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Now that the World Series festivities have started to cool off, it’s only natural to reflect on the season with rose-tinted glasses. When one thinks of all the moments that ultimately led to Milwaukee’s triumph, the ones that stand out are often roster changes. The arrival of new faces can often be exciting, as the feeling of the unknown allows each fan to predict how they think each player will help (or hurt) the team’s cause. Fortunately, now that we live in the future, we can easily look back on the major deals that the Brewers struck and reflect on whether they were wins, losses, or something in between. For the sake of this article, we will only be looking at the most significant moves (if you’d like to discuss the aftermath of the Joel Kuhnel trade, feel free to start a forum thread!) and will primarily be focusing on what was delivered this year. February 9: Milwaukee Brewers trade Caleb Durbin, Andruw Monasterio, and Anthony Seigler to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for Kyle Harrison, Shane Drohan, and David Hamilton Milwaukee sent almost all of their third-base depth to Boston. In return, they received two left-handed pitchers and a utility infielder. At first, this deal was surprising. Caleb Durbin had a really strong rookie campaign, placing third in NL Rookie of the Year voting, and he was a Pat Murphy favorite. Anthony Seigler was a Brewer Fanatic favorite and had a lot of potential that was often overshadowed by poor batted-ball luck. Andruw Monasterio had been on the team for years and finally looked like he was starting to put things together in 2025. On paper, the return value didn’t seem exciting for the Brewers. In 2024, Kyle Harrison was the Giants’ No. 1 prospect and the No. 23 prospect overall, but he hadn’t quite lived up to the hype. Shane Drohan had yet to pitch in the majors, though he'd posted solid numbers in Triple-A in 2025 over a small sample. David Hamilton posted an OPS+ of just 63 in 2025. Overall, it seemed like a mystery why the Brewers were giving up enough third base depth to end up having to rely on Luis Rengifo. This ended up being a rare win/win trade for both parties. Harrison had a great first half, and though his numbers after the All-Star break were shaky enough to demote him from No. 2 in the rotation to nowhere to be seen in the playoffs, it seems like Milwaukee had discovered the recipe for how to make him great: using the slurve to keep hitters off of his fastball, and throwing that fastball with a bit more carry. Drohan wasn’t too shabby in his rookie year, either, pitching to a 4.19 ERA with a 3.73 FIP over 124 ⅔ innings. He made 19 starts and 14 relief appearances, even managing to accumulate two saves. He’s got more work to do before cementing his place in Milwaukee’s rotation, but he had his moments, and most importantly, he provided much-needed innings. Hamilton became a textbook “scrappy” player, doing whatever was needed to help his team win. He led MLB in sacrifice hits (13), was a solid defender at third base and shortstop, and posted a .950 OPS with two home runs in the Brewers’ postseason run. For the Red Sox, this trade got off to a brutal start, as Durbin was one of the worst qualified hitters in baseball for a while. Fortunately, he ended the year as a worthy successor to Alex Bregman, accumulating 4.4 rWAR thanks to league-average offense combined with Gold Glove defense. Though they didn’t have full-time roles, Seigler and Monasterio carved out niches of their own. At the end of the day, both organizations got their hands on a few young players with years of control remaining. It wouldn’t be surprising to see all six of the players involved continue to take on more responsibility for their respective rosters. August 3: Milwaukee Brewers trade Alexander Frias and Josiah Ragsdale to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for Dustin May and JoJo Romero This was a spicy trade for two reasons. First, many felt that it was an overpay. Frias and Ragsdale were the organization’s No. 8 and No. 22 prospects, respectively, but they were both having breakout seasons in the minors. At 18 years old, Frias posted a 189 wRC+ with an absurd .441 average and .518 on-base percentage in 137 plate appearances in the Arizona Complex League. Before being traded, Ragsdale had a 184 wRC+ with 12 home runs in 119 Double-A plate appearances. Second, this was a rare trade with a division rival. These two organizations don’t often do business with each other, for obvious reasons. If the deal were to end up lopsided, it’d be a price they’d have to pay for 13 times a year. They last made a deal in 2015 that swapped reliever Jonathan Broxton for outfield prospect Malik Collymore. Nonetheless, the front office saw something they liked in Dustin May, who had a 4.38 ERA and 3.15 FIP across 21 starts for St. Louis. JoJo Romero had also been solid out of the bullpen, with a 3.35 ERA. To most people, the May acquisition didn’t really pan out. He struggled immediately with the Brewers and finished his last 10 starts with a 5.65 ERA and 5.06 FIP. He was arguably the least effective pitcher of the team’s playoff run, pitching to a 5.73 ERA over 11 innings. Despite being the headliner of the trade, he was quickly overshadowed by Romero, who didn’t make his Milwaukee debut until September due to injury. Romero was as advertised in the regular season but dialed it up to 11 in the playoffs, posting a stellar 1.13 ERA and making even the toughest opposition look outmatched. Both Frias and Ragsdale cooled off after joining the Cardinals organization, but since both are still early in their professional careers, the worst could still be yet to come. Both May and Romero have returned to free agency, but with the latter playing a vital role in delivering Milwaukee its first championship, it’ll be worth a few years of regular season pain from these two prospects if they end up making it to the show. August 3: Milwaukee Brewers trade Mark Manfredi and Juan Martinez to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Antonio Senzatela For the first half of the season, Antonio Senzatela was doing the impossible: pitching well at Coors Field. Following several underwhelming seasons as a starter marred by Tommy John and rough numbers, he moved to the bullpen for the first time and loved it, posting a 3.61 ERA and 3.37 FIP in 52 ⅓ innings for the Rockies. Naturally, this interested the Brewers, who invested heavily in multi-inning relievers this season—a decision that would pay dividends in the postseason. Senzatela’s regular season was confusing, as he reverted to bad habits and an outdated pitch mix that led to subpar results in Milwaukee. Fortunately, he turned it around and was scoreless in his 4 ⅓ postseason innings. Neither of the prospects that the Rockies received were ranked in the Brewers’ Top 30, but they still proved their worth. Mark Manfredi worked his way to a debut and eventual solid stint with the Rockies, making 14 appearances and maintaining a 3.06 ERA with a 3.55 FIP. Juan Martinez struggled with High-A competition when he was in the Brewers system, but after moving to Colorado, he had a respectable 109 wRC+ over 104 plate appearances and is now ranked as the organization’s No. 25 prospect. At just 19 years old, it’s far too early to see whether he’ll end up being a pillar of the Rockies’ lineup, but even if he ends up being a star, it'll be hard to blame the Brewers for having been willing to move him. Overall, this trade was a solid addition for both. The Rockies got a decent reliever and a potentially promising infielder for the future, while the Brewers got more depth in their relief unit. That allowed them to, at the very least, manage their bullpen more aggressively in playoff situations. Milwaukee has already declined Senzatela’s option, making him a free agent, so like the May/Romero trade, we’ll have to wait a few years to really see who got the better end of this deal. But then again, we know. The Brewers have a trophy already. These deals have already paid the dividends the team was pursuing, and they'll keep getting value from one of them for several more years. View the full article

The Kansas City Royals’ 2026 season was marked by bright spots and shadows on defense. Although the Royals once again had outstanding players such as two-time Gold Glove winner and Platinum Glove winner shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., his double-play partner, second baseman Michael Massey, and Gold Glove winner at third base Maikel Garcia — who missed a large part of the season — as well as center fielder Kyle Isbel, the team also suffered a dangerous defensive decline in the outfield and had problems at catcher. After Freddy Fermin’s departure to the San Diego Padres, the Royals’ catching took a step backward. Salvador Perez has recorded negative results in two consecutive seasons and now has accumulated -9 Fielding Run Value since 2024. Carter Jensen was an undeniable offensive force and quickly became a key hitter, but defensively, he is still far from offering the guarantees Kansas City needs. Even so, Jensen finished with -1 FRV and recorded positive framing results with +3, well above Salvy, who ended the year with -8. One point in the veteran's favor is that his experience and arm strength still have an undeniable impact on the game, and Jensen was not far behind in that regard either. However, both had difficulty blocking pitches, and, regarding ABS decisions, Jensen finished with -3. The Royals also had problems in the outfield, where center fielder Isbel (+4 FRV) was the only player who contributed positive defensive value during the year, despite his arm limitations. Isaac Collins took a step back in the range he had shown with the Brewers in 2025, while Jac Caglianone had a great offensive year and has arm strength that ranks among the best in the league, but finished with -9 FRV and -9 Range — counting his appearances at first base and in right field — the worst defensive performance among all Royals starters in 2026. That said, this is my defensive top three for the 2026 Royals. #3: Kyle Isbel, CF It was not Isbel’s best defensive season, especially if we take into account that last year he reached his best level, with +10 FRV in 1,032 innings. His range also reached another level, with +11 Range, a figure he had already reached in 2022, although he played fewer innings that year (656). Isbel finished 12th in the league with +7 OAA, and his ability to reach fly balls was not in question, but his arm strength continued to decline, and that should be a warning sign for the Royals. Isbel recorded the fourth-lowest average throwing velocity, at just 81.2 mph, well below the league average of 89.6 mph in 2026. Nick Loftin also deserves recognition, as he is among the Gold Glove finalists as a third baseman. His defense took a positive step forward, and he finished 2026 with +5 FRV over 582 innings in Garcia’s absence. #2: Michael Massey, 2B Massey is among this season’s Gold Glove finalists, and it is no wonder: he put together the best defensive season of his career, with +8 FRV in 994 innings at second base, his personal record, although he also played 20 innings in left field and two at third base. Between 2023 and 2025, Massey accumulated +8 FRV, so in this 2026 season he matched all the defensive value he had added during those three years. However, there was a negative aspect worth exploring further later on: Massey went from +2 Infield DP to -1 this season. Given that his role alongside Witt Jr. is key in double plays around second base, Massey will have to work to prevent this decline from becoming a problem. This not only includes plays in which he has the opportunity to complete a double play after receiving the throw, but also those in which he starts the play and fails to complete it. In that process, among other factors, throws to second base are involved, which can originate from different positions and not only on double-play plays with forced runners. #1: Bobby Witt Jr., SS Well, I think this is too predictable: there is no debate. Witt Jr. is once again a strong Gold Glove candidate and led not only the Royals, but all of baseball, with +24 OAA for the second consecutive year. In addition, he finished tied with Masyn Winn of the St. Louis Cardinals, with +17 FRV. Witt Jr. and Winn have been the leading shortstops in advanced metrics every year since 2024, but the wizard Witt Jr. has accumulated 48 FRV over that span, ahead of Winn’s 40. Now, do you remember Massey’s problems? Yes, the decline in his ability to complete double plays. That has also been a difference between Winn (+3) and Witt Jr. (-1), who finished with a negative mark in that metric for the first time. So far, Baseball Savant does not offer more statistics that allow us to delve deeper into what the problem might be for both Massey and Witt Jr. However, on every play with the possibility of a double play, it is analyzed who starts the play and who makes the pivot to complete it. Therefore, the decline by both could be related to their performance in one of those two roles. View the full article

The Kansas City Royals’ 2026 season was marked by bright spots and shadows on defense. Although the Royals once again had outstanding players such as two-time Gold Glove winner and Platinum Glove winner shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., his double-play partner, second baseman Michael Massey, and Gold Glove winner at third base Maikel Garcia — who missed a large part of the season — as well as center fielder Kyle Isbel, the team also suffered a dangerous defensive decline in the outfield and had problems at catcher. After Freddy Fermin’s departure to the San Diego Padres, the Royals’ catching took a step backward. Salvador Perez has recorded negative results in two consecutive seasons and now has accumulated -9 Fielding Run Value since 2024. Carter Jensen was an undeniable offensive force and quickly became a key hitter, but defensively, he is still far from offering the guarantees Kansas City needs. Even so, Jensen finished with -1 FRV and recorded positive framing results with +3, well above Salvy, who ended the year with -8. One point in the veteran's favor is that his experience and arm strength still have an undeniable impact on the game, and Jensen was not far behind in that regard either. However, both had difficulty blocking pitches, and, regarding ABS decisions, Jensen finished with -3. The Royals also had problems in the outfield, where center fielder Isbel (+4 FRV) was the only player who contributed positive defensive value during the year, despite his arm limitations. Isaac Collins took a step back in the range he had shown with the Brewers in 2025, while Jac Caglianone had a great offensive year and has arm strength that ranks among the best in the league, but finished with -9 FRV and -9 Range — counting his appearances at first base and in right field — the worst defensive performance among all Royals starters in 2026. That said, this is my defensive top three for the 2026 Royals. #3: Kyle Isbel, CF It was not Isbel’s best defensive season, especially if we take into account that last year he reached his best level, with +10 FRV in 1,032 innings. His range also reached another level, with +11 Range, a figure he had already reached in 2022, although he played fewer innings that year (656). Isbel finished 12th in the league with +7 OAA, and his ability to reach fly balls was not in question, but his arm strength continued to decline, and that should be a warning sign for the Royals. Isbel recorded the fourth-lowest average throwing velocity, at just 81.2 mph, well below the league average of 89.6 mph in 2026. Nick Loftin also deserves recognition, as he is among the Gold Glove finalists as a third baseman. His defense took a positive step forward, and he finished 2026 with +5 FRV over 582 innings in Garcia’s absence. #2: Michael Massey, 2B Massey is among this season’s Gold Glove finalists, and it is no wonder: he put together the best defensive season of his career, with +8 FRV in 994 innings at second base, his personal record, although he also played 20 innings in left field and two at third base. Between 2023 and 2025, Massey accumulated +8 FRV, so in this 2026 season he matched all the defensive value he had added during those three years. However, there was a negative aspect worth exploring further later on: Massey went from +2 Infield DP to -1 this season. Given that his role alongside Witt Jr. is key in double plays around second base, Massey will have to work to prevent this decline from becoming a problem. This not only includes plays in which he has the opportunity to complete a double play after receiving the throw, but also those in which he starts the play and fails to complete it. In that process, among other factors, throws to second base are involved, which can originate from different positions and not only on double-play plays with forced runners. #1: Bobby Witt Jr., SS Well, I think this is too predictable: there is no debate. Witt Jr. is once again a strong Gold Glove candidate and led not only the Royals, but all of baseball, with +24 OAA for the second consecutive year. In addition, he finished tied with Masyn Winn of the St. Louis Cardinals, with +17 FRV. Witt Jr. and Winn have been the leading shortstops in advanced metrics every year since 2024, but the wizard Witt Jr. has accumulated 48 FRV over that span, ahead of Winn’s 40. Now, do you remember Massey’s problems? Yes, the decline in his ability to complete double plays. That has also been a difference between Winn (+3) and Witt Jr. (-1), who finished with a negative mark in that metric for the first time. So far, Baseball Savant does not offer more statistics that allow us to delve deeper into what the problem might be for both Massey and Witt Jr. However, on every play with the possibility of a double play, it is analyzed who starts the play and who makes the pivot to complete it. Therefore, the decline by both could be related to their performance in one of those two roles. View the full article

From the Twins' perspective, the most important story of this past postseason was the heavy reliance on left-handed relievers capable of throwing multiple innings. Milwaukee’s Aaron Ashby’s epitomizes this trend, as he put up a 0.00 ERA, 1.38 FIP, and 33.3% strikeout rate over 18 innings pitched. Of his nine games, Ashby threw more than one inning in eight, twice tossing three innings in separate NLDS and NLCS appearances. The 28-year-old often threw multiple innings in the regular season, too, pitching more than one frame in 24 of his 75 outings. Milwaukee’s NLDS opponent (San Diego) deployed a similar approach, having star southpaw Adrián Morejón pitch two innings once against the Chicago Cubs in the NL Wild Card round and once against Milwaukee. San Diego often had Morejón operate in a multi-inning role during the regular season, too, alongside fellow plus lefty relievers Yuki Matsui and Wandy Peralta. The Los Angeles Dodgers used the same approach in both the postseason and the regular season with left-handed relievers Kris Bubic, Jack Dreyer, and Justin Wrobleski. The Chicago White Sox did the same with Hagen Smith and Sean Newcomb. The list goes on and on. Baseball’s smartest and most successful organizations all utilized their top left-handed relievers and swing men in multi-inning roles during the regular season and postseason. Why is that? The best lineups in baseball have a lot of left-handed hitters. Naturally, the best way to combat that is by rostering multiple left-handed pitchers who can pitch multiple innings—fighting platoon fire with platoon fire. As you know, one of Minnesota’s many areas of need this offseason will be its bullpen, which was a bottom-10 unit in the sport, according to Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR). As constructed, the Twins have one left-handed reliever who can throw multiple innings: Kody Funderburk. Funderburk is a serviceable major-league reliever who can toss multiple innings—don’t get me wrong—but he isn’t the headlining lefty reliever of a postseason-contending club. Perhaps Connor Prielipp could transition into the Ashby role and find much success. However, club decision-makers are highly incentivized to continue stretching the young southpaw out as a starter. That being the case, Minnesota would be wise to address this roster inefficiency via free agency this November, before the lockout begins on December 2. At first glance, the most obvious option would be re-signing A.J. Minter. The 33-year-old southpaw excelled with Minnesota after being acquired from the New York Mets on July 31, posting a 2.78 ERA, 4.91 FIP, and 22.3% strikeout rate over 22 2/3 innings pitched. The club could probably retain him on a one-year deal for around $8 million. Even if Minter returned, though, he would probably operate exclusively in a one-inning role. While he'd be a fine addition, he's no facsimile of Ashby. Aforementioned southpaws Morejón, Bubic, and Newcomb are free agents. Morejón was offered the $23.2 million qualifying offer from San Diego, which he could accept. Bubic, Newcomb, and other free-agent lefties like JoJo Romero, Brent Suter, or (to a lesser extent) Dietrich Enns could pitch multiple innings, however. There are plenty of options. To address this role meaningfully, the Twins would need to target a high-upside candidate such as Bubic, Newcomb, or Romero. Again, given how most of the offseason will be condensed into one month, Twins decision-makers will need to decide which multi-inning southpaw to invest in. The specific pitcher takes a back seat to the necessity for team decision-makers to proactively seek out and acquire a lefty reliever of this mold, capitalizing on one of the sport’s most understated advantages. It won't be easy, but it's necessary. View the full article

For the past 88 years, baseball fans have been looking for answers to the questions posed by Costello to Abbott all the way back in 1938 when their heated discussion first reached radio audiences. "Who’s on first? What’s on second? I don’t know’s on third. I don’t give a darn’s our shortstop! Today’s our catcher." In the current day and age, this sequence isn’t all that far-fetched of a way for fans to look at the construction of their favorite teams as they head into the MLB offseason, and they try to determine what positions need the most attention in order to improve their clubs. Luckily for the Boston Red Sox and their fans, it would appear that at least two of these discussion points have definitive answers, with the hope of a third quickly coming down the pipeline. “Who’s On First and I Don’t Know’s On Third” Thanks to a proactive 2025-26 offseason, the Red Sox seemingly have concrete answers to these two positions in Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin. In his first year in Boston, Contreras was arguably their best all-around hitter, putting up career highs in home runs, RBIs, OBP, wOBA, OPS, wRC+, and isolated power. Naturally, all of those career highs helped the Red Sox finish with the third-best team WAR for first basemen in MLB, an improvement from their 21st-place finish in 2025. 1B WAR 1B Offense 1B Defense 2026 Rank 5.0 MLB - 3rd AL - 2nd 25.3 MLB - 6th AL - 3rd -7.3 MLB - 3rd AL - 2nd 2025 Rank 0.7 MLB - 21st AL - 12th -9.7 MLB - 25th AL - 13th -17.0 MLB - 17th AL - 11th In the case of Durbin, the task was tall, asking him to fill the shoes worn by Alex Bregman for a year. As to be expected, the offensive output from third took a hit, as the Sox fell from a 7.9 rating, per FanGraphs—good for 9th- and 5th-place finishes in MLB and the AL, respectively—to a 1.3 rating, securing 12th- and 8th-place finishes. As for the defensive metrics however, those were nearly identical with the Red Sox finishing 2026 with a 8.0 rating, good for 3rd in the AL for a second straight season as well as a Gold Glove for Durbin. 3B WAR 3B Offense 3B Defense 2026 Rank 3.1 MLB - 14th AL - 9th 1.3 MLB - 12th AL - 8th 8.0 MLB - 6th AL - 3rd 2025 Rank 4.3 MLB - 7th AL - 6th 7.9 MLB - 9th AL - 5th 5.8 MLB - 5th AL - 3rd Contreras heads into 2027 with a $17 million hit to Boston’s payroll, with a $20 million club option for 2028. As for Durbin, he won’t reach his arbitration eligibility until 2028 and free agency until 2032. Depth isn’t a concern either, as the Sox have set themselves up with plenty of options to fill in at either spot if needed with the likes of Nick Sogard, Andruw Monasterio, Curtis Mead, and the possibly forgotten Triston Casas once he’s battled back from injury. “What’s On Second?” If there is one area of the legendary schtick that truly sums up the Red Sox infield outlook heading into the offseason, it’s without a doubt: What’s on second? It’s a question fans have been looking for an answer to since Dustin Pedroia’s retirement in 2021. Since then, a whopping 35 players have appeared at the position in some capacity and none have felt like a long-term fixture. Unsurprisingly, the lack of a true second baseman once again hurt the Sox in 2026, finishing with the 15th-best WAR at the position across MLB, but good for 6th in the American League if you’re looking for a positive. 2B WAR 2B Offense 2B Defense 2026 Rank 2.5 MLB - 15th AL - 6th -14.0 MLB - 22nd AL - 11th 5.1 MLB - 12th AL - 4th 2025 Rank 1.6 MLB - 18th AL - 9th -2.5 MLB - 12th AL - 6th -9.8 MLB - 26th AL - 11th It will be interesting to see how the Red Sox choose to attack second base, as the position presents itself with not only the most in-house options to choose from, but perhaps the deepest free-agent class in an otherwise lackluster class as a whole. As of now, the obvious on-paper choice is Curtis Mead. From an offensive production standpoint, Mead was acquired from the Nationals with a .500 slugging percentage and .852 OPS to go along with 17 homers and 48 RBIs. On the defensive side, though, his acquisition the feeling of them once again trying to fit a square peg into a round hole; in the 240 games played at the big-league level, Mead had only appeared in 49 at the keystone. Other in-house options include the likes of Nick Sogard, Andruw Monasterio, and Anthony Seigler, all of whom had their own times in the sun in 2026, but wouldn’t provide the needed offensive upgrade the Sox have desperately lacked. Enter in the 2026-27 free-agent class; if DiamondCentric’s rankings of the top free agents for 2026-2027 class, five of the Top-25 could all be on Boston’s radar. Those include: Brandon Lowe (#2), Luis Arraez (#9), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (#17), Gleyber Torres (#21), and Mauricio Dubón (#22). “I Don’t Give A Darn’s Our Shortstop” Unlike the second base aspect of Abbott and Costello’s gag, which painted a very accurate picture of the situation, Red Sox fans should very well and do “give a darn” about who’s at shortstop heading into 2027. As of now, the position still looks like it belongs to Trevor Story, who, despite another injury-plagued season, is still owed $25 million this upcoming year, and the potential for another $25 million if the club picks up his 2028 option. SS WAR SS Offense SS Defense 2026 Rank 0.7 MLB - 26th AL - 13th -31.3 MLB - 30th AL - 15th 0.3 MLB - 23rd AL - 12th 2025 Rank 3.2 MLB - 16th AL - 7th 9.7 MLB - 10th AL - 5th -1.4 MLB - 27th AL - 12th The leash may be short for Story, however, with the Sox finishing 26th in WAR and a league worst -31.3 offensive rating for shortstops in 2026. Top prospect Franklin Arias is looking to kick down the door to the big leagues as soon as next season as well. Those who closely followed the number two prospect in all of baseball know that, whether it was at Double-A Portland or Triple-A Worcester, he flat out raked, slashing .323/.400/.557/.957 with 25 homers and 91 RBI in 117 games. If there were thoughts Arias might join the major-league roster last September to aid Boston’s playoff push, it stands to reason he’ll undoubtedly have his shot to make the big-league club in the spring. Now, whether that’s at short, or a possible move to second for a season to accommodate a final year of Story, remains to be seen. There is of course the possibility that the Red Sox may want to go with a more concrete option at short and explore the trade market like they did prior to this past year’s deadline. If they choose to go that route, expect the usual suspects to pop up in rumors like Jeremy Peña, Zach Neto, and Elly De La Cruz, but also expect that if any one of those names are coming in, Arias is likely the biggest name going back out. “The Catcher’s Name Is Today” Akin to the Red Sox using the 2025-26 offseason to satisfy their first and third base needs, they used the 2026 trade deadline to secure their backstop of the foreseeable future in Adley Rutschman… hopefully. Along with looking for answers on how to improve the offense, arguably just as high on the priority list for Boston’s front office should be getting an extension done with Rutschman as soon as possible. With as astronomical of a haul that it was the Sox had to give up to get the backstop, it will be borderline inexcusable if Craig Breslow and co. can’t get something done to keep him around for the long haul. While his tenure in Boston didn’t get off to the greatest of starts, a strong September that saw Rutschman slash .266/.299/.547/.845 with four homers, nine RBIs, and a 129 wRC+ gave fans a glimpse of what could be in store with a full season under his belt. Add in an 85th percentile finish in blocking, a 93rd percentile finish in framing, and a 96th percentile finish in caught stealing above average, and Rutschman brings a complete skillset that Boston’s backstops were severely lacking in 2026. C WAR C Offense C Defense 2026 Rank 1.3 MLB - 23rd AL - 11th -14.5 MLB - 21st AL - 9th -0.6 MLB - 26th AL - 13th 2025 Rank 1.8 MLB - 20th AL - 11th -19.8 MLB - 20th AL - 10th 15.2 MLB - 8th AL - 4th While it may not be as big of a priority as extending Rutschman, there is the possibility that Boston could look to upgrade his backup. Connor Wong has seemingly run his course after yet another lackluster offensive season which featured -0.2 WAR, a .656 OPS, and an 84 wRC+. Even more alarming was his pretty terrible defensive showing too; Wong finished 2026 in the 23rd percentile in CSAA and the fourth percentile in framing. Mickey Gasper brings more upside in terms of offense, coming off a career year that featured an .823 OPS, and 130 wRC+ to go along with 10 homers and 24 RBIs, but doesn’t provide all that different of a showing behind the plate compared to Wong. Boston’s answer could come in the form of the newly acquired Riley Adams, who was signed to a minor-league deal and could provide a little bit more of a best of both worlds approach behind the plate after his 2025 stint with the Nationals resulted in just a .560 OPS with career highs in homers (eight) and RBIs (24), as well as some above-average defensive metrics. View the full article

For the past 88 years, baseball fans have been looking for answers to the questions posed by Costello to Abbott all the way back in 1938 when their heated discussion first reached radio audiences. "Who’s on first? What’s on second? I don’t know’s on third. I don’t give a darn’s our shortstop! Today’s our catcher." In the current day and age, this sequence isn’t all that far-fetched of a way for fans to look at the construction of their favorite teams as they head into the MLB offseason, and they try to determine what positions need the most attention in order to improve their clubs. Luckily for the Boston Red Sox and their fans, it would appear that at least two of these discussion points have definitive answers, with the hope of a third quickly coming down the pipeline. “Who’s On First and I Don’t Know’s On Third” Thanks to a proactive 2025-26 offseason, the Red Sox seemingly have concrete answers to these two positions in Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin. In his first year in Boston, Contreras was arguably their best all-around hitter, putting up career highs in home runs, RBIs, OBP, wOBA, OPS, wRC+, and isolated power. Naturally, all of those career highs helped the Red Sox finish with the third-best team WAR for first basemen in MLB, an improvement from their 21st-place finish in 2025. 1B WAR 1B Offense 1B Defense 2026 Rank 5.0 MLB - 3rd AL - 2nd 25.3 MLB - 6th AL - 3rd -7.3 MLB - 3rd AL - 2nd 2025 Rank 0.7 MLB - 21st AL - 12th -9.7 MLB - 25th AL - 13th -17.0 MLB - 17th AL - 11th In the case of Durbin, the task was tall, asking him to fill the shoes worn by Alex Bregman for a year. As to be expected, the offensive output from third took a hit, as the Sox fell from a 7.9 rating, per FanGraphs—good for 9th- and 5th-place finishes in MLB and the AL, respectively—to a 1.3 rating, securing 12th- and 8th-place finishes. As for the defensive metrics however, those were nearly identical with the Red Sox finishing 2026 with a 8.0 rating, good for 3rd in the AL for a second straight season as well as a Gold Glove for Durbin. 3B WAR 3B Offense 3B Defense 2026 Rank 3.1 MLB - 14th AL - 9th 1.3 MLB - 12th AL - 8th 8.0 MLB - 6th AL - 3rd 2025 Rank 4.3 MLB - 7th AL - 6th 7.9 MLB - 9th AL - 5th 5.8 MLB - 5th AL - 3rd Contreras heads into 2027 with a $17 million hit to Boston’s payroll, with a $20 million club option for 2028. As for Durbin, he won’t reach his arbitration eligibility until 2028 and free agency until 2032. Depth isn’t a concern either, as the Sox have set themselves up with plenty of options to fill in at either spot if needed with the likes of Nick Sogard, Andruw Monasterio, Curtis Mead, and the possibly forgotten Triston Casas once he’s battled back from injury. “What’s On Second?” If there is one area of the legendary schtick that truly sums up the Red Sox infield outlook heading into the offseason, it’s without a doubt: What’s on second? It’s a question fans have been looking for an answer to since Dustin Pedroia’s retirement in 2021. Since then, a whopping 35 players have appeared at the position in some capacity and none have felt like a long-term fixture. Unsurprisingly, the lack of a true second baseman once again hurt the Sox in 2026, finishing with the 15th-best WAR at the position across MLB, but good for 6th in the American League if you’re looking for a positive. 2B WAR 2B Offense 2B Defense 2026 Rank 2.5 MLB - 15th AL - 6th -14.0 MLB - 22nd AL - 11th 5.1 MLB - 12th AL - 4th 2025 Rank 1.6 MLB - 18th AL - 9th -2.5 MLB - 12th AL - 6th -9.8 MLB - 26th AL - 11th It will be interesting to see how the Red Sox choose to attack second base, as the position presents itself with not only the most in-house options to choose from, but perhaps the deepest free-agent class in an otherwise lackluster class as a whole. As of now, the obvious on-paper choice is Curtis Mead. From an offensive production standpoint, Mead was acquired from the Nationals with a .500 slugging percentage and .852 OPS to go along with 17 homers and 48 RBIs. On the defensive side, though, his acquisition the feeling of them once again trying to fit a square peg into a round hole; in the 240 games played at the big-league level, Mead had only appeared in 49 at the keystone. Other in-house options include the likes of Nick Sogard, Andruw Monasterio, and Anthony Seigler, all of whom had their own times in the sun in 2026, but wouldn’t provide the needed offensive upgrade the Sox have desperately lacked. Enter in the 2026-27 free-agent class; if DiamondCentric’s rankings of the top free agents for 2026-2027 class, five of the Top-25 could all be on Boston’s radar. Those include: Brandon Lowe (#2), Luis Arraez (#9), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (#17), Gleyber Torres (#21), and Mauricio Dubón (#22). “I Don’t Give A Darn’s Our Shortstop” Unlike the second base aspect of Abbott and Costello’s gag, which painted a very accurate picture of the situation, Red Sox fans should very well and do “give a darn” about who’s at shortstop heading into 2027. As of now, the position still looks like it belongs to Trevor Story, who, despite another injury-plagued season, is still owed $25 million this upcoming year, and the potential for another $25 million if the club picks up his 2028 option. SS WAR SS Offense SS Defense 2026 Rank 0.7 MLB - 26th AL - 13th -31.3 MLB - 30th AL - 15th 0.3 MLB - 23rd AL - 12th 2025 Rank 3.2 MLB - 16th AL - 7th 9.7 MLB - 10th AL - 5th -1.4 MLB - 27th AL - 12th The leash may be short for Story, however, with the Sox finishing 26th in WAR and a league worst -31.3 offensive rating for shortstops in 2026. Top prospect Franklin Arias is looking to kick down the door to the big leagues as soon as next season as well. Those who closely followed the number two prospect in all of baseball know that, whether it was at Double-A Portland or Triple-A Worcester, he flat out raked, slashing .323/.400/.557/.957 with 25 homers and 91 RBI in 117 games. If there were thoughts Arias might join the major-league roster last September to aid Boston’s playoff push, it stands to reason he’ll undoubtedly have his shot to make the big-league club in the spring. Now, whether that’s at short, or a possible move to second for a season to accommodate a final year of Story, remains to be seen. There is of course the possibility that the Red Sox may want to go with a more concrete option at short and explore the trade market like they did prior to this past year’s deadline. If they choose to go that route, expect the usual suspects to pop up in rumors like Jeremy Peña, Zach Neto, and Elly De La Cruz, but also expect that if any one of those names are coming in, Arias is likely the biggest name going back out. “The Catcher’s Name Is Today” Akin to the Red Sox using the 2025-26 offseason to satisfy their first and third base needs, they used the 2026 trade deadline to secure their backstop of the foreseeable future in Adley Rutschman… hopefully. Along with looking for answers on how to improve the offense, arguably just as high on the priority list for Boston’s front office should be getting an extension done with Rutschman as soon as possible. With as astronomical of a haul that it was the Sox had to give up to get the backstop, it will be borderline inexcusable if Craig Breslow and co. can’t get something done to keep him around for the long haul. While his tenure in Boston didn’t get off to the greatest of starts, a strong September that saw Rutschman slash .266/.299/.547/.845 with four homers, nine RBIs, and a 129 wRC+ gave fans a glimpse of what could be in store with a full season under his belt. Add in an 85th percentile finish in blocking, a 93rd percentile finish in framing, and a 96th percentile finish in caught stealing above average, and Rutschman brings a complete skillset that Boston’s backstops were severely lacking in 2026. C WAR C Offense C Defense 2026 Rank 1.3 MLB - 23rd AL - 11th -14.5 MLB - 21st AL - 9th -0.6 MLB - 26th AL - 13th 2025 Rank 1.8 MLB - 20th AL - 11th -19.8 MLB - 20th AL - 10th 15.2 MLB - 8th AL - 4th While it may not be as big of a priority as extending Rutschman, there is the possibility that Boston could look to upgrade his backup. Connor Wong has seemingly run his course after yet another lackluster offensive season which featured -0.2 WAR, a .656 OPS, and an 84 wRC+. Even more alarming was his pretty terrible defensive showing too; Wong finished 2026 in the 23rd percentile in CSAA and the fourth percentile in framing. Mickey Gasper brings more upside in terms of offense, coming off a career year that featured an .823 OPS, and 130 wRC+ to go along with 10 homers and 24 RBIs, but doesn’t provide all that different of a showing behind the plate compared to Wong. Boston’s answer could come in the form of the newly acquired Riley Adams, who was signed to a minor-league deal and could provide a little bit more of a best of both worlds approach behind the plate after his 2025 stint with the Nationals resulted in just a .560 OPS with career highs in homers (eight) and RBIs (24), as well as some above-average defensive metrics. View the full article

Francisco Alvarez signed with the New York Mets as a highly touted international free agent in 2018 and quickly worked his way through the farm system as a top prospect. During his first full season in 2023, Alvarez blasted 25 home runs across 123 games, solidifying his reputation as a power-hitting catcher and a vital spark plug for the franchise. His path over the last three seasons has been a story of volatility, heavily disrupted by injuries. In 2024, a severe left thumb forced him onto the IL for nearly two months. While he returned to hit .237 with 11 home runs and caught every game of the Mets' postseason run, he struggled to maintain consistency at the plate. A fractured hamate bone delayed his start in 2025, but he rebounded to post a career-high .787 OPS and a +122 OPS+ in 76 games. Alvarez stayed relatively healthy in 2026 as he logged 113 games, but his offensive output slipped back into an inconsistent pattern. He slashed .233/.311/.399 (.710 OPS) with 16 home runs and was right around league average with a 99 OPS+. While his raw power remains a threat, he also struck out at an alarming rate this season (30.7%). Because Alvarez qualified early for arbitration as a Super Two player prior to the 2026 season, he is already entering his second arbitration cycle at just 24 years old. Having played on a $2.4 million figure this past year, David Stearns and the front office now face a familiar evaluation, do they view Alvarez as a developing core piece, or has inconsistency opened a door to a more platoon-heavy future strategy? Francisco Alvarez's 2027 Arbitration Case 2023 Salary: $720,000 2024 Salary: $762,500 2025 Salary: $795,000 2026 Salary: $2,400,000 2026 Stats: 113 G, 420 PA, .233/.311/.399 (.710 OPS), 16 HR, 14 2B, 0 3B, 43 RBI, 9.3 BB%, 30.7 K% Mets' depth at Catcher Luis Torrens: 40-man roster Hayden Senger: 40-man roster Minor Leagues: Kevin Parada, Chris Suero The primary internal factor complicating Alvarez's workload behind the plate is veteran backup catcher Luis Torrens, who remains secured on the roster. Rather than a late-inning or once-a-week defensive replacement, Torrens has become a legitimate alternative for manager Andy Green. Torrens hit nine home runs and drove in 41 runs over 91 games in 2026, posting a final slash line of .235/.295/.396. The Mets also have dependable upper-minor league depth with defensive specialist Hayden Senger providing a high-floor insurance policy. Also down the pipeline is former first-round pick Kevin Parada, though Chris Suero is the more notable prospect at this point in time. Furthermore, the ability to utilize Alvarez as a designated hitter is restricted considering the plethora of DH types on the Mets' roster. Alvarez's path to daily at-bats is tied to performance behind the dish, though his arbitration projection of $4-4.2 million is easy enough Why Francisco Alvarez Should Stay With Mets There's no circumstance in which he's going to be non-tendered, but Alvarez is a popular trade candidate for a reason. The foundational argument for retaining Alvarez rests on his rare combination of youth and power upside at a position where offensive production is notoriously scarce. Even in a down year in 2026, his underlying data remains solid. He registered an impressive 11.2% barrel rate and a 43.1% hard-hit rate while maintaining a slightly above average Isolated Power (ISO) of .166. Historically, catchers develop at a slower rate due to the physical toll and cognitive demand that game-calling requires. Oftentimes, a catcher's true offensive peak won't materialize until they are in their late twenties. Even though his 99 wRC+ and .313 wOBA don't look great on the surface, they are better than what league-average backstops produced in 2026. Trading or cutting bait on a catcher with this type of power floor and offensive potential is an unnecessary risk. At a projected salary raise that is easily affordable for the team's payroll, tendering him a contract ensures the Mets keep a high-ceiling, premium asset under team control during his prime years. That being said, there are serious flaws in his game that need to be addressed. The primary concern is his regression in plate discipline metrics, which oftentimes stalled rallies due to a highly problematic 34.2% chase rate and an elevated 15.8% SwStr% (swinging strike percentage). He's also still not the best defensive catcher, despite the progress he made this year. The ABS challenge system was especially problematic for Alvarez, where he was only successful in 47% of his challenges. Given all of that, perhaps it's no surprise Alvarez finished the 2026 season with an fWAR of 1.4, which was lower than Luis Torrens' fWAR of 2.1. Prediction Expect the Mets to tender Francisco Alvarez a contract for the 2027 season around the $4 million range. Despite his statistical steps backwards this year, his combination of age, position, and power ceiling make him an asset the Mets won't want to let go. View the full article

Francisco Alvarez signed with the New York Mets as a highly touted international free agent in 2018 and quickly worked his way through the farm system as a top prospect. During his first full season in 2023, Alvarez blasted 25 home runs across 123 games, solidifying his reputation as a power-hitting catcher and a vital spark plug for the franchise. His path over the last three seasons has been a story of volatility, heavily disrupted by injuries. In 2024, a severe left thumb forced him onto the IL for nearly two months. While he returned to hit .237 with 11 home runs and caught every game of the Mets' postseason run, he struggled to maintain consistency at the plate. A fractured hamate bone delayed his start in 2025, but he rebounded to post a career-high .787 OPS and a +122 OPS+ in 76 games. Alvarez stayed relatively healthy in 2026 as he logged 113 games, but his offensive output slipped back into an inconsistent pattern. He slashed .233/.311/.399 (.710 OPS) with 16 home runs and was right around league average with a 99 OPS+. While his raw power remains a threat, he also struck out at an alarming rate this season (30.7%). Because Alvarez qualified early for arbitration as a Super Two player prior to the 2026 season, he is already entering his second arbitration cycle at just 24 years old. Having played on a $2.4 million figure this past year, David Stearns and the front office now face a familiar evaluation, do they view Alvarez as a developing core piece, or has inconsistency opened a door to a more platoon-heavy future strategy? Francisco Alvarez's 2027 Arbitration Case 2023 Salary: $720,000 2024 Salary: $762,500 2025 Salary: $795,000 2026 Salary: $2,400,000 2026 Stats: 113 G, 420 PA, .233/.311/.399 (.710 OPS), 16 HR, 14 2B, 0 3B, 43 RBI, 9.3 BB%, 30.7 K% Mets' depth at Catcher Luis Torrens: 40-man roster Hayden Senger: 40-man roster Minor Leagues: Kevin Parada, Chris Suero The primary internal factor complicating Alvarez's workload behind the plate is veteran backup catcher Luis Torrens, who remains secured on the roster. Rather than a late-inning or once-a-week defensive replacement, Torrens has become a legitimate alternative for manager Andy Green. Torrens hit nine home runs and drove in 41 runs over 91 games in 2026, posting a final slash line of .235/.295/.396. The Mets also have dependable upper-minor league depth with defensive specialist Hayden Senger providing a high-floor insurance policy. Also down the pipeline is former first-round pick Kevin Parada, though Chris Suero is the more notable prospect at this point in time. Furthermore, the ability to utilize Alvarez as a designated hitter is restricted considering the plethora of DH types on the Mets' roster. Alvarez's path to daily at-bats is tied to performance behind the dish, though his arbitration projection of $4-4.2 million is easy enough Why Francisco Alvarez Should Stay With Mets There's no circumstance in which he's going to be non-tendered, but Alvarez is a popular trade candidate for a reason. The foundational argument for retaining Alvarez rests on his rare combination of youth and power upside at a position where offensive production is notoriously scarce. Even in a down year in 2026, his underlying data remains solid. He registered an impressive 11.2% barrel rate and a 43.1% hard-hit rate while maintaining a slightly above average Isolated Power (ISO) of .166. Historically, catchers develop at a slower rate due to the physical toll and cognitive demand that game-calling requires. Oftentimes, a catcher's true offensive peak won't materialize until they are in their late twenties. Even though his 99 wRC+ and .313 wOBA don't look great on the surface, they are better than what league-average backstops produced in 2026. Trading or cutting bait on a catcher with this type of power floor and offensive potential is an unnecessary risk. At a projected salary raise that is easily affordable for the team's payroll, tendering him a contract ensures the Mets keep a high-ceiling, premium asset under team control during his prime years. That being said, there are serious flaws in his game that need to be addressed. The primary concern is his regression in plate discipline metrics, which oftentimes stalled rallies due to a highly problematic 34.2% chase rate and an elevated 15.8% SwStr% (swinging strike percentage). He's also still not the best defensive catcher, despite the progress he made this year. The ABS challenge system was especially problematic for Alvarez, where he was only successful in 47% of his challenges. Given all of that, perhaps it's no surprise Alvarez finished the 2026 season with an fWAR of 1.4, which was lower than Luis Torrens' fWAR of 2.1. Prediction Expect the Mets to tender Francisco Alvarez a contract for the 2027 season around the $4 million range. Despite his statistical steps backwards this year, his combination of age, position, and power ceiling make him an asset the Mets won't want to let go. View the full article

The month of November will be a race to the finish line, not just for the Miami Marlins, but for all of Major League Baseball. The current collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1 at 11:59 p.m., with a work stoppage expected to follow. Once the lockout begins, no transactions can be made, and there will be no Winter Meetings or Rule 5 Draft. If the lockout extends deep into the offseason, Spring Training could also be in jeopardy. With that in mind, November figures to be a busy month across baseball, as teams look to take advantage of the current CBA and get business done before the deadline. Nobody knows what the landscape on the other side of the lockout will look like, creating an added sense of urgency for front offices across the league. Fish On First can confirm the reporting from the Miami Herald that the Marlins will be searching for a starting pitcher and reliever. If the opportunity arises, they may also target a position player. In terms of the team's top priorities, sources confirm the Marlins are searching for left-handed arms and right-handed bats. There are currently 35 players on the 40-man roster, 21 pitchers and 14 position players. With the five open roster spots on the 40-man, the expectation is that they will add a few Rule-5 Draft eligible players. Presumable locks include Karson Milbrandt (FOF No. 11), Eliazar Dishemy (No. 8), Brayden Taylor (No. 19) and Kemp Alderman (No. 13). There is a chance a sixth spot could open up on the 40-man roster with the non-tender deadline approaching on November 20. The most obvious non-tender candidate is left-handed reliever Andrew Nardi, who is expected to miss most, if not all, of the 2027 season while rehabbing from elbow surgery. The Marlins are targeting starting pitching in free agency, with the expectation that they will add at least one starter this offseason. The team has cast a wide net and remains engaged in ongoing discussions. Two names to keep an eye on are right-hander Dustin May and left-hander Patrick Sandoval. May, who is coming off his second World Series, made 31 starts between stints with the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers. He posted a 4.70 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 8.9 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. May, who was in Los Angeles Dodgers organization from 2019 up until midway through the 2025 season, crossed paths with Marlins manager Clayton McCullough and general manager Gabe Kapler. McCullough was the Minor League Field Coordinator while Kapler was the director of player development. May would find himself among some familiar faces in Miami if he were to sign in south beach. As for Sandoval, it's been a strange ride for him these last couple of years. In 2024, he made 16 starts before missing the rest of the season due to a left elbow strain. He underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2025 as well. In 2026, Sandoval signed with the Boston Red Sox, but his tenure there just lasted 15 games (13 starts) posting a 5.12 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 9.3 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9. Adding a left-handed pitcher for the Marlins is already a need, but to add it into the starting rotation would also be a major addition. This signing would be in hopes that Sandoval can regain the value that he had back in 2021 and 2022 where he was at his best. The top reliever in the free agent market is Adrian Morejon and the Marlins remain interested in him. In 2026, he posted a 2.83 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 11.20 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9 in 76 appearances, primarily as the eighth inning man, paving the way for lights out closer Mason Miller to pitch the ninth. Although Morejon would be of interest to the Marlins, he was not only offered the qualifying offer ($23.15M for one year), but he will maybe garner a long term deal within that price range. Two names the Marlins appear to have interest in are Sean Newcomb and Alex Vesia, two left-handers who fit within Miami's price range. Newcomb spent the 2026 season with the White Sox, making a career-high 60 appearances (90.1 IP) while recording a 3.09 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 8.37 K/9 and 3.39 BB/9. His four-seam fastball (7 RV) and slurve (5 RV) make him an intriguing fit for a Marlins bullpen in need of left-handed relief help. Alex Vesia seems to draw the Marlins' interest a hair more, according to sources. etc etc The Marlins could also be in the market for a catcher, though they would likely only pursue a backup if the right fit presents itself. Ideally, that player would be someone capable of handling 30–40 games per season, assuming Joe Mack remains healthy throughout the 2027 season. Another option is Agustin Ramirez backing up Mack. The organization believes that if Ramirez can hit at the level he did in 2025, then he can catch once or twice a week with Mack set to be with the Marlins primary catcher in 2027. In Ramirez's rookie season, he slashed .287/.287/.413/.701 with 21 home runs, 67 RBI and a 91 wRC+. So far, in a small sample size, he has reverse splits, where he hits same-sided pitching better than left-handed pitching (.720 OPS vs. RHP in 2025). Ramirez was working at first base when he was recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville, but they will give him every opportunity to catch as the backup to Mack. The Marlins, who are always listening on their players, will continue to do that this offseason. They will look to acquire high level prospects that can contribute in 2027. Over the past two season, Franklin Arias of the Boston Red Sox has been a name that's come up. At 20-years old, Arias is ranked as the top prospect in the Red Sox system per Baseball America and finds himself as the second best prospect on BA's top 100. In 2026, Arias finished in Triple-A. He slashed .323/.400/.557/.957 with 25 home runs, 91 RBI and a 145 wRC+ across Double-A and Triple-A. View the full article

Fish On First staffers react to the latest Miami Marlins news and rumors and prepare you for what lies ahead. Tuesday's show was hosted by Ely Sussman and featured panelist Kevin Barral. This podcast is brought to you by Jet Ski Rentals of South Florida—offering Miami’s best jet ski and boat adventures. With six jet ski locations and over 120 boats, there’s something for every style and every budget. They’re reservation-based only. To inquire, call 305-990-2192, or check them out online at SFJetskiRentals.com. Make sure to use promo code FISHONFIRST to receive 10% off your next booking. You can find Fish Unfiltered and Fish On First LIVE on the Fish On First YouTube channel, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever else you get your pods. Following the release of Bradley Blalock on Tuesday, the Marlins 40-man roster is down to 35 players. View the full article

Fish On First staffers react to the latest Miami Marlins news and rumors and prepare you for what lies ahead. Tuesday's show was hosted by Ely Sussman and featured panelist Kevin Barral. This podcast is brought to you by Jet Ski Rentals of South Florida—offering Miami’s best jet ski and boat adventures. With six jet ski locations and over 120 boats, there’s something for every style and every budget. They’re reservation-based only. To inquire, call 305-990-2192, or check them out online at SFJetskiRentals.com. Make sure to use promo code FISHONFIRST to receive 10% off your next booking. You can find Fish Unfiltered and Fish On First LIVE on the Fish On First YouTube channel, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever else you get your pods. Following the release of Bradley Blalock on Tuesday, the Marlins 40-man roster is down to 35 players. View the full article

Eleven pitchers threw at least 50 innings for the 2026 Minnesota Twins. Six of them—Taj Bradley, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Zebby Matthews, Taylor Rogers and Kody Funderburk—finished with ERAs that were essentially reflective of their fielder-independent skills, as measured by FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching). All six of those guys had FIPs within 0.20 of their ERAs. Of the other five hurlers, though, four had markedly worse ERAs than their FIPs would have predicted. Connor Prielipp's ERA was 1.14 worse than his FIP. Yoendrys Gómez's was 0.22 worse. Andrew Morris was 1.11 worse, and Travis Adams was 0.55 worse. Only Dean Kremer prevented runs better than his strikeout, walk and home-run rates would have predicted. He had a 3.48 ERA in his stint with Minnesota, against a 3.82 FIP. As a team, the Twins had a 4.23 FIP but a 4.56 ERA. The former ranked 20th in the majors; the latter ranked 25th. The failure to prevent runs as well as their pitchers' baseline skills suggested they should cost the Twins about six games in the standings; they missed the playoffs by seven games. One major reason why results fail to live up to pitchers' skills (at an individual or team level) is defensive support, and the Twins know they didn't offer their pitchers good defensive help in 2026. Brooks Lee was a great third baseman, but only moved there after six dreadful weeks at shortstop. The team didn't find an adequate defensive regular at short until mid-August, when they called up Kaelen Culpepper. Luke Keaschall began the season at second base, where he's a butcher. He's not good in the outfield, either, but moving him there mitigated the damage—too late for many Twins hurlers. Royce Lewis was a fine first baseman, but only landed there after a failure in his final trial at third base. Trevor Larnach is a bad defensive outfielder. Kody Clemens is a fine defender, but has limited range and arm strength and was often asked to do more than he's capable of—like playing center field, in one stretch. With Lee, Culpepper and Keaschall at the spots that suit them best and young legs (Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez) taking over in the outfield, the team is optimistic about their 2027 defense. That might improve the results their pitchers enjoy, on its own. However, pitching coach Pete Maki was still fired at the end of the season, and the team hired long-time Rays minor-league pitching coach Brian Reith to take his place. Why? Some of the answer might lie in those FIP gaps. At the end-of-year press conference, managers and executives always try to avoid saying anything about anything without being directly asked about it. It's just part of the modern team's information hygiene routine. They stay mum unless directly asked to comment on a topic, and when that happens, they try not to give away anything valuable. Jeremy Zoll made it most of the way through the press availability the team held just after the end of the regular season without breaking that rule. Here was his one wobble. "We spent a lot of time in spring talking about [how] we thought starting pitching was going to be our heartbeat," Zoll said, in response to a question about the depth of his rotation. "[We] fell short of that being true, and we need to go under the hood on these gaps between our FIP and our ERA over the last number of years, and the impact that defense is having on that, and some of the position changes we're having, but also to know that when you dream on what the rotation could look like for 2027, it's hard not to be extremely excited, knowing how strong of a foundation that would give us for the rest of the roster." No one had asked Zoll about the interaction between skills and results. That wasn't the thread of the conversation in which he was then engaged. He introduced that thought, which is telling. The Twins are concerned about the fact that their results on the mound don't match the talent they believe they've assembled. That's a big part of why Maki lost his job, and why Reith is here now. It's true that the Twins need to play better defense. Getting to more balls and converting the ones fielders reach into outs more reliably is a goal for every team, but it's especially important for teams who haven't done it well recently; that's the state of the Twins here in the fall of 2026. However, there are also ways for pitchers to affect the quality of contact they surrender and the likelihood of hits on balls in play against them, and if the team concluded that they haven't been doing enough to make their defense's job easier via savvy pitching, they reached the right conclusion—albeit a bit later than they should have. Pitchers' top objective is to miss bats. It's vital that hurlers have ways to induce weak contact (or at least to minimize hard contact) when batters do touch the ball, though, for two reasons: It's not always possible to strike people out; some contact is inevitable. The harder one has to try for a strikeout to get an out, the more susceptible one is to high pitch counts and walks, which are trouble of a different kind. We now have granular data on what happens when bat meets ball: where along the bat did the contact occur? Was it up the handle, or out on the end of the lumber? Did the hitter have the pitch timed up, and therefore have a good chance to hit the ball forward? Did they hit the top or the bottom of the ball? These are all valuable data, but one element controls exit velocity and the overall quality of contact most. It's the horizontal location of contact along the barrel. Getting a hitter to hit it off the end of the bat or up the handle a bit weakens contact and makes a hit much less likely. Last season, the Twins allowed the most centered contact on fastballs of any team in the majors. They were, simply, too much in the middle of hitters' sweet spots. That's because they've been one of the most four-seam-heavy teams in baseball over the last several seasons. They prefer a four-seamer to either of the other major fastball shapes—especially the sinker. Twins hurlers threw four-seamers on 33.5% of all their pitches in 2026. That's actually part of a downward trend, for them. As they lean ever more into breaking and offspeed stuff, the share of their pitches that were four-seamers has fallen steadily, from 41.8% in 2022 all the way to last year's number. However, the Rays are way ahead of them, on this front. They only threw four-seamers 27.2% of the time last season, and have been under 30% more often than over it in the seasons since the pandemic. Therefore, they were average in getting off the center of hitters' bats in 2026. Their team ERA (3.70) beat their FIP (4.04) by almost exactly the same margin by which the Twins' FIP beat their ERA. Reith won't be able to wave a magic wand over Twins hurlers and produce the same results. The Rays have better defenders than do the Twins, and they're the state of the art in defensive positioning—something the Twins did very poorly in 2026. The Twins also have a collection of pitchers who have developed and been taught to work with the four-seamer at the heart of their arsenal. Sinkers and cutters move off the center of hitters' bats better, though they also produce fewer whiffs than four-seamers do. Reith might be part of a change in pitching philosophy, but it won't be an overnight overhaul. Minnesota has to prevent runs better in 2027, and they need better results on contact to do it. That should and will start with better defense, but their pitchers can also induce contact that's more conducive to outs. Expect Reith to get them throwing more sinkers and/or cutters, whether that's by tinkering with a pitcher's mix or bringing in new arms with different arsenals. It's not time to abandon what the Twins have done well over the last few years, but they need to update their pitching paradigm. In Reith, they chose someone already familiar with the how and why of switching lanes (literally and figuratively) in the pursuit of better pitching outcomes. View the full article

The gratitude is palpable, and it's authentic. Jake Bauers and Trevor Megill are just the faces of a whole army of players whom the Brewers have picked up and made better over the last several seasons. In a slightly different world, it could have been Brandon Lockridge and Jared Koenig taking center stage at a championship rally late last week. It could have been Bryan Hudson or Bryse Wilson. It could have been Oliver Dunn or Eric Haase. Most of the time, when a player joins the Brewers organization, they get better; they get a real opportunity, often for the first time in their career; and they leave town very happy to have spent some time with the team. Most players feel that the team treats them well, compared to the other clubs for whom they worked. Most appreciate the advancement, and value the relationships. Yet, no two players of recent vintage capture the magic of the team better than Bauers and Megill. The pixie dust hasn't worn off on either. Each has gone from virtually anonymous to near-stardom. Each is going to get hugely rich at the end of his career, after each looked like he might have to give up on his dream (without fully establishing himself in the majors) at some time in the last few years. Their personalities are part of why they found such success, and they're part of why they were each retained and given enough chances to do so. They're also why each was so beloved, and all of that—plus their production itself, which begot plenty of love in return, from fans—led to them being loudly proud to be Brewers, and to their sounding nearly desperate to stay in remarks after the end of the Series and throughout the civic celebration. The question is this: Will the bonds that tie each to the organization and the community, deepened so much by the fact that they helped deliver the ultimate prize this fall, be enough to thwart the forces that would normally guide them out of town this winter? Bauers received the qualifying offer Monday afternoon, but by the end of the postseason, that was a no-brainer. Bauers remains a free agent, and if he wants to maximize his career earnings, he'll sign a multi-year deal this winter, rather than simply accepting the one-year QO. That highlights the key difference between the two cases. For Bauers, the decision is almost solely his. He can choose to pursue a deal that could be worth $70 million or more, and if he does, the Brewers are unlikely to be the ones to pay it. This is a simple test: How much is his love for his teammates and the city to which he brought a championship worth to Bauers? If he has another good season in 2027, he could make every bit as much money by taking the qualifying offer, but that's not guaranteed to anyone. To stay with the Brewers (be it by accepting the QO or taking some other below-market deal), he would have to accept less money than he has the opportunity to earn. He would have to make a willing sacrifice of earning power for happiness. Megill isn't so lucky. He doesn't get any real choice about whether he plays in Milwaukee next season or not; the team has that power. As a closer entering his final season of arbitration eligibility, Megill is set to earn a handsome salary, and after that, he'll be eligible for free agency. Typically, when this type of player reaches this point in their career, the Brewers trade them. Megill could fetch the team a solid prospect or two, much the way Devin Williams netted them Caleb Durbin and Nestor Cortes from the Yankees. Trading him would also create financial flexibility. It might make it easier, for instance, to sign a player like William Contreras or Brice Turang to a long-term extension, or to keep adding even if Bauers comes back on the QO. This time, it's the Brewers who have to answer the question: what is all that affection worth? It's not nothing. Megill became a part of the fabric of the clubhouse. His attitude and his aptitude are connected, and a player so dedicated to the team and its city is more likely to make the kinds of adjustments that turned around Megill's career than would be one who isn't wired that way. This isn't controversial, and it doesn't run against the Brewers' heavily analytical approach to team-building. They factor in the person when they evaluate a player and a decision. In Megill's case, though, they'd have to consider the intangibles to be exceptionally valuable to change the calculus. It's important that the team stay committed to its philosophy this winter. Start making exceptions, and it's often hard to tell where to stop. Bauers will get to decide (more or less) whether he becomes an exception, but the team holds the cards when it comes to Megill. The pair are just the tip of the iceberg. Winning the World Series is awesome; it's worth any amount of extra headaches that come with it. Those headaches do come, though. Things will get more complicated, and stay that way. Extra layers like these will be piled on most of their future decisions. If the front office is as good as they believe they are, they'll know better than to ignore those new layers. Instead, they'll have to incorporate them into a new, more complex paradigm. View the full article

The gratitude is palpable, and it's authentic. Jake Bauers and Trevor Megill are just the faces of a whole army of players whom the Brewers have picked up and made better over the last several seasons. In a slightly different world, it could have been Brandon Lockridge and Jared Koenig taking center stage at a championship rally late last week. It could have been Bryan Hudson or Bryse Wilson. It could have been Oliver Dunn or Eric Haase. Most of the time, when a player joins the Brewers organization, they get better; they get a real opportunity, often for the first time in their career; and they leave town very happy to have spent some time with the team. Most players feel that the team treats them well, compared to the other clubs for whom they worked. Most appreciate the advancement, and value the relationships. Yet, no two players of recent vintage capture the magic of the team better than Bauers and Megill. The pixie dust hasn't worn off on either. Each has gone from virtually anonymous to near-stardom. Each is going to get hugely rich at the end of his career, after each looked like he might have to give up on his dream (without fully establishing himself in the majors) at some time in the last few years. Their personalities are part of why they found such success, and they're part of why they were each retained and given enough chances to do so. They're also why each was so beloved, and all of that—plus their production itself, which begot plenty of love in return, from fans—led to them being loudly proud to be Brewers, and to their sounding nearly desperate to stay in remarks after the end of the Series and throughout the civic celebration. The question is this: Will the bonds that tie each to the organization and the community, deepened so much by the fact that they helped deliver the ultimate prize this fall, be enough to thwart the forces that would normally guide them out of town this winter? Bauers received the qualifying offer Monday afternoon, but by the end of the postseason, that was a no-brainer. Bauers remains a free agent, and if he wants to maximize his career earnings, he'll sign a multi-year deal this winter, rather than simply accepting the one-year QO. That highlights the key difference between the two cases. For Bauers, the decision is almost solely his. He can choose to pursue a deal that could be worth $70 million or more, and if he does, the Brewers are unlikely to be the ones to pay it. This is a simple test: How much is his love for his teammates and the city to which he brought a championship worth to Bauers? If he has another good season in 2027, he could make every bit as much money by taking the qualifying offer, but that's not guaranteed to anyone. To stay with the Brewers (be it by accepting the QO or taking some other below-market deal), he would have to accept less money than he has the opportunity to earn. He would have to make a willing sacrifice of earning power for happiness. Megill isn't so lucky. He doesn't get any real choice about whether he plays in Milwaukee next season or not; the team has that power. As a closer entering his final season of arbitration eligibility, Megill is set to earn a handsome salary, and after that, he'll be eligible for free agency. Typically, when this type of player reaches this point in their career, the Brewers trade them. Megill could fetch the team a solid prospect or two, much the way Devin Williams netted them Caleb Durbin and Nestor Cortes from the Yankees. Trading him would also create financial flexibility. It might make it easier, for instance, to sign a player like William Contreras or Brice Turang to a long-term extension, or to keep adding even if Bauers comes back on the QO. This time, it's the Brewers who have to answer the question: what is all that affection worth? It's not nothing. Megill became a part of the fabric of the clubhouse. His attitude and his aptitude are connected, and a player so dedicated to the team and its city is more likely to make the kinds of adjustments that turned around Megill's career than would be one who isn't wired that way. This isn't controversial, and it doesn't run against the Brewers' heavily analytical approach to team-building. They factor in the person when they evaluate a player and a decision. In Megill's case, though, they'd have to consider the intangibles to be exceptionally valuable to change the calculus. It's important that the team stay committed to its philosophy this winter. Start making exceptions, and it's often hard to tell where to stop. Bauers will get to decide (more or less) whether he becomes an exception, but the team holds the cards when it comes to Megill. The pair are just the tip of the iceberg. Winning the World Series is awesome; it's worth any amount of extra headaches that come with it. Those headaches do come, though. Things will get more complicated, and stay that way. Extra layers like these will be piled on most of their future decisions. If the front office is as good as they believe they are, they'll know better than to ignore those new layers. Instead, they'll have to incorporate them into a new, more complex paradigm. View the full article

When taking a look at Adrian Morejon’s free-agent picture recently, I made a statement about San Diego Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller having a “nuclear option” to not allow the prized left-handed reliever leave town: to use the qualifying offer. Well, Preller turned the key—with new owners Jose E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones doing the same with the other key—on that nuclear option. They put the ball in Morejon’s hands. Does Morejon want to stick around in 2027 for $23.15 million or hit the open market and get a career payday? He has until Nov. 17 to figure that out. While Morejon would love to remain with the only franchise he has known since signing for a record $11 million bonus in 2016 as an international free agent as a 17-year-old, he is currently at his most marketable position in his career. The 27-year-old is coming off his best season as he is eligible for free agency for the first time. His velocity was up from 97.6 mph in 2025 to 99.4 mph this year. He blew away his previous career high for strikeouts, punching out 107 this year after fanning 71 in 2024. He also made a career-high 76 appearances, fourth in MLB, and had 86 innings, easily beating his previous best of 73⅔ last year. His return would also bring back all but one member of the Padres' postseason bullpen: free-agent right-hander Jason Adam. That bullpen is the backbone of a franchise-record three consecutive trips to the postseason. There are more numbers that put him among the elite of MLB relievers. But the decision for Morejon isn’t about numbers at the moment. Well, at least not those types of numbers. No, the choice right now is what is the best move financially for Morejon. Why Adrian Morejon Should Accept The Qualifying Offer The biggest reason Morejon has to stay in San Diego is comfort. He knows what to expect from the Padres and the coaching staff. Yes, the $23.15 million is nice, too. That figure would make him the highest-paid reliever in MLB history, surpassing the $23,010,520 due Los Angeles Dodgers right-handed closer Edwin Diaz each of the next two years. Former Padres left-handed closer Josh Hader, now with the Houston Astros, is next at $19 million. The New York Yankees also gave their closer, right-hander David Bednar, the qualifying offer Monday. Morejon, unlike Diaz and Hader, is a true set-up man, and he can help elevate the market for non-closers by taking the qualifying offer. He then could benefit from that in a number of ways. He can pitch like he has the last three seasons, the only ones he has been a full-season member of the Padres’ bullpen and hit free agency again this time next year, without the burden of a qualifying offer (and without the time crunch that he faces this year with the lockout). Which is another reason for him to take the qualifying offer. The date of the lockout beginning is now less than a month away. Spending 10 or more days of that mulling whether to accept is wasting precious time, giving him about two weeks to get a lucrative deal from another contender, certainly making for a rushed process. Of course, those 10 days can be used to work out a contract with the Padres. Surely Preller and Morejon’s agency, Evolv Sports Management, have already discussed a three- or four-year deal. Morejon has been projected to receive a contract with an average annual value anywhere from between $14 million and $20 million. Evolv also represents two other Padres players, Manny Machado and Jeremiah Estrada, for what it's worth. One other—and not insignificant—reason to take the qualifying offer is Morejon’s health. The last we saw of Morejon, he was sitting in the Padres’ bullpen hoping for extra innings in Game 4 of the NL Division Series against the eventual World Series champion Milwaukee Brewers. He was warmed up and ready to come in had the Friars tied the game. But before that, Morejon’s last action was the two innings he pitched in Game 1 of that series in which he gave up the go-ahead homer to William Contreras. Manager Craig Stammen would later reveal that Morejon couldn’t get his shoulder loose for either Games 2 or 3. The fact that he didn’t pitch in Game 4 calls into question whether he truly would have come in. That will be a question he will have to answer to each team that wants to sign him, prompting more medical scrutiny. Of course, the Padres know full well the status of Morejon’s shoulder, removing that part of the equation if he opts to re-sign or take the QO. Lastly, the types of teams that will come after Morejon will be contenders that will be spending on other big-name free agents, some of whom will have received the qualifying offer like Morejon. The Philadelphia Phillies are one that comes to mind. The Phillies may also be pursuing outfielder Randy Arozarena, left-handed starter Trevor Rogers or right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Signing teams will have to give up draft-pick compensation based on whether they are a luxury-tax payor. Signing one player can strip a team of two valuable draft picks. Doing that for two players ore more players is extremely rate, the draft capital often being too steep. Why Adrian Morejon Should Reject The Qualifying Offer MLB players typically get one good payday throughout their careers. A reliever of Morejon’s quality could get a second considering he will turn 28 a month before the scheduled Opening Day for 2027. The competition to sign him will be fierce, especially in a reduced window due to the lockout. Some team will offer Morejon four or even five years for a good price, which would allow for him to hit free agency for a second time following his age-31 or age-32 season. That's plenty of time for another good contract. If, say, Morejon gets an AAV of between $15 million and $18 million, it could be as a closer, a role he would not fulfill with the Padres for at least two if not three years, depending on how the new collective-bargaining agreement treats the arbitration process in years to come, which would affect current closer Mason Miller. Miller is projected to make $8.1 million in 2027, per MLB Trade Rumors, and will increase significantly in the next two years of arbitration. That is quite a chunk of change for two relievers. Morejon may also have the desire to start again, which he could do with the Padres as well. Eight of his first 16 career games were as a starter. But he had Tommy John surgery in April 2021, coming back in June 2022. He has been a reliever ever since, and his success in the role might make any talk of a transition back to starting a moot point. What Will Adrian Morejon Do? Bringing back Morejon was always the top priority of the Preller and the Padres. It would, at least in a small way, back up the claim of Feliciano and Jones of being all-in and giving the Friar Faithful something to latch onto before the dark days of the lockout hit. If no new deal is reached, there's a very good chance Morejon will return for 2027 on the $23.15 million qualifying offer, giving him and the Padres another year to figure out their future together. View the full article

When taking a look at Adrian Morejon’s free-agent picture recently, I made a statement about San Diego Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller having a “nuclear option” to not allow the prized left-handed reliever leave town: to use the qualifying offer. Well, Preller turned the key—with new owners Jose E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones doing the same with the other key—on that nuclear option. They put the ball in Morejon’s hands. Does Morejon want to stick around in 2027 for $23.15 million or hit the open market and get a career payday? He has until Nov. 17 to figure that out. While Morejon would love to remain with the only franchise he has known since signing for a record $11 million bonus in 2016 as an international free agent as a 17-year-old, he is currently at his most marketable position in his career. The 27-year-old is coming off his best season as he is eligible for free agency for the first time. His velocity was up from 97.6 mph in 2025 to 99.4 mph this year. He blew away his previous career high for strikeouts, punching out 107 this year after fanning 71 in 2024. He also made a career-high 76 appearances, fourth in MLB, and had 86 innings, easily beating his previous best of 73⅔ last year. His return would also bring back all but one member of the Padres' postseason bullpen: free-agent right-hander Jason Adam. That bullpen is the backbone of a franchise-record three consecutive trips to the postseason. There are more numbers that put him among the elite of MLB relievers. But the decision for Morejon isn’t about numbers at the moment. Well, at least not those types of numbers. No, the choice right now is what is the best move financially for Morejon. Why Adrian Morejon Should Accept The Qualifying Offer The biggest reason Morejon has to stay in San Diego is comfort. He knows what to expect from the Padres and the coaching staff. Yes, the $23.15 million is nice, too. That figure would make him the highest-paid reliever in MLB history, surpassing the $23,010,520 due Los Angeles Dodgers right-handed closer Edwin Diaz each of the next two years. Former Padres left-handed closer Josh Hader, now with the Houston Astros, is next at $19 million. The New York Yankees also gave their closer, right-hander David Bednar, the qualifying offer Monday. Morejon, unlike Diaz and Hader, is a true set-up man, and he can help elevate the market for non-closers by taking the qualifying offer. He then could benefit from that in a number of ways. He can pitch like he has the last three seasons, the only ones he has been a full-season member of the Padres’ bullpen and hit free agency again this time next year, without the burden of a qualifying offer (and without the time crunch that he faces this year with the lockout). Which is another reason for him to take the qualifying offer. The date of the lockout beginning is now less than a month away. Spending 10 or more days of that mulling whether to accept is wasting precious time, giving him about two weeks to get a lucrative deal from another contender, certainly making for a rushed process. Of course, those 10 days can be used to work out a contract with the Padres. Surely Preller and Morejon’s agency, Evolv Sports Management, have already discussed a three- or four-year deal. Morejon has been projected to receive a contract with an average annual value anywhere from between $14 million and $20 million. Evolv also represents two other Padres players, Manny Machado and Jeremiah Estrada, for what it's worth. One other—and not insignificant—reason to take the qualifying offer is Morejon’s health. The last we saw of Morejon, he was sitting in the Padres’ bullpen hoping for extra innings in Game 4 of the NL Division Series against the eventual World Series champion Milwaukee Brewers. He was warmed up and ready to come in had the Friars tied the game. But before that, Morejon’s last action was the two innings he pitched in Game 1 of that series in which he gave up the go-ahead homer to William Contreras. Manager Craig Stammen would later reveal that Morejon couldn’t get his shoulder loose for either Games 2 or 3. The fact that he didn’t pitch in Game 4 calls into question whether he truly would have come in. That will be a question he will have to answer to each team that wants to sign him, prompting more medical scrutiny. Of course, the Padres know full well the status of Morejon’s shoulder, removing that part of the equation if he opts to re-sign or take the QO. Lastly, the types of teams that will come after Morejon will be contenders that will be spending on other big-name free agents, some of whom will have received the qualifying offer like Morejon. The Philadelphia Phillies are one that comes to mind. The Phillies may also be pursuing outfielder Randy Arozarena, left-handed starter Trevor Rogers or right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Signing teams will have to give up draft-pick compensation based on whether they are a luxury-tax payor. Signing one player can strip a team of two valuable draft picks. Doing that for two players ore more players is extremely rate, the draft capital often being too steep. Why Adrian Morejon Should Reject The Qualifying Offer MLB players typically get one good payday throughout their careers. A reliever of Morejon’s quality could get a second considering he will turn 28 a month before the scheduled Opening Day for 2027. The competition to sign him will be fierce, especially in a reduced window due to the lockout. Some team will offer Morejon four or even five years for a good price, which would allow for him to hit free agency for a second time following his age-31 or age-32 season. That's plenty of time for another good contract. If, say, Morejon gets an AAV of between $15 million and $18 million, it could be as a closer, a role he would not fulfill with the Padres for at least two if not three years, depending on how the new collective-bargaining agreement treats the arbitration process in years to come, which would affect current closer Mason Miller. Miller is projected to make $8.1 million in 2027, per MLB Trade Rumors, and will increase significantly in the next two years of arbitration. That is quite a chunk of change for two relievers. Morejon may also have the desire to start again, which he could do with the Padres as well. Eight of his first 16 career games were as a starter. But he had Tommy John surgery in April 2021, coming back in June 2022. He has been a reliever ever since, and his success in the role might make any talk of a transition back to starting a moot point. What Will Adrian Morejon Do? Bringing back Morejon was always the top priority of the Preller and the Padres. It would, at least in a small way, back up the claim of Feliciano and Jones of being all-in and giving the Friar Faithful something to latch onto before the dark days of the lockout hit. If no new deal is reached, there's a very good chance Morejon will return for 2027 on the $23.15 million qualifying offer, giving him and the Padres another year to figure out their future together. View the full article

The last time Major League Baseball experienced a lockout, November became a race for teams to get as many deals completed as possible. With the Collective Bargaining Agreement set to expire on December 1, 2021, front offices worked quickly to finalize contracts before the offseason came to a sudden halt. For the most part, the Minnesota Twins took a patient approach. They had some important decisions to make after finishing 73-89 and landing in last place in the American League Central. The organization addressed two areas before the lockout, but its biggest moves came after baseball returned. Before the Lockout Minnesota's biggest priority was figuring out Byron Buxton's future. The star center fielder was entering his final year of team control, and his injury history made contract negotiations complicated. However, the two sides found common ground, agreeing to a seven-year, $100 million extension that would keep Buxton in Minnesota through the 2028 season. It was a significant commitment to a player with enormous potential but considerable availability concerns. Buxton had hit .306 with 19 home runs and a 1.005 OPS in only 61 games during the 2021 season. The Twins were betting on his ability to produce when on the field while also securing one of the most talented players in franchise history. Minnesota also looked to improve its starting rotation by adding Dylan Bundy on a one-year contract with a club option for 2023. Bundy was coming off a difficult season with the Los Angeles Angels, posting a 6.06 ERA across 23 appearances. However, he had finished ninth in American League Cy Young voting in 2020, giving the Twins some potential upside if he could recapture that form. Those were the primary additions before the lockout. The Twins had secured their franchise center fielder and added a veteran starting pitcher, but plenty of questions remained about the roster. Coming Out of the Lockout During the 2021-22 lockout, MLB prohibited clubs from discussing potential trades with one another. However, front offices had an opportunity to establish trade frameworks before the work stoppage began. Those earlier discussions could be revisited and finalized once the lockout ended. Teams also had plenty of time to evaluate possible deals and determine which players might become available. When baseball finally returned in March, the Twins wasted little time addressing their biggest needs. Their first major pitching addition came through a trade with the Cincinnati Reds. Minnesota acquired Sonny Gray and minor league pitcher Francis Peguero in exchange for pitching prospect Chase Petty. Gray immediately gave the rotation an experienced arm capable of taking the ball near the top of the staff. After another disappointing season, the Twins finally had a veteran they could count on to help stabilize their pitching staff. The organization then made one of the biggest free-agent splashes in franchise history. Minnesota signed shortstop Carlos Correa to a three-year, $105.3 million contract. The deal included opt-outs after the first and second seasons, but it gave the Twins an unexpected superstar addition. Correa had been one of the top players available on the free-agent market, and his arrival dramatically changed expectations for the team. Minnesota wasn't finished adding pitching. The Twins signed Chris Archer to a one-year contract to provide additional rotation depth. The former All-Star came with some health questions, but the organization believed he still had enough upside to contribute. The final major addition came right before Opening Day. Minnesota traded closer Taylor Rogers, outfielder Brent Rooker, and cash considerations to San Diego for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan, and a player to be named later (Brayan Medina). Paddack offered another controllable starting option, while Pagan had late inning bullpen experience. The move also represented a significant departure for Rogers, who had been a reliable part of Minnesota's relief corps. The Bigger Impact Came in 2023 Looking back, the Gray and Correa additions might not have delivered the immediate team success the Twins wanted in 2022. Minnesota finished 78-84 and missed the postseason. However, it would be unfair to say either player failed to live up to expectations individually. Correa hit .291 with 22 home runs and an .834 OPS across 136 games. Gray posted a 3.08 ERA in 24 starts, giving Minnesota a dependable starting pitcher. The problem was that the rest of the roster couldn't consistently perform well enough to turn those individual contributions into a playoff berth. There was also some uncertainty surrounding Correa's future. After the season, he exercised his opt-out clause and briefly appeared headed elsewhere. He agreed to massive contracts with San Francisco and New York, but concerns during physical examinations prevented either deal from becoming official. Minnesota eventually brought him back on a six-year, $200 million contract in January 2023. That decision proved to be another important piece of the organization's next chapter. Gray also continued to provide tremendous value. In 2023, he turned in one of the best seasons of his career, posting a 2.79 ERA across 32 starts. He struck out 183 batters in 184 innings and finished second in American League Cy Young voting. The trade that initially helped stabilize the rotation had produced an ace-level season. Correa's return gave the Twins an established veteran presence at shortstop and a player with significant postseason experience. His offensive numbers dipped in 2023, but his defense, leadership, and October experience remained important parts of the club's identity. Together, those moves helped lay the foundation for a much better team. Minnesota finished 87-75, captured the AL Central title, and finally had the pieces to compete in October. The biggest moment came against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series. On October 3, 2023, the Twins defeated Toronto 3-1 to snap their 18-game postseason losing streak. Minnesota followed that victory with another win to sweep the series and advance to the ALDS. It marked the organization's first postseason series victory since 2002. The Twins had gone from a last-place team in 2021 to a division champion that finally broke one of baseball's most frustrating postseason streaks. Gray and Correa weren't the only reasons for that turnaround, but their additions played a significant role in changing the organization's direction. Looking Back and Forward The Twins' approach during the last lockout offers an interesting look at how quickly an offseason can change. Minnesota didn't make a massive splash in November, but the organization was much more aggressive once the new CBA was finalized. The additions of Gray, Correa, Archer, Paddack, and Pagan completely changed the team's outlook heading into the 2022 season. Not every move worked out perfectly, but the front office demonstrated a willingness to be aggressive when opportunities became available. More importantly, the Gray and Correa moves provided lasting value beyond their first season in Minnesota. Gray became a Cy Young runner-up, Correa returned on a long-term contract, and the two helped form the foundation of a team that brought postseason success back to Minnesota in 2023. With another labor deadline approaching, Twins fans have a recent example of why the offseason doesn't necessarily need to be judged by what happens before a potential work stoppage. Sometimes, the most important work happens after baseball gets back to business. What stands out about how the Twins approached the last lockout? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

I've become a broken record on this: the Cubs are a big-market team with big-market dreams, and they should be held to a standard befitting that status. That means they should spend big money each offseason to make their club better, and as they head into an offseason chock-full of big decisions, it means they should be extremely aggressive—not just financially, but in their embrace of some risk and the restructuring of a roster that has not kept up with the Brewers for the last decade. To sketch out such a busy winter, I turned to our Offseason Blueprint tool, wherein you can build your ideal Cubs roster for 2027 one piece at a time. Check it out and build your own blueprint, but in the meantime, here's mine. A Trio of Reunions: Re-Signing Players on Whom the Cubs Can't Improve One of the harsh realities of this particular offseason is that the free-agent class is not rich with great choices, particularly on the position-player side. I therefore started my blueprint by forecasting re-ups between the Cubs and three role players who were important to the 2026 team, to set a solid floor for their roster-building. I slotted in Carson Kelly, whom the tool prices at $11 million per year. (I think that's a little high, but it's close enough.) This is not, in my opinion, an especially likely reunion. Nor is it an ideal solution at catcher. I've written about this already. I think the Cubs should be looking for the next version of Kelly, on whom they got a great deal two winters ago, rather than either re-signing Kelly or turning the position over to overhyped prospect Owen Ayers. An updated version of Kelly from two years ago really isn't out there, though, and the Cubs seem to believe much more than I do in Ayers, so I expect them to sign a lower-level backstop and go into the season with Miguel Amaya and Ayers as Plan A behind the plate. On balance, I think they'd be better off sticking with Kelly for a bit longer, at least as a failsafe. It would be relatively easy, should Ayers work out the way the team believes he will, to jettison Amaya, so there's little risk of a real (or certainly a problematic) surplus. I also advocate for the team bringing back two players they acquired from the Mets this summer: outfielder Tyrone Taylor and left-handed pitcher David Peterson. Taylor is a great fit for a roster that features a lefty-batting primary center fielder, in Pete Crow-Armstrong. He can also fill in admirably in the corners; he's just good enough to trust as an injury fill-in regular. For reasons that will become clear later, filling an outfield slot with a trustworthy right-handed bat was important. Peterson, meanwhile, made tangible improvements after joining the Cubs and should have drawn a playoff start. He should fit solidly into the fourth spot in the team's rotation, if things go well. The First Big Splash: A Big Bid on a Posted Slugger It's unlikely that Teruaki Sato will break the bank. He seems positioned for a deal similar to the one signed by Seiya Suzuki five winters ago, when the Cubs nabbed Suzuki on a five-year deal worth $85 million. (They also paid Suzuki's NPB team, the Hiroshima Carp, over $14 million as a posting fee, so their total investment in Suzuki was approximately $100 million.) Sato ranks ninth on our DiamondCentric free agent list. MLB Trade Rumors projects that he'll sign for $80 million over five years; FanGraphs projects $100 million over the same term. Suzuki was a slightly safer candidate to bring his productive bat to the American majors. He turned 28 in August of his first year Stateside; Sato will turn 28 next March. Suzuki put up a better OPS and (crucially) better strikeout and walk figures in his final seasons in Japan than Sato did. Sato has been compared more often to Munetaka Murakami, the biggest name among Japanese hitters who came over last winter, whose swing-and-miss issues limited his market. For many outsiders, what's buoying Sato's market is merely the fact that Murakami outperformed the modest two-year deal he signed with the White Sox last offseason. I know our Jason Ross is not a big believer in Sato, but I am. Though he's more aggressive than Murakami (or Suzuki), Sato has much better feel for contact than Murakami did in his final years in Japan. Watching him, I see a more flexible swing and a quieter operation, and that was reflected in his in-zone contact rates in NPB. Sato also handles breaking stuff well. He might have to make some difficult adjustments to handle the velocity common in MLB, but I believe he'll hit almost as well as Suzuki did over his first five big-league seasons. Sato is a lefty batter, like Murakami, and like Murakami, he played third base more than any other position during his time in NPB. Evaluators expect him to play more first base in the States, but I think the Cubs should make a big bid and reel him in to become their starting right fielder. If he doesn't work out there but his bat is solid, he might also be able to take over for Michael Busch, should the latter continue to underperform at first. (A quick note on Busch, while we're here, because I keep hearing whispers along these lines: No, he can't play anywhere but first base. He's not a good enough athlete or a skilled enough defender to play even a corner outfield spot. It's a flat, firm no. He's a first baseman, and if his bat isn't good enough to be a plus first baseman, he simply won't be an above-average player. Accept that. Acknowledge it. Your hope for him has to stay tightly focused on the recovery of his power in 2027 and beyond.) The Much-Needed Shakeup: Trades for Joe Ryan and Yandy Díaz This is not a pleasant thought, but the fact is that the Cubs' window is not wide-open. They're not starting a competitive cycle; they're nearing the end of one. It's time, therefore, for a big move whereby the team cashes in some long-term, low-intensity value for players who can help them make the most of the 2027 season. I suggest two separate deals in which the team recoups some of the talent it's losing via free agency this year, while moving players whose value will always be higher for other teams than for Chicago. That means trading Pedro Ramírez and Kevin Alcántara to the Twins for starting pitcher Joe Ryan. With a cadre of star infielders locked up on long-term deals, moving Ramírez on the heels of his strong rookie campaign could allow Chicago to pick up a two-time All-Star hurler with frontline starting upside. Ryan has a 3.79 career ERA and a 27.3% career strikeout rate. He's been much, much better before the All-Star break than after it, throughout his career, so the team needs to deal for him with a plan in mind. He should be lightly used early in the season, so he can be healthy and fresh come September and October. Do that, though, and Ryan is a perfectly strong playoff-caliber starter. Should he fail again down the stretch, the Cubs would (hopefully) be able to turn to the likes of Cade Horton and/or Ben Brown, whose injury issues make them impossible to count on for the first half but who could be brought along slowly to prepare them for high-value appearances next fall. It also means trading Matt Shaw (and, inevitably, something else) for Yandy Díaz of the Rays. Díaz is getting old. He's under contract for just one more year (like Ryan), and he'll cost $13 million. On the other hand, he's an on-base ace and a righty bat with above-average raw power. He would bring balance and reliability to the top half of the Cubs lineup. Tying up the designated hitter spot is suboptimal, perhaps, but too many teams let that stop them from fielding a hitter as solid as Díaz. Shaw is still under team control for five more seasons, but he's never going to be an above-average corner outfielder, and the Cubs are committed to Nico Hoerner and Alex Bregman at the only other positions Shaw might plausibly play. They should swap him for Díaz and accept the fact that they're all-in. The Big-Money Ace So far, we've reinforced the rotation and the lineup, but you've been waiting for the big name and the big dollars. Where can the team realistically try to turn the corner from Wild Card contenders to serious October threats? You've waited long enough. Let's talk about Michael King. The Cubs have been interested in King for a long time. I propose that they be the ones to land him this time, adding roughly $30 million in annual average value to their payroll on a three- or four-year deal. King opted out of his contract with the Padres this fall, after shutting down the Cubs in impressive fashion in late September and ending their season. He's not the household name or the reliable workhorse that Tarik Skubal is, but that's why he'll cost far, far less than Skubal will. Ideally, perhaps, the Cubs would be in on Skubal. Ideally, they'd also have much better depth already, so that Skubal could be the capstone on a championship-caliber roster. That's not where they stand as the offseason gets underway, Therefore, they need to turn their attention to King, instead. They can land him without being left hamstrung as they pursue other improvements. 3 More Important Insurance Policies In theory, you could almost call the above a complete offseason plan. Make the moves enumerated here, and the 2027 Cubs would go: Lineup Yandy Díaz - DH Pete Crow-Armstrong - CF Alex Bregman - 3B Teruaki Sato - RF Michael Busch - 1B Nico Hoerner - 2B Carson Kelly - C Tyrone Taylor - LF Dansby Swanson - SS Bench Miguel Amaya Gabriel Arias James Triantos Starting Rotation Michael King Joe Ryan David Peterson Justin Steele Edward Cabrera Bullpen Ryan Zeferjahn Daniel Palencia Ryan Rolison Jacob Webb Shelby Miller Eric Orze Phil Maton Riley Martin That's respectable. Whether it's better than 2026 is debatable, but this team is losing not only a slew of starting pitchers (Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman, plus the fact that Horton and Brown now exist under a cloud of injury worry) but Suzuki and Ian Happ, which meant it was always going to be hard to get back even to last year's level. However, I see three major weak points that still need to be addressed. First, the outfield isn't robust enough. There's not even really a backup listed here, with Shaw and Alcántara shipped out of town and Taylor forced into the starting lineup. The Cubs need someone akin to 2026 Michael Conforto, pushing Taylor to the bench a majority of the time, but it shouldn't be Conforto himself; doubling down on veteran finds like that is a bad idea. The starting rotation also isn't deep enough. Steele and Cabrera are better as names than as actual pitchers right now. Behind them lurk Brown and Javier Assad, plus (around July, you hope) Horton, as well as some other underwhelming options, but the Cubs need more depth. More depth means people can step in when injuries happen. It also means they can stretch the rotation to six hurlers more often, which is important for keeping the guys who are healthy fresh and available come the end of the year. Finally, the bullpen needs another sturdy arm. Counting on anything from Maton (whatever his remaining upside if he comes back healthy after knee surgery) feels foolish. Therefore, I have the team making three more free-agent moves. Jake Fraley is no great shakes. If he's your starting outfielder, you're always looking for the chance to upgrade that spot. However, as a platoon partner for Taylor, the Cubs could do much worse. Fraley missed much of 2026 due to sports hernia surgery, which should keep his market very tame. He's a step better than Conforto was perceived to be last winter; the team would have to guarantee him a roster spot and a seven-figure salary. They should do it. He's the right kind of gamble, as a complement to bigger moves like signing Sato and trading for Díaz. Kris Bubic would increase the team's susceptibility to an injury crisis in the rotation. So be it. He's also one of the highest-upside non-premium arms on this year's free-agent market. The southpaw would be a perfect final ingredient along with Ryan, King and the return of Peterson. The team would have so much starting depth that they'd end up struggling to juggle it, if everyone got and stayed healthy for a prolonged period, but if the Cubs don't plan to do that difficult balancing act, they'll end up doing a tougher, worse one: scrambling to find help when they suddenly don't have enough arms to field a rotation. Finally, the team should scoop up semi-disgraced slider monster Kevin Ginkel. The surface-level numbers turned sour in Ginkel's walk year with Arizona, but his slider still misses bats at an exceptional rate. Add him to a mix that features Zeferjahn, Palencia and Rolison, and you have a sturdy back end of the bullpen, after all. This would be a phenomenally expensive team. The Cubs would be over the second luxury-tax threshold, unless some major changes come to the collective bargaining agreement. They would also be stuck hoping for a lot of success in a short period; their outlook beyond 2027 would be somewhat dimmed. But if the team wants to go from where they are to where they want to be, they have to accept those tradeoffs. It's time to go for it, if only because they have no real alternative—and because the way things are now should be unsatisfactory to almost all Cubs fans. View the full article

I've become a broken record on this: the Cubs are a big-market team with big-market dreams, and they should be held to a standard befitting that status. That means they should spend big money each offseason to make their club better, and as they head into an offseason chock-full of big decisions, it means they should be extremely aggressive—not just financially, but in their embrace of some risk and the restructuring of a roster that has not kept up with the Brewers for the last decade. To sketch out such a busy winter, I turned to our Offseason Blueprint tool, wherein you can build your ideal Cubs roster for 2027 one piece at a time. Check it out and build your own blueprint, but in the meantime, here's mine. A Trio of Reunions: Re-Signing Players on Whom the Cubs Can't Improve One of the harsh realities of this particular offseason is that the free-agent class is not rich with great choices, particularly on the position-player side. I therefore started my blueprint by forecasting re-ups between the Cubs and three role players who were important to the 2026 team, to set a solid floor for their roster-building. I slotted in Carson Kelly, whom the tool prices at $11 million per year. (I think that's a little high, but it's close enough.) This is not, in my opinion, an especially likely reunion. Nor is it an ideal solution at catcher. I've written about this already. I think the Cubs should be looking for the next version of Kelly, on whom they got a great deal two winters ago, rather than either re-signing Kelly or turning the position over to overhyped prospect Owen Ayers. An updated version of Kelly from two years ago really isn't out there, though, and the Cubs seem to believe much more than I do in Ayers, so I expect them to sign a lower-level backstop and go into the season with Miguel Amaya and Ayers as Plan A behind the plate. On balance, I think they'd be better off sticking with Kelly for a bit longer, at least as a failsafe. It would be relatively easy, should Ayers work out the way the team believes he will, to jettison Amaya, so there's little risk of a real (or certainly a problematic) surplus. I also advocate for the team bringing back two players they acquired from the Mets this summer: outfielder Tyrone Taylor and left-handed pitcher David Peterson. Taylor is a great fit for a roster that features a lefty-batting primary center fielder, in Pete Crow-Armstrong. He can also fill in admirably in the corners; he's just good enough to trust as an injury fill-in regular. For reasons that will become clear later, filling an outfield slot with a trustworthy right-handed bat was important. Peterson, meanwhile, made tangible improvements after joining the Cubs and should have drawn a playoff start. He should fit solidly into the fourth spot in the team's rotation, if things go well. The First Big Splash: A Big Bid on a Posted Slugger It's unlikely that Teruaki Sato will break the bank. He seems positioned for a deal similar to the one signed by Seiya Suzuki five winters ago, when the Cubs nabbed Suzuki on a five-year deal worth $85 million. (They also paid Suzuki's NPB team, the Hiroshima Carp, over $14 million as a posting fee, so their total investment in Suzuki was approximately $100 million.) Sato ranks ninth on our DiamondCentric free agent list. MLB Trade Rumors projects that he'll sign for $80 million over five years; FanGraphs projects $100 million over the same term. Suzuki was a slightly safer candidate to bring his productive bat to the American majors. He turned 28 in August of his first year Stateside; Sato will turn 28 next March. Suzuki put up a better OPS and (crucially) better strikeout and walk figures in his final seasons in Japan than Sato did. Sato has been compared more often to Munetaka Murakami, the biggest name among Japanese hitters who came over last winter, whose swing-and-miss issues limited his market. For many outsiders, what's buoying Sato's market is merely the fact that Murakami outperformed the modest two-year deal he signed with the White Sox last offseason. I know our Jason Ross is not a big believer in Sato, but I am. Though he's more aggressive than Murakami (or Suzuki), Sato has much better feel for contact than Murakami did in his final years in Japan. Watching him, I see a more flexible swing and a quieter operation, and that was reflected in his in-zone contact rates in NPB. Sato also handles breaking stuff well. He might have to make some difficult adjustments to handle the velocity common in MLB, but I believe he'll hit almost as well as Suzuki did over his first five big-league seasons. Sato is a lefty batter, like Murakami, and like Murakami, he played third base more than any other position during his time in NPB. Evaluators expect him to play more first base in the States, but I think the Cubs should make a big bid and reel him in to become their starting right fielder. If he doesn't work out there but his bat is solid, he might also be able to take over for Michael Busch, should the latter continue to underperform at first. (A quick note on Busch, while we're here, because I keep hearing whispers along these lines: No, he can't play anywhere but first base. He's not a good enough athlete or a skilled enough defender to play even a corner outfield spot. It's a flat, firm no. He's a first baseman, and if his bat isn't good enough to be a plus first baseman, he simply won't be an above-average player. Accept that. Acknowledge it. Your hope for him has to stay tightly focused on the recovery of his power in 2027 and beyond.) The Much-Needed Shakeup: Trades for Joe Ryan and Yandy Díaz This is not a pleasant thought, but the fact is that the Cubs' window is not wide-open. They're not starting a competitive cycle; they're nearing the end of one. It's time, therefore, for a big move whereby the team cashes in some long-term, low-intensity value for players who can help them make the most of the 2027 season. I suggest two separate deals in which the team recoups some of the talent it's losing via free agency this year, while moving players whose value will always be higher for other teams than for Chicago. That means trading Pedro Ramírez and Kevin Alcántara to the Twins for starting pitcher Joe Ryan. With a cadre of star infielders locked up on long-term deals, moving Ramírez on the heels of his strong rookie campaign could allow Chicago to pick up a two-time All-Star hurler with frontline starting upside. Ryan has a 3.79 career ERA and a 27.3% career strikeout rate. He's been much, much better before the All-Star break than after it, throughout his career, so the team needs to deal for him with a plan in mind. He should be lightly used early in the season, so he can be healthy and fresh come September and October. Do that, though, and Ryan is a perfectly strong playoff-caliber starter. Should he fail again down the stretch, the Cubs would (hopefully) be able to turn to the likes of Cade Horton and/or Ben Brown, whose injury issues make them impossible to count on for the first half but who could be brought along slowly to prepare them for high-value appearances next fall. It also means trading Matt Shaw (and, inevitably, something else) for Yandy Díaz of the Rays. Díaz is getting old. He's under contract for just one more year (like Ryan), and he'll cost $13 million. On the other hand, he's an on-base ace and a righty bat with above-average raw power. He would bring balance and reliability to the top half of the Cubs lineup. Tying up the designated hitter spot is suboptimal, perhaps, but too many teams let that stop them from fielding a hitter as solid as Díaz. Shaw is still under team control for five more seasons, but he's never going to be an above-average corner outfielder, and the Cubs are committed to Nico Hoerner and Alex Bregman at the only other positions Shaw might plausibly play. They should swap him for Díaz and accept the fact that they're all-in. The Big-Money Ace So far, we've reinforced the rotation and the lineup, but you've been waiting for the big name and the big dollars. Where can the team realistically try to turn the corner from Wild Card contenders to serious October threats? You've waited long enough. Let's talk about Michael King. The Cubs have been interested in King for a long time. I propose that they be the ones to land him this time, adding roughly $30 million in annual average value to their payroll on a three- or four-year deal. King opted out of his contract with the Padres this fall, after shutting down the Cubs in impressive fashion in late September and ending their season. He's not the household name or the reliable workhorse that Tarik Skubal is, but that's why he'll cost far, far less than Skubal will. Ideally, perhaps, the Cubs would be in on Skubal. Ideally, they'd also have much better depth already, so that Skubal could be the capstone on a championship-caliber roster. That's not where they stand as the offseason gets underway, Therefore, they need to turn their attention to King, instead. They can land him without being left hamstrung as they pursue other improvements. 3 More Important Insurance Policies In theory, you could almost call the above a complete offseason plan. Make the moves enumerated here, and the 2027 Cubs would go: Lineup Yandy Díaz - DH Pete Crow-Armstrong - CF Alex Bregman - 3B Teruaki Sato - RF Michael Busch - 1B Nico Hoerner - 2B Carson Kelly - C Tyrone Taylor - LF Dansby Swanson - SS Bench Miguel Amaya Gabriel Arias James Triantos Starting Rotation Michael King Joe Ryan David Peterson Justin Steele Edward Cabrera Bullpen Ryan Zeferjahn Daniel Palencia Ryan Rolison Jacob Webb Shelby Miller Eric Orze Phil Maton Riley Martin That's respectable. Whether it's better than 2026 is debatable, but this team is losing not only a slew of starting pitchers (Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman, plus the fact that Horton and Brown now exist under a cloud of injury worry) but Suzuki and Ian Happ, which meant it was always going to be hard to get back even to last year's level. However, I see three major weak points that still need to be addressed. First, the outfield isn't robust enough. There's not even really a backup listed here, with Shaw and Alcántara shipped out of town and Taylor forced into the starting lineup. The Cubs need someone akin to 2026 Michael Conforto, pushing Taylor to the bench a majority of the time, but it shouldn't be Conforto himself; doubling down on veteran finds like that is a bad idea. The starting rotation also isn't deep enough. Steele and Cabrera are better as names than as actual pitchers right now. Behind them lurk Brown and Javier Assad, plus (around July, you hope) Horton, as well as some other underwhelming options, but the Cubs need more depth. More depth means people can step in when injuries happen. It also means they can stretch the rotation to six hurlers more often, which is important for keeping the guys who are healthy fresh and available come the end of the year. Finally, the bullpen needs another sturdy arm. Counting on anything from Maton (whatever his remaining upside if he comes back healthy after knee surgery) feels foolish. Therefore, I have the team making three more free-agent moves. Jake Fraley is no great shakes. If he's your starting outfielder, you're always looking for the chance to upgrade that spot. However, as a platoon partner for Taylor, the Cubs could do much worse. Fraley missed much of 2026 due to sports hernia surgery, which should keep his market very tame. He's a step better than Conforto was perceived to be last winter; the team would have to guarantee him a roster spot and a seven-figure salary. They should do it. He's the right kind of gamble, as a complement to bigger moves like signing Sato and trading for Díaz. Kris Bubic would increase the team's susceptibility to an injury crisis in the rotation. So be it. He's also one of the highest-upside non-premium arms on this year's free-agent market. The southpaw would be a perfect final ingredient along with Ryan, King and the return of Peterson. The team would have so much starting depth that they'd end up struggling to juggle it, if everyone got and stayed healthy for a prolonged period, but if the Cubs don't plan to do that difficult balancing act, they'll end up doing a tougher, worse one: scrambling to find help when they suddenly don't have enough arms to field a rotation. Finally, the team should scoop up semi-disgraced slider monster Kevin Ginkel. The surface-level numbers turned sour in Ginkel's walk year with Arizona, but his slider still misses bats at an exceptional rate. Add him to a mix that features Zeferjahn, Palencia and Rolison, and you have a sturdy back end of the bullpen, after all. This would be a phenomenally expensive team. The Cubs would be over the second luxury-tax threshold, unless some major changes come to the collective bargaining agreement. They would also be stuck hoping for a lot of success in a short period; their outlook beyond 2027 would be somewhat dimmed. But if the team wants to go from where they are to where they want to be, they have to accept those tradeoffs. It's time to go for it, if only because they have no real alternative—and because the way things are now should be unsatisfactory to almost all Cubs fans. View the full article

One day after being designated for assignment, Eduardo Rivera has found a new team as Craig Breslow traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals. The trade was first reported by SoxProspects’ Andrew Parker With the organization needing to get their 40-man roster down to 40-active players, Rivera was a casualty of the numbers crunch. It had been reported that the Red Sox were trying to trade him previously but with the roster deadline approaching and no takers, he was DFA'd instead. Now, he’s on his way to St. Louis. Rivera, who joined the organization as a minor-league free agent after being released by the Athletics in 2024, rose through the system and made his major-league debut in 2026. The left-hander made four appearances in Boston, going 0-1 with a 6.30 ERA in 10 innings. His season came to a conclusion when he was placed on the 60-Day injured list on September 1. In return the Red Sox are receiving 18 year old right-handed pitcher Juan García. García made 11 starts in the DSL where he pitched 43 innings and recorded a 4.40 ERA while striking out 39 batters. View the full article

One day after being designated for assignment, Eduardo Rivera has found a new team as Craig Breslow traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals. The trade was first reported by SoxProspects’ Andrew Parker With the organization needing to get their 40-man roster down to 40-active players, Rivera was a casualty of the numbers crunch. It had been reported that the Red Sox were trying to trade him previously but with the roster deadline approaching and no takers, he was DFA'd instead. Now, he’s on his way to St. Louis. Rivera, who joined the organization as a minor-league free agent after being released by the Athletics in 2024, rose through the system and made his major-league debut in 2026. The left-hander made four appearances in Boston, going 0-1 with a 6.30 ERA in 10 innings. His season came to a conclusion when he was placed on the 60-Day injured list on September 1. In return the Red Sox are receiving 18 year old right-handed pitcher Juan García. García made 11 starts in the DSL where he pitched 43 innings and recorded a 4.40 ERA while striking out 39 batters. View the full article

The Milwaukee Brewers made quick work of the Tampa Bay Rays in the 2026 World Series, meaning the Arizona Fall League is our only semblance of American professional baseball before what could be a dark and tumultuous offseason. Milwaukee’s prospects have shown a wide range of results, and with two weeks to go in AFL play, here’s what we know. Eric Bitonti’s Power Travels Eric Bitonti has held one of the more potent bats not just in the Brewers system, but in all of Minor League Baseball this year. The 20-year-old California native is already wrapping up his third full season in professional baseball, reaping in the benefits of being a high school draft pick back in 2023. Bitonti has dazzled in 15 games of Fall League play, slugging two home runs, driving in nine and slashing .275/.383/.451 over 60 plate appearances with the Scottsdale Scorpions. The left-handed-hitting corner infielder is filling out his 6-foot-5, 218-pound frame and has a violent swing. His strikeout numbers are still worth monitoring, though. Bitonti, who ended the regular season in Double-A Biloxi, has 19 strikeouts so far. This equates to a 31.6% strikeout rate. The former high-dollar signee struck out (32.9%) or walked (16.6%) nearly half the time this year, but he still pummeled 25 homers and ran a .916 OPS with the High-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. Few prospects can match his game-wrecking potential; he's just one key adjustment from unlocking it. Braylon Payne’s October Struggles Deviate From Bigger Picture Braylon Payne has had a microscope on him ever since the Brewers used their first-round pick on him in 2024. The 20-year-old high school draftee has shown promise, finding himself in Double-A by the conclusion of his second full pro season. Using a combination of power, range and an impeccable glove, Payne made big strides in 2026. His nine-game sample in Scottsdale may be a little off-putting to fans of the Brewers’ farm. Over 40 plate appearances, Payne has slashed just .200/.275/.314. The alarming part is his strikeout rate, as the outfield prospect has punched out 16 times for a 40% strikeout rate. His speed has still been on display. Payne has used the field dimensions to leg out triples for two of his seven hits. Payne’s 41.3% chase rate plagued him in Double-A this year, but his aggressivness on balls in the zone (79.8% zone-swing percentage) is one of the many reasons he makes for a dangerous at-bat. If the 20-year-old gets more selective, he could work himself into the big-league team’s outfield plans soon. Ryan Birchard Sputters Down the Stretch The Brewers have been touted for having a pitching laboratory, especially in the minor leagues. After a 2026 campaign in Biloxi that featured a 2-3 record and 4.68 earned run average, 23-year-old righty Ryan Birchard has run into some struggles in the desert. The 2023 fifth-round pick has struggled mightily with command, resulting in a 23.40 ERA over a five-appearance, five-inning sample. Birchard has given up 13 earned runs, and while he has allowed only five hits, the 12 walks have plagued the righty. This was a common theme in Biloxi this year, as Birchard gave up 57 free passes in 50 innings. He's also allowed 150 walks in 175 career professional innings. If the Milwaukee farm system can turn Birchard’s command around, it’d be a remarkable story, but this seems to be a long and winding road. The good news, for now, is that Bitonti continues to look like a budding star slugger, so the 2023 draft will continue to yield big returns for the Brewers. View the full article

Game Results: Monday, 10/26 | Surprise 4, Salt River 20 Tuesday, 10/27 | Salt River 0, Glendale 1 Wednesday, 10/28 | Salt River 4, Scottsdale 0 Thursday, 10/29 | Mesa 21, Salt River 5 Saturday, 10/31 | Salt River 11, Surprise 2 (6 innings) The Salt River Rafters went 3-2 in their five games during week four of the Arizona Fall League season, and sit in third place in the overall standings, one game out of first. During the week they both won and lost a game where a team scored 20 or more runs, as well as being on both sides of shutouts. A weather shortened game resulted in another big win. The top performers on the week again included multiple players from the Rafters roster, but again did not include any of the Twins prospects, despite one of them continuing to sit near the top of several offensive categories. OF Yasser Mercedes Week (1 game): 0-for-3, 1 R, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SB (4) Overall (through 11/1): .302/.389/.488 (.877 OPS) Mercedes played in only one game on the week, with that coming in Monday’s 20-4 blowout against the Surprise Saguaros. He batted third in the lineup and played center field. He did reach base multiple times in the game, but finished 0-for-3 with a run scored, walk, and stolen base, before being substituted in the seventh inning. He did not see action again during the week, but hopefully he’ll be back at some point in week five. IF Kyle DeBarge Week (3 games): 4-for-12, 3 R, HR (3), 1 RBI, 1 BB, 4 K, 2 SB (7) Overall (through 11/1): .358/.485/.604 (1.089 OPS) DeBarge continued to be a standout for the Rafters in week four, collecting at least one hit in all three of his games. He played one game each at second base, third base, and in center field, batting second in the lineup twice, and third once. He was a quiet 1-for-4 with three strikeouts in Tuesday’s shutout loss against Glendale, but was a strong contributor in Wednesday’s 4-0 win over Scottsdale as the only Rafters hitter with multiple knocks. In the top of the fifth inning he led off with a single, reached second base on a wild pitch, and scored a run on a single from teammate Jared Thomas to make the final score. He again led off the ninth with a single and although he ended up stranded, did steal both second and third base. On Halloween DeBarge got the scoring started for the Rafters by hitting his third home run of the AFL season in the top of the first for the early 1-0 lead. In the third he led off by reaching base on an error, and scored on a triple from the next batter that made it 4-1 Salt River, and they wouldn’t look back. LHP Cesar Lares Week (did not pitch): Overall (through 11/1): 0-0, 13.50 ERA, 10 BB, 6 K, 3.00 WHIP, .345 BAA (6 2/3 IP) Lares did not make an appearance in week four after having a bit of a rough go his last time out. He’ll look to rebound in week five. LHP Ross Dunn Week (1 start): 2 1/3 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 2 K Overall (through 11/1): 0-2, 21.00 ERA, 9 BB, 9 K, 3.33 WHIP, .457 BAA (9 IP) Dunn got the starting nod in Thursday’s blowout loss to the Mesa Solar Sox, but it didn’t begin that badly for the southpaw. He worked around a pair of singles in the top of the first by picking up a strikeout. In the second he set the Solar Sox down one-two-three, ending the frame with another K. With the score 1-0 Rafters he was back out for the third inning, and that’s where things went pear-shaped. He got the first batter on a groundout, but the next reached base on a single before a two-run homer put Mesa out front for good. A walk, single, double, and another walk spelled the end of his outing, and all four of those runners would end up crossing home plate. He finished with six earned runs allowed on six hits and a pair of walks in 2 1/3 innings. LHP Cleiber Maldonado Week (2 appearances): 2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 K Overall (through 11/1): 0-0, 10.13 ERA, 3 BB, 8 K, 2.44 WHIP, .385 BAA (5 1/3 IP) Maldonado made his first appearance of the week in Monday’s win over Surprise, entering the game with two outs in the top of the eighth inning with runners on second and third. He walked the bases loaded and allowed a run to score on a wild pitch, but escaped without any further damage. In the top of the ninth he struck out the leadoff man before allowing a single and an RBI double. He got the next man to ground out before another call to the bullpen. He next pitched in Thursday’s loss to Mesa, coming into the game in the middle of the fourth inning with the score 8-4 Solar Sox. He inherited a pair of runners, who both scored on a double from the first batter he faced. He then picked up a strikeout and flyout to end the inning. Back out for the fifth he hit a batter, got a grounder, and then allowed four straight singles to end his outing with Mesa up 12-4. LHP Jake Murray Week (1 appearance): 2/3 IP, 0 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 1 K Overall (through 11/1): 1-0, 3.00 ERA, 6 BB, 3 K, 2.33 WHIP, .111 BAA (3 IP) Murray was called upon for relief work on Halloween, entering the game to begin the sixth inning against the Surprise Saguaros. He retired the first two hitters he faced, including one via a strikeout, but then walked the next four hitters in a row to put the opposition's second run on the scoreboard and end his appearance one batter before the game was called. RHP Brian Zeldin Week (2 appearances): 1 1/3 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K Overall (through 11/1): 1-0, 2.45 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, .278 BAA, 0 BB, 3 K (3 2/3 IP) Zeldin made a pair of appearances during the week, including Monday’s blowout win, and Thursday's blowout loss. He relieved his teammate Maldonado with two outs in the ninth against the Saguaros on Monday, ending the game with a strikeout. He also finished Friday’s game against the Solar Sox with a scoreless ninth inning. He gave up a leadoff double and committed a throwing error, but nonetheless came out unscathed by retiring all three other hitters he faced. OF Jacob McCombs Week (did not play): McCombs has yet to see the field for the Salt River Rafters this season, but the hope is that he will be able to take the field soon with his fellow prospects! C Enrique Jimenez Week (3 games): 2-for-8, 1 3B, 4 RBI, 0 BB, 5 K Overall (through 11/1): .125/.300/.250 (.550 OPS) The Twins catching prospect made it into three games during the week, though two of those appearances came as a pinch hitter. His lone start came on Monday, where he served as the designated hitter and batted ninth in the lineup. He finished 2-for-6 to pick up his first hits of the AFL season, including an RBI single in the bottom of the seventh, and bases-clearing triple in the bottom of the eighth to give the Rafters their 20 runs. I hate to have to mention he also struck out four times. On Thursday with the game well out of hand, he pinch hit in the bottom of the seventh inning, and went down swinging. With Salt River leading by 10 on Halloween, he pinch hit for AFL standout Jack O’Dowd in the top of the sixth, flying out to right field. Please feel free to ask questions and discuss the Twins prospects playing in the AFL this week! View the full article

The Milwaukee Brewers made quick work of the Tampa Bay Rays in the 2026 World Series, meaning the Arizona Fall League is our only semblance of American professional baseball before what could be a dark and tumultuous offseason. Milwaukee’s prospects have shown a wide range of results, and with two weeks to go in AFL play, here’s what we know. Eric Bitonti’s Power Travels Eric Bitonti has held one of the more potent bats not just in the Brewers system, but in all of Minor League Baseball this year. The 20-year-old California native is already wrapping up his third full season in professional baseball, reaping in the benefits of being a high school draft pick back in 2023. Bitonti has dazzled in 15 games of Fall League play, slugging two home runs, driving in nine and slashing .275/.383/.451 over 60 plate appearances with the Scottsdale Scorpions. The left-handed-hitting corner infielder is filling out his 6-foot-5, 218-pound frame and has a violent swing. His strikeout numbers are still worth monitoring, though. Bitonti, who ended the regular season in Double-A Biloxi, has 19 strikeouts so far. This equates to a 31.6% strikeout rate. The former high-dollar signee struck out (32.9%) or walked (16.6%) nearly half the time this year, but he still pummeled 25 homers and ran a .916 OPS with the High-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. Few prospects can match his game-wrecking potential; he's just one key adjustment from unlocking it. Braylon Payne’s October Struggles Deviate From Bigger Picture Braylon Payne has had a microscope on him ever since the Brewers used their first-round pick on him in 2024. The 20-year-old high school draftee has shown promise, finding himself in Double-A by the conclusion of his second full pro season. Using a combination of power, range and an impeccable glove, Payne made big strides in 2026. His nine-game sample in Scottsdale may be a little off-putting to fans of the Brewers’ farm. Over 40 plate appearances, Payne has slashed just .200/.275/.314. The alarming part is his strikeout rate, as the outfield prospect has punched out 16 times for a 40% strikeout rate. His speed has still been on display. Payne has used the field dimensions to leg out triples for two of his seven hits. Payne’s 41.3% chase rate plagued him in Double-A this year, but his aggressivness on balls in the zone (79.8% zone-swing percentage) is one of the many reasons he makes for a dangerous at-bat. If the 20-year-old gets more selective, he could work himself into the big-league team’s outfield plans soon. Ryan Birchard Sputters Down the Stretch The Brewers have been touted for having a pitching laboratory, especially in the minor leagues. After a 2026 campaign in Biloxi that featured a 2-3 record and 4.68 earned run average, 23-year-old righty Ryan Birchard has run into some struggles in the desert. The 2023 fifth-round pick has struggled mightily with command, resulting in a 23.40 ERA over a five-appearance, five-inning sample. Birchard has given up 13 earned runs, and while he has allowed only five hits, the 12 walks have plagued the righty. This was a common theme in Biloxi this year, as Birchard gave up 57 free passes in 50 innings. He's also allowed 150 walks in 175 career professional innings. If the Milwaukee farm system can turn Birchard’s command around, it’d be a remarkable story, but this seems to be a long and winding road. The good news, for now, is that Bitonti continues to look like a budding star slugger, so the 2023 draft will continue to yield big returns for the Brewers. View the full article

Barring a miracle, it looks to be another disappointing election, Marlins fans. For that is truly what it would take. A former Marlin making it into the National Baseball Hall of Fame this winter would be surprising enough. Seeing them choose to do so in a Marlins cap? As I said, miraculous. What's that? Some of you were thinking of today's voting? Well yes, Election Day is here, but it's a much more baseball focused, wintertime election cycle we'll be focusing on. As every Miami fan knows, no player has ever gone into Cooperstown representing the Marlins. Certainly, plenty of Hall of Famers spent some time in Marlins colors. Andre Dawson and Tim Raines soaked up some sunshine at the end of their careers. Trevor Hoffman started his. Jim Leyland led Miami to a championship. Ivan Rodriguez helped them win another. Ichiro Suzuki collected his 3,000th hit. Mike Piazza spent a week becoming one of baseball's favorite trivia answers. However, none of them chose to be immortalized as a Marlin. This offseason could easily determine if anyone ever does. How so? Multiple decisions to be made between now and next Opening Day will play a role. Some of those are well within Miami's control. Others? Less so. Yet all will go a long way towards deciding whether fans can count on a Marlins Hall of Famer anytime soon. Starting with... Their Current Aces Will the Marlins offer Sandy Alcantara an extension? He's by no means a lock for Cooperstown, but he's also one of only two active Marlins you could squint and see getting there. If Sandy were to spend his entire career in South Florida being his above average innings eater self, and that career continues for another six to eight years? That could end up being recognized. Then there's Eury Perez. This winter feels like the last chance for an extension, barring a massive change to Miami's financial situation. Speaking of which... Will Baseball Get Salary Reform? Outside of Alcantara, this one is really the whole ballgame. Honestly, even that Perez mention should have been included in this section. It's just really hard to see the Marlins keeping anyone good enough long enough without the proposed salary cap and floor. If it were just about one great year, Leyland or Rodriguez would have gone in as Marlins. Same for Miguel Cabrera in a couple years. It's about the excellence and tenure, which is an expensive combination. Likely too expensive for Miami without salary reform. Unless... Will Miami's Home Run Leader Return Home? Last and least likely, what if Giancarlo Stanton finished his career in South Florida? The Yankees could easily cut him. Technically, the Marlins are already spending $10 million on him anyway. Would it be so shocking if the team sought to sell some tickets and give him the chance for an Albert Pujols ending to his career? Returning home to chase home run history? It would take him accepting a sweetheart deal, and Miami looking past the fact he's likely cooked. It would be quite the storybook ending though. Barring one of these scenarios? That could be it for Miami winning a Hall of Fame vote. View the full article