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Nick Pivetta suffered a right elbow flexor strain that kept him out of San Diego's rotation for much of the year. Now, he's the arm the Padres are relying on to keep their season alive, as they face a Brewers lineup eager to learn from its struggles away from home during the 2025 playoffs and close out the series. Pivetta pitched to a 2.87 ERA for the Padres in 2025, throwing 181 2/3 innings. He leaned heavily on a high release point and a cut-ride four-seam fastball, pairing it with some unusually high in-zone breaking-ball usage to work hitters north and south. His pitches tunnel well together, generating above-average chase rates and in-zone swing-and-miss. That said, Pivetta is a fly-ball pitcher who allows plenty of hard contact. His pretty ERA in 2025 was underlied by an expected ERA of 3.96 and an expected FIP of 3.85. The surest way to induce weak contact is with horizontal movement. Pivetta's very vertical movement profile eschews that aim in favor of maximizing whiffs. Petco Park does a good job of holding fly balls, which has helped Pivetta since he joined the Padres. He's been one of the easiest pitchers in baseball against whom to pull the ball in the air, a tendency that typically creates damage, but Pivetta has somehow paired the second-highest air-pull rate of his career (22.6%) with a career-low home-run-per-fly-ball rate of 4.3% (in a small sample) this season. That makes this a fascinating stylistic matchup. The Brewers don't actively look to pull the ball in the air, and they hit more ground balls than any other team in baseball. Their ability to turn Pivetta's fly-ball tendencies into damage could be a central factor in this game. The challenge for Milwaukee, then, is knowing when (and how) to deviate from their usual approach fruitfully. The Brewers don't need to become a pull-heavy, fly-ball offense; they need to recognize the mistakes Pivetta gives them and punish those pitches when they arrive in their preferred hitting zones. TJStats gives Pivetta's four-seam fastball a high Stuff+ grade. The pitch has generated more than 20 inches of induced vertical break on average this season, although his high release point makes that movement slightly less of an outlier than it might initially appear. He averages around 94 miles per hour with the pitch. The four-seamer is his primary offering to both sides of the platoon, but Pivetta attacks left- and right-handed hitters quite differently with the rest of his arsenal. How Can The Left-Handed Hitters Do Damage? It may be tempting to lean heavily into a left-handed lineup against Pivetta because of his ability to spin the ball. However, he's actually posted reverse platoon splits over the last two seasons, which probably has to do with the arm slot and the verticality of his arsenal. His xFIP is higher against left-handed hitters over that span, though, and it's the left side of the platoon that has produced the highest pull rate against him, at 46%. When Brewers left-handers do pull the ball in the air, they typically do so with extreme force. How Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell and Christian Yelich attack Pivetta could therefore be key to deciding this game. Mitchell is of particular interest. Long renowned for his struggles against high four-seam fastballs but capable of doing considerable damage against in-zone breaking balls, he could find an opportunity against Pivetta's curveball. Pivetta has located roughly 50% of his curveballs inside the strike zone against left-handed hitters, about the same rate as his in-zone fastball usage. That allows him to play with chase both above and below the zone, but against a hitter like Mitchell, it also presents an opportunity to attack a pitch that catches too much of the zone. The Brewers also have to be careful with a fastball that doesn't generate a ton of swing-and-miss, but does induce enough swings underneath it to consistently avoid the barrel. Pivetta uses that focus to disrupt the swing timing on his in-zone curveballs. He's found some fortune with both pitches again this year, with the expected results based on quality of contact suggesting that (while each is a good pitch) both have overperformed, and the Brewers would love to see a regression to the mean in Game 3. How Can Right-Handed Hitters Attack Pivetta? Right-handed hitters see a more varied diet of pitches. Pivetta prefers his sweeper to the curveball against same-handed batters, while his cutter provides another wrinkle designed to keep hitters off the barrel. The cutter isn't a pitch he locates as consistently as the four-seam fastball, however, and it's taken some damage as a result: In fact, both the four-seamer and cutter have been susceptible to hard contact against right-handed hitters. Once again, though, he's managed to get some favorable results, relative to the quality of contact he's allowed. A 57% hard-hit rate on the four-seamer is telling, as is its 15.7% barrel rate. The sweeper is therefore vital to Pivetta's success. It generates in-zone swing-and-miss and chase, while also doing an excellent job of keeping hitters away from the barrel. The cutter acts as a bridge between the sweeper and four-seam fastball, and the relationship between the three pitches is clear in the Pitch Profiler chart below. The sweeper and cutter have strong ProMatch+ scores of 115 and 132, respectively, measuring how closely they imitate the shape of the fastball before breaking away. So How Do They Dismantle the Padres' Game 3 Starter? Ultimately, the Brewers don't need to reinvent their approach against Pivetta. They need to make him work in the strike zone, avoid giving away outs on his breaking stuff, and capitalize when his fastballs drift into hittable locations. Pivetta's ability to tunnel his pitches makes that easier said than done, but the underlying contact numbers suggest there are opportunities to exploit. The Brewers don't have to beat Pivetta at his game; they simply have to recognize which pitches they can damage and punish him when he gives them those opportunities. For left-handed hitters, the opportunity is in the air. Pivetta's curveball can be squared up when he leaves it in the zone, and his four-seamer doesn't generate enough swing-and-miss to completely neutralize hitters. The Brewers' left-handed bats have the power to punish those mistakes, particularly if they can pull the ball in the air rather than allowing Pivetta to turn contact into harmless fly balls. Right-handed hitters face a slightly different challenge. The sweeper is Pivetta's best weapon against them, so staying disciplined against it will be crucial. His fastballs, particularly the cutter, offer the greater opportunity for damage, but only if hitters can resist the temptation to chase the breaking ball and stay on pitches long enough to drive them. View the full article

With their season on the line, the San Diego Padres are relying on a pitcher that has certainly been tested this year. Right-hander Nick Pivetta will get the call to start Tuesday's Game 3 of the NL Division Series against the Milwaukee Brewers. First pitch is 6:38 p.m. (FS1). The Brewers lead the best-of-five series 2-0. Pivetta has experienced the highs and lows of a season. He was the Opening Day starter for the first time in his career, but he lasted just four games before hitting the injured list, walking off the mound in a start in mid-April. That injury would keep Pivetta out until September, when he returned to make four regular-season seasons. Pivetta, who did not face the Brewers this season, proved himself worthy in those outings to get the ball for Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series vs. the Chicago Cubs. He gave what the Padres expected, going 3⅓ innings, allowing a run on three hits with two walks and four strikeouts. That set the stage perfectly for the high-leverage arms in the Padres' bullpen to secure a 4-1 victory. Pivetta will face one Brewers hitter who has a great deal of success. That would be designated hitter Christian Yelich, who has a .389/.455/.833 slash line in 22 plate appearances, including two homers and nine RBIs. Another player with a much smaller sample size against Pivetta to be aware of is right fielder Sal Frelick, who is 2-for-5 with an RBI. Pivetta has held Brewers star left fielder Jackson Chourio hitless in three at-bats, while he has struck out catcher William Contreras six times in 13 at-bats. Nick Pivetta vs. Milwaukee Brewers: Current Batters Table Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP 1 Christian Yelich L 22 18 7 2 0 2 9 3 3 .389 .455 .833 1.288 0 1 0 0 1 2 William Contreras R 15 13 3 1 0 0 1 1 6 .231 .267 .308 .574 0 1 0 0 0 3 Brice Turang L 8 6 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 .167 .375 .167 .542 0 0 0 0 0 4 Gary Sánchez R 7 6 3 0 0 1 3 1 3 .500 .571 1.000 1.571 0 0 0 0 0 5 Jake Bauers L 5 4 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 .250 .400 .250 .650 0 0 0 0 0 6 Sal Frelick L 5 5 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 .400 .400 .400 .800 0 0 0 0 0 7 Joey Ortiz R 4 4 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 .250 .250 .500 .750 0 0 0 0 0 8 Bryse Wilson R 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 .250 .250 .250 .500 0 0 0 0 0 9 Jackson Chourio R 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 Provided by Stathead: Found with Stathead. See Full Results. Generated 10/5/2026. Going for the Brewers in Game 2 is right-hander Dustin May, who has a good history against the Padres, primarily from his time with the Los Angeles Dodgers. May did face the Padres once this season and was spectacular. Pitching for the St. Louis Cardinals, May threw a one-hit shutout on June 15, with superstar Manny Machado getting a seventh-inning single with two outs to break up the no-hit bid. Machado has faced May the most of any player on the current Padres roster, going 10-for-40 with two homers and five RBIs. Fernando Tatis Jr. is also hitting .250 vs. May (7-for-28, one homer, four RBIs). Ty France has had the best success, going 4-for-12 with a solo homer. France has also been the best hitter for the Padres this postseason, going 7-for-15 with a double and two RBIs. Machado (13 at-bats), Xander Bogaerts (14 at-bats) and Jackson Merrill (16 at-bats) each have five hits in the four games. The Brewers acquired May from the Cardinals at the trade deadline for two prospects. He didn't fare well in his 10 starts for the Brewers, putting up a 5.06 FIP (5.65 ERA) over 36⅔ innings. His walk rate was up from where it was with the Cardinals (9.3% from 7.6%), while his strikeout rate was very similar (23.5% with the Brewers, 23.1% with the Cardinals). Dustin May vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP 1 Manny Machado R 42 40 10 2 0 2 5 2 8 .250 .286 .450 .736 0 0 0 0 4 2 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 31 28 7 1 0 1 4 3 6 .250 .323 .393 .715 0 0 0 0 0 3 Jake Cronenworth L 25 21 5 0 0 1 1 3 4 .238 .360 .381 .741 0 0 0 1 1 4 Xander Bogaerts R 17 16 3 1 0 1 1 1 3 .188 .235 .438 .673 0 0 0 0 0 5 Ty France R 13 12 4 0 0 1 1 0 3 .333 .385 .583 .968 0 0 0 1 1 6 Jackson Merrill L 12 10 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 .000 .083 .000 .083 0 1 0 0 1 7 Gavin Sheets L 12 11 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 .091 .167 .091 .258 0 0 0 0 1 8 Freddy Fermin R 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0 0 0 9 Sung-Mun Song L 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0 10 Austin Hays R 4 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 .250 .250 .500 .750 0 0 0 0 1 Provided by Stathead: Found with Stathead. See Full Results. Generated 10/5/2026. View the full article

The 2026 season was a big one for Hendry Mendez, Riley Quick, Eduardo Tait, and Marco Raya, but not necessarily for the same reasons. Here’s a look at the four biggest prospect risers and fallers in the Twins’ system. View the full article

Jonah Tong took a major step forward in 2026, and the underlying numbers suggest his breakout was anything but a fluke. If he can build on what he showed, the Mets could have one of baseball’s most exciting young arms. View the full article

Owen and Jesse are proud (or not so proud) to look back on some pre-season over/under picks and bold predictions, some perfect, many hilariously wrong. Afterward, they get into the Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins press conferences and debate how much we should be taking and if they were satisfied with what the two bosses had to say. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jays-centre-podcast/id1846108462 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Bi7SzfpcqMo5xYWnbCeoL Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-jays-centre-podcast-300304824/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/2qk9wqxd Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@jayscentre View the full article

Despite being a mostly productive constant on and off the field through the Brewers’ last eight playoff berths, Christian Yelich has largely been a non-factor in the postseason. Entering this October, Yelich was a career .218/.347/.317 playoff hitter (84 OPS+). Despite usually hitting somewhere in the middle of the order, he has gone 74 at-bats without a playoff RBI, last driving in a run with his home run in Game 7 of the 2018 NLCS. That was still a small sample of just 121 postseason plate appearances, though. The real concern, entering the NLDS, was Yelich coming off his worst regular season. He was a below-average hitter for the first time in his career, hitting .235/.315/.378 (91 wRC+). At times, his swing looked stiffer and less adaptable. Even if Yelich is more limited as he enters his mid-30s, that doesn’t mean all of his skills have disappeared. His bat speed is nearly identical to last year, and he still makes sound swing decisions, running the third-lowest chase rate among Milwaukee hitters with at least 400 plate appearances. Pitches over the inner third of the plate became problematic this year, but when Yelich gets one over the middle or the outer third, there’s still enough juice in his bat to drive it. Those tools have helped Yelich start strong this October. He’s reached base three times in the first two games of the NLDS, but more importantly, he’s looked dialed-in from pitch to pitch. Here are all 30 pitches Yelich has seen in the series so far: Those are outstanding swing decisions. Yelich hasn’t offered at much outside the zone, including several near-misses just off the outside corner. Some of his best takes came in his ninth-inning walk on Sunday, the first of three walks against Mason Miller in the Brewers’ walk-off rally against one of baseball’s best closers. Yelich isn’t just getting away with being passive, either. He’s swung at nearly every pitch in the zone that hasn’t been on the corner, and those swings have looked solid. Yelich has put five balls in play so far, and three were well struck. Jackson Chourio and William Contreras have gotten attention for the biggest swings of the series, but Yelich has quietly had some of the best plate appearances. He broke up Michael King’s perfect game with a fifth-inning double in Game 2, then scored Milwaukee’s first run on Sal Frelick’s single. Yelich started turning the gears against Miller a few innings later. He may have sparked an earlier seventh-inning rally, had Jackson Merrill not made a leaping catch near the center-field wall. It’s a microscopic sample, so those positive plate appearances are hardly guaranteed to continue, but they’re worth highlighting. After his regular season, there was a valid argument that Yelich was not one of the nine best hitters worth starting in the Brewers’ playoff lineup. Now, process-wise, he looks like the best version of what he can be at this stage in his career. The Brewers named Yelich the first captain in franchise history during the final weekend of the regular season, but the expectation of driving the offense is now on Chourio, Contreras, Brice Turang, and other younger, more dynamic hitters. That might afford Yelich the freedom he needed this fall. He can still lengthen the lineup as a supporting contributor in the bottom half of the order. The first two games of the NLDS have hinted that this October could be different for the Brewers, and it could be different for him, too. View the full article

The Chicago Cubs were bounced from Major League Baseball's 2026 postseason with extreme prejudice. They scored one run in two games against the San Diego Padres, and headed home with far more questions than answers. While most of those questions were about the men on the mound, that the offense scored just one run across 18 innings raised a significant issue in its own right—one the team will need to address moving forward. Run production had already waned toward the end of September, for the team that scored more runs than anyone else in the league for the entirety of 2026. The Cubs' 850 runs were 18 more than the second-place Milwaukee Brewers, a rare standings win for the Cubs over their division rivals. They were sixth in the league in batting average (.251), second in on-base percentage (.339), and paced the league in isolated power (.177) and wRC+ (114). It was an offense that, by all accounts, should have been quite a bit better across even as small a sample as the Wild Card round. Sadly, though, there's a case that what happened is exactly what fans should have expected, under the circumstances. Pete Crow-Armstrong (the presumptive runaway winner for National League MVP) and second-half star Alex Bregman went a combined 0-for-15 with eight strikeouts and a walk. Those two, occasionally along with Seiya Suzuki, were the engine of the team's offensive structure. As went those two (or three), so went the offense as a whole. It's not that the Cubs were entirely reliant on two bats. A team doesn't lead the league in runs scored on the strength of a pair of hitters. However, Crow-Armstrong and Bregman did provide the only sustained production we saw from the team's lineup. This is where the Cubs stood production-wise from a month-to-month standpoint in 2026: March/April: 169 R (3rd), .261 AVG (4th), .353 OBP (1st), .166 ISO (7th), 119 wRC+ (3rd) May: 115 R (19th), .217 AVG (28th), .315 OBP (14th), .128 ISO (26th), 87 wRC+ (21st) June: 141 R (7th), .250 AVG (17th), .343 OBP (5th), .194 ISO (5th), 120 wRC+ (4th) July: 139 R (3rd), .266 AVG (4th), .342 OBP (3rd), .176 ISO (9th), 118 wRC+ (3rd) August: 178 R (1st), .271 AVG (1st), .349 OBP (2nd), .243 ISO (1st), 137 wRC+ (1st) September: 108 R (15th), .242 AVG (18th), .329 OBP (8th), .153 ISO (19th), 103 wRC+ (14th) There were only two months wherein the offense average-ish or worse. In May, for instance, each of Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Carson Kelly, and Nico Hoerner fell below 80 in wRC+. Kelly's 78 was highest; Swanson's 30 was a true black hole in the batting order. In September, Kelly took his turn being helpless (48 wRC+) as, once again, four starters fell well below the average threshold. Ian Happ's 85 paced that quartet. Ironically, Michael Busch's best work came when the team was otherwise struggling, but overall, he did more to weigh down the offense than to buoy it. From April through September, here's where each of the team's starters fell by wRC+ (organized alphabetically): Bregman: 104, 94, 92, 127, 177, 195 Busch: 68, 167, 118, 96, 104, 117 Crow-Armstrong: 87, 115, 235, 171, 185, 145 Happ: 126, 127, 90, 89, 108, 85 Hoerner: 130, 59, 62, 93, 105, 66 Kelly: 143, 78, 129, 68, 133, 48 Suzuki: 177, 51, 158, 160, 163, 107 Swanson: 118, 30, 127, 93, 125, 52 Crow-Armstrong and Bregman started the season slowly. Once they found their footing, though, they were locked in for the remainder of the year; Crow-Armstrong paced the league in fWAR by a wide margin (10.6), while Bregman went on to finish seventh (5.5). The remainder of the group, however, was largely unable to provide steadiness in terms of their production. Down the stretch, the only reliable help those two got came from Suzuki. With the exception of a brutal May and a closer-to-average September, he had another season of sustained production. However, while Crow-Armstrong and Bregman were each able to produce across a variety of situations, Suzuki ran into some trouble in the form of a ballooning strikeout rate (touching 26% even in strong months) and underperformance with runners in scoring position (.213 batting average for the season). He's as close a third member of the team's run production squad as the Cubs had this year, but there are always those small stretches that stop him from completely emerging as a slugging superstar. Only four regulars provided regular value at the plate, and much of Busch's was wrapped up in a career-best 13% walk rate considering; his ISO figure dropped more than 100 points from 2025. Bregman's percentile distribution looks as it always has. Crow-Armstrong's in illustrative of an MVP-caliber season. Suzuki has his approach and some other figures working his way. The rest are a smattering of limited skill sets that, as indicated by their run value, are unable to sustain production over a long stretch. Much of the positive work Swanson, Happ and Hoerner did came in April and May, too. By the end of the year, none of those three brought much to the table. That's where the 2026 Cubs ran into trouble. The floor for this group is high. But the ceiling is not especially impressive. The group, as a whole, is too streaky to have been expected to find success in the absence of production from Crow-Armstrong and Bregman. Each popped for a two-week or a month-long stretch. Big picture, though, this was always a two-man show, starring two top 10 fWAR players, with Suzuki occasionally popping in. As we saw in the final stretch of the year, that was ever going to be enough for the Cubs to compensate for their woeful assembly of the pitching staff. View the full article

While the Storm Chasers weren't very good in 2026, people expected them to be mediocre in the spring. After all, it's hard for a Triple-A team to generate much buzz when it's composed mostly of Double-A players and veterans trying to get one last chance in the Big Leagues. The Naturals, on the other hand, had loftier expectations. While they weren't exactly "prospect flush" compared to High-A Quad Cities and Low-A Columbia, they featured some prospects expected to take the appropriate developmental steps, with an MLB debut on the near horizon. Unfortunately, more top prospects disappointed in Northwest Arkansas than surprised. Shortstop Daniel Vazquez was supposed to build on a strong Arizona Fall League campaign and Spring Training, but only hit .246 with a .643 OPS in 451 at-bats (he fell out of our Top 20 at Royals Keep). Pitchers Drew Beam, Frank Mozzicato, and Felix Arronde were expected to matriculate to Triple-A or even the Majors this year with solid campaigns in Northwest Arkansas. However, none of these pitchers posted an ERA under 6.49, and they seemed primed to repeat at Double-A in 2027. The Naturals prospects tended to underwhelm, and their 57-79 record reflected that. They finished only ahead of the Wichita Wind Surge (Twins), who were last in the Texas League North division with a 55-81 record. While it's nice that Northwest Arkansas didn't finish in the cellar, they never were in postseason contention at any point in 2026. Nonetheless, some key prospects took steps forward in 2026, with four in particular standing out. As in our Omaha write-up, we will highlight the Hitter of the Year, Pitcher of the Year, Most Intriguing Prospect, and Biggest Riser from Northwest Arkansas this season. Hitter of the Year: Carson Roccaforte, OF The Naturals were carried primarily by Roccaforte, our No. 9 prospect at Royals Keep, who may be pushing for a starting outfield spot on Opening Day (especially if Kyle Isbel cannot bounce back after a down 2026). In 45 games in 2025 with the Naturals, the former 2023 Competitive Round pick slashed .290/.387/.475 with an .862 OPS in 212 plate appearances. He also hit five home runs, scored 32 runs, drove in 29, and stole 10 bases. Thus, Roccaforte already had a foundation to succeed in Double-A in 2026. Despite loftier expectations, Roccaforte continued to mash with the Naturals in 2026. In 504 plate appearances in Northwest Arkansas, the 24-year-old outfielder slashed .251/.333/.523 with an .856 OPS. While the batting average and OBP went down, the power skyrocketed. That is shown not just by his improved slugging, but by his 30 home runs in Double-A. He also stole 21 bases, making him a true 20-20 threat in the Naturals lineup. As a result, Roccaforte earned a promotion to Omaha in mid-August, and he seemed to do even better in Triple-A. He slashed .282/.362/.500 with an .862 OPS in 118 plate appearances with the Storm Chasers. He also hit five home runs, drove in 16 RBI, and stole 11 bases on 11 attempts (much more efficient than his 21 for 38 mark in Northwest Arkansas). By the end of 2026, Roccaforte became one of the rare members of the 30-30 club in Minor League history (he's the first to accomplish such a feat since 2023). With the Storm Chasers, Roccaforte still displayed strikeout (15th percentile K%) and whiff (10th percentile whiff%) issues, two things that have dogged him as a prospect since his days in Columbia. While the percentiles weren't as bad in Northwest Arkansas, he still rated on the lower end of the Texas League in both categories. Conversely, his power and ability to pull the ball are excellent, as shown in his Statcast percentiles below via TJ Stats. Isbel is coming off a rough season, hitting .224 with a .591 OPS in 323 plate appearances for the Royals last season. Over his MLB career, Isbel has never hit the double-digit HR mark in a single season, and his OPS hasn't been above .700 since his rookie year (.771), when he played 28 games. Looking at his percentiles, Roccaforte could offer a better profile than Isbel at the MLB level, especially if his power translates from Triple-A. With Royals President JJ Picollo claiming that Kansas City needs to upgrade CF this offseason, it's possible that Roccaforte can be the solution in some form, maybe an everyday one if he can lower the strikeouts and whiffs just a bit over the next year. Pitcher of the Year: Hunter Patteson, LHP The Naturals didn't get much dependable starting pitching in 2026. As noted before, Beam, Mozzicato, and Arronde, three pitchers expected to carry the Northwest Arkansas rotation, struggled mightily this season, which contributed to the club's poor record overall. However, one starting pitcher who held his own was Patterson, who posted a 4.52 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 99.2 IP with the Naturals this season. Patteson didn't overwhelm hitters with elite stuff or movement. A fifth-round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft out of Central Florida, the lefty lived on throwing strikes (59th percentile zone rate) and generating chase (58th percentile). While the chases didn't lead to many whiffs (20th percentile whiff%) or strikeouts (28th percentile K%), he kept the ball in the yard and generated plenty of outs in the field, both groundball and flyball. As a result of this strong, efficient approach, Patteson ranked in the top of the Texas League in ERA and BAA (batting average against) and was named the Naturals' Pitcher of the Month in both June and July. Because of his strong performance with the Naturals, Patteson earned a promotion to Omaha at the end of the season. The 26-year-old held his own, posting 1.96 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 18.1 IP. Much like his numbers in Double-A, the underlying data was a little more skeptical of Patteson with the Storm Chasers. His FIP was higher at 4.35, his K% was only 16.5%, and his K-BB% was 7.1%. Add a GB% of 37.5%, and it doesn't seem like Patteson has the right recipe to succeed at the MLB level. Furthermore, his TJ Stuff+ metrics weren't exactly impressive, as evidenced in the TJ Stuff+ season pitching summary below. Overall, Patterson posted a 90 TJ Stuff+ with a 22.2% chase rate, 17.7% whiff rate, and 46.6% zone rate. On a positive note, he did a great job minimizing hard contact in Omaha, as evidenced by his .311 xwOBACON. Patteson's best offering was his slider, which generated a 94 TJ Stuff+, 30.8% whiff rate, and .282 xwOBACON. The former Central Florida product shares physical similarities with Daniel Lynch IV, though Patteson's stuff pales in comparison. However, like Lynch, a move to the bullpen could help Patteson's pitch mix and stuff play up more. For an organization lacking lefty arms out of the bullpen, Patteson could find a niche as a lefty reliever in 2027 or 2028 if he can slightly improve his pitch quality. Most Intriguing Prospect: Hunter Owen, LHP Owen made 17 starts and pitched 98 innings overall between Double-A and Triple-A this season. With the Naturals, he pitched 94 innings and posted a 5.94 ERA. Safe to say, based solely on ERA, Owen didn't appear to be an impressive pitching prospect. However, when looking deeper into his profile, Owen is more intriguing and could be an arm who could matriculate to the Royals bullpen sooner than fans may think. With the Naturals, the former Vandy product generated a 14.4% SwStr% (66th percentile), 32% O-Swing% (77th percentile), 25.1% K% (57th percentile), and only a 9.1% BB% (61st percentile). The CSW could've been better (44th percentile), and he allowed too many fly balls (10th percentile GB%), but these metrics and his 4.56 FIP showed that Owen was a better pitcher than his ERA indicated. The lefty particularly dominated in August, striking out 45 batters that month, an MiLB high. Owen had a cup of coffee in Omaha, making three relief appearances. In four innings of work, he generated ground balls at a high rate (57.1% GB%) and posted a solid K-BB% (14.3%). Overall, the stuff metrics weren't great, though his slider was a premium pitch in Omaha. Owen's slider had a 104 TJ Stuff+ with a 64.9% zone rate. His four-seamer, though lacking stuff (89), did generate above-average chase (28.6%) and xwOBACON (.251). A move to relief could help his four-seamer tick up in velocity and stuff, which in turn could help the other three offerings in his arsenal. The Royals will likely move Owen to the bullpen to fast-track him to Kansas City. Can his stuff improve in a relief role? If so, Owen may be the biggest sleeper in the upper Minors of the Royals' farm system pitching-wise, and he could make a push for a spot on Opening Day, depending on how Spring Training goes. Biggest Riser: Luke Pelzer, OF When looking at hitting prospects, sometimes it's important to find guys who do all the little things right, even if they don't have the big tools. Steven Kwan is an example of this in Cleveland, and Nicky Lopez was one for the Royals (though his success was more fleeting). Pelzer may be the next prospect in this mold to make his way to the Majors, even if his tools may not impress prospect experts and scouts. Drafted in 2025 in the 17th round out of the University of Illinois-Chicago (a mid-major school), Pelzer has done nothing but hit, which has helped him move up quickly in the Royals' farm system. Pelzer began the year in High-A Quad Cities and slashed .337/.404/.506 with a .910 OPS in 295 plate appearances. While he hit only four home runs, he hit 18 doubles, scored 45 runs, drove in 59 RBI, and stole 28 bases on 32 attempts. Though he didn't have traditional home-run power, the 23-year-old could go yard from time to time, as evidenced by this grand slam in July below. After a strong performance with the River Bandits, Pelzer earned a promotion to Northwest Arkansas in late July. In 42 games with the Naturals, the outfielder didn't skip a beat. He slashed .337/.414/.405 with an .819 OPS in 186 plate appearances. He dropped his whiff and K rates in Northwest Arkansas, while increasing his walks and Z-Contact%. He also hit seven doubles, two triples, scored 31 runs, drove in 10, stole 14, and had a partridge in a pear tree (scratch that last one). Yes, Pelzer doesn't hit home runs. He had zero in Northwest Arkansas, and it doesn't seem likely that he will ever hit double digits in a season at the Major League level. That's a knock against him. However, he does everything else right offensively. He's the kind of hitter that teams like Cleveland and Milwaukee produce. It would be nice if Pelzer could start a similar trend for the Royals. Kansas City could use a hitter like Pelzer in the bottom of the order, especially in the No. 8 or 9 spot. He is the kind of hitter who can extend innings and set things up for Carter Jensen and Bobby Witt Jr. at the top of the Royals lineup. It would not be surprising to see Pelzer get that opportunity in the second half of 2027 or by Opening Day in 2028. View the full article

In looking over the projected 2027 Twins roster, the clearest opportunity to upgrade the lineup is at first base, where Royce Lewis is coming off another sub-par season. Twins officials have signaled a willingness to invest. The problem is that this year's free agent class at the position is not particularly strong. There are only a few truly good hitters on the market and competition will be high for them, meaning trades could be the better avenue for landing an impact bat, especially with the Twins being open to dealing from their pitching depth. Here are five names that stand out as potentially available targets capable of meaningfully improving a position where the Twins ranked 26th out of 30 MLB teams in fWAR this season. Yandy Díaz, Tampa Bay Rays Coming off an All-Star campaign (his second), Díaz has one remaining year of team control at $13 million. That makes him a prototypical Rays trade candidate. He's an excellent all-around hitter with a 127 career OPS+ and his right-handed bat would be a nice fit in the heart of the Twins' order. It's reasonable to wonder if Díaz is a credible defensive first baseman at this point. All of the 35-year-old's starts this year came at DH, and 114 of his 150 appearances last year. The Twins had little tolerance for Josh Bell's glove at first and it's not clear Díaz would be any better. Alec Burleson, St. Louis Cardinals Biggest prize the Twins could hope to land. He led the majors with 116 RBIs as No. 3 hitter for the Cards. Burleson is two years from free agency and turning 29 next month. He has produced a 129 OPS+ over the last two seasons with a high-contact swing that produces a lot of power. He'd be the kind of slam-dunk acquisition this team needs to generate enthusiasm and back up big talk. The question is availability. St. Louis has no real impetus to shop him, especially since they already had one of the worst offenses in the league this year. Minnesota's front office would need to knock their socks off with an offer. Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds Reunion alert! Steer has been a pretty average hitter for the Reds since being sent over in the Tyler Mahle trade, but there's value in that — especially because he brings some defensive versatility that would be handy. For example, as a righty hitter he could pop out to left field and start against a southpaw. Steer's overall .242/.327/.421 slash line in 586 games is mediocre, but he has an .838 OPS against lefties and that's what makes him interesting for a Twins team trying to overcome a perpetual weakness. He's controlled through 2028 and reportedly received "plenty of interest" at the deadline. Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox High risk, high reward. Casas was a Rookie of the Year contender in 2023 and had a 126 OPS+ through 222 MLB games. He was slumping in 2025 before suffering a torn patellar tendon against the Twins in early May. He hasn't appeared in a game since, with his recovery complicated by soft tissue injuries and a wrist issue requiring arthroscopic surgery. Injuries have ravaged the 26-year-old and derailed a promising career. Maybe a change of scenery helps him get it back on track. Casas has two remaining years of control and will be cheap in terms of salary, making him an efficient payroll fit that maintains spending flexibility to upgrade elsewhere. Gambling on him to finally get healthy and return to form would be a bold course with a lot of downside. Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles More of a floor raiser than a ceiling raiser. Cost to acquire him would presumably be low because he's become highly redundant in Baltimore. Missed all but one game this year due to a fractured foot, and he was not a good hitter in 2025. Prior to that, however, he was a reliable 110-ish OPS+ right-handed power bat. Based on recent history, it's not clear he's a superior option to Lewis, so this isn't the most exciting proposition, but there's little question that Mountcastle is attainable he's still only 29. None of these options is perfect, in terms of both clear availability and fit. But if the Twins are serious about bolstering an offense that will need to replace the lost impact of Bell and Ryan Jeffers, first base offers an opportunity to be aggressive. They have pitching depth to deal from and an obvious need to address. Whether it's a blockbuster for Burleson, a calculated gamble on Casas or something in between, this feels like an area where the Twins should be actively exploring every avenue this winter. View the full article

The first two games of the Milwaukee Brewers’ playoff journey have been must-see television, but the job isn’t done. After a raise-the-roof 3-2 victory in Game 1 and a Jackson Chourio walk-off single for a 4-3 triumph in Game 2, the Crew needs one more win to advance to the League Championship Series for the fourth time since they switched to the National League. Here's what Pat Murphy’s squad must accomplish to get there. Keep Stealing Bases to Put Pressure on the Defense The Brewers have won the NL Central four seasons in a row, stamping their ticket to the postseason and earning some playoff home games to go with it. How did they get there without an offense known for its power? Partially, it was by being aggressive on the base paths. While the strong crowds at American Family Field certainly helped with putting pressure on a streaking San Diego Padres team, stealing an extra 90 feet has been their brand for the last few seasons. The Brewers stole 162 bases in the regular season this year, good enough for fifth in baseball. The Padres stole 164, slotting in slightly ahead of the Crew. So far in this series, though, the Crew is 3-for-3 in that department (one each from Bryce Turang, Garrett Mitchell and Christian Yelich). Yelich’s stolen base came on a 1-0 count against a Mason Miller fastball, a scenario wherein most baserunners wouldn’t try their luck. He forced the issue, anyway. San Diego, on the other hand, is 0-for-1, after Dustin Harris was caught stealing in the fifth inning of Game 2. The Padres already have their backs against the wall. They're playing to extend their season for the rest of this series. The Brewers can make their lives that much harder by staying aggressive. Dustin May Needs to Provide Some Length Both bullpens have recorded exactly 27 outs, though it hasn't quite felt like they've absorbed equally heavy loads. Jacob Misiorowski went just four innings in the series opener (Antonio Senzatela, Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe, DL Hall and Trevor Megill followed), and Logan Henderson provided five innings on Sunday night (JoJo Romero, Uribe, Ashby and Megill followed). While the team gets an off day, that’s still three high-leverage arms (Ashby, Uribe and Megill) who have gone in back-to-back contests. In his last eight starts of the regular season, Brewers starter Dustin May went five or more innings just once. There’s a scenario where the Padres take Game 3 at home and extend this series. If that were to happen, the war of attrition really kicks in for these relievers. May going four innings (if not five) will be critical for the Brewers’ success, because it will give them a chance to turn to Robert Gasser or Kyle Harrison for some length, too, and not to need all of the traditional high-leverage options. Keep the Clutch Hitting Rolling The Brewers are only 4-for-16 with runners in scoring position over the first two games, with their fourth base knock being Chourio’s two-run single to send the 41,683 fans in attendance into a roaring frenzy. But the hits and at-bats don't document the walks that set the stage for Chourio's heroics. Nor is hitting with runners in scoring position the only way to be clutch William Contreras’s solo home run in Game 1 was a clutch hit. Milwaukee’s backstop stepped up in a 2-2 ball game and provided the go-ahead run. The Padres are just 3-for-18 with runners in scoring position. It’s a thin margin, but that’s been the difference between a 1-1 split and the 2-0 advantage the Crew has as they make the trek out west. Game 3 of the NLDS is on Tuesday at 8:30 PM CT. If Milwaukee can steal bases, get significant innings out of May and continue to come through in the clutch, they’ll be dancing to the NLCS yet again. View the full article

With the end of the MiLB season comes time for recognition of players who stood out throughout the season. While most of the Cubs' prospect success came on the offensive side this year, there were still some standout pitchers who had excellent seasons and built up some confidence headed into the 2027 season. Let's dive into those and crown our 2026 Cubs Minor League Pitchers of the Year. 3. Brooks Caple - 21 G, 21 GS, 107.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 31 BB, 108 K Caple made his way into the Cubs top 10 prospect rankings midway through the season, and it was well-deserved. He pitched across two levels this season, posting a 7-5 record with a 3.09 ERA and 108 strikeouts in 21 starts and 107 2/3 innings pitched. Caple's most impressive trait may have been his command of the strike zone, as he went from 43 walks in 98 1/3 innings in 2025 to the numbers you see above. He features a fastball that sat in the mid-90s, along with a breaking ball mix that includes a curveball and slider. Most of Caple's time was spent at Double-A Knoxville, where he pitched 86 frames. His work at Double-A earned him Double-A League All-Star Honors, alongside Owen Ayers and Dawson Netz. Caple certainly made a name for himself. He'll be among those who are heavily watched and highlighted in spring training and throughout the course of the 2027 season—especially if, as might be the case, he starts knocking loudly on the door to the majors next spring. 2. Tyler Ras - 41 G, 67.2 IP, 8 SV, 2.13 ERA, 21 BB, 71 K, 0.99 WHIP, .194 OPP AVG Ras hasn't yet cracked Chicago's top 30 prospect list, but that could change if he continues to dominate out of the bullpen the way he did in 2026. He was a handful to deal with throughout the season, and he made life tough on Double-A hitters. All 41 of his appearances were out of the bullpen; that's his only viable role. An upper-90s fastball (along with a cutter, curveball, slider and changeup) gives Ras an excellent five-pitch mix with which to work, though. He converted all eight of his save opportunities and added two holds. It was an excellent season for Ras, who has quickly emerged as one of the top reliever prospect in the organization. 1. Dawson Netz - 24 G, 17 GS, 85.2 IP, 2.94 ERA, 35 BB, 103 K, .170 OPP AVG Like Ras, Netz has not yet entered the Cubs' top 30 prospect rankings, but he is well deserving of it, after a stellar season. Netz's 103 strikeouts led the Knoxville Smokies and were the eighth-most in the Southern League, which earned him Double-A League All-Star honors. It was an increase of 37 strikeouts from his 2025 total, in just 22 more innings. Netz features a unique delivery that gave him a bit of deception, something that could've helped raise the strikeout numbers. He did struggle with walks, but when you allow opponents to hit just .170 for the entire season, those walks will often be stranded. With a bit better command of the zone next season, Netz could be right on the cusp of a potential promotion to the major leagues. In a strong system, there would be better news than this. Even in a bad year for pitching in an organization aware of the shortcoming, though, there were some green shoots. Keep an eye out for Caple, Ras and Netz. They might have big-league futures. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins have spent the last few years making payroll decisions that require a calculator, a spreadsheet, and (probably) a small support group. The next one is right around the corner, as Joe Ryan presents an interesting problem for Jeremy Zoll and the front office this winter. MLB Trade Rumors projects Ryan to earn approximately $9.6 million through arbitration for the 2027 season. That's a significant raise from the $6.2 million he earned in 2025, but in the current starting pitching market, it might also qualify as something Twins fans haven't seen enough of lately: a bargain. The question is whether that bargain makes Ryan more valuable to the Twins or more attractive to other teams. It should do both, of course, but will it do one more than the other? And if so, what action will that prompt from the team? Ryan Might Be One of the Best Starters on the Market The 2026-27 free-agent starting pitching class isn't exactly overflowing with top-of-the-rotation options. The current top five starting pitchers on the market are probably: LHP Tarik Skubal LHP Trevor Rogers RHP Freddy Peralta RHP Michael King RHP Kevin Gausman Ryan isn't part of that free-agent group, because he's under team control through arbitration. But if he were available alongside those pitchers, there's a reasonable argument that he'd rank second on the entire market. At worst, he would be difficult to place lower than fifth. That's important, because the pitchers ahead of him are going to cost significantly more than $10 million. Skubal will land a massive multi-year contract; it could be more than $400 million. Peralta, King, Rogers and Gausman will have plenty of teams interested in their services, and although only Rogers is likely to sniff a nine-figure deal, any of the four might earn $20 million per year or more. Ryan doesn't come with such a burdensome price tag. A team could acquire him and pay roughly $10 million for one season, without committing to four, five or six years on a free-agent contract. If a trade suitor believes Ryan is one of the best starting pitchers available this winter, paying him $9.6 million for 2027 could look remarkably inexpensive. One way or another, Zoll's phone will buzz. The Twins Would Be Selling a Valuable Asset This is where the Ryan conversation becomes complicated. The Twins don't need to trade Ryan. They might actually have a very good reason to keep him. Minnesota's rotation faces plenty of questions heading into 2027. There are young arms who could emerge, but there are also durability questions, guys who are more project than prospect, and plenty of uncertainty. Ryan is the known commodity. He's been one of the organization's most reliable starters, and his ability to miss bats isn't easily replaced internally. FanGraphs pegs his value at more than $17 million in every big-league season since his rookie year, and his strikeout skills are a huge part of that. The Twins can't simply trade Ryan because another team is willing to offer a couple of prospects. He's a linchpin of their rotation. Unless they see trouble under the hood, they should only deal him if they get back a package that bolsters them in the present, as well as the future. As argued previously, that kind of value might just not be there. His second-half performances have been a problem, which is a reason for the Twins to consider moving him but also a drag on the value teams might give up to get him. Again, though, the money matters—and it works in the team's favor, either way. The $9.6 Million Question Imagine you're a team that needs starting pitching. You can sign one of the top free agents and give that pitcher a multi-year contract worth anywhere from $19 million to $35 million per season. Then, you have to keep your fingers crossed that he stays healthy and performs at a high level for the life of the contract. Alternatively, you can trade prospects for Ryan and pay him less than $10 million for 2027. The latter option suddenly looks pretty appealing. Ryan's projected arbitration salary doesn't make him cheap in a vacuum. But baseball contracts don't exist in a vacuum. They exist in comparison to the alternatives, and the alternatives are expensive. Ryan's second halves are worrisome, but many of the other top starters available come with some yellow flags of their own. Most teams would rather have a guy who wears down every summer and battles nagging leg issues than one who's already wearing two elbow scars or has shoulder soreness all over his medical history. So, Should the Twins Trade Him? This is where things get uncomfortable. If the Twins are serious about competing in 2027, keeping Ryan makes a lot of sense. If they're more interested in continuing to reshape the roster around a younger core, Ryan might be one of the best players to cash in. The projected $9.6 million salary makes that decision harder, not easier. If Ryan were projected to make $20 million, teams might be less aggressive in trade talks. If the free-agent market were loaded with comparable starters, his trade value might also be lower. Instead, Minnesota has a starting pitcher who could arguably rank near the top of the free-agent class and cost less than half what some comparable hurlers will. That's a pretty attractive asset. The Twins have to determine whether that asset is more valuable on the mound or as a piece to acquire others—which comes down to what those other pieces turn out to be. Does Ryan’s projected arbitration salary make him a more attractive trade candidate? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

After being away from the team for the first two games of the NL Division Series, the San Diego Padres have one of their veteran pitchers back. Right-hander Walker Buehler was activated by the Padres from the paternity list Monday, with another right-hander, Randy Vasquez, being taken off the roster. Buehler and his wife, McKenzie, were expecting the birth of their second child Saturday, the same day of Game 1 of the best-of-five series against the Milwaukee Brewers. Buehler had been in consideration to start Game 1, but that assignment went to left-hander Robbie Ray, perhaps because Buehler was going to be with his wife. Right-hander Nick Pivetta is scheduled to start Game 3 on Wednesday, with Buehler a possibility for Game 4. Vasquez did not pitch in either of the first two games of the Division Series. He was left off the roster for the NL Wild Card Series after pitching six innings in the regular-season finale, leaving him unlikely to pitch in the best-of-three series that the Padres swept from the Chicago Cubs. The Padres return home to Petco Park for Game 3 of the Division Series facing a 2-0 deficit against the Brewers. The Padres won both of the Wild Card Series games at Petco Park after a 26-6 finish at home to conclude the regular season. View the full article

Maddie and Alex sit down and recap the Red Sox’s somber postseason exit. As always, they answer your Talk Sox forum questions, pinpointing what went wrong in the AL Wild Card series from Chad Tracy’s bizarre pitching management to Roman Anthony’s mismanaged wrist/hand. They lament the weak ’26-27 free-agent class and tease some creative offseason trades. Finally, they end the episode on a positive note by dissing Liberty Biberty. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-talk-sox-podcast/id1783204104 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3qPrPXEngu0CxgTmlf0ynm Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-talk-sox-podcast-244591331/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/4tmd121v Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@talksox View the full article

The 2026 season did not end where the Minnesota Twins wanted it to, but the organization still has five players receiving recognition from Major League Baseball as All-MLB Team nominees. Kody Clemens, Brooks Lee, Ryan Jeffers, Byron Buxton, and Taj Bradley are all on the ballot. Fans can vote once per day at MLB.com through Friday, October 9, giving Twins fans an opportunity to make their voices heard and reward several players who made significant contributions during the season. Clemens was one of the year's biggest surprises. He appeared in 145 games and provided a power boost that few could have predicted, launching 27 home runs and driving in 81 runs. His ability to move around the diamond also made him a valuable piece of the roster. Lee supplied plenty of power of his own. The young infielder hit 24 home runs with 83 RBI while batting .253 over 156 games. He spent 110 games at third base, continuing to establish himself as an important part of Minnesota's future. Bradley arguably has the strongest case among the five nominees. Acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays at the 2025 trade deadline, he took another step forward in his first full season with Minnesota. Bradley went 12-6 with a 3.73 ERA and 205 strikeouts across 178 1/3 innings in 31 starts. He also established personal bests in several categories while becoming a dependable piece of the Twins' rotation. Jeffers and Buxton were two of Minnesota's most valuable players when healthy. Jeffers hit .256 with a .353 on-base percentage, 14 home runs and 56 RBI in just 92 games. His season was interrupted by a broken left hamate bone that kept him on the injured list from May 19 until July 10, making his production even more impressive. Buxton hit 25 home runs and posted an .830 OPS in 93 games. Unfortunately, his season ended prematurely because of a right hip impingement, and he has not played since late August. How the Voting Works The All-MLB Team includes a first team and second team, with each featuring a catcher, every infield position, three outfielders, a designated hitter, five starting pitchers and two relief pitchers. Selections are made without regard to league. Fans and a panel consisting of media members, broadcasters, former players and other officials each have an equal say in the final results. The winners will be announced November 11 at the MLB Awards in Las Vegas. View the full article

In case you hadn’t heard, the Twins’ bullpen was somewhat of a talking point this season. After the complete fire sale at the 2025 trade deadline, when the Twins shipped out a handful of bullpen arms including (but not limited to) Jhoan Duran, Louis Varland and Griffin Jax, there wasn’t much done to replace that talent last offseason. That approach clearly didn’t work. The Twins tried to piece together a bullpen on the fly this season, and while there were some success stories along the way, the group was far too inconsistent for a team that wanted to compete. Now, the Twins have another opportunity to address the problem. And this winter can, and should, be different. When Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll was asked about building the bullpen this offseason, he pointed toward the importance of involving the organization’s coaching staff in the acquisition process. “When an organization is operating healthily, your major-league staff is able to weigh in on acquisitions and profile strengths and weaknesses,” Zoll said. That’s an interesting wrinkle considering the Twins will have a new pitching coach and assistant pitching coach next season, with Pete Maki and Luis Ramirez both departing. Zoll also said he expects the new pitching coach group to be “integrated into the acquisitions process,” including when the Twins are looking at free agents and waiver claims. That makes sense. If the organization believes its coaches can identify certain traits or help unlock something in a pitcher, it makes sense to bring them into the process before the player is acquired rather than after. But Zoll’s comments don’t exactly scream that a major bullpen investment is coming, either. When discussing how the Twins will build the unit, Zoll said, “I think you have to be open to all different avenues to accomplish that.” He pointed to the number of success stories the Twins had while trying to build the bullpen on the fly, but acknowledged that “at the end of the day, the best moments were too short and there were too many times of inconsistency from that group.” That’s probably the most important part of the quote. Zoll openly acknowledged that the Twins “fell short” in trying to build the bullpen this way. But there was no indication that the solution is necessarily going to involve spending big money on an established late-inning arm. Indeed, their track record suggests the opposite. The biggest free agent reliever signing the Twins made last year was brining back Taylor Rogers for $2M - and their need last year was at least as big as it will be next year. Plus, there are certainly reasons to believe the Twins can improve without spending big money. Yoendrys Gómez was purchased from the Rays midseason and emerged as a legitimate late-inning option. Andrew Morris, a nominal starting pitcher prospect in 2025, moved to the bullpen and was dominant for most of the year. Left-handed relief prospect Kody Funderburk put together a strong second half after struggling earlier in the year. Those are meaningful developments, and Zoll is right to point toward them as foundational pieces. But they don’t change the fact that this unit needs more help. The question then becomes: how much are the Twins actually willing to invest in fixing it? On one hand, there’s a pretty compelling argument that they should spend fairly aggressively on the bullpen this offseason. With a salary floor very likely to be implemented, the Twins have a significant amount of ground to make up. The initial MLB proposal called for a $171.2 million floor, while Minnesota’s payroll this season was roughly $115 million. That means the Twins would have to spend money somewhere. Why not use some of that money to fix one of the biggest weaknesses on the roster? There should be quality arms available, too. Adrian Morejon and David Bednar are among the relievers currently lined up to reach free agency, while Andrés Muñoz could hit the market if his club option is declined. Aroldis Chapman has a mutual option, and Ryan Helsley has an opt-out that could put him back on the market as well. That doesn’t mean the Twins need to sign one of those specific players. There are plenty of different ways to improve a bullpen. But if they’re serious about becoming a legitimate contender again, this seems like a pretty obvious place to allocate some resources. The Twins already made one significant commitment to the bullpen at the trade deadline by acquiring Jeff Hoffman from Toronto. Hoffman is set to make $11 million next season, although the Blue Jays are covering $3.75 million of that, leaving Minnesota responsible for $7.25 million. And honestly, that should make adding another established late-inning arm even more reasonable. Hoffman can help stabilize the back end of the bullpen, while Gómez gives the Twins another intriguing option. But after watching so many late-inning leads disappear this season, I don’t think the answer should be hoping those two are enough. If Tom Pohlad is serious about turning this team into a championship-caliber club, as he has said he is, there’s no reason for the Twins to limit themselves to bargain-bin additions and internal improvements. Minnesota has already seen what happens when they try to build an entire bullpen on the fly. There were flashes of success, but there was also too much inconsistency, especially when the team needed outs most. They don’t need to abandon the development model that has produced plenty of successful relievers. They just need to supplement it. The Twins have an opportunity this offseason to rewrite the script. They have internal options, and they should have room to add payroll. The biggest question is whether they’ll actually use that flexibility. If the goal is to build a team capable of competing for a championship, the bullpen needs to be more than a collection of intriguing possibilities. It needs to be a strength. And that should start with the Twins thinking bigger this time around. View the full article

By the standards of their proudly second-tier billionaire owners, the Cubs spent lavishly in 2026. They not only splurged over the winter on Alex Bregman and a bevy of smaller signings, but took on over $15 million during the season in trades to bolster their roster. According to Cot's Contracts, their final estimated payroll for competitive-balance tax (CBT) purposes was $268 million, nearly $30 million more than they've ever spent before. In raw dollars, they spent just under $250 million, but that's still far more than they've spent before. Inflation in the market demands that a big-market team keep its payroll rising this way, but the Cubs haven't always done so; it's worth noting their commitment to this year's team. Unfortunately, commitment in one season doesn't earn you extra credit the following year. The Cubs can't get cheaper in 2027 and hope to replicate their 89-win campaign this year. In fact, they can't even maintain this new franchise high in spending and hold out a reasonable hope in that vein. No, the magic number for next year's team is one that might turn Tom Ricketts's hair white: $300 million. The team doesn't need to actually spend $300 million on the roster next year—which is a good thing, because there's absolutely no chance that Ricketts will do so. Again, this year, they spent around $248 million on the 40-man roster. The difference between that figure and the $268 million for CBT purposes is a flat rate paid by all teams to fund player pensions and benefits, plus the difference between what players actually received and the annual average value (AAV) of their contracts, after considering deferrals and other financial quirks. It's that CBT number that will have to exceed $300 million if the Cubs hope to contend next year—but that probably means driving actual spending past $265 million. Let's talk about why, and why the Rickettses should be willing to do it. Firstly, four of the Cubs' most important players will be significantly more expensive next season. Pete Crow-Armstrong's six-year, $115-million contract kicks in in 2027. It only pays him $10 million—a bargain, for a player who will be the reigning NL MVP when he takes the field on Opening Day. That's already a big bump from this year, though. His base salary for 2026 was under $1 million. He got a $5-million signing bonus as part of his new deal, and he'll get such a huge windfall from the league's pre-arbitration bonus pool that he'll end up earning eight figures for on-field work this year, but the Cubs will have paid only a small fraction of that in salary. Next year, he not only actually costs $10 million, but will carry a CBT tax hit of just over $19 million. Nico Hoerner's new deal begins, too, and bumps him from a real salary of $14.5 million (counting a signing bonus payment he received in June) to $25.5 million. His CBT hit rises from about $11.7 million to about $22.8 million. Alex Bregman's CBT number is unchanged, but his deal deferred $10 million of his annual $35-million salary in 2026; it only defers $5 million in 2027. Finally, Michael Busch is arbitration-elgible for the first time this fall, and MLB Trade Rumors projects him for a whopping $5.4-million payday. On those four guys, alone, the Cubs are in line to owe about $25 million more than they paid in 2026, and their CBT number will rise by more like $33 million. Without making any upgrades or replacing anyone heading out the door, and without accounting for several smaller pay bumps, they're going to see that much of an increase in costs. Let's pause a moment. You might be thinking that this exercise is a waste, because the collective bargaining agreement (CBA) expires on December 1, and the sport is expected to enter a prolonged offseason work stoppage. The owners are expected to push for a salary cap that could radically reshape the rule set of the sport and the financial balance between teams. Admittedly, the lockout is a virtual certainty, and a cap is at least a possibility. However, I'm on record with this already, and I'll renew my asseverations here: There will be a 162-game MLB season in 2027. There won't be a salary cap. Not that much will change, really, except that significant time will be wasted as the sides bicker. That could turn out to be wrong, but based on conversations with people within the game; others within broader labor circles; and some sources with key corporate partners of the league, I continue to think the risk of lost games and the likelihood of a meaningful change from the present system are both being overblown. There'll be a lockout; it'll be annoying. But it's unlikely to produce any change that truly shapes how rosters are built, and we should assume that the basic guidelines of the last half-decade will apply to the next one. Ok, enough about that. Assuming a quasi-stasis in the rules, we can get back to figuring out how (and how much) the Cubs need to spend money this winter to get better. Bregman, Hoerner, Busch and Crow-Armstrong are probably not going anywhere, and they're probably going to be quite good in 2027, as a group. They'll be more expensive, though, which poses a problem, because the team has to replace three outgoing position players, too. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki got all the headlines down the stretch; their free agencies have loomed as storylines for over a year. Each made $19 million in 2026, and their CBT numbers were right in that range. That means the team should be able to comfortably spend $38 million to replace them, but (beyond those two players themselves, and Mariners star Randy Arozarena) the outfield market is frightfully thin this winter—and, of course, they don't really have $38 million to spend, unless they're willing to increase their payroll. Some of what went to Happ and Suzuki in 2026 is earmarked for the quartet we just talked about in 2027. He got far less attention, but Carson Kelly is also an impending free agent—and that's a significant issue for the Cubs. The two-year deal Kelly signed with Chicago before the 2025 season only earned him $5.5 million per annum, even after he met both tiers of his playing-time bonus clauses in both campaigns. The contract includes a $7.5-million mutual option, but really, that's only worth $6 million, since Kelly gets a $1.5-million buyout when he turns down his side of it. That's precisely what he'll do, and when he does, he'll become the second- or third-best catcher on this winter's (again, thin) market. Even if the Cubs bring him back, they should expect to pay at least as much as they did the last two years, and they'd be paying it to a 32-year-old at a position where almost everyone ages poorly. Miguel Amaya, not much younger than Kelly but with much less service time, is only projected to earn $1.7 million via arbitration—but that's more than double what he made in 2026. To avoid getting worse behind the plate in 2027 (which they can ill afford to do), the Cubs will have to spend more money on that spot, too. Then, there's the pitching staff. Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Kevin Gausman and David Peterson are all free agents-to-be, no questions asked or strings attached. The Cubs could tender Boyd a qualifying offer, and if anything, there's a stronger argument for doing so with him than there was for offering Imanaga the same tender last fall. Bring him back on a one-year deal worth roughly $23.1 million, though, and you've just raised Boyd's actual salary by over $6 million and his CBT number by $8.6 million, relative to 2026. Given his age, there's very little chance Boyd is better next year, so the Cubs would be paying that premium just to feel reasonably good about holding their ground. Barring giving Boyd a QO, the team will watch a huge amount of pitching salary slough off in early November. Boyd made $17 million, with a $14.5-million CBT hit. Imanaga got $22.025 million on last year's QO. Gausman and Peterson essentially replaced Jameson Taillon; you can think about Taillon's $18 million as rolling off the books. Clay Holmes will turn down his player option, so a guy on whom the team spent about $4 million is also leaving. Hunter Harvey is unlikely to return. The Cubs will decline their side of a mutual option with Caleb Thielbar. They're freeing up something like $70 million in pitchers who won't be back. This time, there's no immediate salary bubble rising to take away their spending room. Justin Steele and Edward Cabrera are expected to get only very small raises next year. Deadline acquisition Braxton Garrett will get less than $2 million via arbitration. Ryan Zeferjahn isn't even arbitration-eligible yet. Daniel Palencia and Ben Brown are, but their injuries and inconsistency mean neither is expected to crack $2 million in 2027 earnings, either. Ryan Rolison and Javier Assad remain affordable. Cade Horton is pre-arbitration. The problem is that, of all those guys, the only remotely trustworthy arms for next year are Palencia, Zeferjahn, Rolison and Assad, and even they come with question marks. Cabrera, Steele, Horton and Brown carry major upside. They're capable of much better 2027 campaigns, mostly by simply getting and staying healthy. Then again, there are real reasons for deep concern about each, and there's almost no chance of any of them giving you (say) 160 strong innings. At the very least, you have to build a pitching staff with the idea that they're good for fewer than 400 good innings as a group. The challenge the Cubs face is building almost a whole playoff-caliber pitching staff, from scratch, because they had one of the worst staffs in baseball this year and are likely to see their best pitchers either leave or spend much of next year on the injured list. It's hard to overstate how expensive the endeavor they face is. Though it's miles outside Jed Hoyer's comfort zone (let alone Ricketts's), they need to seriously consider signing Tarik Skubal to a megadeal—but that wouldn't solve their problems. What they really need is an offseason akin to the one they had under Theo Epstein and Hoyer in 2014-15, when they both signed Jon Lester and brought back Jason Hammel—only they need to go even further. Skubal, Trevor Rogers, Sonny Gray, Michael King, Tyler Mahle and Freddy Peralta headline a reasonably deep corps of free-agent starters. David Bednar and Adrian Morejon are the headliners on the relief market. The Cubs really need to consider signing three of those players, even if they retain one of Boyd, Holmes or Peterson through some type of re-up. That would be phenomenally expensive, though. Unlike in the 2014-15 offseason (or in 2015-16, when they signed Jason Heyward but also bolstered their rotation with John Lackey), they don't have a terrific young, inexpensive core to facilitate that kind of maneuver. They'd simply have to crash through the doors and into the high-roller room where the Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies and Mets play. Failing a massive winter spending spree (in a winter wherein that might be difficult), Chicago will have to get creative, in a way that seems beyond Hoyer's ability. They'd need to seriously consider trading Busch and signing a more reliable bat for first base, while scooping up some young pitching. They'd need to consider selling high on hype machine Josiah Hartshorn (a good idea, but probably a non-starter) to land a premium trade target. They'd need to make a whole lot out of a farm system that comes to not-very-much. No, the Cubs have to go spend $300 million (at least in CBT terms) to win in 2027. That feels unlikely, but if they don't do it, a deep run next October feels even more far-fetched. View the full article

The Milwaukee Brewers were the best team in Major League Baseball this season, winning a franchise-record 103 games and clinching their fourth straight National League Central title. Finishing with the best record in the league earned them a date with the winner of the Wild Card Series between the top two Wild Card entrants, which netted them this date with the San Diego Padres. The Brewers struggled with the Padres during the regular season, dropping four of the six games between the two teams. Some of those losses were due to bullpen struggles that were uncharacteristic, for a Milwaukee squad rich in relief options. Let's dive a bit more into that, because the pen walked a high wire in Games 1 and 2 and will be tested even more sternly in Games 3 and 4. Abner Uribe Uribe was one of the top relievers in baseball this season, posting a 1.97 ERA with 62 strikeouts and an opponent average of .199 across 61 outings and 59 1/3 innings pitched. It was the second consecutive season in which Uribe posted a sub-2.00 ERA, making him one of the most feared arms in the league. He did not, though, strike fear into Padres hitters. Uribe made two appearances against San Diego in the regular season, posting a 13.50 ERA with two walks and two strikeouts across two innings pitched. Both of those outings came in early May. He was solid in one, but gave up a go-ahead three-run home run in the other. Uribe did have a walk in both outings, something he allowed just 19 of during the regular season. Those struggles carried right over into his appearances in Games 1 and 2, too. He hit a batter, walked another and allowed three hits, all of them well-struck. He could have had better defensive support, and a couple of tough calls went against him, but San Diego batters seem to have the measure of Uribe. Ideally, he'll be less vital in whatever's left of this series, or at least pitch against a different pocket of the Padres lineup. The top four batters in their usual order have each seen him twice already. Name Patrick Ashby Hall Senzatela Megill Uribe Romero Drohan May Gasser Misiorowski Harrison Henderson Tatis X XX XX XX XXX Harris X XX XX XX XXX Taylor X Machado X X XX XX XXX France X X XX XX XXX Merrill XX X X X XX XX Andujar X Bowen Salas X XX Campusano X X X XX XX Fermin X Bogaerts XX X X XX XX Sheets XX Cronenworth X X X XX XX Hays X X Trevor Megill Megill turned in another outstanding season in 2026, posting a 2.63 ERA and 0.89 WHIP while striking out 69 batters across 63 appearances and 61 2/3 innings. His 30 saves were tied for 10th-most in MLB; it was his second consecutive season collecting 30 saves. Megill didn't struggle against San Diego to the extent that Uribe did, but he did have a bit of a bumpy outing during the regular season that gives us some insight into his close call Saturday night. Megill appeared twice against the Padres this season, posting a 3.38 ERA with three strikeouts and one walk across 2 2/3 innings pitched. San Diego got him for a run on two hits in an outing on May 12. That came before Megill was the unquestioned closer; he was setting up Uribe that day. A Fernando Tatis Jr. single and a Miguel Andujar double were the keys to the miniature San Diego rally; Megill actually struck out all three batters he got out that day, including Ty France. He was dominant when he saw them again in August, getting five outs to keep the winning run from scoring in both the ninth and 10th innings. In the middle of that appearance, though, he issued a telling intentional walk to Tatis. In Sunday's Game 2, Megill pitched the top of the ninth and kept the Brewers' deficit to one run, but Tatis hit a ball all the way to the left field wall, where Jackson Chourio hauled it down. The stuff and swing paths match up favorably for Megill against most of the Padres order, but Tatis and France pose significant danger for him. We saw that in the regular season, and again over the weekend. While the Brewers have escaped damage late in each of the two games so far, their bullpen hasn't exactly figured out the top half of the San Diego lineup. The third member of the Milwaukee three-headed monster, Aaron Ashby, did allow a .286 average to Padres' hitters in two outings, but he escaped without giving up any runs. He looked best of the set in the first phase of the NLDS, too, though he had the advantage of working against the bottom half of the batting order and seeing some left-handed batters. This series could still come down to whether Milwaukee relievers can get out Padres batters in a close, late-game situation. We've seen multiple pieces of evidence that Uribe and Megill are vulnerable to those hitters, and now, each has pitched against them very recently. Ashby might be the X-factor. Though he's a lefty (and, thus, is in some real danger when facing the likes of Tatis, Manny Machado and France), he could be the difference-maker during the remainder of this series, as the Brewers try to close it out and advance to the NLCS for the second year in a row. View the full article

Michael Busch looked like a potential star after his breakout 2025 season, but his production took a significant step backward this year. Now, the Cubs have to figure out whether 2026 was simply a down year or a sign that we’ve already seen his peak. View the full article

Taylor Rogers has already experienced just about everything a reliever can encounter during an 11-year major league career. He has been an All-Star, changed teams multiple times, and, most recently, returned to Minnesota as a veteran presence in a young bullpen. Apparently, he isn't ready to call it quits. Rogers plans to continue pitching in 2027, which would be his age-36 season. According to the Minnesota Star Tribune's Bobby Nightengale, Rogers would prefer to remain with the Twins if the opportunity is there. His other preferred destination would be Toronto, where he could reunite with his twin brother, Tyler, in the Blue Jays' bullpen. That gives Minnesota something worth considering this offseason. Rogers signed a one-year, $2 million contract with the Twins last winter after spending four seasons bouncing between five different organizations. His return didn't produce the dominant results he had during his first stint in Minnesota, but he remained a useful piece for a club that desperately needed veteran stability in its bullpen. The results were fairly ordinary. Rogers posted a 4.33 ERA across 60 1/3 innings while striking out just 19.6% of opposing hitters and walking 11.2%. Both his strikeout rate and 34.6% ground-ball rate were career lows. There were some encouraging numbers hidden underneath those results, though. Rogers allowed hard contact at an exceptionally low rate. His 28% hard-hit rate was the best mark of his career and ranked in the 98th percentile among MLB pitchers. He also surrendered only five home runs, producing the lowest home-run rate of his career. He was better suited for lower-leverage work rather than the late-inning role he once occupied. That doesn't necessarily make him expendable. Rogers also became one of the veteran voices in Minnesota's bullpen. LaTroy Hawkins specifically praised his mentorship of younger pitchers, and Rogers even helped Hawkins during the former All-Star's first season as a major league coach. There is also a familiarity factor. Rogers knows the organization, has a relationship with manager Derek Shelton and clearly remains comfortable in Minnesota. If the Twins can bring him back for something close to his previous $2 million salary, it could work for both the team and the player. Rogers may not be the dominant closer he once was, but experienced left-handed depth, clubhouse leadership and a low-cost contract could all be useful for a bullpen that needs reinforcements. Sometimes the easiest offseason decision is simply keeping someone who already knows where everything is. View the full article

Jake McKibbin and Jason Wang talk about the first two games of a riveting NLDS matchup between the Brew Crew and the Friar Faithful. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-brewer-fanatic-podcast/id1740648724 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5CY8mWsQayqjDXqw9OT2Td iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-brewer-fanatic-podcast-166534588/ Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ommzz627 Watch On YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@brewerfanatic View the full article

If you're going to lose a playoff game, you'd just as soon it be a blowout. There's a bit less of a mental hurdle to clear after that kind of (no-)contest; players and coaches are used to flushing crummy games and moving on. Besides, when you get your doors blown off, you always learn something valuable (who you can and can't trust with the ball the next time their spot in the rotation swings around; what defensive weakness you can no longer afford to accept in the name of finding more offense; who's so hot on the other side that you should gameplan around not letting them beat you)—and you hardly ever have to use your top relievers. That one is especially key. If you're going to lose a close playoff game, you want it to be one where you were chasing the game the whole time. Again, good odds say you didn't use your very best relievers to get to that point, but even if you did, you probably didn't push them especially hard. Meanwhile, the other side probably used everyone, if you kept the pressure on properly. You probably weakened them. You probably drew blood, even though you weren't able to complete the kill. Ok. That's a shame, but unless that game sent you home, there's a tomorrow to which to look forward. There's a new hunt on which to embark, and you feel like you'll bag your quarry this time. If you're going to lose a close playoff game wherein you had the lead most of the way, you want it to be one where your starter went deep and you got beat by a lightning strike—a fast sequence that flipped the scoreboard but didn't wear down your relief ace(s), or give the other side many looks at them. The more arrows you fire when you sense the opportunity, the fewer you'll have left if your belly is still empty the next day. The Padres head back to San Diego at DEFCON 1, because they just lost two games in a row in the very worst way possible: after holding the lead, and using their 'A' bullpen (not that they have a 'B' bullpen right now, anyway), and letting their opponents see everything those guys will try to do. It's as dire a situation as a team can encounter, except in that the series now shifts to Petco Park, where the fans will be ready to try to keep the team's season alive by being rowdier than ever. Unfortunately, it might not matter. Despite two low-scoring games in a row, it suddenly feels like the Padres don't have the pitching to go any further this fall. To the surprise of some, the team elected to roster only 11 pitchers for this series. Even in placing Walker Buehler on the postseason version of the paternity list, they designated Randy Vásquez as the player replacing him, so when Buehler is (presumably) reinstated Tuesday, they'll stay at 11 hurlers and 15 position players. In a best-of-5 series with two off days, that should be enough arms, but the unusual roster construction caught the attention of many fans and pundits. Was it a bold, innovative strategy? Not really. It was just an admission: the Padres don't have 12 pitchers they'd have any idea how to use. In his first season as a big-league manager, Craig Stammen was an activist. Down the stretch, he had a fairly stable starting rotation, but he only ever trusted Michael King and Nick Pivetta. In starts made by Buehler, Vásquez, Robbie Ray, Casey Mize, Griffin Canning, Germán Márquez, JP Sears and others, he was downright antsy—and with good reason. Of that group, only Ray ever gave him anything to trust. Even fellow trade acquisition Mize became (literally) wobbly after the ankle sprain he suffered in August, which he ill-advisedly tried to pitch through for five more weeks. Stammen also didn't show a great deal of imagination, though, or a deft touch when it came to playing matchups. He had a push-button bullpen at his disposal, and he mostly pushed the right buttons, but when it wasn't clear what he should do, it seemed like he rarely did the right thing. The front office's uneasiness with Stammen's bullpen management (however unspoken) became one factor in shaping the team's roster for this series. The lack of really good options available to them became another. Of the pitchers left off the NLDS roster, the only one who had a (superficially) strong case to be there is Wandy Peralta. The lefty pitched 65 times this year for Stammen, compiling 77 1/3 innings. His appearances were spangled across games like stars across the sky: Eight appearances in the fourth inning or earlier, including five "starts" as an opener Eight more appearances in the fifth 12 in the sixth 14 in the seventh 17 in the eighth 6 in the ninth His ERA (3.61) suggests he performed that versatile duty well. But Peralta lost Stammen's trust early, and never really reclaimed it. He had two poor outings in late-game, high-leverage relief within the first fortnight of the season and never returned to regular work in that role. The mistrust was not entirely misplaced, either; Peralta's 16% strikeout rate is too low for a reliever without elite control or a sky-high ground-ball rate. Peralta remained Stammen's handy emergency arm for most of the year, but in the playoffs, the team seems to have reasoned, you're going to turn to your top guys in those early and mid-game emergencies, so why bother? Unfortunately, the last two games have given some examples of why. Here's a table showing how many times each Padres pitcher has faced each Brewers batter, through two games of the series. Name Matsui Morejon Ray Adam King Miller Morgan Musgrove Pivetta Rodriguez Vasquez Contreras XX X XX XX X Sanchez X Vaughn X X Bauers XX X XX XX X Turang XX X XX XX X Pratt X X XX XX Ortiz X X X Hamilton XX X Chourio X XX XXX X XX Mitchell X X X XX X X Lara X X X Frelick X XX X Managing a playoff series is a balancing act. You want to exploit matchups you've identified as favorable, but you don't want to overexpose them. A good rule of thumb is to avoid letting any opposing batter see a pitcher for a third time in a best-of-5, unless the pitcher is so good or the leverage is so low that familiarity truly becomes a minor consideration. Because of the way Stammen ran each game and the roster A.J. Preller gave him, the Brewers' top left-handed bats (Jake Bauers and Brice Turang) have each already seen Yuki Matsui twice. Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick have already seen him once, and William Contreras (a righty bat who's liable to light up a lefty like Matsui, as he proved against the other key lefty in the San Diego pen in Game 1) has seen him twice, too. Meanwhile, the entire Brewers lineup got their first look at Adrian Morejon in Game 1, including three (Luis Lara, Mitchell and Joey Ortiz) in the eighth inning, after Morejon had given up the go-ahead run on a Contreras homer in the seventh. Unnecessary exposure kills you in series like this. Stammen should have turned to David Morgan or Joe Musgrove for the eighth inning of that game, because if the Padres are to come back and win now, they'll almost certainly need Morejon for two more huge appearances, and a second or third look at him might make the difference between an out and a hit for an otherwise overmatched Milwaukee batter. Morgan and Musgrove don't have much of the skipper's trust, either, though, because of wildness (Morgan) and the inherent uncertainty of a very recent return after a long, long injury layoff (Musgrove). Peralta would have fit perfectly into that spot in Game 1. Worse than any of that, of course, is that the Padres not only lost Game 1 because Morejon ran into Contreras's barrel, but lost Game 2 in a way that could compromise Mason Miller even for Game 3. Miller threw 40 pitches in a grueling two-inning appearance, trying to gut out a save that would have shifted the momentum of the series. The momentum shifted, all right, but in Milwaukee's favor. Miller has a day to recover, but he's surely only available for one inning in Game 3, and he might not be his best self, even then. Morejon will be fully rested and ready, but again, San Diego has to win three games in a row now. They probably can't afford for Morejon to go multiple innings in the first of the three. Bradgley Rodríguez has also been used twice already, though given the way each of the Padres' starters' appearances went, that was probably unavoidable. He's worked mostly against the bottom of the Milwaukee lineup, so he could be in line to face the heart of the order the next time he's needed. He's already faced Jackson Chourio twice, though, which is a problem. He'll need to be shielded from a third matchup with Milwaukee's postseason Superman. If he isn't, it's likely to end badly. Having your backs to the wall after two road games in a best-of-5 isn't an unusual position. Lots of teams get here. Few of them take as much psychological damage as the Padres did over the weekend, though, and fewer still face the logistical problems the team's roster construction has introduced. If they come back and win this series, it will be the latest and greatest chapter of the team's current Golden Age. If they don't, there will be legitimate questions both about Stammen's management of the pitching staff and about the front office's failure to amass enough reliable depth for the manager to have done things any better. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins entered the 2026 season hoping Royce Lewis could finally put together the kind of consistent campaign that his talent has always suggested was possible. Instead, the former No. 1 overall pick enters the offseason facing perhaps the biggest question of his career: Does he still fit into the organization's plans? There is plenty of history tying Lewis to the Twins. Minnesota selected him first overall in the 2017 MLB Draft, and the organization has continued to invest opportunities in him despite injuries and inconsistent stretches at the plate. When Derek Shelton took over as manager last October, Lewis was the first player he visited for a one-on-one meeting. Now, the relationship has reached a crossroads. Lewis stayed healthier in 2026, spending only 10 days on the injured list, but his offensive performance remained a significant concern. He finished the season hitting .227/.287/.380 with 15 home runs, 24 doubles and an 86 OPS+. Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll acknowledged the progress in Lewis' availability but made it clear that the next step has to come at the plate. “His performance on the field, obviously, had ups and downs,” Zoll said in the organization’s end-of-season press conference. “For Royce that success just comes down to being more consistent over longer stretches. We’d love to find a way to figure that out and to have him become the impact player that he’s shown at various points along the way.” That leaves Minnesota with another major offseason decision. The Pros of Keeping Lewis The easiest argument for keeping Lewis is that the Twins have already seen what he can become. His 2023 season provided a glimpse of the player Minnesota envisioned when it selected him first overall. Lewis hit .309/.372/.548 with 15 home runs in only 58 games that season. He followed that up with a memorable postseason in which he hit four home runs in six playoff games. Those flashes haven't completely disappeared. The problem has been finding them consistently enough. Lewis also stayed relatively healthy in 2026 compared to previous seasons. He appeared in 125 games, easily surpassing his previous career high of 106 games. That matters for a player whose availability has been one of the biggest concerns throughout his career. There is also some potential defensive value in moving him around the diamond. Lewis has experience at third base, shortstop, second base and first base. Minnesota used him periodically at second base during the season, where he showed some positive defensive metrics in a relatively small sample. If the Twins believe the offensive player they saw in 2023 is still in there, keeping Lewis gives them another opportunity to find that version of him. There is also a financial element. Lewis remains under team control through 2028, although he is entering his third offseason of arbitration eligibility. MLB Trade Rumors estimates he'll make about $5.1 million in arbitration next year. The Twins don't have to make a long-term commitment to find out whether he can rebound. They can simply give him another opportunity. The Cons of Keeping Lewis The biggest problem is that the evidence is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Lewis' recent offensive production has been well below what the Twins need from a player who was once viewed as a foundational piece. Since the 2024 All-Star break, he has hit .226/.282/.376 with an 82 wRC+, which places him well below league average over a substantial sample. That creates a difficult roster-building question. If Lewis is going to remain in Minnesota, the Twins could move him into more of a platoon role at second base. That would allow the organization to pursue a better offensive player at first base, where the offensive expectations are considerably higher. That could be an important distinction. First base is one of the easiest positions on the diamond to upgrade offensively through free agency or a trade. If the Twins believe Lewis can provide adequate defense and enough offense at second, they can use their resources to find a legitimate run producer at first. But if Lewis can't hit enough to hold down second base, the entire plan becomes much more complicated. The Twins have already spent several seasons waiting for Lewis' bat to stabilize. At some point, the organization has to determine whether another opportunity is development or simply repetition. What Would the Timeline Look Like? The first major deadline comes in November. Lewis was arbitration eligible for the first time last winter and earned $2.85 million. Minnesota must decide whether to tender him a contract for 2027 by the league's tender deadline, which typically falls on the Friday before Thanksgiving. A non-tender would make Lewis a free agent. A trade could happen before that deadline, although the Twins don't have to rush into a decision. Minnesota can continue evaluating Lewis' market while also exploring other options at second base and first base. But if they do offer arbitration and can't find a trade partner, they're on the hook for roughly a $5M salary in 2027. If the Twins tender Lewis, they could negotiate a one-year arbitration contract or potentially explore a longer-term arrangement. The organization has used both approaches with arbitration-eligible players, although it has generally preferred to settle before arbitration hearings. The timing of a potential trade could be particularly interesting. Minnesota could attempt to move Lewis before the tender deadline, when another team would be acquiring a player with multiple years of control remaining. Or the Twins could keep him through the winter, determine how their roster comes together and make a decision later. The biggest question is what they believe Lewis' trade value looks like compared to his potential value in Minnesota. There isn't an easy answer with Lewis. The Twins have legitimate reasons to keep him. He's still relatively young, has multiple years of team control remaining and has demonstrated the ability to be an impact player at the major-league level. His improved availability in 2026 also removes one of the biggest concerns surrounding his future. But the offensive decline cannot be ignored. Minnesota needs to build a more productive offense, and Lewis has now produced below-average offensive numbers for a significant stretch. If the Twins keep him, they need a clear plan rather than simply hoping another season produces a different result. That could mean moving him to second base, giving him a defined role and using first base as an opportunity to add offense elsewhere. Or it could mean deciding that the best way forward for both sides is a trade and a change of scenery for Lewis. The Twins don't have to give up on Lewis this offseason. But they do have to decide what they believe he can become, where he fits, and how much longer they are willing to wait for that player to emerge. Will the Twins keep Lewis this winter? What could his role look like on the 2027 Twins? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

The Cubs' 2026 season officially concluded last week with a Wild Card Series loss to the San Diego Padres. Well before that, though, minor-league seasons had already ended, and depending on how much you paid attention, you may have missed quite the season for some of the top Cubs prospects. Chicago did part ways with their former Nos. 1 & 2 prospects (Moisés Ballesteros and Jefferson Rojas) during the season, creating a path for new prospects to step forward and make their mark atop the prospect rankings. Some of those prospects did just that. Let's dive into those seasons and crown our three Minor League Hitters of the Year in the Cubs' system. 3. Kane Kepley - 125 G, 444 AB, .243 AVG, 10 HR, 70 RBI, 70 SB, 120 BB, 127 R Kepley didn't have the best season in terms of average and power, the rest of what he did at the plate earns him a spot on this list. Kepley hit just .243 across two levels, but he posted a .422 on-base percentage, a higher number than his .401 slugging average. That .422 OBP was aided by his minor leagues-leading 120 walks, the fifth-most by any minor-league player since the 2005 season. Kepley made opposing pitchers pay for giving him a free pass, too, as he stole 70 bases. His efficiency in both areas is worth noting, too. In 595 plate appearances, he only struck out 89 times, despite working enough deep counts to rack up all those walks. He was caught stealing just six times en route to the 70 thefts. The combination of patience and speed earned him 127 runs scored, also the fifth-most in a minor-league season since 2005. Kepley still has a ways to go before reaching the major leagues but if he continues to get on base at over a .400 clip, his speed and patience may make for a quicker promotion that others who hit in the .240-.250 range. 2. Owen Ayers - 125 G, 447 AB, .289 AVG, 25 HR, 29 2B, 82 RBI, .929 OPS You could argue that Ayers was the top hitter in Chicago's farm system, as he had a nearly identical season to our No. 1 ranked hitter, Josiah Hartshorn. Ayers shot up through three levels this season, beginning the year with High-A South Bend and finishing with Triple-A Iowa. His best numbers came in his 69 games with Double-A Tennessee, where he slashed .304/.417/.591 with 16 home runs, 16 doubles, 48 RBIs and 42 walks. His production at Triple-A declined a bit, as he slashed .247/.365/.356 with three homers, 10 doubles and 20 RBIs. Ayers will start the 2027 at Triple-A, and with continued success both at the plate and behind the dish, there's a very good chance we'll see him on the major-league roster at some point during the season. 1. Josiah Hartshorn - 125 G, 450 AB, .284 AVG, 23 HR, 112 RBI, 91 BB, .925 OPS The new and undisputed top prospect in the Cubs organization is our top Minor League Hitter of the Year. Hartshorn, the 6th-round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, burst onto the scene in 2026 and made a major name for himself. Much like Ayers, Hartshorn made it through to three different levels during the season and put the baseball world on notice. The difference is, he did it all at age 19. Hartshorn's most action came with High-A South Bend, where he slashed .297/.405/.560 with 17 doubles, 18 home runs, 85 RBIs, 54 walks and 12 stolen bases. The 85 RBIs set a new South Bend Cubs record, and he was the only Cubs prospect to reach 100 RBIs overall, at any level. It was one of the best prospect seasons in recent memory for Chicago, and Hartshorn earned the right to be the No. 1 prospect in the organization. He'll have a legion of eyes on him entering the 2027 season, and with another outstanding season, he could be a dark horse candidate to be a September call-up. If nothing else, though, his stock is way up from when he was drafted. The Cubs have to celebrate (and capitalize upon) such occasions. View the full article

The 2026 season was a trying one for the Omaha Storm Chasers. They finished 65-81, which was enough to place them third-to-last in the International League West division. Omaha finished higher in the division than the Louisville Bats (Reds) and Iowa Cubs (Cubs). It was not surprising that the Storm Chasers finished so poorly. They lacked high-end prospect talent for most of the season, and relied heavily on former MLB veterans to carry the roster. On the hitting end, that included Abraham Toro, Josh Rojas, Brandon Drury, and Kevin Newman, all of whom have seen considerable time in the Majors. On the pitching end, Mitch Spence, Eli Morgan, Aaron Sanchez, Vince Velasquez, and Anthony Gose were veterans who carried the Storm Chasers' rotation and/or bullpen. However, some key standouts on the Storm Chasers this year could have an impact in 2027 and beyond. Here's a look at four "award winners" from Royals Keep who fans should pay attention to next season after solid campaigns in Triple-A. Hitter of the Year: Brett Squires, 1B/LF Squires won the George Brett Hitter of the Year Award, which goes to the top-hitting performer in the Minor Leagues, and also won the official Storm Chasers Hitter of the Year Award. So it's no surprise that Squires takes "Hitter of the Year" honors at Royals Keep, especially since no one matched him over a full season. In 369 at-bats with Omaha, the former Oklahoma product slashed .271/.339/.553 with an .892 OPS. He hit 25 home runs, scored 56 runs, drove in 74 runs, and stole 15 bases on 15 attempts. His Statcast numbers were also impressive: a barrel rate of 12.4%, a 90th EV of 106 MPH, and a pull air% of 17.2%. While Werner Park is hitter-friendly, Squires' batted-ball data shows he can translate his skills to the Major League level. Two questions remain with Squires this offseason: 1.) Will he be selected in the December Rule 5 MLB Draft? And 2.) Will the Royals add him to the 40-man roster this offseason to protect him from that Draft? Unfortunately, the answer isn't clear. First, the upcoming labor stoppage could cancel the MLB Winter Meetings and, in turn, the Rule 5 Draft. Second, Squires' natural position is first base, and the Royals are flush with options there next year, including Vinnie Pasquantino, Jac Caglianone, and Salvador Perez, who all spent considerable time there in 2026 (and are expected to again in 2027). The key to adding Squires could rest on whether he can play left field at the Major League level. In his end-of-year press conference, President of Baseball Operations JJ Picollo said that they needed to upgrade in left and center field. Obviously, the latter is out, but could Squires slide into left field in 2027? He can't be a complete drain defensively, but if Squires can showcase that 20-25 HR potential in Arizona this spring, then it's possible he could be an internal option who could at least platoon in left field next season. Pitcher of the Year: Ben Sears, RHP The 26-year-old righty had a solid year in the Storm Chasers bullpen. A former 2022 14th-round pick out of Houston, Sears posted a 3.91 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 4.61 FIP in 69 IP. He's not a high-strikeout guy (19% K%), but he limited walks (9.5% BB%) and generated a ton of ground balls (50.7%). That made him a useful option for the Storm Chasers in the middle innings, especially with runners on base. Stuff-wise, Sears wasn't anything special, as evidenced by his overall TJ Stuff+ of 96. However, he had a seven-pitch mix, and his two primary pitches (sinker and sweeper) posted above-average whiff rates of 15.7% and 35.9%, respectively. That gives him a Seth Lugo-esque arsenal, and Sears also showed Lugo-esque athleticism on the mound this year. I am not sure if Sears will be a high-end or high-leverage reliever anytime soon. That said, his diverse arsenal and ability to generate groundballs make me wonder whether he could build a long-term career as a low-leverage middle reliever or a long reliever who could eventually transition to starting, especially if he can tweak his pitches to improve their quality. Given the Storm Chasers' pitching shortage this year, Sears helped keep Omaha competitive on the mound and shouldn't be overlooked. He's the kind of pitcher who may not make his debut until 28 or 29, but could surprise once he finally matriculates to the Majors. Most Intriguing Prospect: Gavin Cross, OF The ninth overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft out of Virginia Tech, Cross's minor league career has been polarizing. He's been a rollercoaster at each level in the Royals system since being drafted over four years ago, with a mix of lackluster play and injuries (including Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever) that have limited his ceiling and impact. Things didn't look good for Cross early this year, as he posted a .243 OPS in March and a .370 OPS in April. He improved to .695 in May, but that still didn't look great for a guy repeating at the Triple-A level. However, Cross came absolutely alive once the weather turned. After a decent .754 OPS in June, he posted a 1.057 OPS in July and 1.049 OPS in August. An injury in August limited him to just 11 games that month and 14 in September, and he cooled off in the last month of the season, posting only a .603 OPS. However, when healthy, Cross demonstrated that he could be an option in the corner outfield for Kansas City in 2027. For the season, Cross slashed .245/.305/.432 with a .737 OPS in 467 plate appearances. He also hit 17 home runs and stole 25 bases, leading the Storm Chasers in stolen bases this season. If he can cut down his strikeouts (31.5% K%), Cross could be at least a 15 HR-15 SB guy at the Major League level, which would help him stick as a platoon outfielder in 2027, at the very least. Biggest Riser: Beck Way, RHP Acquired from the Yankees in the 2022 trade involving Andrew Benintendi, Way finally limited walks and put it all together in 2026 in Omaha. That helped him make his MLB debut with the Royals and find a spot in the bullpen until a shoulder injury on July 24th shut him down for the remainder of the season. In his MLB rookie season, Way posted a 3.86 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 23.1 IP. He struck out 20% of batters, posted a 10.5% K-BB%, and generated a 56.5% GB%. While not a high-leverage guy, Way produced good stuff and strong chase and whiff rates for a rookie, as shown below via TJ Stats. However, Way got to the Majors on his solid performance in Omaha this season. In 20 outings and 31 IP, he posted a 4.35 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. While those aren't great numbers on the surface, his FIP was better at 2.80, and he also generated a 32.6% K% and 25% K-BB%. He also posted a 64.6% GB%, a 104 TJ Stuff+, a 29.7% whiff rate, and an xwOBACON of .337. TJ Stats rated all those marks as above average. His 50.9% zone rate also rated above average, a nice development given that he struggled to throw strikes at various levels in the past. Way is expected to be ready to go by Spring Training, and he could (and should) be part of the Royals' bullpen in 2027, along with Nate Pearson and Steven Cruz. Like Pearson and Cruz, Way probably should be limited to middle relief. That said, he has the stuff and ability to induce ground balls to thrive in that role both next year and beyond. Pitchers like Way (cost-controlled), if healthy and successful, could help change the bullpen culture that's plagued the Royals in the past, especially in 2026. View the full article