DiamondCentric

With no games on the Twins' schedule this week, the focus shifted to the forums, where fans debated the latest developments in the organization. This week's Forum Friday highlights five threads, including discussions on Marek Houston's rise in the prospect rankings, Gabriel Gonzalez's uncertain future, the search for a 2027 Opening Day catcher, the state of the 2026 farm system, and speculation about the Twins possibly returning to the sale market. Are you exhausted by algorithmic internet "discussion"? Tired of seeing posts that are meant only to anger you, bait you into a response, or find yet another way to extract your personal data? Come join the conversation on the human-moderated Twins Daily forums, where you can talk Twins baseball without the constant barrage of misinformation, hot takes and loudmouths. Joining is free: create an account at diamondcentric.net, then use that same login here to comment. Why Marek Houston is One of the Fastest Risers Among Top-100 Prospects A discussion on Marek Houston's rapid rise in MLB Pipeline's Top 100 prospects, jumping from No. 71 to No. 54 in 2026, focused on his offensive improvements, defensive skills, and potential impact with the Twins. Commenters highlighted his high contact rate, speed, and defensive prowess, suggesting he could be an elite shortstop with a solid bat. Some members speculated on his potential promotion to the majors and how his arrival might affect the Twins' infield configuration. Gabriel Gonzalez’s Future with the Twins is Getting Complicated Minnesota Twins prospects and their development, particularly outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez, sparked discussion after his underwhelming 2026 season. Commenters noted his drop in offensive production compared to 2025, with concerns over his defensive limitations in the outfield and lack of power. Some suggested moving him to first base or DH, where his right-handed bat might be more valuable, while others questioned his long-term potential and criticized the Twins' acquisition in the Jorge Polanco trade. 2027 Opening Day Catcher A thread on the Twins Daily forums discusses potential 2027 Opening Day catchers following assumptions that Ryan Jeffers will decline a qualifying offer and sign elsewhere, creating a need for a replacement. Commenters debate options, citing the need for a catcher skilled in controlling the running game, as both Jeffers and current backup Willianson Caratini have struggled in this area. Some suggest exploring free agents or trades, while others advocate for developing internal prospects like Alex Jackson or Lackey. Biggest Winners and Losers in the Twins' Farm System in 2026 This thread discusses the Twins' 2026 farm system, highlighting Marek Houston as a major winner due to his offensive improvements and defensive skills. Commenters also noted concerns about high strikeout rates among prospects, with some suggesting the system needs more quality pitching depth. There was agreement that minor league teams underperformed, though some emphasized that development, not wins, should be the focus. The discussion also touched on the lack of standout pitchers from the 2025 draft and the need for better player development strategies. Sale Back On? Varde Partners A report resurfaced suggesting the Twins might be back on the market, prompting discussion about potential buyers, ownership rules, and the role of Tom Pohlad. Commenters questioned the credibility of the report, noting it originated from Charlie Walters, and debated whether the Pohlad family would remain involved if a sale occurred. Some believed the Twins had never stopped intending to sell, while others expressed hope that Pohlad’s commitment to the team would prevent a deal. It's another great day to be a Twins fan at Twins Daily! View the full article

The Brewers went 3-1 this week, with a mix of wins and losses against the Padres. This week's Forum Friday highlights five threads, including debates on a potential Brewers Mount Rushmore, NLCS roster decisions, discussions about the Brewers-Dodgers NLCS matchup, reactions to MLB's proposed CBA changes, and talk about who should start for the Brewers in an important game. Are you exhausted by algorithmic internet "discussion"? Tired of seeing posts that are meant only to anger you, bait you into a response, or find yet another way to extract your personal data? Come join the conversation on the human-moderated Brewer Fanatic forums, where you can talk Brewers baseball without the constant barrage of misinformation, hot takes and loudmouths. Joining is free: create an account at diamondcentric.net, then use that same login here to comment. Brewers Mount Rushmore? A thread on the Brewers' potential Mount Rushmore sparked lively debate, with members weighing in on candidates like Yount, Molitor, Braun, Yelich, and Chourio. Commenters generally agreed on Yount and Molitor as locks, while opinions split on the remaining spots—some favored Braun despite his scandal, others argued for Yelich or Chourio. A few suggested including non-players like Uecker or Henry Aaron, and there was humor about Rollie Fingers. NLCS Roster? Commenters debated whether the Brewers' NLCS roster should differ from the NLDS, focusing on Dustin May's potential inclusion or replacement. Some argued for dropping May, citing his poor performance and lack of recent competitive pitching, while others believed he might be needed for short, high-leverage innings due to the Dodgers' lefty-heavy lineup. Several members suggested using younger pitchers like Drohan or Harrison instead, but others felt May's high-octane stuff made him valuable in a multi-inning role. Brewers vs Dodgers Open Thread: News / Notes / Predictions / Miscellaneous. What's on your Mind? Members discussed the Brewers' chances against the Dodgers in the NLCS, noting the Brewers' improved health and performance this season compared to last year, while acknowledging the Dodgers' strong rotation but aging lineup. Commenters debated the impact of pitching matchups, with some emphasizing the Brewers' left-handed pitching depth as a key advantage against the Dodgers' left-handed hitters. MLB has proposed shortening the regular season from 162 to 154 games in CBA negotiations with the Players Association. MLB's proposal to shorten the regular season to 154 games, expand the Division Series to seven games, and allow high seeds to choose their playoff opponents sparked debate. Commenters were divided, with some opposing the shorter season due to historical and record concerns, while others supported it for reducing the season's length. Most welcomed the longer Division Series but were split on the "pick your opponent" rule, with some calling it a gimmick and others seeing it as a strategic advantage. It's another great day to be a Brewers fan at Brewer Fanatic! View the full article

Every offseason brings change, but sometimes, the best way to fix a team’s weaknesses is by looking back. As the Twins head into the 2027 offseason, a few familiar faces could make sense, as the team looks to fill holes from the 2026 roster. Of course, nostalgia alone isn’t enough. The numbers must back it up, whether that means a former Twin still has the bat, arm, or underlying metrics to contribute. Here are a few “old friends” who are 2027 free agents, and whom the Twins could therefore consider bringing back. Ty France – 1B, San Diego Padres After a disappointing 2025 campaign offensively, he still won a Gold Glove for his first base play for the Twins and Blue Jays. The offseason didn’t present a ton of opportunity for France, as he signed a minor-league deal with the team that initially drafted him. The 32-year-old has had a resurgence this year, slashing .295/.363/.502 in 500 plate appearances while clobbering 21 home runs, a career high. France could be the primary first baseman for the Twins in 2027, as well as another right-handed bat to plug into the middle of their lineup. While France will have suitors this offseason, the Twins should at least put in an offer, given the revolving door they had at first base in 2026 and how popular France was in the clubhouse during his brief stint with the team. Luis Arraez – 2B, Philadelphia Phillies This season was a tale of two teams for Arraez, as his first half with the Giants led to a trade to the contending Phillies. He slashed .324/.360/.440 in 464 plate appearances for San Francisco, compared to .278/.309/.369 in 191 plate appearances for Philadelphia. The main development for Arraez this season was his defense. The 29-year-old spoke out this offseason about wanting to return to second base, and he backed it up, posting the highest Outs Above Average of his career (12). It was a nice return to form for Arraez offensively, given his 101 OPS+ with the Padres the season before, a career-low mark. He could be an option for the Twins to add at second base. Is it the most realistic option? Certainly not, given the Twins' infield depth, plethora of left-handed bats, and young players penciled into roles for 2027 already. Still, with the uncertainty surrounding Royce Lewis’s place on the Twins, an infielder could (and should) be added, so why not Arraez? Isiah Kiner-Falefa – UTIL, Boston Red Sox This one is stretching a bit, as Kiner-Falefa was a Twin for not even two days (in the offseason, at that) before being traded to the Yankees. He’s bounced around since then, spending time with the Blue Jays, Pirates, and now the Red Sox. His offensive ability isn’t great, as he slashed .242/.322/.311 in 183 plate appearances in Boston this year. Kiner-Falefa’s career OPS+ is 81, so he wouldn’t be brought in to provide meaningful at-bats at the top of the order. The 31-year-old could still provide value as a defense-first utility man off the bench, though. He appeared at all four infield spots, though he spent most of his time at second base. The Twins could have a player such as Ryan Kreidler or Ben Ross fill the utility infield role, but Kiner-Falefa is still a plus defender, posting 8 OAA in 2026, and he could contribute as a fill-in player for Culpepper at short and whoever's playing second base. Brusdar Graterol – RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers Injuries have been the roadblock of late for Graterol, who went to the Dodgers in the Kenta Maeda trade back in 2020. After posting a 1.4-fWAR season in 2023, the 28-year-old has only thrown 7 1/3 big-league innings since 2024, missing all of the last two seasons and undergoing back surgery in June. Still, when he is healthy, Graterol is effective. His career ERA is 2.78 (3.20 FIP), with a WHIP of 1.04. Graterol should not be relied on to provide any kind of consistency for a team in 2027, but if the Twins were to sign him to a minor-league deal, he would be a low-risk, high-upside signing that teams with budgets such as the Twins are always searching for. Other relievers (such as David Bednar or Bryan Abreu) would be surer things, but if Graterol is healthy and performing as he has before, he could be a very productive player. Steven Okert – LHP, Houston Astros Okert has become a completely different pitcher since he departed Minnesota after the 2024 season. The 35-year-old signed with the Astros and hasn’t looked back, posting a 2.58 ERA (2.99 FIP) in 139 1/3 innings in Houston over the two seasons he's pitched there. His slider has been his best pitch—almost the only one, but good enough to allow him to thrive without much of a complement. He isn’t just a platoon pitcher, either. His OPS allowed to right-handed batters is only slightly higher (.591) than his OPS allowed to lefties (.545). There may be some cause for concern given his home/road splits (0.97 ERA at home, 3.52 on the road), but the need for a left-handed arm is there for the Twins. Taylor Rogers and A.J. Minter are both headed out the door. Okert would be another trusted veteran arm for Derek Shelton and the new pitching coach (whoever that may be) to utilize in the bullpen, alongside Jeff Hoffman, Andrew Morris, Yoendrys Gómez, and others. Beyond the five above, there are a few other names who are possibilities but might not make sense. The Twins may have a need at catcher. Mitch Garver and Christian Vázquez could be cheap, low-risk options, although it's hard to imagine either being excited about a reunion—or fans being happy about one, either. Gary Sánchez could be a major-league backup option, though. Tyler Austin and Lamonte Wade Jr. could provide some first-base depth, while veteran starters such as Tyler Mahle and Martín Pérez could be options to add some depth to the starting rotation. Caleb Thielbar would be another familiar, low-cost bullpen option, if he doesn’t retire, but his numbers were not great in his age-39 season (4.70 FIP in 50 innings). None of these names would be major additions, but each could provide some depth—and maybe some upside, if the right opportunity presents itself. The Twins don’t need to bring back every former player purely based on nostalgia, but there are certainly names here who could help the team in 2027. None of them should be out of the Twins’ price range, especially with the Pohlads insisting they will invest in the team’s payroll. Nevertheless, the Twins have lots of decisions to make about the 2027 roster, and a reunion or two could boost the on-field play, as well as fan sentiment. The best offseason moves aren’t always the biggest names on the market, but rather, cheaper players who can fill a role for a team that needs it. Besides, who doesn’t love a reunion? What are your thoughts? Could any of these names be contributors for the 2027 Twins? View the full article

While the minor leagues include a number of players who aren’t prospects, particularly at the upper levels, the focus of the farm system is about developing those who have long-term futures with a team. For the San Diego Padres, that is very true. The Friars’ Triple-A team was made up mostly of players trying to get back to the majors or journeyman minor-league free agents. Why is that important? Because this part of Padres Mission’s awards season for the minors is all about the prospects. There will be no players who have had any MLB experience or are past prospect age. So, welcome to the 2026 Padres Mission Prospect All-Star Team. It is with that caveat why you will not find two players on this team. One is obvious: Left-handed starter Kash Mayfield would have been an easy choice for this list, but he was traded to the Detroit Tigers in the Casey Mize deal. Another is Carlos Rodriguez, the outfielder for the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas. I ruled him out due to his age (26 in December) and the fact that he has already been a six-year minor-league free agent. That was a tough call because Rodriguez had a very nice season this year. Without further adieu, here is this year’s all-prospect team. 2026 Padres Mission Prospect All-Star Team Catcher: Ethan Salas Team(s): Double-A San Antonio, Triple-A El Paso Season stats: .296/.374/.448, 96 games, 54 R, 19 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 61 RBI, 17 SB, 8 CS The no-brainer of no-brainers. Padres Mission’s No. 1 prospect set career highs in pretty much every offensive category while playing 17 fewer games than 2024 in his first full pro season at High-A Fort Wayne. The performance of the left-handed hitter was even more significant considering Salas, who turned 20 on June 1, missed all but 10 games of the 2025 season with a stress reaction in his lower back. That caused him to fall down most national prospect rankings. He won’t be on this list in the future after making his MLB debut down the stretch and is destined to be the Padres’ starting catcher starting in 2027. First base: Albert Fabian Team(s): Double-A San Antonio Season stats: .268/.326/.432, 107 games, 59 R, 20 2B, 3 3B, 12 HR, 54 RBI, 12 SB, 2 CS The 24-year-old split time between first base and the two outfield corners, logging the most time at first. The left-handed hitter, signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, re-signed with the Padres after becoming a minor-league free agent last offseason. Fabian was also coming back from a major injury. He returned late in the 2025 season from a significant leg injury in May 2024. This year, he had the best slash line of his career, with his slugging percentage just down from the .441 mark he put up in 2022 and 2023, when he hit 16 homers in each season. He has done a nice job of cutting down on his strikeouts, posting an 18.6% strikeout rate this year, the best of his career. Second base: Jose Verdugo Team(s): Low-A Lake Elsinore Season stats: .277/.333/.362, 105 games, 27 R, 12 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR, 54 RBI, 37 SB, 7 CS Playing his first season in the U.S. and doing it as an 18-year-old, Verdugo is a very good defender who mainly played second base this season, although he started all five of the Storm’s playoff games at shortstop, with Jorge Quintana (Padres Mission’s No. 7 prospect) shifting over to third and 2026 second-round draft pick Elliot Lascelles at second. The 5-foot-7, 150-pound Verdugo, signed as an international free agent out of Mexico in 2024, doesn’t hit for much power, but did do a nice job when he did make contact with a .277 average. Of the right-handed hitter’s 104 hits, only 20 went for extra bases, with 12 doubles, four triples and four homers. His size will always have people doubting him, but the Padres gave him a good look this year and he held his own. Third base: Kerrington Cross Team(s): Low-A Lake Elsinore, High-A Fort Wayne, Double-A San Antonio Season stats: .277/.415/.500, 115 games, 78 R, 25 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 24 SB, 7 CS The Padres’ seventh-round draft choice in 2025 out of Cincinnati did in his first full pro season what he did in his college career: hit. The 24-year-old right-handed hitter had a .313/.467/.608 slash line with 11 homers in 58 games for the Storm before getting bumped up to the TinCaps, where he didn’t have the same success (.239/.365/.392) in 52 games. He got a brief, end-of-season promotion to Double-A San Antonio, where he went 6-for-20 (.300/.364/.500) with a homer. One other big piece of Cross’ game is getting on base. He easily led the Padres’ system with 80 walks. Cross played both infield corners and has a chance to stick at third. Shortstop: Justin DeCriscio Team(s): Low-A Lake Elsinore, High-A Fort Wayne, Double-A San Antonio Season stats: .270/.358/.425, 121 games, 70 R, 29 2B, 2 3B, 13 HR, 59 RBI, 22 SB, 11 CS Selected in the 10th round of the 2025 draft out of North Carolina State after three years at the University of San Diego, the former Orange Lutheran High School hit a total of 14 home runs in four years in college (182 games), then turned around and hit 13 in his first full pro season while reaching three levels. Like other draft picks, he got his feet wet at Low-A Lake Elsinore in his draft year, then began 2026 back with the Storm. There, he opened the season with a .311/.363/.544 slash line with three homers and 18 RBIs in 28 games. He went up to High-A Fort Wayne and while the slash line suffered a bit (.259/.355/.403), he did hit nine homers in 73 games. DeCriscio went up to Double-A San Antonio and posted a slash line near his Fort Wayne mark in 20 games (.257/.366/.343). While shortstop was the position he played most, he also showed versatility by playing second, third and a bit in the corner outfield spots. Left field: Alex McCoy Team(s): High-A Fort Wayne, Double-A San Antonio Season stats: .278/.355/.467, 123 games, 74 R, 31 2B, 1 3B, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 24 SB, 9 CS The 24-year-old undrafted free agent was the breakout star in the Padres’ system this year. The hulking right-handed hitter (6-foot-5, 260 pounds) isn’t just a power hitter, though. Yes, Padres Mission’s No. 8 prospect did tie for the system lead with 19 homers, but he also finished second in the chain with 31 doubles. Even with 25 games at Double-A, he still finished third in the High-A Midwest League with 27 doubles, just two off the lead. There is more power to be had as McCoy has 90th percentile exit velocity, according to FanGraphs. That is, there's more power to be had if he resolves the one big hole in his game: strikeouts. He struck out 142 times in 123 games, good for a whopping 26.2% strikeout rate. McCoy will look to refine that as he participates in the Arizona Fall League this autumn. The corner outfielder has a little speed in his game, too, just missing a 20-20 season by one homer as he swiped 24 bases. Center field: Ryan Wideman Team(s): Low-A Lake Elsinore, High-A Fort Wayne Season stats: .286/.350/.406, 109 games, 73 R, 24 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 59 RBI, 65 SB, 22 CS One of the brightest stars in the Padres’ system, the 2025 third-round draft pick out of Western Kentucky possesses game-changing speed. After stealing 43 bases in the first half of the season at Low-A Lake Elsinore, Padres Mission’s No. 2 prospect stole another 22 with High-A Fort Wayne before an injury sidelined the 22-year-old for the final three weeks of the season. The right-handed-hitting center fielder led all of the minors in steals for much of the season, with his 65 bags falling just five short of the minors lead. After a .314/.389/.504 slash line in 65 games with the Storm, he slumped to a .246/.292/.267 mark in 44 games for the TinCaps. It was a little surprising not to see Wideman not picked for the Arizona Fall League, but perhaps the Padres felt he needed a break. In a brief debut last year with Lake Elsinore, Wideman had a 28.6% strikeout rate over 26 games. That improved to 20.6% between his two stops this year, a nice bit of progress. His walk rate, however, had a precipitous drop from 10.7% to 6.8%. Getting on base more frequently will help him take advantage of his blazing speed. Right field: Braedon Karpathios Team(s): Double-A San Antonio, Triple-A El Paso Season stats: .258/.344/.423, 130 games, 64 R, 22 2B, 3 3B, 17 HR, 73 RBI, 64 BB, 174 K, 6 SB, 6 CS Another surprise this year, Padres Mission’s No. 9 prospect put together a nice season at Double-A San Antonio before playing the final two weeks with Triple-A El Paso. With San Antonio, the left-handed hitter had a slash line of .268/.353/.444 with 17 homers and 73 RBIs. The 23-year-old had gotten his feet wet with the Missions last year with 21 Double-A games after an okay year at High-A Fort Wayne (.254/.370/.410, 12 HRs, 55 RBIs, 103 games). Karpathios had an impressive 13-RBI week before his promotion, then struggled in his brief time with the Chihuahuas. Strikeouts remain a problem for the young outfielder, who led the Padres’ system with 174 K’s (more than 30 clear of No. 2) for a 32% strikeout rate, up from 28% the year before. Karpathios is eligible for the Rule 5 draft this offseason, but it would be surprising to see the Padres add him to the 40-man roster without a major carrying tool. Designated hitter: Jake Cunningham Team(s): High-A Fort Wayne, Double-A San Antonio Season stats: .283/.369/.516, 96 games, 60 R, 18 2B, 2 3B, 19 HR, 61 RBI, 10 SB, 6 CS The only player to have a three-homer game in the chain, the 24-year-old outfielder resurrected his career in his first season in the Padres’ system. The 2023 fifth-round pick out of North Carolina-Charlotte was released by the Baltimore Orioles after a .206/.295/.303 slash line in 2025, his second in which he missed good chunks of time with injuries. He mostly avoided major injuries this year, only missing the final month of the season. Cunningham had his three-homer game June 5 vs. Lake County, the fourth three-homer game in Fort Wayne history. He had a nice showing with the TinCaps, posting a career-high slash line of .269/.369/.560 in 57 games, hitting 15 homers and driving in 35. But he improved those numbers when he moved up to Double-A San Antonio, going .301/.370/.459 in 39 games. Since the Padres signed him as a minor-league free agent, Cunningham will hit the market again this offseason and his return is uncertain. Right-handed starter: Ian Koenig Team(s): Double-A San Antonio, Triple-A El Paso Season stats: 8-10, 4.19 ERA, 29 games (all starts), 148⅓ IP, 140 H, 82 R, 69 ER, 38 BB 130 K, .248 opponent average Another successful undrafted free-agent signing, the 25-year-old right-hander has put himself on the radar for the Padres. After 24 starts and a 4.60 ERA over 121⅓ innings at Double-A San Antonio, Koenig jumped up to Triple-A El Paso and had a tremendous final five starts: He turned in a 2.33 ERA over 27 innings. The biggest reason for Koenig’s success this year was his improved control. He walked 38 over 148⅓ innings this year after issuing four fewer walks in 45 less innings. He also dropped his opponent batting average by 20 points to .248 this year. However, one issue exists: He gives up homers. Koenig is a fly-ball pitcher, with a 35.4% mark this year that produced 22 homers. That fly-ball rate improved after three straight seasons between 40% and 43.3%. The question for his offseason will be whether the Padres protect him in the Rule 5 draft. Left-handed starter: Adler Cecil Team(s): Arizona Complex League, Low-A Lake Elsinore Season stats: 2-3, 4.09 ERA, 19 games (11 starts), 61⅔ IP, 41 H, 37 R, 28 ER, 38 BB, 107 K, .187 If you want to get excited about a Padres pitching prospect, the 21-year-old left-hander deserves the hype. When including a postseason appearance, the 2023 19th-round draft pick struck out an eye-popping 112 over just 64⅔ innings, finishing fourth in the system in K’s. The three players ahead of him had innings totals of 92⅔, 143⅓ and 135. That gave Cecil a 39.5% strikeout rate. Granted, 41⅓ of his innings came in the Arizona Complex League, but Cecil missed the entire 2025 season after having Tommy John surgery. He had two 10-strikeout games in the ACL (five- and four-inning starts), then topped out at eight in his six appearances at Low-A Lake Elsinore. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him start out with the Storm, then get an early promotion to High-A Fort Wayne based on his performance in 2027. Right-handed reliever: Tucker Musgrove Team(s): High-A Fort Wayne, Double-A San Antonio Season stats: 2-2, 3.41 ERA, 34 games (all relief), 5 holds, 3 saves (7 chances), 34⅓ IP, 25 H, 16 R, 13 ER, 25 BB, 68 K, .200 opponent average Originally thought of as a two-way player when the Padres took him in the seventh round of the 2023 draft out of NAIA school Mobile (Ala.), Tommy John surgery following the draft changed the right-hander's course. The Padres wanted Musgrove to ditch his dream as a center fielder and focus on what he can do on the mound. Musgrove spent 2025 getting accustomed to pro ball and just being a pitcher. What the Padres figured out, because of a couple of small setbacks in his recovery, is that Musgrove is best off in a relief role. The right-hander's stuff, which includes the ability to reach triple digits, has played up in the bullpen. He had a tremendous 42.8% strikeout rate, while his walk rate was at 15.7%. While his rates were slightly worse following his promotion from High-A Fort Wayne to Double-A San Antonio, he did post a better ERA (3.79 to 2.93). Musgrove, whose season ended early due to injury, should be back at Double-A to begin 2027. Left-handed reliever: Braian Salazar Team(s): High-A Fort Wayne Season stats: 3-4, 4.25 ERA, 38 games (all relief), 5 holds, 1 save (1 chance), 55 IP, 45 H, 26 R, 26 ER, 31 BB, 67 K, .225 opponent average Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2022 out of Venezuela, the 21-year-old left-hander ended the season on the injured list, but finished strong otherwise. Salazar had a 10⅔-inning scoreless streak before being sidelined in late August. He made the second-most appearances for High-A Fort Wayne (38). After spending most of 2025 at Low-A Lake Elsinore with three appearances at Fort Wayne, Salazar made some strides this year. While pitching almost the same innings this year (55) as he did last year (55⅔), Salazar allowed fewer hits (53-45), runs (40-26) and walks (45-31), but also struck out fewer batters (80-67). His opponent average also went down from .244 to .225, though he gave up five homers after not giving up a single one last year. The biggest target area for improvement remains his control, as his 12.9% walk rate remains too high for comfort. View the full article

With no games this week, the forums remained active as members discussed a range of topics. This week's Forum Friday highlights three threads: one on Roger Clemens receiving the Presidential Medal of Freedom, another on the 2027 Mets roster, and a discussion comparing Aroldis Chapman's physical changes over the years. Are you exhausted by algorithmic internet "discussion"? Tired of seeing posts that are meant only to anger you, bait you into a response, or find yet another way to extract your personal data? Come join the conversation on the human-moderated Grand Central Mets forums, where you can talk Mets baseball without the constant barrage of misinformation, hot takes, and loudmouths. Joining is free: create an account at diamondcentric.net, then use that same login here to comment. Mets Roster Central 2027 Members discussed the 2027 Mets roster, focusing on the team's reliance on young players and lack of major offseason moves. Commenters noted the potential of rookies and the uncertain future of released minor-leaguers like Simon Juan. There was debate over the platoon potential of Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, with some arguing their combined .745 OPS could be useful but others criticizing their defensive weaknesses. Some suggested a 75-win projection, while others expressed optimism about adding key players to build a competitive team. You Can't Spell "Aroldis" without "ARod" A thread comparing Aroldis Chapman's 2009 and 2026 appearances sparked discussion about his physical changes and potential PED use. Commenters debated whether his build was due to natural growth or performance-enhancing drugs, citing his free-agent signings and MLB drug testing policies. Some questioned why teams didn’t test him during free agency, while others emphasized that PED testing is not standard in free-agent physicals. Most agreed that concluding PED use based solely on photos is unreliable, though some expressed skepticism about the league’s oversight. Presidential Medal of Freedom Discusses Roger Clemens receiving the Presidential Medal of Freedom, with commenters expressing mixed reactions. Some criticized Clemens' past, referencing allegations and his association with Trump, while others questioned the honor's validity. A detailed reply corrected claims about Clemens' Hall of Fame status and hit-by-pitch statistics. Most members agreed the decision was controversial, with some suggesting it reflected political connections rather than athletic achievement. It's another great day to be a Mets fan at Grand Central Mets! View the full article

His power might not jump off the page, but Mitch Voit brings contact skills, speed, and defensive versatility to the table. After a strong finish at Double-A, the Mets prospect is quickly becoming one to watch. View the full article

With no games this week, Talk Sox's forums remained active, focusing on various topics. This week's Forum Friday highlights three threads: a discussion on the low-scoring 2026 MLB postseason, debates about a potential MLB salary cap, and celebration of Smiley-Beni Day 2026. Members shared insights on the Red Sox's performance, the future of MLB finances, and the tradition of marking the Yankees' elimination from playoff contention. Are you exhausted by algorithmic internet "discussion"? Tired of seeing posts that are meant only to anger you, bait you into a response, or find yet another way to extract your personal data? Come join the conversation on the human-moderated Talk Sox forums, where you can talk Red Sox baseball without the constant barrage of misinformation, hot takes and loudmouths. Joining is free: create an account at diamondcentric.net, then use that same login here to comment. 2026 MLB post-Red Sox postseason thread Commenters discussed the low-scoring nature of the 2026 MLB postseason, noting 54 runs and 117 hits across 10 games, with teams averaging 2.7 runs and 5.85 hits per game. Posts referenced ex-Red Sox pitchers impacting multiple teams, including Jordan Hicks and John Schreiber, and debated the Red Sox's lack of home runs despite some players hitting career highs. Some members suggested moving the outfield fence or adjusting the field layout to increase scoring, while others criticized the team's press conference and suggested managerial changes. Arbitration--Salary Cap Members debated the potential implementation of a salary cap in MLB, citing concerns over rising player salaries and the impact on team spending. Suggestions included increasing minimum pay, shortening arbitration timelines, and expanding rosters. Some argued that owners prioritize profits over fan interests, while others believed a cap would not gain enough owner support. There was agreement that current spending disparities harm competitive balance, but opinions were split on whether a cap would effectively address these issues. Smiley-Beni Day 2026 Members celebrated Smiley-Beni Day 2026, a tradition marking the Yankees' elimination from postseason contention, as a way to cope with the Red Sox's disappointing season. Discussions referenced the Yankees' loss to the Rays, with commenters noting the team's struggles and the contrast between the Red Sox and Yankees' performances. Many expressed enjoyment in the Yankees' defeat, though some acknowledged the frustration of the Red Sox's own shortcomings. It's another great day to be a Red Sox fan at Talk Sox! View the full article

You can't have a season as good as Pete Crow-Armstrong's 2026 without getting a bit lucky. In Crow-Armstrong's case, that wasn't primarily about finding grass and running an unduly high BABIP. It was about getting some unexpected relief via the uncertainty of opponents. Only two batters in the league had more expected runs go unclaimed when opponents failed to challenge incorrect called balls against them than did Crow-Armstrong. Milwaukee's Brice Turang saw opponents miss 42 chances to challenge pitches that should have been called strikes; the Dodgers' Freddie Freeman got away with the same number. Crow-Armstrong, however, got a whopping 45 extra called balls because opposing pitchers and catchers failed to challenge when he took tough pitches that were actually in the zone. Turang's and Freeman's opponent misses were, on average, a little more valuable to them, so Turang got 6.9 runs of value from not having strikes called, while Freeman snuck in at 6.8—just ahead of Crow-Armstrong's 6.7. Only those two got more value from catchers not tapping their helmets; only Carson Benge (48) and Steven Kwan (49) had a larger number of total pitches that should have been called strikes but weren't, on which opponents didn't challenge. Most of the guys who lived in that range with Crow-Armstrong had something in common: extreme patience at the plate. Kwan swung at barely 51% of the pitches he saw even in the zone this year, and chased just under 20% of those outside the zone. Taking so often at the edges creates the conditions for more called balls than the average batter. Benge and Turang swung at around 64% of the in-zone pitches they saw, with fairly low chase rates. Two other hitters near the top of the unconverted overturn leaderboard, James Wood and Geraldo Perdomo, got there because they swung at around 56% of pitches in the zone. As you know, Crow-Armstrong isn't like that. In 2025, he swung at over 81% of the strikes he saw. Even this year, as he made a radical shift toward patience in the box, that number was over 68%, and his lowest monthly mark (in July) was 65.2%. He's aggressive within the zone, which makes finding him at the top of this leaderboard surprising. The only player like him, in that regard, is Freeman, who has made a career out of telling balls from strikes as well as anyone. Every single season, he swings at over 70% of the in-zone pitches he sees, but he keeps his chase rate down. That's earned him some calls over the years, and in the first year of ABS, opponents proved reluctant to challenge him even when that happened. What's surprising is that Crow-Armstrong, whose reputation is as a free swinger and who only moderated (rather than truly upended) that approach in 2026, would land right next to Freeman and a slew of patient hitters. Some of it is good strike-zone judgment, to be sure. Crow-Armstrong did improve on that score this year, though his in-zone swing rate actually dropped a fair bit more than his chase rate did. He understood, right away, that the smaller zone played into his hands. He locked in more on the pitches he wanted to attack, and he laid off more offerings even if he knew there was a chance they would be called strikes, knowing that doing so was necessary in order to fully cover the pitches he could drive. He was also good at pressing for his rights when a call went against him. As we saw in Wild Card Series Game 2, that sometimes showed up as hyperaggressiveness, but Crow-Armstrong left few (just 18) "bad" called strikes as strikes. He came out way ahead, by being proactive and having opponents prove too conservative when calls broke in his favor. That last part isn't a skill, though. Crow-Armstrong owes the value he got from catchers not flipping his incorrect balls into strikes not to his own savvy, but to manager Craig Counsell, and to his teammates. When I listed the other hitters who shared this trait with Crow-Armstrong, did you notice the other common thread between them? They all bat at the top of the order (or very near it). When Crow-Armstrong would come up in the first inning of each game, teams would be naturally conservative with challenges. There's hardly ever cause to risk burning one of your challenges in the first two or three at-bats of a game; you have to be incredibly certain to trigger a review. That meant that if a pitcher got squeezed in Crow-Armstrong's first plate appearance each day, it was likely to go uncorrected. Often, by the time Crow-Armstrong would come up again (especially, say, for the third time), the other team would be down a challenge. Maybe one of their hitters burned one, but Crow-Armstrong's much more patient teammates get part of the credit, too. Michael Busch chased only 25% of the pitches he saw outside the zone this year. Alex Bregman's rate was even lower: 23%. Ian Happ was patient, too. No hitter in baseball prompted more failed ABS challenges by opponents than Busch, at 17. Bregman tied for sixth, at 15. Happ lured opponents into 10 bad challenges. Nico Hoerner got nine (as did Crow-Armstrong). Dansby Swanson got eight. Seiya Suzuki got seven. Hitting at the top of the lineup is a huge advantage in terms of the utility you derive from ABS, especially for an aggressive hitter. It might feel too early to challenge a borderline strike in your first at-bat or two, but you don't take all that many of those, anyway. Meanwhile, your opponents feel the same squeamishness about challenging a called ball your first trips through, and by your third, fourth and fifth turns, they might have to be more careful, because they're already down a challenge. This "gamification" of the zone is a frustrating part of ABS for many fans, but for what it's worth, most sports have some analog of this type of situation. A soccer player on a yellow card has to be more judicious about their tackles. A basketball player in foul trouble has to tread lightly, too. When players or teams are more conservative because they might suffer a steeper penalty for a second "offense"—returning to our actual topic, a failed challenge—it's not really a sign of a poorly designed system. It's just how sports work. However, if might be worth discussing a change whereby, instead of two challenges per team per game, each player only gets the right to lose one. That would force catchers to be more careful, and it would take many hitters (on teams who turned most of the ABS privileges over to their backstops) off the leash a bit. On the other hand, it shouldn't prompt a huge rise in actual challenges, because all players would know they had only one miss available. You'd even see pitchers be allowed to challenge by their clubs, at that point. In the meantime, Crow-Armstrong profited handsomely from his teammates forcing bad challenges in between his turns. Fifteen of the 45 pitches that could have been strikes but weren't corrected came when the opposing team was down to one challenge left, and those didn't all come in the eighth or ninth innings. Sometimes, they came in the fifth, or even the third—stages of the game when, absent the knowledge that they'd already lost their buffer, opponents probably would have begun to feel comfortable challenging him. Not all of the benefits of this phenomenon arrogate to Crow-Armstrong and his fellow leadoff hitters. He enjoyed lots of added value because teams eschewed chances to challenge, but only twice this year did Crow-Armstrong take a called ball in the zone at a juncture where the other team couldn't challenge, because they'd run out. Busch, however, took eight such pitches, because by the time the lineup came back to him a fourth time, that second challenge was often gone. The effects are greatest for leadoff hitters, though. Here's the percentage of takes on pitches inside the zone that were called balls (and not fixed) when the defense had a right to challenge, by batting order position: 7.6% 6.8% 6.5% 6.7% 6.4% 6.5% 6.6% 6.6% 6.4% It's a small consideration, but a real one. It bolstered Crow-Armstrong during his supernal season. The league always adjusts, though. Expect him to be assailed a bit more with challenges next year, even if he maintains exactly the same plate discipline he showed this season. One way or another, he'll feel the sting of regression in this area, because he'll either chase more pitches, get fewer generous calls, or watch more of those lucky calls reversed. This is the nature of being awesome; people will start hunting ways to slow you down. View the full article

The 2023 draft has already led to some big wins for Milwaukee in the 2026 season. The team found its shortstop for the next decade, and they were able to flip two young relievers whom they took that year for help for this year's pennant run. Here’s what should have the competition frightened: The Brewers could have a whole lot more contributions from this draft still to come. After all, it’s only been three years. This draft could end up as one of the more productive ones ever, despite a couple of picks that may or may not have been maximized. Let’s review the results so far: The Big Hit: SS Cooper Pratt Pratt received an eight-year, $50 million contract after three games at Triple-A Nashville, despite the presence of Jesus Made and Luis Pena in the system. He'll be sticking around for a long time at shortstop. Pratt, a sixth-round pick who got big money to enter the Milwaukee organization, not only showed outstanding defense (with a solid set of contact skills, OBP skills, and baserunning ability), but looked very much like a clubhouse leader in the making. The only question is whether he'll develop more power. Could’ve Been (Pitcher): RHP Craig Yoho and LHP Mark Manfredi (tie) Yoho had a rough debut in 2025, but was looking to be a solid contributor for the Brewers in 2026. He never quite clicked, being a square peg despite his electric stuff. The Brewers dealt him and Blake Perkins for catcher Bo Naylor. It remains to be seen whether the return for Yoho will be substantially better than what he could have provided as a late-inning reliever for the Brewers. Manfredi’s what-if isn’t so much about whether the Brewers got quality—Antonio Senzatela has helped their bullpen remain potent and deep down the stretch and into October. It’s the fact that the Brewers will (probably) see Senzatela walk with no compensation, as opposed to having multiple years of Manfredi as a lefty option out of the pen. Could’ve Been (Hitter): 3B/1B Brock Wilken Wilken was looking like a nice find as the team’s first-round pick in the draft, but he’s struggled since returning from multiple facial fractures in 2024. While he draws tons of walks and crushes the ball when he makes contact, he’s also racked up huge strikeout totals. He’s arguably behind Luke Adams as a right-handed corner infield option at the moment—an outcome that would have been almost unthinkable two years ago. Rapid Riser (Hitter): OF/2B Josh Adamczewski Pratt may only be the first of many contributors to emerge from this draft, and he may not even be the biggest steal. Josh Adamczewski’s always been seen as a plus hitter, but he leveled up in 2026 with a move to the outfield. His biggest problem: There are many other outfield prospects in the pipeline, some of whom provide much better defense. It sure looks like his bat will be the highest-floor one in the bunch, though. Rapid Riser (Pitcher): RHP Josh Knoth Knoth reached Double-A Biloxi in 2026, and he’s looking like a contender to be the next great Brewers pitching prospect. Knoth missed 2025, but he more than made up for it with a rapid rise in 2026, and he could be knocking on the door the way Jacob Misiorowski did in 2025. (No, he won't be that level of hurler. But he still has a high ceiling.) Still Percolating (Hitters): UT Mike Boeve and 3B/1B Eric Bitonti The skill of Milwaukee’s scouting department and the success they’ve had in drafting players means that prospect status can be more volatile than a season of Project Runway: One year, a prospect may be in the Brewer Fanatic Top 20, but the next, they’re out, through no fault of their own. Both Boeve and Bitonti are solid prospects by any measure and would be productive assets for the Brewers. But can they push past Blake Burke and Andrew Fischer? It's a tall order. Still Percolating (Pitchers): A Bunch Bishop Letson, Tate Kuehner, Brett Wichrowski, Bjorn Johnson, Ryan Birchard, and Jason Woodward all have shown some serious flashes of talent. This is where the Brewers could become a very scary organization: The Brewers may move some of these pitchers to the bullpen, where they could become dominant factors. The 2023 draft wasn’t so long ago. The Brewers have a lot of good players in that pool who could still contribute to the team. The only question is how they'll do so. View the full article

As he watched the no-longer-hapless Chicago White Sox surge to a 2-0 lead in the ALDS at the Roseville Buffalo Wild Wings earlier this week, lifelong Minnesota Twins fan Mike Martinez came to a startling conclusion: He enjoyed watching them. “I was [redacted] horrified, man. I clapped when they got a key base hit or strikeout. I shouted ‘Hell yeah’ when (Munetaka) Murakami got a hold of one and high-fived the woman sitting next to me. I hate this. I hate myself.” Martinez says he grew up hating the White Sox even more than the Yankees. “Their teams were full of jerks and their fanbase was a collection of vampires and pederasts,” said the 42-year-old IT professional. “I didn’t even like Jim Thome when he was on the White Sox, and everyone likes Jim Thome. Now look at me—cheering for these perverts and horse criminals.” Martinez says everything in his life is fine. He has a good relationship with his parents. He has a steady job, and his spouse just got a promotion at work. Their only child is a straight-A student. Nothing in his life was pointing to this downward turn. “They say you never know what kind of journey someone else is on or what they’re going through,” said Martinez. “I’ve always been skeptical of therapy, but clearly I have some unresolved issues somewhere. I should talk to someone.” If there’s any reason for optimism, Martinez thinks Chicago’s opponent might be a slim reed of hope to grasp onto. “The best case scenario I can think of is that my loathing of the insufferable Cleveland Guardians is causing this aberration. They have an unserious payroll, and they trot out a bunch of anonymous pitchers and win 90 games every year. I hate them very much and want them to lose all their money to internet scams or crooked preachers. But still, I was grinning from ear to ear when the godless and unwanted Chicago White Sox won a playoff game. I don’t expect others to forgive me. I don’t know if I can forgive myself.” Image license here. View the full article

Well, well, well. We meet again. After facing off in last year’s NLCS, the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers will once again go head-to-head with a trip to the World Series on the line. Brewers fans remember all too well how last year’s series went down. The Brewers themselves do, too. Milwaukee will need more than the revenge factor on its side this time around, though. The Dodgers are built for October baseball. They’re looking to become the first team since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees to win three straight World Series titles, and their roster is essentially an All-Star team. This should be an awesome series, with (arguably) the two best teams in Major League Baseball going at it for a second straight year. What should we expect from this series, and what does Milwaukee need to do to knock off the reigning champions? Let’s start with what to expect. Pitching Will Dominate If you thought the NLDS was low-scoring, buckle up. These are the two best pitching staffs in the National League, and last year’s NLCS saw them combine for just 19 runs in four games. Both staffs have gotten even better since then. The Dodgers added Tarik Skubal and Edwin Díaz, among others, while Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson have emerged as legitimate aces for Milwaukee. If you’re into pitcher’s duels, this is the series for you. Neither team should have much trouble finding quality arms to throw at the other, and that could make every offensive opportunity that much more important. A couple of mistakes could be the difference between winning and losing a game, especially if these teams continue to keep scoring to a minimum. The Running Game I also think we’re going to see both teams be aggressive on the basepaths. Coming into this series, the Brewers and Dodgers had very different approaches to stealing bases. Milwaukee was one of the most aggressive teams in baseball in that department, while Los Angeles was among the least so. However, the Dodgers were efficient when they did attempt to steal. In a series that figures to be extremely close, getting runners into scoring position by swiping a bag could create a massive advantage. That should be especially important for Milwaukee, considering the Dodgers haven’t been particularly effective at throwing out opposing runners. According to Statcast, Brewers pitchers were fifth-best in the league this year at holding runners, allowing a net of 21 fewer bases than the average staff. The Dodgers, though allowed 19 more bases to be taken, fourth-worst in the bigs. The Brewers' edge in this department could become an important one. There's No Slug on the Ground So, what does Milwaukee need to do to take down the reigning back-to-back champions? For starters, the Brewers’ pitching staff needs to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. Milwaukee finished the regular season with the third-highest groundout-to-flyout ratio in the league, and that approach will be especially important against a lineup full of some of the best power hitters in the sport. The Dodgers have pop throughout their order, and giving those hitters opportunities to elevate the ball could be a recipe for disaster. As I mentioned earlier, this should be a relatively low-scoring series. One mistake up in the zone could be enough to decide a game, particularly when Los Angeles has so many hitters capable of turning one into a home run. The Brewers need to live down in the zone, generate ground balls, and limit the number of opportunities they give the Dodgers to do damage in the air. Easier said than done, of course, but it will be a key factor in determining whether Milwaukee can advance. Scoring in the Red Zone The Brewers don’t necessarily need to put up huge offensive numbers to win this series. But when they get runners into scoring position, they need to find ways to bring them home. Stringing together timely hits, taking advantage of defensive mistakes, and putting pressure on the Dodgers’ pitching staff could go a long way toward getting Milwaukee over the hump. The running game can be part of this. A well-timed bunt could be involved, too. But the lifeblood of the team is the ability to find grass when the defense is stretched by runners being on base. They couldn't do it consistently against the Padres. Whether it means seeing the ball deeper or sitting on a particular pitch more often with the intention to ambush, Brewers batters have to find ways to attack when a single is likely to equal a run. Hendo and Mis, Then Who Dis? Finally, the back end of the starting rotation needs to step up. Behind Misiorowski and Henderson, Milwaukee’s rotation is a lot more uncertain. Winning the games those two start will be critical, but the Brewers can't expect them to do all the heavy lifting. Guys like Robert Gasser, Dustin May, and even Kyle Harrison or Shane Drohan will need to make meaningful contributions. Gasser delivered a strong start in Game 4 on Wednesday night, while May looked good through the first couple of innings of Game 3. Milwaukee will need more of that from its starters as the series progresses. Their bullpen will play a major role in this matchup, but their impact is severely limited if the Brewers’ starters can't give the team a lead to protect—or at least a tie to maintain. Getting quality outings from the back of the rotation (even if that means only three or four innings at a time) will be vital as the setting of the series switches from Milwaukee to Los Angeles. The Brewers have the pitching talent, speed, and overall roster to make this a competitive series. But beating the Dodgers will require them to execute in the moments that matter most. Milwaukee can't afford to waste opportunities at the plate, give away free bases, or let the Dodgers take advantage of mistakes on the mound. If the Brewers can limit the damage, manufacture runs and get enough out of their rotation beyond their top two starters, they have a legitimate chance to avenge last year’s NLCS loss and claim their first NL pennant. The Dodgers are going to be a difficult opponent to beat. But if Milwaukee can clean up a few of the issues that plagued it last October, there's no reason this team can't find themselves playing for a World Series title. View the full article

The 2026 season was a rough one for the Kansas City Royals. After making the playoffs in 2024 and finishing with an 82-80 record last year, they wrapped up the present campaign with a highly disappointing 69-93 record. The Royals finished 16 games behind the division winners, the Cleveland Guardians. It wasn’t all bad, though. At least, these three things went right for the 2026 Royals: Bobby Witt Jr. Kept Playing At An MVP Level Yordan Alvarez, Junior Caminero, Cam Schlittler, and Pete Alonso are getting most of the headlines in the AL MVP talks. They are all excellent players, so they definitely deserve the praise. However, Bobby Witt Jr.’s contributions seem to be undervalued these days. People take him for granted, and that’s certainly not fair. Witt’s 7.0 fWAR led all those players and the entire American League, finishing second in MLB behind Pete Crow-Armstrong. He offers game-changing impact in all three facets: hitting, fielding, and baserunning. Some might think that his final offensive output, a .281/.359/.441 line with 33 doubles, a triple, 18 round-trippers, 94 runs scored, 45 stolen bases, and a 119 wRC+, was a bit underwhelming, at least compared to previous seasons. That’s when you realize the incredibly lofty standards Witt has set for himself. One of these years, Witt will get the AL MVP Award he already deserves. Carter Jensen Proved He Can Be A Foundational Piece Recently named in MLB Pipeline’s All-Rookie first team, Jensen showed the world that he could be a dominant hitter over the course of a full season. He had posted some impressive numbers in a brief 20-game cameo in 2025, with a .300/.391/.550 line and a 152 wRC+ in 69 trips to the plate. Well, he hit a solid .239/.323/.467 with 27 home runs, 80 runs, 81 RBI, a 116 wRC+, and 3.7 fWAR while splitting time behind the plate and at the DH spot. Oh, he also contributed 35 doubles and two triples, and ranked 15th in the majors with 64 extra-base hits. Not bad for a catcher, huh? Remember, Jensen is still just 23 years old and has a bright future ahead of him. He is already a well-above-average slugger and can get even better, so the Royals have a solid player to build around. Jac Caglianone Started To Scratch His Ceiling After the first two months of the 2026 season, Jac Caglianone was holding his own. He was doing just enough to justify getting relevant playing time, but still nothing special or worthy of his stature and former top prospect status. Then June happened, and something clicked. Caglianone posted a 184 wRC+ that month, with nine home runs and a .309 batting average. It was the start of a special run that also included a 207 wRC+ in August and a 153 mark in the second half overall, slashing a robust .337/.373/.549 with a .922 OPS. Cags is now a league-average hitter against lefties (99 wRC+) and a beast against righties, as his 142 wRC+ indicates. He finished a year full of growing and learning with a .289/.340/.494 line, 23 home runs, and a 129 wRC+. View the full article

The Toronto Blue Jays entered baseball's last great labour war as defending champions. They emerged from it as a franchise whose greatest era was suddenly over. Thirty-two years later, the Blue Jays and their fans are approaching another labour deadline, and the history of 1994 offers a reminder that a work stoppage does not affect every club equally. Sometimes it arrives at exactly the wrong moment. There is a temptation, whenever baseball's owners and players begin drifting toward another labour confrontation, to think about the dispute primarily in league-wide terms. Salary caps. Luxury taxes. Revenue sharing. Free agency. Competitive balance. For the Toronto Blue Jays, there is another way to think about it. Think about timing. Because Toronto has been here before. In August 1994, the Blue Jays were the two-time defending World Series champions. They still possessed Roberto Alomar, Joe Carter, John Olerud, Devon White and much of the identity of the club that had conquered baseball in 1992 and 1993. Then baseball stopped. When it returned in April 1995, Toronto discovered something uncomfortable: a championship window can close. The current MLB collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on December 1, 2026. The two sides remain divided on consequential economic issues, most notably the owners' pursuit of a salary cap, which has encountered strong resistance from the MLB Players Association. Commissioner Rob Manfred has publicly said MLB wants a deal and intends to play in 2027, but reporting around the negotiations has described an owner-imposed lockout after the season as a serious possibility. When a labour dispute collides with a team’s competitive window, there isn’t much that can be done. The Jays weren’t great in 1994. Their record was 55-60 when the players walked out in August 1994. The Jays who returned in 1995 operated under a different general manager, Gord Ash, after Pat Gillick resigned following the 1994 season. Several championship veterans were approaching the end of their Toronto careers. The franchise was simultaneously dealing with ownership changes. The Jays would go on to have six losing seasons between 1995 and 2004. They only had four losing seasons the following 10 years. Today, the Jays are operating at an enormous financial commitment heading into whenever next season will begin. Current public payroll estimates put Toronto's 2026 cash payroll at roughly $275 million to $294 million, depending on methodology, with an estimated competitive balance tax payroll north of $315 million. That spending indicates that Ross Atkins and the front office, along with Rogers, feel like this team is in a competitive window. The league's pursuit of a salary cap is one of the principal fault lines in the current negotiations. MLB presents payroll restraint as part of the solution to competitive balance concerns, while the players view a cap as a mechanism for suppressing labour costs. Toronto is a wealthy organization operating in a major market that has chosen to spend heavily in pursuit of a championship. Under today's rules, ownership can decide how aggressively it is willing to push payroll, accepting progressively heavier competitive balance tax consequences in the process. If a salary cap comes into play, that will most likely change the way organizations build their teams. If owners impose a lockout after the CBA expires, free agent signings and trades involving major league players would cease for the duration, just as they did during the 2021-22 lockout. That creates the possibility of a busy period immediately following the 2026 season. Teams could have a relatively brief window to make decisions before the labour agreement expires, followed by a transaction freeze of unknowable length. All teams, including the Jays, will basically be preparing for two versions of 2027. One under familiar rules and another under rules that have yet to be negotiated. In 1995, Ash inherited a club whose championship past seemed to obscure the cracks in the foundation. The roster was aging, and reinforcements weren’t ready. Instead of rebuilding, Ash decided to test the core. The acquisition of David Cone was effectively a bet that enough championship DNA remained to make another run possible. By July, the standings had delivered their verdict, and Cone was traded to the Yankees. By the following winter, Alomar, White, Paul Molitor and Al Leiter were among the significant players leaving Toronto. The Jays then shifted focus to the future, with players such as Shawn Green, Carlos Delgado and Shannon Stewart. Almost unnoticed amid a brutal 1995 season, the Jays used the 17th overall selection in that year's draft on a high school pitcher named Roy Halladay. The 1994 work stoppage also impacted attendance. Despite the strike-shortened seasons, fans came out. But the combination of labour bitterness and a rapidly deteriorating team changed the relationship between the franchise and its audience. The team went from nearly three million fans (averaging 39,257 per game) to 1.6 million (20,221 per game) in 2002. In 1994, the ultimate consequence was catastrophic for the sport, as the World Series was cancelled. The run of labour peace that followed lasted until owners imposed the 99-day lockout before the 2022 season. The Blue Jays can’t control whether MLB and the MLBPA reach an agreement. They can, however, control how prepared they are for the possibilities. If the current dispute produces only an offseason lockout and baseball starts on time, the interruption may ultimately be remembered much like 2021-22. If it consumes regular season games, however, Toronto will have lost something that cannot be restored through compensatory draft picks or clever accounting. It may lose its window. View the full article

When Derek Falvey took over the Twins' front office 10 years ago, there was a major emphasis on overhauling the team's pitching, from prospect development to MLB talent evaluation and coaching. The Twins had fallen into a dark place, with 90+ losses in five of six seasons. During that span, run prevention was a primary weakness, with their 4.61 ERA ranking as worst in MLB outside of Colorado. Minnesota's strikeout rate ranked 30th out of 30. Falvey was ultimately chosen to succeed Terry Ryan in large part because of his track record for pitching development. This was known be a key focus as soon as he took over. And to some extent, he delivered. The Twins have moved from the bottom to the middle of the pack in key stats like ERA, WAR and K-rate. The 2023 season featured of the best Minnesota staffs in memory, built and cultivated by Falvey and his assistant GM Jeremy Zoll, among others. In the past few seasons, though, it feels like momentum has stalled out. This owes to many factors, injuries included, but the dismissal of Pete Maki as pitching coach points to another issue: failure of the field staff to capitalize on upside and potential recognized by Falvey's front office. I'll give you one example that feels especially relevant right now. On Wednesday night, Trevor Megill closed out Game 4 of the NLDS and sent the Milwaukee Brewers back to the league championship series. It was business as usual for Megill, who has solidified himself as a trusted closer for the 103-win Brew Crew. As you may recall, the Twins had him for a minute. He pitched to a 4.80 ERA in 45 innings for Minnesota back in 2022, and was cut in spring training of 2023 before latching on with Milwaukee, where he almost immediately established himself as a quality reliever. In four years since, Megill has posted a 2.80 ERA and 2.37 FIP with 81 saves across 190 innings. He was an All-Star in 2025. I distinctly remember watching Megill pitch in spring training and marveling at the caliber of his arsenal, and the potential for dominance from his intimidating 6-foot-8 frame. It was obvious why the front office targeted him on a minor-league deal, and having those types of bets pay off is critical to success for a mid-market club. The Twins' coaching staff just couldn't make it work ... though the Brewers wasted little time doing so. A similar story played out around the same time with Jeff Hoffman, another timely case study. He was in camp with the Twins in 2023 on a non-guaranteed deal, and he had some buzz. He was one of the last cuts. But he was a cut, and the rest played to script: he latched on with the Phillies, rapidly emerged as an asset, made an All-Star team, signed a big contract with Toronto, piled up 50 saves, and eventually found his way back to the Twins in exchange for a top pitching prospect. In fairness, the front office deserves its share of blame here. They are the ones that made the call to part ways with Hoffman, who has actually credited Maki with helping him develop his dominant slider. But the Twins had this guy in camp, on the precipice of a breakout, and they were unable to collaboratively conclude that they needed to carry him out of camp and give him a shot. It's representative of the executional disconnect that continually holds the Twins back. They saw the promise. They couldn't unlock it. Someone else quickly did. We've also seen this play out with the likes of Yennier Cano, Brent Headrick and others. Even their developmental success stories have sometimes been overshadowed by the work of other organizations. Take Louis Varland for example. The Twins deserve plenty of credit for turning a Division II pitcher and 15th-round draft pick into a standout MLB reliever, but shortly after going to another team, Varland reached another level entirely. This reminds me of what happened with Ryan Pressly, who progressively turned from a Rule 5 pick into a good relief pitcher before being traded to Houston in 2018 and immediately becoming an elite pitcher. I don't want to suggest the Twins pitching staff has not had any wins upon which to hang their hats over recent years. Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley are commendable examples. Yoendrys Gómez might be on that path. (Ironically, all three came over from the Rays.) There just haven't been enough. And there have been way too many near-misses — especially in the bullpen — that point to a pitching operation that's been on the right track but unable to push across the finish line. And this is what the Twins will hope to resolve with their new hires on the pitching staff. With Zoll leading baseball ops, there's a new boss to interface with and a new dynamic that will hopefully help shake up the stagnance preventing Twins pitching talent from reaching its potential over the past three years. The Twins have spent a decade getting better at finding the right arms. Their next pitching coach needs to make sure that when those arms break through, they're still wearing a Twins uniform. View the full article

Over the first 10 years as a Major League Baseball franchise, the Florida Marlins had just one player win a Gold Glove. He happened to be the first player ever drafted by the club and happened to win three straight for the Fish. On this day 30 years ago, catcher Charles Johnson won his second Gold Glove. The No. 28 overall pick in the 1992 Major League Baseball Draft out of the University of Miami, Johnson didn’t take long to make his presence felt behind the plate. After debuting in 1994, Johnson had become the Marlins’ everyday catcher in 1995 when he won his first Gold Glove at just 25 years old. On Oct. 9, 1996, he was awarded his second following an even better statistical year behind the plate. That season, Johnson led National League catchers with a .995 fielding percentage. He led baseball with 12 double plays turned from his position and fielding runs above replacement. Johnson also ranked third in runners caught stealing and caught stealing percentage. At the plate, Johnson had the worst statistical season of his first stint with the Marlins, but he more than made up for it behind it. That season, the Marlins reached 80 wins for the first time while Kevin Brown and Al Leiter became the first starting pitchers in franchise history to make the All-Star Game. Against the Colorado Rockies on May 11, Johnson caught Leiter’s no-hitter – the first in club history. Johnson won four straight Gold Gloves from 1995 to 1998, although most of the 1998 campaign was spent with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Johnson would return for a second stint in South Florida prior to the 2001 season. In seven total seasons with the Marlins, Johnson was a two-time All-Star. Moving into the future, the Miami Marlins appear set at the catcher position for a long time with Joe Mack behind the dish. For a franchise that has had both Johnson and Iván “Pudge” Rodríguez behind the plate, the bar is certainly high for Mack. As for Johnson, he remains one of just two players ever to win multiple Gold Gloves as a member of the club with second baseman Luis Castillo being the other. Johnson claimed his second in a row on this day three decades ago. View the full article

Forecasting the outcomes of roster battles was a headache at this time a year ago for a Miami Marlins team relying on so many inexperienced and players. Plenty of questions remained about which of them would establish themselves as long-term pieces. After going 80-82, the Marlins improved by one game in 2026. Along the way, Heriberto Hernández and Griffin Conine established themselves as middle-of-the-order power bats. Joe Mack seized control of the catcher position and Otto Lopez took a big step forward. The top half of Miami’s rotation was as lethal as any in baseball for extended stretches. That said, Miami still needs to supplement its core with more established talent, particularly on the pitching side, while continuing to get positive contributions from another wave of prospects. The following projection applies specifically to Opening Day and makes the assumption that it will take place on March 25 as currently scheduled. These are not necessarily the 26 “best” players in the Marlins organization—they are the ones with the easiest path to begin the 2027 season on the active roster. Position Players Default starting lineup: C Joe Mack, 1B Kyle Stowers, 2B Xavier Edwards, 3B Javier Sanoja, SS Otto Lopez, LF Heriberto Hernandez, CF Cam Cannarella, RF Griffin Conine, DH Owen Caissie Bench: C/1B Agustín Ramírez, UTIL Jonathon Long, INF Graham Pauley, OF Esteury Ruiz The Marlins just announced on Thursday that Jakob Marsee is undergoing left elbow surgery, which comes with a recovery time of approximately six months. Unless he recovers far ahead of schedule, he'll open the regular season on the injured list. That opens the door for Cannarella, the reigning Marlins Minor League Player of the Year, to make his MLB debut. Third base was a position that desperately needed an upgrade, but Javier Sanoja seized his opportunity and ran with it. Over his final 65 games of the season, despite not receiving the playing time he deserved because of Miami’s stubborn insistence on playing Leo Jiménez, the WBC champion slashed .315/.354/.511 with eight home runs and 35 RBI. Overall, he accumulated 3.1 bWAR. Bendix implied that Sanoja has done more than enough to earn a starting job in 2027. It’s not unreasonable to think former first-round draft pick Aiva Arquette could emerge as an option at third base in the second half of the season. The Marlins will target a right-handed power bat, which could make Ruiz or Ramirez expendable. Additionally, I expect Miami to look for a veteran catcher to back up Mack. Jonah Heim and Carson Kelly are potential options. Just missed: Deyvison De Los Santos, Jared Serna, Maximo Acosta Pitchers Starting rotation: RHP Sandy Alcantara, RHP Eury Pérez, RHP Max Meyer, RHP Janson Junk, RHP Tyler Phillips Bullpen: RHP Michael Petersen, RHP Ronny Henriquez, RHP Anthony Bender, RHP Josh Ekness, LHP Cade Gibson, RHP Jack Ralston, LHP Dax Fulton, RHP Victor Vodnik Sandy Alcantara put together his best season since his 2022 Cy Young campaign. The longtime ace is expected to have his $21 million club option picked up. With no extension in place, that will be Alcantara’s final season under club control. Max Meyer had his All-Star campaign cut short by a neck strain. He is expected to be ready for spring training. The right-hander posted a 2.68 ERA in a career-high 111 IP. After pitching almost exclusively out of the bullpen for Miami in 2025, Tyler Phillips became a constant in the rotation from late May onward. In 37 appearances, Phillips was worth 2.2 bWAR and posted a 3.34 ERA over a career-high 126 ⅔ innings, nearly 50 more than his previous career high. Thomas White was on pace to debut this season, but he went down early with a shoulder strain. While he is expected to make a full recovery for spring, he is not expected to make the OD roster. Robby Snelling got a very brief taste of the majors before his season was halted after by left elbow surgery. He is expected to return in May/June. Miami’s bullpen will certainly welcome back Ronny Henriquez. Henriquez was by far Miami's most effective reliever in 2025 as he struck out 98 batters in 73 IP, posting a sparkling 2.22 ERA. He was sidelined throughout 2026 following Tommy John surgery. Just missed: Ryan Gusto, Bradley Blaylock, Thomas White, Adam Mazur View the full article

The Minor League Baseball season has been over for some time, and having digested all of the numbers (and a painful Red Sox playoff run), it's time to award the top prospects in the organization. Boston’s best pitchers in the farm system did take quite a hit in 2026; Juan Valera underwent Tommy John surgery in May, and top prospects Anthony Eyanson and Kyson Witherspoon were sent to the Orioles for Adley Rutschman. Those departures gave fans some leeway to look for diamonds in the rough, though, and there are more than a few standouts worthy of placement here. Ranking Red Sox’s Best Minor-League Pitchers of 2026 Honorable Mention: Anthony Eyanson (High-A Greenville/Double-A Portland) Eyanson would easily have been in the #1 spot, but it is only right to rank the players who pitched the entire season for their respective organizations. The Southern California native was sensational this year, especially with Boston’s affiliates, posting a 1.32 ERA across 68 ⅓ innings with Greenville and Portland. Along with his outstanding season, he was named the 2026 Eastern League Pitcher of the Year. The best part of Eyanson's game in college was generating swings and misses; that impressive trait carried over to the minors, where he punched out 94 batters while in the Red Sox organization. #3: Blake Wehunt (Double-A Portland/Triple-A Worcester) The most consistent of the bunch here, Wehunt had a major bounce-back season after a rough 2025 in Double-A. The right-hander allowed just one fewer run than last year, but this season he logged 37 more frames, ending 2026 with a 3.50 ERA and 104 strikeouts over 100.1 innings. The former ninth-rounder uses his gigantic 6’7” frame very well, creating a massive amount of extension, 6.8 feet off the rubber, in the 88th percentile for Triple-A pitchers. Wehunt’s specialty this season was filling up the strike zone; he might not strike out many batters, but he trusts his defense behind him to make plays. His 49.3% and 51.9% strike-zone percentages across Portland and Worcester, respectively, were the key to his success. Drafted back in 2023, Wehunt made his organizational debut that same year, throwing only one inning. He looked solid in 2024, making 22 starts with a 3.88 ERA—however, he struggled to work deep into games, registering only a single quality start. He has made tremendous strides since then, completing five quality starts this season. #2: Hayden Mullins (Double-A Portland/Triple-A Worcester) Drafted in the 12th round of the 2022 draft, Mullins is a very interesting pitcher. Throughout his career, he has always generated a large number of strikeouts. His windup creates massive deception, rotating his body in a way that hides the ball behind him, then delivering the pitch with a low release point. The 26-year-old southpaw struggled immensely in June and July before getting extremely hot in the final two months. Through his six starts in August and September, Mullins pitched at least five innings five times, struck out at least eight batters four times, and gave up just one earned run or fewer each time out. That's straight dominance and a perfect way to build momentum ahead of the offseason. Similar to 2025, Mullins struck out batters at an elite rate this season; his 135 strikeouts ranked fifth in the Eastern League. Naturally, a 12.70 K/9 and 33% strikeout rate were both career highs for the lefty. #1: Dylan Brown (Low-A Salem/High-A Greenville) In his first professional season in Boston’s organization, Brown undoubtedly sealed the Red Sox MiLB Pitcher of the Year award. The Old Dominion product led all of the org's minor-league affiliates with 143 strikeouts through 106.2 innings. As a 6’5” left-hander, Brown is not known for lighting up radar guns, averaging just 92 MPH with his fastball, but a blend of deception and command is his bread and butter. Brown’s mechanics are a bit generic, however, his arm slot and the spot on the mound where his plant foot lands make it hard for batters to read the ball out of his hand. His metrics show he has been elite in every category except for contact allowed inside the zone, but that does not matter as long as batters punch out and make weak contact. The 2025 eighth-round pick had some ups and downs, but he dominated overall, posting a 3.46 ERA over 106.2 innings and an extremely impressive 3.86 K/BB ratio. Dylan looks to carry this exceptional season into 2027, where he could emerge as the next in a long line of top Red Sox pitching prospects. View the full article

They say money can’t buy you happiness, love, friends, and, apparently, pennants. Outside of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are back in the NLCS for the third consecutive season, the league’s most expensive teams either failed to make the postseason or have been eliminated prior to the championship series. Team Total Payroll Allocations Wins Cost per Win NYM $346,736,805 74 $4,685,633 LAD $339,319,244 100 $3,393,192 NYY $308,336,780 93 $3,315,449 PHI $291,951,676 88 $3,317,633 TOR $276,130,678 79 $3,495,325 ATL $263,462,438 94 $2,802,792 CHC $249,319,956 89 $2,801,348 HOU $239,763,783 81 $2,960,047 SD $226,252,714 91 $2,486,294 BOS $207,988,016 87 $2,390,667 DET $202,081,991 76 $2,658,974 ARI $192,670,027 86 $2,240,349 TEX $191,262,798 80 $2,390,785 SF $190,174,131 65 $2,925,756 LAA $182,509,023 62 $2,943,694 SEA $169,556,014 76 $2,231,000 BAL $167,039,211 79 $2,114,420 KC $150,429,892 69 $2,180,143 MIL $146,206,320 103 $1,419,479 CIN $128,223,748 75 $1,709,650 COL $121,526,750 58 $2,095,289 MIN $115,748,036 77 $1,503,221 PIT $106,728,501 82 $1,301,567 CHW $103,330,141 84 $1,230,121 WSH $101,639,888 77 $1,319,999 ATH $98,948,812 64 $1,546,075 STL $96,396,498 77 $1,251,903 TB $95,615,469 98 $975,668 MIA $83,298,123 80 $1,041,227 CLE $74,459,014 85 $875,988 While this isn’t the topic of this article, just know that if the owners lock the players out for a salary cap, it isn’t about competitive balance. The linear correlation between total payroll and wins in 2026 was 0.299, which is very weak. Now, none of this has stopped people from trolling the Mets, who, for the low, low price of $346 million, won 74 games. Their $4.685 million per win was by far the highest in the league, and the supposed culprits of this extreme inefficiency were none other than Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor. When a team this expensive fails this spectacularly, it’s easy to blame the highest earners, but that’s not exactly what went wrong with the 2026 Mets. That being said, Lindor and Soto aren’t blameless; the pair earned a combined $95.975 million and produced a measly 5.5 fWAR. However, that had far more to do with injury. If Soto and Lindor had hit 158 games played, instead of 111 and 105 respectively, they would have combined for 7.72 fWAR if they had played at their seasonal fWAR pace. When you throw Bo Bichette in the mix, who earned $42 million and produced 1.9 fWAR, things do get worse. All told, the Mets’ three highest earners took home $137.975 million in salary and produced 7.2 fWAR. Player Salary WAR G PA WAR/158G WAR/600PA WAR-Blend Juan Soto $61,875,000 3.1 111 482 4.41 3.86 4.14 Bo Bichette $42,000,000 1.9 160 696 1.88 1.64 1.76 Francisco Lindor $34,100,000 2.2 105 469 3.31 2.81 3.06 Totals $137,975,000 7.2 376 1647 9.60 8.31 8.96 Stars need to be stars, and the Mets’ three position-player stars fell short because of injury in Lindor and Soto’s case and underperformance in Bichette’s. But that’s not why the Mets won 74 games despite a $350 million payroll. What doomed the Mets was that their middle class of earners absolutely stunk. The Mets had six players who earned between $10 million and $20 million, for a total of $116.112 million in salary. That half-dozen cohort combined to produce an unfathomable -0.2 fWAR. Player Salary WAR Marcus Semien $26,000,000 -0.5 Sean Manaea $25,000,000 1.0 Luis Robert Jr. $17,112,299 0.5 Devin Williams $17,000,000 0.8 Jorge Polanco $17,000,000 -1.4 Kodai Senga $14,000,000 -0.6 Total $116,112,299 -0.2 Obviously, Jorge Polanco’s -1.4 fWAR looms large, but when Sean Manaea’s 1.0 fWAR leads the pack, this level of putridness is still a group effort. While the Mets’ three highest earners have received the most criticism, their average of $19.163 million per fWAR looks like a downright bargain compared to these laggards. If the Mets’ middle earners had produced at that allegedly reprehensible pace, they would have combined for an fWAR of 6.06. To put in perspective how much damage the dismal half-dozen caused, the Mets spent $32.68 million on players who didn’t play for them. Somehow, some way, that money led to more fWAR. If you combine that dead money with their vengeful zombie money, the Mets spent $148.8 million for -0.2 fWAR. Now, nothing we've discussed has been an efficient use of dollars, but it's clear that the Mets’ season didn’t end in disaster solely because Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor stunk. The main reason the Mets fell short of their financial expenditures is that their middle class collapsed, and their stars weren’t bright enough to offset it. On the bright-ish side, the Mets’ lower earners were actually relatively productive. Among players who earned between $1 million and $9.9 million, that group of 13 produced 10.6 fWAR for a total cost of $53.4 million. And the 21 players who took home less than $1 million racked up 13.8 fWAR for $13.5 million. Now, the pre-arbitration and arbitration system is specifically designed to churn out value production—hence the complete farce that a salary cap has much to do about competitive balance—but the Mets did solidly here, which portends a brighter future. Nolan McLean, Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing, and Christian Scott, who accounted for 11.9 of their sub-million 13.8 fWAR, won’t be cheap forever, but they will be cheap for the next three to four seasons. With continued growth, a bounce back from their stars, and hopefully a rebuilt middle class, the Mets can put their financial resources to good use, instead of burning a mountain of cash like they're the Joker in The Dark Knight. View the full article

Next month, as the offseason ramps up (before, in all likelihood, ramping right back down at the end of November), the Cubs will have to make a large number of decisions in a short time. We've already talked about their decision points on qualifying offers and on their existing contract options. Now, let's weigh their choices with regard to each of the 11 players who enter the offseason as arbitration-eligible, making their salaries uncertain (but relatively predictable) for 2027. The best approach here is probably to sort everyone into buckets. There are three things you can do (barring a trade) with a player due for a raise via arbitration in the forthcoming season: non-tender them (making them a free agent), tender them a contract (pushing down the path toward a one-year deal), or extend them (locking in their salary for multiple seasons, to gain cost certainty and/or longer team control). The team has at least one candidate for each of these paths this fall. Cubs Non-Tender Candidates Two players are almost no-brainer non-tenders for the Cubs. They picked up Gabriel Arias as emergency infield depth after Dansby Swanson strained his oblique in August, but that made them just the latest franchise to which Arias has bounced via waivers. He's been so available because he's been unproductive, and has now exhausted his minor-league options. He's a bench player on any team with serious aspirations to contend, and though he plays good enough defense all the way around the infield, he's never found a way to turn good bat speed into consistent pop, and his approach is ragged. He's in line to make roughly $1.3 million in 2027 if tendered a contract, according to MLB Trade Rumors's projections. That's not much, but 'not much' is also what he's worth. He can't be sent to the minors without being exposed to the other 29 teams. It's not worth using a roster spot on him all winter. Almost all of that also applies to Ethan Roberts, even though Roberts (unlike Arias) has been part of the Cubs organization for years. He's never showed the ability to stay healthy or to get many outs even when he is, and he's now out of options. His ability to spin the ball and create glove-side movement has bought him time with the Cubs, who love that profile. MLB Trade Rumors only projects him to earn $800,000 via arbitration, so he's essentially a league-minimum guy, even as he hits the phase of his career at which he's supposed to start gaining earning power. In theory, as with Arias, there are three years of team control left here. Roberts just isn't good, though, and if he can't be shuttled to the minors when needed, he's not worth keeping around. Easy One-Year Sign-Ups Most arbitration-eligible players don't inspire particularly interesting action. You just tender them a deal, agree on terms, and move on. That's what the Cubs will hope to do with the majority of their class this year. Michael Busch and Miguel Amaya are arbitration-eligible for the first time this year. Each is older than your average player with just three-plus years of service time, so the team doesn't stand to gain great value from considering a longer-term arrangement with either of them. Nor did either have a good enough year to merit that kind of heavy investment. Each easily clears the bar for keeping them around, though, given the affordable salaries ($1.7 million for Amaya; $5.4 million for Busch) MLBTR projects for each. (For what it's worth, I think Busch will come in under that number, one way or another.) The same is all true, in fact, of reliever Ryan Rolison, whom MLBTR thinks will earn $1.1 million in his first trip through arbitration. Keeping those three requires no difficult decision; the front office will gladly pay what each is likely to get via the system they're moving through. None of the three firmed up long-term jobs with the team this season, but all three did enough to ensure that they'll be asked back in 2027. Pitchers to Roll the Dice On Four inexpensive pitchers who still have multiple seasons of club control left are candidates for very low-wattage multi-year deals, if the team is particularly excited about any of their futures. Daniel Palencia and Ben Brown will both qualify for arbitration as Super Two players, meaning they can begin to get raises despite being just shy of three years of service. They're under team control through 2030, but they'll start getting seven-figure salaries (albeit just barely: $1.2 million for Palencia, $1.3 million for Brown, according to MLBTR) in 2027. The upside on both hurlers is obvious. Brown has flashed the ability to pitch at the front end of the team's rotation. There are major injury red flags in his file, but if the Cubs want to avoid seeing his salary spike as he moves through arbitration (should he get past the neck issue that has plagued him the last two years), they might seek an extension with him. These tend to be just two-year pacts, with the second year often being a club option. They're just ways, again, to keep arbitration costs down. Those can escalate quickly, especially for guys who achieve Super Two status and go through it four times, rather than three. Much of the same applies to Palencia. There's a bit less cause for deep concern about his health than with Brown, but the ceiling is also lower, since he's purely a reliever. On the other hand, closers' salaries rise disproportionately via arbitration, because that system still rewards the accumulation of saves. If the Cubs view Palencia as a closer candidate again in 2027, they would do well to lock him up for two or three years (at a cheap price, with an option in the mix) and eschew multiple trips through arbitration. In so doing, they'd give Palencia more guaranteed money than signing him for one year would require, but get their value from cost certainty and a flatter increase in his salary from 2027 to the subsequent years than is otherwise likely. Javier Assad signed a deal like this last offseason. He made $1.8 million in 2026, as a Super Two guy in his own right, but the Cubs also got a $3.3-million option for 2027 in the deal. Since MLBTR is projecting just $2.3 million in earnings for him in 2027, Chicago will probably decline that option, but they might re-up with Assad on another deal that gives him some guaranteed money and preserves their upside by capping what he can earn in 2028. Assad can still be optioned to the minors next year, and might actually spend part of the year in Iowa yet again, if the team is sufficiently aggressive over the winter. Either way, though, he'll be valuable depth, and adding a second year to a deal with him makes sense. In the least-heralded trade they made on deadline day, the team also snagged lefty starter Braxton Garrett, from Miami. Garrett still has two more years of team control remaining, though he used his last minor-league option this year. Next season, he'll be roster-locked, but the Cubs like him, so they're very likely to at least tender him a contract. He's only set to make $1.6 million in 2027, but since he'll have to be on the big-league roster all season, his salary could shoot up quite a bit in his final year of eligibility in 2028. To dodge that risk, the team could look to sign him to a two-year deal. Unfortunately, they didn't gain enough information about him down the stretch to consider a longer-term deal that actually extends their team control. The Very Uncomfortable Calls There's no realistic chance that the Cubs non-tender Edward Cabrera, and almost none that they do so with Justin Steele. After trading a top prospect to acquire Cabrera over the winter, they're invested in him, and he still has two seasons of club control left. Steele, a beloved part of the organization for over 12 years, only has one year of club control left, but parting with him before using it would be painful for all parties. That said, Cabrera's 2026 campaign was a nightmare, and the reclamation project the team will have to accomplish to get value from him next year is daunting. He's set to make $4.8 million or so via arbitration, by MLBTR's reckoning, so it won't be a cheap remodel, either. To make their predicament a bit less painful, the team might try to strike a two-year deal with Cabrera, capping what he can earn in his final year of arbitration eligibility in 2028. There's no way they can commit to him long-term, but they also can't cut the cord on one of the few arms in their organization who has good enough raw stuff to consistently get out big-league hitters. They'll just have to hope they can get him to actually do so next season. Steele is a different case. Given the setbacks that prevented him from getting back to the big leagues the year after his April 2025 Tommy John surgery, his $6.8-million projected salary is like a baby albatross. His stuff didn't look good at all in his late-season rehab starts for Triple-A Iowa. He's not guaranteed to be a big-league-caliber starter in 2027, let alone one a team can confidently pay almost $7 million. The path forward for player and team is most likely to involve a multi-year deal. Steele can give up some earning power for 2027 by agreeing to a lower salary (maybe $5 million or so; maybe less), while preserving a high ceiling via incentives. Meanwhile, the Cubs would either guarantee a second year or offer Steele a club option for 2028 at a high salary, with a substantial buyout. If structured correctly, a deal whereby Steele could earn even more than his projected salary next year and then become a free agent could still be favorable to the Cubs. They can't afford to just hand him the same amount he made in 2026, though, knowing there's at least some chance that he becomes dead money again. This arbitration class isn't especially expensive. That's good news, in a way, for a team with hefty obligations to multiple veteran position players and a desperate need to add pitching via free agency and/or trade. In a much more important sense, though, it's very bad news. The Cubs would be happy to be paying $10-15 million more to this group than they'll end up paying. That would mean that Brown, Steele and/or Palencia stayed healthy; that Busch built upon his breakout 2025; and that Amaya and/or Cabrera took the steps forward the team hoped for from them. Instead, they'll get a good deal on several of these players for 2027, but only because almost all of them underachieved. View the full article

For four games, they had to grind and gut it out, but the Milwaukee Brewers are heading to the NLCS for a second straight year. While there were plenty of big moments throughout the series, left-hander Aaron Ashby deserves particular praise for the role he played in getting Milwaukee past the San Diego Padres. Ashby had a terrific regular season, posting a 3.12 ERA with 116 strikeouts over 89 1/3 innings. That impressive performance carried over to the NLDS, where you could argue no single Brewer had a bigger impact on the series than he did. Let’s go back to Game 1 on Saturday. The game was tied 2-2 in the top of the fifth, when Antonio Senzatela entered in relief of Jacob Misiorowski and quickly allowed some traffic on the bases. With left-handed hitter Jackson Merrill coming to the plate, Pat Murphy decided to call upon Ashby earlier than he normally would. The southpaw delivered. He retired Merrill to end the scoring threat, then got the next four Padres he faced before Murphy turned to Abner Uribe in the seventh. It was an impressive stretch in a tight game, and it gave Milwaukee exactly what they needed, in a situation where one mistake could have changed the complexion of the series. Ashby wasn’t finished making an impact. Fast-forward not even 24 hours, and the left-hander was back on the mound in the eighth inning of Game 2, with Milwaukee trailing by a run. Merrill greeted him with a ground-ball single, and Samad Taylor followed with a bunt single to put two runners on with nobody out. Suddenly, San Diego had an opportunity to break the game open and put itself in a commanding position in the series. Instead, Ashby did what good relievers do: he found a way to get himself out of trouble. Xander Bogaerts worked the count full, forcing Ashby to dig deep with two runners aboard. The Brewers' left-hander responded by reaching back for a triple-digit sinker on the inner third of the plate, freezing Bogaerts for out number one. He then got Freddy Fermin to ground into an inning-ending double play, escaping the jam without allowing a run. That sequence turned out to be a massive moment in the series, considering what later transpired in Game 2 courtesy of Jackson Chourio. Milwaukee came away with a dramatic win, and Ashby's ability to keep San Diego from adding to their lead held the door open for the Brewers' late rally. Had he failed to escape that inning, the entire series could have unfolded differently. Instead, Ashby kept the deficit manageable and gave his teammates a chance to make something happen. He didn't pitch at all in Game 3, but he sure did in Game 4. After Robert Gasser gave the Crew four solid innings, Ashby was the first man out of the bullpen, with the Brewers looking to protect their one-run lead. He struck out Taylor, before getting Fernando Tatis Jr. and Merrill to ground out, needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. With the heart of San Diego's order coming up in the sixth, Ashby was clearly staying in the game. Manny Machado grounded out to start the inning. Ty France drew a walk, but Ashby responded by getting the very next batter to ground into an inning-ending double play, putting another zero on the board. At this point, Ashby had already worked beyond 20 pitches through two innings, and Murphy hadn't asked any of his relievers to go deeper than that throughout the series. But the left-hander wasn't done. He returned for the seventh and worked around a two-out walk, striking out two more Padres to finish another scoreless inning. It was the first time all season that he had thrown three innings in an appearance, and it was the only time in the NLDS that a Brewers reliever recorded more than five outs in a single outing. Ashby recorded nine. In a series wherein Milwaukee's bullpen was asked to navigate some difficult situations, that length was incredibly valuable. He didn't just get a couple of important outs or bridge the gap to the back end of the bullpen. He gave Murphy three full innings of effective work, keeping San Diego off the board while taking pressure off the rest of the relief corps. If there were an MVP of this series, I think it's Ashby. The NLDS could have looked drastically different without his clutch performances, and what makes his work even more impressive is that he delivered in three very different situations. He entered a tie game fairly early in Game 1; escaped a dangerous jam while trailing in Game 2; and gave Milwaukee three strong innings in a series-clinching Game 4. Those aren't easy circumstances for any reliever, and Ashby handled each of them about as well as Milwaukee could have hoped. By Championship Win Probability Added, Chourio (6.1%) has Ashby (4.9%) beat in this series, but that's purely because Chourio came through in one moment. According to Baseball Reference's Championship Leverage Index, Chourio's at-bat against Mason Miller in Game 2 was 171 times as important as the average plate appearance, in terms of its impact on the chances that the Brewers would win the World Series. Ashby didn't have any showdown so pivotal. However, he faced 19 batters in plate appearances with a Championship LI ranging from 10 to 41, and the Padres went 2-for-17 with two walks in those spots. What's also becoming increasingly clear is the level of extreme trust that Murphy has in Ashby. Whether the Brewers need a key out against a left-handed hitter, someone to escape a late-inning jam, or a reliever capable of covering multiple innings, Ashby has shown he can handle the assignment. With the Los Angeles Dodgers waiting in the NLCS, Milwaukee will need more of that. The Brewers face a much different challenge against Los Angeles, and their bullpen will once again be a major part of the equation. Ashby's regular-season numbers were impressive, and his NLDS performance only reinforced his value. If Milwaukee is going to keep this postseason run alive, he'll have to keep up one of the great reliever seasons in the history of a team who's had more than their share of good ones. View the full article

Kaelen Culpepper's first taste of the big leagues provided plenty for Twins fans to evaluate. The 2024 first-round pick spent most of the season at Triple-A before making his MLB debut, and while his time in Minnesota was limited to 33 games, he showed several tools that could make him an important part of the organization's future. Culpepper's debut was not perfect. There were some obvious holes in his offensive game, particularly against breaking pitches, but there were also signs that his physical tools can translate to the highest level. Here are three things that stood out in a positive way—and three areas Culpepper will need to improve. Up 1: Legit Arm Strength Culpepper's arm strength was touted dating back to his college days, but Twins fans got to see that tool on full display this season. He posted an 88.5-MPH average arm strength, placing him in the 77th percentile among MLB infielders. That's an important tool for a player who could potentially move around the infield during his career, but its significance is particularly obvious while he's playing the most demanding spot on the dirt. If Culpepper eventually has to move to third base, his arm could help make that transition much easier. Shortstop is still the most natural fit for him, but having legitimate arm strength gives the Twins additional flexibility as they determine where he fits best long term. Up 2: Bat Speed Culpepper's bat speed was another tool that immediately stood out during his debut. He averaged 73.7 MPH of bat speed, a figure that would have ranked in the top 30% of big-leaguers had he accumulated enough plate appearances to qualify. That's an encouraging sign for a young hitter who was not afraid to attack pitches during his first exposure to big-league pitching. Culpepper's aggressive approach can lead to some swing-and-miss, but the underlying bat speed gives him the ability to do damage when he squares up a pitch. The next step will be turning that raw bat speed into more consistent quality contact. Up 3: Baserunning The Twins need more athleticism throughout their roster, and Culpepper is part of a young wave of players who can provide it. Even with only 33 games under his belt, Culpepper produced a positive Baserunning Run Value. That came despite having a 60th-percentile sprint speed, showing that effective baserunning isn't simply about having elite straight-line speed. Good instincts and aggressiveness can create value on the bases. Culpepper showed signs of doing that during his brief stint in the majors. Down 1: Hard-Hit Percentage Culpepper's aggressive swing can produce hard contact, but his Triple-A performance did not carry over completely to the majors. At Triple-A, he posted a 45.5% Hard-Hit rate. That number dropped to 31.1% during his big-league debut. Had he qualified, that figure would have fallen below the league average. There's plenty of reason to believe the number can improve. Culpepper has the bat speed and physical strength to hit the ball hard. The challenge will be making more consistent contact against top-level pitching, while maintaining the aggression that makes his swing dangerous. Down 2: Walk Rate Culpepper showed a much better ability to draw walks in the minors than he did against pitchers who could throw strikes at a big-league rate. He posted an 11.4% walk rate at Triple-A this season. That number nearly disappeared in Minnesota, where he walked only six times in 128 plate appearances for a 4.7% walk rate. Culpepper is never likely to be a hitter who piles up walks, and the Twins don't need him to become one. However, he needs to find a middle ground between being aggressive and expanding the strike zone. A higher walk rate would give him more opportunities to utilize his speed and athleticism, while also offsetting some of the swing-and-miss that comes with his aggressive approach. Down 3: Breaking Down Breaking pitches were one of the biggest trouble spots for Culpepper during his debut. He did not record an extra-base hit against breaking pitches and posted a .223 expected batting average and .274 expected slugging percentage against them. Those numbers point to an area that opposing pitchers are likely to continue attacking until Culpepper proves he can handle it. Adjusting to breaking stuff is one of the biggest challenges young hitters face when they reach the majors. Culpepper's bat speed gives him a foundation to make that adjustment, but recognizing spin and staying disciplined against breaking pitches will be critical to his development. The Bigger Picture The most important part of Culpepper's 2026 season may be that he got his first extended look at what major-league pitching is going to throw at him. Now, the Twins will get to see how he responds. The physical tools are evident. His arm strength can play at multiple infield positions, his bat speed gives him offensive upside, and his athleticism can add another dimension to the Twins' lineup. The next step is turning those tools into consistent production. What stands out most about Culpepper's debut season? Should the Twins be comfortable with him being the Opening Day shortstop? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

0:00 Gleeman & The Geek: Twins Diamond Awards, 2027 payroll, and over/under results 2:51 Twins Diamond Awards with no ceremony and no TwinsFest during the lockout 4:24 Most Valuable Twin: Aaron's vote for Taj Bradley 9:10 Cody Clemens wins Twins team MVP 14:14 Twins Pitcher of the Year: Taj Bradley 14:41 Most Improved Twin: Brooks Lee 16:09 Twins Rookie of the Year: Connor Prielipp 17:49 Defensive Player of the Year: Byron Buxton over ... Ryan Kreidler? 20:25 Byron Buxton wins the Twins leadership award 20:53 Louie Varland wins Upper Midwest Player of the Year after the Twins traded him 22:21 Media Good Guy: Ryan Jeffers three-peats 26:36 Twins minor league awards: Walker Jenkins and Adrian Bohorquez 27:22 The case for Marek Houston as minor league player of the year 33:56 Twins 2027 payroll: what $100 million actually buys 38:29 Why matching the 2023 Twins payroll now means $175 million or more 40:33 No winter meetings: how the lockout reshapes the MLB offseason 41:39 2027 MLB free agent class: Tarik Skubal and a lot of Josh Bell types 44:32 Ryan Jeffers and the qualifying offer 46:37 Replacing Jeffers: a thin catcher market and the Victor Caratini problem 51:09 What happens with Alex Jackson 56:59 MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projections 58:52 Tender now, trade later? The Trevor Larnach decision 1:04:31 Charlie Walters reports a Twins sale to Varde Partners is heating up 1:12:30 What private equity ownership could mean for the Twins 1:18:47 Spring training over/under review: Aaron's prediction slump 1:21:46 Why 10 of 15 American League teams finished under their Vegas win totals 1:23:21 AL East over/unders: Tampa Bay Rays win 98 games 1:25:18 Baltimore Orioles disappoint despite Pete Alonso's 40 homers 1:26:48 Boston Red Sox: Aaron gets one right 1:28:03 Toronto Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s nine-homer season 1:30:00 New York Yankees win 93 games 1:31:28 AL West over/unders: all five teams go under, starting with the Angels 1:32:00 The Athletics' injury-wrecked season 1:33:15 Texas Rangers fall short 1:34:21 Houston Astros' front office decline 1:36:47 Seattle Mariners and Cal Raleigh's collapse 1:37:30 Aaron's George Costanza plan: pick the opposite 1:39:55 AL Central over/unders: Chicago White Sox make the playoffs 1:41:45 Twins over/under: Aaron takes the over and wins 1:44:38 Cleveland Guardians win the AL Central 1:45:42 Kansas City Royals sink to 69 wins 1:46:26 Detroit Tigers sell and fade 1:47:56 Final tally over/under tally. 1:50:37 Wrap-up and offseason schedule You can listen by downloading us from: iTunes, Spotify, YouTube, iHeartRadio, Stitcher, GleemanAndTheGeek.com, or by clicking this link, or by watching/listening below. View the full article

When I wrote about the Blue Jays' arbitration-eligible players last offseason, I sorted them into categories based on the likelihood of each of them being tendered a contract. This year, I would be at least mildly surprised if the Blue Jays non-tendered any of the arb-eligible players on their roster. So, instead of using discrete categories, I've listed this group of eight in order of how long I think the front office will spend considering their merits and shortcomings before deciding to keep them around. Some of them will warrant a real conversation, while others are complete no-brainers. Salary projections are from MLB Trade Rumors unless otherwise stated. Josh Smith (Arb 2) - Projected Salary: $3.7 million Josh Smith was hot for his first few weeks in Toronto, but he fell back down to earth and finished his season with some pretty atrocious offensive numbers (.203 BA, .611 OPS, 75 wRC+). He's a versatile defender, but his glove isn't good enough to warrant a $3.7 million salary if he's going to keep hitting like that. However, Smith was much more productive in 2024 and '25 (.254 BA, .716 OPS, 107 wRC+). The hope that he can return to that level of performance is what's going to convince the Jays to tender him a contract. Davis Schneider (Arb 1) - Projected Salary: $1.3 million Davis Schneider had a rough year in 2026. The fact that he spent so much of it with Triple-A Buffalo – where he was clearly too good for the competition – makes me think the Jays didn't have a ton of faith that he could turn things around. Still, Schneider has two things working in his favor. One: He remains a fan favourite, even if he's starting to lose his shine. Two: He has another option year left. The Blue Jays learned a lot of lessons about the importance of depth this past season. Schneider won't be guaranteed a spot on the Opening Day roster, but spending a little extra dough to keep him around as insurance is worth it. Meanwhile, cutting him would only further alienate a fan base that's already unhappy. Bowden Francis (Arb 1) - Projected Salary: $1.3 million Just Baseball put out their own arbitration estimates this year, and this was the one case where the difference between their number and MLBTR's number felt notable. Just Baseball projected a $925,000 salary for Bowden Francis, which is about 30% lower than MLBTR's $1.3 million projection. Either way, I think Francis is worth keeping around – he is optionable starting pitching depth with upside – but the Jays will hem and haw a little longer if they think it will take more than a million to retain him. Spencer Arrighetti (Arb 1) - Projected Salary: $1.9 million The Blue Jays traded for Spencer Arrighetti because they needed innings ASAP. At the same time, they knew he was going to be a long-term project. So, despite his struggles in a handful of August and September outings, I don't see the Jays giving up on him this quickly. Besides, even if he doesn't have a higher ceiling to reach, a sub-$2 million price tag for an optionable innings eater with MLB experience is worth it for a team with pockets as deep as Toronto's. Ernie Clement (Arb 2) - Projected Salary: $7.6 million Ernie Clement disappeared in the second half of 2026. Through the All-Star break, Clement was batting .296 with a 109 wRC+. He was the AL's starting second baseman in the All-Star Game (and the AL's top vote-getter!), and that will increase the amount he can expect to receive in arbitration. Yet, post-ASG, Clement hit just .203 with a dismal 36 wRC+. Combine that with his surprisingly poor defensive metrics in his first full season at second, and a non-tender candidate almost starts to emerge. Indeed, if you only looked at the numbers without further context, you might question whether the Jays would want to retain Clement for this much money. He ranked among the 10 worst qualified hitters in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ this past season. His xwOBA was dead last. He produced -2 DRS and a -1 FRV at second base. The thing is, we're also talking about a player who is only one year removed from posting 3.2 fWAR and 4.3 bWAR in 2025. He is the all-time record holder for hits in a single postseason. And perhaps most importantly, he is utterly beloved by the Blue Jays fan base. The worst-case scenario if they tender him a contract is that the Jays have a slightly overpaid utility player on their roster. The worst-case scenario if they let him go is so much worse. Nathan Lukes (Arb 1) - Projected Salary: $2.1 million In an ideal world, Nathan Lukes plays a little less often than the Jays have asked him to over the last two seasons. Even so, a salary around $2 million is a bargain for a great defensive right fielder who can hold down the heavier half of a platoon. I would keep Lukes around for $2.1 million even if he were just a fourth/fifth outfielder off the bench – and he is significantly more than that. José Soriano (Arb 2) - Projected Salary: $5.6 million José Soriano's first 10 starts with Toronto weren't as successful as either party hoped for, but the Blue Jays didn't trade Arjun Nimmala for 10 starts. Soriano should be a key member of the rotation for the next two seasons. Considering his 3.90 ERA and 7.3 fWAR in just over 500 career innings, a $5.6 million salary is far, far less than Soriano would command on the open market. Louis Varland (Arb 1) - Projected Salary: $3.8 million There is absolutely no question the Blue Jays will tender Louis Varland a contract. I am curious, however, how much money he'll actually end up making. MLBTR's $3.8 million projection would be a nice chunk of change – it's the highest projected salary for any player with less than three years of service time – but I wonder if Varland will seek significantly more. In the 21st century, only two pitchers have thrown more relief innings in a season with a lower ERA: Eric Gagné in 2003 and Blake Treinen in 2018. Gagné sought an $8 million salary in his first year of arbitration eligibility the following winter. The Dodgers countered with $5 million – and won – but still, that was a massive raise, especially in 2004. Treinen was entering his second year of arbitration eligibility, and he sought $6.4 million. He won, setting a new record for the highest second-year raise for an arb-eligible reliever. Varland's case isn't quite the same as either Gagné's or Treinen's. Gagné won the Cy Young. Treinen had a sub-1.00 ERA. But Varland could have something working in his favour that neither Gagné nor Treinen had: the first-ever BBWAA Relief Pitcher of the Year Award. As Tarik Skubal proved last winter, if you ask for an unprecedented salary in arbitration, you might get it. So, will Varland ask for a number that better reflects his talent? View the full article

Prior to 2026, the San Diego Padres, as a franchise, had never made the postseason in three consecutive seasons. There's something to be said for an accomplishment like that. They've also reached it in five of the past seven seasons. In general, they're one of the premier teams in the National League considering their ability to consistently reach October baseball. At the same time, that'll hardly provide solace in what feels like the most disappointing elimination to date. The Padres were eliminated at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday night, going down three games to one in the National League Division Series. Flying high after a dominating Wild Card Round showing against the Chicago Cubs, the tables were immediately flipped on the Padres against the team with the league's best record. But it was painfully close. San Diego held a lead in each of the first two games of the series. They went up early in Game 1, only for Robbie Ray to falter almost immediately. They had the edge in the ninth inning of Game 2 before all-world closer Mason Miller, in his second inning of work, proved unable to get the sixth out. This was a series that was lost on the margins, and it's going to sting all the more because of it. And that's to say nothing of the additional context of how this team was moving in the second half of the season. After sputtering throughout the first half, a switch was flipped for the Padres down the stretch. Their rotation stabilized into a group capable of regularly giving five-ish innings on a given night (an accomplishment, considering where they sat prior to the All-Star break). Their offense was the best in the sport by a number of measures. Led by a resurgent Fernando Tatis Jr., they jumped out to early leads and came back late to not only work their way back into the Wild Card race by season's end, but secure the top spot in that push. A steady rotation and an elite offense around a relief corps that already served as the class of the league had this team as well-positioned as they've been in years. Sure, the Brewers possessed the best record in baseball, but the teams matched up extraordinarily well. The ability to play at home and, subsequently, send the Cubs back home in a most expedient fashion had the vibes all the way up heading into the NLDS. The inability to then hold onto leads sent things firmly back in the other direction. And just when it seemed like there was life again, the offense retreated back into its shell while the pitching was unable to hold things down against the margin-winning kings from Milwaukee. These Padres weren't the best we've seen over their recent stretch of five playoff teams in seven seasons. But there's a difference between, say, the 2022 NLCS team that was bounced in five games or the 2024 team whose offense went three consecutive games against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS without anything of note to add to the stat sheet and this one. There was serious momentum building into this series against the Brewers, only for the team to die with a whimper. Best team in baseball or not, the combination of second half offense led by star bats, an elite bullpen, and a stabilized rotation should have led to better fortunes. It almost did. Some of those other teams got closer, but this particular Padres team feels like they left a whole lot on the table. That's going to hurt for a while. View the full article

When the Twins traded Louis Varland to the Toronto Blue Jays at the 2025 trade deadline, the biggest piece coming back to Minnesota was Kendry Rojas. However, Alan Roden was an important part of the return, as well. Roden was viewed as a big-league-ready player who could improve the Twins' lineup immediately. That made him an intriguing addition to the trade, especially for a team looking for ways to bolster its offense without sacrificing too much of its future. Alas, Roden's role has become increasingly difficult to identify. He's continued to perform well in the minor leagues. He has shown flashes of that same production in Minnesota. He also has enough defensive versatility to find a role somewhere on the roster, if his bat can keep up as his playing time increases. However, the Twins have a crowded group of young position players competing for playing time, and Roden's path to regular at-bats appears to be disappearing. That creates one of the more interesting roster decisions of the offseason. The Pros of Keeping Alan Roden The biggest argument for keeping Roden is pretty simple: He can hit. Roden has consistently produced at Triple-A over the last couple of seasons (133 wRC+ in 2026, 122 wRC+ in 2025), giving the Twins plenty of evidence that his offensive production isn't simply the product of a small sample size. He also performed well during his limited opportunities with Minnesota this season. In 32 games, he posted a 120 wRC+. Roden didn't receive enough playing time to establish himself as an everyday player, but he showed why the Twins were interested in acquiring him in the first place. The Twins don't have to wonder whether Roden can handle Triple-A pitching. He's already answered that question. The more difficult one is whether Minnesota can give him enough major-league playing time to determine whether his offensive production translates over a larger sample. Roden has experience playing all three outfield positions, although the Twins haven't appeared particularly comfortable using him in center field. That limits his versatility to some degree, but it doesn't eliminate it entirely. First base could also become an option. Roden hasn't regularly played first base since college, so moving him there would represent something of an experiment. Still, the Twins could view first base as another way to get his bat into the lineup, if they don't believe he can be trusted as an everyday outfielder—or just don't want to put him there at the expense of higher-profile prospects. There's value in having a player who can move around the diamond while providing quality at-bats. Roden gives the Twins another left-handed option who has already demonstrated an ability to produce at Triple-A. If injuries strike or another young player struggles, having Roden available could prevent Minnesota from needing to make a more significant roster move. The Cons of Keeping Alan Roden Because Roden was a collegiate draft pick in 2022, he will already be 27 years old next season. That doesn't make him old, by any means, but it does change the calculus surrounding his development. The Twins can't treat Roden like a 22-year-old prospect who needs another year or two to figure things out. He needs to play. That creates an awkward situation. Roden still has a minor league option remaining. The Twins could theoretically send him back to Triple-A and keep him as organizational depth. But what, exactly, would Roden be proving there? He's already performed well at that level. Sending a 27-year-old back to Triple-A after he has demonstrated that he can handle the competition would feel like treading water, rather than developing a player. The larger issue is opportunity. Minnesota has several younger players who need playing time, including players the organization may view as having a higher long-term ceiling, including Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Luke Keaschall. If Roden isn't going to receive consistent at-bats, keeping him on the 26-man roster could mean taking a roster spot away from someone who needs to play. They shouldn't do that, so if they do keep him, they have to be willing to stash him in the minors most of the time—understanding, all the while, that that's not the best thing for the player. What Would the Timeline Look Like? The Twins won't have to make just one decision on Roden. They have several options available. Roden isn't arbitration-eligible until 2029, so it seems unlikely they'll simply cut him loose. He's minimum-salaried for multiple seasons, and he still comes with roster flexibility. They could, however, trade him. Roden's age, Triple-A track record and remaining minor-league option could make him an interesting target for another organization looking for a potential major-league contributor without giving up a premium prospect. Minnesota could keep him on the roster and give him an opportunity to compete for a larger role in spring training. That would allow the organization to see whether he can force his way into the lineup. If Roden is going to be part of the 2027 Twins, Minnesota needs to find a way to give him opportunities. Maybe that means more time in the outfield. Maybe it means experimenting with him at first base. Maybe it means finding another roster fit. What doesn't make much sense is simply sending a productive 27-year-old back to Triple-A because the Twins don't know what else to do with him. The organization acquired Roden because it believed he was ready for the majors. Now, the Twins have to decide whether they still believe that. What will the Twins decide with Roden? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article