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Prospect gurus Keith Law of The Athletic and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN both released their team farm system rankings on Wednesday, and both like the Brewers best! McDaniel posited that, in recent history, the Dodgers and Rays have been viewed as the model organizations, but that opinion has now shifted to the Brewers. Law agrees, though not in so many words, crediting the team with an advanced, integrated process for identifying and developing talent. The two writers laud the Brewers for acquiring amateur talent through all available pipelines, including international signings, the MLB draft, and trade acquisitions, and see the Brewers as having both upper-echelon talent and excellent depth. Six Brewers were featured in Law’s top 100 list, including the newly acquired Brandon Sproat (75) and Jett Williams (45). Interestingly, Law writes that the Brewers were his number one overall system even prior to the Freddy Peralta trade, while McDaniel posted on social media that the trade moved the Brewers’ system from sixth to first and moved the Mets’ from first to sixth. Overall, McDaniel has 8 Brewers in his top 100; Logan Henderson (64) and Bishop Letson (91) were included on the ESPN list but not The Athletic’s. Both experts list Jesús Made third overall behind only the Pirates’ Konnor Griffin and Kevin McGonigle of the Tigers. Luis Pena, Cooper Pratt, and Jeferson Quero were the other three prospects on both lists. View the full article

Needing more competition and depth for the starting rotation, the San Diego Padres have agreed to terms on a minor-league deal with left-hander Marco Gonzales, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Gonzales not only has an invitation to spring training, but would make $1.5 million if he makes the team with $1 million in incentives, Heyman reported. Set to turn 34 on Feb. 16, Gonzales has spent 10 seasons in MLB, including last year with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Due to a variety of elbow issues, Gonzales only made seven starts in 2025 with a 4.71 FIP and 4.54 ERA. The Pirates declined a $15 million option on Gonzales for 2026. The Friars' rotation currently is comprised of Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Joe Musgrove, Randy Vasquez, and JP Sears. All are right-handers except for Sears. Left-hander Kyle Hart and right-hander Matt Waldron are other options for the rotation already on the roster. View the full article

Needing more competition and depth for the starting rotation, the San Diego Padres have agreed to terms on a minor-league deal with left-hander Marco Gonzales, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Gonzales not only has an invitation to spring training, but would make $1.5 million if he makes the team with $1 million in incentives, Heyman reported. Set to turn 34 on Feb. 16, Gonzales has spent 10 seasons in MLB, including last year with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Due to a variety of elbow issues, Gonzales only made seven starts in 2025 with a 4.71 FIP and 4.54 ERA. The Pirates declined a $15 million option on Gonzales for 2026. The Friars' rotation currently is comprised of Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Joe Musgrove, Randy Vasquez, and JP Sears. All are right-handers except for Sears. Left-hander Kyle Hart and right-hander Matt Waldron are other options for the rotation already on the roster. View the full article

Another day, another treat for all of us projection freaks. Earlier this month, Dan Szymborski published the Blue Jays' ZiPS for the upcoming season, and Jays Centre's Matthew Creally wrote about his key takeaways from the new projections. Yesterday, FanGraphs added ZiPS to the 2026 projections leaderboard, giving me the idea to compare Toronto's ZiPS and Steamer projections. Now, we have the first ZiPS projected standings for 2026, and they're very encouraging for the Blue Jays. I won't give everything away here – go read Szymborski's article on FanGraphs – but ZiPS sees the Blue Jays as the most likely winners of the AL East. Across MLB, only the Dodgers have higher odds of making the playoffs. At the same time, Toronto's division rivals in Boston, Baltimore, and New York are projected to make things difficult. ZiPS might like the Jays the most (by a hair), but the real takeaway is that the AL East is going to be a hotly contested four-team race. Here's another way to think about it: ZiPS thinks the Blue Jays have a better chance of winning their division than any other team. However, these projections would still tell you to bet the field over the favourite. According to ZiPS, Toronto only has a one-in-three chance to repeat as AL East champions. The odds that one of the Red Sox, Orioles, or Yankees will win are twice as high. The Blue Jays stand out from the pack a little more if you look at their 80th-percentile projection. ZiPS thinks this team has a one-in-five shot to win 100 games. (Well, technically, 99.8 games, but I'm going to round up.) Boston has the AL's second-best 80th-percentile projection, and it's 2.1 wins worse than Toronto's. As fans, we know how great this team could be if enough goes right. The "what ifs?" are endless. What if Daulton Varsho's power last season was the real deal? What if Anthony Santander bounces back? What if Addison Barger breaks out? What if Trey Yesavage keeps pitching like he did in October? What if Cody Ponce is more than a swingman? What if Kazuma Okamoto translates his NPB power to MLB? I don't need to keep going, but you know I could. That's the point. Yet, as a fan, it's also easy to overestimate your own team's potential and underestimate everyone else's. That's why it's nice to see some objective evidence that the Blue Jays really do have more upside than their closest competitors. On a less pleasant note, the Blue Jays actually have the fourth-worst World Series odds in their division. They also rank below the Astros and Mariners, as well as the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Braves, and Cubs. One reason for this is how competitive the AL East looks (teams in other divisions have an easier path to a first-round bye), but that doesn't explain why the Jays have worse World Series odds than the Orioles, Yankees, and Red Sox. For whatever reason, ZiPS thinks this team is built to succeed in the regular season but not quite as well-equipped for the playoffs. Perhaps that's because the Blue Jays have more depth than star power in the starting rotation and the bullpen. By and large, the Blue Jays and their fans should be pleased with what ZiPS has to say. Even if the front office is done making moves, the team is in a great spot to compete. With that said, the ZiPS projected standings are also a great argument for why the Jays could use one more addition to really set themselves apart. View the full article

In addition to all of the members of the 40-man roster, Miami Marlins major league spring training camp always includes non-roster invitees. This group is comprised of both conventional prospects and newcomers to the organization. More often than not, through a combination of spring performance and teammate injuries, at least one NRI winds up cracking the club's Opening Day roster. Who do you think is most likely to do so in 2026? The Marlins announced 31 NRIs on Thursday. Organizational players: OF Kemp Alderman*, RHP Nigel Belgrave, INF/OF Jacob Berry, RHP Zach Brzykcy, RHP Josh Ekness*, OF Matthew Etzel, C/INF Bennett Hostetler, C Ryan Ignoffo, INF Dylan Jasso, OF Brendan Jones*, LHP Justin King, OF Dillon Lewis*, 1B Nathan Martorella, RHP Karson Milbrandt*, LHP Patrick Monteverde, INF Johnny Olmstead, OF Andrew Pintar, C Sam Praytor, LHP Robby Snelling*, LHP Dale Stanavich, OF Fenwick Trimble* and LHP Thomas White* *FOF Top 30 prospect Minor league free agents: INF Jesús Bastidas, OF Daniel Johnson, RHP Stephen Jones, RHP Evan McKendry, C Brian Navarreto, RHP Jack Ralston, RHP Jesús Tinoco, RHP Samuel Vásquez and RHP Tyler Zuber Marlins pitchers and catchers report on February 11, followed by the first full-squad workout on February 16. View the full article

On Thursday afternoon, the Royals shared on social media that Maikel Garcia will play for Venezuela in the upcoming World Baseball Classic. This will be Garcia's first appearance in the WBC with his home country. His inclusion on the Venezuelan team was merited, especially after a breakthrough season in 2025. In 666 plate appearances last year, he hit 16 home runs, scored 81 runs, collected 74 RBI, stole 23 bases, and hit .286. He also posted a 121 wRC+ and a 5.6 fWAR, the latter being the second-best mark of Royals players last season. In 449 career MLB games, Garcia has accumulated a 9.1 fWAR. In addition to his gaudy metrics, he played in his first All-Star game, won a Gold Glove, and won the team's Special Achievement award (which typically goes to the second-best player on the team). The stellar campaign helped Garcia earn a five-year, $57.5 million extension this offseason. He is guaranteed to stay under contract in Kansas City until 2031. The Royals' third baseman will be joining family member Ronald Acuna Jr. (of Atlanta) and teammate Salvador Perez in the World Baseball Classic. Perez was named the captain of Team Venezuela back in November. Pool play for the WBC will begin on March 5th and go until March 11th. The WBC final will be on March 17th at loanDepot Park in Miami. For more information, check out the World Baseball Classic's official site here. Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images View the full article

After a disheartening campaign in 2025, Ben Weber decided to drop his Twins season ticket plan heading into this year. He felt his relationship with the club had grown stale, and he needed to find out who he was apart from his longtime favorite franchise. But love doesn’t give up that easily, and neither does Twins owner Tom Pohlad. “The day after I cancelled my full-season package, I woke up to the sound of some music playing from my front yard,” Weber said, with some confusion in his voice. “I looked out my window and saw Tom standing in my yard holding something over his head that I guess is called a boombox? I don’t even know what that is. I was born in ‘96.” Pohlad was doing his best impression of John Cusack from the hit 1989 movie "Say Anything." In the film, Cusack’s character tries to win back his heartbroken lover with a boombox lifted above his head, playing Peter Gabriel’s hit “In Your Eyes” from her front lawn. It was supposed to be a touching display of vulnerability and defiance against her father’s wishes. All this comes after a report from The Athletic’s Dan Hayes (an '80s heartthrob in his own right) that Pohlad made multiple cold calls to departing season ticket holders, in an effort to smooth things over and reignite interest in the club. Apparently, he even left voicemails for those who refused to answer his call. “A voicemail?” Weber exclaimed with a chilling shudder. “Literally my worst nightmare. If there’s anything I hate more than answering a call from an unknown number, it’s getting a notification that they left me a message. Absolute psychopath behavior. Oh, and now he’s showing up to my home address. Perfect.” It’s unclear if Pohlad’s effort will lead to any renewed interest from disheartened fans, but it’s clear that he wants to put all of his energy toward turning enthusiasm around, after multiple difficult seasons. If his cold calls (and now front lawn serenades) don’t work out, it sounds like he has a few more tricks up his sleeve. His next move would be to meet these fans at their doorstep with cue cards (so that the rest of the household doesn’t get suspicious), a la "Love Actually". He’ll drop the cards one by one, while looking longingly into their eyes as they read. “With any luck, by this time next year, we’ll be hoisting a trophy” “But for now, let me say without hope or agenda” “Just because it’s ticket renewal season (and at renewal you tell the truth)” “To me, your 20-game flex plan was perfect” He’ll go on to reiterate his family’s utmost commitment to fielding a competitive team, by any means necessary (well, almost). “Look, I’ll buy some tickets. That’s fine,” said Weber, mounting a new deadbolt to his front door. “Just please leave my property.” View the full article

Outfielder Jackson Chourio will get ready for his third season in a Milwaukee Brewers uniform by playing for Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic. The Brewers made what had seemed a likely decision official via social media Thursday. This will be Chourio's first WBC. Rosters for all WBC teams are due February 3, which is Tuesday. Venezuela will be one of the teams to watch in this year's tournament. In 2023, Venezuela went 4-0 in pool play before being knocked off by the U.S. 9-7 in the quarterfinals. The U.S. went on to lose to Japan 3-2 in the championship game. Chourio was announced to Venezuela's roster along with Ronald Acuna Jr., Maikel Garcia, and Wilyer Abreu. The team captain is Salvador Perez. Whether Brewers catcher William Contreras will be named to the roster is unknown, especially since Perez is a catcher, too, as well as the team captain. No other Brewers are known to have made a WBC roster at this point. Sal Frelick is a strong candidate to play again for Italy. View the full article

This multi-part series talks about how the Brewers got to the World Series and offers a timeline of the 1982 campaign, including player profiles, game recaps, and other events that affected the season. Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5 Part 6 Part 7 Part 8 The Series So Far The 1982 World Series had its ebbs and flows, with the Brewers winning Game 1 by a 10-0 margin, and then two wins by the Cardinals, followed by two wins by the Brewers that resulted in a 3-2 lead for Milwaukee. The Brewers were tough at home during the playoffs, winning five of six contests at County Stadium, but struggled somewhat on the road, winning one while losing three entering the final two games of the Series. Game 6: Stuper pitches a gem in Cards' 13-1 shellacking Milwaukee (Don Sutton) at St. Louis (John Stuper) The middle part of the game was delayed twice due to rain, for more than 2 ½ hours in total, but it didn’t bother the Cardinals. They scored a baker’s dozen in a rout that tied the Series at three games each. While Don Sutton clearly didn’t have his best stuff, allowing seven hits and seven runs in 4 1/3 innings, John Stuper was lights out for the Cardinals. The 25-year-old rookie right-hander pitched a complete-game four-hitter despite the two rain delays, which stretched the game to an even five hours. Milwaukee’s defense didn’t help matters, as Robin Yount and Jim Gantner—normally sure-handed glove men—had two miscues apiece. “I think the wet turf hurt them a little bit,” said manager Whitey Herzog with a chuckle. “We watered it down all day long.” The Cards scored two runs in the second inning, highlighted by Tom Herr’s RBI double. In the fourth, Darrell Porter hit a two-run homer, and Herr’s squeeze bunt scored Dane Iorg to make it 5-0. Keith Hernandez hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the fifth to make it 7-0, and heavy rain prompted a 26-minute delay. One inning later, Doc Medich came on and allowed one run on a sequence that looked like this: double, wild pitch, single, single, wild pitch, groundout. The game was halted by a downpour for a second time. It resumed at 11:40 pm Central, and Medich was greeted rudely, as St. Louis scored five more times with run-scoring singles by Hernandez (two RBI) and George Hendrick and a booted grounder by Gantner that allowed two more runners to cross the plate. In the top of the ninth, the Brewers scored their lone run on a double by Gantner, a single by Paul Molitor, and a wild pitch that allowed Gantner to score. The talk after the game involved the rain, and the way baseball commissioner Bowie Kuhn handled it. "Kuhn took a risk, a chance that players could have [gotten] hurt and not been ready for the seventh game of the World Series,” Medich said after the game. The commissioner was stubborn, all right. “We’re going to play this game until it is completed—even if we have to wait a great many more hours,” Kuhn said in an interview during the game. They waited, then played, until past midnight, even though the result was beyond doubt much earlier. Game 7: Andujar, Sutter shut down Brewers to win Fall Classic Milwaukee (Pete Vuckovich) at St. Louis (Joaquín Andujar) The Brewers had a 3-1 lead going into the bottom of the sixth, needing just 12 outs to win the franchise’s first World Series championship. Unfortunately for the Brewers, the Cardinals scored three times in the bottom half of the sixth and twice in the eighth on their way to a 6-3 victory, earning their ninth title in front of 53,723 screaming maniacs at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. The game was scoreless when the Cardinals came to bat in the bottom of the fourth against Pete Vuckovich. With runners on the corners and one out, Lonnie Smith beat out a groundball to shortstop, scoring Willie McGee. Milwaukee answered immediately against Joaquín Andujar. In the top of the fifth, Ben Oglivie slammed Andujar’s first offering into the right-field stands to quiet the raucous crowd. Vuckovich allowed eight hits and two walks over the first five frames, but held the Cardinals to a single run. The Brewers tagged Andujar for a pair of runs in the top of the sixth. Gantner ambushed his first pitch for a double to right-center. Molitor laid a bunt down the third-base line, but Andujar’s throw to first sailed wide, allowing Gantner to score and Molitor to go to second. Yount beat out an infield chopper that moved Molitor to third. Cecil Cooper hit a sac fly to left that scored Molitor, to extend the lead to 3-1. In the bottom of the sixth, Vuckovich got the first out, but then allowed an Ozzie Smith single and a double by Lonnie Smith. That was all for ‘Vuke,’ who was replaced by Bob McClure. Pinch-hitter Gene Tenace drew a walk and was replaced by pinch-runner Mike Ramsey. Hernandez tied the game with a single to center that scored both Smiths. The Cards took the lead when Hendrick’s single to right scored Ramsey. Haas began the bottom of the eighth by giving up a ground-rule double to Lonnie Smith. Ramsey struck out, Hernandez drew an intentional walk, and Hendrick flied out to center for the second out. With lefthanders Porter and Braun coming up, Brewers manager Harvey Kuenn brought in Mike Caldwell, who had thrown 127 pitches in Game 5 just three days earlier. Caldwell allowed RBI singles to both Porter and Braun, expanding the lead to 6-3. Bruce Sutter, who had retired the side in the eighth, repeated that feat in the ninth to earn his second save of the Series and give the Cardinals their first title since 1967. The city of Milwaukee, which had already waited 10 years longer, still hasn't broken their drought. The Brewers were led by Molitor, who had two hits. For St. Louis, Lonnie Smith had three hits, while Ozzie Smith, Hernandez, Hendrick, and Iorg each had a pair of hits. Andujar allowed seven hits and three runs in seven innings, coming back from the line drive hit off his leg in Game 3. Porter, who batted .286 (8-for-28) with two doubles, a homer, and five RBIs, was named World Series Most Valuable Player. While St. Louis would return to the Fall Classic six more times and win two of them (2006, 2011), the Brewers have not returned. The closest they have come is losing three times in National League Championship Series, including to the Cardinals again in 2011. But no matter their success, the 1982 Brewers team was one of the best Brewers teams in franchise history. Maybe, soon, the team can have another campaign as magical, but for now, Harvey's Wallbangers remain the most memorable and beloved group ever to don the blue and yellow. View the full article

The 2026 MLB season is right around the corner, and we're looking to expand our video coverage. Have you ever considered being on-camera and talking about the Padres? If yes, we'd love to talk to you about it. Our videos are typically in a wide variety of styles: breaking news, analysis, and historical study. We're open to any and all ideas as long as they're centered around the San Diego Padres. We're looking for serious baseball talk, so leave the hot takes at home. If you'd like to learn more about this cool little side gig, please email Brock Beauchamp at brock.beauchamp@padresmission.com. Here is an example of a recent Padres video from us: View the full article

Projection season continues! ZiPS is now available on FanGraphs player pages and the 2026 projections leaderboard, which means I can start one of my favourite pre-season exercises: comparing the ZiPS and Steamer projections to see where they differ. ZiPS and Steamer, both housed at FanGraphs, are two of the most well-known, widely used, and consistently accurate projection systems available. They’re also the two systems FanGraphs averages to calculate their Depth Charts projections. At first thought, it might seem strange to mash two projection systems together, but as it turns out, projection systems are stronger together than they are apart. We’ve been citing Steamer here at Jays Centre throughout the offseason. Earlier this month, Matthew Creally took a close look at the recently published Blue Jays’ ZiPS. Today, I’m going to identify the hitters for whom these two projection systems offer notably different outlooks. Before I dive into that, however, I’d like to acknowledge a couple of general trends I noticed in my research. For one thing, Steamer is a pessimist when it comes to defense. It also projects much wider platoon splits than ZiPS, particularly regarding numbers against left-handed pitchers. I think this is because Steamer plays things safer than ZiPS. Defensive stats are famously volatile, and the fact that right-handed hitters tend to be more effective than left-handed hitters against left-handed pitchers is backed by more than a century of evidence. When faced with uncertainty, it’s less risky to project defensive metrics closer to zero, and it’s easier to presume righties will thrive with the platoon advantage and lefties will struggle without it. Yet, ironically enough, there can be danger in playing things too safe. The Steamer projections are an important reminder that regression to the mean comes for everyone. ZiPS offers what look like more nuanced and individualized prognostications. With all that said, let’s dive in. RJ Schreck Even the best projection systems have wide error bars for prospects. Simply put, neither Steamer nor ZiPS has much data to work with here. That’s precisely why Schreck’s projections jump off the page. Most minor leaguers have very similar (and very mediocre) ZiPS and Steamer projections. Schreck, however, has a 12-point difference in his projected wRC+ figures. Steamer sees him putting up an unremarkable 96 wRC+, but ZiPS envisions an impressive 108 wRC+. That’s because ZiPS buys into the big power he’s shown off at Double and Triple A, projecting him for 17 home runs and a .189 ISO in 104 games. Of course, a lot would have to go wrong for Schreck to get to play 104 games for the Blue Jays, but it’s nice to think that if a lot does go wrong, the Jays will have a talented lefty slugger in Buffalo they can call upon. That is, if you trust ZiPS more than Steamer. Unfortunately, I’m worried ZiPS is too optimistic about Schreck’s skills against same-handed pitching. ZiPS and Steamer project relatively similar numbers for Schreck against righties: a .744 OPS and a .715 OPS, respectively. However, ZiPS projects him for a .700 OPS against southpaws, while Steamer has him struggling to a .597 OPS. Considering Schreck has posted wide platoon splits so far in the minors (.862 OPS vs. RHP, .757 OPS vs. LHP), I’m not confident he could close that gap in his first season at the game’s highest level. Joey Loperfido ZiPS sees Loperfido as a league-average hitter. Combine that with good speed and solid outfield defense, and we’re looking at a player who deserves regular major league playing time. Steamer, on the other hand, projects Loperfido for an 85 wRC+. Unless you can field like Andrés Giménez, that’s unplayable. Once again, it’s mostly a matter of platoon splits. ZiPS is higher on Loperfido in general, but Steamer really doesn’t have any confidence that the young lefty bat can hit same-handed pitching. Only time will tell which projection is more accurate, but the good news is that he has reverse platoon splits in his minor league career (.834 OPS vs. RHP, .883 OPS vs. LHP). It’s hard to see a path to playing time for Loperfido on the 2026 Blue Jays, but he’ll help his case if he keeps mashing lefties in the minors. Daulton Varsho ZiPS will tell you Varsho is a borderline All-Star. According to Steamer, he’s bordering on mediocre. That’s largely due to the latter underestimating his defense; the Gold Glove center fielder somehow has a negative defensive projection from Steamer. However, ZiPS is also much more optimistic that Varsho can maintain the huge power he flashed in 2025. His ZiPS projected ISO (.232) is the highest on the team, while his Steamer projected ISO (.205) is 27 points lower. I hate to sound like a broken record, but once again, it comes down to platoon splits. Varsho has long struggled against southpaws, particularly in the power department. ZiPS is confident he can change that in 2026, projecting an ISO well above his previous career high. Steamer is far less optimistic. Alejandro Kirk Finally, a player with better offensive projections from Steamer than ZiPS! Why might that be? Well, because Kirk bats right-handed. Okay, there’s more to it than that. Steamer just really likes Kirk’s bat, projecting him for a 122 wRC+. That’s nine points higher than his ZiPS wRC+ projection. However, as has consistently been the case, Steamer projects a much wider platoon split than ZiPS. Steamer expects Kirk to crush lefties for an .813 OPS. That’s well above his career average, and it would be his highest since 2021 – when he only faced a lefty 60 times. Overall, ZiPS still projects Kirk for more WAR than Steamer does, but that goes back to Steamer undervaluing defense. If Kirk can match his Steamer projection at the plate and his ZiPS projection behind it, he’ll have the best season of his career. Kazuma Okamoto Toronto’s lone addition to the lineup is a major wild card. Okamoto was a superstar in Japan, but translating NPB stats to MLB is never easy. So, it isn’t surprising that the righty slugger has an eight-point gap between his Steamer and ZiPS wRC+ projections. ZiPS thinks he’ll strike out a bit more, but it sees him making up for that with a higher walk rate and a little more power. While Okamoto's ZiPS stats are more impressive, this one doesn't have anything to do with varying platoon projections. The projected magnitude of the difference between his OPS against righties and lefties is almost identical in both systems. Each suggests his OPS will be about 40 points higher when he has the platoon advantage. Anthony Santander Santander’s platoon split projections are particularly interesting, given that he’s a switch-hitter. There’s only a one-point difference between his projected OPS against right-handers according to Steamer and ZiPS. However, his ZiPS projection against left-handers is 71 points higher than his Steamer projection. To put that another way, ZiPS sees him as a slightly better hitter from the right side, while Steamer sees him as a significantly better hitter from the left side. To make things more confusing, Santander has been a roughly equally productive hitter against righties and lefties throughout his career. He strikes out a lot more against southpaws, but he also draws more walks and has seen much better results on balls in play. So, I’m inclined to trust the more balanced ZiPS projections. Andrés Giménez Giménez is a fun one because his overall offensive projections from ZiPS and Steamer are almost identical. Yet, ZiPS sees him as a similarly poor hitter against righties and lefties alike, while Steamer suggests he’ll be roughly league average against righties but really quite ineffective against lefties. Those are two very different offensive profiles. In 2024 and ‘25, Giménez matched the latter profile. However, in the two seasons prior, he was actually slightly better against left-handers. On the one hand, it would be great if Giménez could hold his own against lefty pitchers. On the other hand, I wouldn't be mad to see Ernie Clement slide over to shortstop against southpaw starters if it meant Giménez was a genuinely productive bat against righties. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It almost seems silly to include Guerrero in this piece when both projection systems think he’ll be one of the best hitters in baseball. However, his Steamer wRC+ (153) is eight points higher than his ZiPS wRC+ (145). That difference is enough to make him one of Steamer’s top five projected hitters, trailing only Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, and Shohei Ohtani. Once again, it comes back to platoon splits. Steamer projects Guerrero's OPS against righties to be 14 points higher than ZiPS. That’s not a huge difference. However, Steamer projects his OPS against lefties to be 82 points higher than ZiPS. Only one hitter, Judge, has better Steamer projections against southpaws. Guerrero doesn’t have wide platoon splits in his career. He’s actually been slightly better against right-handed pitchers. With that said, he absolutely destroyed lefties in 2025, and Steamer seems to think that trend will continue. View the full article

Earlier this week, we discussed the many, many candidates for not-so-many spots in the Cubs' Opening Day bullpen, focusing on the right-handed hurlers in the mix. Today, let's tackle the lefties vying for the few open spots, and the way the team will utilize those who don't make the cut. It's a different exercise than with the righties. In all likelihood, only two lefties will make the Opening Day bullpen, and if Caleb Thielbar and Hoby Milner are each healthy, they'll be the two. Each signed with the team as free agents this winter. Neither can be optioned to the minors. A third lefty could crack the group, but two things are working against that: The sheer volume of useful and intriguing right-handed arms they've collected, vying for spots; and The fact that the team has two left-handed starters (Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga) slated for the Opening Day rotation, with another (Justin Steele) likely to join the mix somewhere around the All-Star break, making matchup lefties out of the pen a bit less of a pressing need. We can approach the questions of who brings what and how each pitcher might be used (or disused) differently, then, when it comes to the lefties. Nonetheless, we can begin with the same graphic showing the arsenals and arm slots of the candidates. The six key southpaws in the bullpen mix are Thielbar, Milner, Jordan Wicks, Luke Little, Ryan Rolison, and Riley Martin. As indicated by the gold hues of the backgrounds on each of their profiles, Wicks, Little, Rolison and Martin can all be optioned to Triple-A Iowa, so tentatively, we can expect all of them to start the season there. Wicks, the club's first-round pick in the 2021 Draft, is also a candidate to start, though his star has dimmed over time. As is true of Ben Brown and Javier Assad from the right side, Wicks is likely to stay stretched out this spring (if he remains with the Cubs), but unlike those two, the team will be very reluctant to use Wicks as a starter in the majors. His path to helping the team is by staying capable of multi-inning stints in relief. As high as his upside seemed to be just a year or two ago, Little now looks like the first name on the chopping block the next time the Cubs need to open a 40-man roster spot. Unless he comes to camp with his velocity restored, he's not going to be able to help the Cubs. His fastball sat near 96 miles per hour and flirted with 100 as recently as 2024, but last year, it averaged just over 93. He needs to improve his control, too, but even at the best that his control is ever likely to be, he can't have a meaningful impact at that number. He lowered his arm slot last season, and his size, that angle and the nastiness of his breaking ball give him real upside. To realize it, though, he has to get the juice back in his arm, and right now, that seems like a long shot. The Cubs scooped Rolison off the waiver wire, as much because he can be optioned and stashed as because he's a potential weapon in any kind of high-leverage situation. He has the relative cut the Cubs like on a four-seam fastball, and throws it from a high three-quarters slot, so his stuff bears a sufficient resemblance to that of Thielbar to make him a fallback plan if the aging high-slot spin master gets hurt. It's nice to have multiple guys who offer a particular look to opposing batters, as long as one can be kept in the minors while the other is getting outs in the majors. Martin has a little bit of the same thing going on. He doesn't have any big-league time yet, so we can't precisely measure his arm angle, but it's similar to Rolison's. So is his arsenal, with a four-seamer and two breaking balls that work vertically, more than horizontally. The Cubs have a lot of eggs in the Milner basket right now, when it comes to getting out hitters who struggle with low-slot lefties and/or horizontal movement. That's why Little has significant potential value, if he shows up in Mesa looking revived. Failing that, though, the team would be wise to add one more lefty whose stuff is at least roughly akin to Milner's. That could be on a minor-league deal, but it should be someone optionable, if at all possible. Still, this is a much more settled battle than is the one on the right side. Milner and Thielbar are a competent, veteran pair of lefties who are terrific in the clubhouse, as well as being reliable on the mound. The four other southpaws with a chance to pitch out of Craig Counsell's pen are all on the 40-man roster, and can all be kept in the minors. The roles are easy to divine, and the redundancies are equally clear. If the season began today, the Cubs wouldn't be sweating about their left-handed relief corps. They have other boxes to check before Opening Day; this group could stay quite stable. View the full article

The Boston Red Sox have made it clear that they are content with their high-leverage set up in the bullpen. They signed Aroldis Chapman to a team-friendly extension in September and have his set-up man, Garrett Whitlock, locked down through the end of this season with club options for both 2027 and 2028. The latter has been incredibly valuable to the organization since he was taken in the 2020 Rule 5 draft; although he’s bounced from the bullpen to the rotation, he’s become an anchor at the end of games the team knows it can depend on. What those club options likely signal is that Whitlock is waiting in the wings to take over the closer role should Chapman falter or get injured during this season, and more likely once he’s gone in 2027. I’ve long championed for Whitlock to be the closer of the Red Sox but after seeing a handful of All-Star caliber closers sign during the winter, it’s not a far reach to wonder if the Red Sox should have been more involved in that market to help shore up the role through, potentially, the end of the decade. There’s an injury risk with Whitlock that seems to rear its ugly head on an almost-yearly basis. In 2019, he underwent his first Tommy John surgery that kept him out through the shortened 2020 season. He was healthy in 2021, injured his hip requiring surgery in 2022, was limited by right elbow ulnar neuritis and right elbow inflammation in 2023, strained his oblique in April of 2024, then tore his UCL in May of the same year, requiring an internal bracing procedure. He was then placed permanently in the bullpen for 2025 and he thrived in the role again. It did come out after the season that Whitlock was pitching through a calf injury for most of the second half, but it was never bad enough to require time on the injured list and could be managed with his regular workload. His injury risk should be mitigated as he works out of the bullpen, but it’s something to keep in mind as he’s trusted with more high-leverage spots as the team prepares for a post-Chapman world. More importantly, the injury history is about the only negative mark you could give Whitlock. As a reliever, he’s been absolutely dominant on the mound. He proved that there was never a game or situation too big for him when he made his debut with the Red Sox in 2021 and stuck on the big league club for the entire season. Even after his hip surgery in '22, he was rewarded with an extension to keep him around for four more years. If we look at his numbers from 2025, we can see a pitcher who has finally come into his own and feels comfortable in his late-inning role. He threw 72 innings over 62 games with a 31.1% strikeout percentage, an 8.2% walk rate, a 2.25 ERA, 2.18 FIP, and a 2.2 fWAR. Taking the injury-shortened seasons out, he posted the lowest hard-hit rate of his career at 36.4% and his ERA is the lowest it has been since 2021’s mark of 1.96. On top of all of that, his Baseball Savant page is on fire. Whitlock has proven to be a steady hand as a set-up man and will likely show the same confidence and poise when he transitions to the closer role. Could the Red Sox have benefitted from signing Edwin Diaz, Devin Williams, or even Ryan Helsley? Absolutely. You can never have too many big time arms at the back of your bullpen. But signing any of them could have hamstrung the finances in a way that may have prevented the trades for Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras or blocked the path to signing free agent Ranger Suarez. Sometimes, you have to trust the arms you have. This is a situation that bears monitoring going forward, especially if the Red Sox find themselves in a lot of tight games and don't want to burn out Chapman in his age-38 season. A trade deadline blockbuster can't be ruled off the table. But, insofar as he's healthy, Garrett Whitlock has been preparing to take over the closer role since last offseason and will reward the team’s patience with him whenever his number is called. View the full article

Each winter brings a fresh round of prospect rankings, clarifying where Minnesota’s system stands at the top. Using the four major national lists from ESPN, Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and The Athletic, the Twins placed six prospects on at least one Top 100 list entering the 2026 season. Three of these appeared on all four rankings, while others continue to spark debate about role projection and long-term health. Here is how the Twins' prospects stack up through a national lens. 5. Connor Prielipp, LHP Prielipp remains one of the more polarizing arms in the Twins system. ESPN was the most bullish, ranking him 54th overall, while Baseball America squeezed him in at number 94. MLB Pipeline and The Athletic both left him off their lists entirely. The split is understandable. Prielipp’s health history continues to cloud his future as a full-time starter, and national outlets often hesitate to rank pitchers who may ultimately land in the bullpen. Still, ESPN sees the upside, calling him “a potential No. 2 starter” if he can stay healthy. Moving forward, Prielipp finished the 2025 season with Triple-A St. Paul and could make his major-league debut in 2026, even if it comes in a relief role. If he finds consistency on the mound, he will not stay on the fringe of these lists for long. 4. Eduardo Tait, C Tait made one of the biggest year-over-year jumps among Twins prospects. ESPN ranked him 38th overall, the highest placement he received from any outlet. MLB.com slotted him in at number 65, a significant rise after opening 2025 ranked 93rd. Tait also cracked The Athletic’s list at 93rd after being left off entirely last winter. Baseball America was the lone publication to exclude him from its Top 100, highlighting just how varied the industry still is on young catchers. Following his acquisition in the Jhoan Duran trade last July, Tait has quickly established himself as one of the better catching prospects in the organization, as well as a key piece of Minnesota’s future. Though he finished last year as a teenager at High-A Cedar Rapids, he has a long way to go before reaching Target Field. 3. Kaelen Culpepper, SS Culpepper is one of three Twins prospects to appear on all four national lists, and his steady rise reflects how quickly he has moved since being selected in the first round of the 2024 draft. Culpepper finished 2025 slashing .289/.375/.469, with a 138 wRC+ between Cedar Rapids and Double-A Wichita. ESPN ranked him 79th; MLB Pipeline placed him at 52nd; Baseball America had him 74th; and The Athletic came in at 82nd. At 23 years old, Culpepper continues to prove that his bat and defensive ability can handle aggressive assignments. If that trend continues, his national ranking could climb even higher by next winter, when he should be on the cusp of providing big-league value. 2. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF Rodriguez remains one of the most fascinating evaluations in the Twins system because of his unique player profile. He hits for power (.409 SLG), draws a ton of walks (20.6 BB%), and strikes out a lot (31.8 K%). ESPN ranked him 93rd, while MLB Pipeline placed him 74th. Baseball America and The Athletic both landed on 57th. Rodriguez’s ranking with MLB Pipeline has been especially volatile in recent years. He climbed from 88th before 2023 to 42nd before 2024 and then 37th before 2025. Injuries over the last two seasons have slowed that momentum, leading to his current slide. When healthy, Rodriguez has shown impact offensive tools. He should debut for the Twins in 2026. Like Culpepper, he is one of three Minnesota prospects to show up on all four national lists. 1. Walker Jenkins, OF Jenkins remains the crown jewel of the Twins system, even as his exact standing has shifted this winter. Baseball America ranked him fifth overall, his highest placement entering the 2026 cycle. ESPN also kept him inside the top 10, at number nine. MLB Pipeline dropped Jenkins out of the top 10, after he opened the 2025 season ranked third in all of baseball. Despite that slide, Jenkins continued to move through the system, finishing the year at Triple-A St. Paul. In his first 23 games at the level, he posted a .719 OPS with two home runs and eight RBIs, following a dominant stretch at Wichita wherein he recorded a .912 OPS in 52 games. Jenkins will open the season with St. Paul, but could make his major-league debut at just 21 years old. Keith Law of The Athletic dropped Jenkins from fourth in his 2025 rankings to 11th to begin 2026, citing durability more than performance. “I’m worried about his trouble staying healthy, but not worried about the offensive profile, even with the hiccup in St. Paul to end the year,” Law wrote. “He’s got a fantastic swing that will allow him to barrel the ball very consistently, and there’s 25-plus homer power in there as he refines his approach.” Overall, the Twins may not have the deepest collection of Top-100 prospects in baseball, but the talent at the top is undeniable. Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Culpepper provide three legitimate building blocks, while Tait and Prielipp offer upside that could reshape future lists if things break right. As spring training approaches, development and health will play a major role in how this group is viewed nationally a year from now. Which Twins prospect do you think is most likely to outperform their current national ranking in 2026? 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As the calendar nears February, just a couple weeks away from the beginning of spring training, the San Diego Padres' roster feels incomplete. Another starting pitcher and a player on the right side of the infield, whether at second base or first, would make Friars fans more comfortable as the Padres attempt to dethrone the Los Angeles Dodgers not only in the NL West, but as two-time defending World Series champions. What could be the holdup? Certainly not the curiosity of A.J. Preller, the Padres' president of baseball operations. Preller crawls under rocks to find players to bring to San Diego and goes out and gets them. While the overall tenor of this offseason has been slow, with more movement in January than in the month of December and the Winter Meetings, the Padres have clearly been limited for financial reasons. If they wanted to add a premier arm via free agency, that would cost anywhere from $20 million to $30 million. A hitter, especially with those remaining on the market, would be less than that. Not a problem, right? Petco Park is sold out basically every night, which means lots of food, drink and memorabilia sold at every home game. Except for one thing. The Padres' payroll sits at about $226 million per Spotrac and $217 million per Cot's. Those are Opening Day salary numbers and not competitive-balance tax numbers, which are the ones that owners truly care about regarding paying potential penalties for various thresholds. Those jump up to $269 million and $263 million, respectively. The level at which teams started paying a CBT penalty in 2025 was $241 million. The Padres' CBT payroll in 2025 was $270 million, on which they paid a 32% penalty on the amount above $241 million. That means a roughly $9.3 million tax from last year. The penalties increase each consecutive year a team is a payor. (For clarity, it is a 20% flat charge for a first-year violation on anything over the first threshold with a $12% addition for being $20 million-$40 million above that number. That gets you to 32%.) That $241 million modestly increases to $244 million in 2026, per the current collective bargaining agreement. Taking the lower of the $269 million (Spotrac) and $263 million (Cot's) projected CBT payrolls, which includes benefits payments and contributions for the one-to-three-year player-pool bonuses, that puts the Friars at $19 million above the initial CBT threshold. As a second-year payor, that hikes the Padres' tax rate to a 30%, Going above $264 million, which is a certainty as the roster is currently constructed, adds the 12% penalty for being $20 million-$40 million above the initial threshold. That makes the total tax at this point 42%. At the lowest end of that, the Friars face an $8.4 million penalty. That is without spending another dollar above $264 million. A $10 million signing or acquisition, barring any subtractions in a trade, would put that number at $274 million and a $12.6 million tax. Adding another $20 million in payroll this season would put the Padres at $284 million, which is $40 million above the initial threshold and jumps the 12% surcharge to 42.5%. That would make the penalty 72.5% for anything above $244 million and take the financial hit to $29 million. For a team that has reportedly had past financial issues and is currently being shopped around for sale, that would seem to be a steep price. Unless, of course, a sale is further down the road than we are aware of and the new, deep-pocketed owner has given their approval. Which, as you know, is unlikely, and would still be a hard sell given the copious amounts of onerous, long-term contracts the Friars have on the books. In 2023, the Padres had the highest payroll in franchise history at $291.2 million. This season is rapidly approaching besting last year's $270 million, the No. 2 figure. Pending changes to the CBA next offseason, the Friars are facing a third straight year of being a payor in 2027. Under the current system, that would hike the base tax rate from 30% to 50%. The question remains: Are the Padres willing to spend more to compete or roll the dice with what they have? View the full article

The Minnesota Twins have been steadily stacking their farm system for a while now, and these three prospects are primed for a leap in 2026. Kaelen Culpepper has one of the highest floors of any prospect in baseball at the moment, and one of his weakest supposed tools (power) has jolted awake. Emmanuel Rodriguez registered an on-base percentage north of .400 in the upper levels of MiLB last year, but he needs to get and stay healthy. Connor Prielipp has a sharp three-pitch mix and has been averaging north of 11 strikeouts per nine innings. Learn all about these three up-and-coming talents in this Twins Daily video! View the full article

While Chicago was just a game away from getting back to the NLCS for the first time since 2017, there's still plenty of margin to catch up to the Dodgers and Phillies of the world, never mind the Brewers in their own division. Dansby Swanson can make a few offensive adjustments that we cover; Justin Steele's situation fits the health-is-wealth saying more than ever (especially with some pitchers on contract years); and Colin Rea may be the most important plug-and-play piece of all. We cover all of it right here on North Side Baseball. View the full article

With last week's trade of right-handed starter Freddy Peralta, the message from the Milwaukee Brewers was clear: No one is safe from being traded. Peralta was dealt to the New York Mets as he entered his final season of team control. It happened to right-handed closer Devin Williams last offseason, and with right-handed starter and 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes two offseasons ago. Memorably, they also dealt closer Josh Hader at the 2022 trade deadline. Only shortstop Willy Adames was not moved before his final season with the Crew, in 2024. (Brandon Woodruff's injury took him out of this equation and offered the team a different dilemma about him between 2023 and 2024, instead.) Who is next in the spotlight? There are three candidates for the same treatment next winter: catcher William Contreras, right-handed closer Trevor Megill and first baseman Andrew Vaughn. All will be entering their final season of arbitration eligibility, with free agency looming after 2027. Thus, trade speculation on all three can commence. Contreras and Megill have the most value, with Vaughn probably still needing a productive full season with the Brewers to boost his stock. Let's take a look at all three, what their value is, and why they would be traded. WILLIAM CONTRERAS Contreras is the Crew's second-best player, after outfielder Jackson Chourio. When the Brewers swooped in to acquire Contreras from Atlanta in a three-team trade that included the Oakland A's, Contreras was an offense-first catcher who wasn't that good defensively. My, how times have changed. Thanks to the Brewers' ability to develop catchers, mainly under the tutelage of Charlie Greene, Contreras is still a good hitter but is now a pretty decent defender, too. That's made him one of the top overall catchers in the majors, a position that traditionally lacks consistent offensive production. In his three seasons in Milwaukee, Contreras has been a middle-of-the-order bat. While there has felt like there was more power available, Contreras has hit 17, 23 and 17 homers in the three seasons since the trade. He hit 20 homers in 97 games in his final season in Atlanta, when he mainly was the designated hitter, but he was also much of an all-or-nothing slugger back then. Contreras has become a more disciplined hitter, increasing his walk rate from 10.3% to 11.5% to 12.7% with the Crew, while his strikeout rate dropped from 20.5% in 2024 to 18.2% in 2025. Due to a broken middle finger on his catching hand that affected him the entire 2025 season, Contreras's slash line was down from his first two seasons in Milwaukee. After posting slash lines of .289/.367/.457 in 2023 and .281/.365/.466 in 2024, he dropped down to .260/.355/.399 last year. That dropped his fWAR from 5.8 to 5.5 to 3.6. Contreras had a procedure following the season to address the injury, which occurred during the 2024 season, so he should be at full strength entering 2026. That will allow Contreras to author what is likely his final chapter in a Brewers uniform. At a minimum, he will see his salary rise to $8.55 million, the figure the Brewers submitted for an arbitration hearing and the current record for a second-year arbitration-eligible catcher. Contreras is seeking $9.9 million. Whether the two sides will settle, as they did last year, is up for debate. Even another chunky raise next offseason makes him an affordable trade target to other teams, as the Brewers churn their roster without continual long-term investments. Providing he puts up similar offensive numbers to his first two years with the Crew, the return for Contreras should rival what the Brewers got for Peralta. If the right suitor emerges, they might even top it. TREVOR MEGILL Megill is a different animal. While Contreras was a well-known prospect, Megill has been a player who was waived, signed a minor-league contract, and was dealt for a player to be named later. However, he has found a home with the Crew. Following a 5.62 FIP and 8.37 ERA in 28 games with the Chicago Cubs in 2021 and a 3.29 FIP and 4.80 ERA in 39 appearances with the Minnesota Twins in 2022, the Brewers acquired him on Apr. 30, 2023. After a good first season in which he had a 2.13 FIP and 3.63 ERA in 2023, Megill grew into a late-inning role and took over as closer when Williams got hurt. He converted 21 of 24 save opportunities in 2024 and was the easy choice as closer entering 2025, when he had 30 saves in 36 tries. He increased his ERA+ from 119 in 2023 to 153 in 2024 and 168 last year. Megill's value has been built on his consistency as a back-end reliever. He did have an elbow injury late in the 2025 season that cost him a month, but he was back for the postseason—although right-hander Abner Uribe handled the closing duties. The Brewers are unlikely to move on from Megill, who will make $4.7 million in 2026, while in contention during the season, but with Uribe primed to be the next closer, the writing is on the wall. Megill doesn't have the credentials that Williams and Hader established during their Milwaukee careers, but his steadiness and the sturdy demand for a reliable right-handed reliever will bring back at least one good prospect, should he be traded. ANDREW VAUGHN We all saw what a change of scenery did for Vaughn. His July was electric. Following a June trade with the Chicago White Sox for right-hander Aaron Civale and a couple weeks at Triple-A Nashville, Vaughn hit the ground running with a homer in his first plate appearance and put up a .365/.426/.731 slash line in 16 July games, with five homers and 21 RBIs. Conversely, Vaughn logged a .189/.218/.314 slash line with five homers and 19 RBIs in 48 games with the White Sox before the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 draft was sent to Triple-A Charlotte. He cooled off a bit, but still finished the regular season with a .308/.375/.493 slash line for the Crew, with nine homers and 46 RBIs in 64 games and a 99 wRC+. Vaughn has a career slash line of .253/.310/.414, with his best season before 2025 being 2022, when he had a slash line of .271/.321/.429 with 17 homers and 76 RBIs. Another season like that would restore Vaughn's luster, but it would also likely price Vaughn out of any sort of future with the Brewers. He's making $7.65 million and would probably bump up to around $11 million in 2027. Only outfielder Christian Yelich ($24 million and change) and right-handed starter Brandon Woodruff ($22.025 million) make more than $10 million on this year's roster. The question will be whether Vaughn can replicate the final three months of 2025, or whether there will be regression. Any prolonged slump could see Vaughn off the Crew's roster in one form or the other. But a successful season will make him a commodity that the Brewers can cash in next offseason—unless, by then, they've locked him up on an under-market medium-term deal. If Vaughn does come back to Earth (even to the aforementioned 2022 level) in 2026, he'll be a non-tender candidate next winter. To avoid that risk and secure generational wealth now, might he consider a three- or four-year deal that offers the Brewers a club option or two and some cost certainty? We'll see. The team isn't averse to extensions, but they need leverage to get the terms that make such deals make sense for them. With Contreras and Megill, that leverage is lacking. With Vaughn, it's there. All three of these players are trade candidates next winter, unless and until something major happens to change that. 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The 2026 MLB season is right around the corner, and we're looking to expand our video coverage. Have you ever considered being on-camera and talking about the Royals? If yes, we'd love to talk to you about it. Our videos are typically in a wide variety of styles: breaking news, analysis, and historical study. We're open to any and all ideas as long as they're centered around the Kansas City Royals. We're looking for serious baseball talk, so leave the hot takes at home. If you'd like to learn more about this cool little side gig, please email Brock Beauchamp at brock.beauchamp@royalskeep.com. Here is an example of a recent Royals video from us: View the full article

The 2026 MLB season is right around the corner, and we're looking to expand our video coverage. Have you ever considered being on-camera and talking about the Brewers? If yes, we'd love to talk to you about it. Our videos are typically in a wide variety of styles: breaking news, analysis, and historical study. We're open to any and all ideas as long as they're centered around the Milwaukee Brewers. We're looking for serious baseball talk, so leave the hot takes at home. If you'd like to learn more about this cool little side gig, please email Brock Beauchamp at brock.beauchamp@brewerfanatic.com. Here is an example of a recent Brewers video from us: View the full article

Over the weekend, MLB Network announced their annual list of the Top 100 players in Major League Baseball. The Chicago Cubs were well-represented on the list, with their four names — Alex Bregman, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, and Seiya Suzuki — tied for the fourth-most on a given roster. Of course, the more notable aspect of the release of the list is the player that was not included: Nico Hoerner. It's not just the fact that Hoerner finished being only Crow-Armstrong as the Cubs' most valuable player by fWAR in 2025 (4.8). Nor is it that said fWAR finished 20th among all position players last year. Either one likely should have qualified him for inclusion, especially when one considers Hoerner's offensive skill set that featured a blend of a 99th percentile strikeout rate (7.6 percent) and whiff rate (11.2 percent), while he finished in the 98th percentile on the other side of the ball in Outs Above Average (14). It's not even that his omission disrespects his value within the broader scope of the sport. It's that it entirely disregards Hoerner's standing within his own position. MLB Networks' list featured just four players at the keystone: Ketel Marte (No. 19), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (No. 61), Brice Turang (No. 62), and Jose Altuve (No. 81). If not elite, Marte certainly lives in the second tier of positional performers. Chisholm finished with an even split of 31 home runs and 31 steals. Turang had an offensive breakout in his third year in the league, hitting more homers (18) than he did in his first two years combined while adding 24 swipes and playing exemplary defense. Jose Altuve continued to do the things he's always done. If you were to list the top five second basemen in the sport at present, it'd be a tough sell to exclude any of them. There's a reason Hoerner sat atop the WAR leaderboard for the position, though. He, quite obviously, lacks the power upside of the other four. His .097 isolated power was his lowest in a full season even by his modest standards. That shouldn't understate his value elsewhere, though. Hoerner's contact rate (89.9 percent) was more than seven percent better than Altuve's. His strikeout rate was more than seven percent better than Marte's. His comprehensive baserunning metric (BsR) checked in at 4.5, with Turang's 2.9 checking in second at the position.. And that doesn't include the defensive component. Hoerner's OAA (14) at second was miles ahead of each of the names included in the Top 100. Chisholm Jr is the next name on the list of this group at No. 4 (8 OAA). Marte (1) follows at No. 20, with Altuve (0) and Turang (0) bringing their precisely average figures to the table. It's also worth noting that Altuve spent nearly 400 innings in left field while Chisholm Jr was at third base for 238 frames. Not that splitting time at another position should be disqualifying in any way, but if there was any semblance of a positional spread on this list, then it becomes even more perplexing with that fact in mind. Regardless, when measuring Hoerner against his keystone counterparts, it starts to become clear what this particular list values. Those values do not, apparently, lie in contact, baserunning, or defense, but more likely power. From a positional standpoint, MLB Network wanted louder names on the list than a steady, reliable, contact-oriented hitter with an elite glove. Not that we're suggesting that compiling this list is easy. At a given time, there are 780 active players in Major League Baseball. Roughly 12 percent of the league is featured as a result, or roughly three players from every roster if it was evenly spread. Having to include a balance of position players and pitchers makes it all the more cumbersome. Even when you start to reduce some of the percentages as to how many players, on average, might be selected or the overall percentage of names on the list, it's wildly difficult to make a case against Hoerner's inclusion. And we've only discussed it within the context of his position. The good news is that a list such of this can be read as arbitrary enough, given the names and selection factors that may have been involved, to ultimately not matter. It's nice to have the loud skill sets on your roster, and the Cubs have some of that scattered throughout this group of players. Ideally, though, a list such as this doesn't lead to an under-appreciation of the stability offered by a player like Nico Hoerner, who is as worthy as any of those who were fortunate enough to be recognized. View the full article

The Kansas City Royals bullpen put together a strong season in 2025, seeing Carlos Estévez lead Major League Baseball in saves, Lucas Erceg lead all Royal receivers with a FIP of 3.49, and John Schreiber appeared in the 10th most games amongst all relievers, totalling 64 innings. The off-season has seen the Royals go out and acquire Matt Strahm from the Philadelphia Phillies and Nick Mears from the Milwaukee Brewers, to help bolster a Royals bullpen that recorded the seventh-lowest earned run average and eighth-least home runs in MLB. Héctor Neris was picked up on a minor league deal, Luinder Avila flashed potential in September, and Daniel Lynch IV found success in the left-hander’s first full season as a reliever. With under one month until pitchers and catchers report for spring training, here is a look at Luke Jackson, Justin Wilson, and Scott Barlow, as relievers the Royals could look to add prior to camp opening. Luke Jackson Jackson appeared in 52 games in 2025, totalling 51 innings across three teams. The 34-year-old pitched for the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers before closing out the season with the Seattle Mariners. Jackson totalled a record of 2-5 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. The numbers don’t jump off the screen at you, but it was Jackson’s third stop of 2025 with the Mariners that gave reason to believe that Jackson still has the ability to be elite. The Mariners have a history of helping pitchers reach a new level, and that is what pitching coach Pete Woodworth may have helped Jackson do. In 10 games after being acquired by the Mariners, Jackson posted an ERA of 2.38, FIP of 2.69, WHIP of 0.88, and held opposing batters to an average of .162 in those 11 ⅓ innings. The strikeout numbers also jumped, sitting down 10 batters via a punch out across those appearances. Justin Wilson Wilson has pitched with seven franchises over his 13-year career, most recently spending 2025 with the Boston Red Sox. In 61 games, Wilson posted a record of 4-1, an ERA of 3.35, and a WHIP of 1.41. This was the second straight season that the left-hander pitched in at least 60 games, and the seventh time overall. Wilson totalled a FIP of 2.95 in 2025 and struck out 57 batters in 48 ⅓ innings. Wilson held left-handed batters to an average of .212 and would give Royals manager Matt Quataro another trusted arm alongside the current lefties, Strahm and Lynch IV. In Wilson’s career, the 36-year-old has made the postseason seven times, recording a career ERA of 1.29, while limiting opposing batters to an average of .129. Wilson pitched in one playoff game in 2025 for the Red Sox, going 1 ⅔ innings against the New York Yankees, allowing no hits. The veteran presence could help give a young Royals team someone to turn to as the development of arms continues in 2026. Scott Barlow A potential reunion of the former Royals closer, Barlow, who spent the 2025 season with the Cincinnati Reds. In 75 games, Barlow posted a record of 6-3, totalling 4.21 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. In 68 ⅓ innings, Barlow struck out 75 batters. Barlow is a pitcher who takes the ball when his name is called. In the past five seasons, Barlow has appeared in 71, 69, 63, 63, and 75 games. As many fans know, injuries can mount at any time, and having a durable arm that can routinely take the ball can help save bullpens from being overworked. Barlow’s FIP totalled in at 4.70 in 2025, the highest of the right-hander’s career, but the strikeouts were still there. Barlow retired 75 batters via the strikeout, up from 2024 when Barlow struck out 68. Opposing batters were only able to hit .200 off Barlow, the second-lowest average against of the 33-year-old’s career. View the full article

After they traded a majority of their bullpen at the trade deadline last year, the Twins had a bunch of bullpen innings to cover in the final two months. Many of those went to marginal veteran placeholders like Thomas Hatch, Michael Tonkin, Erasmo Ramirez and Genesis Cabrera. More intriguing to follow were internally-developed arms Travis Adams and Pierson Ohl, who ranked 6th and 7th in pitching appearances for the Twins after July 31st. While hardly top prospects or household names, Adams and Ohl seemed like credible contenders to carve out a role in Minnesota's reconstructed relief corps. As unremarkable minor-league starters whose stuff and results showed potential to jump in shorter stints, both looked similar enough to many of the pitchers who previously broke through in the Twins bullpen — including the remaining ringleader Cole Sands. Ohl was recently designated for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster, and on Wednesday he was traded alongside Edouard Julien to the Rockies. Adams remains on the 40-man, for now, and he's one of only six pitchers with any real experience as major-league relievers. That doesn't guarantee Adams will stick around through the spring, but the front office has continually shown an auspicious level of faith in the right-hander. I find myself wondering why. Let's compare Adams with the now-departed Ohl to try and figure out what's driving the team's confidence. Similar Track Records in the Twins System Adams and Ohl are both 26 years old. Both were drafted out of college in 2021 — Adams in the sixth round, Ohl in the 14th. In the minor leagues they posted similar numbers, although Ohl was a little better across the board in terms of performance. Here are their totals in five minor-league seasons: Adams: 407.1 IP, 4.44 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.27 WHIP Ohl: 394 IP, 3.61 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 1.13 WHIP Neither really ever emerged on the top prospect radar, although they'd occasionally pop up on longer lists and in sleeper conversations. Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic had Ohl ranked 25th on his 2024 preseason list, with Adams unranked, and then in 2025 had Adams ranked in the same spot with Ohl falling out of the top 40. This flip-flop points to an upward trend for Adams in the 2024 season (3.90 ERA in 127 IP at AA/AAA) and a downward one from Ohl (4.68 ERA in 102 IP at AA). It was enough to get Adams added to the 40-man roster afterward while Ohl went undrafted in the Rule 5. This also meant Adams was first in line for a major-league shot, debuting in early July of 2025 while Ohl had to wait until the end of the month. During their limited time in the majors last year, much like during the balance of their minor-league careers ... Ohl sure looked like the better pitcher. Ohl Outperforms Adams During MLB Bullpen Audition Let's be clear: neither of these guys was good in 2025. Ohl posted a 5.10 ERA in his 30 innings of work, although it came along with a 27-to-7 K/BB ratio and respectable 4.20 FIP. Meanwhile, Adams put up a brutal 7.49 ERA in 33 ⅔ innings, sprinkling in repeated blow-up spots. He averaged nearly a strikeout per inning but also walked 10.8% of opposing hitters, roughly double the rate of Ohl. What's really interesting is the way the usage of these two pitchers evolved in tandem. Early on they were used in extended, inning-eating roles, even making occasional spot starts. When the calendar flipped to September, and the Twins seemingly got a little more serious about trying to evaluate what they had, both were used almost exclusively in shorter, higher-effort, one-inning stints. Between July and August, Adams and Ohl threw 40-plus pitches in 13 of their 15 appearances. In September, they made 17 combined appearances and only one of those included more than 40 pitches thrown. It was Ohl's first outing of the month, in which he gave up four earned runs. From then on, his numbers: 8 IP, 0 ER, 9 K, 1 BB, 5 H. Among Twins relievers he ranked second only to Kody Funderburk in September WPA. On the surface, it was everything you'd want to see from a guy making his case to contend for a job in the 2026 bullpen. Adams didn't fare so well in the shorter September stints. His numbers: 10.1 IP, 9 ER, 10 K, 5 BB, 9 H. He couldn't be trusted to come in and pitch through an inning, much less do so cleanly. So Why Did the Twins Prefer Adams? I realize we are working with very small samples in the analysis above. I'm not trying to overblow the significance. But Adams has been outperformed by Ohl over the breadth of their careers so far, and especially in last September's mini-audition. Nonetheless, Ohl was first out the door. When you look at the repertoires it is a little easier to see why. Ohl's approach is built around excellent control and a standout changeup that he threw a ton (37%), but he doesn't have much in terms of a third or fourth pitch. His 91-MPH fastball is in the 15th percentile for velo and got blasted for a .370 batting average. It's tough to succeed in relief without at least a decent fastball as your base, especially without an assortment of secondaries you can credibly mix in. Adams' heater is nothing special but he throws it in the mid-90s and it held its own (.351 xwOBA vs. 432 for Ohl). He's got five different pitches he threw at least 10% of the time with the Twins, including a slider that shows real promise. You squint at him and you can see the raw profile that eventually turned into Sands, or even Griffin Jax. Regardless, Adams hasn't ever performed all that well in the minors and he got bashed in the majors. Despite an evident stuff advantage over Ohl, he was worse by almost any metric, including chase rate and strikeout rate. You might be saying, "Nick, I can't believe you've spent all this time weighing the merits of two borderline MLB arms like these," and you'd have a fair point. But it's been that kind of offseason, and as a result, there's a lot of pressure to get these decisions right. Even if the Twins add another veteran reliever or two, pitchers like Adams are going to get opportunities, and dark horses will need to emerge. For now, the Twins are committed to sticking with Adams in that mix, while Ohl moves on to see how his signature changeup plays in the Colorado altitude. While I'd like to believe they made the right choice, their history with keeping the right fringy relief pitchers is hardly infallible. View the full article

Pitchers and catchers report for spring training in Dunedin, Florida, on February 11. The rest of the team reports on the 16, and games begin five days later. The Toronto Blue Jays may be done adding to their offense, as all the big-dollar free agents have signed elsewhere. They did add Kazuma Okamoto, who comes over from Japan on a four-year, $60 million contract. With him added, let's take a look at how the batting order may come together versus right and left-handed pitchers. Predicting the Blue Jays' Batting Order Against RHP George Springer, DH - R Addison Barger, RF - L Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B - R Anthony Santander, LF - S Kazuma Okamoto, 3B - R Daulton Varsho, CF - L Alejandro Kirk, C - R Ernie Clement, 2B - R Andrés Giménez, SS - L Springer will deservedly return to the leadoff spot, where he's had 4,787 career plate appearances. Batting first, he has a career .270/.354/.481 slash line, 221 home runs, 761 runs, and 80 stolen bases. Even though he's 36, there's no one on the roster who should be considered to replace Springer atop the batting order if he stays productive. Nathan Lukes was often seen in the second spot down the stretch last season, but with everyone healthy and Okamoto pushing Barger to the outfield, Lukes will find himself a bench player at the start of the season. Last year was full of ups and downs for Barger, but he will look to bring his 115 wRC+ against righties into the upcoming season. It'll be his third year in the big leagues, but he will find himself in a platoon at the beginning of the season, as he struggled against lefties in 2025 (69 wRC+). There's no question who will bat third. Guerrero is by far the best hitter on the Blue Jays and one of the best in MLB. After him is where the debate will begin. The fourth through seventh hitters can be interchangeable depending on production. If Santander can return to his 2024 form, that of a player who had 44 home runs and 102 RBIs for the Baltimore Orioles, then he'll stay slotted into the cleanup spot all season since he's a switch-hitter. But let's be honest, Blue Jay fans will take anything better than Santander's production in his debut season in Toronto. Spring training will be Okamoto's first chance to show the Blue Jays he can bring his power bat from Japan to America. If he adjusts to MLB pitchers, then this signing will be a home run. He hit 15 homers last season, but an elbow injury caused him to miss over three months. Okamoto had a career-high 41 home runs in 2023, so he could be a great protection bat behind Santander. If Santander struggles again, Varsho should move to the four-hole as a left-handed power hitter. However, to start the season, Varsho should slot into the sixth spot to break up the righties at the end of the lineup. He started last season on the injured list, recovering from a 2024 shoulder surgery, and missed two months halfway through the season with a hamstring injury. If Varsho can stay healthy, we could witness his best season yet. Despite the missed time, Varsho was on pace for a career season in 2025. He had 20 home runs over 271 plate appearances, which was short of the 27 he hit in 2022, but he had 321 more plate appearances that year. The center fielder did complete the season with a career high 123 wRC+. Kirk could bat fifth and move Okamoto to the seventh spot in the batting order. The drastic power discrepancy is why I put Okamoto fifth, though. The Blue Jays' catcher has never been a power hitter, but last season he set career highs in home runs (15) and RBIs (76). What Kirk does well is put the ball in play, backed by a .292 BABIP and only an 11.7 strikeout percentage in 2025. He'd be a great contact bat to help knock in whatever runs the powerful three through six hole batters leave on the basepaths. Clement can bat eighth after an outstanding 2025 postseason. He slashed .411/.416/.398, scored 13 runs, and posted an incredible 171 wRC+ over 77 plate appearances. His 30 hits set an MLB record in a single postseason. If he keeps making contact at such a high level, he could find himself slotted in the two hole if Barger starts slow. Giménez will bat ninth as he's a defensive specialist. He started hot last season, hitting three home runs in 22 March plate appearances; however, he only hit four more in his remaining 347 trips to the plate. His .598 OPS was a career-worst over his six MLB seasons. Predicting the Blue Jays' Batting Order Against LHP George Springer, DH - R Ernie Clement, 2B - R Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B - R Anthony Santander, RF - S Kazuma Okamoto, 3B - R Alejandro Kirk, C - R Davis Schneider, LF - R Myles Straw, CF - R Andrés Giménez, SS - L Against left-handed pitchers, the batting order only has a few changes, mainly replacing some of the left-handed hitters. I'd move Clement to the second spot because of the contact skills he possesses. I replaced Varsho with Straw to get a right-handed bat in the lineup. The Blue Jays limited Varsho's reps against lefties last season, as well; he only has 56 plate appearances against southpaws, compared to 215 appearances against right-handers. Straw won't provide substantial offensive production, but last season he had some success on balls in play (.308 BABIP), leading to his best wRC+ (91) since 2021. The final change is replacing Barger with Schneider. Schneider surprisingly struggled against southpaws last season with a .215 batting average, though he had a .708 OPS and a 106 wRC+ against them. I acknowledged Barger's struggles versus lefties earlier, which makes Schneider an obvious replacement. Though exactly how Schneidet fits in this lineup is a little head-scratching. The Blue Jays will also have Tyler Heineman (switch-hitter) and Lukes (left-handed bat) that they can utilize in games. However, if I were the manager, this is the batting order I'd roll out. The Blue Jays have the pleasure of having massive power potential this year. It could be an electric season as fans hope to witness another World Series run, but with a different final outcome. View the full article

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