish for the San Diego Padres, but we also have to recognize that they were eliminated by the best team in baseball throughout the entire season: the Milwaukee Brewers. Everything came down to a four-game series dominated by pitching from start to finish. No winning team scored more than four runs and, with the exception of Game 4, every game ended by a one-run margin. So, the opportunity to turn the series around was there the entire time. The Padres recorded 145 plate appearances and, in 41.3% of them, their hitters came to the plate with the score tied or trailing by just one run. Unfortunately, the Friars were only able to change the score in three of the 19 occasions when it had runners in scoring position. In the end, the key hit didn’t come in most of those opportunities and, in two of them, the baseball gods were not on their side. Before the postseason, I set out to investigate what kind of shape most of San Diego’s starting hitters were in when they arrived at the playoffs. In several cases, they entered the postseason in the best form of their season; in others, they simply never found their best version. Here, I take a look at some of the moments that defined each hitter before and during the postseason. Austin Hays His out-of-zone contact rate fell from 55% in September to 33.3% in the postseason, which led to an increase in his strikeout rate from 22.6% to 30%. Hays had a good pinch-hit at-bat for Jake Cronenworth in the top of the eighth inning of Game 1, when he hit a fly ball against left-hander DL Hall with runners on first and second and one out. Samad Taylor took advantage and advanced to third, but Fernando Tatis Jr. then struck out against Trevor Megill. Dustin Harris Despite recording just a .188 xwOBA in the NLDS, Harris made an interesting adjustment by lowering his swing rate on pitches outside the zone from 32.5% to 15.8%. At the same time, however, his contact rate fell from 65.3% to 50%. On the other hand, his decline in production also coincided with a drop in his BABIP, which went from a surprising .328 in the final month of the regular season to just .200 in the NLDS. Ethan Salas His talent is undeniable, but his .737 OPS in September fell to .325 over his 10 postseason plate appearances. He also finished with a 37.5% strikeout rate, the highest of anyone on the roster. Fernando Tatis Jr. Before reaching the postseason, Tatis was going through one of the best stretches of his entire campaign, so it was inevitable that expectations would be high. He hit .337/.413/.652, with a 1.066 OPS and 193 wRC+ in September, but then fell to .167/.231/.417 and 78 wRC+ in the postseason. In 17 of his 18 plate appearances against the Brewers, Tatis came to the plate with the score close. He finished 1-for-7 with two strikeouts in tied-game situations, including both of his leadoff at-bats. His only two productive plate appearances were the RBI groundout against Dustin May that gave the Padres a 1-0 lead in the third inning of Game 3, and the home run against Robert Gasser that tied Game 4 in the third inning. Gavin Sheets He won’t only be remembered for striking out for the final out of the NLDS against Trevor Megill’s knuckle curveball, but also because he had fallen into a terrible slump in September for the second consecutive year. In 2025, he finished with a 61 wRC+; this year, his OPS fell to just .333 and his wRC+ to -10. Jackson Merrill He's arrived to the playoffs in peak form in recent years, with 156 and 152 wRC+ marks in September 2025 and 2026, respectively. But this time, he couldn’t shine and was limited to a .176/.176/.176 line against the Brewers. Game 1 was his biggest test, when he had three key opportunities against Aaron Ashby, DL Hall and Trevor Megill in the fifth, seventh and ninth innings, respectively. All three came with two outs. Against Ashby, he failed with a fly ball to center field, with runners on second and third and the game tied 2-2. He then faced Hall with the bases loaded and failed again with a fly ball to left field against a cutter high and away. Later, in the ninth, he hit a line-drive out to right field against a 99 mph fastball from Megill for the final out of the game. He finished 1-for-7 against Milwaukee’s group of left-handed relievers: Ashby, Hall, and JoJo Romero. Jake Cronenworth After struggling for much of the first half of the season and spending time on the injured list, Cronenworth recorded a 119 wRC+ in July. He then fell to 75 in August, but adjusted his swing again in September, when he posted a .418 slugging percentage, his highest in any month of the entire season. However, he became anxious at the plate again, and his swing rate on pitches outside the zone rose from 26.4% to 39.3%. The only two hits he recorded in the NLDS came against left-handed pitchers: a single against DL Hall and the solo home run on the first pitch of the fifth inning in Game 3 against JoJo Romero, which turned out to be one of the key hits that allowed the Padres to avoid the sweep. That home run was the hit that added the most win probability for the Padres (0.14) from a batter in the entire NLDS. Manny Machado It’s inevitable to mention one of the hits that could have changed the course of the postseason for the Padres. When Machado hit that deep fly ball to center field in Game 4 and Garrett Mitchell caught it, it felt as if the game had ended right there. No matter how much Padres fans tried not to lose hope, the team couldn’t recover, and that colossal catch by Mitchell was the final attempt at a comeback. If there was one key to the Brewers’ pitching, it was preventing Machado from finding runners on base frequently. In nine of his 17 plate appearances, he found the bases empty, and he finished 1-for-6, with three walks and a double in those at-bats. He went 1-for-2 with runners in scoring position (RISP), and the only run he drove in came on a single against Dustin May in the third inning of Game 3. Luis Campusano Do you remember his 156 wRC+ in July? That version of Campusano didn’t make it past August, when he recorded a 112 wRC+. In September and October 2026, he hit .215/.292/.369, with an 88 wRC+ in 72 plate appearances. Although he improved his OBP to .357 over his 14 postseason plate appearances, his contact rate against pitches in the zone fell considerably, from 83.9% to 70.6%. That regression mattered, since Campusano had runners on base in five of his 10 at-bats against the Brewers in the NLDS. His big at-bat will be remembered: in the second inning of Game 1, he hit a single against a cutter from Jacob Misiorowski that came right down the middle of the zone, putting the Padres ahead 1-0. However, he didn’t drive in another run in his remaining nine plate appearances. In each of them, he had the chance to change the score, since he always came to the plate with the game tied or with a one-run difference, whether the Padres were ahead or behind. Samad Taylor Contact ability, one of the elements that drove Taylor’s at-bats for much of the year, suffered its biggest regression in the postseason: his out-of-zone swing rate increased from 30.6% to 46.7%. He didn’t draw any walks, and his strikeout rate jumped from 21.1% to 40%. Yes, I haven’t forgotten his reaction when he struck out looking at Ashby’s curveball for the third out of the seventh inning in Game 4. Ty France All of his months were solid, featuring at least a 123 wRC+, and he finished September with an impressive 140 mark. His bat made a difference for the Padres, and it’s very likely that he will receive a contract offer, since he will be a free agent in a matter of weeks. In any case, people will talk for a long time about the fly ball he hit off the roof of American Family Field in Game 1. Statcast projected it as a potential home run in one of the 30 ballparks, with a chance to become a home run only at Daikin Park. From Game 2 onward, France finished 2-for-10 and drove in just one run. Xander Bogaerts You may find it surprising, but Bogaerts hit only two balls that clearly got past the infield against the Brewers. Both were line drives: a single against Antonio Senzatela, with the bases empty and two outs in the sixth inning of Game 3, and a line-drive out to right field against Robert Gasser. Bogaerts had finished the Wild Card Series against the Chicago Cubs 4-for-8, with a double, a home run and two RBIs, but the Brewers limited him to a puzzling .154/.267/.154 slash line, with just a 32 wRC+ in 15 plate appearances. View the full article

On October 17, 1982, 18-year-old me went down to County Stadium from Madison with my parents and sister for Game 5 of the World Series against the St. Louis Cardinals. The series was tied 2-2. Before the playoffs, my dad had submitted a request for postseason tickets, and this was the game he got. Lucky us. The game was brilliant. Robin Yount had hit a dramatic home run in the 7th, and Mike Caldwell had gutted out 8 1/3 innings as the Crew won 6-4. It was the last game of the series in Milwaukee - as the final two were in St. Louis. I went home confident - knowing that we had to just win one of the last two games. Surely we could do that. The Brewers were - after all - a great team. They had won 97 games, and had slugged 216 home runs. They had three players with more than 30 homers. And three that had hit better than .300. Three players had more than 200 hits. Robin Yount was the league MVP. The names are now part of Brewer lore. Cecil Cooper, Gorman Thomas, Jim Gantner, Ben Oglivie, Don Money, Paul Molitor, Ted Simmons, Yount, Mike Caldwell, and others. This was Harvey's Wallbangers at their finest. My friend (RIP, Andy) and I watched Game 6 at a bar (drinking age was 18 back then). The Crew got pummelled. We had one more chance. The Brewers lost 6-3. I remember walking away with my buddy lamenting our not-so-stellar pitching. And the injury to Rollie Fingers - one of the game's great relievers. But still, I said, next year. Or the next. We had a good team. We surely had more epic seasons in us. But it was not to be. The Brewers were getting older. Injuries and age chipped away at the club. The team hit only 132 home runs the next season - with only one player hitting more than 20. And the lack of pitching further exposed the team. Now, the Brewers were still good. They won 87 games in 1983. But this was pre-wild card baseball. Good didn’t get you into the playoffs. And so the Brewers floundered. Some years they showed signs of life - but the club was always exposed in some fashion. The greats of 1982 aged and faded - or retired or moved on. There would be no division titles. No World Series trips. Nothing. The 1990s were the bleakest of eras. It was the Sal Bando era. That’s not a compliment. The team failed to invest in scouting not just in the United States, but also in Latin America. They made poor decisions on who to sign as free agents - and who to let walk. They drafted badly. It was the ugliest of times, as we were not only not very good but also had little hope for the future. That changed in the 2000s with a new regime - and then a new owner. In 2008, I took my then 9-year-old son to the final game of the season - watching Ryan Braun hit a homer to put us in the lead - and CC Sabathia close things out with another complete game victory. My son says he remembers being at the game - but not much about the specifics of it. He just remembers the place going crazy, then watching the Mets-Marlins game - which got us into the playoffs. He said dropping the blue-and-gold confetti was what he remembers most. Since 2008, the Brewers have had legitimate opportunities to get back to the World Series. Perhaps decades of heartbreak have steeled me to be cautious - but even this year - I tried not to get too excited about the club’s success. Even as the team came within one out of defeating the Dodgers in Game 4 of the NLCS - I fretted, thinking we’d find some way to blow it. But we didn’t. It was glorious. For more than 40 years, Brewer fans have revered the 1982 Brewers - the one team to make it to the Big Dance. The club that came so close to winning it all. The team that we held close to our hearts. Heck, there was even a film - Just a Bit Outside - made a couple of years ago about the 1982 team. And so, while people who lived through the 1982 season will never forget their beloved Harvey’s Wallbangers, the victory over the Dodgers last week has exorcized a ghost. It was a ghost of the greatest club ever to wear the Brewers uniform. A ghost reminding us - every year - of the failures of more than four decades. And that is a good thing. 44 years is too long to cling to such ghosts. It’s far better to embrace the living, breathing thrill and excitement of today. And I can’t help but feel happy for a new generation of Brewer fans. They can experience the thrill I had experienced back in 1982. The thrill that we are the best. And there is so much more to come. For myself, the greatest joy is that my son and his wife are big Brewer fans. His excitement about this year’s club was so much fun. To have him texting me during the games these past few months - usually excited about something that happened - has been awesome. It’s a bonding moment that I cherish as I am older - and know that the years ahead are a lot fewer than those behind me. So as the 2026 World Series approaches, I can only look at the experience with incredible amounts of anxiety - but more than that - gratitude and satisfaction. It has been 44 years since I cheered from the first base side of County Stadium - as fans swarmed the field at the end of Game 5. Those are great memories - but also ghosts that have hovered over the franchise for far too long. It’s time to make new heroes and new memories - and hopefully - an experience never before seen in franchise history. View the full article

The Blue Jays worked Mason Fluharty too hard in 2026. The sophomore made a league-leading 83 appearances. He became one of only three pitchers in the last decade to pitch in more than half the season's games. Fluharty also became the first pitcher since Jonathan Broxton in 2007 to pitch at least 83 games in his age-24 (or younger) campaign. I should be clear that Fluharty was up to the task. He finished the season with a 7-1 record, a 3.30 ERA, and 19 holds. His 2.83 expected ERA (per Statcast) was especially impressive; only five AL pitchers threw more innings with a lower xERA. Even so, it's not sustainable to ask one reliever to take on so much responsibility. While Fluharty's surface-level numbers were stellar in August and September, I grew more and more nervous during his outings later in the season. From March through July, he posted a 27.3% strikeout rate, a 9.6% walk rate, and a 38.6% groundball rate. In August and September, his strikeout rate plummeted to 18.4%, his walk rate climbed to 13.2%, and he induced groundballs at just a 29.4% clip. Somehow, he only gave up two runs in 27 appearances during that stretch, but the signs of fatigue were there. His average arm angle fell as the year went on, and with that, the release point on all three of his pitches dropped and moved farther toward the first base side. That could help to explain why he struggled to locate his pitches and put hitters away. Having said all that... I didn't actually plan to write about Mason Fluharty today. What I really want to discuss are the Blue Jays' other left-handed relievers. Fluharty dominated left-handed hitters this past season. He held them to a .189 wOBA and a 1.83 xERA. That's why John Schneider called on him so often. Well, that and the fact that Schneider didn't have enough other lefty relievers he trusted. So, if the Jays are going to give Fluharty a bit of a break in 2027, they'll need some more left-handers they can count on. Here's my question: Are those lefties already in the building? Brendon Little was Toronto's best southpaw in 2025. He looked completely lost early in 2026, but he figured things out by the end of the year – though you wouldn't know it by looking at his overall numbers. Little's 6.35 ERA and negative fWAR obscure just how good he was in the second half. Post-All-Star break, Little looked every bit as dominant as he was before the break in 2025. In 23.2 innings this July, August, and September, he worked to a 2.28 ERA, a 2.47 xERA, and a 37% strikeout rate. His walk rate was still astronomical, but that's just who Little is. He doesn't need to get his walk rate down – he just needs to rack up enough strikeouts that the walks can't hurt him. Another lefty flashed terrific stuff for Toronto late this past season: Brendan Cellucci. The 28-year-old rookie only threw 8.2 innings, but in that tiny sample, he struck out 11 batters. His four-seam and sweeper made a perfect pair. The Blue Jays aren't going to save a spot for Cellucci on next year's Opening Day roster. Yet, he has earned the right to stick on the roster this winter and compete for a job in the spring. The fact that he has two option years remaining will hurt his chances to break camp, but it's great that the Jays could have some optionable left-handed depth with big strikeout stuff. That description also applied to Ricky Tiedemann, the last piece of this puzzle. The Blue Jays presumably want Tiedemann to stretch out as a starter in 2027. That means he'll probably start the year with Triple-A Buffalo. However, if the big league club needs a new lefty for the bullpen, Tiedemann will be another option they can call on. So, do the Blue Jays need to bring in another left-handed reliever? Well, it all depends on their internal evaluation of Little, but I'm leaning no. Barring an injury or a surprising trade, Fluharty will be on the Opening Day roster next season. Little is out of minor league options, and his stuff is too good for the Jays to just let him go. So, I'm guessing he makes the OD roster too. It will be a bit of a gamble, but giving up on him would be a gamble too. And with Cellucci and Tiedemann as backup plans, I think gambling on Little is the right move. Ross Atkins will still need to look for bullpen depth this offseason. He should hand out several low-risk minor league contracts, and I expect he'll add one veteran on a guaranteed deal as well. Could that veteran be a southpaw? Sure. It's not like the Jays are starved for righty relievers. But I don't think they're going to be seeking a lefty specialist for the middle innings. The guys they already have have got that covered. View the full article

The Sporting News has been working through its list of the 140 greatest baseball players of all time, taking a different approach from traditional rankings. Instead of placing every player on a single list, the publication has divided its selections into 14 positionless rooms, each representing a different archetype of greatness. The categories include Immortals, Artists, Juggernauts, Supernovas, Unsung, Showmen and several others. Each room contains 10 players whose careers share a common thread. The outlet explained its reasoning behind this approach: “Our ‘rooms’ serve not only to honor the game’s greatest players, but to contextualize their standing in baseball history — for better or worse.” That concept offers an interesting way to look back at Minnesota Twins history, too. The Twins have employed Hall of Famers, award winners, championship heroes and players whose accomplishments have faded from the national conversation. Some former Twins on the Sporting News list might fit into a different category when their careers are viewed through a Minnesota lens. This series will identify two Twins players for each of the 14 rooms, matching their contributions to the themes behind each category. The first installment looks at two players whose accomplishments deserve greater recognition and two pitchers who rose to the occasion when the stakes were highest. Unsung SN describes its Unsung room as a home for players who rank among the greatest in baseball history but have not received their proper recognition. Their accomplishments have been overshadowed by more celebrated stars, historical circumstances or the teams they played for. For the Twins, Kent Hrbek and Dave Goltz fit this description in different ways. One helped build a championship identity in Minnesota, while the other delivered several excellent seasons without receiving the national attention his production warranted. Kent Hrbek Kent Hrbek remains an iconic figure in Minnesota, but his national reputation does not always reflect the quality of his career. A Bloomington native who spent his entire major league career with the Twins, Hrbek became a fixture at first base from 1981 through 1994. His contributions extended well beyond his memorable moments during the franchise's championship runs. Hrbek finished his career with 293 home runs, 1,086 RBI, 1,749 hits and a .282 batting average. He also posted a .367 on-base percentage, a .481 slugging percentage and a 128 OPS+, meaning his overall offensive production was 28% better than league average after adjusting for the era and league. Baseball Reference credits him with 38.6 career wins above replacement. Those are impressive numbers for a player who made only one All-Star appearance. Hrbek finished second in American League Rookie of the Year voting in 1982, but he never became a perennial fixture in national award discussions. His value was often easier to appreciate by watching him play than by looking at the individual accolades attached to his name. Twins fans have plenty of reasons to remember him. Hrbek hit 34 home runs in 1987, helping Minnesota capture its first American League West title in several years. His grand slam in Game 6 of the World Series against the St. Louis Cardinals helped put the Twins on the verge of their first championship. He remained part of the team's core when Minnesota won another title in 1991. Hrbek certainly isn't forgotten in Minnesota. His number 14 is retired, and he remains connected to one of the most successful periods in franchise history. The Unsung label fits because his broader baseball legacy is sometimes smaller than his actual production suggests. He was a productive hitter, a steady presence at first base and an important part of two championship teams. That combination deserves more attention when baseball's greatest players are discussed. Dave Goltz Dave Goltz may not be the first name Twins fans associate with the franchise's greatest pitchers, but his best seasons compare favorably with those of many more recognizable starters. A Minnesota native from Pelican Rapids, Goltz was drafted by the Twins out of Rothsay High School in 1967. He made his major league debut with Minnesota in 1972 and developed into a dependable rotation piece during the following decade. His career totals across three teams included 113 wins, 109 losses and a 3.69 ERA. Goltz's best season came in 1977, when he finished 20-11 with a 3.36 ERA across 303 innings. He was one of only three American League pitchers to win 20 games that season, tying Dennis Leonard and Jim Palmer for the league lead. He followed that performance with a 15-10 record and a 2.49 ERA in 1978. Those seasons demonstrated more than the ability to collect wins. Goltz handled a heavy workload and gave Minnesota a reliable starter during an era when completing games and pitching deep into contests were central responsibilities for a rotation's top arms. Yet his career rarely receives the same attention as other pitchers from Twins history. He did not pitch for Minnesota during a championship season, and the franchise's more celebrated names often occupy the spotlight when fans revisit its past. Goltz's Minnesota roots make his story especially fitting for this category. He was a homegrown player who reached the majors with his hometown organization and produced some of the best seasons of his career in a Twins uniform. His peak deserves to be remembered as one of the franchise's notable pitching accomplishments of the 1970s. Showmen The Sporting News defines its Showmen as players who commanded attention and performed when the stakes were highest. These players had a knack for turning baseball's biggest moments into lasting memories. Their personalities might draw a crowd, but their defining characteristic was the ability to deliver when the pressure mounted. For Minnesota, few pitchers better represent that idea than Jack Morris and Frank Viola. Both helped lead the Twins to World Series championships, and each became associated with a defining moment in franchise history. Jack Morris Jack Morris spent only one season with the Twins, but it was enough to secure his place in franchise history. Minnesota signed the veteran right-hander before the 1991 season, bringing in a pitcher whose confidence and willingness to take the ball made him a compelling fit for a team chasing a championship. Morris saved his most memorable performance for Game 7 of the World Series against the Atlanta Braves. With the championship hanging in the balance, he matched Atlanta's John Smoltz in a tense pitching duel that remained scoreless through nine innings. Morris returned for the 10th and kept the Braves off the scoreboard again. He finished with 10 shutout innings, seven hits allowed, two walks and eight strikeouts on 122 pitches. Gene Larkin's walk-off single in the bottom of the inning gave Minnesota a 1-0 victory and delivered its second World Series title in four years. Morris earned World Series MVP honors after allowing just three runs across 23 innings in his three starts during the series. The performance captured what made Morris such a compelling big-game pitcher. He was not simply relying on reputation or trying to survive another inning. He continued to challenge hitters, maintain his composure and trust that he could find a way through the lineup again. Morris had already won a World Series with Detroit in 1984 and would win another with Toronto in 1992. However, his performance in Minnesota remains one of the most memorable pitching efforts in franchise history. His 1991 season was brief, but his Game 7 performance made it unforgettable. That is precisely what makes Morris a Showman. When baseball provided its biggest stage, he delivered a performance worthy of the moment. Frank Viola Frank Viola helped establish the Twins as a championship team before Morris arrived. A left-handed starter nicknamed “Sweet Music,” Viola was one of Minnesota's most important pitchers during the 1980s and played a central role in the club's 1987 World Series championship. Viola started three games during that World Series, receiving a decision in each one. He won Games 1 and 7, helping Minnesota finish off the St. Louis Cardinals in seven games. His performance earned him World Series MVP honors. His place in Twins history goes beyond that October run. Viola followed his World Series success with the best regular season of his career in 1988, finishing 24-7 with a 2.64 ERA. He won the American League Cy Young Award, started the All-Star Game and finished 10th in American League MVP voting. Those accomplishments made Viola more than a pitcher who happened to be on a championship roster. He was a front-line starter capable of carrying a rotation, and he showed he could maintain that level of performance when the competition intensified. His World Series run also gave Minnesota a lasting image of a young ace emerging on the biggest stage. Viola fits the Showmen category because he excelled at the moments that define a player's legacy. His World Series MVP award and Cy Young season remain two of the most significant pitching achievements in Twins history. Four Different Legacies Hrbek, Goltz, Morris and Viola took different paths to becoming important figures in Minnesota baseball. Hrbek's consistent production and championship contributions deserve a broader national appreciation, while Goltz's peak seasons remain underrecognized outside discussions of 1970s Twins history. Morris and Viola, meanwhile, showed how a pitcher can define a team's biggest moments. Their postseason performances helped transform talented Minnesota clubs into championship teams. The Sporting News' room concept encourages baseball fans to look beyond a single ranking and consider what makes a player memorable. For Twins fans, these four players show that greatness can be found in sustained production, overlooked excellence and the ability to deliver when an entire season is on the line. Who else should be considered for the categories listed above? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

The most dominant part of the San Diego Padres during the regular season, the bullpen was called upon a lot to bail out the starters in 2026. So much so that the Friars went with a "chaos pitching plan" just before the trade deadline to take advantage of the talent of their relief pitchers. Of course, there were some missteps in the postseason that contributed to the Padres' season ending, but we won't dwell on that. Today, we hand out grades to those durable relievers, who rarely let the team down throughout the regular season. Not included here is Rodolfo Duran, the rookie catcher who made his MLB debut after 11 minor-league seasons. Duran pitched twice, allowing nine runs over three innings. He would get an A just for the experience. Previous entries: Grading Every Padres Position Player (2026) | Grading Every Padres Starting Pitcher (2026) Regular-season innings pitched in parentheses. Adrian Morejon (86 IP): B+ The Padres' bullpen leader in appearances (76), innings, and holds (28), all career highs, drastically improved his profile to become the top left-handed setup man in MLB and perhaps the best regardless of what hand he throws with. The most remarkable thing about his performance is he increased the velocity of his four-seam fastball from 97.6 mph to 99.4 miles per hour, which led to a career-high 107 strikeouts, 36 more than his previous best (in an extra 12⅓ innings). He will be a very coveted free agent this offseason. Wandy Peralta (77⅓ IP): B- You could probably stump a lot of folks with this fact: Peralta was second among Padres relievers in innings pitched. He is no longer a leverage reliever, notching just four holds, the same as last year. That doesn't mean he didn't have value; Peralta was a key middle reliever that mostly kept games in the situation he inherited. Bradgley Rodriguez (74 IP): A Everyone knew that Rodriguez, who turned 21 in May, was going to be a key part of the bullpen. But the right-hander turned out to be very valuable, moving into a leverage role as the season progressed. Rodriguez finished third on the team in holds with 17, posting a 2.78 FIP (2.19 ERA). He will be a huge part of the bullpen moving forward, especially if Morejon leaves in free agency. Mason Miller (70 IP): A+ Miller just turned in one of the better seasons by a reliever in MLB history with his utter dominance. While fans will remember the postseason walk-off hit he gave up, don't forget about his season-opening 34⅔-inning scoreless streak, a club record. He was so dominant that his FIP (1.17) was lower than his ERA (1.37), while leading the NL in games finished (57) and saves (38). His slider was missed by hitters by an average of 9.4 inches, the second season in a row that pitch was the best in MLB in that regard. He also led MLB relievers with 518 pitches at 100 mph or better (he threw 1,149 total pitches). Yuki Matsui (64 IP): B+ One of the more underrated stories in the Padres' bullpen, the left-hander had a terrific season. While he finished with a 1.83 ERA, Matsui had a 4.18 FIP, perhaps indicating a little good fortune. He walked too many (13.8% walk rate) and had a slightly above-average 26.2% strikeout rate. Matsui was really good down the stretch, allowing just one run in his final 23⅔ innings, including the postseason. He has the ability to opt-out of his contract, but is due $13.5 million over the next two seasons. Kyle Hart (64 IP): B- Hart had the difficult role of being the early long-man in case the starter had to be yanked, and the left-hander was pretty good overall despite his 4.92 ERA (3.63 FIP). He gave up 14 runs over 4⅔ innings in three outings, which will inflate a reliever's ERA quickly. But there was a 17-game stretch in which he had a 1.88 FIP (1.82 ERA) with 27 strikeouts over 24⅔ innings, including three runs in one-third of an inning in one outing. Ron Marinaccio (47 IP): D The right-hander was designated for assignment after 33 games and a 5.31 FIP (4.79 ERA). He provided little value to the league's best bullpen. Jason Adam (34⅓ IP): B His season started about two weeks late due to his recovery from a quad injury from last season. But he was the primary right-handed setup man until a strained right shoulder sidelined him at the beginning of July until returning during the last week of the regular season. He posted a 4.85 FIP (2.62 ERA) and is also due to become a free agent. David Morgan (33⅓ IP): C+ Coming off a strong and surprising 2025 in his MLB debut season, the right-hander had a topsy-turvy 2026 that included early struggles, a knee injury and an August demotion. He was very good when he came back up, allowing three earned runs in 11⅓ innings, striking out 13 but walking nine. Walks remain a problem, which could be the reason he did not pitch in any of the six postseason games. Jeremiah Estrada (31 IP): B- This feels like a lost season for Estrada. The right-hander went on the injured list three times (right elbow tendinitis, right knee inflammation, right shoulder impingement), which limited him to 33 appearances. Still, he was good as usual when available, with a 3.04 FIP (3.48 ERA). Jhony Brito (9 IP): C The right-hander came back from an internal brace procedure and flexor tendon surgery on his right elbow in the second half of the season. Brito was a backup option stashed at Triple-A El Paso as he appeared in five games and allowed three runs in nine innings. Alek Jacob (5 IP): C- Jacob came up three times and appeared in just three games, allowing three runs in five innings. The right-hander was DFA'd after the season and went unclaimed, ultimately getting outrighted to the minors. Bryan Hoeing (0 IP): N/A After missing most of 2025 with a right shoulder injury, Hoeing was diagnosed with a flexor tendon injury in his right elbow that required season-ending surgery. View the full article

Matthew Wood (Matt Wood ) is not on the Milwaukee Brewers' top 30 prospects list according to most publications, yet he drew a walk 18% of the time and slugged 18 home runs in Double-A Biloxi this year. Now, the 25-year-old backstop is tearing it up in the Arizona Fall League. Should the Brewers protect him on the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 Draft, or should they take the risk to allow him to play baseball from the get-go next year? View the full article