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Tom Pohlad has been consistent in one message this winter: He believes the Minnesota Twins will be in contention in 2026. Projection systems have been far less optimistic, and Pohlad has shown little interest in revisiting the organization’s second straight offseason of payroll cuts. Teams with higher payrolls buy margin for error through veteran depth and midseason flexibility. The Twins do not have those luxuries. What they might have, instead, is something harder to quantify and easier to overlook. Underrated players do not make a loud impact in national conversations. They are often hidden behind strikeout totals, injury histories, or the simple crime of playing in medium-sized markets on underachieving teams. Yet, those players can quietly carry a roster when things break right. MLB Network recently ran through its Top 100 Players Right Now, and MLB.com followed that with Anthony Castrovince’s 2026 All Underrated Team. The criteria were strict. No recent major award winners. No former All-Stars. No nine-figure contracts. No young players who are still in their honeymoon phase. What remained was a list of players who consistently help teams win without much recognition. Two Twins landed on that list, and both point toward how this roster might outperform expectations. Ryan Jeffers continues to exist in the strange space where solid production at catcher somehow feels replaceable. Catching is brutal on the body and harder on the bat. League-average offense at the position is valuable, and Jeffers has been better than that. Over the past three seasons, he has been one of only four catchers with at least 335 plate appearances and a league-average or better OPS+ each year. His OPS+ in that stretch sits 13% above league average. The names around him are William Contreras and Will Smith, players who are spoken about very differently. Jeffers is not marketed as a franchise cornerstone. What he does is show up, take quality at-bats, lead the pitching staff, and provide offense from a position where many teams accept far less. The Twins also expect that he will catch 100 games or more this season, his last year under team control. That kind of stability behind the plate has ripple effects through a pitching staff, especially one that relies heavily on command and sequencing. Jeffers being quietly good is exactly the kind of thing projection systems tend to flatten out. Matt Wallner is a more chaotic version of underrated. As MLB.com pointed out, his 2025 stat line does not look normal, and that's because it was not. Forty-one extra-base hits with only 68 total hits is an absurd distribution, something that has barely happened in modern baseball. The easy explanation is that he strikes out too much. The harder truth is that Wallner actually made real progress there, cutting his strikeout rate by more than seven points while maintaining a walk rate in the 84th percentile. The underlying data suggests the power is real. His average bat speed was among the quickest in the league, and he ranked in the 85th percentile in barrel percentage. When he makes contact, it is loud. Injuries have kept him from stacking full seasons, but over the past three years, he has an OPS+ that is 29% better than league average. That is the same neighborhood as James Wood and Pete Alonso over similar stretches. Wallner does not need to become consistent in the way stars are consistent. He just needs to stay on the field and keep doing damage. Beyond those two, the Twins roster has several other players who could be quietly critical if things break right. Here’s one underrated player in each player group (position players, starting pitchers, and relief pitchers). Royce Lewis is no longer a mystery. He is also not what he was at his peak a few seasons ago, as he finished last season with an 85 OPS+. That gap between expectation and recent reality has pushed him into underrated territory. Lewis still has impact tools, and his ability to change a game with one swing or one defensive play remains intact. The question is health and rhythm, not talent. ZiPS projects him to have a 97 OPS+ with a 1.4 fWAR. If he can simply get back to being himself, even at a slightly reduced level, the lineup gains a presence it has sorely lacked. Bailey Ober sits in a similar space on the pitching side. Injuries disrupted his 2025 season and dulled the conversation around him as he ended the year with a 5.10 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. When healthy, Ober has shown he can miss bats, limit walks, and give length. Those are traits that age well and travel well. For 2026, ZiPS projects him to produce 2.0 fWAR with a 102 ERA+. The Twins do not need him to be an ace. They need him to be reliable, to show that last year was an interruption and not a trend. In the bullpen, Cole Sands may be the most interesting name. His stuff has played in a variety of roles, but the late innings are where reputations are made and tested. Sands has the chance to become one of those relievers who perform in high-leverage spots. ZiPS projects him to have a 110 ERA+ with a 23.5 K%. If he proves he can handle save opportunities, the Twins suddenly have an internal solution that would otherwise cost real money. The Twins may not have the payroll cushion Tom Pohlad wishes he could ignore, and projection systems may not see the upside baked into this roster. But baseball seasons are not won on paper. They are won by players who outperform their labels. If enough of these underrated pieces click at the same time, Minnesota’s path to contention may not be as far-fetched as it looks. Do the Twins have other underrated players? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 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To the surprise of no one, the Brewers traded away arguably their best pitcher for the third winter in a row. This time, Freddy Peralta was sent to the Mets, with two consensus top-100 prospects returning to Milwaukee. Unlike the previously traded Corbin Burnes and Devin Williams, the Brewers did not sign or draft Peralta as an amateur; they acquired him in a trade. In fact, it was a deal executed by none other than the current New York Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns, who can carve his initials twice on the Freddy Peralta trade tree. The Milwaukee Brewers' Freddy Peralta Era begins with Tyler Walker. On Jan. 28, 2010, the Washington Nationals signed Walker to join their bullpen. Walker had a respectable 3.57 ERA with the Nationals that yea, in what would be his final season in the majors. To make room for Walker on their roster, the Nationals designated Marco Estrada for assignment, and the Brewers claimed him off waivers on February 3. At the time the Brewers acquired Estrada, he had only had a couple of cups of coffee in the big leagues, with a total of 20 innings over two seasons. Baseball America rated Estrada as the Nationals' 18th-best prospect that winter, and the team was coming off a 103-loss season, so it’s a little surprising that they removed a pitcher who had posted 3.63/3.41 ERA/FIP over 136.1 innings in Triple A from their roster. At 6 feet and 180 pounds, Estrada was seen as undersized at the time and had low strikeout numbers in 2009, but it’s hard to imagine that a last-place team wouldn’t find a player like this valuable. The Nationals' mistake would become the Brewers' gain. Estrada missed the majority of 2010 with shoulder fatigue, and the Brewers outrighted him from the 40-man roster, but he returned in 2011 and contributed a strong 92.2 innings in 43 appearances and seven starts. Estrada had a breakout year in 2012, starting 23 games with a 3.64 ERA over 136.1 innings and more than a strikeout per inning. Estrada pitched two more seasons with the organization, giving the team a lot of flexibility by starting 39 games in 60 appearances. On Nov. 1, 2014, the Brewers sent Estrada to the Blue Jays for first baseman Adam Lind. Estrada would go on to pitch with the Blue Jays for four seasons, providing a lot of solid innings and making an All-Star appearance for the club. Adam Lind was the fourth attempt by the Brewers to replace Prince Fielder at first base. He came to Milwaukee following a strong season in Toronto, with a .321/.381/.479 line in 290 plate appearances. Lind was under contract for the 2015 season on a $7.5-milliion deal, with a 2016 team option for $8 million. In what ended up being his only season as a Brewer, Lind hit a respectable .271/.360/.460, with 20 home runs and 2.0 fWAR. Following the season, new Brewers general manager David Stearns picked up Lind’s option, with an eye toward trading him. Just over a month later, Stearns struck a deal with the Seattle Mariners and their notoriously active general manager, Jerry Dipoto. Lind hit another 20 home runs in Seattle during the 2016 season, but his walk rate and BABIP declined sharply. He went from being 20 percent better than the average MLB hitter in 2014 to 7 percent worse than average in his lone season with the Mariners. The Brewers' return for Lind was three teenage pitchers: Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missaki, and Freddy Peralta, with a combined 34.1 innings above rookie ball. Stearns cashed in Lind for three lottery tickets, and one of them hit. Missaki was recovering from Tommy John surgery when the Brewers acquired him; he never pitched for the organization. After nine years away from major-league organizations, including stints in Japan, Latin America and Mexico, he pitched in the Cubs system in 2024 and threw 74 innings with the Rangers' Double-A affiliate last year. Herrera peaked with 85.2 innings in 2018 for the Brewers' Low-A affiliate, and hasn’t pitched in affiliated baseball since 2019. Peralta debuted with the Brewers in 2018, with a memorable one-hit, 13-strikeout performance in front of his parents. He evolved quickly into a fan and clubhouse favorite, and eventually into a true top-of-the-rotation starter. After pitching as both a starter and reliever in his first two seasons, Peralta signed a team-friendly extension in February 2020, which allowed the team to extend their contractual control through the upcoming 2026 season and (ultimately) to trade him this winter. In parts of eight seasons with the Brewers, Peralta accrued 17.8 fWAR, throwing 931 innings with 70 wins, 1,153 strikeouts and a 3.59 ERA. The Freddy Peralta trade tree will continue to grow, through the contributions of Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams. Sproat will likely compete for a rotation spot with the Brewers immediately. The 56th overall pick in the second round of the 2023 MLB Draft threw 141.2 total innings in 2025, including 20 with the Mets. Williams likely needs more time in Triple A to refine his skills with the bat and in the field. His strong approach at the plate and defensive versatility should set the floor for him as a valuable utility player capable of handling all three up-the-middle positions in the field. The Brewers have had consistency and stability in their front office for most of this century. Doug Melvin was the general manager when Estrada was acquired. Melvin stayed with the team when Stearns was brought in to lead the baseball operations department, and one of Stearns's first hires was Matt Arnold, the current president of baseball operations. All three executives completed key moves, to draw the line from Estrada to Sproat and Williams. It’s possible that contributions from the two new Brewers (or a new branch added in the future) will lead to a name change, but for the foreseeable future, this is the Freddy Peralta trade tree. For something that grew from the seed of a late-winter waiver claim, it's a mighty oak. Estrada, Lind and Peralta have combined to give the team 21.6 wins above replacement (WAR), according to Baseball Reference. That's value created by extremely low-cost risk-taking, like claiming Estrada in the first place and extending Peralta, rather than by using vital resources like first-round picks or young talent. In Williams and Sproat, they now have two players who could generate a similar amount of value for them in the decade to come. It's a great reminder of the value of savvy scouting, player development, and deft transactions. View the full article

There are few jobs in baseball more thankless than working in a communications department during organizational chaos. The Minnesota Twins have managed to turn that chaos into a full-time endurance sport, and the team’s PR staff has been running wind sprints since last summer, with no hydration break in sight. According to sources inside the organization, the communications department spent weeks training for last season’s trade deadline sell-off. This was not metaphorical training. This was real preparation. Long nights. Cold coffee. A shared Google Doc titled “Just In Case.” While the rest of baseball enjoyed the All-Star Break, the Twins PR staff sat hunched over laptops trying to pre-write press releases for half the roster. “We treated it like spring training,” said Twins Communication Czar Dustin Morse, according to one internal email accidentally forwarded to everyone. “You stretch. You prepare. You hope no one pulls a hamstring while being traded for a Low-A reliever.” The signs were everywhere: phones buzzing; executives whispering; and that familiar feeling that something big was coming, but no one knew exactly what. By the time the deadline arrived, the communications team had drafts ready for players who were traded, players who were rumored to be traded, and players who simply felt tradable in spirit. Then came the pivot. Just as the PR staff had emotionally committed to the sell-off era, ownership shifted gears. The Pohlad group went from selling the entire franchise to selling minority shares, and suddenly, the communications department had to find positives in continuity. This proved tricky, after weeks of preparing statements that included phrases like “as part of a long-term retool” and “we thank him for his contributions during a challenging season.” One unnamed staffer described the whiplash. “We had to delete the word 'rebuild' from seventeen different drafts and replace it with 'strategic flexibility'," the source said. "I do not know what 'strategic flexibility' means anymore, but I can type it very fast.” There was at least one moment of relief. When Rocco Baldelli was fired, the PR spin was easy. The Twins famously keep a pre-written Word document labeled: “Manager Firing Final Final Use This One.” Despite there being only three managers fired in recent memory—Ron Gardenhire, Paul Molitor, and Baldelli—the document remains a cherished artifact, lovingly updated every few years like a family recipe. “That one was plug and play,” said another source. “Change the name. Change the year. Add a line about gratitude and culture. Done.” This week’s news of Derek Falvey parting ways with the front office was a different beast entirely. No leaks. No whispers. No helpful heads-up to allow the communications department to prepare emotionally or grammatically. Falvey had been the public voice of the franchise, even appearing at TwinsFest days earlier, calmly explaining plans that were apparently already being archived. The PR team went into high gear, tasked with making it seem as if the franchise was not quietly unraveling at the seams. Adjectives were debated. Verbs were scrutinized. 'Mutual' was workshopped for nearly an hour. “'Mutual' is doing a lot of heavy lifting,” another source admitted. “We stared at that word like it might blink first.” In the end, the release went out. Calm. Professional. Carefully constructed to suggest stability, vision, and intentionality. Inside the communications department, several people reportedly stared at the wall afterward, wondering how many more drafts they could delete before muscle memory took over completely. The conclusion is unavoidable. While players come and go, and executives rotate through press conferences, the true iron men of the Minnesota Twins may be the communications staff. They are always ready. Always rewriting. Always finding optimism in the margins. Somewhere in Target Field, a new folder has already been created. It is simply titled “Next One.” View the full article

If the Cubs want a pitcher with a chance to be a frontline starter throughout 2026, they still have two solid options in free agency: Zac Gallen and Framber Valdez. Not coincidentally, the team has been mentioned in connection with each hurler over the last fortnight, and North Side Baseball can confirm that they've had sustained interest in Gallen—though not, so far, at anywhere near the terms Scott Boras has demanded for the erstwhile Diamondbacks ace. Both Gallen and Valdez would cost the Cubs a draft pick, though, because each is attached to compensation via the qualifying offer. Gallen and Valdez turned down $22.025 million from their former clubs in November, guaranteeing those teams compensatory picks if they leave. More importantly, each has spent at least a half-decade as a full-time starter, with no meaningful experience in the bullpen. They would contribute to the logjam in the team's starting rotation, and it's unlikely that either (especially on the kinds of short-term deals to which the Cubs would be open to signing them) would be happy with any role that lessened their importance, the volume of innings they could pitch, or (therefore) their earning power. It might be easier to work with Chris Bassitt, Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer, who are all in the twilight of their careers but have been very good when available. They'd be easier to stash on the injured list for stretches when the entire rotation is healthy, and Bassitt showed that he can be a weapon out of the bullpen when Toronto moved him there last fall. However, it's harder to be sure that any of them (especially the quadragenarians, Verlander and Scherzer) would be available at all when the team needs them most, in the autumn. One player could suit the Cubs' needs perfectly, and would be another way for the team to strengthen its relationship with Boras, too. Nick Martinez had a superficially poor season with the Reds in 2025, with a 4.45 ERA in 40 appearances. However, he's arguably the game's best old-fashioned swingman. He made 26 starts and 14 relief appearances in 2025, and has 61 starts out of 192 games pitched since the start of 2022. He's been exceptionally durable in a role that often comes with added injury risk, and shows the ability to turn over lineup cards as well as being a matchup weapon in the right situations. Martinez's skill set is distinct from that of Colin Rea. He's more akin to Javier Assad, with a high arm slot and extremely kinetic delivery that yields a diverse pitch mix and masks underwhelming raw stuff. Assad can still be optioned to Triple-A Iowa, so Martinez could contribute as a starter when needed; give the bullpen a long man and a solid middle-relief buttress when the rotation is fully stocked; and add to the variety of looks Craig Counsell can offer opposing lineups. The step back in his raw numbers last season had some bad luck mixed into it. Martinez's stuff is not exceptional, but he throws a four-seamer, a sinker, a cutter, a gyro slider, a good curveball and an interesting changeup. He can get lefties out, and though he struggled against fellow righties last year, he's likely to rebound on that front in 2026. Best of all, he wouldn't cost a draft pick, and is likely to sign for less on an annual basis than any of the other five free agents named above. The Cubs could add him to their staff, feel supremely confident about their depth, and still have money to spend (be it now or at the trade deadline) to round out their roster. Once camp opens next Wednesday, the team can place Justin Steele on the 60-day injured list. That would sideline him until at least Memorial Day, but (despite Steele's protestations and the team's steady optimism) no responsible plan would put him back on a big-league mound before June, anyway. He's just as likely to run into a hiccup or two and return near the end of July. Martinez could sign next week, take the roster spot created by Steele's shift to the 60-day IL, and become Rea's partner at the fluid back end of a very strong, deep rotation. These same characteristics make Martinez appealing to many other clubs, too, and he's likely to wait until Gallen and/or Valdez sign to see where demand is greatest before signing his own deal. The Cubs can afford to wait. Unless the price craters completely on one of Gallen or Valdez, they should bide their time and sign Martinez, instead, once the dust settles from the final true sweepstakes of his hot stove season. View the full article

There is still much we don’t know about the specific events that led to the Twins and Derek Falvey parting ways. One thing we do know, though, is that Falvey was set up to fail in three key ways. That makes it easy to see why he wanted out, and perhaps why he chose not to let another losing season be hung around his neck as he seeks his next, greener pasture. The Correa Signing The first way in which ownership misled Falvey was Joe Pohlad’s green-lighting of Carlos Correa’s second signing. To be clear, the approval itself was sound, and theoretically, it was a great move. A good owner, when sensing that his team’s window of contention is wide-open and that the team is one big splash away from having a chance at a deep playoff run, should approve signing a superstar. After the signing, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported the following: “While he didn’t mention a specific number, Pohlad didn’t hesitate to suggest the Twins could increase payroll significantly if everything was properly aligned ... Would something like $180-200 million be out of the question? “I think that there are a number of factors that you need to consider,” Pohlad said. “Where your team is, where your division is, where your business is at. And I don’t think something like that is ever out of the question. I really don’t.” Fast-forward eight months, and you know the rest. A good owner should not approve a signing like the Correa if he knows it will reduce the ability to add supplemental pieces, or worse, to slash payroll by nearly 20% the following season—then again, and again for good measure. One might choose to be charitable, and argue that perhaps Pohlad didn’t know that the family would be “losing” significant money. That's a watery defense, though. An owner's imprimatur on a signing should signal a commitment to the spending required to justify it, which means either knowing for sure that it won't limit the team, or being willing to stretch and accept the pain when it comes. Either way, allowing Falvey to take on a $200-million contract and then slashing payroll eliminated Falvey’s ability to sign quality depth pieces that would insulate the team against injuries, player regression, or the failure of prospects to develop into quality regulars. In short, the Pohlads forced Falvey to immediately thread a needle if he wanted to succeed. Ownership Communication and Decision-Making The second way the Pohlads made Falvey’s job harder is through their public-facing ineptitude. Whether it was Joe’s ill-advised “rightsizing the payroll” comment immediately following the first playoff success in 20 years, or his comments following the 2025 trade deadline firesale, ownership hung the front office out to dry. “I’m confident because we have got all the right pieces, and we have the resources we’re ready to invest when needed," he said in July. "The goal is not to compete. The goal is to win a World Series.” That’s just so out of touch with the reality of the situation, and unfortunately for Falvey, it makes it appear as if he’s the one choosing not to improve the team. One can also point to the travails of watching Twins games on TV as the RSN model died its slow and ugly death, and the public promise they allowed Cory Provus to give (on the record) that there would be no more blackouts—after which they chose to re-up with the same bankrupt organization that was preventing fans from watching. That created a feedback loop of frustration among fans that led many to tune out. Of course, with his promotion, Falvey had to try to figure out how to pick up the pieces. This is just one example of ownership hurting their own earning power, which led to the reductions in payroll. Then, of course, there was the sale that wasn’t, leading to Falvey stating as late as December's Winter Meetings that he still wasn’t sure what he would be allowed to do this offseason, at a time when other teams were deep in their planning processes—and, indeed, executing those plans. Unrealistic, And Constantly Changing Expectations The final, perhaps irreconcilable way that the Pohlads made Falvey’s job impossible was to issue mutually exclusive, diametrically opposed dictates. The first: to win, despite needing four good bullpen arms, a backup catcher, and at least two above-average hitters. The second: do this for, say, $20 million in offseason spending, leaving the team with one of baseball's smallest payrolls. They issued this unfunded mandate, by the way, after Falvey had already made the sensible choice to rebuild at the deadline last season, based on the financial constraints placed on him and the underperformance of the core. That came after the whiplash Falvey had received from ownership pivots over the prior two years. It has looked something like this: 2023: Go all in! Sign Correa! Break the curse! There’s more money where this came from! 2024: So close…but you gotta cut payroll. By a lot. Hopefully it’ll be fine. You'll figure it out. Also, why are fans mad? 2025: Keep cutting. It’s a good core, we can still do this. Actually, the team isn’t quite performing… You know what? Maybe let’s actually burn it down. Seriously, why are fans mad? It’s a nice ballpark. 2026: Oh, fans are mad because they want to win. Ok. We aren’t rebuilding. You better win. Also, there’s no money. Trust me, payroll doesn’t matter. Vibes matter. Falvey acted the politician throughout his Twins tenure, to the point that he consistently took heat for decisions that weren’t, strictly speaking, his. I’m sure signing Ty France to play first base in 2025 was not his first, or even second, choice. I’m sure he would have preferred not to eliminate the 2025 bullpen at the deadline. This is, after all, the guy who was in tears following the 2024 season because of how upset he was that the team failed down the stretch. There was never an indication that he didn’t want to field a great team, but he was handcuffed at every point since the 2023 playoffs ended. However, the fact that he consistently chose to carry water reflected an accurate understanding of the reality he was living. Ownership found themselves in significant debt, however it was accrued; he had a good relationship with his bosses; and he liked the role he was in. So, he dealt with it and made the best of it. When the boss with whom he'd had a good relationship was replaced by an intransigent dilettante, he realized that he no longer liked the role as much as he once had. The debt is being reduced or eliminated, but Falvey realized that wouldn't matter if he was to be overseen by a similarly miserly but less engaged and less flexible Pohlad sibling. I can’t say I blame him. View the full article

Like it or not, when it comes to NL West predictions in the era of the Death Star Dodgers, the highest every other team in the division hopes to be is second place. And with spring training less than two weeks away, various outlets are coming out with early predictions or projections for how the NL West will shake out. One of those was FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski, the mastermind behind the widely respected ZiPS projections. After doing team-by-team projections (you can read Padres Mission's review of that) over the last few months, Szymborski used updated rosters and projections to come up with division-by-division standings. As expected, when it came to the West, the two-time defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers were the clear-cut best team in baseball. By running "a million simulations," Szymborski's projection gave the Dodgers a 96-66 record. Again, not surprising. So, where did the San Diego Padres fit in? ZiPS has the Friars finishing third at 83-79, just a game behind the second-place San Francisco Giants at 84-78. Unfortunately, Szymborski doesn't spend much time analyzing why the Padres will finish in this spot, only alluding to the fragility of the starting rotation should injuries take a bite out of the staff. With the Arizona Diamondbacks projected for an 81-81 mark, it figures to be a three-way battle for second place. The Colorado Rockies bring up the rear at 61-101, following up on the worst record in MLB in 2025 with the worst projected record of 2026. Padres fans shouldn't be too surprised at any of this, knowing the rotation is thin and the depth of the position players is shaky. When it comes to making the playoffs, which is always the true goal of the regular season, the Padres have a 10% chance of winning the division and a 41.9% shot at an NL wild card. The Giants are at 14.6% for the division and 35.5% for a wild card, while the D'backs are at 6.5% and 25%. Surprisingly, the Friars had a better projection when it came to winning the World Series than the Giants. The Padres won the championship 2.8% of the time, with the D'backs next at 2% and the Giants at 1.6%. Of course, that all pales in comparison to the Dodgers, whose numbers pop off the page. L.A. checked in at winning the West 68.9% of the time, a whopping 22.3 percentage points ahead of the Seattle Mariners, who won the AL West 46.6% of the time. The Dodgers settled for a wild card at a 22.8% clip. Szymborski said of Los Angeles: "The Dodgers are still the class of the division, but their invincibility has been vastly overrated." Isn't that what the theory about the Death Star was, too? View the full article

The Brewers have enjoyed the fruits of a heist since Opening Day 2023. Through a brilliant move, they secured the long-term services of William Contreras, plus the useful Joel Payamps, for the price of Esteury Ruiz, who’s since been dealt to two other teams. Will catcher still be a strength in 2026? 2025 Review Contreras held down the fort again in 2025, playing through a broken finger. It cost him somewhat at the plate and in terms of WAR (he dropped from 4.9 WAR in 2024 to 3.9 in 2025), but he was still a borderline All-Star-caliber player. That didn’t leave much for backups Eric Haase and Danny Jansen to do, although both contributed by allowing Contreras to serve as the DH on occasion. Current Roster Situation At the start of February, the Brewers have Contreras and former Top 100 prospect Jeferson Quero on the 40-man roster. Contreras figures to be the starter, though barring a financial miracle, his days at Uecker Field are probably numbered. The big question is who takes the No. 2 spot. Backup catchers in Milwaukee haven’t had much to do at times, but it never hurts to have quality when it's needed. Quero could be an option even by Opening Day, and has been the Brewers' catcher of the future for the last few years. The theory behind him as the backup to Contreras would be that he could spend 2026 acclimating to MLB pitching and easing in as the eventual starter. However, he’s still coming off two injury-riddled seasons and may need to play every day, and that can only happen in Triple-A Nashville, given Contreras’s presence. Anthony Seigler is also on the 40-man roster and played 22 games at catcher in Nashville last season, but he's more of a utility man and emergency backstop. Then we turn to various non-roster invitees. Veteran Reese McGuire was signed as a free agent, and received an invitation to spring training. He's the co-favorite (alongside Quero) to be the backup come late March. Ramon Rodriguez had only 81 at-bats in a 2025 season lost to injury. Darrien Miller has been in the organization for a long time, and his OBP skills are strong. Matthew Wood has looked solid, despite being overshadowed by Quero and Marco Dinges. Wood and Miller are both only 24, though neither will be more than a second-tier backup in the majors. Best-Case Scenario for 2026 The best-case scenario for the Brewers is for Contreras to pick up about 120 starts behind the plate and another 30 or so at designated hitter, with one of the NRIs taking the backup job, allowing Quero a full season at Nashville to give the Brewers an idea of what he will look like at maturity. McGuire and Miller would be the top contenders, with McGuire holding the obvious edge. If Contreras posts something akin to his 2024 numbers, the Brewers could then get a major haul to recharge their farm system. Worst-Case Scenario for 2026 Contreras has a lengthy stay on the injured list, and Jeferson Quero struggles as his fill-in. The Brewers were lucky that Contreras was able to power through and deliver above-average offense (111 OPS+) even in an injury-diminished campaign. If they are unlucky this time around, the catcher position goes from a strength to a question mark in 2026, and it will also affect the return the Brewers receive in the likely event Contreras is traded in the 2026-2027 offseason. Overview There are a number of ways for the catcher spot to go wrong for Milwaukee. Contreras could be injured. The Brewers could end up with Quero sitting on the bench a lot in Milwaukee, because nobody else seizes the backup catcher slot. Catcher can also go right in multiple ways, including Quero delivering average to above-average offense and forcing his way into playing time in Milwaukee. The interesting discussion in Arizona will be who backs up the big guy, but the outcomes for this season all hinge on Contreras himself. View the full article

With Gavin Sheets (mostly officially) set to take over as the San Diego Padres' starting first baseman for 2026, it appears that one of their two remaining lineup questions has been answered. The other, however, remains an unsolved riddle. Once the Padres exercised Ramón Laureano's club option, they settled seven of their nine positions in the lineup. Only first base and designated hitter were left to determine. With the news that Sheets will get the first run at the former, how the team will approach the latter now becomes a matter of some conjecture. Now on the cusp of pitchers and catchers reporting to Arizona, two paths lie before them. For one, there's a chance the Padres attempt to fill the position completely internally. Given how quiet things have been on the transactional front, this one would appear to be the most likely. It's also the most complex. At one point this winter, it might've been worthwhile for the team to consider deploying Luis Campusano as part of a regular DH rotation. His upside lives almost exclusively in his bat and, in the absence of other options, it appeared that he finally had a path to regular plate appearances. That could have even extended to a platoon, of sorts, with Sheets. With the latter now assumed to be getting regular field work, that idea dissolves. To say nothing of the fact that Campusano still projects to be the team's backup catcher. That's a guy more likely to start on the bench rather than elsewhere considering the logistical nightmare wrought by something happening to Freddy Fermin mid-game. With that idea out, the first path is paved for Craig Stammen to rotate someone new in depending on matchups and a desire to create partial off-days. Sung Mun Song's presence certainly helps in this regard. He can play any of second base, shortstop, or third, and the team plans to get him some additional run at first and in the outfield. Such utility could be used heavily to their advantage in getting veterans off their feet in the field on occasion. This is particularly true for Manny Machado, whose body has been through plenty of tribulations and who features declining defensive metrics. The same could be true of the outfield, where Bryce Johnson presents at least a stable glove in the event that Stammen wanted to give Fernando Tatis Jr. or Jackson Merrill a bit of a blow on a given day. There is a way to execute such a plan in a way that doesn't alter the lineup too much on a daily basis, as well. If it's Song, for example, rotating primarily through the group, then you hold his spot and simply rotate positions on an as-needed basis. It's still a good deal of roster juggling, but could allow the Padres to give their most important bats more frequent rest, at least on a halfway basis. The alternative to the expected route is to pursue a bat from outside the organization. This might be someone like Rhys Hoskins or Miguel Andujar on the free-agent market. Hoskins has become nearly unplayable in the field while Andujar at least has some versatility in a bat that bounced back in 2025. If the Philadelphia Phillies were willing to eat enough money, Nick Castellanos could be a somewhat realistic option, too. Such a route has appeal in the form of an additional bat for a team that probably needs more supplemental offense. Considering we don't know where the team's financial expectations are at this stage of the winter, however, it's also a much more difficult route to see to fruition than the expected one. With the clarity arriving on Sheets' role, though, there's an opportunity for the Padres to pursue the same on the designated hitter front. Even with the team appearing content to run things out with the status quo, it remains difficult to underestimate A.J. Preller's willingness to do anything he can to improve the roster. With the window to do so waning, we should see the same level of clarity emerge at DH in the coming weeks. View the full article

Minnesota Twins ace Joe Ryan turns 30 years old this year. While father time may not be knocking on his door yet, talks of regression and constant adjustments begin on the other side of 30 years old. What if we told you he's already planning for that, and he's only getting better with age? In this video, we discuss his varied pitch arsenal, attack on opposing hitters' launch angle and his knack for location that should bode well for him well into his 30s.View the full article

Outfielder Jordyn Adams, who has 38 games of MLB experience over the last three seasons, has signed a minor-league contract with the Milwaukee Brewers, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The deal likely includes an invite to spring training, which begins next week. Adams, who plays center and right field, was the No. 17 overall pick in the 2018 draft out of a North Carolina high school. At the same time, Adams had committed to play football at North Carolina as he was a four-star wide receiver recruit. He chose a pro baseball career over football, receiving a $3,472,900 signing bonus from the Angels. While not possessing terrific power, having topped out at 15 homers in the minors in 2023, he does have speed, swiping 44 bags also in 2023, all at Triple-A. That was the same year he made his MLB debut, coming up Aug. 1. In two MLB stints, he played in 17 games, putting up a .128/.125/.128 slash line in 40 plate appearances. He had another cup of coffee with the Angels in 2024, but again struggled offensively with a slash line of .229/.289/.314 in 38 plate appearances over 11 games. He was designated for assignment that offseason, but was quickly picked up by the Baltimore Orioles for the 2025 season. He again got a small amount of MLB action, going hitless in five plate appearances over 10 games. In seven minor-league seasons, Adams has a .247/.328/.377 slash line with 52 homers, 288 RBIs, and 158 steals in 195 chances. One major drawback is that he does strike out quite a bit, with 758 in 2,738 plate appearances in the minors, a whopping 27.7% of the time. It would be hard-pressed for Adams to crack the Brewers' Opening Day lineup, but he would be a solid depth piece at Triple-A Nashville. He is the latest player to join the non-roster invitees to spring training. View the full article

According to Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Toronto Blue Jays are one of "several teams" interested in free agent left-hander Framber Valdez. Valdez, 32, has been one of the most consistent frontline starters in the league over the past six years, with a 3.23 ERA and an MLB-leading 73 wins since 2020. His 973 innings rank fifth among pitchers, while his 20.3 FanGraphs WAR ranks sixth. Without a doubt, Valdez is the top free agent left unsigned. There is no question that Valdez would make the Blue Jays better. Indeed, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reported earlier this year that the Jays met with the southpaw at the GM Meetings in November, but that was before they signed Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract. They later signed Cody Ponce, creating a logjam in the rotation we've all been talking about ever since. Presumably, Toronto's renewed interest in Valdez indicates that his asking price has dropped substantially. With a week to go before pitchers and catchers report to spring training, it's hard to believe he'll still be able to command the five-year, $150 million deal DiamondCentric expected him to sign earlier this winter. The Blue Jays might not really have room for Valdez, and he clearly wasn't their top priority, but if his price is low enough, Ross Atkins and John Schneider can figure out how to make it work. Valdez may be on the wrong side of 30, and the character concerns are well-founded, but he's also a multi-time All-Star with significant postseason experience. If this front office was willing to give Kyle Tucker a 10-year contract, there is surely a number at which they'd pull the trigger on Valdez. View the full article

Garrett Mitchell is the epitome of a tantalising baseball player. With incredible athleticism, a feel for the big moments, and raw power to all fields, there is very little he couldn't achieve on the baseball field. To answer some under-the-hood concerns with his swing path (centered around conquering the high fastball), Mitchell made some changes in the 2024-25 offseason, with the goal of a more rounded, consistent profile and the ability to make better contact across the strike zone. I covered some of the changes he needed to make here in November 2024—soon after which we saw a video of Mitchell from Driveline. There, he worked on creating a flatter plane to the ball, staying tight and working behind the ball. It seems he didn't lose any of his pop in doing so: How Did He Handle The High Fastball In 2025? It's important to remember this is a very small sample—just a month's at-bats—but there were some notable changes in his whiff rates from 2024 compared to the 2025 season, especially in the upper third of the strike zone: Let's restrict our focus to four-seam fastballs only, and include just the middle and upper portions of the strike zone, to see how Mitchell fared. Again, this is a small sample due to Mitchell's season-derailing injuries, but the changes are significant. Mitchell's quality and quantity of contact against four-seam fastballs soared in this small sample of 25 qualified offerings, with an improved attack angle in his swing bearing proof of a changing process. His exit velocities were up, his whiff rates were way down, and his expected batting average and slugging metrics showcased his output well. If we limit this sample to just the top of the strike zone (again, an even smaller size), Mitchell's whiff rate dropped from 48% to 33%, with an average exit velocity of 95.0 mph. If we include sinkers and cutters in these locations to increase the sample size, the same story repeats itself: Mitchell is whiffing less and finding better launch angles, thanks to improved attack angles in his swing. With Mitchell's keen eye at the plate, he doesn't need to do damage on pitches in the upper third of the zone; he just needs to be able to make contact and stay in an at-bat. He made real strides here in 2025, and it should hold him in good stead for 2026, if he can maintain that new swing path after another shoulder surgery last summer. The Timing Trade-Off This was a large change to Mitchell's swing—the type of change that's been the downfall of many others with swing-and-miss concerns (see: Joey Wiemer). While working in cages and at Driveline was beneficial to bed in his adjusted swing path, it's likely that his focus on breaking and off-speed pitches took a back seat. Mitchell was still adjusting to his timing on non-fastballs as spring training rolled around and continued in season, which reduced some of the damage we've become accustomed to. While Mitchell did struggle with high fastballs in 2024, you threw breaking pitches inside the strike zone at your peril. Thankfully, nobody warned Phil Maton about that: Interestingly, this is where Mitchell took a step back. With the majority of his off-season work centered around the high fastball, Mitchell struggled to time up anything off-speed. Only three of his 13 batted balls against breaking pitches inside the strike zone had a launch angle between 0° and 30°, and not one was between 5° and 25°. He was late getting to pitches, but this appears more of a timing issue than a mechanical one. His attack angle was largely similar to his production in 2024, and his hard-hit rate was still quite productive; he just wasn't catching these offerings out in front of him with the same regularity. Mitchell's timing should have improved with playing time, a boon painfully removed from his 2025 season in May, but all the indicators are there for Mitchell, if he can just stay on the field, to break out in a big way during 2026. His bat speed was higher. He was making contact with high fastballs, and punishing those that missed over the heart of the plate. We saw those under-the-hood developments from Mitchell that we've been itching for, even though the surface results didn't quite match up to those indices. If he can stay on the field, Mitchell's ceiling is still as high as anyone on this team. View the full article

The Royals' farm system remains a work in progress, ranking in the lower half of the league according to most publications and prospect analysts. That said, it's come a long way since JJ Picollo took over as President of Baseball Operations in 2023. With the help of Brian Bridges, the Royals' Scouting Director, and Daniel Guerrero, who leads International Scouting, the Royals have added a lot of talent who could make the farm system even more prestigious in 2026. When it comes to top prospects, I wrote about 20 who could have a major impact on the Royals' farm system or Major League squad in some capacity next season and beyond. However, there are many other prospects in the Kansas City organization worth watching, even if they are not on the Royals Keep list. In this post, I am going to highlight five pitching prospects who may not be getting much "prospect hype" but could make serious progress in the Minor Leagues this season. I consider these five "sleeper" pitching prospects and will identify them from different levels of the Royals' farm system. There will also be a companion post highlighting five "sleeper" position player prospects for 2026. Any graphics or tables are courtesy of TJ Stats. Eric Cerantola, RHP (Projected Starting Level: Triple-A) The Royals added Cerantola to the 40-man roster last offseason after posting a 2.97 ERA and 31.4% K rate in 72.2 IP with the Northwest Arkansas Naturals (Double-A) and Omaha Storm Chasers in Triple-A. The 2021 5th round pick primarily pitched in Triple-A last year and made 38 appearances and pitched 49 innings. In that sample, he saw his ERA rise to 4.04 and his K rate drop to 29.6%. Even though he didn't see any time with the Major League squad in 2025, Cerantola made some promising progress that could hint at his readiness for a MLB debut in 2026. While his ERA was higher last year than in 2024, his 3.64 FIP was actually better than the 5.38 FIP he posted in Omaha in 14.1 IP. He also lowered his HR/FB rate from 13.6% in 2024 (with NWA and Omaha) to 7.8% with the Storm Chasers last year. Considering Omaha is considered the fifth most hitter-friendly ballpark in Triple-A, according to park factors, this kind of ability to minimize the long ball was an impressive feat. In addition, he still struck out batters in bunches (29.6% K rate) while still maintaining decent control (18.3% K-BB%). The zone rate was pretty erratic, but he still was able to generate plenty of chases and whiffs last season, according to TJ Stats. Cerantola posted a 28% chase rate, which was around league average. That said, he had a strong 37.2% whiff rate and a slightly above-average xwOBACON of .330. Those are promising signs that Cerantola developed a better feel for his pitches out of the bullpen in Triple-A last season. The only issue is that Cerantola's pitches didn't profile well on a TJ Stuff+ end. His slider, his primary pitch, which he threw 53% of the time, was an above-average offering with a 104 TJ Stuff+ and 51.2% whiff rate. However, his four-seamer was mediocre, to put it nicely. It had an 85 TJ Stuff+ and 18.5% whiff rate, both poor marks. For Cerantola to solidify a spot in the Royals' bullpen in 2026, developing his changeup should be a key priority. Even though he threw it only 1.0% of the time, it still had a 33.3% whiff rate. Making the changeup a bigger part of his arsenal could help him lessen his four-seam usage and thus make him a more effective reliever overall who could be better prepared for Major League hitters. Dennis Colleran, RHP (Projected Starting Level: Double-A) Colleran mostly pitched in Low-A Columbia and High-A Quad Cities a season ago. He started the season with the Fireflies, posting a 4.06 ERA, 3.31 FIP, and 29.8% K rate in 31 IP. However, it was his tenure with the River Bandits that got prospect analysts to pay closer attention to him. In 21 outings and 34.1 IP in the Midwest League, he posted a 1.69 ERA, a 25% K rate, a 14.4% K-BB%, and 0.82 WHIP. What made Colleran such an effective reliever for Quad Cities was not just his ability to limit runners on the basepaths (via base hit or walk), but his propensity to induce hitters to keep the ball on the ground (43% groundball rate) and in the yard (9.4% HR/FB rate). A seventh-round pick in the 2024 MLB Draft by the Royals, Colleran showcased some solid command in Quad Cities, resulting in some impressive strike metrics. He posted a 48.5% F-Strike%, an 11.4% Swinging Strike rate, and 28.6% CSW. While those aren't elite by any measure, they are still impressive and encouraging, especially combined with his groundball rates. The former Northeastern product pitched in Surprise in the Arizona Fall League and held his own over 7.2 IP, as seen below in his TJ Stats summary. Colleran posted a 1.17 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, and 28.6% K-BB% with the Surprise Saguaros. His FIP was a little higher at 3.54, but that's still a solid number, especially considering the small sample. Like his time with Quad Cities, Colleran's ability to limit productive contact was on full display in Arizona, as illustrated by his .262 xwOBACON. The TJ Stuff+ metrics this fall were mixed. In addition to a 97 overall mark, his sinker had a 91 TJ Stuff+, and his four-seamer had a 92 TJ Stuff+, both below average. That said, both pitches still succeeded in different ways. His sinker only allowed a .140 xwOBACON, and his four-seamer induced a 30% whiff. His cutter also had a 102 TJ Stuff+, and his slider had a 103 TJ Stuff+, showing that he has plus pitches in his arsenal. Hence, if Colleran can be successful in specific ways with his fastball pitches, he may be able to get better results with those pitches long-term than his stuff metrics would indicate. Colleran received a non-roster invite to Major League camp this spring. While he is a long shot to make the team out of camp, he could impress the Royals coaching staff and leverage that Spring Training experience into a successful Minor League campaign in 2026. A.J. Causey, RHP (Projected Starting Level: Double-A) Causey was another 2024 Royals Draft pick (5th round) who pitched with Colleran in Quad Cities and in Surprise in the AFL. However, the former Tennessee product eventually matriculated to Northwest Arkansas, where he saw far more innings (33 IP) than Colleran (1.0 IP). In 48 appearances and 73.1 IP with the River Bandits and Naturals, Causey posted a 1.72 ERA, 2.28 FIP, 0.90 WHIP, 26.5% K rate, and 20.5% K-BB%. He was particularly effective in Double-A ball, posting a 1.91 ERA, 2.39 FIP, and 18.9% K rate in 33 IP with the Naturals. Like Colleran, the atypical-throwing righty (15-degree average arm angle) earned an invite to the AFL this past fall. Unfortunately, the stats weren't as sterling as his draft classmate, as seen below. In 9.2 IP, Causey posted a 7.45 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. However, his FIP was much better at 4.39, and he struck out hitters in bunches (29.5% K rate) while limiting free passes on the basepaths (27.3% K-BB%). He also sported excellent chase (31.6%) and whiff rates (38.7%), as well as a decent xwOBACON. The main issue with Causey in the AFL was that he maybe threw TOO MANY strikes in hittable parts of the zone and hitters made him pay, especially since most of his repertoire rates as below average on a TJ Stuff+ end (91 overall). His curve may arguably be the best pitch in the Royals' farm system (106 TJ Stuff+; 62.5% whiff rate in AFL). Unfortunately, his slider was the only other pitch that had a TJ Stuff+ over 92. Causey will get some time in Major League camp this spring, which will be good exposure for him when it comes to getting tutelage from pitching coaches Brian Sweeney and Mike McFerran. Hopefully, they can help him make some tweaks to his pitches, especially his fastball offerings, which can help him be more effective as he climbs up the ladder in the Kansas City farm system. Hiro Wyatt, RHP (Projected Starting Level: High-A) A third-round pick in the 2023 MLB Draft out of Connecticut, Wyatt was seen as a bit of a sleeper pitching prospect last year after posting a 2.67 ERA in 27 IP in Low-A Columbia in 2024. As expected, he started the year again with the Fireflies. Unfortunately, the results weren't as impressive. At 20, he posted a 4.78 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 22.3% K rate, and 14% K-BB% in 21 outings (20 starts) and 79 IP. His FIP was slightly better at 4.47, but some prospect analysts felt that Wyatt, selected as a bit of a project in the 2023 MLB Draft, didn't make expected progress after a solid Low-A debut in 2024. While his numbers didn't blow fans or experts away, there is still a lot to be hopeful about with Wyatt in 2026. Wyatt didn't generate a whole lot of whiffs in 2025 (8.4% SwStr%). However, he still did a good job generating strikes overall, as illustrated by 47% F-Strike%, 17.6% Called Strike rate, and 26.1% CSW. He also kept the ball on the ground effectively, inducing a GB% of 47.1%. Lastly, his HR/FB% wasn't exactly low at 11.9%, but it's tolerable and could be subject to improvement, especially if he can do a better job of inducing whiffs in 2026. The righty is only 21 years old and isn't arbitration eligible until 2027. Thus, the Royals have time to continue developing him as a pitcher in their system. He has the potential to be a solid No. 3-5 starter, especially with his ability to work efficiently (2.69 K/BB ratio) and keep the ball on the ground. Even if he plateaus a bit with more innings, he at the very least could be a solid reliever at the Major League level, with setup man potential. He is not an "elite" prospect, but Wyatt is one Royals fans should watch closely in 2026, likely in High-A Quad Cities. Kyle DeGroat, RHP (Projected Starting Level: Low-A) When it came to Complex League pitchers, David Shields (our No. 3 prospect) and Kendry Chourio (our No. 4 prospect) got more hype, and rightfully so. They did matriculate to Low-A and found various levels of success in the Carolina League, after all. While DeGroat didn't get as much time in Columbia (he only made one start with the Fireflies), he did show some progress in the Complex League, and he is a talented pitcher who shouldn't be taken lightly in the Royals farm system. At the surface level, DeGroat doesn't seem like a prospect worth following too closely. He posted a 4.11 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 4.89 FIP in 12 outings (11 starts) and 46 IP in the Arizona Complex League. Furthermore, he was a 14th-round pick in the 2024 MLB Draft. That said, he fell in the draft because he was seen as a firm commitment to the University of Texas at the time. Instead, DeGroat surprised folks and accepted a $350,000 signing bonus. Here's what Burnt Orange Nation, a Texas Longhorns blog, said about DeGroat's pitching profile after he signed with the Royals. Even though he's an older prep prospect (he just turned 20 on January 30th), it seems like the Royals handled DeGroat with more kid gloves than they did Shields and Chourio, other teenage pitching prospects. He also had a rough stretch from June 23rd to July 14th, where he gave up 15 runs (12 earned) in four starts. Take that stretch away, and his ERA numbers look a whole lot different. Lastly, he put up a solid outing in his lone Low-A performance, allowing no runs and no hits while walking one and striking out three in 3.1 IP. He is on the outside-looking-in right now when it comes to the Royals' Top-20 Prospects list. However, if he makes progress in Columbia, it wouldn't be surprising to see him not just a Top-20 prospect, but maybe a Top-15 or Top-10 one by midseason. That's how much upside DeGroat still has. View the full article

It may not always feel like it outside, but spring training is coming soon. We're just a few days away from pitchers and catchers officially reporting to the Cubs' complex in Mesa, Ariz., and we're less than two months from regular-season Chicago Cubs baseball. Between now and then, we will see lots of predictions and guesswork offered up. Who's going to lead off? Who's going to make the Cubs bullpen? Will they run a true six-man rotation when Justin Steele returns? I have no answers to those questions today, but I can offer a prediction I feel is a stone-cold lock: Ian Happ is going to have another good season—and, as a bonus prediction, Cubs fans online will attempt to skewer the guy, anyway. My faith in Happ lies, first and foremost, in the data; the man is incredibly consistent. For Happ's career, he sports a 116 wRC+. Last year, Happ finished with a 116 wRC+. Between 2022 (an important line of demarcation for him, something I'll explore later) and 2025, Happ's best season based on wRC+ was a 122, and his lowest was a 116; he's basically the same guy year after year. Look, below, at a chart comparing major data points over those years. There are a few data points that stand out as slightly different (e.g., the strikeout rate in 2024) but you're mostly splitting hairs at that stage. If you're worried that Happ's 2025 being a sign of things to come, I have some good news; he had, maybe, his best season ever, when we consider batted-ball data instead of simple results. The Cubs' left fielder posted the second-best expected wOBA of his career last year, .020 higher than his actual wOBA, suggesting that his slight step backward in 2025 was due largely to some bad luck, tough Wrigley Field park effects, and/or the deadened baseball. This isn't a situation where you'd have expected him to under-perform his xwOBA, either. For example, players who don't pull the ball a lot can sometimes hide behind inflated expected data, because expected data doesn't take into account where you hit the ball and pulling the ball produces better numbers. Happ posted some of his highest pull rates of his career last year, though, so that's not the problem. The oft-maligned outfielder wasn't always this consistent. He posted a 106 wRC+ and a 105 wRC+ in two of his first five seasons. Famously, he was demoted to Iowa for much of the 2019 season due to his issues at the plate, and his 2021 season (105 wRC+) was a follow-up to a 132 wRC+ posted in 2020. Part of the reason for this was that that version of Happ struck out a lot more than he does today. The 2022 campaign was an important year for Happ, as he worked on limiting his strikeout rate and unlocked this more consistent version of himself. Some fans charge Happ with being streaky within seasons, even if he looks metronomic when you glance at his baseball card. While it's true that (for instance) Happ was much better in the second half than the first last season (101 wRC+ vs. a 139), his batted-ball data told a different story, which I wrote about in early August. But truthfully, all hitters are streaky. Everyone can get hot, and everyone can get cold. Freddie Freeman had a run last year between June 1 and July 28 (spanning nearly 200 plate appearances) in which the eventual Hall-of-Fame first baseman posted a 63 wRC+. That's not to say that Happ is Freeman, but if it can happen to Freeman, well, it can happen to Happ, without proving the latter a flake. What makes a hitter "streaky" to begin with, I don't think we can truly say yet. While the improved bat-to-ball skills make Happ more consistent year-to-year, it doesn't stabilize him from game to game. In a study done by Justin Choi of FanGraphs, he found no correlation between strikeout rate and streakiness within a season. Another FanGraphs entry, this time by Ben Clemens, dove into Michael Harris II's 2025 season and suggested that while hot-and-cold streaks beget each other to a degree, the reasons behind them are hard to fully parse. The reasons are probably so idiosyncratic—so tied to both the specific skills and approach of a hitter and the circumstances of any given moment—that explaining the phenomenon broadly is impossible. We can say, at least, that it's not entirely a bad thing to be streaky. In the first article, the least consistent hitter in 2022 was another future Hall of Fame player, Mike Trout, who finished that year with a 176 wRC+. We have to look beyond the ebbs and the flows to see the true greatness of Happ. In baseball, true talent is seen in year-to-year results. Freeman, despite his terrible two-month tumble, still posted a 139 wRC+ last year. His career line? A 141 wRC+. Happ's true talent always shines through at the end of the year, even though it's not quite Freemanesque. It's why he, too, landed right on the nose of his career line. 736165a0-30ecda66-6e3ab337-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 What we can take from this is simple: Happ is about as much of a lock to finish somewhere around a 115-120 wRC+ as you can find. He's probably more of a lock than any other Cubs player to be what you expect him to be. Yes, there will be a few weeks wherein he's red-hot and a few weeks wherein he's ice-cold, but that's a baseball issue, not an Ian Happ issue. The Cubs' starting left fielder is not going to be Cooperstown-bound at the end of his career, but he's shockingly easy to predict as a well above-average player. Try to keep that in mind when he's struggled for a few weeks. It's pretty likely your tweet/skeet/reddit post (or comment right here at North Side Baseball) will eventually look pretty silly, when he inevitably ends up exactly where he always does. Don't panic when he has a rough month, instead, know that Happ is truly a security blanket for the Cubs. There are lots of unknowns in the season ahead, but it's nice to know that you have a player like Happ, who will eventually just be the guy you think he'll be. View the full article

It may not always feel like it outside, but spring training is coming soon. We're just a few days away from pitchers and catchers officially reporting to the Cubs' complex in Mesa, Ariz., and we're less than two months from regular-season Chicago Cubs baseball. Between now and then, we will see lots of predictions and guesswork offered up. Who's going to lead off? Who's going to make the Cubs bullpen? Will they run a true six-man rotation when Justin Steele returns? I have no answers to those questions today, but I can offer a prediction I feel is a stone-cold lock: Ian Happ is going to have another good season—and, as a bonus prediction, Cubs fans online will attempt to skewer the guy, anyway. My faith in Happ lies, first and foremost, in the data; the man is incredibly consistent. For Happ's career, he sports a 116 wRC+. Last year, Happ finished with a 116 wRC+. Between 2022 (an important line of demarcation for him, something I'll explore later) and 2025, Happ's best season based on wRC+ was a 122, and his lowest was a 116; he's basically the same guy year after year. Look, below, at a chart comparing major data points over those years. There are a few data points that stand out as slightly different (e.g., the strikeout rate in 2024) but you're mostly splitting hairs at that stage. If you're worried that Happ's 2025 being a sign of things to come, I have some good news; he had, maybe, his best season ever, when we consider batted-ball data instead of simple results. The Cubs' left fielder posted the second-best expected wOBA of his career last year, .020 higher than his actual wOBA, suggesting that his slight step backward in 2025 was due largely to some bad luck, tough Wrigley Field park effects, and/or the deadened baseball. This isn't a situation where you'd have expected him to under-perform his xwOBA, either. For example, players who don't pull the ball a lot can sometimes hide behind inflated expected data, because expected data doesn't take into account where you hit the ball and pulling the ball produces better numbers. Happ posted some of his highest pull rates of his career last year, though, so that's not the problem. The oft-maligned outfielder wasn't always this consistent. He posted a 106 wRC+ and a 105 wRC+ in two of his first five seasons. Famously, he was demoted to Iowa for much of the 2019 season due to his issues at the plate, and his 2021 season (105 wRC+) was a follow-up to a 132 wRC+ posted in 2020. Part of the reason for this was that that version of Happ struck out a lot more than he does today. The 2022 campaign was an important year for Happ, as he worked on limiting his strikeout rate and unlocked this more consistent version of himself. Some fans charge Happ with being streaky within seasons, even if he looks metronomic when you glance at his baseball card. While it's true that (for instance) Happ was much better in the second half than the first last season (101 wRC+ vs. a 139), his batted-ball data told a different story, which I wrote about in early August. But truthfully, all hitters are streaky. Everyone can get hot, and everyone can get cold. Freddie Freeman had a run last year between June 1 and July 28 (spanning nearly 200 plate appearances) in which the eventual Hall-of-Fame first baseman posted a 63 wRC+. That's not to say that Happ is Freeman, but if it can happen to Freeman, well, it can happen to Happ, without proving the latter a flake. What makes a hitter "streaky" to begin with, I don't think we can truly say yet. While the improved bat-to-ball skills make Happ more consistent year-to-year, it doesn't stabilize him from game to game. In a study done by Justin Choi of FanGraphs, he found no correlation between strikeout rate and streakiness within a season. Another FanGraphs entry, this time by Ben Clemens, dove into Michael Harris II's 2025 season and suggested that while hot-and-cold streaks beget each other to a degree, the reasons behind them are hard to fully parse. The reasons are probably so idiosyncratic—so tied to both the specific skills and approach of a hitter and the circumstances of any given moment—that explaining the phenomenon broadly is impossible. We can say, at least, that it's not entirely a bad thing to be streaky. In the first article, the least consistent hitter in 2022 was another future Hall of Fame player, Mike Trout, who finished that year with a 176 wRC+. We have to look beyond the ebbs and the flows to see the true greatness of Happ. In baseball, true talent is seen in year-to-year results. Freeman, despite his terrible two-month tumble, still posted a 139 wRC+ last year. His career line? A 141 wRC+. Happ's true talent always shines through at the end of the year, even though it's not quite Freemanesque. It's why he, too, landed right on the nose of his career line. 736165a0-30ecda66-6e3ab337-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 What we can take from this is simple: Happ is about as much of a lock to finish somewhere around a 115-120 wRC+ as you can find. He's probably more of a lock than any other Cubs player to be what you expect him to be. Yes, there will be a few weeks wherein he's red-hot and a few weeks wherein he's ice-cold, but that's a baseball issue, not an Ian Happ issue. The Cubs' starting left fielder is not going to be Cooperstown-bound at the end of his career, but he's shockingly easy to predict as a well above-average player. Try to keep that in mind when he's struggled for a few weeks. It's pretty likely your tweet/skeet/reddit post (or comment right here at North Side Baseball) will eventually look pretty silly, when he inevitably ends up exactly where he always does. Don't panic when he has a rough month, instead, know that Happ is truly a security blanket for the Cubs. There are lots of unknowns in the season ahead, but it's nice to know that you have a player like Happ, who will eventually just be the guy you think he'll be. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins and Derek Falvey mutually agreed to part ways last week, bringing an end to an era defined equally by long-term vision and by uneven results. Falvey arrived with a reputation as a process-driven executive who believed in infrastructure, development, and patience. His departure opens the door to reflection on what actually changed during his tenure, especially in the area most closely tied to his reputation when he was hired. When the Twins brought in Falvey prior to the 2017 season, they were not just hiring a new voice: they were hiring a philosophy. Falvey came from Cleveland’s front office, where he was widely viewed as one of the architects of a pitching pipeline that seemed to endlessly produce big-league-caliber starters. Cleveland stayed perennially competitive by developing arms internally, turning mid-round draft picks and overlooked prospects into reliable rotation pieces. Meanwhile, the Twins were seen as an organization lagging behind in player development, particularly when it came to pitching. Years of conservative approaches, limited data use, and inconsistent development plans left the organization scraping by with soft-tossers and mid-level veteran pickups. Falvey was charged with modernizing the system and building something sustainable, from overhauling coaching philosophies to investing in technology and process at every level of the minors. The goal was not quick fixes, but a pipeline that could consistently supply the major-league roster. Understanding where the pitching pipeline started is critical to evaluating where it ended. When Falvey arrived, leading into the 2017 season, the Twins' top pitching prospects included Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, Tyler Jay, Kohl Stewart, and Felix Jorge. That group generated some optimism in ranking circles, but had very little lasting impact at the major-league level. None of them became long-term contributors, and several struggled just to reach the big leagues. The cupboard was bare, and that reality meant any meaningful pitching pipeline would take years to build. There were legitimate successes in player development during the Falvey era. Bailey Ober emerged as a mid-round pick who added velocity and refined his command to become a dependable starter. David Festa and Zebby Matthews followed similar paths, pushing themselves into the team’s future plans after entering pro ball without much fanfare. The Twins also showed an ability to creatively deploy arms. Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Louis Varland all transitioned to bullpen roles and became dominant late-inning options. Joe Ryan may ultimately stand as the biggest success story of the Falvey regime, even though he was not drafted by the organization. When the Twins acquired him for Nelson Cruz’s expiring contract, few evaluators saw more than a potential mid-rotation starter. Minnesota refined his pitch usage, helped him better understand how to attack hitters, and put him in a position to maximize his strengths. The result was an All-Star-caliber arm and a pitcher who became a rotation anchor, highlighting how the organization could add outside talent and still meaningfully elevate it through development. The story of the pitching pipeline may not be finished yet. Minnesota’s 2025 trade deadline sell-off brought a wave of new arms into the organization, including Kendry Rojas, Mick Abel, Ryan Gallagher, Sam Armstrong, Garrett Horn, Taj Bradley, and Geremy Villoria. Some of these pitchers could play a role as soon as 2026, while others represent longer-term bets that will take years to fully evaluate. Falvey’s lasting legacy in Minnesota may forever be tied to the results of the 2025 trade deadline selloff. That depth is also reflected in the current prospect rankings. Minnesota’s system is now crowded with pitching talent such as Connor Prielipp, Dasan Hill, Andrew Morris, Charlee Soto, Riley Quick, Marco Raya, James Ellwanger, and C.J. Culpepper. Some of these arms will develop into starters, some will thrive in relief, and others will never make it out of the minors. That uncertainty is the nature of pitching development, but the volume of talent is notable compared to where things stood when Falvey arrived. In the end, Derek Falvey’s pitching legacy with the Twins is less about a finished product and more about a transformation in progress. The organization he inherited had little margin for error and almost no internal pitching depth. By the time he exited, Minnesota had reshaped how it identifies, develops, and deploys arms throughout the system. That shift represents meaningful progress, even if the results did not always align with expectations. The difficulty with judging a pitching pipeline is that timelines rarely cooperate. Arms take years to develop, and many of the pitchers most closely tied to Falvey’s vision are still working their way through the minors. Some will become contributors, others will not, but the volume of talent and variety of profiles now in the system suggest a healthier foundation than what existed a decade ago. If nothing else, they've had more ammunition to make trades over the last handful of years, as Falvey's pipeline has produced pitchers other teams want. That Falvey's conservatism in the trade market left some of that value untapped is a strike against him, but at least he created those opportunities. Duran, Jax and Varland were key pieces of the 2025 fire sale and brought back much of the young talent mentioned above. The team's work to identify and begin the development of Chase Petty allowed them to swap him for Sonny Gray in the 2021-22 offseason. Whether Falvey ultimately succeeded may depend on what happens next. If the Twins begin to regularly graduate starters and high-leverage relievers from the current crop of prospects, his tenure will look far more favorable in hindsight. If those arms stall or flame out, the criticism will remain that the pipeline was never fully delivered. For now, Falvey leaves behind a system that is better positioned than the one he found, even if the final verdict on his pitching legacy is still years away. So did Falvey complete the Twins’ pitching pipeline, or did he simply lay the foundation for someone else to finish the job? Add a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

The Boston Red Sox pulled off one of their more questionable trades of the offseason, where they managed to move Jordan Hicks to the Chicago White Sox. Going with Hicks to Chicago was David Sandlin, two players to be named later and $8 million. Returning to Boston was pitcher Gage Ziehl and a player to be named later. Ziehl, who was drafted in the fourth round of the 2024 draft by the New York Yankees, is now with his third organization in three years after being traded to the White Sox for Austin Slater. The right-hander appeared in 22 games, making 21 starts as he split time between Single-A, High-A, and Double-A. He tossed 107 innings while striking out 90 batters and walking just 19. Ziehl doesn’t follow the typical profile that Craig Breslow tends to target in pitching as he stands just six feet tall and doesn't possess elite extension, but he has been described as “compact but strong and durable”. The right-hander holds a deep arsenal, featuring a cutter, sweeper, slider, four-seam fastball, changeup, and curveball all thrown with a repeatable high three-quarters delivery. Doing so has allowed him to locate his pitches with precision. Of all his pitches, the changeup stands out as his premier offering. In 2025, batters whiffed on 24% of his changeups, with the pitch generating a 34% strikeout rate. Batters also only managed an average exit velocity of 81 mph. Despite that, the pitch was only thrown eight percent of the time, a number that should see an increase under Boston’s pitching development program. While Ziehl may not be overpowering (his fastball averaged just 92.2 mph last season), he showed an ability to throw strikes (67.7 strike percent) while limiting walks (4.2% rate), two traits that will allow him to move through the minors quickly. Dependent on contact management, Ziehl relies on his assortment of secondary offerings to help generate weak contact. His Baseball America scouting report states that his fastball was “tweaked to generate more cut in 2025." It also suggests that he won't be able to add a ton of velocity down the line, though that may not matter since “Ziehl relies on his mid-80s sweeper and 89 mph cutter, throwing those two pitches nearly 70% of the time with near-even distribution. His sweeper has above-average spin rates and is his best swing-and-miss offering." Unless Ziehl’s secondaries can make a leap in quality, he’s likely destined as an up-and-down starter or long-relief reliever at best. At worst, he would provide organizational depth for the upper minors and be an emergency call-up. After a strong campaign in 2025, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him open the 2026 season with Double-A Portland. View the full article

If you followed the 2025 Blue Jays, you probably lived and died with their ups and downs, and you knew exactly what that team was about. Sure, some people will say they were defined by their throwback, contact‑heavy offense. Others will point to the depth, the way the 24th man on the roster mattered just as much as the fourth. Or maybe the team’s focus on chemistry, which emerged as the engine that drove their high-energy, defense-forward playoff run. Yet, there’s little question that the 2025 Jays were the comeback team. They came back from a last‑place finish one year earlier. They came back from a rotation that looked like it was being held together with duct tape and crossed fingers. They consistently came back in games, as highlighted by their league-leading 49 comeback wins. And they came back individually: George Springer turned back the clock, Bo Bichette rediscovered his swagger, and half the roster seemed to find a second life. That was their identity. That was their heartbeat. That was the story. It might be best illustrated by an article from The Athletic in late May entitled "Why the 2025 Blue Jays are still searching for their ‘true identity.” They overcame that early-season inconsistency and re-emerged as contenders. Like most sports, baseball doesn’t let you live in last year’s story for long. And as the Jays step into 2026, the vibe and roster are considerably different. This isn’t a comeback year. This isn’t a “prove we’re not terrible” year. This isn’t even a “we’re contenders now” year. This is the year of possibilities. Gone are any questions of rebuilding. The Blue Jays are the reigning AL champions, and Rogers has opened the purse strings. At the same time, some new players will need to fill the shoes or roles of departing players like Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Seranthony Domínguez, Ty France, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. It's a roster full of players who could take real steps forward. A rotation that could be sneaky great or quietly shaky. A lineup that could hit for both contact and power. A team that could be anything from a 90‑win threat to a frustrating middle‑of‑the‑pack group. This is the “infinite possibilities” Jays. It is a premise that is both exciting and terrifying. Winning helps gel chemistry. It provides shaky teams with confidence and lowers the pressure that all major league teams have to handle in their own way. When the 2025 Jays started to win consistently, they did so by sharing the load and relying on each other. It didn’t hurt that moves like trading for Domínguez and Shane Bieber paid quick dividends. Not to mention the immediate impact of Trey Yesavage when he was called up. The signing of Dylan Cease, and to a lesser extent Cody Ponce, might serve to lessen the high expectations for both Yesavage and Bieber this upcoming season. Maybe, but maybe not. If Cease’s return to the American League doesn’t go smoothly, or Ponce’s return to MLB, then it will be paramount that Yesavage meets or exceeds expectations. On top of that, it is still unclear whether Bieber will be available when the season starts. Bieber doesn’t have to be the Cy Young version of himself anymore, but the Jays need him to be healthy and solid. If Bieber rebounds, the team suddenly has a veteran anchor to complement Yesavage’s upside and Kevin Gausman’s reliability. The Jays have a wealth of starting pitching, with some arms like Ricky Tiedemann waiting in the wings. Even if injuries become an issue, there might be some breathing room. The success of the starting rotation will also impact the effectiveness and success of the bullpen. If starters can consistently get into the sixth or seventh inning, then the bullpen will stay healthier and stronger as the season progresses. The biggest unknown when it comes to the Jays’ identity in 2026 is the offense. No Bichette (or Kyle Tucker) means the Jays will be leaning on players that had career years in 2025 or need a bounce-back season. In addition, they’ll be relying on an everyday player (Kazuma Okamoto) who has never played in MLB. When the Jays signed Anthony Santander to a big contract before last season, they must have been thinking about all the success he’d had against the Jays as a member of the Orioles. In 45 games versus the Jays, he hit .314 with 50 hits, including 15 home runs. The whole idea was that he’d either set up Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., or they’d set him up while providing no breathing room for pitchers to navigate the heart of the team’s order. Instead, he sputtered in 2025. He hit .175 with six home runs and 18 RBIs. If he can hit the way he did in 2024 again, the Jays have the potential to be unstoppable offensively. Daulton Varsho was already elite defensively. He seemed to come into form at the plate last season. If that carries over into 2026, the Jays suddenly have a legitimate two‑way threat in the outfield. The same can be said for Addison Barger, who broke out in 2025 and seems to have the potential to become a superstar. That potential can only come to fruition if he gets a chance to play. John Schneider is going to have to figure out how to juggle his surplus of outfielders. Springer’s outstanding 2025 campaign was in large part due to staying healthy by DH-ing more than playing in the outfield. But even if Springer is the everyday DH, that leaves Santander, Varsho, Barger, Nathan Lukes, Davis Schneider, Myles Straw, and possibly even Okamoto vying for outfield reps. In the infield, can Ernie Clement maintain the momentum he built through the regular season and especially the playoffs? Will Andrés Giménez be able to find consistency at the plate while still settling in at shortstop? And what about Vladdy and Alejandro Kirk? What does 2026 hold for them? The thing about a roster with “infinite possibilities” is that it can turn into a sort of “what if” team. The range of outcomes is frustratingly massive. In 2025, the Jays marched back from a terrible 2024 and surprised people. They played with heart and grit and chaos. This season is all about discovering what their true potential is. They could take a leap. They could stall out. They could dominate the AL East. Fans could be wearing paper bags over their heads by August. Last year was about redemption. This year is about potential. The 2025 Jays were easy to root for because they were easy to understand. They were the underdogs who refused to quit. The 2026 Jays are harder to define. They’re not underdogs anymore. They’re not favourites either. They’re something in between. They are a team with a wide range of possible futures. That’s what makes them compelling. That’s what makes them nerve‑wracking. That’s what makes them the “infinite possibilities” Jays. The 2026 Blue Jays could be great. They could be average. They could be maddening. They could be magical. But they won’t be boring. This is a team built on possibility. And possibility is the most dangerous and thrilling thing in sports. View the full article

Right-hander Riley Pint, the No. 4 overall pick of the 2016 draft, has a minor-league deal with the San Diego Padres. It is likely to include an invitation to spring training, which begins next week. Selected by the Colorado Rockies out of a Kansas high school, the now 28-year-old Pint didn't take the mound at all in 2025 in his only season with the Cleveland Guardians' organization due to an undisclosed injury. Pint had spent all of his previous career with the Rockies, but made only five MLB appearances over the 2023 (one game) and 2024 seasons (four) as a reliever. Pint's journey also included a retirement during the 2021 season, but he returned the following year. In his minor-league career, Pint put up a 5.30 ERA with two eye-popping rates of 13.5 walks and 18.9 strikeouts per nine innings in 193 games, including 40 starts. But Pint went to Driveline this offseason, which included a pro day in which he hit 97.4 mph on his fastball and a 95 mph sinker. He also threw a sweeper and a slider. Driveline helps train players through state-of-the-art techniques. He will definitely be an interesting arm to watch this spring. View the full article

Nick Mears describes himself as a calm guy who, off the field, loves the peace and quiet of nature and rural areas. But in contrast, he admits — and former teammates confirm — that he’s incredibly intense when he takes the mound. As is true for many players, his path to the majors was full of challenges. Mears pitched for Rocklin High School near Sacramento. He blew out his elbow in his senior year of high school, but, not wanting to miss this special year in any young player’s trajectory, he played through it without an intact ligament, still throwing 92. He went on to have Tommy John surgery after high school, gray-shirting in his first year at Sacramento City College to rehab. He missed his second year of college due to injury as well, this time involving an off-field dirt bike accident that snapped his collarbone in half. Mears had mixed success in his final years of college, but, after an impressive stint with Minnesota’s Northwoods League, he had his eye on getting drafted. In his final college year, his effectiveness increased, as did attention from pro scouts. Then, in a span of a few months, life hit him hard: a grandfather-like figure passed away, his uncle took his own life, another grandpa passed away, and a former teammate committed suicide. In speaking candidly about this series of losses in interviews, Mears describes not being able to handle all of it at once. He tried to suppress the feelings, but says those feelings were eating him up from the inside. His life was slowly falling apart, and he felt depressed. His coaches, seeing him struggle, called his parents without Mears' knowledge and brought everyone together for a meeting. They told him they loved him and knew he could still contribute to the team, but suggested it might be best for him personally to take some time away from baseball. Because baseball was such a core part of his identity, Mears felt somewhat thrown that stepping away from the sport was even an option. This was a pivotal learning experience, and Mears credits his coaches for having his back and helping him see how important it was to take care of his well-being off the field. He did take some time away from baseball, but found his way back via a second successful stretch in the Northwoods League. This led to offers from a handful of MLB teams, and the right-handed reliever eventually signed with the Pirates as an undrafted minor-league free agent in August of 2018. Mears came up through the Pirates organization relatively quickly, making his big league debut in August of 2020. After appearing in 36 games across the 2020-22 seasons, he was designated for assignment and picked up by the Rockies. He started the 2023 season in Triple A, but was called up again in April. He bounced back and forth between Triple A and the big league club all year, in part because of two stints on the IL and associated rehab assignments thanks to a nagging left oblique strain. All told, he pitched in 57 big league games for the Rockies before they traded him to the Brewers at the 2024 trade deadline. It was in the full 2025 season with the Brewers, an exciting crew that had the winningest regular season in baseball that year, that Mears really seemed to find his stride. Relying mostly on his fastball and slider combo, with an occasional curve thrown in, he posted a 3.49 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 14.9 K-BB% — the best marks of his career so far — across 63 appearances. He also garnered an elite chase rate that ranked in the 93rd percentile across MLB. This success was part of what made him an enticing trade piece. He was traded, along with Isaac Collins, to the Royals in December 2025, so he’s about to settle in with his fourth MLB organization in his career. Mears has spoken openly about the ups and downs of his career and how important it is to keep the mental side of the game healthy. For him, that starts with setting very lofty but attainable goals, maintaining his high work ethic, and also seeing himself as a whole person first and as a baseball player as just one part of his identity. He also says the key is to go back out each night with an edge, even if you got your teeth kicked in the night before. Mears says some of the players he has the most respect for in baseball are the guys grinding for years in the minors who still have an extraordinary work ethic and who are still chasing their dreams. It’s this resiliency, this day in and day out grind, that is an essential ingredient of a baseball player. As he begins 2026 with the Royals at 29 years old, he’ll be heading into his seventh season in the big leagues (even though many of those years have included bounces back and forth to the minors). According to MLB Royals beat reporter Anne Rogers, the Royals have had interest in Mears going back to 2023 during his time with the Rockies, and the organization anticipates him pitching mid- to high-leverage innings out of the pen. He’ll be arb-eligible and under team control through the 2027 season, and he has no options remaining. So, how does Mears come into a new season? What’s his mindset? Two years ago in February, as he was about to start a season with the Rockies, he spoke on the To the Show podcast about coming in hungry. “It’s easy for me to say, ‘Oh, yeah, I have a job.’ But then, at least for myself, I feel like I get complacent with that, and I want to be hungry. I want to go out there and prove it again, because nothing in this career is guaranteed. There are more guys just like me in the minor leagues who want my job. So in my eyes, I think, I got to come in, I got to prove it again. I want to prove it to not only the coaches and the team, but I want to prove it to myself.” View the full article

As any veteran of the baseball industry will tell you, the hardest tool to scout is the feel to hit. There's so much reactivity, so fragile a balance in it, that it's hard to gauge what a hitter can do over just a few games. It's hard to project how a player who can dominate at one level might do at the next. It's hard, even, to tell when a player has established a skill, and when they're due for regression. It was easier to scout power and arm strength and speed and defensive ability even in the days before advanced technology captured players' movements in fine detail, but it's even truer now. While we now know on what percentage of swings a batter makes contact and how often they chase outside the zone, every hitter has different ideal contact and chase rates, and those numbers don't tell us about the quality of contact a player is making. We have bat speed and exit velocity and launch angle and pull rate, but those things more reliably help us measure power than hit tool. There remains a bit of magic in baseball, and it lives in the moment between the release of the pitch and the moment it reaches the plate. That's when a batter has to make incredibly rapid, subconscious decisions, adjust their finely tuned and extraordinarily fast swing, and find the center of the ball with the barrel of their bat. Of course, now, we also have a number for that. It's far from perfect, but it does give us some useful information. Today, let's consider Statcast's Squared Up rate, and the data (both signal and noise) it provides us for the purposes of projecting two key Cubs hitters for 2026. First, we need to define our terms. Statcast tags a batted ball as Squared Up if it leaves the bat with at least 80% of the possible exit velocity, given the speed of the swing and the incoming pitch. Physics gives us a knowable maximum exit velocity, once we have the speeds and approximate masses of bat and ball, so basically, Squared Up balls are just that: ones on which the batter successfully put lots of wood on the ball, so that they got as much out of their swing as they could. Generally speaking, the guys you'd expect to run high Squared Up rates do so. Luis Arraez has led the league in each of the last two seasons, with roughly 40% of his swings resulting not only in contact, but in meeting the ball squarely. That it's Arraez atop the list illustrates the drawback and the broader nature of this skill, though. Usually, guys trade some bat speed for the bat control that allows them to make such solid contact, which means that a squared-up ball can also be a relatively weakly hit or low-value one. It's undeniably good to run a high Squared Up rate, but that skill tends to belong to slow swingers, and compensates (with varying degrees of success) for a dearth of power. Specifically, the Cubs have two players for whom squaring the ball up is vital—whose games hinge on doing it consistently. Nico Hoerner is one of the best sheer contact hitters in baseball, but if he were prone to mishitting the ball, that wouldn't make him a good player. With new metrics, we can see more clearly than ever that he's an elite pure hitter, because he squared the ball up on roughly a third of his swings last year, ranking very near the top of the league. Hoerner lacks power, because his bat speed is well below average and he doesn't have an approach that lends itself well to pulling the ball in the air. As last year progressed, though, he proved that he can hit the ball squarely with enough consistency to be a plus-plus hitter, even without either a high walk rate or average pop. Alex Bregman brings even more to the party. He uses an extremely patient approach to inform and augment his own sky-high Squared Up rate, and his swing is geared to lift the ball to the pull field. He, too, has subpar bat speed, a concern I noted rather dourly earlier this winter. However, he makes some of the most efficient contact in baseball—even topping Hoerner. Because of the things they don't do well, Hoerner and Bregman have to show an elite feel for hitting. Happily, both of them do. The question is: Will that skill stick? To answer it (in part), I took all 211 hitters who had at least 500 swings in both 2024 and 2025, and compared the percentages of those swings that resulted in Squared Up balls in play for each player from year to year. Here's the resulting chart. The R² of this plot is 0.685, which implies a very strong correlation from year to year. In other words, for the limited data we have so far, squaring the ball up is an extremely sticky skill. We might well find that it gets less neat and tidy over time, and with more seasons of data, we could do a more robust study of aging curves, but intriguingly, this population of players got better, as a group, from 2024 to 2025. Their Squared Up rate went from an average of 22.5% to 23.6%. Bat speed tends to deteriorate as a player ages, so one explanation for the increase in squaring the ball up is hitters consciously trading the bat speed they can't hold onto for better bat control. It's probably more complicated than that. There's something to be said for the theory that the proliferation of these numbers in clubhouses and hitters' meetings has helped players train better for efficient contact, but it's also probably more complicated than that. All we can say for sure, at this moment, is that how you did last year does a fine job of predicting how you'll do this year, when it comes to squaring the ball up. That sounds like very good news for Bregman and Hoerner, and it probably is. However, there's another wrinkle we need to consider. Go back to the chart above, and notice that Bregman and Hoerner are further from the trend line than most of the rest of the league. They each improved significantly at meeting the ball squarely in 2025, even though they were above average even before making that leap. Hoerner will be 29 this year; Bregman will be 32. Most of the time, when hitters past the age of 26 or so go from good to elite at something, they're due for regression. That invites the real concern that they'll each come back to Earth in 2026, and square the ball up less often. This is why, for instance, all the advanced projection systems (PECOTA: .289; ZiPS: .293; Steamer: .304) expect Hoerner to run a lower BABIP than his career mark of .307, let alone the .313 he put up in his stellar 2025 campaign. It's hard to call anything about this luck, because we're so far down to the process aspect of hitting, studying how well a hitter's hand-eye coordination manages the task of getting lumber on leather. Still, there's variance and entropy at work, here. Pitchers will make adjustments, to both Hoerner and Bregman. It won't be easy for either to sustain the level of success they've had at squaring up the ball lately. To figure out which is more likely to retain their skills and have a successful 2026, we can approach this in a slightly different, better way. Kyle Bland of PitcherList created an app to display bat-tracking data back in 2024, and one of its features is a more continuous measurement of squared-up contact. Rather than creating a binary and tagging a ball as either squared up or not, his model tracks the specific percentage of the maximum possible exit velocity on each batted ball. Here's the distribution of Hoerner's batted balls by Squared Up%, for (most of) 2025. He's very, very good at hitting the ball squarely, and though he rarely gets all of a pitch—he's just ok at generating contact efficiency north of about 92%—he also rarely mishits one at all. That's a steady hitter. Bregman's distribution is a bit more impressive, and almost laughable: Bregman creates a whole lot of extremely efficient contact, though he's also considerably more likely to whiff altogether (Squared Up%: 0) than is Hoerner. Which of these two is more likely to sustain their success at squaring it up, going forward? Hoerner, being younger, gets a certain edge. Bregman's swing is flatter, too, and flat swings generally lead to lower Squared Up rates. However, Bregman has honed his approach so well that he's locked in to swing only at pitches he can consistently square up. Hoerner's is a more expansive, aggressive, all-fields approach. We should also consider what happens if each player's suite of swings gets a tiny bit less efficient, across the board. For Hoerner, he would slosh back much closer to league average. Bregman might see his strikeout rate spike a bit, because his swings getting less efficient would mean getting out of the top end of the league in overall contact rate, but he has that big bulge in the upper 80s and 90s for Squared Up% that would come down only to the low and middle 80s. In other words, he can stay efficient with his contact even if he loses some efficiency in his swing. Hoerner lacks that luxury. Bregman is a safer bet than Hoerner to hold onto this skill, but each of them did something at an elite level last year that tends to stay good once a hitter has shown they can do it. That makes it worth mentioning one more player of whom the same things are true: Michael Busch. He was much more prone to sub-80% contact efficiency than were Hoerner and Bregman last year, but he was also better than they were at getting the crosshairs on a ball and achieving perfect (or virtually perfect) Squared Up-itude. This is a slugger with great feel for contact, in profile. Note the dearth of swings that generated less than 70% contact efficiency. If he was going to be that wrong, he stayed committed to his 'A' swing and came up empty. When he got one right, though, he gave himself a chance to get it especially right. Bland's app also tracks rolling Squared Up% for hitters throughout the season, and Busch's timeline tells a great story. In early May, he simply locked in on the ball, and never ceased to be so. Like Hoerner and Bregman, Busch lacks elite bat speed, especially for a player who needs to produce more power than either of the others do. However, from May 15 through the end of the season, he slugged .539, and then he went on an October power binge, to boot. Much of that can be attributed to his ability to square the ball up, and he's another good candidate to do so again in 2026. We still have a lot to learn about hitting, but the data are making it a bit easier to say some things with confidence. If nothing else, these numbers prove that Hoerner, Busch and Bregman have plus hit tools, albeit in ways unique to each of them. They're the anchors of the Cubs lineup for the coming season, and by the end of the year, we'll know even more about how each of them do it—and therefore, more about how the thing is done by everyone. View the full article

Milwaukee Brewers pitching prospect Frank Cairone posted an Instagram story of him throwing a ball just a month after being involved in a serious vehicle collision that left him hospitalized. The 18-year-old left-hander, who was a second-round draft choice by the Crew last summer, was involved in a two-vehicle collision Jan. 3 late at night in Franklin, N.J., and flown to an Atlantic City, N.J., hospital. According to police, Cairone was the driver of a vehicle that was hit by another vehicle that blew through a stop sign. In the Instagram update, Cairone is in sweats and a baseball cap and slowly throws a yellow ball against a wall. While that is certainly a terrific sign for Cairone, it is unknown whether he will report to spring training, let alone pitch this season, as he continues to recover from the serious injuries he sustained. A passenger in Cairone's vehicle was also hospitalized with leg injuries. Cairone, a 6-foot-2, 195-pounder, was the 68th overall pick in the 2025 draft out of Delsea Regional High School and turned down a commitment from Coastal Carolina to sign with the Brewers for a $1.1 million signing bonus. He did not pitch for any Brewers affiliate, instead working out in Arizona in anticipation of making his professional debut in 2026. View the full article

The Twins dipped back into the waiver wire this week, grabbing right-handed pitcher Jackson Kowar after he was cut loose by Seattle. Minnesota had room to make the move and plenty of motivation, continuing a busy stretch of roster shuffling that keeps the back end of the pitching staff very much in flux. Kowar’s path to Minnesota is a winding one. Seattle designated him for assignment shortly after acquiring catcher Jhonny Pereda from the Twins, creating an odd bit of organizational overlap. Minnesota, meanwhile, had recently cleared space on the 40-man roster through a pair of trades with Colorado, moving Edouard Julien and Pierson Ohl for Jace Kaminska and cash considerations. That left one open 40-man spot, and the Twins chose to use it on a familiar type of gamble: big arm, big questions. Entering his age-29 season, Kowar still brings eye-catching velocity. His four seamer and sinker live in the upper 90s, and the raw stuff has never really been the concern. Translating that power into outs has been another story. Across 91 major league innings with Kansas City and Seattle, Kowar has been hit hard, posting an ERA north of 8.00, but his FIP is below 6.00. His walk rate sits in the low teens, which is not unheard of for power relievers, but the strikeouts have lagged behind expectations. Even in the high minors, results have been uneven, with an ERA hovering near five. Seattle also exhausted Kowar’s final minor league option last season, leaving him without roster flexibility. That reality often shortens the leash, especially for a pitcher still searching for consistency. Once the Mariners needed space, Kowar became expendable. From the Twins' perspective, the fit is obvious. The bullpen has open spots and needs arms that can fill the void after last season’s trade deadline selloff. While the front office has talked about a return to contention in 2026, the relief group remains light on proven arms. Beyond the reunion with Taylor Rogers and the addition of Eric Orze, there has not been much reinforcement. That context makes Kowar an understandable add. Minnesota can afford to see if a new environment and some mechanical tweaks unlock something closer to the pitcher scouts once dreamed on. The opportunity will be there, simply because innings need to be covered. There is also very little long-term commitment. Kowar is out of options, and that makes it tough to stick on a big-league roster without a proven track record. If the experiment fails, the Twins can move on just as easily as they claimed him. For now, this looks like another low-risk attempt to plug a hole with upside. The stuff gives you a reason to watch, even if the track record urges caution. In a bullpen full of question marks, Kowar becomes one more name trying to turn raw velocity into something the Twins can actually trust. View the full article

Charlotte Christian High School in North Carolina has some impressive alumni in the world of sports. If you want to start with basketball, Seth and Steph Curry went to the school. Daniel Bard and his younger brother, former Twins first-round pick Luke Bard, went to the private school. Former Vikings center Garrett Bradbury started on the gridiron and the baseball field for the Knights. He was a legit power-hitting catcher prospect. In 2013, he found himself catching future Twins starter Bailey Ober. And now the newest member of the Twins organization was a sophomore on that 2013 Charlotte Christian Knights baseball team. On Tuesday afternoon, the Twins claimed right-handed pitcher Jackson Kowar from the Seattle Mariners. They had DFAd him when they acquired Jhonny Pereda from the Twins last week. Bradbury went to North Carolina State and played football. Wise choice for him. Ober went to the College of Charleston where he was a freshman All American and a 2017 draft pick. Kowar was the top prospect of the group. In 2015, he was drafted by the Tigers but instead went to the University of Florida. In 2018, the Royals used their first five draft picks on college pitchers. Their first pick (18th overall) was fellow Gators starter Brady Singer. Kowar was the 33rd overall pick. One pick later, they took Daniel Lynch out of the University of Virginia. With the 40th pick (another Competitive Balance pick), the selected lefty Kris Bubic from Stanford. Their second-round pick (58th overall) was Jonathan Bowlan from the University of Memphis. Things haven't gone easily for any of those picks. Singer has had a solid career; He's been work at least 3.0 bWAR in three of the past four seasons. He spent five seasons with the Royals before getting traded to Cincinnati for Jonathan India. Lynch made 51 starts for the Royals between 2021 and 2023. The past two seasons, he has pitched in 68 games out of the Royals bullpen. Bubic has spent parts of the past six seasons with the Royals. He missed significant time in 2023 and 2024 due to Tommy John, but he's been really good since returning, a new pitcher. He made the All-Star team in 2025 and posted a 2.55 ERA over 116 1/3 innings. Bowlan pitched in three games for the Royals between 2023 and 2024. In 2025, he worked in 34 games, all but one out of the bullpen. In December, he was traded to the Phillies for Matt Strahm. While his upside and talent were as high as any college pitchers from that 2018 draft, Jackson Kowar has been unable to find any sustained success in the big leagues. He debuted with eight starts and a relief appearance in 2021. He went 0-6 with an 11.27 ERA. In 2022, he pitched in seven games out of the bullpen and posted a 9.77 ERA. In 23 games in 2023, he went 2-0 despite a 6.43 ERA. He missed the entire 2024 season after Tommy John surgery. He returned in 2025 with the Mariners. In 15 games, he posted a solid 4.24 ERA. Combined in 54 MLB games and 91 innings, he has an 8.21 ERA, a 1.93 WHIP. 8.9 K/9 and 5.7 BB/9. Kowar has always thrown hard. Before the injury, his fastball averaged 95-96 mph. That jumped to 96.9 mph in 2023. Upon his return in 2025, he averaged 97.3 mph with the fastball. He threw more fastballs in 2025, and he also threw more sliders where came in at an average of 86.2 mph. Previously, he had always thrown between 30 and 43% changeups. The Mariners had him nearly completely drop the pitch (threw it just 5% of the time). With the addition of Kowar, the Twins 40-man roster is full. View the full article

Despite the rest of the division jockeying for pole position in the NL Central, the Chicago Cubs have one of the most lethal offenses in professional baseball, capable of setting the tone in the Senior Circuit. Michael Busch, the North Side's powerful yet underrated first baseman, impressed insiders with a scorching star turn in the late goings of his club's 2025 regular season and playoff run. We're about to get our first look at a Cubs lineup that, if it stays healthy, could be excessively difficult to get through, like the extended version of a Peter Jackson film. With the likes of Alex Bregman and Pete Crow-Armstrong holding down the middle of the lineup, Busch's early placement in Craig Counsell's lineup aligns the club for early offensive outbursts against opponents that would find themselves playing catch-up, looking on as the North Siders exchange high fives in the middle of the diamond. Teams in the majors average a barrel rate of 8.6%; factoring in Bregman and Moises Ballesteros, your Chicago Cubs sport a barrel rate of 10.9%. Though he rarely gets credit for it, Ian Happ is one of the more proficient leadoff men in the game, with a career OBP of .343. Putting that kind of proficiency in front of a slugging Busch in the two-hole opens up a window for early offensive production likely to produce a rally and create situations for the opposition where they'd have little choice but to pitch to other power hitters like Bregman and Crow-Armstrong. There are no easy outs in this lineup. It's easy and quite a lot of fun to witness Busch step into the batter's box. A lot like the "C" in his club's primary logo, his Baseball Savant page is bright red. His 76% hard-hit rate backs up his slug and his overall power numbers from 2025. Though his All-Star teammate in centerfield overshadowed his output, Busch smacked 34 home runs, 25 doubles, and five triples in 2025. His vision, timing, and swing decisions are elite. By extension of that, his whole club figures to be elite in 2026. Good teams don't just have big names — they have balance. The 2026 version of this Cubs lineup is one of the most balanced in years. Last year, Busch was kept from a resoundingly splendid season due to his performance against left-handed pitching. But, not only did he trounce all pitching hands in his dominant postseason run, thanks to Jed Hoyer, he's got all kinds of insurance surrounding him to make sure he gets some good stuff to offer on. For the 150th time in baseball history, Chicago's North Side team is about to embark on a new season. Myriad pieces are in place to assure that version of this club is a memorable one for all the right reasons. Chief among those reasons will be whatever Michael Busch can accomplish atop the lineup. View the full article