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Earlier this week, Matt Trueblood explored whether a pair of Chicago Cubs infielders can continue to thrive in a specific nuance within their offensive skill set. That was an analysis of squared-up contact off the bats of Nico Hoerner and Alex Bregman. Relatedly, today, let's dig into Hoerner, and how some of that clean contact translated into power production as last year wore on. In 2025, Nico Hoerner had his best offensive season to date. His wRC+, at 109, was a shade above the previous career mark set in 2022, while his strikeout (7.6%) and contact (89.8%) rates each checked in above anything else he'd turned in prior to last year. Such obscene contact rates aren't always indicative of quality offensive performance on their own (see Luis Arráez), but the combination of all-fields contact and the baserunning component helped him be one of the Cubs' most important bats despite the extremely limited power inherent to his skill set. It's that power aspect of his game that we're most interested in. Hoerner's .097 isolated power was his lowest output since 2021, and his 30.3% hard-hit rate checked in below his career average. However, looking at the full-season numbers might be hiding a small breakout. Hoerner's second half of the season was better than his first in almost every way. He went for a 122 wRC+, with an average that was nearly 30 points higher and a much better OBP than in the first half. His walk rate was one percentage point higher (6.6%), while his strikeout remained about the same. He also hit for slightly more power. First Half: .094 ISO, 27.5 Hard-Hit%, 17.6% Line Drives, 16.0% Fly Balls Second Half: .100, 34.3%, 24.3%, 30.0% The first thing worth noting there is the minimal gap in ISO figures. Isolated power shows only how many extra bases (beyond singles) a player produces per at-bat, but if we were to throw in slugging percentage to fold in his extra singles, we'd see a jump from .377 in the first half to .418 in the second. His expected slugging increased much more, though. Hoerner went from a .361 xSLG in the first half to a .432 in the second. As it was, he ended up with fewer doubles but more home runs than he had in the first half, all in roughly 100 fewer plate appearances. Hoerner was, objectively, a more powerful hitter in the second half of 2025 than he was in the first. That brings us to the natural question of whether or not we'll see any carryover early in 2026. The squared-up contact explored by Trueblood does not necessarily beget power outcomes. The mechanics of a swing are prone to too much nuance to simply declare a hitter who can square the ball up can also actually drive it. In Hoerner's case, there doesn't appear to be anything specific in those mechanics that enhanced his power as the season wore on. His bat speed changed only marginally throughout the months, while each of his attack direction and attack angle fluctuated in noisy ways that don't yield much of a narrative. If we're going to find evidence of real power development, we'll probably find it in his pitch selection. Hoerner's extra-base power comes mostly against fastballs. Fifteen of his doubles, three of his four triples, and three of his seven home runs came against that pitch type. However, there did not appear to be a concerted effort from Hoerner to swing at more fastballs as the year wore on: If there's anything in the fastball aspect, it's that Hoerner swung at more of them inside the zone in the last three months of the year. In July, he swung at 60.2% of fastballs in the zone, which increased to 63.8% in August and 66.4% in September. For a certified trend, however, we need to keep looking. The following is (first) where Hoerner's ISO came from in the first half of the season, and (second) his swing rate by location for that period: The minimal hot spots on his ISO chart are unsurprising, given how little we saw from that aspect of Hoerner's output in the first half. He needed to be able to drop the bat head on the ball and get around it, low and in, to produce power in that span. It's also not surprising that the range of hot spots in the swing rate is as expansive as it is; Hoerner is an aggressive hitter. He got more patient in the second half, though. When we shift each of these zones to the stretch after the All-Star Game, things get interesting. Potentially. While still a pretty wide set, Hoerner's swings became at least somewhat more concentrated on the middle and inner parts of the zone. Where has Hoerner been able to generate the most power in his career? You guessed it: Because of the small sample size, we can't say for sure that this is intentional, but it's a noteworthy change. If Hoerner is more committed to selectivity within the zone, emphasizing the locations where he can generate power but attacking in-zone fastballs, he could sustain a higher level of power production than he's shown for most of his time in the majors. We certainly shouldn't be expecting Hoerner to evolve into a 20-homer guy in 2026. Even his increased power output didn't put him on pace for anything like that. However, Hoerner seems to be honing an approach that can work in a more consistent way, with a balance of elite hitting for average and modest but measurable pop. View the full article

Milwaukee and Cleveland have a lot in common. They’re both in what many coastal dwellers would deem “flyover states." They both sit on the shores of one of the Great Lakes, where they became major hubs of commerce because of their ports. Both cities have seen their populations stagnate or shrink, relative to other big cities, as the things that powered their economies have been made obsolete or changed in such major ways that they no longer dominate the marketplace, but neither absorbed quite as hard a punch as Detroit and Pittsburgh did at the end of the 20th century and beginning of the 21st. They're tough, proud Midwestern towns. They have even more similarities when it comes to baseball. Both teams have found consistent regular-season success despite operating on a shoestring budget, but have failed to make deep runs. Neither city has won a World Series since color television was introduced to U.S. markets. The now-Guardians last won in 1948; Milwaukee hasn't seen a champion since before the Brewers came to town. However, one thing the Guardians have that the Brewers don’t is a player on a Hall of Fame track who will likely wear but one jersey for his entire career. Last week, José Ramírez agreed to an extension that will keep him under club control until 2032, his age-40 season. This is the third extension he has signed with the club, but given his consistently incredible production, it’s no wonder that Cleveland wanted to keep him around for the long haul. His $18.36-million salary in 2026 (it's $25 million, technically, but he'll receive just $15 million of it this year, and the deferral structure of the rest dramatically reduces its value) currently represents roughly 24% of the Guardians’ total payroll, which is more of an indictment of just how little the franchise spends than it is evidence that he’s being overpaid. The team’s current 40-man payroll of $76.2 million pales in comparison to the Brewers’ $123.5 million, which means that if they wanted to, Milwaukee could make a similar move. The Brewers are no stranger to getting ahead of the curve when it comes to locking down promising talent on team-friendly terms. In 2023, Jackson Chourio signed an eight-year, $82-million extension, the largest in history for a player yet to debut. Before the 2020 season, Freddy Peralta signed a five-year, $15.5-million extension with club options. Aaron Ashby signed a very similar deal, for slightly more money over the same span. None of these contracts quite stack up to Ramírez’s deal. Ashby has been held back by injury, Peralta was traded to the Mets this offseason, and Chourio could be a Brewer for life, but since he’ll be 30 years old when the final club option expires, there’s a chance he gets another long-term deal in free agency. Signing Chourio to that early deal did give the team both leverage and goodwill with him, and maybe they can convert that to tangible value by going to him with an offer for another extension in a few years, before the end of his current deal is really in sight. That's what's worked for the Guardians and Ramírez, but there's no guarantee that it will work the same way with Chourio. If none of these three will end up being Milwaukee’s Brewer for Life, are there other candidates for the role? On the current big-league roster, the answer is probably no. There simply isn’t enough compelling talent on a Hall of Fame trajectory (at least not yet) to justify it. The closest candidate might be Brice Turang, who has been one of the squad’s most valuable assets over the past two years. An extension may be in his near future, but he’ll likely hit the free market at least once before hanging up the cleats, especially if his production remains consistently strong. He's not terribly dissimilar to the player Ramírez was at the same stage in his career, when Cleveland first captured his long-term upside with a Peralta-like deal, but Turang has already made almost $7 million in professional baseball, not to mention the $4.15 million he'll earn on the deal he and the team have already struck for 2026. When Ramírez signed his first deal, he had made less than $1.5 million, and unlike Turang, his dad was not a former big-leaguer, so the promise of an eight-figure payday made a much bigger difference in his life. There’s more hope in the farm system. If anyone currently in the organization has a chance of being the next franchise player, it’s one of the Brewers’ top two prospects. Both Luis Peña (MLB No. 18 overall prospect) and Jesús Made (No. 4) already have considerable hype, despite neither player being 20 years old. Luis Peña signed for $800,000 in the 2024 class of international free agents and was exceptional in the 2024 Dominican Summer League, posting a 177 wRC+ and winning the batting title with a .393 average. He also stole 39 bases in just 44 games, making the most out of his 70-grade speed. His numbers were more modest in his first full season in the minor leagues, posting a 139 wRC+ in Low A but struggling to a 42 wRC+ over 109 plate appearances in High A. At 19 years old, he has plenty of time to develop, but there’s too much uncertainty to warrant an extension at this time. More plate appearances against higher-level competition will give us a better idea of how his game will adapt over time. Because his biggest strength is arguably his speed, we'll need more time to evaluate whether he can remain valuable into his late 20s and his 30s, once he loses a step. Made was a part of the same international free agent class as Peña, and got a bigger signing bonus ($950,000). Although he’s slightly younger, he dominated High A last year, posting a 157 wRC+ across 123 plate appearances, resulting in a short stint at Double-A Biloxi. He had a 12.8% walk rate across all levels of the minor leagues, but struggled to hit for power, posting an underwhelming .128 ISO. Although he didn’t get a chance to put his pop on full display, Made is an immensely well-rounded talent. He has few weaknesses in his game. His defensive flexibility is a strength, but the current goal seems to be to keep him at shortstop. If he stays the course, the offensive upside he brings to a premium defensive position could be too good to pass up. Ramírez debuted in 2013, at age 20, and by the time he was 24, he signed his first five-year deal for just $26 million. His style of play and versatile profile have allowed him to maintain a consistent level of production over his 13-year career, and he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down yet. As things stand, Made is the closest comparison to him within the Brewers system. Like Ramírez, Made is toolsy and already off to a hot start as a baseball professional. Like Ramírez, Made won’t get a lifetime extension off the bat; he'd have to earn it and decide to embrace the community multiple times. For a team with Milwaukee’s spending habits, getting a true franchise player is something most fans can only dream of. Christian Yelich is the closest thing the organization currently has, and he spent several of his best years in Miami. Even once you find that guy, when you play in the league's smallest media market, he has to want to be around for the long haul. Ramírez only got $50,000 when he first signed out of the Dominican Republic, so locking him up on that first contract was easy. With each of the last two, though, Cleveland has gotten very lucky—and has been rewarded for very good relationship-building. Ramírez loves the organization and the city, and he's agreed to deals he knew were less lucrative than ones he could have found elsewhere. If a player is ever going to have a Ramírez-like Brewers tenure spanning their entire career, it will have to be because they, too, have fallen so in love with the team, the city and the fans that they would eschew tens of millions to stay. That could be Chourio, Turang, Made or Peña, but the truth is that it's unlikely to happen at all—even in a city so significantly similar to the one where it's happening now. View the full article

Perhaps no other Twin in recent memory saw their prospect stock rise more rapidly than Zebby Matthews. Selected with the 234th pick in the 2022 draft out of Western Carolina and signed for a paltry $125,000, Matthews grew from an afterthought to a top prospect at virtually the speed of light, debuting by mid-August 2024. Unfortunately, Matthews’s once-bright flame has dimmed in the eyes of some, due to inconsistent performance across 117 major-league innings. His rise was fueled by an uncanny ability to live in the zone, missing bats and not giving up any walks, while drastically improving his fastball velocity. In the majors, his walk rates have nearly tripled from approximately 2.0% in the minors to 6.6%, while his strikeout rates have dropped by roughly eight percentage points. These decrements in performance, albeit in a relatively small sample, have begun to beg the question: Is Zebby Matthews’s future in the starting rotation or the bullpen? Zebby Matthews’s Stuff & Pitch Arsenal On paper, Matthews boasts a prototypical 2026 starting pitcher repertoire. He primarily relies on his four-seamer and slider, dispatching them against lefties (293 and 140, respectively, in 2025) and righties (263 and 199) at an equal clip. Matthews employs his cutter slightly more often against left-handed hitters (103 vs 73), though the sample size for each is quite small, and virtually only throws his changeup against lefties (104 vs. 39). Sprinkle in the occasional curve and sinker to keep hitters on their toes, and Matthews arsenal is sufficient for a starting pitcher… in theory. In practice, at least at the MLB-level to date, Matthews really only has one pitch that has performed well: his gyro slider. As shown in the movement profile graph and implied in the slider heat map above, Matthews’s slider features significantly more drop (vertical break) than it does sweep (horizontal break). This is due to the pitch featuring more gyroscopic (think football spiral) spin than side spin. Gyroscopic spin does not influence pitch movement, meaning that the majority of the ball’s movement is simply due to the pull of gravity as it flies through the air. Across 525 major league offerings, opposing hitters have managed a meager .568 OPS against Matthews’s slider, per FanGraphs, driven by a high-30% whiff rate in combination with a 42% ground ball rate. In essence, when Matthews’s throws his slider there’s high chance that the batter is either going to miss it entirely or pound it into the ground. The rest of Matthews’s arsenal has been varying degrees of lackluster, even this four-seam fastball, whose crazy velocity creep helped him rapidly rise through the minors. Pitchers can overpower minor league hitting with pure velocity, something Matthews and his mid-90s fastball accomplished. However, the same can’t be said for major league hitting. Generally speaking, if a fastball is going to be a pitcher’s best offering in the majors, it not only needs to possess high velocity readings but also have a movement profile that makes hitting it squarely extremely difficult. MLB hitters can hit straight gas; hitting moving or deceptive gas is much more difficult. When analyzing the movement profile, or shape, of a fastball, there are two metrics worth considering: induced vertical break and horizontal break. Induced vertical break measures how much the ball drops solely due to its spin, taking gravity out of the equation. If a fastball has a high degree of spin, it will, more often than not, register a higher induced vertical break, meaning it doesn’t drop. This will produce an illusion in the hitter’s brain, making it seem as though the ball is rising. Horizontal break measures how much the ball moves, well, horizontally; if it moves towards the glove side of the pitcher, we say it has ‘cut’, and if it moves towards the hand side, we say it has ‘run’. Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway% 2025 Four Seamer 556 263 293 41.1 96.2 123 112 40 25 8 0 7 30 85 .357 .303 .616 .571 .422 .394 92.7 23 2331 6.6 22.4 19.4 2025 Slider 339 199 140 25.1 88.2 113 107 16 11 2 0 3 50 58 .150 .184 .252 .326 .193 .237 87.5 10 2419 6.4 38.5 24.3 2025 Cutter 176 73 103 13.0 91.7 54 42 14 12 1 0 1 3 40 .333 .318 .429 .482 .405 .414 88.7 15 2494 6.5 24.2 8.6 2025 Changeup 143 39 104 10.6 87.5 32 31 11 7 3 0 1 1 31 .355 .317 .548 .426 .374 .346 86.3 6 1499 6.4 26.3 5.3 2025 Curveball 79 38 41 5.8 82.9 14 14 5 4 1 0 0 2 12 .357 .304 .429 .487 .342 .338 88.9 38 2435 6.3 34.5 10.5 2025 Sinker 60 58 2 4.4 95.8 18 17 8 8 0 0 0 2 16 .471 .264 .471 .320 .415 .255 77.2 6 2317 6.6 7.7 50.0 2024 Four Seamer 307 115 192 42.8 94.9 66 59 17 7 5 0 5 17 42 .288 .262 .627 .592 .417 .394 94.3 19 2230 6.5 17.8 21.3 2024 Slider 186 92 94 25.9 87.2 57 52 16 12 2 0 2 20 32 .308 .251 .462 .400 .363 .318 90.2 11 2349 6.4 37.6 23.5 2024 Cutter 116 62 54 16.2 90.9 30 29 10 7 0 0 3 2 27 .345 .295 .655 .674 .434 .418 87.3 17 2403 6.4 18.2 18.2 2024 Changeup 57 2 55 7.9 85.8 9 9 2 1 1 0 0 0 9 .222 .348 .333 .512 .237 .378 86.6 -5 1550 6.4 31.3 0.0 2024 Curveball 51 9 42 7.1 81.7 15 15 6 4 1 0 1 4 11 .400 .327 .667 .558 .455 .377 87.9 16 2369 6.3 17.4 14.8 Generally, there is a trade-off between a fastball’s induced vertical break and horizontal break; more in one generally leads to less of another. This is where Matthews’s fastballs—both his four-seam and sinker—struggle. The induced vertical break of his four-seamer is 16.6 inches, and his horizontal break is 9.0 inches of run; for his sinker, it is 13.1 inches and 15.2 inches, respectively. These are what are known in the industry as “dead zone” fastballs. Essentially, to the batter’s eye, they appear straight, not having enough induced vertical break to produce the rising illusion and not enough horizontal break to be difficult to square up. Since Matthews’s made his debut, opponents have produced a .944 OPS (839 pitches) against his four-seamer and a 1.368 OPS (82 pitches) against his sinker. His cutter (.955; 294), changeup (.817; 200), and curve (.931; 130) haven’t fared much better. However, there are some intriguing data points embedded within Matthews’s splits statistics. Namely, they suggest that he is much better against righties than lefties to the tune of .230 points of OPS (.944 OPS against 278 lefties and .714 OPS against 253 righties) and 4.0% K-BB% (20.2% vs. 16.2%). Which informs… What Should Zebby Matthews’s Role Be In 2026? It’s extremely difficult to be an MLB-caliber starting pitcher with only one good pitch. Luckily, carving out a productive career out of the bullpen is relatively achievable. Matthews’s career to date is not all that dissimilar to that of Glen Perkins, Tyler Duffey, and, more recently, Griffin Jax. These were all starting pitchers who experienced great success in the minors before struggling mightily once they reached the majors because their middling repertoires were exposed. However, a shift to the bullpen and increased emphasis on their best pitches transformed them into, at times, devastating backend relievers. For Matthews to project as a starting pitcher moving forward, he likely needs to add at least one more above-average pitch—perhaps a sweeper or kick-change to complement his gyro slider?—and/or improve the shape of his fastball. Neither is a particularly easy task, though adding a new pitch is significantly more trainable than adding isolated pitch spin/induced vertical break. The Twins have far more metrics available to them, including whether Matthews is more of a natural pronator or supinator, which would influence which pitches would be easier to add, as well as linear and rotational force-velocity data, which would indicate if there is any additional athletic performance meat being left on the bone. The Twins may continue to employ Matthews as a starter, but, as things stand right now, his profile is much more suitable for a bullpen role. View the full article

In what some (e.g., me) are calling the move of the offseason, the Boston Red Sox have traded Jordan Hicks to the Chicago White Sox in a move to get the majority of his salary off of their payroll. While moving Hicks to the other Sox team likely makes the bullpen better — his 8.20 ERA and -0.4 fWAR over 18 2/3 innings with the BoSox left much to be desired — it creates another hole to fill for Craig Breslow as spring training rapidly approaches. Hicks, for all his faults, was a power-throwing right-handed reliever. The biggest issue with the timing of the Hicks trade is that the free-agent market doesn’t offer a ton of upside at this point in the offseason. Craig Breslow has an affinity for making trades though, so there could be a deal to be found in the near future. With that in mind, let’s look at some arms that could enter the Red Sox's radar before Opening Day. Orion Kerkering, RHP, Phillies This may be the most farfetched option on the list, but it’s worth mentioning nonetheless. The Phillies believe they are closer to their title window closing than it opening and need to make some moves to get younger across the diamond. Kerkering is young, only 24, and would be costly to acquire with his four remaining years of team control. He features a three-pitch mix with a four-seam fastball that tops out at 97.5 mph and a sinker that clocks in at 96.4. His sweeper works as an out-pitch and has enough break to be useful against left-handed hitters as well. Getting him in Andrew Bailey’s pitching lab could help unlock the next gear for Kerkering, even if the cost to land him is greater than others on this list. Lucas Erceg, RHP, Royals The Royals and Red Sox have been rumored to be perfect trade partners for practically the entire offseason, but maybe we all were focused on the wrong Royal in the deal. Sure, Cole Ragans was enticing, but with Ranger Suarez in the rotation, Breslow could pivot to another arm in Kansas City that would help solidify the bullpen. Erceg has the firepower with two pitches, his fastball and sinker, to replace Hicks in the pen while upping the production from the same spot. Erceg’s fastball tops out at 97.6 mph while his sinker comes in at 97.5. He also employs a slider and changeup that induce groundball outs. He’s under arbitration and won’t be a free agent until 2030 so, like Kerkering above, he will be costly. Ben Joyce, RHP, Angels Okay, maybe this is the most farfetched option on this list, but the Angels should be listening to offers on Joyce if people are calling. He’s young and an absolute flamethrower, but he has had issues missing bats and dealt with a shoulder injury that required surgery in 2025. His four-seam fastball tops out at 101.1 mph and he’s been electric to watch since his days in college at Tennessee. He’s the type of pitcher that you can bring in and put with a pitching coach like Bailey to tap into something deeper than just winding up and throwing gas, but he can do that with ease when necessary. He's also young and saddled with years of team control, but the Angels have a funky way of doing business. The cost may not be as prohibitive as Joyce's prodigious talents would suggest. Honestly, to settle the spot Hicks left in the bullpen, the Red Sox will likely look inward unless an absolute perfect deal drops into Breslow’s lap. The three names above all offer a ton of upside but come with their own risks, not to mention to cost of trading away even more of an already-depleted farm system. If they could be had for a package around a big leaguer and one or two prospects, then it could be something worth exploring, but Breslow doesn’t need to make a deal just to make a deal right now. With the money Hicks was owed mostly off the books, his focus still needs to be on the infield; the bullpen may just be better off without a direct Hicks replacement right now. View the full article

On February 2, the Toronto Blue Jays announced a major change coming to the exterior of the Rogers Centre. Arguably more important and a longer time coming than any of the recent interior renovations. We're getting a statue! Not just any statue, but one of Joe Carter, commemorating the back-to-back championships of the ‘92 and ‘93 teams. Carter said, via social media: “My teammates from ‘92 and ‘93 are a special group, and we all understood what it meant to play for an entire country. We felt such pride wearing the maple leaf on our uniforms. Fans embraced us, and we loved them right back. This statue is for the fans.” Of course, this isn't the first statue to grace the public space outside of Gates 5 and 6, it's just the first one of a Jays player. In 2013, a bronze statue of Edward “Ted” Rogers was installed. I think it's fair to say that the Rogers statue was met with mixed reviews. A statue like that doesn't appear overnight, so a board of directors and the Rogers family themselves were mostly in favour, I'm sure. On the other hand, in over a decade of its existence, I've never met or overheard a fan that thought it was a good idea. I'm not a total grump though. I can give some credit where it's due. Rogers purchased a majority share of the Jays in September 2000 at a time when the future of the only MLB team north of the border was much less stable than it is today. There's an alternate reality where Rogers doesn't buy the team and someone else moves it south. There's also an actual reality where I don't want to see a 12-foot-tall monument to the guy that represents a monopoly on the excessively-priced cell phone/cable/internet bills we're limited to. The Rogers statue will be moved to a more appropriate location – Rogers corporate headquarters – where I’m sure it will be met with the appropriate amount of celebration. Details are light at this point, which opens the door to rampant speculation. The main question is: What will Joe Carter's look like? The lasting image of Carter’s home run is him in mid-air, leaping up the first base line. Floating statues are tricky, but not impossible; the best sports-related one I can think of is the Bobby Orr statue in Boston. This has to be option number one. A less whimsical statue would probably take either Carter’s batting stance ahead of the pitch or an in-motion swing. The majority of the statues at other major league parks (the Jays are one of the last to install a player statue) commemorating a hitter depict them within the batter’s box. Uninspired, but probably option number two. My dark horse pitch for the statue is the image of Carter up on the shoulders of his teammates, with both arms extended in the air, being carried towards the dugout. Call that option three. We don’t have to limit ourselves to just thinking about the visual element – what about an audio component? This is where I make my official declaration to ask for a push-button installed in the base that just plays the relevant line from Choclair’s "Let’s Ride". We can honour two Toronto icons in one statue! It took until the 50th anniversary of the franchise to get the first commemorative statue, but now that the dam has been breached, who might we see next? My mind is already giddy at the idea of putting a José Bautista statue at the base of the CN Tower with a bat that ‘flips’ its way up and down the tower with the elevators, but despite that moment happening a decade ago, it still feels slightly too recent for the statue treatment. Realistically, the next statue probably comes down to one of two guys. Depending on your era (not to be confused with your ERA), you probably have a favourite Blue Jays workhorse. I’ll hear the cases for both Roy Halladay and Dave Stieb and would be thrilled with either one of them being immortalized next. If I were betting, I’d give Stieb a slight edge, but whichever is next, I’d follow it up with the other as the third statue before looking at another batter. My dark horse for this section is Buck Martinez. I think it’s more likely we see his name on the Level of Excellence next, but a statue of Buck turning a double play with a broken leg? That would look real nice on the concourse somewhere. With the Blue Jays celebrating their 50th year, I hope to hear more announcements like this one. What the statue will look like and what else we might get remain to be seen, but one thing I’m certain of? No one is going to threaten to throw Joe Carter into the lake. View the full article

Needing a boost for the bench and another right-handed bat, the San Diego Padres are bringing in corner infielder/outfielder Miguel Andujar on a one-year, $4 million deal, according to MLB Network insider Jon Heyman and ESPN's Jeff Passan. The deal, reported Thursday, is pending a physical. Andujar, who turns 31 on March 2, will be in the mix as a right-handed bat at first base, a position he only has four MLB starts and seven games at. Three of those appearances at first came in 2025. He would be a platoon option at first with Jake Cronenworth and Gavin Sheets, both left-handed hitters, while also able to spell Ramon Laureano in left field. In 2025, Andujar turned in a solid performance while splitting time with the Athletics and then the Cincinnati Reds as a trade-deadline acquisition. He turned in a combined .318/.352/.470 slash line with 10 homers and 44 RBIs. Andujar, who made $3 million in 2025, was terrific after the trade, posting a .359/.400/.544 slash line, hitting four homers and driving in 17 in 34 games. That was his best offensive year since 2018, his rookie year with the New York Yankees. That year, he manned third base and slashed .297/.328/.527 with 27 homers and 92 RBIs, both still his career-best marks. He finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting to Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels, pulling in five first-place votes. Andujar was particularly effective against left-handed pitchers with a .389/.409/.578 slash line with four homers and 11 RBIs in just 44 plate appearances. His numbers against right-handers weren't too shabby, either, putting up a .290/.331/.429 line with six homers and 33 RBIs. Overall, he had a 5% walk rate and 14.4% strikeout rate. The 94 games played and 341 plate appearances were his most since his rookie season, having battled a variety of injuries over the years, including knee and shoulder surgeries. The Padres were in need of a bench upgrade and Andujar's ability to play multiple positions makes a thin reserve unit much better. View the full article

On Wednesday morning, the Kansas City Royals continued to add to their Cactus League roster by signing infielder Brandon Drury to a Minor League deal with an invitation to Spring Training. Drury is certainly familiar to baseball fans due to his journeyman career. The 33-year-old infielder has played in 867 career games, which include stops in Arizona, the Bronx (Yankees), Toronto, Queens (Mets), Cincinnati, San Diego, and Anaheim (Angels). In 3,159 career plate appearances, he has posted .308 wOBA, 90 wRC+, and 5.4 fWAR. While the former 2010 13th-round pick has certainly seen his fair share of teams, he didn't play in the Majors at all in 2025. Drury played in the White Sox and Angels organizations, but he primarily stayed in Triple-A. In 53 games and 228 plate appearances in Triple-A, he posted a .315 wOBA and 70 wRC+. That included three home runs, 26 runs scored, and 17 RBI. Surprisingly, the infielder actually posted decent Statcast metrics in the Minor Leagues last season, especially in the categories of 90th EV, O-Swing%, and walk rate. That is illustrated in the TJ Stats summary below. Even though Drury ranked in the 19th percentile in wOBA, he actually had a 69th percentile xwOBA, which shows that he might have been a little unlucky in Triple-A last season. Furthermore, Drury sported a patient approach at the plate, which was illustrated not just in his chase (86th percentile), but also in his low swing rate on pitches in the zone (second percentile Z-Swing%). It seemed to pay off for him, as he sported a strong Z-Contact% (73rd percentile) and whiff% (63rd percentile). The Royals have been targeting patient hitters this offseason who minimize swinging outside of the strike zone. Isaac Collins from the Brewers and Lane Thomas from the Guardians fit that profile, as do Minor League signings such as Josh Rojas, Abraham Toro, and Kevin Newman. While Drury had success in 2022 and 2023 (5.8 fWAR combined), he had a -2.1 fWAR in his last MLB season in 2024 and seems to be at the tail end of his career. Not only did he fail to make the White Sox Opening Day roster last year, he was designated for assignment, picked up by the Angels and languished in Salt Lake City (the Angels' Triple-A team). Thus, it's not a surprise that he didn't earn an MLB deal this offseason. He likely will have a hard time making the Royals' Opening Day roster, especially with so much competition in the infield this spring. It is likely that Drury will give the Royals Cactus League roster some at-bats while infielders Maikel Garcia and Bobby Witt Jr. play in the World Baseball Classic for Venezuela and the United States, respectively. Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images View the full article

The fight for control of the San Diego Padres following the death of owner Peter Seidler appears to have concluded after his widow dropped most of the claims against his two brothers, according to multiple reports, including The Athletic and the San Diego Union-Tribune. Sheel Seidler, Peter's widow, had filed a lawsuit in Texas probate court last year, making various claims against Matt and Bob Seidler, who are trustees of their brother's trust. A filing Monday said the sides had an "agreement to resolve the matters between them." Per the filing, Sheel Seidler cannot refile the claims. John Seidler, the oldest brother, assumed the ownership role following Peter's death in November 2023 and is now a trustee. The Seidlers announced in November that it was considering a sale of the team. According to The Athletic, the family is seeking a sale price "well above" the $1.95 billion the team was valued at in March 2025. Rumored to be leading candidates to purchase the Padres are Joe Lacob, owner of the NBA's Golden State Warriors, as well as Dan Friedkin and Jose E. Feliciano, who own English Premier League soccer teams. View the full article

As expected, the Boston Red Sox have done something to add to their infield mix, signing veteran utility man Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a one-year deal. With all due respect to Nate Eaton and Nick Sogard, this is now one of the least inspiring positional battles we've seen in some time. That duo, along with Kiner-Falefa, will compete with incumbent lefty-masher Romy Gonzalez for the starting second base job come Opening Day. It's just a continuation of they keystone carousel the Red Sox have been on since Dustin Pedroia rode off into the sunset, and one that could have been avoided had Kristian Campbell been properly developed in the field. Alas, here we are, with one of that quartet likely to take the majority of reps at second base in 2026. And before anyone suggests Marcelo Mayer sliding back over to the right side of the infield, just know that's not happening. He will be the starting third baseman no matter what — the team made that choice when Alex Bregman walked in free agency. More to come... View the full article

Four of the Twins' top 100 prospects are likely to graduate from their prospect status in 2026 as long as they remain healthy. When that happens, the Twins' farm system will not be as strong as it looks going into the season, which has Jamie and Jeremy stressing how important player development and the 2026 MLB Draft are for the team this year. View the full article

Tom Pohlad has been consistent in one message this winter: He believes the Minnesota Twins will be in contention in 2026. Projection systems have been far less optimistic, and Pohlad has shown little interest in revisiting the organization’s second straight offseason of payroll cuts. Teams with higher payrolls buy margin for error through veteran depth and midseason flexibility. The Twins do not have those luxuries. What they might have, instead, is something harder to quantify and easier to overlook. Underrated players do not make a loud impact in national conversations. They are often hidden behind strikeout totals, injury histories, or the simple crime of playing in medium-sized markets on underachieving teams. Yet, those players can quietly carry a roster when things break right. MLB Network recently ran through its Top 100 Players Right Now, and MLB.com followed that with Anthony Castrovince’s 2026 All Underrated Team. The criteria were strict. No recent major award winners. No former All-Stars. No nine-figure contracts. No young players who are still in their honeymoon phase. What remained was a list of players who consistently help teams win without much recognition. Two Twins landed on that list, and both point toward how this roster might outperform expectations. Ryan Jeffers continues to exist in the strange space where solid production at catcher somehow feels replaceable. Catching is brutal on the body and harder on the bat. League-average offense at the position is valuable, and Jeffers has been better than that. Over the past three seasons, he has been one of only four catchers with at least 335 plate appearances and a league-average or better OPS+ each year. His OPS+ in that stretch sits 13% above league average. The names around him are William Contreras and Will Smith, players who are spoken about very differently. Jeffers is not marketed as a franchise cornerstone. What he does is show up, take quality at-bats, lead the pitching staff, and provide offense from a position where many teams accept far less. The Twins also expect that he will catch 100 games or more this season, his last year under team control. That kind of stability behind the plate has ripple effects through a pitching staff, especially one that relies heavily on command and sequencing. Jeffers being quietly good is exactly the kind of thing projection systems tend to flatten out. Matt Wallner is a more chaotic version of underrated. As MLB.com pointed out, his 2025 stat line does not look normal, and that's because it was not. Forty-one extra-base hits with only 68 total hits is an absurd distribution, something that has barely happened in modern baseball. The easy explanation is that he strikes out too much. The harder truth is that Wallner actually made real progress there, cutting his strikeout rate by more than seven points while maintaining a walk rate in the 84th percentile. The underlying data suggests the power is real. His average bat speed was among the quickest in the league, and he ranked in the 85th percentile in barrel percentage. When he makes contact, it is loud. Injuries have kept him from stacking full seasons, but over the past three years, he has an OPS+ that is 29% better than league average. That is the same neighborhood as James Wood and Pete Alonso over similar stretches. Wallner does not need to become consistent in the way stars are consistent. He just needs to stay on the field and keep doing damage. Beyond those two, the Twins roster has several other players who could be quietly critical if things break right. Here’s one underrated player in each player group (position players, starting pitchers, and relief pitchers). Royce Lewis is no longer a mystery. He is also not what he was at his peak a few seasons ago, as he finished last season with an 85 OPS+. That gap between expectation and recent reality has pushed him into underrated territory. Lewis still has impact tools, and his ability to change a game with one swing or one defensive play remains intact. The question is health and rhythm, not talent. ZiPS projects him to have a 97 OPS+ with a 1.4 fWAR. If he can simply get back to being himself, even at a slightly reduced level, the lineup gains a presence it has sorely lacked. Bailey Ober sits in a similar space on the pitching side. Injuries disrupted his 2025 season and dulled the conversation around him as he ended the year with a 5.10 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. When healthy, Ober has shown he can miss bats, limit walks, and give length. Those are traits that age well and travel well. For 2026, ZiPS projects him to produce 2.0 fWAR with a 102 ERA+. The Twins do not need him to be an ace. They need him to be reliable, to show that last year was an interruption and not a trend. In the bullpen, Cole Sands may be the most interesting name. His stuff has played in a variety of roles, but the late innings are where reputations are made and tested. Sands has the chance to become one of those relievers who perform in high-leverage spots. ZiPS projects him to have a 110 ERA+ with a 23.5 K%. If he proves he can handle save opportunities, the Twins suddenly have an internal solution that would otherwise cost real money. The Twins may not have the payroll cushion Tom Pohlad wishes he could ignore, and projection systems may not see the upside baked into this roster. But baseball seasons are not won on paper. They are won by players who outperform their labels. If enough of these underrated pieces click at the same time, Minnesota’s path to contention may not be as far-fetched as it looks. Do the Twins have other underrated players? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

To the surprise of no one, the Brewers traded away arguably their best pitcher for the third winter in a row. This time, Freddy Peralta was sent to the Mets, with two consensus top-100 prospects returning to Milwaukee. Unlike the previously traded Corbin Burnes and Devin Williams, the Brewers did not sign or draft Peralta as an amateur; they acquired him in a trade. In fact, it was a deal executed by none other than the current New York Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns, who can carve his initials twice on the Freddy Peralta trade tree. The Milwaukee Brewers' Freddy Peralta Era begins with Tyler Walker. On Jan. 28, 2010, the Washington Nationals signed Walker to join their bullpen. Walker had a respectable 3.57 ERA with the Nationals that yea, in what would be his final season in the majors. To make room for Walker on their roster, the Nationals designated Marco Estrada for assignment, and the Brewers claimed him off waivers on February 3. At the time the Brewers acquired Estrada, he had only had a couple of cups of coffee in the big leagues, with a total of 20 innings over two seasons. Baseball America rated Estrada as the Nationals' 18th-best prospect that winter, and the team was coming off a 103-loss season, so it’s a little surprising that they removed a pitcher who had posted 3.63/3.41 ERA/FIP over 136.1 innings in Triple A from their roster. At 6 feet and 180 pounds, Estrada was seen as undersized at the time and had low strikeout numbers in 2009, but it’s hard to imagine that a last-place team wouldn’t find a player like this valuable. The Nationals' mistake would become the Brewers' gain. Estrada missed the majority of 2010 with shoulder fatigue, and the Brewers outrighted him from the 40-man roster, but he returned in 2011 and contributed a strong 92.2 innings in 43 appearances and seven starts. Estrada had a breakout year in 2012, starting 23 games with a 3.64 ERA over 136.1 innings and more than a strikeout per inning. Estrada pitched two more seasons with the organization, giving the team a lot of flexibility by starting 39 games in 60 appearances. On Nov. 1, 2014, the Brewers sent Estrada to the Blue Jays for first baseman Adam Lind. Estrada would go on to pitch with the Blue Jays for four seasons, providing a lot of solid innings and making an All-Star appearance for the club. Adam Lind was the fourth attempt by the Brewers to replace Prince Fielder at first base. He came to Milwaukee following a strong season in Toronto, with a .321/.381/.479 line in 290 plate appearances. Lind was under contract for the 2015 season on a $7.5-milliion deal, with a 2016 team option for $8 million. In what ended up being his only season as a Brewer, Lind hit a respectable .271/.360/.460, with 20 home runs and 2.0 fWAR. Following the season, new Brewers general manager David Stearns picked up Lind’s option, with an eye toward trading him. Just over a month later, Stearns struck a deal with the Seattle Mariners and their notoriously active general manager, Jerry Dipoto. Lind hit another 20 home runs in Seattle during the 2016 season, but his walk rate and BABIP declined sharply. He went from being 20 percent better than the average MLB hitter in 2014 to 7 percent worse than average in his lone season with the Mariners. The Brewers' return for Lind was three teenage pitchers: Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missaki, and Freddy Peralta, with a combined 34.1 innings above rookie ball. Stearns cashed in Lind for three lottery tickets, and one of them hit. Missaki was recovering from Tommy John surgery when the Brewers acquired him; he never pitched for the organization. After nine years away from major-league organizations, including stints in Japan, Latin America and Mexico, he pitched in the Cubs system in 2024 and threw 74 innings with the Rangers' Double-A affiliate last year. Herrera peaked with 85.2 innings in 2018 for the Brewers' Low-A affiliate, and hasn’t pitched in affiliated baseball since 2019. Peralta debuted with the Brewers in 2018, with a memorable one-hit, 13-strikeout performance in front of his parents. He evolved quickly into a fan and clubhouse favorite, and eventually into a true top-of-the-rotation starter. After pitching as both a starter and reliever in his first two seasons, Peralta signed a team-friendly extension in February 2020, which allowed the team to extend their contractual control through the upcoming 2026 season and (ultimately) to trade him this winter. In parts of eight seasons with the Brewers, Peralta accrued 17.8 fWAR, throwing 931 innings with 70 wins, 1,153 strikeouts and a 3.59 ERA. The Freddy Peralta trade tree will continue to grow, through the contributions of Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams. Sproat will likely compete for a rotation spot with the Brewers immediately. The 56th overall pick in the second round of the 2023 MLB Draft threw 141.2 total innings in 2025, including 20 with the Mets. Williams likely needs more time in Triple A to refine his skills with the bat and in the field. His strong approach at the plate and defensive versatility should set the floor for him as a valuable utility player capable of handling all three up-the-middle positions in the field. The Brewers have had consistency and stability in their front office for most of this century. Doug Melvin was the general manager when Estrada was acquired. Melvin stayed with the team when Stearns was brought in to lead the baseball operations department, and one of Stearns's first hires was Matt Arnold, the current president of baseball operations. All three executives completed key moves, to draw the line from Estrada to Sproat and Williams. It’s possible that contributions from the two new Brewers (or a new branch added in the future) will lead to a name change, but for the foreseeable future, this is the Freddy Peralta trade tree. For something that grew from the seed of a late-winter waiver claim, it's a mighty oak. Estrada, Lind and Peralta have combined to give the team 21.6 wins above replacement (WAR), according to Baseball Reference. That's value created by extremely low-cost risk-taking, like claiming Estrada in the first place and extending Peralta, rather than by using vital resources like first-round picks or young talent. In Williams and Sproat, they now have two players who could generate a similar amount of value for them in the decade to come. It's a great reminder of the value of savvy scouting, player development, and deft transactions. View the full article

There are few jobs in baseball more thankless than working in a communications department during organizational chaos. The Minnesota Twins have managed to turn that chaos into a full-time endurance sport, and the team’s PR staff has been running wind sprints since last summer, with no hydration break in sight. According to sources inside the organization, the communications department spent weeks training for last season’s trade deadline sell-off. This was not metaphorical training. This was real preparation. Long nights. Cold coffee. A shared Google Doc titled “Just In Case.” While the rest of baseball enjoyed the All-Star Break, the Twins PR staff sat hunched over laptops trying to pre-write press releases for half the roster. “We treated it like spring training,” said Twins Communication Czar Dustin Morse, according to one internal email accidentally forwarded to everyone. “You stretch. You prepare. You hope no one pulls a hamstring while being traded for a Low-A reliever.” The signs were everywhere: phones buzzing; executives whispering; and that familiar feeling that something big was coming, but no one knew exactly what. By the time the deadline arrived, the communications team had drafts ready for players who were traded, players who were rumored to be traded, and players who simply felt tradable in spirit. Then came the pivot. Just as the PR staff had emotionally committed to the sell-off era, ownership shifted gears. The Pohlad group went from selling the entire franchise to selling minority shares, and suddenly, the communications department had to find positives in continuity. This proved tricky, after weeks of preparing statements that included phrases like “as part of a long-term retool” and “we thank him for his contributions during a challenging season.” One unnamed staffer described the whiplash. “We had to delete the word 'rebuild' from seventeen different drafts and replace it with 'strategic flexibility'," the source said. "I do not know what 'strategic flexibility' means anymore, but I can type it very fast.” There was at least one moment of relief. When Rocco Baldelli was fired, the PR spin was easy. The Twins famously keep a pre-written Word document labeled: “Manager Firing Final Final Use This One.” Despite there being only three managers fired in recent memory—Ron Gardenhire, Paul Molitor, and Baldelli—the document remains a cherished artifact, lovingly updated every few years like a family recipe. “That one was plug and play,” said another source. “Change the name. Change the year. Add a line about gratitude and culture. Done.” This week’s news of Derek Falvey parting ways with the front office was a different beast entirely. No leaks. No whispers. No helpful heads-up to allow the communications department to prepare emotionally or grammatically. Falvey had been the public voice of the franchise, even appearing at TwinsFest days earlier, calmly explaining plans that were apparently already being archived. The PR team went into high gear, tasked with making it seem as if the franchise was not quietly unraveling at the seams. Adjectives were debated. Verbs were scrutinized. 'Mutual' was workshopped for nearly an hour. “'Mutual' is doing a lot of heavy lifting,” another source admitted. “We stared at that word like it might blink first.” In the end, the release went out. Calm. Professional. Carefully constructed to suggest stability, vision, and intentionality. Inside the communications department, several people reportedly stared at the wall afterward, wondering how many more drafts they could delete before muscle memory took over completely. The conclusion is unavoidable. While players come and go, and executives rotate through press conferences, the true iron men of the Minnesota Twins may be the communications staff. They are always ready. Always rewriting. Always finding optimism in the margins. Somewhere in Target Field, a new folder has already been created. It is simply titled “Next One.” View the full article

If the Cubs want a pitcher with a chance to be a frontline starter throughout 2026, they still have two solid options in free agency: Zac Gallen and Framber Valdez. Not coincidentally, the team has been mentioned in connection with each hurler over the last fortnight, and North Side Baseball can confirm that they've had sustained interest in Gallen—though not, so far, at anywhere near the terms Scott Boras has demanded for the erstwhile Diamondbacks ace. Both Gallen and Valdez would cost the Cubs a draft pick, though, because each is attached to compensation via the qualifying offer. Gallen and Valdez turned down $22.025 million from their former clubs in November, guaranteeing those teams compensatory picks if they leave. More importantly, each has spent at least a half-decade as a full-time starter, with no meaningful experience in the bullpen. They would contribute to the logjam in the team's starting rotation, and it's unlikely that either (especially on the kinds of short-term deals to which the Cubs would be open to signing them) would be happy with any role that lessened their importance, the volume of innings they could pitch, or (therefore) their earning power. It might be easier to work with Chris Bassitt, Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer, who are all in the twilight of their careers but have been very good when available. They'd be easier to stash on the injured list for stretches when the entire rotation is healthy, and Bassitt showed that he can be a weapon out of the bullpen when Toronto moved him there last fall. However, it's harder to be sure that any of them (especially the quadragenarians, Verlander and Scherzer) would be available at all when the team needs them most, in the autumn. One player could suit the Cubs' needs perfectly, and would be another way for the team to strengthen its relationship with Boras, too. Nick Martinez had a superficially poor season with the Reds in 2025, with a 4.45 ERA in 40 appearances. However, he's arguably the game's best old-fashioned swingman. He made 26 starts and 14 relief appearances in 2025, and has 61 starts out of 192 games pitched since the start of 2022. He's been exceptionally durable in a role that often comes with added injury risk, and shows the ability to turn over lineup cards as well as being a matchup weapon in the right situations. Martinez's skill set is distinct from that of Colin Rea. He's more akin to Javier Assad, with a high arm slot and extremely kinetic delivery that yields a diverse pitch mix and masks underwhelming raw stuff. Assad can still be optioned to Triple-A Iowa, so Martinez could contribute as a starter when needed; give the bullpen a long man and a solid middle-relief buttress when the rotation is fully stocked; and add to the variety of looks Craig Counsell can offer opposing lineups. The step back in his raw numbers last season had some bad luck mixed into it. Martinez's stuff is not exceptional, but he throws a four-seamer, a sinker, a cutter, a gyro slider, a good curveball and an interesting changeup. He can get lefties out, and though he struggled against fellow righties last year, he's likely to rebound on that front in 2026. Best of all, he wouldn't cost a draft pick, and is likely to sign for less on an annual basis than any of the other five free agents named above. The Cubs could add him to their staff, feel supremely confident about their depth, and still have money to spend (be it now or at the trade deadline) to round out their roster. Once camp opens next Wednesday, the team can place Justin Steele on the 60-day injured list. That would sideline him until at least Memorial Day, but (despite Steele's protestations and the team's steady optimism) no responsible plan would put him back on a big-league mound before June, anyway. He's just as likely to run into a hiccup or two and return near the end of July. Martinez could sign next week, take the roster spot created by Steele's shift to the 60-day IL, and become Rea's partner at the fluid back end of a very strong, deep rotation. These same characteristics make Martinez appealing to many other clubs, too, and he's likely to wait until Gallen and/or Valdez sign to see where demand is greatest before signing his own deal. The Cubs can afford to wait. Unless the price craters completely on one of Gallen or Valdez, they should bide their time and sign Martinez, instead, once the dust settles from the final true sweepstakes of his hot stove season. View the full article

There is still much we don’t know about the specific events that led to the Twins and Derek Falvey parting ways. One thing we do know, though, is that Falvey was set up to fail in three key ways. That makes it easy to see why he wanted out, and perhaps why he chose not to let another losing season be hung around his neck as he seeks his next, greener pasture. The Correa Signing The first way in which ownership misled Falvey was Joe Pohlad’s green-lighting of Carlos Correa’s second signing. To be clear, the approval itself was sound, and theoretically, it was a great move. A good owner, when sensing that his team’s window of contention is wide-open and that the team is one big splash away from having a chance at a deep playoff run, should approve signing a superstar. After the signing, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported the following: “While he didn’t mention a specific number, Pohlad didn’t hesitate to suggest the Twins could increase payroll significantly if everything was properly aligned ... Would something like $180-200 million be out of the question? “I think that there are a number of factors that you need to consider,” Pohlad said. “Where your team is, where your division is, where your business is at. And I don’t think something like that is ever out of the question. I really don’t.” Fast-forward eight months, and you know the rest. A good owner should not approve a signing like the Correa if he knows it will reduce the ability to add supplemental pieces, or worse, to slash payroll by nearly 20% the following season—then again, and again for good measure. One might choose to be charitable, and argue that perhaps Pohlad didn’t know that the family would be “losing” significant money. That's a watery defense, though. An owner's imprimatur on a signing should signal a commitment to the spending required to justify it, which means either knowing for sure that it won't limit the team, or being willing to stretch and accept the pain when it comes. Either way, allowing Falvey to take on a $200-million contract and then slashing payroll eliminated Falvey’s ability to sign quality depth pieces that would insulate the team against injuries, player regression, or the failure of prospects to develop into quality regulars. In short, the Pohlads forced Falvey to immediately thread a needle if he wanted to succeed. Ownership Communication and Decision-Making The second way the Pohlads made Falvey’s job harder is through their public-facing ineptitude. Whether it was Joe’s ill-advised “rightsizing the payroll” comment immediately following the first playoff success in 20 years, or his comments following the 2025 trade deadline firesale, ownership hung the front office out to dry. “I’m confident because we have got all the right pieces, and we have the resources we’re ready to invest when needed," he said in July. "The goal is not to compete. The goal is to win a World Series.” That’s just so out of touch with the reality of the situation, and unfortunately for Falvey, it makes it appear as if he’s the one choosing not to improve the team. One can also point to the travails of watching Twins games on TV as the RSN model died its slow and ugly death, and the public promise they allowed Cory Provus to give (on the record) that there would be no more blackouts—after which they chose to re-up with the same bankrupt organization that was preventing fans from watching. That created a feedback loop of frustration among fans that led many to tune out. Of course, with his promotion, Falvey had to try to figure out how to pick up the pieces. This is just one example of ownership hurting their own earning power, which led to the reductions in payroll. Then, of course, there was the sale that wasn’t, leading to Falvey stating as late as December's Winter Meetings that he still wasn’t sure what he would be allowed to do this offseason, at a time when other teams were deep in their planning processes—and, indeed, executing those plans. Unrealistic, And Constantly Changing Expectations The final, perhaps irreconcilable way that the Pohlads made Falvey’s job impossible was to issue mutually exclusive, diametrically opposed dictates. The first: to win, despite needing four good bullpen arms, a backup catcher, and at least two above-average hitters. The second: do this for, say, $20 million in offseason spending, leaving the team with one of baseball's smallest payrolls. They issued this unfunded mandate, by the way, after Falvey had already made the sensible choice to rebuild at the deadline last season, based on the financial constraints placed on him and the underperformance of the core. That came after the whiplash Falvey had received from ownership pivots over the prior two years. It has looked something like this: 2023: Go all in! Sign Correa! Break the curse! There’s more money where this came from! 2024: So close…but you gotta cut payroll. By a lot. Hopefully it’ll be fine. You'll figure it out. Also, why are fans mad? 2025: Keep cutting. It’s a good core, we can still do this. Actually, the team isn’t quite performing… You know what? Maybe let’s actually burn it down. Seriously, why are fans mad? It’s a nice ballpark. 2026: Oh, fans are mad because they want to win. Ok. We aren’t rebuilding. You better win. Also, there’s no money. Trust me, payroll doesn’t matter. Vibes matter. Falvey acted the politician throughout his Twins tenure, to the point that he consistently took heat for decisions that weren’t, strictly speaking, his. I’m sure signing Ty France to play first base in 2025 was not his first, or even second, choice. I’m sure he would have preferred not to eliminate the 2025 bullpen at the deadline. This is, after all, the guy who was in tears following the 2024 season because of how upset he was that the team failed down the stretch. There was never an indication that he didn’t want to field a great team, but he was handcuffed at every point since the 2023 playoffs ended. However, the fact that he consistently chose to carry water reflected an accurate understanding of the reality he was living. Ownership found themselves in significant debt, however it was accrued; he had a good relationship with his bosses; and he liked the role he was in. So, he dealt with it and made the best of it. When the boss with whom he'd had a good relationship was replaced by an intransigent dilettante, he realized that he no longer liked the role as much as he once had. The debt is being reduced or eliminated, but Falvey realized that wouldn't matter if he was to be overseen by a similarly miserly but less engaged and less flexible Pohlad sibling. I can’t say I blame him. View the full article

Like it or not, when it comes to NL West predictions in the era of the Death Star Dodgers, the highest every other team in the division hopes to be is second place. And with spring training less than two weeks away, various outlets are coming out with early predictions or projections for how the NL West will shake out. One of those was FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski, the mastermind behind the widely respected ZiPS projections. After doing team-by-team projections (you can read Padres Mission's review of that) over the last few months, Szymborski used updated rosters and projections to come up with division-by-division standings. As expected, when it came to the West, the two-time defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers were the clear-cut best team in baseball. By running "a million simulations," Szymborski's projection gave the Dodgers a 96-66 record. Again, not surprising. So, where did the San Diego Padres fit in? ZiPS has the Friars finishing third at 83-79, just a game behind the second-place San Francisco Giants at 84-78. Unfortunately, Szymborski doesn't spend much time analyzing why the Padres will finish in this spot, only alluding to the fragility of the starting rotation should injuries take a bite out of the staff. With the Arizona Diamondbacks projected for an 81-81 mark, it figures to be a three-way battle for second place. The Colorado Rockies bring up the rear at 61-101, following up on the worst record in MLB in 2025 with the worst projected record of 2026. Padres fans shouldn't be too surprised at any of this, knowing the rotation is thin and the depth of the position players is shaky. When it comes to making the playoffs, which is always the true goal of the regular season, the Padres have a 10% chance of winning the division and a 41.9% shot at an NL wild card. The Giants are at 14.6% for the division and 35.5% for a wild card, while the D'backs are at 6.5% and 25%. Surprisingly, the Friars had a better projection when it came to winning the World Series than the Giants. The Padres won the championship 2.8% of the time, with the D'backs next at 2% and the Giants at 1.6%. Of course, that all pales in comparison to the Dodgers, whose numbers pop off the page. L.A. checked in at winning the West 68.9% of the time, a whopping 22.3 percentage points ahead of the Seattle Mariners, who won the AL West 46.6% of the time. The Dodgers settled for a wild card at a 22.8% clip. Szymborski said of Los Angeles: "The Dodgers are still the class of the division, but their invincibility has been vastly overrated." Isn't that what the theory about the Death Star was, too? View the full article

The Brewers have enjoyed the fruits of a heist since Opening Day 2023. Through a brilliant move, they secured the long-term services of William Contreras, plus the useful Joel Payamps, for the price of Esteury Ruiz, who’s since been dealt to two other teams. Will catcher still be a strength in 2026? 2025 Review Contreras held down the fort again in 2025, playing through a broken finger. It cost him somewhat at the plate and in terms of WAR (he dropped from 4.9 WAR in 2024 to 3.9 in 2025), but he was still a borderline All-Star-caliber player. That didn’t leave much for backups Eric Haase and Danny Jansen to do, although both contributed by allowing Contreras to serve as the DH on occasion. Current Roster Situation At the start of February, the Brewers have Contreras and former Top 100 prospect Jeferson Quero on the 40-man roster. Contreras figures to be the starter, though barring a financial miracle, his days at Uecker Field are probably numbered. The big question is who takes the No. 2 spot. Backup catchers in Milwaukee haven’t had much to do at times, but it never hurts to have quality when it's needed. Quero could be an option even by Opening Day, and has been the Brewers' catcher of the future for the last few years. The theory behind him as the backup to Contreras would be that he could spend 2026 acclimating to MLB pitching and easing in as the eventual starter. However, he’s still coming off two injury-riddled seasons and may need to play every day, and that can only happen in Triple-A Nashville, given Contreras’s presence. Anthony Seigler is also on the 40-man roster and played 22 games at catcher in Nashville last season, but he's more of a utility man and emergency backstop. Then we turn to various non-roster invitees. Veteran Reese McGuire was signed as a free agent, and received an invitation to spring training. He's the co-favorite (alongside Quero) to be the backup come late March. Ramon Rodriguez had only 81 at-bats in a 2025 season lost to injury. Darrien Miller has been in the organization for a long time, and his OBP skills are strong. Matthew Wood has looked solid, despite being overshadowed by Quero and Marco Dinges. Wood and Miller are both only 24, though neither will be more than a second-tier backup in the majors. Best-Case Scenario for 2026 The best-case scenario for the Brewers is for Contreras to pick up about 120 starts behind the plate and another 30 or so at designated hitter, with one of the NRIs taking the backup job, allowing Quero a full season at Nashville to give the Brewers an idea of what he will look like at maturity. McGuire and Miller would be the top contenders, with McGuire holding the obvious edge. If Contreras posts something akin to his 2024 numbers, the Brewers could then get a major haul to recharge their farm system. Worst-Case Scenario for 2026 Contreras has a lengthy stay on the injured list, and Jeferson Quero struggles as his fill-in. The Brewers were lucky that Contreras was able to power through and deliver above-average offense (111 OPS+) even in an injury-diminished campaign. If they are unlucky this time around, the catcher position goes from a strength to a question mark in 2026, and it will also affect the return the Brewers receive in the likely event Contreras is traded in the 2026-2027 offseason. Overview There are a number of ways for the catcher spot to go wrong for Milwaukee. Contreras could be injured. The Brewers could end up with Quero sitting on the bench a lot in Milwaukee, because nobody else seizes the backup catcher slot. Catcher can also go right in multiple ways, including Quero delivering average to above-average offense and forcing his way into playing time in Milwaukee. The interesting discussion in Arizona will be who backs up the big guy, but the outcomes for this season all hinge on Contreras himself. View the full article

With Gavin Sheets (mostly officially) set to take over as the San Diego Padres' starting first baseman for 2026, it appears that one of their two remaining lineup questions has been answered. The other, however, remains an unsolved riddle. Once the Padres exercised Ramón Laureano's club option, they settled seven of their nine positions in the lineup. Only first base and designated hitter were left to determine. With the news that Sheets will get the first run at the former, how the team will approach the latter now becomes a matter of some conjecture. Now on the cusp of pitchers and catchers reporting to Arizona, two paths lie before them. For one, there's a chance the Padres attempt to fill the position completely internally. Given how quiet things have been on the transactional front, this one would appear to be the most likely. It's also the most complex. At one point this winter, it might've been worthwhile for the team to consider deploying Luis Campusano as part of a regular DH rotation. His upside lives almost exclusively in his bat and, in the absence of other options, it appeared that he finally had a path to regular plate appearances. That could have even extended to a platoon, of sorts, with Sheets. With the latter now assumed to be getting regular field work, that idea dissolves. To say nothing of the fact that Campusano still projects to be the team's backup catcher. That's a guy more likely to start on the bench rather than elsewhere considering the logistical nightmare wrought by something happening to Freddy Fermin mid-game. With that idea out, the first path is paved for Craig Stammen to rotate someone new in depending on matchups and a desire to create partial off-days. Sung Mun Song's presence certainly helps in this regard. He can play any of second base, shortstop, or third, and the team plans to get him some additional run at first and in the outfield. Such utility could be used heavily to their advantage in getting veterans off their feet in the field on occasion. This is particularly true for Manny Machado, whose body has been through plenty of tribulations and who features declining defensive metrics. The same could be true of the outfield, where Bryce Johnson presents at least a stable glove in the event that Stammen wanted to give Fernando Tatis Jr. or Jackson Merrill a bit of a blow on a given day. There is a way to execute such a plan in a way that doesn't alter the lineup too much on a daily basis, as well. If it's Song, for example, rotating primarily through the group, then you hold his spot and simply rotate positions on an as-needed basis. It's still a good deal of roster juggling, but could allow the Padres to give their most important bats more frequent rest, at least on a halfway basis. The alternative to the expected route is to pursue a bat from outside the organization. This might be someone like Rhys Hoskins or Miguel Andujar on the free-agent market. Hoskins has become nearly unplayable in the field while Andujar at least has some versatility in a bat that bounced back in 2025. If the Philadelphia Phillies were willing to eat enough money, Nick Castellanos could be a somewhat realistic option, too. Such a route has appeal in the form of an additional bat for a team that probably needs more supplemental offense. Considering we don't know where the team's financial expectations are at this stage of the winter, however, it's also a much more difficult route to see to fruition than the expected one. With the clarity arriving on Sheets' role, though, there's an opportunity for the Padres to pursue the same on the designated hitter front. Even with the team appearing content to run things out with the status quo, it remains difficult to underestimate A.J. Preller's willingness to do anything he can to improve the roster. With the window to do so waning, we should see the same level of clarity emerge at DH in the coming weeks. View the full article

Minnesota Twins ace Joe Ryan turns 30 years old this year. While father time may not be knocking on his door yet, talks of regression and constant adjustments begin on the other side of 30 years old. What if we told you he's already planning for that, and he's only getting better with age? In this video, we discuss his varied pitch arsenal, attack on opposing hitters' launch angle and his knack for location that should bode well for him well into his 30s.View the full article

Outfielder Jordyn Adams, who has 38 games of MLB experience over the last three seasons, has signed a minor-league contract with the Milwaukee Brewers, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The deal likely includes an invite to spring training, which begins next week. Adams, who plays center and right field, was the No. 17 overall pick in the 2018 draft out of a North Carolina high school. At the same time, Adams had committed to play football at North Carolina as he was a four-star wide receiver recruit. He chose a pro baseball career over football, receiving a $3,472,900 signing bonus from the Angels. While not possessing terrific power, having topped out at 15 homers in the minors in 2023, he does have speed, swiping 44 bags also in 2023, all at Triple-A. That was the same year he made his MLB debut, coming up Aug. 1. In two MLB stints, he played in 17 games, putting up a .128/.125/.128 slash line in 40 plate appearances. He had another cup of coffee with the Angels in 2024, but again struggled offensively with a slash line of .229/.289/.314 in 38 plate appearances over 11 games. He was designated for assignment that offseason, but was quickly picked up by the Baltimore Orioles for the 2025 season. He again got a small amount of MLB action, going hitless in five plate appearances over 10 games. In seven minor-league seasons, Adams has a .247/.328/.377 slash line with 52 homers, 288 RBIs, and 158 steals in 195 chances. One major drawback is that he does strike out quite a bit, with 758 in 2,738 plate appearances in the minors, a whopping 27.7% of the time. It would be hard-pressed for Adams to crack the Brewers' Opening Day lineup, but he would be a solid depth piece at Triple-A Nashville. He is the latest player to join the non-roster invitees to spring training. View the full article

According to Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Toronto Blue Jays are one of "several teams" interested in free agent left-hander Framber Valdez. Valdez, 32, has been one of the most consistent frontline starters in the league over the past six years, with a 3.23 ERA and an MLB-leading 73 wins since 2020. His 973 innings rank fifth among pitchers, while his 20.3 FanGraphs WAR ranks sixth. Without a doubt, Valdez is the top free agent left unsigned. There is no question that Valdez would make the Blue Jays better. Indeed, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reported earlier this year that the Jays met with the southpaw at the GM Meetings in November, but that was before they signed Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract. They later signed Cody Ponce, creating a logjam in the rotation we've all been talking about ever since. Presumably, Toronto's renewed interest in Valdez indicates that his asking price has dropped substantially. With a week to go before pitchers and catchers report to spring training, it's hard to believe he'll still be able to command the five-year, $150 million deal DiamondCentric expected him to sign earlier this winter. The Blue Jays might not really have room for Valdez, and he clearly wasn't their top priority, but if his price is low enough, Ross Atkins and John Schneider can figure out how to make it work. Valdez may be on the wrong side of 30, and the character concerns are well-founded, but he's also a multi-time All-Star with significant postseason experience. If this front office was willing to give Kyle Tucker a 10-year contract, there is surely a number at which they'd pull the trigger on Valdez. View the full article

Garrett Mitchell is the epitome of a tantalising baseball player. With incredible athleticism, a feel for the big moments, and raw power to all fields, there is very little he couldn't achieve on the baseball field. To answer some under-the-hood concerns with his swing path (centered around conquering the high fastball), Mitchell made some changes in the 2024-25 offseason, with the goal of a more rounded, consistent profile and the ability to make better contact across the strike zone. I covered some of the changes he needed to make here in November 2024—soon after which we saw a video of Mitchell from Driveline. There, he worked on creating a flatter plane to the ball, staying tight and working behind the ball. It seems he didn't lose any of his pop in doing so: How Did He Handle The High Fastball In 2025? It's important to remember this is a very small sample—just a month's at-bats—but there were some notable changes in his whiff rates from 2024 compared to the 2025 season, especially in the upper third of the strike zone: Let's restrict our focus to four-seam fastballs only, and include just the middle and upper portions of the strike zone, to see how Mitchell fared. Again, this is a small sample due to Mitchell's season-derailing injuries, but the changes are significant. Mitchell's quality and quantity of contact against four-seam fastballs soared in this small sample of 25 qualified offerings, with an improved attack angle in his swing bearing proof of a changing process. His exit velocities were up, his whiff rates were way down, and his expected batting average and slugging metrics showcased his output well. If we limit this sample to just the top of the strike zone (again, an even smaller size), Mitchell's whiff rate dropped from 48% to 33%, with an average exit velocity of 95.0 mph. If we include sinkers and cutters in these locations to increase the sample size, the same story repeats itself: Mitchell is whiffing less and finding better launch angles, thanks to improved attack angles in his swing. With Mitchell's keen eye at the plate, he doesn't need to do damage on pitches in the upper third of the zone; he just needs to be able to make contact and stay in an at-bat. He made real strides here in 2025, and it should hold him in good stead for 2026, if he can maintain that new swing path after another shoulder surgery last summer. The Timing Trade-Off This was a large change to Mitchell's swing—the type of change that's been the downfall of many others with swing-and-miss concerns (see: Joey Wiemer). While working in cages and at Driveline was beneficial to bed in his adjusted swing path, it's likely that his focus on breaking and off-speed pitches took a back seat. Mitchell was still adjusting to his timing on non-fastballs as spring training rolled around and continued in season, which reduced some of the damage we've become accustomed to. While Mitchell did struggle with high fastballs in 2024, you threw breaking pitches inside the strike zone at your peril. Thankfully, nobody warned Phil Maton about that: Interestingly, this is where Mitchell took a step back. With the majority of his off-season work centered around the high fastball, Mitchell struggled to time up anything off-speed. Only three of his 13 batted balls against breaking pitches inside the strike zone had a launch angle between 0° and 30°, and not one was between 5° and 25°. He was late getting to pitches, but this appears more of a timing issue than a mechanical one. His attack angle was largely similar to his production in 2024, and his hard-hit rate was still quite productive; he just wasn't catching these offerings out in front of him with the same regularity. Mitchell's timing should have improved with playing time, a boon painfully removed from his 2025 season in May, but all the indicators are there for Mitchell, if he can just stay on the field, to break out in a big way during 2026. His bat speed was higher. He was making contact with high fastballs, and punishing those that missed over the heart of the plate. We saw those under-the-hood developments from Mitchell that we've been itching for, even though the surface results didn't quite match up to those indices. If he can stay on the field, Mitchell's ceiling is still as high as anyone on this team. View the full article

The Royals' farm system remains a work in progress, ranking in the lower half of the league according to most publications and prospect analysts. That said, it's come a long way since JJ Picollo took over as President of Baseball Operations in 2023. With the help of Brian Bridges, the Royals' Scouting Director, and Daniel Guerrero, who leads International Scouting, the Royals have added a lot of talent who could make the farm system even more prestigious in 2026. When it comes to top prospects, I wrote about 20 who could have a major impact on the Royals' farm system or Major League squad in some capacity next season and beyond. However, there are many other prospects in the Kansas City organization worth watching, even if they are not on the Royals Keep list. In this post, I am going to highlight five pitching prospects who may not be getting much "prospect hype" but could make serious progress in the Minor Leagues this season. I consider these five "sleeper" pitching prospects and will identify them from different levels of the Royals' farm system. There will also be a companion post highlighting five "sleeper" position player prospects for 2026. Any graphics or tables are courtesy of TJ Stats. Eric Cerantola, RHP (Projected Starting Level: Triple-A) The Royals added Cerantola to the 40-man roster last offseason after posting a 2.97 ERA and 31.4% K rate in 72.2 IP with the Northwest Arkansas Naturals (Double-A) and Omaha Storm Chasers in Triple-A. The 2021 5th round pick primarily pitched in Triple-A last year and made 38 appearances and pitched 49 innings. In that sample, he saw his ERA rise to 4.04 and his K rate drop to 29.6%. Even though he didn't see any time with the Major League squad in 2025, Cerantola made some promising progress that could hint at his readiness for a MLB debut in 2026. While his ERA was higher last year than in 2024, his 3.64 FIP was actually better than the 5.38 FIP he posted in Omaha in 14.1 IP. He also lowered his HR/FB rate from 13.6% in 2024 (with NWA and Omaha) to 7.8% with the Storm Chasers last year. Considering Omaha is considered the fifth most hitter-friendly ballpark in Triple-A, according to park factors, this kind of ability to minimize the long ball was an impressive feat. In addition, he still struck out batters in bunches (29.6% K rate) while still maintaining decent control (18.3% K-BB%). The zone rate was pretty erratic, but he still was able to generate plenty of chases and whiffs last season, according to TJ Stats. Cerantola posted a 28% chase rate, which was around league average. That said, he had a strong 37.2% whiff rate and a slightly above-average xwOBACON of .330. Those are promising signs that Cerantola developed a better feel for his pitches out of the bullpen in Triple-A last season. The only issue is that Cerantola's pitches didn't profile well on a TJ Stuff+ end. His slider, his primary pitch, which he threw 53% of the time, was an above-average offering with a 104 TJ Stuff+ and 51.2% whiff rate. However, his four-seamer was mediocre, to put it nicely. It had an 85 TJ Stuff+ and 18.5% whiff rate, both poor marks. For Cerantola to solidify a spot in the Royals' bullpen in 2026, developing his changeup should be a key priority. Even though he threw it only 1.0% of the time, it still had a 33.3% whiff rate. Making the changeup a bigger part of his arsenal could help him lessen his four-seam usage and thus make him a more effective reliever overall who could be better prepared for Major League hitters. Dennis Colleran, RHP (Projected Starting Level: Double-A) Colleran mostly pitched in Low-A Columbia and High-A Quad Cities a season ago. He started the season with the Fireflies, posting a 4.06 ERA, 3.31 FIP, and 29.8% K rate in 31 IP. However, it was his tenure with the River Bandits that got prospect analysts to pay closer attention to him. In 21 outings and 34.1 IP in the Midwest League, he posted a 1.69 ERA, a 25% K rate, a 14.4% K-BB%, and 0.82 WHIP. What made Colleran such an effective reliever for Quad Cities was not just his ability to limit runners on the basepaths (via base hit or walk), but his propensity to induce hitters to keep the ball on the ground (43% groundball rate) and in the yard (9.4% HR/FB rate). A seventh-round pick in the 2024 MLB Draft by the Royals, Colleran showcased some solid command in Quad Cities, resulting in some impressive strike metrics. He posted a 48.5% F-Strike%, an 11.4% Swinging Strike rate, and 28.6% CSW. While those aren't elite by any measure, they are still impressive and encouraging, especially combined with his groundball rates. The former Northeastern product pitched in Surprise in the Arizona Fall League and held his own over 7.2 IP, as seen below in his TJ Stats summary. Colleran posted a 1.17 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, and 28.6% K-BB% with the Surprise Saguaros. His FIP was a little higher at 3.54, but that's still a solid number, especially considering the small sample. Like his time with Quad Cities, Colleran's ability to limit productive contact was on full display in Arizona, as illustrated by his .262 xwOBACON. The TJ Stuff+ metrics this fall were mixed. In addition to a 97 overall mark, his sinker had a 91 TJ Stuff+, and his four-seamer had a 92 TJ Stuff+, both below average. That said, both pitches still succeeded in different ways. His sinker only allowed a .140 xwOBACON, and his four-seamer induced a 30% whiff. His cutter also had a 102 TJ Stuff+, and his slider had a 103 TJ Stuff+, showing that he has plus pitches in his arsenal. Hence, if Colleran can be successful in specific ways with his fastball pitches, he may be able to get better results with those pitches long-term than his stuff metrics would indicate. Colleran received a non-roster invite to Major League camp this spring. While he is a long shot to make the team out of camp, he could impress the Royals coaching staff and leverage that Spring Training experience into a successful Minor League campaign in 2026. A.J. Causey, RHP (Projected Starting Level: Double-A) Causey was another 2024 Royals Draft pick (5th round) who pitched with Colleran in Quad Cities and in Surprise in the AFL. However, the former Tennessee product eventually matriculated to Northwest Arkansas, where he saw far more innings (33 IP) than Colleran (1.0 IP). In 48 appearances and 73.1 IP with the River Bandits and Naturals, Causey posted a 1.72 ERA, 2.28 FIP, 0.90 WHIP, 26.5% K rate, and 20.5% K-BB%. He was particularly effective in Double-A ball, posting a 1.91 ERA, 2.39 FIP, and 18.9% K rate in 33 IP with the Naturals. Like Colleran, the atypical-throwing righty (15-degree average arm angle) earned an invite to the AFL this past fall. Unfortunately, the stats weren't as sterling as his draft classmate, as seen below. In 9.2 IP, Causey posted a 7.45 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. However, his FIP was much better at 4.39, and he struck out hitters in bunches (29.5% K rate) while limiting free passes on the basepaths (27.3% K-BB%). He also sported excellent chase (31.6%) and whiff rates (38.7%), as well as a decent xwOBACON. The main issue with Causey in the AFL was that he maybe threw TOO MANY strikes in hittable parts of the zone and hitters made him pay, especially since most of his repertoire rates as below average on a TJ Stuff+ end (91 overall). His curve may arguably be the best pitch in the Royals' farm system (106 TJ Stuff+; 62.5% whiff rate in AFL). Unfortunately, his slider was the only other pitch that had a TJ Stuff+ over 92. Causey will get some time in Major League camp this spring, which will be good exposure for him when it comes to getting tutelage from pitching coaches Brian Sweeney and Mike McFerran. Hopefully, they can help him make some tweaks to his pitches, especially his fastball offerings, which can help him be more effective as he climbs up the ladder in the Kansas City farm system. Hiro Wyatt, RHP (Projected Starting Level: High-A) A third-round pick in the 2023 MLB Draft out of Connecticut, Wyatt was seen as a bit of a sleeper pitching prospect last year after posting a 2.67 ERA in 27 IP in Low-A Columbia in 2024. As expected, he started the year again with the Fireflies. Unfortunately, the results weren't as impressive. At 20, he posted a 4.78 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 22.3% K rate, and 14% K-BB% in 21 outings (20 starts) and 79 IP. His FIP was slightly better at 4.47, but some prospect analysts felt that Wyatt, selected as a bit of a project in the 2023 MLB Draft, didn't make expected progress after a solid Low-A debut in 2024. While his numbers didn't blow fans or experts away, there is still a lot to be hopeful about with Wyatt in 2026. Wyatt didn't generate a whole lot of whiffs in 2025 (8.4% SwStr%). However, he still did a good job generating strikes overall, as illustrated by 47% F-Strike%, 17.6% Called Strike rate, and 26.1% CSW. He also kept the ball on the ground effectively, inducing a GB% of 47.1%. Lastly, his HR/FB% wasn't exactly low at 11.9%, but it's tolerable and could be subject to improvement, especially if he can do a better job of inducing whiffs in 2026. The righty is only 21 years old and isn't arbitration eligible until 2027. Thus, the Royals have time to continue developing him as a pitcher in their system. He has the potential to be a solid No. 3-5 starter, especially with his ability to work efficiently (2.69 K/BB ratio) and keep the ball on the ground. Even if he plateaus a bit with more innings, he at the very least could be a solid reliever at the Major League level, with setup man potential. He is not an "elite" prospect, but Wyatt is one Royals fans should watch closely in 2026, likely in High-A Quad Cities. Kyle DeGroat, RHP (Projected Starting Level: Low-A) When it came to Complex League pitchers, David Shields (our No. 3 prospect) and Kendry Chourio (our No. 4 prospect) got more hype, and rightfully so. They did matriculate to Low-A and found various levels of success in the Carolina League, after all. While DeGroat didn't get as much time in Columbia (he only made one start with the Fireflies), he did show some progress in the Complex League, and he is a talented pitcher who shouldn't be taken lightly in the Royals farm system. At the surface level, DeGroat doesn't seem like a prospect worth following too closely. He posted a 4.11 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 4.89 FIP in 12 outings (11 starts) and 46 IP in the Arizona Complex League. Furthermore, he was a 14th-round pick in the 2024 MLB Draft. That said, he fell in the draft because he was seen as a firm commitment to the University of Texas at the time. Instead, DeGroat surprised folks and accepted a $350,000 signing bonus. Here's what Burnt Orange Nation, a Texas Longhorns blog, said about DeGroat's pitching profile after he signed with the Royals. Even though he's an older prep prospect (he just turned 20 on January 30th), it seems like the Royals handled DeGroat with more kid gloves than they did Shields and Chourio, other teenage pitching prospects. He also had a rough stretch from June 23rd to July 14th, where he gave up 15 runs (12 earned) in four starts. Take that stretch away, and his ERA numbers look a whole lot different. Lastly, he put up a solid outing in his lone Low-A performance, allowing no runs and no hits while walking one and striking out three in 3.1 IP. He is on the outside-looking-in right now when it comes to the Royals' Top-20 Prospects list. However, if he makes progress in Columbia, it wouldn't be surprising to see him not just a Top-20 prospect, but maybe a Top-15 or Top-10 one by midseason. That's how much upside DeGroat still has. View the full article

It may not always feel like it outside, but spring training is coming soon. We're just a few days away from pitchers and catchers officially reporting to the Cubs' complex in Mesa, Ariz., and we're less than two months from regular-season Chicago Cubs baseball. Between now and then, we will see lots of predictions and guesswork offered up. Who's going to lead off? Who's going to make the Cubs bullpen? Will they run a true six-man rotation when Justin Steele returns? I have no answers to those questions today, but I can offer a prediction I feel is a stone-cold lock: Ian Happ is going to have another good season—and, as a bonus prediction, Cubs fans online will attempt to skewer the guy, anyway. My faith in Happ lies, first and foremost, in the data; the man is incredibly consistent. For Happ's career, he sports a 116 wRC+. Last year, Happ finished with a 116 wRC+. Between 2022 (an important line of demarcation for him, something I'll explore later) and 2025, Happ's best season based on wRC+ was a 122, and his lowest was a 116; he's basically the same guy year after year. Look, below, at a chart comparing major data points over those years. There are a few data points that stand out as slightly different (e.g., the strikeout rate in 2024) but you're mostly splitting hairs at that stage. If you're worried that Happ's 2025 being a sign of things to come, I have some good news; he had, maybe, his best season ever, when we consider batted-ball data instead of simple results. The Cubs' left fielder posted the second-best expected wOBA of his career last year, .020 higher than his actual wOBA, suggesting that his slight step backward in 2025 was due largely to some bad luck, tough Wrigley Field park effects, and/or the deadened baseball. This isn't a situation where you'd have expected him to under-perform his xwOBA, either. For example, players who don't pull the ball a lot can sometimes hide behind inflated expected data, because expected data doesn't take into account where you hit the ball and pulling the ball produces better numbers. Happ posted some of his highest pull rates of his career last year, though, so that's not the problem. The oft-maligned outfielder wasn't always this consistent. He posted a 106 wRC+ and a 105 wRC+ in two of his first five seasons. Famously, he was demoted to Iowa for much of the 2019 season due to his issues at the plate, and his 2021 season (105 wRC+) was a follow-up to a 132 wRC+ posted in 2020. Part of the reason for this was that that version of Happ struck out a lot more than he does today. The 2022 campaign was an important year for Happ, as he worked on limiting his strikeout rate and unlocked this more consistent version of himself. Some fans charge Happ with being streaky within seasons, even if he looks metronomic when you glance at his baseball card. While it's true that (for instance) Happ was much better in the second half than the first last season (101 wRC+ vs. a 139), his batted-ball data told a different story, which I wrote about in early August. But truthfully, all hitters are streaky. Everyone can get hot, and everyone can get cold. Freddie Freeman had a run last year between June 1 and July 28 (spanning nearly 200 plate appearances) in which the eventual Hall-of-Fame first baseman posted a 63 wRC+. That's not to say that Happ is Freeman, but if it can happen to Freeman, well, it can happen to Happ, without proving the latter a flake. What makes a hitter "streaky" to begin with, I don't think we can truly say yet. While the improved bat-to-ball skills make Happ more consistent year-to-year, it doesn't stabilize him from game to game. In a study done by Justin Choi of FanGraphs, he found no correlation between strikeout rate and streakiness within a season. Another FanGraphs entry, this time by Ben Clemens, dove into Michael Harris II's 2025 season and suggested that while hot-and-cold streaks beget each other to a degree, the reasons behind them are hard to fully parse. The reasons are probably so idiosyncratic—so tied to both the specific skills and approach of a hitter and the circumstances of any given moment—that explaining the phenomenon broadly is impossible. We can say, at least, that it's not entirely a bad thing to be streaky. In the first article, the least consistent hitter in 2022 was another future Hall of Fame player, Mike Trout, who finished that year with a 176 wRC+. We have to look beyond the ebbs and the flows to see the true greatness of Happ. In baseball, true talent is seen in year-to-year results. Freeman, despite his terrible two-month tumble, still posted a 139 wRC+ last year. His career line? A 141 wRC+. Happ's true talent always shines through at the end of the year, even though it's not quite Freemanesque. It's why he, too, landed right on the nose of his career line. 736165a0-30ecda66-6e3ab337-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 What we can take from this is simple: Happ is about as much of a lock to finish somewhere around a 115-120 wRC+ as you can find. He's probably more of a lock than any other Cubs player to be what you expect him to be. Yes, there will be a few weeks wherein he's red-hot and a few weeks wherein he's ice-cold, but that's a baseball issue, not an Ian Happ issue. The Cubs' starting left fielder is not going to be Cooperstown-bound at the end of his career, but he's shockingly easy to predict as a well above-average player. Try to keep that in mind when he's struggled for a few weeks. It's pretty likely your tweet/skeet/reddit post (or comment right here at North Side Baseball) will eventually look pretty silly, when he inevitably ends up exactly where he always does. Don't panic when he has a rough month, instead, know that Happ is truly a security blanket for the Cubs. There are lots of unknowns in the season ahead, but it's nice to know that you have a player like Happ, who will eventually just be the guy you think he'll be. View the full article

It may not always feel like it outside, but spring training is coming soon. We're just a few days away from pitchers and catchers officially reporting to the Cubs' complex in Mesa, Ariz., and we're less than two months from regular-season Chicago Cubs baseball. Between now and then, we will see lots of predictions and guesswork offered up. Who's going to lead off? Who's going to make the Cubs bullpen? Will they run a true six-man rotation when Justin Steele returns? I have no answers to those questions today, but I can offer a prediction I feel is a stone-cold lock: Ian Happ is going to have another good season—and, as a bonus prediction, Cubs fans online will attempt to skewer the guy, anyway. My faith in Happ lies, first and foremost, in the data; the man is incredibly consistent. For Happ's career, he sports a 116 wRC+. Last year, Happ finished with a 116 wRC+. Between 2022 (an important line of demarcation for him, something I'll explore later) and 2025, Happ's best season based on wRC+ was a 122, and his lowest was a 116; he's basically the same guy year after year. Look, below, at a chart comparing major data points over those years. There are a few data points that stand out as slightly different (e.g., the strikeout rate in 2024) but you're mostly splitting hairs at that stage. If you're worried that Happ's 2025 being a sign of things to come, I have some good news; he had, maybe, his best season ever, when we consider batted-ball data instead of simple results. The Cubs' left fielder posted the second-best expected wOBA of his career last year, .020 higher than his actual wOBA, suggesting that his slight step backward in 2025 was due largely to some bad luck, tough Wrigley Field park effects, and/or the deadened baseball. This isn't a situation where you'd have expected him to under-perform his xwOBA, either. For example, players who don't pull the ball a lot can sometimes hide behind inflated expected data, because expected data doesn't take into account where you hit the ball and pulling the ball produces better numbers. Happ posted some of his highest pull rates of his career last year, though, so that's not the problem. The oft-maligned outfielder wasn't always this consistent. He posted a 106 wRC+ and a 105 wRC+ in two of his first five seasons. Famously, he was demoted to Iowa for much of the 2019 season due to his issues at the plate, and his 2021 season (105 wRC+) was a follow-up to a 132 wRC+ posted in 2020. Part of the reason for this was that that version of Happ struck out a lot more than he does today. The 2022 campaign was an important year for Happ, as he worked on limiting his strikeout rate and unlocked this more consistent version of himself. Some fans charge Happ with being streaky within seasons, even if he looks metronomic when you glance at his baseball card. While it's true that (for instance) Happ was much better in the second half than the first last season (101 wRC+ vs. a 139), his batted-ball data told a different story, which I wrote about in early August. But truthfully, all hitters are streaky. Everyone can get hot, and everyone can get cold. Freddie Freeman had a run last year between June 1 and July 28 (spanning nearly 200 plate appearances) in which the eventual Hall-of-Fame first baseman posted a 63 wRC+. That's not to say that Happ is Freeman, but if it can happen to Freeman, well, it can happen to Happ, without proving the latter a flake. What makes a hitter "streaky" to begin with, I don't think we can truly say yet. While the improved bat-to-ball skills make Happ more consistent year-to-year, it doesn't stabilize him from game to game. In a study done by Justin Choi of FanGraphs, he found no correlation between strikeout rate and streakiness within a season. Another FanGraphs entry, this time by Ben Clemens, dove into Michael Harris II's 2025 season and suggested that while hot-and-cold streaks beget each other to a degree, the reasons behind them are hard to fully parse. The reasons are probably so idiosyncratic—so tied to both the specific skills and approach of a hitter and the circumstances of any given moment—that explaining the phenomenon broadly is impossible. We can say, at least, that it's not entirely a bad thing to be streaky. In the first article, the least consistent hitter in 2022 was another future Hall of Fame player, Mike Trout, who finished that year with a 176 wRC+. We have to look beyond the ebbs and the flows to see the true greatness of Happ. In baseball, true talent is seen in year-to-year results. Freeman, despite his terrible two-month tumble, still posted a 139 wRC+ last year. His career line? A 141 wRC+. Happ's true talent always shines through at the end of the year, even though it's not quite Freemanesque. It's why he, too, landed right on the nose of his career line. 736165a0-30ecda66-6e3ab337-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 What we can take from this is simple: Happ is about as much of a lock to finish somewhere around a 115-120 wRC+ as you can find. He's probably more of a lock than any other Cubs player to be what you expect him to be. Yes, there will be a few weeks wherein he's red-hot and a few weeks wherein he's ice-cold, but that's a baseball issue, not an Ian Happ issue. The Cubs' starting left fielder is not going to be Cooperstown-bound at the end of his career, but he's shockingly easy to predict as a well above-average player. Try to keep that in mind when he's struggled for a few weeks. It's pretty likely your tweet/skeet/reddit post (or comment right here at North Side Baseball) will eventually look pretty silly, when he inevitably ends up exactly where he always does. Don't panic when he has a rough month, instead, know that Happ is truly a security blanket for the Cubs. There are lots of unknowns in the season ahead, but it's nice to know that you have a player like Happ, who will eventually just be the guy you think he'll be. View the full article