DiamondCentric

The 2026 MLB Draft will feature 20 round draft and like last season, festivities will take place over the course of two days. Rounds 1-4 will take place from 1:00 PM - 7:45 PM E.T. on Saturday , and then rounds 5-20 will be all day Sunday from 11:30 AM - 7:30 E.T. Day one is split into three sections with picks 1-10 being broadcast on NBC/Peacock only. Picks 11-40 will be on MLB Network and the remainder of the draft will be on MLB.TV. The entirety of the draft Sunday will be on MLB TV, MLB.com, or MLB+. The Boston Red Sox will make three selections on day one of the draft. 20th Overall (Round 1) 67th Overall (Competitive Balance Round B) [Acquired in trade: Caleb Durbin, Andruw Monasterio, and Anthony Seigler for Kyle Harrison, Shane Drohan, and David Hamilton with Milwaukee Brewers] 96th Overall (Round 3) The Red Sox forfeited their second and fifth-highest selections, as well as $1 million in draft pool money, in this years' draft after they signed Ranger Suarez to a five-year, $130 million contract. This is due to Suárez being offered the qualifying offer by the Philadelphia Phillies. Per the MLB rules, the Red Sox had to forfeit those picks because they eclipsed the $241 million Competitive Balance Tax Threshold. Baseball is incredibly unique in the ways that address draft picks. Each team has its bonus pool which is assigned by MLB in the spring based off of league-wide revenue the previous season. Along with that, each draft pick is assigned its own slot value, which is essentially the expected cost to sign a player at that spot. Teams don't have to follow that number exactly, which is why you see teams sign players or over or under slot values. For example, in last years draft, the Los Angeles Angles had the 2nd overall selection which was valued at $10,252,700 but ultimately ended up signing their selection Tyler Bremner for only $7,689,525, nearly $3 million below the projected value of the selection. Teams can then use the money they save at the top half of the draft to lure better players with more bonus money later on in the draft. The Red Sox have $8,219,200 to play with in this year's draft, the eighth-lowest pool, with the slot value of their 20th overall pick coming in at $4,373,900. Another note regarding slot money from Baseball America: "In the MLB draft, each pick inside the first 10 rounds comes with assigned slot values. The sum of those slot values creates each team’s bonus pool. From rounds 11-20, players can sign for up to $150,000 without counting towards the bonus pool. Anything beyond that value does count towards the pool. Teams are free to sign players for more than an assigned slot value or less than an assigned slot value, though going over a bonus pool comes with penalties." It's also worth noting that with the CBA expiring this offseason and the MLB's proposal to change the draft format, this likely the last time we see the draft in the format we see it in today. We here at Talk Sox will continue to feature the Red Sox Draft Tracker, which will be kept up-to-date, not just as the draft happens, but also as we learn about the signing bonuses for each draft pick throughout the signing period. Thanks for joining us during one of the most exciting times of the season and keep coming back for updates! View the full article

MIAMI — Sandy Alcantara's impressive seven-game winning streak came to an end on Friday night at loanDepot Park. In front of a lively crowd of 15,565, the Cleveland Guardians kept Miami's bats relatively quiet in a 3-2 victory. For the Marlins, it was their first loss since July 2. Despite being tagged with the loss, Alcantara was excellent in his final start before the All-Star break. The Dominican right-hander tossed seven innings of three-run ball while striking out eight. It marked his MLB-leading 14th quality start of the season. He heads into the break with a 3.99 ERA and an MLB-high 130 ⅔ innings pitched. At this point a year ago, Alcantara was entering the break under far different circumstances. Through his first 18 starts of last season after returning from Tommy John surgery, he was 4-9 with a 7.22 ERA. "This year feels much different, but more so because of how great we've been doing," Alcantara said postgame. "My mentality has also changed a lot. The way I've been attacking hitters this year and going deep into games has really helped." When discussing his latest outing, Alcantara credited his relatively new cutter. "It's been a great pitch. I don't think some of the hitters know I have that yet, so I've been getting a lot of swing-and-miss," he said with a chuckle. On Friday, Alcantara threw the cutter 20% of the time and generated whiffs on half of those pitches. "He finished up the first half terrifically," Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said postgame. "This run we've been on, he's played a huge part in it because you know every fifth or sixth day you're getting at least six strong innings and a chance to win a game." Alcantara's final line on Friday: 7 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 8 SO, 0 BB. A case could be made that Miami's ace should be considered for a spot on the National League All-Star roster should the need for another pitcher arise at the last moment. Miami's offense on Friday night consisted of a pair of solo home runs from Heriberto Hernández and Leo Jiménez. For Hernández, it was his thirteenth home run of the season, tying him for the team lead. It's been a remarkable turnaround for the Dominican outfielder, who was optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville earlier this season after posting a .474 OPS through his first 22 games. Since being recalled on May 7, he's slugging over .600 with a .940 OPS (tops among Marlins players during that span). Jiménez's home run was his second in three games after going homerless through his first 37 games of the season. It was also just the fifth home run by a Marlins third baseman all season. Uncharacteristically, though, the Marlins were held hitless with runners in scoring position. The Marlins will look to even the series on Saturday afternoon behind Eury Pérez. View the full article

Similar to 2025, the 2026 MLB draft will feature 20 rounds, with a slight adjustment to its weekend format. Prior to 2025, the draft was a two-day event, with 40 total rounds. Last year, the draft was over three days, and this year it will be over two days. The first four rounds (which is one more than last year’s first day) will be later today, starting at 1:00 ET. You can catch the first 10 picks live on NBC or on Peacock. Picks 11-40 can be found on MLB Network or streaming on MLB.com or on MLB.TV starting at 2:30 ET. Starting at 4:00 ET, picks 41-135 will complete day one of draft coverage, and those can be watched the same way as picks 11-40. The rest of the draft will take place tomorrow, starting at 11:30 am ET, and can be found on MLB.com or on MLB.TV. While 16 rounds may seem like a lot in one day, last year it was 17 on the second day, and in prior years, they had 20-round days. The Twins will make five picks on day one. 3rd Overall (Round 1) 43rd overall (Round 2) 74th overall (Competitive Balance Round B) 79th overall (Round 3) 107th overall (Round 4) Jamie Cameron, Twins Daily’s MLB Prospect Guru and Draft Expert, has a mock draft board that can be found here. The Twins will have the fifth-largest bonus pool ($16,929,600) in the league. The pool is determined by assigning a slot value to each pick in the first 10 rounds. In rounds 11-20, players can sign for up to $150,000 and not count toward the bonus pool number. As a reminder, teams can exceed their bonus pool allotment by up to five percent before incurring any future pick penalties. No team in the bonus pool era has ever exceeded that five percent threshold. More information on the entire draft and the pick allotments for the Twins' specific picks can be found in the Twins Draft Primer Article. Twins Daily will also feature the Twins Draft Tracker, which will be kept up to date not only during the draft but through the entire signing period, so keep coming back for updates! View the full article

The weekend has arrived where the San Diego Padres will begin to add new faces to the organization through the amateur draft. In the last two years, the Padres added high school left-handers Kash Mayfield (2024) and Kruz Schoolcraft (2025). They currently rank as the No. 2 and No. 5 prospects on Padres Mission's Top 20 list. The Friars have drafted a high school player with each of their last nine first-round picks under A.J. Preller, the Padres' president of baseball operations and general manager. The draft begins with the first four rounds Saturday, then finishing Sunday with Rounds 5 through 20. TV coverage begins at 10 a.m. PT on NBC and Peacock, with it switching to MLB.com, MLB Network, MLB.tv and MLB+ at 11:30 a.m. Sunday’s telecast begins at 8:30 a.m. PT on MLB.com, MLB.tv and MLB+. This year, the Padres have the 21st selection of the first round. That will be one of five picks the Friars make on the first day. In addition to one pick in each round, they also have a compensation selection for making a qualifying offer to right-hander Dylan Cease, who ended up signing with the Toronto Blue Jays. Because of the size of the contract (seven years, $210 million) and with the Padres being a competitive-balance tax payor, they received an extra fourth-round pick (No. 134). That also gives the Padres extra money to work with in their draft pool. The Padres’ pool this year is $9,479,000. While there are slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, teams can sign players for any amount as long as it fits into their pool. Deals are often made with certain players in order to redistribute money to another player. Teams can spend up to 5% more than their draft pool without incurring a penalty. No team has ever spent more than 5% in the 14 years this rule has been in place. Last year, 20 of 30 teams surpassed their bonus pool. Here are the slot values for each of the Padres’ picks: First round (21st pick): $4,224,700 Second round (60th): $1,561,000 Third round (97th): $808,100 Fourth round (124th): $620,300 Fourth round (comp, 134th): $563,900 Fifth round (157th): $449,500 Sixth round (186th): $350,100 Seventh round (215th): $276,400 Eighth round (245th): $226,300 Ninth round (275th): $205,000 10th round (305th): $193,700 Players drafted in the 11th through 20th rounds do not technically have a slot value, although they are soft-capped at $150,000 without counting toward the bonus pool. Any amount above $150,000 will go against the cap. That amount also applies to undrafted free agents. Draft picks have until July 27 at 2 p.m. PT to sign. Who should the Padres take with their top pick? Do they stick with a high school player or change it up with a college star? View the full article

The Blue Jays still have two games left to play before the break, but the All-Star week festivities are already getting started. The HBCU Swingman Classic was last night, and the Futures Game is tomorrow. The Home Run Derby is set for Monday, and then you can watch Ernie Clement, Dylan Cease, and Louis Varland suit up for the AL All-Stars on Tuesday night. Today, however, might have the most anticipated event of them all. It's Day 1 of the 2026 MLB Draft. This afternoon, representatives from every team will head to the Pennsylvania Convention Center. At 1:00 pm Eastern, the White Sox will kick it all off with the first overall pick. The Blue Jays won't make their first selection until the start of the second round. Initially, they were slated to pick 29th due to their AL pennant-winning season. However, their highest pick was pushed back 10 spots because their 2025 payroll exceeded the second luxury tax threshold. As I write this, our Mock Draft Consensus Board has the Blue Jays taking two-way prospect Archer Horn with the 39th overall pick. At previous points in the draft cycle, the Consensus Board also linked the Jays to Texas A&M outfielder Caden Sorrell and prep infielder Cole Prosek. In total, Toronto will only make three picks today: No. 39, No. 103, and No. 131. In addition to having their highest pick moved back 10 slots, the Blue Jays sacrificed their second- and fifth-highest picks when they signed Cease. The right-hander recevied a qualifying offer from the Padres last November. That fifth-highest pick was the one the Jays would have received as competition for losing Bo Bichette to the Mets; like Cease, Bichette also rejected a qualifying offer. Unfortunately, the Blue Jays also won't have a big bonus pool to work with in this year's draft. The fewer picks a team has and the lower those picks are, the lower the cumulative slot value of all that team's picks is going to be. Toronto's $5,543,100 bonus pool is the second-lowest in the 2026 MLB Draft, ahead of only the Dodgers ($3,951,900). For comparison, the Pirates have the largest bonus pool, with $19,130,700 to spend. Speaking to Sportsnet's Shi Davidi, Blue Jays amateur scouting director Marc Tramuta addressed how his team's small bonus pool could affect the draft strategy: "It's probably difficult to say I'm going to take more than a couple high school players, just given the size of the bonus pool...That's not going to take us out of the market on anybody. It just might not be the volume that we did last year.” Obvious talents like Trey Yesavage and JoJo Parker won't be so readily available for the Blue Jays this year, but that doesn't mean the draft will be any less exciting – it just means the Jays will have to be more strategic with their picks. You can follow their selections on our 2026 Blue Jays Draft Tracker, which will be kept up to date throughout the draft and the subsequent signing period. More importantly, you can voice all of your opinions about Day 1 in this thread. Let's get started! View the full article

Draft Day is finally upon us! You've found the right place to follow along as the Milwaukee Brewers get to work in the 2026 MLB Draft. Consider this your home base for the day's events — you're all invited to be a part of the conversation, so pull up a chair, grab a refreshment, and let's watch what Matt Arnold & Co. have in store for us today. Unlike previous seasons, the Brewers have a much smaller draft pool, so if they plan to get creative, they're going to have a narrow band in which to work. Feel free to make your thoughts known in the comments as the picks roll in. Whether you love the pick, hate it, or have never heard of the guy in your life, we want to hear from you. How the Draft Works This Year The 2026 MLB Draft is a two-day event held July 11–12 in Philadelphia, PA. Here's how it breaks down: Today (July 11): Rounds 1–4 — roughly 135 picks Tomorrow (July 12): Rounds 5–20 — the final 16 rounds So today is the fun part. This is where the bonus money gets spent and the names you'll actually remember get called. Twenty rounds total, but the first four are where the real money and the real intrigue live. Want the full logistical rundown — pick-by-pick slot values, the combine breakdown, and how the bonus pool math shakes out? We've got you covered in our 2026 Brewers Draft Primer. The Brewers' Picks Milwaukee holds ten selections in the first ten rounds, headlined by the 25th overall pick in tonight's first round. Here's the full slate: Round Pick # Slot Value 1 25th $3,696,000 2 66th $1,353,100 3 102nd $770,600 4 130th $585,700 5 163rd $425,400 6 192nd $333,200 7 221st $264,100 8 251st $220,400 9 281st $202,500 10 311th $191,900 Bonus pool: $8,042,900 — 25th in MLB. Not exactly a war chest, so expect Milwaukee to be creative about spreading the money around. One note for the number-crunchers: the Brewers traded their Competitive Balance Round B pick (67th overall) to Boston in a prior transaction, so there's a gap between the first- and second-rounders you might otherwise expect. As always, teams can exceed their pool by up to 5% without a real penalty (overages get taxed at 75%), and slot values ticked up 2.5% from last year. Who Are the Brewers Taking at 25? On our final aggregated mock draft board, this name popped up at pick 25: Carson Bolemon, a left-handed prep arm out of Southside Christian High School in South Carolina. Our final mock draft has the Brewers grabbing him as "the most polished prep arm in the class". Here's the quick scouting snapshot: Fastball: Sits 92–94 mph, has touched 97, with the kind of command you rarely see from a high schooler Curveball: Upper 70s, plenty of promise Slider: Low 80s with strong spin Changeup: The one pitch that still lags behind, but there's runway there The 19-year-old lefty was the standout arm on the U18 U.S. National Team and has a real shot to be the first prep arm off the board. He's committed to Wake Forest, so signability will be worth watching — but a polished, projectable lefty is exactly the kind of profile the Brewers' pitching development machine tends to turn into gold. What Comes After 25 The mock has a few more names to watch later in the day: Round 2 (66th): Joseph Contreras, RHP, Blessed Trinity Catholic HS (GA) — yes, that Contreras bloodline, but also not that Contreras bloodline; he's the son of former big-league pitcher José Contreras Round 3 (102nd): Caden Bogenpohl, OF, Missouri State Round 4 (130th): Brady Harris, OF, Trinity Christian Academy HS (FL) Follow Along We'll be updating throughout the evening as the picks come in. For real-time tracking and the community's running board, keep these two tabs open: 2026 Brewers Mock Draft Board 2026 Brewers Draft Board So — who do you want the Brewers to take at 25? Are you on board with Bolemon, or is there another name you're hoping slides to Milwaukee? Sound off in the comments, and let's enjoy Draft Day together. Go Brewers! View the full article

Since becoming the Royals' general manager in 2021, JJ Picollo has overseen four drafts. While every draft is shaped by the talent available, several consistent trends have emerged that may offer insight into how Kansas City will approach the upcoming 2026 MLB Draft. Position Players Come First In each of his four drafts, Piccolo has selected a position player in the first round. 2022: Gavin Cross - OF 2023: Blake Mitchell - C 2024: Jac Caglianone - 1B/P 2025: Sean Gamble - OF 2025: Josh Hammond - SS (Prospect promotion incentive pick) While Caglianone was a two-way player in college, nearly every scouting report projected him as a full-time hitter in professional baseball. The Royals have consistently invested in premium offensive talent at the top of the draft. With the exception of Cross, these players currently occupy a spot in the top five of the RoyalsKeep prospects rankings, with Caglianone already an everyday starter in the Royals’ big-league lineup. Pitcher-Heavy Following Round 1 Picollo has consistently favored pitchers in the early rounds after round 1. In the five picks following the first round, 80% of the selections have been for a pitcher. When looking at rounds 2-10, 68% of the picks have been for pitchers. In 2024, the Royals selected seven straight pitchers after taking Caglianone in the first round, highlighted by the current No. 2 prospect, David Shields. The lone exception came in 2022, when Kansas City selected third baseman Cayden Wallace with the second pick before selecting pitchers in the following rounds. The strategy has already produced several of the organization's top pitching prospects. While none of these pitchers have yet broken into the majors, six of these early-round pitchers are currently in the top 20 prospects. #2 David Shields | 2024 Round 2 #7 Drew Beam | 2024 Round 3 #11 Michael Lombardi | 2025 Round 2 #13 Justin Lamkin | 2025 Competitive balance round B #15 Blake Wolters | 2023 Round 2 #16 Steven Zobac | 2022 Round 4 Conscious of Slot Money Picollo has shown a willingness to sign players above the pick’s slot value, especially when it comes to signing prep players. Five of the six highest draft above-slot bonuses have been to high school players. Three of those went to early-round pitchers, with a couple of late-round players securing larger-than-expected bonuses. The high-bonus high schoolers are usually funded through early-to mid-round college players going under-slot. Notably, the Royals have signed more players under-slot (32) than they have over-slot (21) to help in redistributing the pool money. However, not all early-round high school grads commanded an over-slot bonus. When the Royals drafted Blake Mitchell with their first pick in 2023, they signed him for just over $1 million under slot to spread their pool money throughout the rest of the draft class. This was the only time in four years where Picollo spent significantly under the slot value for a top pick, the closest being Carson Roccaforte (2nd round competitive balance, $259k under slot) also in 2023 and Nolan Sailors (4th round, $435K under slot) in 2025. High-Impact Prep Players The Royals have not been hesitant in selecting high school players early in rounds. Almost half (7 of 15) players selected within the first three rounds have gone towards high-impact high school players. Picollo, in general, is not afraid to select high school players. 19 (23%) of selections have been given to high school players. However, if you exclude the first three rounds, the earliest selected high school player was in the 13th round. These selections are typically developmental bets with higher ceilings but longer timelines than the available college players at that stage of the draft. Five of these late-round picks ultimately did not sign with the Royals and opted to play college baseball. Overall Position Distribution Positionally, the Royals have favored pitchers with 51 (61%) of their 83 selections. 13 picks have been dedicated to outfields, 9 to shortstops, 5 to catchers, 3 first basemen (including Caglianone, who notably converted to the outfield), 2 third basemen, and 0 second basemen. This mirrors the trend of selecting a bat first, followed by a run of pitchers in early rounds. The Royals also are unwilling to commit draft capital towards too many low-upside positions like first and third base. What This Means for 2026 While every draft is different depending on the players available for selection, Piccolo has left a general outline for how the Royals approach the draft. Expect the Royals to likely select an offensive player with the 6th overall pick, followed by a run of pitchers. The DiamondCentric mock draft has OF Drew Burress slotted as the sixth pick. Keep an eye out for high school players in the early and late rounds, with college players dominating the middle of the draft. View the full article

I take MLB mock draft rankings from major industry outlets like MLB Pipeline, ESPN, The Athletic (and many others) to form a consensus board, with a working hypothesis that using this approach will eliminate some of the noise and variance in MLB Draft mock rankings. This is the final mock draft board, locked in just before the 2026 MLB Draft on Saturday, July 11. Round 1: Ace Reese, 3B, Mississippi State Reese has raked for Mississippi State since transferring from Houston ahead of his sophomore campaign. He's one of the better dual hit/power threats in the class, with any ceiling on his value being placed by an uncertain defensive home and limited supplementary tools. Reese stands 6'4, 220, and has primarily played third base and first base in college. It's a solid arm, but fringe-to-average run and fielding tools. That might mean a long-term home at first base, which requires a greater level of offensive production. Offensively, Reese shines. It's good bat speed and excellent raw power. He can homer to any part of the park (21 in 2025). Reese displays good bat-to-ball skills, both in and out of the strike zone, and he takes plenty of walks. A slightly elevated strikeout rate is rooted in his propensity to chase and expand the zone. If he can rein that in, he'll be a nightmare at-bat. Reese finished 2026 with a .336/.432/.721 line with 24 home runs (27 XBH), a 14 BB%, a 21.6 K%, and a 144 wRC+. His approach and defensive home remain the only questions in an excellent, offensively driven profile. Round 2: Blake Bryant, RHP, Citizens Christian Academy, GA Bryant is a projectable prep righty standing 6'5, 180 pounds, currently committed to Clemson. He's jumped up boards throughout the cycle thanks to consistently outstanding performances on the summer circuit. Bryant's velocity has ticked up in the last 12 months. His fastball is up to 96 mph with run and ride. He pairs it with a sweeper in the low 80s, a curveball that sits in the high 70s, and a split change that's a bit firm currently. The command can come and go a bit with Bryant, which is typical for a lanky prep arm. It's a strong arsenal on which to build. It's easy to envision him being a problem when he fills out a bit more and polishes his repertoire. Round 3: Ethan Bass, SS, Glenbrook North HS, IL Ethan Bass is a prep shortstop out of Illinois who is one of the better defenders on the dirt on the prep side. While he doesn't have the same explosive offensive upside as some other prep hitters in the class, he performed extremely well on the summer showcase circuit last year, showing the makings of an above-average hit tool with a good approach at the plate, and possible average power when it's all said and done. Defensively, Bass shines. He's an excellent defender with a good internal clock, smooth actions, excellent lateral quickness, and the ability to make any throw necessary for the position. You don't find too many prep profiles that are this complete, even if he lacks a standout offensive tool. Bass is committed to Wake Forest and bears some similarities to previous Demon Deacon shortstop Marek Houston. Round 4: Ethan Norby, LHP, East Carolina Norby is a college lefty who has established a three-year track record of performance at ECU. Norby is undersized for a starter at 5'10, 200 pounds. It's a clean delivery with a ton of strikes (6.8 BB% in 2026). Norby's fastball is a little underwhelming, sitting 89-92 mph, touching 93-94 mph. Norby's best pitch is his slider, a 3,000 rpm sweeper that sits 85 mph and routinely generates a ton of horizontal break. Norby also throws a cutter and a changeup, though both of these pitches lag behind his fastball/slider combination. Norby managed a 4.06 FIP in 90.1 IP in 2026, striking out 31.8% of hitters while walking 6.8%. Norby has plenty of assets, with a unique delivery and interesting release traits, but he'll need to add velo if he's to stick as a starter as a pro. Free Agent Compensation Round: Bryce Hill, RHP, Greenwich Country Day HS, CT Hill is a projectable right-handed prep pitcher out of Connecticut who already stands 6'5, 220 pounds with a ton of starter traits; he's currently committed to Stanford. Hill has a fairly extensive track record as a high schooler. His fastball, a sinker, now sits in the 94-95 mph range with more to come as Hill fills out. It's complemented by two distinct breaking pitches, a firm slider and a slower, downer curveball that both show promise, with the slider further along in development. Hill also shows feel for a changeup. There's an enticing combination of size, stuff, and enough strikes here. If Hill can be tempted away from his Stanford commitment, a year or two in a pro system doing some pitch design work could raise his ceiling further. Curious to see the players around the San Diego Padres picks in the draft? Click on the button below to view the entire mock draft board! View the full article

Walker Buehler hasn't logged a 150-inning season since 2021, and while he's on track to buck that trend in 2026, he's falling victim to an earned run average north of five. In this video, we'll break down where he's getting hit the hardest, what kind of pitcher he needs to be going forward, and the skills he can harness to turn this season around. View the full article

Kazuma Okamoto is the only Toronto Blue Jays hitter with 20 or more homers (or 10, for that matter). He's using a variety of components to generate this power and be the team's leader in long balls. In this video, we'll break down everything from his bat speed to an approach that opens up the chance for even better power numbers in future seasons. View the full article

Mitch Voit is the New York Mets' sixth-ranked prospect, per our rankings. The 2025 38th overall pick is already in High-A Brooklyn, and he's significantly improved his slash line from a year ago when he had a cup of coffee in Single-A St. Lucie. In this video, we'll break down his 1-2 punch of a skillset and how the middle infielder could slot into the big league ball club's future plans. View the full article

The Twins have several players who make sense as trade candidates. Ryan Jeffers might be one of the most obvious names, and one of the biggest mistakes they could make moving.View the full article

Yuki Matsui's 2.23 ERA tells a simple story: A left-handed reliever misses bats at an elite rate, strands nearly every baserunner he allows, and has become another dependable late-inning arm for the San Diego Padres. The good news? The results support that story. But they also raise one important question: Why do the projection metrics paint such a different picture? Both his FIP and xFIP sit above 4.90, a gap that usually points toward regression. Most of the time, that kind of separation suggests a pitcher has benefited from good fortune. Matsui's season doesn't fit that explanation. He is a reliever who has learned to survive baseball's highest-leverage moments without relying on the weapon that usually defines elite bullpen arms: the strikeout. That starts with his ability to miss bats. According to Baseball Savant, Matsui ranks in the 98th percentile in whiff rate across Major League Baseball, proof that hitters still struggle to pick up his arsenal. His splitter remains his best weapon, while his slider gives hitters a completely different look behind a fastball that sits around 92 mph. By itself, that profile isn’t unusual. Plenty of relievers generate whiffs. What separates Matsui happens after hitters make contact. His 94.6% left-on-base rate is almost impossible to sustain over a full season. The easy explanation is luck. The real question is whether luck explains all of it. With runners in scoring position from the fifth inning on, the picture changes. Pitcher PA BA xBA Whiff% Hard Hit% Attack Angle Bryan Baker 27 .038 .106 46.3 25 14° Chase Burns 20 .100 .151 42.4 30.8 11° Yuki Matsui 26 .143 .115 39.4 42.9 15° Gabe Speier 25 .083 .120 23.7 29.4 9° One number immediately stands out: Matsui owns one of the highest hard-hit rates in the group. In theory, that should lead to more offensive production. Instead, only Bryan Baker has allowed a lower expected batting average, and Baker gets there by overwhelming hitters with strikeouts. Matsui arrives at the same destination by taking a different route. His strikeout rate with runners in scoring position is just 19.2%, one of the lowest among these pitchers. Baker is above 40%. Chase Burns sits above 30%. Instead, the southpaw is surviving in the pressure moments by preventing hits. That distinction changes the entire evaluation of his season. Hard-Hit% measures exit velocity, not where the ball goes. A hard-hit ball can become a home run or a harmless fly ball. Launch angle often determines the difference. For Matsui, opponents have produced an average Attack Angle of 15 degrees, the highest among this group. They've hit the ball hard, but much of that contact has followed trajectories that favor the defense instead of producing extra-base hits. His .100 BABIP with runners in scoring position stops looking like a fluke once the contact profile enters the discussion. Statcast reaches the same conclusion. His expected batting average (.115) is actually lower than the .143 batting average he's allowed. That calls for a different interpretation of his season. Regression still belongs in the conversation because a left-on-base rate approaching 95% rarely survives a full year. Matsui also continues to issue too many walks, creating traffic that helps explain why FIP and xFIP remain skeptical. What those metrics don't capture as well is what happens after that traffic appears. The answer goes back to his arsenal. His fastball has become less prominent since arriving in the majors, while the Padres have leaned harder into the combination that best fits his strengths. The splitter disappears beneath the strike zone and generates empty swings. The slider changes both timing and swing plane. Hitters rarely get the same look twice within an at-bat. There's also a human element behind this season. Matsui opened the year on the injured list for the third straight year before returning in May. Many relievers need weeks to regain their feel after missing part of spring training. Matsui found his almost immediately, put together one of San Diego's longest scoreless streaks out of the bullpen, and resumed handling inherited runners as if he had never left. The second half will determine how much of his ERA belongs to variance. His performance with runners in scoring position already points to a skill that extends beyond luck. Some relievers escape jams by missing every bat. Matsui has found another way: turning contact into far less damage than it should produce. View the full article

I take MLB mock draft rankings from major industry outlets like MLB Pipeline, ESPN, The Athletic (and many others) to form a consensus board, with a working hypothesis that using this approach will eliminate some of the noise and variance in MLB Draft mock rankings. This is the final mock draft board, locked in just before the 2026 MLB Draft on Saturday, July 11. Round 1: Carson Bolemon, LHP, Southside Christian HS, SC Bolemon is part of an exciting crop of prep arms getting first-round consideration in the 2026 class. While he'll be 19 on draft day, it's an enticing combination of size, present stuff, and pitchability that makes him one of the more polished high school arms in recent years. Bolemon has a clean delivery and operates from a three-quarters slot. His fastball has been up to 97 mph, but will typically sit in the 92-94 mph range. The standout trait with the pitch is his command of it, as Bolemon can manipulate it throughout the strike zone with ease. Bolemom pairs his fastball with two promising breakers, an upper 70s curve and a slider that sit in the low 80s, with his changeup lagging behind the breaking pitches in both usage and effectiveness. Bolemon was the best arm on U18 US National team last summer (on a team that included Gio Rojas) and has a good chance to be the first prep arm off the board. He's currently committed to Wake Forest. Round 2: Joseph Contreras, RHP, Blessed Trinity Catholic HS, GA Joseph Contreras, son of Jose Contreras, is a tall, lean, prep pitcher currently committed to Vanderbilt who took center stage for a brief moment in the WBC as a 17-year-old, competing for Brazil against a stacked Team USA lineup. Contreras' fastball sits 94-97 mph and has been up to 100 mph. It's a quick arm, and one can see him sustaining his velocity more consistently with a bit of added weight and strength. For secondaries, there's a mid-80s slider that holds good spin rates and flashes above average to plus, a changeup in the low-80s with good fade, and a split-change/forkball he throws in the high 70s-low 80s that dies at the plate and flashes plus. That's a ton of weapons and velo for a frame still growing and adding strengths who will turn 18 just before the draft. Round 3: Caden Bogenpohl, OF, Missouri State Caden Bogenpohl is one of the most physically imposing hitters in the entire class at 6'6, 240 pounds. Raw power is the calling card here. Bogenpohl has generated exit velocities north of 117 mph in 2026, figures among the very best in the class. He pulverizes fastballs and pitchers on the inner third of the plate, but has a much tougher time when pitched away with secondaries or up with velocity. There are doubts about the hit tool with Bogenpohl, who's posted a whiff rate north of 27% in 2026 against primarily mid-major competition. In terms of supplementary tools, it's a solid profile. He's played plenty of center field, with good speed for his size and above-average arm strength. It's a profile best suited for right field, if he can hit enough. In 2026, he hit .274/.427/.413 with 6 HR (17 XBH), while walking 19.5% of the time and striking out 18% of the time (111 wRC+). Round 4: Brady Harris, OF, Trinity Christian Academy HS, FL Harris is a tooled-up prep outfielder out of Florida, currently committed to the University of Florida. Despite the loud physicality in his profile, he's slipped a bit since the beginning of the cycle in public-facing rankings. Harris has a great frame at 6'2, 185 pounds. Setting up in a relatively upright, back-weighted stance, it's some of the better rotation and bat speed on the prep side this cycle. It's easy plus raw power, and Harris can get to it in games, with some strength projection remaining. There are loud supplemental tools, too. Harris is an easy plus runner with above average arm strength who should figure to stick in center field as a pro hitter. The routes are solid, and he has a good shot to accrue positive value on the base paths and in the field. Right-handed power-reliant outfield profiles can be dinged as the draft cycle gets late. In Harris' case, it's due to swing and miss concerns. He had a poor summer circuit in 2025, exhibiting quite a bit of in-zone swing and miss. If he can improve his bat-to-ball skills and get the strikeouts in check, he can be a force. Curious to see the players around the Milwaukee Brewers' picks in the draft? Click on the button below to view the entire mock draft board! View the full article

I take MLB mock draft rankings from major industry outlets like MLB Pipeline, ESPN, The Athletic (and many others) to form a consensus board, with a working hypothesis that using this approach will eliminate some of the noise and variance in MLB Draft mock rankings. This is the final mock draft board, locked in just before the 2026 MLB Draft on Saturday, July 11. Round 1: Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian HS, TX Emerson is a UT commit and the number one prep prospect in the 2026 class. There might be a little prospect fatigue with Emerson by draft day, as he's been well known since he was 15, and there's less transparency around both data and benchmarks for the top prep prospects in the country. Make no mistake, though, Emerson is a prize in this draft. He might be the best overall hitter in it. It's a relaxed setup, a direct, short left-handed swing, and some adjustability that allows Emerson to keep his barrel in the zone as long as possible and take what he's given by a pitcher. Everything is good here, offensively. During the 2025 summer showcase circuit, Emerson showcased strong bat-to-ball skills, excellent swing decisions, and improved bat speed that indicates above-average power may be on the way. Emerson is a plus runner, to boot. Defensively, he has all the ingredients to stick at the position, with a strong glove, excellent throwing arm, and a good level of defensive polish for his age at the position. Emerson should be one of the first names off the board in July. Round 2: Brody Bumila, LHP, Bishop Feehan HS, MA Draft aficionados will be used to the concept of a cold-weather arm rising throughout the cycle. They don't all look like Brody Bumila, though. The 6'9 two-sport star committed to Texas has been making waves this spring. As you might expect from such a unique frame, there's unique stuff to match. Bumila relies on a fastball that has been as high as 101 mph. It sits in the high 90s, coming at hitters from a drop and drive delivery and a lower launch, with good ride at the top of the zone, making it a nightmare for prep hitters in MA. There's plenty of work to do on the secondary arsenal. Bumila relies most heavily on a changeup, thrown in the low 80s, but he'll mix in a slider and a curveball, too. This is a size and stuff over polish prep arm in what could be one of the higher risk, higher reward plays of the entire class. NOTE: Bumila is dealing with a UCL injury that became public on 07.06. It's unclear the extent of the injury, but it will certainly cloud his draft status. Competitive Balance Round B: Brett Renfrow, RHP, Virginia Tech Renfrow was previously a two-way player who began to focus solely on pitching when he got to campus at Virginia Tech. This is a class draft 'type', a college starter where stuff and production haven't quite met. I'd classify Renfrow as someone with a significant 'up arrow' this spring, though. It's a good frame, and he's about to surpass 70 innings for the third consecutive season. Renfrow has slowly ticked up his strikeout rate while reducing his walk rate, exactly what you want to see. In terms of stuff, the fastball is good. It sits at 94 mph and has been up to 97 mph, playing well at the top of the zone. There's a slider/cutter hybrid he throws in the upper 80s, a curveball with plenty of depth that sits in the low 80s, and a changeup with good horizontal action. Renfrow is a pitcher you can see making significant strides in a pro organization. There are plenty of starter traits here. In 73.2 innings in 2026, Renfrow managed a 4.67 FIP, while striking out 27.7% of hitters and walking just 7.9%. Round 3: Ethan Kleinschmidt, LHP, Oregon State Kleinschmidt was a JUCO lefty who transferred to Oregon State after his freshman year. Since then, he's been a mainstay in the Beavers' rotation, posting with consistency as a supplement to otherworldly righty Dax Whitney. Kleinschmidt has a long arm stroke from the left side of the plate. His fastball has been up to 95 mph with good tail, but typically sits in the 90-93 mph range. There's an above-average slider and changeup in the mix, too, along with the ability to throw strikes with consistency. Kleinschmidt has produced consistently strong results in two seasons for the Beavers. If he's able to add some more strength and get an uptick in velocity as a pro, he has starter traits. In 2026, he managed a 4.11 FIP, striking out 29.7% of hitters while walking 8.3% in 77 innings of work. Round 4: Savion Sims, RHP, Prestonwood Christian Academy HS, TX Sims has some of the best raw pitching clay in the class. He's a 6'8 right-handed pitcher out of Texas, committed to Oklahoma, who will be 19 on draft day. The lanky frame and long limbs produce ridiculous velocity with ease. Sims has been over 100 mph with his fastball, and it'll comfortably sit 96-97 mph. His secondary arsenal requires work; there's a two-plane slider he throws in the mid-80s and a high-80s changeup. Both of his secondary pitches have somewhat inconsistent shapes. There are delivery traits to like too, as Sims can get to 7 plus feet of extension down the mound and creates a steepness in his delivery after raising his arm slot. Sims will be a slow burn, and there's a ton of work to do on the arsenal, but this is uncommon arm talent, Curious to see the players around the Minnesota Twins' picks in the draft? Click on the button below to view the entire mock draft board! View the full article

I take MLB mock draft rankings from major industry outlets like MLB Pipeline, ESPN, The Athletic (and many others) to form a consensus board, with a working hypothesis that using this approach will eliminate some of the noise and variance in MLB Draft mock rankings. This is the final mock draft board, locked in just before the 2026 MLB Draft on Saturday, July 11. Round 1: Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech Burress has been the most consistently productive college hitter since he set foot on campus at Georgia Tech. There's no arguing the track record, but there's a limited catalog of impact bats in the big leagues who stood 5'9. Burress has a ton of moving pieces in his swing that can get a little convoluted and may be problematic against better quality pitching in professional baseball. It's good (not outstanding) bat-to-ball skills with tremendous quality of contact that have resulted in 44 home runs in his first two collegiate seasons. Burress rarely expands the zone and has walked significantly more than he struck out in his first two seasons in Atlanta. Burress has strong supplementary tools. A plus arm and above-average speed and defense give him a chance to stick in centerfield, at least in the infancy of his pro career. After a slow start, Burress finished 2026 with a .358/.473/.657 line with 16 home runs, a 15.8 BB%, a 13.8 K%, and a 143 wRC+. Burress will get a ton of credit in draft models for his performance in his first two collegiate seasons, but there are too many questions for me to select him in the top three. Competitive Balance Round A: Logan Reddemann, RHP, UCLA Reddemann has surged up draft boards after not featuring prominently on pre- or early-season lists. A transfer from San Diego, the 6'2 righty has turned a developmental corner for an outstanding UCLA team and is putting it all together in his draft-eligible junior season. Reddeman has a little bit of a jerky delivery to the plate. Even so, he keeps the baseball well hidden behind his plate until release, creating some deception for hitters and making the ball difficult to track. Reddemann is an excellent strike thrower, which, in concert with an uptick in velocity this year, has left B1G Ten hitters with little chance against his stuff. Reddemann relies on a fastball that sits 94-96 mph but can grab 98 mph. There's a sinker and a cutter too, to round out a trio of fastballs. Reddemann has a slider, which he throws in the low 80s, although it tends to blur with his cutter, and a high-70s curveball to round out a diverse arsenal of pitches. Reddemann managed a 2.68 FIP with a 35.7 K% and a stingy 4.7 BB% in 59.2 innings in 2026. A flexor strain prevented him from pitching down the stretch (including postseason play). If he can prove his health in pre-draft bullpens, he's likely to still be a first-round pick. Round 2: Landon Thome, 2B/3B, Nazareth Academy HS, IL Landon Thome is the son of MLB Hall of Famer Jim Thome, who is currently an assistant coach with his son's Illinois high school team. Thome the younger is committed to Florida State. Landon sets up in the box in a relaxed, open stance. A shoulder-high hand set gives way to a smooth, loose swing. Thome has a chance to have above-average hit and power tools when it's all said and done. Right now, it's a hit over power profile, with strong bat-to-ball metrics, even as he has tapped into more pull-side power in the last 12 months. Thome's eventual defensive home is unclear. He has good defensive actions, but a fringy arm and lack of lateral quickness mean he will likely move off shortstop. Second base seems a likely long-term home. While the secondary tools aren't the loudest, Thome has a great feel to hit with the promise of additional power on the way. That's what I'd always prioritize in a prep hitter. He'll likely go in the first two rounds. Round 3: Evan Dempsey, RHP, FGCU Dempsey is a two-way player who has contributed on the mound and in the box for Florida Gulf Coast in his three years on campus. A true two-way college player, it's likely his ceiling is higher as a pitcher moving forward. In the box, Dempsey put together a .333/.412/.536 line with 10 home runs (28 extra base hits), a 9.4% walk rate, a 13% K%, and stealing 15 bases as 88%. Dempsey's offensive profile is hit over power, but his quality of contact is good, and there's likely more home run power in the tank, despite chasing too much at times. On the mound, he made 15 starts, tossing 88.2 innings in 2026. Dempsey managed a 3.20 FIP with an excellent 34.1 K%, walking just 7% of hitters. It's a good fastball that sits 93-94 mph but can get worked up to 96 mph. He throws two distinct breaking pitches, a curveball and a slider, building on his propensity and feel for spin. Dempsey will be just 20 on draft day and is likely to draw day one interest with evaluators believing his development may accelerate when he's only focusing on pitching. Round 4: Jaxon Willits, SS, Oklahoma Jaxon Willits is the older brother of Eli Willits, selected first overall by the Nationals in 2025. Jaxon is coming off an excellent year as the starting shortstop for an Oklahoma team that was a surprise national champion. Willits, the senior, is a 'more than the sum of his parts' type player. A prospect with high baseball IQ, lacking standout tools, but not having many deficiencies or holes in his game. A switch-hitter, he's more effective from the left side of the plate. Willits combines above-average bat-to-ball skills with excellent swing decisions, making for a hit tool that could be a 55, while the power is more fringe average. There are solid average supplementary tools across the board. Willits runs well, has good infield actions, and a solid average arm. He profiles as a versatile and hit tool-driven utility infielder at the next level. Curious to see the players around the Kansas City Royals' picks in the draft? Click on the button below to view the entire mock draft board! View the full article

I take MLB mock draft rankings from major industry outlets like MLB Pipeline, ESPN, The Athletic (and many others) to form a consensus board, with a working hypothesis that using this approach will eliminate some of the noise and variance in MLB Draft mock rankings. This is the final mock draft board, locked in just before the 2026 MLB Draft on Saturday, July 11. Round 1: Cade Townsend, RHP, Ole Miss Townsend was a solid prep prospect ahead of the 2024 draft, cracking T200 and T300 lists, but made it to campus at Ole Miss. After splitting time between starting and relieving in his freshman season, he entered 2026 strictly as a starter. It was an explosive start to his season. In his first 35 innings pitched, he managed a 2.32 FIP, striking out over 32% of hitters and walking just 4.8%. Unfortunately, he left his fifth start with shoulder discomfort, missing some time on the shelf. It's an appealing fastball that sits 93-95 mph but can grab 98 mph. It has good carry and plays best at the top of the strike zone. It's supplemented by a nasty curveball, a hammer with a ton of drop that he imparts upwards of 3,000 rpms of spin onto with consistency. Rounding out Townsend's arsenal is a cutter that sits in the high 80s, a slider, and a changeup with good fade. The missed time and smaller frame might give some teams pause, but Townsend has a diverse, exciting arsenal. He managed a 4.13 FIP with a 31.9 K% and a much-improved 8 BB% in 64 IP in 2026. He should go well in July despite not pitching in the Rebs Omaha run. Round 2: Wes Mendes, LHP, Florida State Mendes pitched out of the bullpen in his freshman season at Ole' Miss before transferring to Florida State to be closer to home. He's continued to develop and improve throughout his three collegiate seasons, including as the Seminoles Friday night starter in 2026. Mendes typically works from the third base side of the rubber with a loose, efficient delivery from the left side. He doesn't have overpowering velocity, but he has a well-developed arsenal of pitches to deploy in starts. His fastball sits 92-94 mph, and has grabbed 97 mph. It plays well up in the zone thanks to solid carry. Mendez backs this up with a gyro slider with some depth and lateral tilt, in addition to a curveball with greater depth. His best secondary pitch is his changeup, which sits in the low 80s with a ton of horizontal movement. Mendes sells it well with good arm speed. It's already a plus pitch. In working as a starter, Mendes has steadily improved his repertoire, strikeout rate, and lowered his walk rate. He ended 2026 with a 3.10 FIP, a 32.6 K%, and a 6.5 BB% in 93 innings of work for the Seminoles. Free Agent Compensation Round: Ethan Wachsmann, RHP, Grandview HS, CO Wachsman is a sharp riser on the draft board this spring. A CO prep arm hailing from the same high school program as Kevin Gausman, it's a fascinating blend of size and stuff, with plenty of rawness still present. Wachsman's fastball has touched triple digits already; it'll more routinely sit in the 94-96 mph range in the middle innings. He's added a cutter that sits in the high 80s this season as a bridge to the rest of his arsenal. While the velocity is excellent, there's work to do on both the control and command of his arsenal, which are currently fringe-average. Wachsman will fire off a breaking ball that can be slurvy but exhibits good spin rates. There's a changeup that he sells well with good arm speed and velocity separation from his fastball. It'll be worth monitoring the strike-throwing if a team can pry him away from his Wake Forest commitment, but if he can round out his arsenal with better breaking pitch shapes, he'll be a tough look for hitters. Round 3: Sean Dunlap, C, Crown Point HS, IN After sustaining a broken femur in his sophomore year of high school, Tennessee commit Sean Dunlap has returned to be one of the better prep catching prospects in the class, with a chance to be a power arm/power bat if the development goes well. Hitting from the right side of the plate, Dunlap sets up deep in the batter's box is a fairly narrow base. There's quite a bit of bat waggle pre-pitch that gives way to a powerful, if slightly long swing. There's plus raw power there, for sure, with some doubts about the hit tool due to the swing and the tendency to chase. Dunlap is a tremendous athlete. He's an above-average runner with good reactions and twitch. There's a big arm there, too. While the catching needs some work, it's a profile that would transition well to either third base or a corner outfield spot. Round 4: Matt Ponatoski, SS/RHP, Archbishop Moeller HS, OH Matt Ponatoski is a two-sport high school athlete currently committed to the University of Kentucky for both baseball and football, a fact that undoubtedly clouds his draft status. On the diamond, there are plenty of skills and tools that set him up as a T100 prospect in the class. Ponatoski is a left-handed hitter who sets up with a fairly significant barrel tip in his stance. He had an unbelievable summer in 2025, putting up some of the best hitting numbers in the country with the bat, demonstrating particularly good bat-to-ball skills backed up by an excellent approach in which he walked plenty and rarely expanded the zone. While he doesn't have the explosive athleticism to stick at shortstop, Ponatoski has a double-plus arm (as you might expect from an elite quarterback). He's been over 100 mph with throws from the infield, and in the mid-90s as a right-handed arm off the mound with a big curveball to boot. He's a profile who may accelerate when focusing solely on baseball, but the split focus remains a possibility with his quarterbacking responsibilities. Curious to see the players around the Chicago Cubs' picks in the draft? Click on the button below to view the entire mock draft board! View the full article

I take MLB mock draft rankings from major industry outlets like MLB Pipeline, ESPN, The Athletic (and many others) to form a consensus board, with a working hypothesis that using this approach will eliminate some of the noise and variance in MLB Draft mock rankings. This is the final mock draft board, locked in just before the 2026 MLB Draft on Saturday, July 11. Round 1: Cole Carlon, LHP, Arizona State Carlon is one of the fastest-rising college arms in 2026 in a demographic that has suffered from injuries and inconsistent performance. After contributing to the Sun Devils immediately as a freshman bullpen arm, Carlon improved his sophomore season significantly, cutting his ERA in half and flashing far more dominant stuff. It's a good-looking delivery from Carlon. While there aren't outlier release traits, he hides the ball well during his delivery and has an ideal pitcher's frame at 6'5, 220 pounds. He's moved from the bullpen to a starting role in 2026. The results have been spectacular. Carlon had a 4.30 FIP through 83.2 innings of work this season while striking out 38% of hitters. The stuff is as explosive as ever, his fastball sits 94-96 mph, but he's run it up to 100 mph. His slider is one of the best in the class, a mid-80s gyro offering that generates a ton of swing and miss. Carlon mixes in a curveball and a changeup, too. There's still some refinement needed to the strike throwing, but Carlon's walk rate has improved from 11.3% in 2025 to 8.9% in 2026. Carlon is looking like a first-round prospect with starter traits who should move quickly as a pro. Competitive Balance Round B: Kaiden McCarthy, RHP, Vermont Academy, VT Kaiden McCarthy is one of my favorite prep arms in the class. He's on the younger side (he'll be 17 on draft day) and has been seen less than many of his peers, as he's from Vermont. It's a bit of an undersized frame at 6'0, 190 pounds, but McCarthy is a dynamic mover and athlete. His fastball is already an above-average to plus pitch, hitting 99 mph, but typically sitting in the 94-96 mph range. There's a knuckle curve and slider in the mix for breakers, with an above-average changeup with good fade to round out a solidly constructed arsenal. There are plenty of strikes with McCarthy in a delivery I like for its simplicity. He's a hidden gem in this class, for me. Round 3: Jack Slightom, RHP, Lyons HS, IL Slightom is a cold-weather arm out of Illinois, currently committed to Cincinnati, who has surged up draft boards towards the end of the cycle. A projectable righty at 6'4, 200 pounds, he's made strides in the last 12 months and should flourish in a pro system after splitting time between baseball and football in high school. Slightom has some interesting release traits with a lower arm slot and above-average extension. It's a run and ride fastball that has been as high as 98 mph, but will likely sit in the 93-95 mph range, a significant step forward from his junior year. Slightom's primary breaking pitch is a sweeping slider that could use more firmness. He's also shown capacity for a changeup with tumble and fade. Curious to see the players around the Boston Red Sox picks in the draft? Click on the button below to view the entire mock draft board! View the full article

I take MLB mock draft rankings from major industry outlets like MLB Pipeline, ESPN, The Athletic (and many others) to form a consensus board, with a working hypothesis that using this approach will eliminate some of the noise and variance in MLB Draft mock rankings. This is the final mock draft board, locked in just before the 2026 MLB Draft on Saturday, July 11. Round 2: Archer Horn, SS/RHP, St. Ignatius College Prep, CA Horn is a two-way prospect out of Northern California, currently committed to Stanford. He's a talented pitcher who has been up to 95 mph with his fastball, also mixing in a good changeup and a solid curveball that has strong spin traits. Most evaluators think his future is as a hitter, however. In the box, Horn has good bat speed and barrel feel and demonstrates the ability to consistently generate loft in his left-handed swing. I think he'll eventually be a power over hit profile, but he currently has the potential to be at least solid average in both tools. Defensively, it's likely he moves off shortstop eventually, but he has a future on the first at second or third base. His commitment to Stanford and his placement on the board in the 40-60 range generate some skepticism around his signability. Round 3: Caden Ferraro, OF/1B, Texas Tech Ferraro was one of the most prolific college bats in the country for Texas Tech, managing a 143 wRC+ with a 16.7 BB% and 15.5 K%, buoyed by 19 doubles and 8 home runs. 2026 was his lone season in D1 baseball after spending two years at JUCO powerhouse Blinn. Ferraro's is a profile exclusively carried by his offensive tools, as the defense, arm, and legs are all fringy at best. It's a testament to the stick, then, that he's a top 100 consensus player. It's strong bat-to-ball skills, specifically in zone (and low in the zone), with strong swing decisions that lead to a high on-base floor. Ferraro has some of the best quality of contact in D1 baseball, consistently finding the barrel and producing excellent EV numbers throughout 2026. If Ferraro can navigate his mediocre supplementary tools to be an average corner outfielder, the offensive profile will carry him a long way. Round 4: Anthony Murphy, OF, Corona HS, CA Murphy is a prep outfielder out of perennial California powerhouse Corona HS, with a chance to have four above-average tools. He's currently committed to LSU. A strong 6'0, 195, Murphy has plus raw power and has no trouble getting into it in games, crushing 11 home runs his junior year of high school. The hit tool is a little more fringy, with an aggressive approach and some swing and miss, giving evaluators some pause. Murphy has a trio of strong supplementary tools. He's an excellent defensive outfielder, using plus speed to aid his range in center field, with at least a 55 arm. If he can hit enough, he has a chance to be an explosive, impactful player. Curious to see the players around the Toronto Blue Jays' picks in the draft? Click on the button below to view the entire mock draft board! View the full article

I take MLB mock draft rankings from major industry outlets like MLB Pipeline, ESPN, The Athletic (and many others) to form a consensus board, with a working hypothesis that using this approach will eliminate some of the noise and variance in MLB Draft mock rankings. This is the final mock draft board, locked in just before the 2026 MLB Draft on Saturday, July 11. Round 1: Coleman Borthwick, RHP, South Walton HS, FL Borthwick is a physical monster out of Florida, built more like an NFL linebacker than a high school baseball player. Standing at 6'6, 255 pounds, he's an exciting two-way prospect, but most believe his future is on the mound. It's a slightly crossfire delivery, which helps to create a more unusual angle for hitters as he strides down the mound. However it looks, there's a ton of quality in the stuff. Borthwick recently ran his fastball up to 100 mph for the first time. It's a pitch that will sit 94-96 mph with plenty of run. It's paired with a quality slider, a pitch that might already be plus. It sits in the mid-80s with some sharp, late tilt. Borthwick has a changeup in the bank, too, but it's been used sparingly to date. Borthwick has been a more effective strike thrower to date than you might expect from a frame his size and such an explosive arsenal. He's committed to Auburn but has T30 pick upside. Round 3: Jason DeCaro, RHP, North Carolina DeCaro was a reclass in high school, making him one of the youngest college players in this year's class at 20 years and two months when the draft kicks off in July. Listed at 6'5, 230 pounds, he improved steadily while shouldering a significant workload in three years as a starter for North Carolina. DeCaro has a track record of production and innings, but not of overpowering stuff. His fastball has been as high as 97 mph, but will sit 92-94 mph with some run. It doesn't miss a ton of bats. DeCaro can spin the ball with conviction, though. He has a harder slider that sits in the low-to-mid 80s and an upper 70s curveball, both 50s at best, to go with a solid changeup. DeCaro pitched a career high in innings in 2026 (97.1), managing a 4.56 FIP, while striking out 24% of hitters and walking 10.2%. He has starter traits if a pro organization can tweak his arsenal and optimize his breaking stuff through pitch design work. Round 4: Kollin Ritchie, OF, Oklahoma State Kollin Ritchie is a three-year college performer who was drafted as a prep player out of Oklahoma in 2023 in the 19th round by the Orioles. It's a profile headlined by damage on contact, with some sneaky supplementary tools. Ritchie hits from the left side and has improved his approach in 2026, cutting his chase rate from 26% to 21%. His offensive profile is buoyed by his ability to take walks (15.5% in 2026). There's a ton of swing and miss in his profile, and it might be an issue that dampens Ritchie's effectiveness as a pro. It's an above-average arm and above-average wheels, which have sufficed in center field in college, but are likely better suited to right field or a corner spot as a pro. Ritchie hit .326/.462/.804 with 31 home runs (46 XBH), striking out 23.1% of the time, good for a 163 wRC+ in 290 PAs in 2026. If he can make enough contact, he has a chance to be a dangerous pro hitter. Curious to see the players around the New York Mets picks in the draft? Click on the button below to view the entire mock draft board! View the full article

While the Boston Red Sox have focused mainly on pitching when it comes to the draft over the past few years, Jack Winnay was a bat the team targeted later in the 2025 process due to his incredible power. That's an area of the game that the Red Sox are desperately in need of, meaning Winnay could be one of the answers should he manage to properly develop other areas of his game. Jack Winnay’s Updated Red Sox Scouting Report Winnay, who grew up in Newton, Massachusetts and attended Belmont Hill High School, would go on to play college baseball for Wake Forest where by his second season he became a regular starter. During the summer after his first year, the young infielder played in the Futures Collegiate Baseball League for the Vermont Lake Monsters. Following that, Winnay showed his immense power during his final two seasons with Wake Forest where he hit 31 doubles, 35 home runs and drove in 123 runs. Entering the 2025 draft, Winnay was ranked the 384th prospect in the class thanks to a solid approach at the plate paired with good angles off the bat. Despite the power and ability to make contact, he wasn’t viewed as a top prospect due to the lack of a carrying tool, and his power was questioned due to playing in a hitter-friendly park in college. He measures 6-foot-3 and weighed 220 pounds while displaying a solid, physical frame that was already built out and lacked much growth remaining. With the organization, Winnay began his professional career with the then Salem Red Sox as he appeared in 15 games in 2025 and hit .321/.393/.434 with three doubles, one home run and 11 RBIs. The sample size showed that he was ready for the next level of minor league baseball and in 2026 he opened the season with the Greenville Drive. After an outstanding start to his season, Winnay was promoted to Double-A Portland after hitting .255/.434/.457 with five doubles, 11 home runs and 31 RBIs in 56 games split between first base and third base. Winnay’s performance in the month of May also earned him TalkSox’s Minor League Hitter of the Month after he slashed .290/.490/.623 with seven home runs and 14 RBIs to go along with 26 walks. Hit Tool Winnay has showcased an ability to make solid contact everywhere he’s played since the summer of 2023 he spent with Vermont. Starting with his hands high, Winnay goes into a leg lift followed by his swing. He has good plate coverage but likes to get extended and pull the baseball while taking advantage of his strong points as a hitter. He has solid contact skills and plus pitch recognition that allows him to have an elite understanding of the strike zone. His bat path through the zone is good and knows how to hit the baseball at the right angle. He has shown he’s comfortable hitting secondary offerings but there is some concern over how he may handle velocity in the upper levels of the minors. He is willing to work a count and take a walk over trying to force a hit. Like most sluggers, he'll also have his fair share of strikeouts. Potential above-average hit tool: 55 grade on 20-80 scale Power Tool Winnay’s best tool is his power, especially in the raw strength department. So far in 2026, he’s been able to translate that raw power into in-game power, as he’s had several loud home runs for Greenville. His power is mostly to the pull side, as 10 of his 11 home runs with Greenville were either to left field or left-center, and the one that wasn’t was to straight away center field. Thanks to his ability to hit the baseball at the ideal launch angle, he’s able to drive the ball with authority. Potential plus power tool: 60 grade on the 20-80 scale Running Value For Winnay, running is not a big part of his game. He can go first to third on the right kind of hit, but due to his below-average speed, don’t expect him to be taking the extra base or trying to steal with regularity. For his batted balls to end up as extra-base hits, he’ll either need to hit it over the fence or drive it deep into the gap. Potential below-average run tool: 40 grade on the 20-80 scale Fielding Ability While in college, Winnay played first base and the outfield, though he was predominantly a first baseman in his final season at Wake Forest after mainly playing the outfield his sophomore season. While with Vermont for summer ball, he split his time at first base and third base. So far in his young career, the Red Sox have no intention of playing him in the outfield as he’s split his time between first base and third base, with him having appeared at the latter position 55 times this year. In those 42 games, he has committed 15 errors. At first base, he’s appeared in 18 games without making an error. Potential fringe-average field tool: 45 grade on the 20-80 scale Arm Strength Winnay’s arm is viewed as average. It’s strong enough to handle third base, but it won't make or break his defensive profile. Potential average arm tool: 50 grade on the 20-80 scale Outlook with Red Sox With the lack of in-game power on the major-league roster, Winnay will be given chances to develop into a potential major-league bat. Right now, Winnay’s ceiling looks to be that of a bench bat, but that could change should his hit tool develop as predicted. Due to the lack of speed in his game and his questionable ability to currently remain at third base long-term, Winnay’s value will remain tied to his hitting. He has shown an advanced approach at the plate but as he moves through the minors, he'll need to prove he can handle the more advanced pitching, especially when it comes to velocity. 2026 Final Prediction With Winnay’s promotion to Portland coming a little sooner than imagined, there is little room to dream on another quick promotion. The 13th-round pick will remain with Portland for the remainder of the season, getting at-bats against the toughest competition Double-A has to offer. He’ll also be playing at Portland’s Delta Dental Park, which isn’t as much of a hitter’s park as Fleur Field was, which will help to show if his first half of 2026 was thanks to ballpark factors. Expect Winnay to get plenty of time split between third base and first base as the organization looks to see him settle down defensively. View the full article

There are pitchers capable of surviving even when one of their best pitches stops working. Tobias Myers never belonged to that group. His success in Milwaukee never depended on a single dominant pitch, but on the way five different pitches forced hitters to make a different decision on every offering. When that identity began to fade, so did the pitcher the Brewers had found. Two seasons later, that pitcher appears to have vanished. With the New York Mets, Myers has a 6.14 ERA and a 59.1% strand rate. His decline shows the collapse of a pitcher who lost the identity of his repertoire. Consider the batting line against right-handers: .363/.420/.638. Myers went from a .247 wOBA against righties in 2024 to .448 in 2026. Against lefties, he remains competent: .211 average, .248 OBP. The problem is that right-handed batters represent the majority of the hitters he sees, and Myers has no answers for them. What changed? In 2024, Myers threw five pitches: four-seam fastball, cutter, slider, changeup, and curveball. The key was not simply having five options. It was the way they complemented each other. The changeup was the pitch that tied the entire repertoire together. It forced batters to respect the bottom of the zone, made the fastball play above its velocity, and delayed slider recognition. Pitch Year AVG SLG SwStr% Vert. Mov. Hor. Mov. Changeup 2024 .083 .083 17.1% 7.3 -6.9 Splitter 2026 .179 .462 15.4% 5.2 -5.2 In 2026, Myers has replaced the changeup with a splitter. Unlike the changeup, the splitter has less vertical and horizontal separation and stays in the swing plane longer. That difference reduces the deception that once sustained the repertoire. The results reflect that difference: a .179 batting average against, a .462 slugging percentage, and a 27.3% HR/FB rate. Mistakes with the splitter have been punished. Myers's slider has also changed. In 2024, it averaged 85.5 mph, generated swings and misses 12.6% of the time, and held batters to a .196 average. In 2026, his slider averages 82.1 mph. Metric 2024 2026 Change Velocity 85.5 mph 82.1 mph -3.4 mph SwStr% 12.6% 6.9% -5.7 percentage points AVG .196 .333 +.137 wOBA .212 .429 +.217 The velocity loss did not merely reduce swings and misses. It also reduced the visual overlap between the fastball and the slider. With less separation between the two, hitters have more time to recognize the spin, adjust the swing, and make a decision they previously had to resolve much earlier. Myers's xERA (4.41) is better than his ERA (6.14). Some of the inflated ERA reflects poor fortune in high-leverage situations. But that does not explain everything; the contact he's surrendering is also a massive issue. Average exit velocity against Myers rose from 89.7 mph in 2024 to 91.6 mph in 2026. His hard-hit rate climbed from 31.4% to 45.8%. What's behind that jump? As someone with a deep arsenal, Myers has always been more of a command-and-sequencing pitcher. His Location+ in 2024 was 102. His Stuff+ was 91. Now, that relationship has flipped, with a Stuff+ of 103 but a Location+ of 98. He simply can't get hitters out with regularity these days, giving up at least one run in 10 of his last 12 appearances. His demotion to the minors was a necessary step in getting him right, but the pitcher the Mets thought they acquired from the Brewers is deeply broken right now. View the full article

Nobody reads anymore. A recent Atlantic article found that just 16% of Americans read for pleasure. The other 84%? Apparently they're reading because life, work, or the IRS forced them to. That means if you clicked on an article breaking down Alan Roden's swing changes, you're either part of a dying breed or you accidentally tapped the wrong link. Either way, welcome. I'll make you a deal. We'll get to the video almost immediately, and then we'll spend the rest of the article figuring out why the Twins believe Roden's new setup might unlock more offense than the version we watched a year ago. copy_26C3046A-988A-4211-B257-83E955642DA7.mp4 So what did you just watch? My guess is your first thought was something along the lines of, "Alan Roden has a pretty unorthodox swing." That slow-pitch softball leg kick catches a lot of people off guard. Your second thought might be that the two swings actually look fairly similar, aside from him setting up a little lower this season. You'd be right on both counts. But let's dig a little deeper. In 2024, Roden hit a career-high 16 home runs. The left-handed hitting outfielder believed he had the tools to produce that kind of power more consistently. His goal became improving his launch angle to the pull side so he could drive more baseballs in the air and over the fence. Here's what Roden told Fangraphs' David Laurila about his stance during spring training last year: "The stance is about pre-setting the slot so that once I get to launch position I can just turn — it’s how I’m posturing, and directionally moving through the swing to match the plane of the pitch. There is a little more space behind me now, and the turn starts a little bit earlier. It’s been a process to get to this point, but I really like where I’m at right now." When Roden talks about "pre-setting the slot," he's referring to the relationship between his hands, arms, and bat throughout the swing. In simple terms, he's trying to maintain a strong triangle between his arms and hands as he delivers the barrel. Compare that to his setup at Creighton. His pre-pitch posture was noticeably looser than what we saw during his 2025 season. While Roden found success against college and minor league pitching, those results didn't immediately carry over against major league arms. In 55 games with the Blue Jays and Twins in 2025, he hit .191/.261/.294. In his 12 games just with Minnesota, he hit .158 with 13 strikeouts, no walks, and just 40 plate appearances. Rather than continue doing the same thing and hoping for different results, Roden made meaningful adjustments entering 2026. The first noticeable change is in his lower half. Just as he previously focused on pre-setting his slot, he's now pre-setting his back hip. You'll notice he's hinging much more into his rear leg compared to last year's upright setup. In 2025, his lower-half move eventually got him into this position. Now he's ready to fire the moment he gets into the box. He's also starting from a much more open stance. This season he's set up at roughly 45 degrees compared to 34 degrees a year ago, which was already well above the MLB average of 11 degrees. His hand position is another obvious adjustment. He's starting with his hands lower and farther away from his body than he did last season. In 2025, the bat would wrap behind him during the load, creating a longer path to the baseball and making it more difficult to get to velocity on the inner half. Now his hands stay much more in line with his torso, creating stretch without pulling everything offline. There are also several underlying traits that make Roden an intriguing offensive bet and someone worth giving every opportunity to figure things out. He owns one of the better strike-zone profiles you'll find. Throughout the minors, Roden actually walked more than he struck out, a rare accomplishment in today's game. Interestingly, his bat speed is merely average. It's an extremely small sample of just 14 competitive swings in the majors during 2026, but his average bat speed is actually down one mile per hour to 69.1 MPH. League average sits at 71.7 MPH. The tradeoff is that the bat is getting to the ball on a shorter path. That's one reason he's consistently able to control the strike zone. There's no guarantee these changes turn Alan Roden into an everyday major leaguer. Hitting is rarely that simple. What matters is that he's attacking the problem instead of hoping it fixes itself. Every adjustment in his setup has a purpose, from the way he loads his back hip to how he positions his hands. The next few months won't tell us whether Roden can hit. They'll tell us whether this version of Roden is the one the Twins believed they were acquiring. View the full article

On Foul Territory, Marlins right-hander Tyler Phillips raves about Joe Mack's work ethic and explains how Mack's unbelievable throwing ability helps him execute on the mound.View the full article

The Minnesota Twins, who had a massive sell-off at last year's trade deadline, appear to be a buyer this year. The Twins on Friday acquired right-handed reliever Tommy Nance from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for minor-league catcher-third baseman Ryan Sprock. Nance is a 35-year-old who has appeared in 32 games this year for the Jays, posting a 4.20 FIP (3.82 ERA) in 33 innings, walking 9.4% of batters, while striking out 24.5%. Nance made his MLB debut in 2021 and has appeared in 144 games, all but two in relief, with a 3.72 FIP (4.25 ERA). He has a 9.3% career walk rate and 25.3% strikeout rate. Nance is making $809,700 this season and is under club control for another three seasons. Sprock, 21, was an eighth-round draft choice a year ago out of Elon. He was just promoted to High-A Cedar Rapids, where he played two games, going 0-for-7. He had been at Low-A Fort Myers, where he had a .306/.436/.441 slash line with five homers and 37 RBIs in 65 games. He also had 14 stolen bases. Sprock is not on Twins Daily's Top 20 prospects list. He made 31 starts at catcher, 18 at third base and five in left field in addition to 11 as a designated hitter. View the full article