DiamondCentric

With a chance to advance to the NL Division Series, the San Diego Padres will be looking to build off a tremendous overall performance in their postseason opener. Right-hander Nick Pivetta will get the start for the Padres in Wednesday's Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park (7 p.m., Peacock). The Padres are coming off an 8-0 victory in Game 1 of the best-of-three series. The winner of this series advances to face the Milwaukee Brewers in the best-of-five NLDS beginning Saturday in Milwaukee. Pivetta missed five months with an elbow injury, only to surprisingly return after just three rehab outings. The Padres' Opening Day starter made four starts in September, showing better form in each outing, the last one 4⅔ innings shutout innings, striking out seven with no walks and allowing four hits. He pitched 18⅔ innings in those four outings, none more than five innings. Considering the Padres' bullpen remains at full strength with another day of rest for the key arms (Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam and Bradgley Rodriguez), another five innings from Pivetta would be exactly what manager Craig Stammen is likely to draw up for Game 2. That is thanks to right-hander Michael King's brilliant Game 1 performance that only required one inning each from left-hander Yuki Matsui and the return of right-hander Joe Musgrove after two years on the shelf following Tommy John surgery. The Cubs managed just three hits in Game 1, none coming until the seventh and two coming from Nico Hoerner. This is MLB's best offense, though they did have a slow September. Of the hitters in the Cubs' lineup, shortstop Dansby Swanson has the best track record against Pivetta (.294/.314/.500), but he has had a bad season at the plate with a slash line of .213/.297/.397. Like King showed in Game 1, Pivetta will need to keep Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman in check. Pivetta will be paired with 20-year-old catcher Ethan Salas, who has caught all four of the right-hander's starts since his return as well as his final rehab outing. Cubs manager Craig Counsell is likely to pull some trick to get the Cubs' bats going. One option is putting Bregman back at third base, where he has yet to play following the facial fractures he sustained a week ago Sunday, then putting Michael Conforto in as the designated hitter. Nick Pivetta vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP 1 Dansby Swanson R 35 34 10 1 0 2 5 1 11 .294 .314 .500 .814 0 0 0 0 0 2 Michael Conforto L 15 13 2 0 0 2 2 2 3 .154 .267 .615 .882 0 0 0 0 1 3 Ian Happ B 11 10 3 1 0 0 0 1 6 .300 .364 .400 .764 0 0 0 0 0 4 Alex Bregman R 8 7 2 0 1 0 1 1 3 .286 .375 .571 .946 0 0 0 0 0 5 Carson Kelly R 6 6 3 0 1 0 1 0 3 .500 .500 .833 1.333 0 0 0 0 0 6 Michael Busch L 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0 7 Seiya Suzuki R 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0 0 0 1 8 Pete Crow-Armstrong L 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .500 .333 .833 0 0 0 0 0 9 Nico Hoerner R 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 10 Matt Shaw R 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0 11 Tyrone Taylor R 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 .000 .500 .000 .500 0 0 0 0 0 Provided by Stathead: Found with Stathead. See Full Results. Generated 9/29/2026. As Fernando Tatis Jr. showed yet again, the Padres' offense can be dangerous from the first pitch. Next up for the Padres to solve is right-hander Kevin Gausman, who would have been the Game 1 starter had he not sustained an injured left shoulder while making a diving defensive play last week. Gausman got an extra day and now the Cubs' season rests on the trade-deadline acquisition. Gausman hasn't exactly instilled a great deal of confidence, posting a 4.81 ERA over nine starts since coming over from the Toronto Blue Jays. He has walked 11 and struck out 57 in 50⅓ innings. The good news for the Padres is that their top hitters have had success against Gausman. Tatis and Manny Machado have two homers each in 24 and 25 plate appearances, respectively, while Xander Bogaerts is 17-for-60 in his career (.283/.317/.367) with a homer. All three homered in Game 1, when the Padres banged out 13 hits. If Game 1 is any indication, Tatis is poised to have a big postseason as long as the Padres are alive. In addition to his first-pitch homer to begin the game, Tatis led off the bottom of the seventh with a single, then stole second and turned on the afterburners and scored after the throw bounced into shallow left-center, electrifying the Petco Park crowd. Kevin Gausman vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP 1 Xander Bogaerts R 63 60 17 2 0 1 5 2 14 .283 .317 .367 .684 0 0 0 1 1 2 Manny Machado R 25 25 9 1 0 2 3 0 3 .360 .360 .640 1.000 0 0 0 0 0 3 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 24 23 8 1 0 2 3 1 5 .348 .375 .652 1.027 0 0 0 0 0 4 Ty France R 21 18 6 1 0 0 1 2 5 .333 .429 .389 .817 0 0 0 1 0 5 Jake Cronenworth L 19 19 2 0 0 0 1 0 6 .105 .105 .105 .211 0 0 0 0 1 6 Austin Hays R 16 14 7 1 0 2 4 2 5 .500 .563 1.000 1.563 0 0 0 0 0 7 Gavin Sheets L 11 9 1 1 0 0 0 2 3 .111 .273 .222 .495 0 0 0 0 0 8 Jackson Merrill L 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 9 Walker Buehler R 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 1 0 0 0 0 10 Luis Campusano R 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 11 Sung-Mun Song L 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 .000 .500 .000 .500 0 0 0 0 0 Provided by Stathead: Found with Stathead. See Full Results. Generated 9/29/2026. View the full article

Alex Bregman has been through the wringer in 2026. After the 32-year-old put pen to paper on a 5-year, $175 million deal, he suffered a slow start that had many questioning if we were witnessing the twilight of the third baseman's career. Fast forward to now, and the two-time World Series champ has his highest home run total (28) since 2019, quite the display of toughness, and a pedigree that matters most in October. View the full article

Sweet Lou and Ol Gregg conduct an autopsy on the 2026 season, assigning blame and looking for silver linings. They have their least restrained Royce Says the Darnedest Things session and introduce a new game. And the return of Sweet Nothings! Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily View the full article

Well, the Kansas City Royals’ season has come to an end, and the feeling the season left us with was not the best. The team fell out of the race too early, the injuries were devastating, and they were never prepared to recover. Since it is never too early to think about next season, I have been reflecting on some ideas that open different expectations about how the Royals could improve their pitching, especially to avoid the breakdowns of a bullpen that has been the worst in the league this year. Here are three thoughts to reflect on. Noah Cameron has shown that he will be key within the 2027 core If injuries had not hit him, the left-hander Cole Ragans was supposed to be the left-handed arm and ace of the Kansas City Royals’ rotation over these last two seasons. Ragans led the team with 9.5 fWAR between 2023 and 2025, but he has been able to make only 21 starts over the last two seasons. Instead, the Royals have had the contribution of Noah Cameron, who arrived in the league on April 30 of last year and, since then, has a 18-15 record, a 4.10 xERA, and has recorded 4.6 fWAR in 55 starts. The only Royals pitcher with more fWAR is Michael Wacha, who has accumulated 6.4 over that span. Last year, Cameron was a revelation, but his 2026 season has shown that he can already be considered part of the team’s main rotation core. And I still feel he can be much better. Last year, Cameron pitched to a 4.10 xFIP, and this year he has recorded 4.16. However, with such a similar profile, this year he had a 4.11 ERA, 1.12 runs above last year’s 2.99 ERA. Part of the difference has been in his ability to leave runners on base: his LOB% fell from 84% to 70.2%, while his BABIP rose from .241 to .276. Either way, Cameron’s fWAR has been better this year at 2.7, representing almost 59% of his career fWAR so far. Cameron has not stood out for finding dominance through the velocity of his fastball, and part of his biggest problems came after adding a sinker that did not give him results. Opponents have hit .424 against him this year, making it the only pitch in his entire repertoire that has been crushed. Even so, what catches my attention most about Cameron is his ability to move through the game and challenge hitters. His durability has been demonstrated throughout the year, recording at least five innings in 27 of his 31 starts. But where Cameron rises up, and I think it is the type of situation that defines him, is after facing the batting order for the second time. The second time through, he has allowed 13 of his 21 home runs, and opponents are slugging .543 in 270 plate appearances. But when he faces the order for the third time, the story changes and, often, Cameron has been able to make adjustments and finish off his opponents, reducing the slugging to .364 and recording his highest K-BB% rate at 19.2%. In any of the Royals’ future plans, his presence on the mound will be key, and once Ragans returns, the rotation could recover the power of the left-handed profile they have had in recent seasons. Daniel Lynch IV should return to reinforce the bullpen There isn't much to discuss here. Being honest, I never liked the move of Daniel Lynch IV to the starting rotation. The Royals were not competing for anything, and they did not have the urgency to do it for almost the entire second half of the season. In just nine starts, Lynch IV has recorded 74% of the innings he pitched in his first 46 appearances as a reliever this year, and his ERA has jumped from 1.96 to 7.01. If this was a test, I think it is clear that it has been enough. Without the contribution of Lynch IV, who recorded 0.8 fWAR as a reliever, the Royals’ bullpen combined for –1.5 fWAR, while his work as a starter has been the worst of the entire rotation at –0.3. The best conclusion the Royals have been able to draw from this is that, after Lynch IV’s departure, opportunities opened up for several pitchers in the bullpen, with some good performances from Connor Thomas, Anthony Gose, José Cuas and Nate Pearson, who have combined for 1.3 fWAR since August 4. If Carlos Estévez does not return, who closes? It would be sensible for the Royals not to risk having Carlos Estévez in their plans, after a season lost to physical problems and shoulder surgery that ended his chances of returning in 2026. The Royals have a $13 million option for 2027, but it is likely that they will end up declining it and paying the $2 million buyout. If so, they would leave room to fill a role that Estévez occupied during 2025, when he led MLB with 42 saves. We have talked a lot about how vulnerable the Royals’ relief pitching has been, but the biggest problems have not really been ineffectiveness in save opportunities. Kansas City ranks 10th in MLB in save percentage at 59%, falling from third place last year (70%) when Estévez was healthy. What has been a real problem is the 41% of inherited runners who have scored, the worst in the American League and behind only the St. Louis Cardinals (59%) in all of the Majors. So, the Royals need to find effective arms that can maintain control of leads so that the game can reach the decisive innings with more save opportunities. Now, as for who would be the next closer if Estévez does not continue with the team, the answer could be within the organization. The Royals have used Steven Cruz (eight saves), Nate Pearson (3) and Alex Lange (2) in the closer role during the second half of the season, a stretch in which the Royals had the worst bullpen in the league with –0.5 fWAR. If it is about talent, Cruz has all the potential to solve the ninth inning. This year, his fastball has been at its highest average velocity at 98.5 mph and, even so, eight of the 14 home runs he has allowed have come against his fastball. His Location+ has improved to 97, above his career mark of 93. Cruz has a cutter and a slider that continue to improve, so if he can make adjustments, he could become a key reliever for 2027, especially if the Royals end up giving him the opportunity to close. View the full article

The Twins are moving on from Pete Maki. After serving as Minnesota’s pitching coach since July 2022, Maki will not return to the coaching staff in 2027, the team announced Monday. Assistant pitching coach Luis Ramirez is also out, meaning the Twins will have a new set of voices overseeing their pitching staff next season. That decision is not particularly surprising, looking at the team's results this year. A Change Was Coming Since 2024, the Twins have finished 21st or worse in MLB in team ERA each season. They ranked 25th in 2026, and eventually, enough was enough. There have been plenty of individual bright spots along the way. Joe Ryan established himself as a legitimate frontline starter when healthy, while Pablo López has shown that same kind of upside during his time in Minnesota. But both pitchers have dealt with injuries, and the Twins have never quite been able to put everything together around them. That distinction is important. Pitchers get hurt; that's baseball. But there's also no denying that the Twins needed more from their pitching staff, particularly outside of their top arms, and that simply didn't happen consistently enough. Bailey Ober is perhaps the clearest example of that frustration. He entered the 2024 season as a dark horse Cy Young candidate after a breakout 2023 campaign, but that never materialized. Zebby Matthews has yet to establish himself as a reliable major-league starter, while the Simeon Woods Richardson experiment ultimately failed to produce the consistency Minnesota was hoping for. And that's really been the story of the middle and back of the Twins' rotation. Too much potential, not enough consistency. Too many "what-if" questions. It Wasn't All on the Coaches Still, I don't think it's fair to look at the Twins' pitching struggles and place all the blame on Maki and Ramirez. In fact, the bullpen had arguably been the biggest strength of Minnesota's roster not long ago. Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Louis Varland and others had formed one of the better late-inning groups in baseball in 2025. Then, the organization blew it up. Minnesota traded away several key pieces at last year's deadline, leaving Maki and the rest of the pitching staff with a bullpen that was a shell of what it had been the year before. Had that group remained intact, it's entirely possible the Twins would still be playing baseball right now. But it didn't, and the team did very little last offseason to replace that lost talent. That raises a legitimate question about the decision to move on from the coaching staff: How much of the pitching staff's struggles were because of coaching, and how much were the result of the organization putting those coaches in a difficult position? There isn't a perfect answer to that question. There's also another possible factor. Maybe Maki and Ramirez simply weren't Derek Shelton's guys. New managers often want to put their own stamp on a coaching staff, and if Shelton believes a different voice or philosophy is needed, replacing the pitching coaches gives him an opportunity to do that. "Ultimately, as we assessed where things were at, we thought it was best-served to go with a new voice and restructure how our pitching coach department was gonna function," Jeremy Zoll told the press on Tuesday. "With each year that goes on, the game continues to evolve, and we're seeing an opportunity here to restructure things with some different skill sets and a fresh voice." Barring an exceptional season from the pitching staff, it's possible this was a move that was always going to happen, regardless of how much responsibility Maki and Ramirez deserved for the results. That's all speculation, though. Regardless of where the blame belongs, the fact remains that the Twins will have new pitching coaches in 2027. The more interesting question now is what Minnesota should be looking for. The Next Voice Needs to Unlock the Rotation Minnesota's search has to start with someone who can get more out of the back of the starting rotation. There just hasn't been enough consistency there. The Twins should have several options to work with next season in the middle-to-back end of their rotation, including Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, Connor Prielipp and Matthews. All of those pitchers have shown flashes of stuff that can make them legitimate major-league starters. What they haven't shown is that they can consistently turn that talent into production at the highest level. That's where the next pitching coach comes in. Minnesota doesn't need someone to completely reinvent the pitching staff. They need someone who can take the talent already in the organization and help turn more of it into reliable major-league production. "We think there's an opportunity to restructure things, to create a fresh voice and new message, and see real value in that and bring in a different set of strengths and weaknesses and how the team all functions," Zoll said. "I think we accomplished that this year on the hitting coach front ... But it's not to say that the people that we previously had in those roles—they've gone on to do really good things too. So, you're just trying to make it all fit for the group you have and the moment in time that you're at on that journey." A New Era for Twins Pitching The Twins' decision to move on from Maki and Ramirez isn't going to solve everything by itself. The organization still has to build a better pitching staff, keep its best arms healthy, and find answers for a rotation that has been far too inconsistent over the last several years. A pair of new pitching coaches should give Minnesota a chance to approach those problems differently. The team is likely to invest significantly in the pitching staff this winter; they need someone standing ready to make good on that investment. View the full article

Ryan Jeffers has spent his entire professional career in the Twins organization, dating back to Minnesota selecting him in the second round of the 2018 MLB Draft. After nearly a decade with the organization, though, the veteran catcher could be approaching the end of his time in Minnesota. Jeffers is not closing the door on a return. In fact, he made it clear that he would welcome the opportunity to stay with the only organization he has known. At the same time, he wants to experience free agency and find out what opportunities exist beyond Minnesota. “I’ve worked too hard to corner myself into one team or two teams,” Jeffers said Sunday, via The Athletic’s Dan Hayes. “I love the idea of a reunion. I also love the idea of going out there and seeing what else is out there.” There should be plenty of interest. Jeffers enters the offseason as arguably the top catcher on the free-agent market and one of the better offensive players available at the position. Since his breakout 2023 season, he has posted a 119 wRC+ across 1,632 plate appearances. That ranks eighth among catchers during that stretch. His 2026 season was particularly encouraging considering the circumstances. A hamate fracture suffered in May cost Jeffers roughly two months and limited him to 92 games. Despite the lost time, he hit .256/.353/.461 with 14 home runs in 368 plate appearances. More importantly, several underlying numbers moved in the right direction. Jeffers posted career-best strikeout and walk rates, striking out in just 17.9% of his plate appearances while walking 12.5% of the time. His 128 wRC+ means he was 28% better than the league-average hitter, while the average MLB catcher finished at just 91. The defensive questions remain. Jeffers has generally been a below-average defensive catcher, and 2026 followed that trend. He caught only 10.6% of potential base stealers and ranked in the 37th percentile as a pitch framer. He performed well with ABS challenges, finishing 12th among 107 catchers in Overturns Vs. Expected. Now the Twins must decide whether Jeffers is worth a $23.1 million qualifying offer. The decision will come shortly after the World Series, and Hayes reports Jeffers is unlikely to accept it. That could leave Minnesota with Victor Caratini as its most experienced catcher heading into 2027. Vahn Lackey, the third overall pick in the 2026 draft, represents the organization's long-term answer, but he is probably still a couple of years away. If Jeffers leaves, the Twins could look for a short-term veteran through free agency or trade. Several experienced catchers, including Tyler Stephenson, Austin Hedges, Jonah Heim, James McCann and former Twin Christian Vázquez, could be available. For now, Jeffers is keeping both possibilities open. After spending his entire career in Minnesota, he has earned the opportunity to see what the rest of baseball thinks he is worth. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins are heading into an offseason with no shortage of questions, but perhaps none is bigger than the one that has followed this organization for years: How much money will the team spend? That question has become almost impossible to separate from any discussion about the Twins' offseason plans. Fans look at the top of the free-agent class and immediately cross off many names, because they assume the Pohlad family won't pay for them. Every potential trade eventually comes back to salary. Every roster need comes with the question of whether ownership will actually provide the money necessary to address it. That's why Tom Pohlad's comments at Monday's end-of-season press conference were so interesting. He didn't give a specific payroll number, but he was about as direct as a Twins owner has ever been about the organization's willingness to spend. "The approach we’re going to take this offseason is strictly about what our strategy is, and I have said over and over that a $100 million payroll or anything close to that is not sufficient to be consistently competitive and in the playoffs, and so we intend to take the offseason and meaningfully invest," Pohlad said. "I know everybody in this room wants me to define what 'meaningfully' is, and I understand that that’s a subjective word. But I am confident that Jeremy Zoll, if he has conviction about a move that’s going to improve this roster and help us accomplish our goals, that this ownership group is prepared to support him with the financial resources he needs." The quote has understandably been divisive among Twins fans. Some fans heard an owner finally saying the things they have wanted to hear for years. Others heard another Pohlad making another promise and immediately thought, "I'll believe it when I see it." Honestly, I understand both reactions. If your immediate response to that quote was skepticism, there is plenty of history behind it. Tom Pohlad is not the first Pohlad to own the Twins, and that family history is a huge reason why fans have such a difficult time trusting anything the organization says about payroll. Carl Pohlad, Jim Pohlad and Joe Pohlad all had their own versions of the same ownership philosophy, at least in the eyes of many Twins fans. The organization has consistently operated with financial limitations, and fans have repeatedly watched the Twins pass on opportunities to spend at the top of the market. Joe Pohlad's comments following the 2024 season are a perfect example. When asked about payroll in an interview with WCCO, he said, "If we have a winning product, regardless of what our payroll is, I think fans will come out." He also said he wasn't going to get into payroll at that point, while promising the Twins would have a better product the following season. A year earlier, he famously talked about the organization needing to "right-size our business." Those comments fit the perception Twins fans had developed over decades. When a Pohlad talked about payroll, the conversation was either vague or focused on financial restraint. That's why I can't blame anyone for looking at Tom Pohlad's comments and refusing to believe them. He has the same last name as the people who came before him, and the Twins have spent years giving fans reasons to be skeptical. There's nothing wrong with wanting to see the money actually spent before deciding that this time is different. Talk is cheap, and the Twins have had plenty of it over the years. But I'm going to do something a little different this offseason. I'm going to believe Tom Pohlad. I'm not suddenly a Pohlad apologist. I've been as critical of the ownership group as anyone, and I'm certainly not willing to declare that Tom Pohlad has already proven he is going to run this organization differently. What I'm willing to do is give him a chance to prove that he is different, because there are some legitimate reasons to think this Pohlad might not simply be a carbon copy of the ones who came before him. The first reason is the obvious one: Tom Pohlad talks about the Twins very differently than the previous Pohlads did. That doesn't mean words are enough, because they aren't, but the difference is difficult to ignore. Compare Monday's comments to Joe Pohlad's comments following the 2024 season. Joe wouldn't even get into a payroll number. Tom Pohlad volunteered that a $100 million payroll is not enough to consistently compete and make the playoffs. Joe talked about having a better product. Tom talked about "meaningfully invest." Joe talked about the business. Tom talked about giving Zoll the financial resources necessary to make moves he has conviction in. We've also heard Tom Pohlad say that he is a "go big or go home" guy. We've heard him say that he would invest in the team at the trade deadline if the Twins were in the playoff mix. We've heard him speak much more confidently about what he believes this organization needs to do to compete. Maybe all of that will ultimately amount to nothing, but it's certainly not the same messaging Twins fans have heard from the Pohlad family for the past several decades. This is a Pohlad talking about spending with a level of confidence and specificity that we haven't heard before. The second reason I'm willing to believe him is that we've already seen Tom Pohlad follow through on one of his promises. Just as the 2026 season began, Pohlad said that if the Twins were in the playoff mix at the time of the trade deadline, he would be aggressive and invest further in the team at that time. When the deadline arrived, the Twins were indeed in the playoff mix, and Pohlad did exactly what he said he would do. The Twins didn't sit on their hands or make a token addition. They were aggressive, adding multiple players and taking on significant money (by Minnesota Twins standards) in the process. The A.J. Minter trade was the clearest example of that. The Twins took on Minter's full remaining contract, rather than trying to find a way to make the deal work while minimizing their financial commitment. Considering the uncertainty surrounding the Twins at the deadline, when it wasn't exactly clear whether they should be buying or selling, ownership could have easily used that uncertainty as a reason to stay conservative. Instead, Pohlad followed through on what he said he would do and supported one of the more aggressive trade deadlines we've seen from the Twins, both in terms of the players they acquired and the money they were willing to take on. It doesn't prove that everything Pohlad has said will come true, but it does give us one pretty important example of him saying he would invest when the opportunity presented itself, and then actually doing it. That doesn't erase decades of skepticism toward the Pohlad family, and it shouldn't. But it does give us at least one example of Tom Pohlad saying he would do something and then actually doing it. Up to this point, he really hasn't given Twins fans much evidence that he can't be trusted when he says he is willing to invest. Now he has a full offseason to show whether that continues. That's why I'm choosing optimism this time around. I'm tired of approaching every Twins offseason by looking at the biggest names in free agency and immediately convincing myself that the Twins won't sign them. I'm tired of looking at a big contract and immediately calculating why ownership won't approve it. I'm tired of telling myself not to get excited about certain players because the Pohlad family will never spend that much anyway. Maybe that pessimism will prove to be correct again, but I'm not going to start the offseason there this time. Maybe I'll be wrong. Maybe "meaningfully invest" will end up meaning something much smaller than Twins fans hope. Maybe the Twins will make a handful of modest moves and call it an investment. Maybe they'll pursue some of the biggest names in free agency and lose out to teams willing to spend more. If that happens, I'll be right there with everyone else asking why the words didn't match the actions. But I don't think Tom Pohlad should be judged entirely on what Carl, Jim or Joe Pohlad did. At some point, you have to allow the new guy to show you who he is. Tom Pohlad has talked differently. He has shown some willingness to back up those words. Now he has a full offseason and an opportunity to make his biggest statement yet. So I'm going to take him at his word. I'm going to believe that "meaningfully invest" actually means meaningful investment. I'm going to believe that a $100 million payroll really isn't enough. I'm going to believe that when Zoll has conviction about a move, ownership will back him up. Maybe I'll regret it, but for once I'm going to enjoy a Twins offseason believing that something bigger might actually be coming. What do you think? Are you willing to believe Tom Pohlad, or do you need to see the Twins actually spend before you'll buy what he's selling? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View the full article

On the first workout day of their weeklong bye before the NLDS, the Brewers didn't play a game-like scrimmage. That was by design. "Don't try to contrive or recreate real at-bats, because you're not going to get those," Pat Murphy said on Tuesday afternoon. Instead of replicating a game, the Brewers held a specialty workout, deliberately dialing down the intensity to work on some of the basics. Even though September was the club's winningest month of the regular season, Murphy felt his players were slipping on executing fundamentals. Outclassing opponents at the little things has been integral to their regular-season success. "Let's work on some fundamental things," Murphy said. "Let's work on some specific things, and we'll go from there." And so, while Grant Anderson and Logan Henderson threw live at-bats to select hitters with no defenders, a rotation of baserunners worked with Spencer Allen on leads and jumps at first base, an area where Murphy said he wanted improvement. The workout lasted about one hour. The other reason for starting slowly was that the Brewers needed a break. Like most teams, they're banged up after six months of baseball. Jake Bauers has been playing through shin splints and a fractured toe; Joey Ortiz is dealing with an abdominal strain and a knee contusion; and Cooper Pratt and Andrew Vaughn are recovering from illness. Jacob Misiorowski, Henderson, and Shane Drohan are among the pitchers who set career highs in innings pitched. A few days to get guys off their feet is a luxury the Brewers earned by winning a franchise-record 103 games. "I didn't feel like we limped to the finish line, but, you know, it's 162 games," Drohan said. "Everybody's going through something, so I feel like these couple days off are going to be huge for us, so we can just come out of the gate firing." Taking greater advantage of the time off could be key for the Brewers, who ran out of steam in last year's NLCS sweep against the Dodgers. To make a deeper postseason run, they'll need to have enough left in the tank through October. "We're planning on being the team that no one expected that's going to continue to win, but learning from what we did last year -- the emotional series that we had in the division series, knowing that we got to recover and be ready," Murphy said. "Then we lose a game, Game 1 against the Dodgers, and just didn't recover the way I'd like to." The challenge is striking the balance that makes the bye week an asset, not a detriment. Statistically, there's no evidence that the bye disrupts a team's momentum and leaves them rusty for the start of the NLDS. Last year's Brewers roared out of the gates with a 9-3 victory in Game 1 over the Cubs and eventually won the series. Still, baseball is a mental game, and there's a perceived danger in letting off the gas pedal too far. The Brewers will progress to more intense workouts by the end of the week. "For years, I've heard managers and players say, 'That layoff killed us. We just got out of our rhythm.' That's real. That could happen," Murphy said. "But it really comes down to the ballplayers, and it comes down to their understanding, their awareness, and their willingness to say, 'Look, I've got to stay on.' Today, maybe not, but probably starting [Wednesday]." "We kind of experienced this a little bit last year, so we know what we might need to get better at," Brice Turang said. "Just having full trust in what Murph wants to do, and then mentally just being prepared to go." For Misiorowski, the week off won't look much different. By starting him in the regular-season finale on Sunday, the Brewers lined him up to pitch Game 1 on Saturday on the five days of rest he received for most of the year. "For myself, it's going to be pretty normal," Misiorowski said. "I'm going to be doing my normal stuff [the days] between, so it's going to be normal rest." The downtime also gives the Brewers a few more days to evaluate roster candidates. That includes Kyle Harrison, whose stuff bounced back over his final few outings but with mixed results. Given his upside, the Brewers seem likely to take that decision all the way up to the buzzer, and how he looks in his side work during the bye could influence whether he makes the cut as a reliever. "That last outing meant something," Murphy said. "It was leverage. So yeah, I'm looking forward to seeing what this week brings. It's not a tryout, but we're looking for consistency, the secondary stuff to be consistent. I think he could definitely grab a spot here." The Brewers' most important games lie ahead. This week is about best positioning themselves to succeed when the lights turn back on. "I think the vibes in here are great," Drohan said. "I think everybody's appreciating these couple days off." View the full article

Thirty-two different pitchers made at least one appearance for the Minnesota Twins in 2026. It's certainly a sign of the times. Twenty years ago, in 2006, the team used barely over half that number (17). This Twins staff had plenty of injuries, but the front office also churned-and-burned through arms as they looked to account for innings on a staff depleted by the 2025 deadline firesale. As you get to the bottom of the list below, you might start running into names you barely remember. Here are my grades for all 32 hurlers who appeared for the Twins this season, in order of innings pitched. Taj Bradley (178.1 IP): A- Huge breakout and without a doubt that biggest individual bright spot for the Twins this year. He threw the most innings of any Minnesota starter in the last two seasons despite an IL stint, joining 2023 Pablo López and 2018 José Berríos as the only Twins since 2010 to strike out 200 hitters. Posted a career-best 3.73 ERA and 3.82 FIP. Team went 18-13 in his starts. Joe Ryan (144.2 IP): B- Seemingly a harsh grade for one of the team's two All-Stars, but Ryan's second half (once again) did so much to undo all of the great work from early on. He missed a month with a glute injury and struggled mightily when on the mound, going 1-5 with a 6.82 ERA and 11 homers allowed in seven post-break starts. His inability to stay effective throughout a full season has become such a bummer. Bailey Ober (131 IP): C Against all odds, Ober held his own with the lowest top-end velocity of any pitcher in baseball, posting a slightly below-average 95 ERA+. Missed time and logged fewest innings in four years but the big righty was a stable back-of-rotation arm. Zebby Matthews (130.1 IP): C- Maddeningly inconsistent. Matthews showed great flashes at times, and stayed mostly healthy, but his proneness to homers and clunker outings resulted in a sub-par 4.90 ERA. When the Twins added to their rotation at the deadline, he was the one demoted, which seems telling. Connor Prielipp (125.2 IP): B- An even more encouraging season than this grade would suggest. His ERA (4.87) was barely lower than Matthews, but Prielipp did it with much better peripherals and mixed in a very strong finish, which was especially reassuring as he ventured deep into unprecedented workload territory. Andrew Morris (73.2 IP): C+ Much like Ryan, an instance where a very poor finish diminished much of the good work leading up to it. Acclimating to the majors and a full-time relief role simultaneously, Morris was brilliant for much of his rookie campaign, posting a 2.98 ERA through 47 appearances and elevating into the top setup role. But he cratered in the last six weeks with a 8.80 ERA and five losses in his final 16 appearances, leading to merely average numbers overall. Taylor Rogers (60.1 IP): C+ A valued veteran presence whose performance on the mound was mediocre, with the caveat that most of his worst outings came in garbage time. Stayed healthy, led team in appearances. Travis Adams (59 IP): C- Brutal in May and June, but quietly rounded into form during the second half with a 3.31 ERA and 3.66 FIP from July 1st onward. It wasn't enough to salvage a 90 ERA+, but the promising finish should give Adams a leg-up in next year's bullpen competition. Dean Kremer (54.1 IP): B+ Deadline acquisition pitched very well in 10 starts as a Twin, holding opponents to two or fewer runs in seven of them en route to a 3.48 ERA that greatly outshined his numbers before the trade. He won four of five decisions. Kody Funderburk (51 IP): B+ Another pitcher who really turned a corner in the second half, shaking off his control struggles to post a 3.03 ERA with 36 strikeouts and only one home run and nine non-intentional walks allowed in 34 post-June appearances. Yoendrys Gómez (49.2 IP): B+ The start to his Twins career could have hardly been better: 1.85 ERA with a perfect 20-for-20 save conversion rate through 44 appearances. The final stretch would have hardly been worse: 10.13 ERA with two blown saves in his final 12 games. The sum result, though, was a very solid season as a Twin. He led the bullpen in WPA and filled a crucial need out of nowhere. (We're not factoring his nine ugly outings with the Rays.) Simeon Woods Richardson (47.2 IP): F Stunning fall from grace. A multi-year rotation staple, Woods Richardson ended the 2025 season with momentum but fell flat in 2026, posting a 7.74 ERA in 12 appearances (10 starts) before being waived in early June. Eric Orze (41.1 IP): D- Pitched his way out of the team's plans with a 5.66 ERA through 36 appearances. For what it's worth, the 3.34 FIP looks a lot better and suggests bad luck was in play, but the Twins never saw fit to recall him from Triple-A after an early-June demotion. Anthony Banda (34.1 IP): C Got off to a rough start, was on his way to turning it around before a season-ending lat injury suffered in late June. Ultimately the 4.46 ERA is nothing to write home about. Mike Paredes (34.1 IP): C- For Paredes, a 4.72 ERA actually is something to write home about. He was far down the pitching depth chart entering this season, but stepped up as attrition struck. Made five starts among nine appearances and generally did his job by keeping the Twins in games. The 18-to-13 K/BB ratio doesn't paint him as an arm worth counting on in the future. Kendry Rojas (29.2 IP): B Showcased impressive stuff and velocity in limited action, posting a 3.34 ERA with 34 strikeouts and just two home runs allowed across 29 ⅔ innings. The control issues are a problem though, with 22 walks removing some of the luster. Didn't pitch for Twins after August 2nd, which is unfortunate. Tommy Nance (26.2 IP): C+ Sort of a middling acquisition when Minnesota targeted him in early July, he pitched shockingly well for a stretch: 1.35 ERA through 14 appearances. Nance unsurprisingly regressed from there, allowing runs in seven of his last 10 appearances to finish with a 4.21 ERA as Twin. A.J. Minter (22.2 IP): A- Pretty much exactly what you want from a rental reliever. He posted a 2.78 ERA and 22-to-6 K/BB ratio in 25 appearances with the Twins. Mick Abel (20.1 IP): B+ Since we're only grading here based on time spent on the field, Abel was quite good. He struck out 25% of batters faced, allowed zero home runs, and threw 13 shutout innings in his last two starts. Unfortunately, he went down in April with an elbow injury that ultimately required surgery and ended his season. Justin Topa (19 IP): F Gave up 27 hits (including four homers), 11 walks and 17 earned runs in 19 innings before being released in May. Jeff Hoffman (18 IP): A- The front office's marquee deadline addition looked fantastic after being acquired, allowing just nine hits (zero home runs) with 27 strikeouts in 18 innings. A truly dominant arm that could've been a real difference-maker if the Twins were able to stay in the fight. Cody Laweryson (16.2 IP): D Surprisingly made the bullpen out of camp but failed to reward the team's confidence with a 4.86 ERA and 5.08 FIP across 16 ⅔ innings of work. He was released in August to make room on the 40-man roster for Minter. Cole Sands (12 IP): F Threw only 12 innings all year with an 8.25 ERA. Completely lost season that puts his career outlook in jeopardy, especially on the heels of an underwhelming 2025. Garrett Acton (11 IP): D There are things to like about his pitch arsenal, but a 5.73 ERA in 11 innings between injuries is what it is. Luis Garcia (8.2 IP): F Gets no worse than this. In nine excruciating appearances, the washed-up veteran allowed 10 earned runs while striking out just two of 42 batters faced. Justin Lawrence (6 IP): F Another forgettable midseason relief flier. Gave up a whopping 12 earned runs in just six frames, averaging more than three baserunners allowed per inning. Marco Raya (6 IP): B Wish we could have seen a little more of the intriguing young righty. He got the job done in his three two-inning appearances, allowing just two runs for a 3.00 ERA, but was far from dominant. John Klein (4.1 IP): D+ Barely got any chances. Struggled to throw strikes when he did, issuing four walks with just two strikeouts. Jack Anderson (4.1 IP): A I didn't remember him pitching this well, to be honest. Allowed zero runs, two hits and one walk with six strikeouts in his four appearances. That's very fine work. Wasn't enough to earn him any opportunities in the majors after July, but Anderson remains on the 40-man roster for now. Woo-Suk Go (4 IP): F Flashed mildly intriguing stuff but allowed eight hits in four innings of work. Austin Voth (4 IP): F Made only one appearance and it wasn’t pretty; the Dodgers went 11-for-24 against him and scored five earned runs. Zak Kent (3.2 IP): D- Gave up a hit or walk to nine of the 20 batters he faced in two relief outings. The Twins cycled an awful lot of arms to get through 2026, but they came out of the churn with some important answers. Bradley emerged as a legitimate rotation anchor, Prielipp held up through a breakthrough workload, and several younger pitchers showed enough to warrant continued opportunities. There are still plenty of questions to answer — especially with Ryan and Ober coming off uneven seasons and the bullpen remaining unsettled — but compared to where this pitching staff stood after last year's deadline teardown, there's at least a clearer foundation to build around. And as we just learned, it will be a new pitching group leading the way. View the full article

The good news is that, unlike almost anyone else in the sport, Alex Bregman can tell his Cubs teammates firsthand what it's like when a team comes back from a 1-0 deficit to win the best-of-three Wild Card Series. Entering Wednesday, that's only happened once, and Bregman was there. Unfortunately, it was last year, when the Yankees stormed back to take two straight games from Bregman's Red Sox and survive the Wild Card Series, with all the games played at Yankee Stadium. This situation isn't analogous to that one—at least, not in any way that flatters the Cubs. The 2025 Yankees were pretty clearly better than the Red Sox team they were hosting, with a five-game edge in both actual and Pythagorean record (an estimate of how many games each club should have won, based on their raw numbers of runs scored and allowed). They had home-field advantage, and they had a deep, hard-throwing pitching staff. They still barely eked out a win in Game 2, but once they did so, they were in great shape for Game 3. In one reading, though, the Cubs are just built in the opposite way. They had the best offense in baseball this season, by runs scored, so why isn't it possible that they'll bounce back from an 8-0 demolition at the hands of the Padres and win a slugfest or two, to make it out of San Diego alive? That's a rhetorical question, of course. It is possible. It just doesn't feel like it, after Game 1. It's becoming clear what a costly fumble the team committed by losing home-field advantage in this series amid a disappointing September. The Padres lit Petco Park like a powder keg in the postseason opener, and Chicago never recovered. Matthew Boyd's plan wasn't as bad as it looked; he just didn't make good enough pitches to beat a Padres team that had his number. Boyd likes to start his very slow changeup on the plate and let it fade away from righties, but the Padres were sitting on that pitch. If the pitch is well-located, that's not a problem, really. It doesn't earn a whiff, but it's likely to induce weak contact—something off the end of the bat, for a ground ball or a harmless fly. Boyd, though, made five mistakes with the change to righties, leaving it on the outer half but not far enough from the batter, and not low enough. Three of those mistakes went over the wall, accounting for three of the Padres' four early runs. If he'd been perfect otherwise, and if Craig Counsell hadn't nervously pulled him in favor of a bullpen that had no more answers, it still wouldn't have mattered. Tuesday was a night when the Cubs made many mistakes, from filling out the lineup card (leaving out Michael Conforto, who matched up better against Padres starter Michael King than anyone else on the roster) to not moving runners (Ian Happ) or making plays (Pete Crow-Armstrong, Carson Kelly) when they had rare chances to do so. It's not clear, though, that any of those mistakes really mattered. They were simply overmatched. King was on his game, and when he's on his game, he's on a level neither Boyd nor any other Cubs starter can match. His fastball was up from its usual 94 miles per hour to almost 96, and he had the ability to stretch the zone both horizontally and vertically. On a night when the Padres didn't even use their highest-octane, highest-leverage relievers, they still dominated Cubs batters with stuff Cubs pitchers couldn't match, and that not even Crow-Armstrong could hit. There were 46 pitches with an induced vertical break (rising action) of at least 15 inches; the Padres threw 31 of them. There were 37 pitches thrown with at least 17 inches (one home plate's worth) of horizontal break; the Padres threw 22 of them. There were 52 pitches that came in at 95 MPH or faster; the Padres threw 32 of them. King dominated. Even if Conforto had been in the lineup, or if Happ had gotten a runner over when he had a chance in the second inning, not much would have changed; it was just someone else's night. It didn't have to look as bad as it did. The Cubs kept giving up runs by getting sloppy, with free bases galore and a two-base error on a Fernando Tatis Jr. stolen base. The Padres were a better team, though, and they had a good game. Now, the Cubs will try to remember that they, too, can be that good a team, and try to have that good a game. Kevin Gausman gets the ball, but he probably won't pitch much deeper than Boyd did, even if he's effective. With the season on the line, Counsell will be proactive, and he won't go back to the likes of Javier Assad and Aaron Civale. Daniel Palencia, Ryan Zeferjahn and another member of the starting staff (like David Peterson) will almost surely make appearances. The truth is that the Cubs looked overmatched, and might actually be so. They can't throw as hard as the Padres, and throwing hard is more important than ever. They score runs mostly when Crow-Armstrong and Bregman produce them; the bottom half of the batting order has been weak for about two months now. Their vaunted defense cracked under pressure from their hosts. But, despite the grim history, a series this short can still flip in a hurry. There's time, yet, for Chicago to show the balance and dynamism that defined them at their best. It's a good thing every game only counts as one. Tuesday night felt like two or three different losses rolled into one. The Cubs aren't dead yet. They just have to play much better Wednesday night. 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The New York Mets’ season could well be divided into two completely different parts. First, the team’s initial stretch when they played to a 36-50 record between March and June, a disappointing run that sank the team’s expectations and inevitably turned them into sellers when the trade deadline arrived. When Carlos Mendoza was fired on June 26, one day after the 4-3, ten-inning loss to the Chicago Cubs at Citi Field, the Mets were playing to a 34-47 record. After that, managed by Andy Green, who was recently named the team’s full-time manager on a three-year contract, they played basically .500 ball with a 40-41 record. The results have been much more encouraging with Green, as the team went 38-38 after the start of July, including a 27-24 mark after August 1. With no chance to compete for a return to the postseason, the Mets gave several promising players an opportunity down the stretch. At the same time, they received some interesting signals during the second half of this season that generated some key expectations looking ahead to the 2027 season. Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing Rebuild Mets' Outfield In One Season Benge had a rookie season that exceeded my expectations. He posted a 118 wRC+ and 4.3 fWAR all while becoming the first rookie with a 20-20 season in franchise history. But when I look at his performance, the first number that, in a certain way, makes me think is his 654 plate appearances. At 23 years old, he has been an everyday player and his consistency adds much more value to his performance in his rookie season. But it was in this second half of the season when Benge surprised the most, batting .310/.373/.471, with nine home runs, 34 RBIs and a 136 wRC+ in 62 games. But offensive value is not the only way Benge impacts the game. The great defensive complement that has made him the most powerful arm in the game and one of the best outfielders in the league also comes into play. Statcast credits him with +7 defensive runs, the best mark in MLB, with +8 runs generated by runners thrown out and +7 by keeping them at their base. He has had the impressive ability to change games with his throws, standing out in both power and accuracy, in addition to his ability to move around the outfield. And this is where Ewing also enters the conversation. Ewing, 21, recorded 2.0 fWAR and a 97 wRC+ in 492 plate appearances during his rookie season, joining Benge to form a duo that has stabilized the Mets’ defense following the departures of Luis Robert Jr. and Tyrone Taylor. Ewing has struggled offensively—mostly with problems against breaking balls—seeing his wRC+ fall from 121 in the first half to just 77 after the All-Star break, but his defense has been above average, recording +2 FRV. Although his tools have not been on Benge’s level, Ewing has enough talent to take a leap to another level in the future. Daniel Duarte and Nate Lavender Emerge As Relief Aces Duarte and Lavender were not only the two pitchers with the most innings accumulated in this second half of the season in the Mets’ bullpen, they also lead with a combined 1.4 fWAR, which represents 74% of the 1.9 fWAR recorded by all of the team’s relievers. The other 21 pitchers the Mets have used combine for 0.5 fWAR. Still, there is a difference between Duarte and Lavender that could shape a decision going forward. In high-leverage situations, Duarte was vulnerable, seeing his xFIP rise from 3.84 to 6.21 in 21 matchups. It may seem like a small sample, but it is equivalent to an average of one key at-bat for each of the 21 relief appearances he has made in this second half of the season. In fact, Duarte has been the pitcher who has faced the most pressure situations in the entire Mets bullpen. Duarte has shown that he can rely on his almost unhittable sweeper—opponents went 2-for-27 with 15 strikeouts against it—but he still has not been able to make the adjustments with his cutter. In contrast, Lavender was a master under pressure, with a 2.42 xFIP (the best on the team with at least 10 batters faced in high-leverage situations), a 12.3 K/9 rate and no walks. Kodai Senga Saves His Career With Switch To Bullpen Look, I’ll be honest: I still don’t trust Senga enough, but it is a fact that he solved some of his control problems, struck out more batters, and was much more effective in a relief role. After his fateful start, when he pitched to an 0-8 record and 8.66 ERA with a 6.50 FIP in his first 13 appearances of the season, Senga was able to hold his own after being moved into the closer role. In his next 18 outings, he recorded eight saves in nine opportunities, improving to a 3.78 ERA and 4.00 FIP. The Mets played to a 13-5 record during that stretch with Senga’s contribution as the closer. The forkball remains the Japanese right-hander’s lethal weapon, with which he has struck out 56% of his opponents (42 of 75), but his fastball remains an enigma, and hitters have crushed his sweeper and cutter, batting .500 and .345, respectively. I’d like to know what you think, but I still haven’t gotten used to the idea of Senga being the most suitable pitcher to be the closer in the future. Either way, he seems to have regained a little confidence, and I’m sure this version of him can be useful in some type of role within the pitching staff for the 2027 season. View the full article

MIAMI, FL — Tuesday marked president of baseball operations Peter Bendix's end-of-season press conference. The Miami Marlins concluded their season with an 80-82 record, a one-game improvement from the 2025 season, but nine games worse than the record they would've needed to qualify for the postseason. "We're all disappointed to be having this this press conference here today," said Bendix in his opening remarks. "We want this to be much later in the month. That said, I'm also very proud of our team and organization. I think there was tremendous progress that was shown on the field and off the field. I think we continue to really build on this foundation, take a meaningful step forward in a lot of ways and at the same time, we're angry, disappointed and not satisfied with where we are. Both of those things are true at the same time." Here were the main takeaways from Bendix's press conference. Pedro Guerrero will not return The Marlins are parting ways with Pedro Guerrero, who served as their hitting coach the past two seasons. "He did a tremendous job for us," Bendix said. "He is a wonderful human being. We're going to miss having him around, and really appreciate everything that Pedro gave to us. Just time for a new voice in the hitting space." Last season, the Marlins ranked 16th among MLB teams in wRC+ (100), ninth in OPS (.727) and 23rd in home runs (168). The overall production was not bad, but the Marlins had trouble with left-handed pitching, posting a .684 OPS (compared to a .743 OPS vs. RHP). Assistant hitting coaches Corbin Day and Chris Hess will both return, per Bendix. "Evaluating a hitting coach is very difficult," Bendix said regarding what they are looking to fill the now vacant spot. "That role is very, very difficult. I think we have a unique structure here, not just in the hitting department, but in all of our departments with a a director of hitting in this case that oversees our our hitting space. So we are really looking for that sort of alignment from top to bottom with our director, with our our entire hitting coaches. That's what we'll be prioritizing." Jakob Marsee dealing with elbow injury Bendix revealed that outfielder Jakob Marsee was "banged up all season" and is currently dealing with left elbow discomfort. There is enough concern that Marsee will be visiting Dr. Keith Meister next week. Meister has frequently operated on Marlins players who require UCL reconstruction, but a source close to Marsee tells Fish On First that an MRI was conducted on Saturday morning and Tommy John surgery is not likely. Marsee finished the 2026 season slashing .231/.348/.359/.706 with 11 home runs, 41 RBI and a 100 wRC+. Any procedure that causes Marsee to miss time next season would be a major blow to the club right out of the gate. Fortunately, the Marlins' top position player prospect, Cam Cannarella, also plays center field and will soon be major league-ready. Sandy Alcantara's future Alcantara has a $21M club option for the 2027 season. He led Major League Baseball with 214 innings pitched this year while setting numerous Marlins career records and would certainly earn more than that on the free agent market. On the other hand, this franchise operates with the lowest payroll in MLB and has never paid a salary that high to an active player. Bendix did not comment on whether Alcantara's option will be exercised, but a source told Fish On First that in all likelihood, he'll be staying with the Marlins. Per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, they have no intentions of trading Alcantara this offseason. "He is so meaningful to this organization and that's not lost on me," Bendix said. "Another incredible season. Really fun to watch him pitch, his leadership in the clubhouse, the way he handles himself and the way he sets an example for the rest of the team. It's second to none. It's something that I know Clayton really appreciates and I really appreciate. We value it tremendously." This has consistently been Bendix's style. However, it continues to look awkward in regards to Sandy, a Marlins franchise icon who has expressed his desire to not only remain in Miami in 2027, but finish his career with the organization. Starting pitchers coming out of the bullpen The Marlins experimented with bringing starting pitchers out of the bullpen towards the end of the season. It began "out of necessity," per Bendix, when the team was down a lot of relief arms on August 26. Janson Junk filled the void on a day that he was already scheduled for a pitch design session, throwing in the game instead. Having Alcantara, Eury Pérez and Junk all buy into this has opened avenues for the team in 2027. "I think it kind of it's been a a conversation that we've been having with the coaches, with the players, for a while now. Ever since we started these live pitch designs that are meant to be more game-like in between starts, it's something that we've wondered...I do think that it shows the innovation of this organization that we're continually willing to try these things. It's a credit to both the pitchers themselves for being willing to do that, Clayton (McCullough) and our pitching coaches Daniel (Moskos) for being willing to encourage that, try it, even though it's not really something that's been done before." Impending lockout MLB will likely be going into a work stoppage on December 1 when the league’s existing collective bargaining agreement expires. Last time this happened, the offseason saw a flurry of moves right before the stoppage, including the Marlins signing Sandy Alcantara to an extension and free agent Avisail Garcia to a four-year deal. This time around, Bendix is at the helm instead of Kim Ng. How is he preparing for it? "Nobody has any idea what's going to happen in the lockout," Bendix said. "Those are discussions that are taking place elsewhere. My job is to focus on the Marlins and prepare for the 2027 season and play 162 games. Five years ago, we dealt with something similar where there was this pending date where things were going to be cut off, and we kind of know what to expect with that, and we're spending a lot of time preparing, so we'll hit the ground running." View the full article

The Blue Jays will be watching the postseason festivities from afar in 2026, but that isn't any fault of the pitching staff. They were extremely clutch on many occasions throughout the year, led on most nights by Louis Varland, whose +4.7 WPA placed third among all pitchers in baseball. Despite constantly being tested by injury (Toronto led MLB in total reliever appearances by a long shot), the team had the ninth-best pitching WPA in the league. Here are the plays that stood out the most. 5. Brendon Little: Ezequiel Tovar Force Out, Top 10, 4/1 (+27.8% WPA) Brendon Little would wind up salvaging his season down the stretch, with a 2.28 ERA, 3.48 FIP, and a K-BB% of 18% after the All-Star break. His first half was very difficult, as he spent most of it in the minors, but he did get a huge out in the top of the 10th to keep things close in the second series of the season against the Rockies. With Colorado threatening to add some insurance, he got Ezequiel Tovar to bounce a first-pitch curveball right to Kazuma Okamoto at third, who threw to second to end the inning. 4. Braydon Fisher: Jose Altuve Groundout, Top 10, 6/23 (+29.0% WPA) This was a game that, had the Blue Jays won, would've put them over .500 for the first time since the first week of April. They wound up losing one inning after this play and wouldn't clear the .500 mark again until early September. Still, Braydon Fisher did everything in his power to get them there, working a clean and efficient top of the 10th to give the offense a chance. Jose Altuve was on the hunt for his fourth hit of the game, but with the go-ahead run 90 feet away, his chopper to short ended the threat. 3. Louis Varland: Connor Norby Strikeout Double Play, Top 8, 5/27 (+29.4% WPA) The Marlins were aggressive on the bases in this one, attempting nine steals throughout the afternoon. With a full count, one out, and men on the corners in a one-run game in the top of the eighth, they tried a bold set play to get the tying run home by inducing a throw to second. However, Connor Norby took a high curveball for strike three, and in one of Tyler Heineman's final big moments as a Blue Jay, he fired a cannon to Ernie Clement, catching Jakob Marsee dead to rights and getting his guys off the field. 2. Braydon Fisher: Luis Arraez FIDP, Bot 11, 8/9 (+33.7% WPA) With all due respect to Fisher – who did great work along with the rest of the bullpen this whole series that saw two games go to extras and the other remain in the balance until the final out of the ninth – this play will always be remembered for Nathan Lukes's unbelievable throw. Luis Arraez thought he had a walk-off sac fly, but Lukes unleashed a one-hop strike to Alejandro Kirk at the plate, retiring Garrett Stubbs and sending the game to the 12th. For the second straight year, Lukes was excellent in right field. His throwing arm alone saved the Blue Jays six runs according to Statcast, placing him in the 98th percentile. 1. Louis Varland: Nolan Schanuel GIDP, Bot 9, 4/21 (+34.0% WPA) Jeff Hoffman couldn't slam the door in this one, so Louis Varland was summoned to face Nolan Schanuel with the bases loaded and one out. Even though the Angels were down by two, Schanuel could have won them this game without leaving the yard. Instead, Varland got him to ground into a double play on the first pitch. This remains one of the most decisive rally-killers in Blue Jays history and perfectly encapsulates the otherworldly season that Varland enjoyed. View the full article

It didn't take long for you to know that this was going to be a special day for Michael King in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series. The San Diego Padres' right-handed starter, facing the all-but-official NL MVP leading off the game in Chicago Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong, zipped his first pitch of the night, a sinker, on the inside portion of the plate at 96.3 mph. Taken for a strike. The second pitch was a sweeper, a pitch that would prove devastating all night, at 86.4 mph. Swung through by Crow-Armstrong. Then came King's first four-seamer. With the Petco Park crowd revved up, King unleashed a 97.6 mph fireball that Crow-Armstrong got a slight piece of, but the ball ended up in Luis Campusano's mitt for his first strikeout. Talk about setting the tone. King would set down Alex Bregman on strikes, getting him to chase a sweeper for strike three. Seeing the carnage in front of him, Michael Busch didn't allow himself to get into a two-strike hole. He pulled a 1-1 four-seamer to first baseman Ty France, who made a nice stop to his right and tossed to King covering the bag to complete a perfect first inning. Slicing through the top three hitters of MLB's best offense like King did was a precursor for what would come over seven innings. King didn't allow a hit until the seventh inning, striking out eight in showcasing the wares that made him the Padres' ace this year, particularly in the second half. Backed by first-inning homers from Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, the Padres cruised to an 8-0 victory in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series. It was the biggest shutout win by the Padres in franchise history, surpassing a 6-0 win over the New York Mets on Oct. 9, 2022. This is the King that the Padres were hoping to get when he re-signed for three years and $75 million when his market was lukewarm following a couple of injuries that curtailed his 2025. His first four-seamer to Crow-Armstrong, the one at 97.6 mph, was his fastest pitch since 2023 when he was primarily a reliever and still with the New York Yankees. Against Bregman, the next batter, King would clock a 97.5 mph sinker. King has been the biggest reward for the Padres in the Juan Soto trade following that 2023 season. While King had trouble cracking the Yankees' rotation, starting just 19 times in 115 games over five seasons, he has been an integral part of the Padres' plan in the last three years, starting all but one of his 78 games with the Friars. If things had worked out perfectly this year, King was slotted in as the Padres' No. 3 starter behind fellow right-handers Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta. But, as we all know, things went far from perfectly for the rotation this year. With Musgrove not throwing a pitch since spring training as his comeback from Tommy John surgery experienced obstacles and Pivetta then missing five months, it was up to King to be the leader, the stabilizer of the rotation. Which he was. King has been good the entire season, but in particular, he was sensational in the second half. He had 18 quality starts in his 32 games, including eight straight before that came to an end in his final regular-season start against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In Game 1, however, King turned in his best start as a Padre. It echoed back to his first postseason start with the Friars. That was Game 1 of the 2024 NL Wild Card Series against Atlanta in which King fanned 12 and didn't issue a walk over seven innings in a 4-0 win, also at Petco Park. He controlled Crow-Armstrong and Bregman, striking them out a combined five times in six trips. Crow-Armstrong walked on five pitches in the third inning, one of three free passes King issued. King's sweeper was huge. King racked up 16 whiffs, with seven coming off his sweeper, which was 2.5 mph higher than it was during the regular season at 84.5. His four-seamer was up 1.5 mph. The first hit didn't come until the seventh. Nico Hoerner pulled a ball down the third-base line that Manny Machado took four steps to his right and slid to stop, but couldn't get a handle on to attempt a throw. Even if he had handled the grounder, the speedy Hoerner would have been a tough out at first. King's 6⅓ innings was the longest postseason no-hit bid since Anibal Sanchez of the Washington Nationals went 7⅔ in Game 1 of the 2019 NL Championship Series vs. the St. Louis Cardinals. While his contract situation is likely the furthest from his mind, King has an opt-out after this season after making $17 million this year. He is slated to make $28 million in 2027 and $30 million in 2028 with another opt-out after next year. But if this is the type of performance the Padres are going to get out of King, he has certainly locked up a lucrative payday, perhaps as the No. 2 or No. 3 available free-agent starter. That is a concern for another day, though. For now, the Padres have a legit playoff No. 1 starter. The best offense, and its MVP candidate, found that out the hard way. It bodes well for what the Friars want to accomplish the rest of this postseason. View the full article

Cam Schlittler is, without a doubt, the AL Cy Young favorite. He led the AL in fWAR (6.2), ERA (1.95), xERA (2.85), and FIP (2.56) on the strength of a three-fastball mix. Over 33 starts and 193.2 innings, 89.3% of his pitches were either a four-seamer, cutter, or sinker. Entering Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, the Boston Red Sox were preparing to face a steady stream of the hard stuff. So, naturally, Schlittler leaned on his worst pitch to befuddle them all night long. Throughout the regular season, Schlittler’s curveball was his fourth pitch. He threw it 9.8% of the time, with his highest single-game usage at 20.4% (for a total of 19). And the reason why was very simple: it wasn’t particularly good. Based on run values, it was easily his worst pitch, and it even had a higher contact rate than his sinker. It would be one thing if the young right-hander threw a few curveballs in the first inning to keep the Red Sox guessing, but he came out firing and never stopped. All it took was four innings and 66 pitches for him to hit 19 curveballs, equaling his season high. By the time his night was done, he had thrown 32 curveballs, comprising 27.3% of his total pitches. It wasn’t just the volume of curves that stood out; it was the effectiveness. Fourteen were thrown for strikes, eight swinging, six called, four were fouled off, and only two were put in play. Schlittler's curveball propelled him to 6.1 innings of shutout ball with 10 strikeouts and only one walk. The Red Sox got caught with their pants down in Game 1. While Schlittler threw his curveball a little under 10% of the time on the season, his usage had inched up to 13.34% since June 30. It’s tough when an elite pitcher makes a wholesale shift out of the blue, though it's not like this was completely unexpected. Simply put, this team got out-prepared by the Yankees. The fact remains that the Sox were completely helpless against a pitcher who leaned into his worst pitch. The element of surprise should only get you so far. It was a gambit that paid off for New York, but it was also an opportunity missed for Boston. They got the presumptive Cy Young winner to abandon his terms and still came up empty. View the full article

We’ve made it. The postseason is finally here, and after a season in which it looked like the San Diego Padres might not even make it to October, they’ll be hosting the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card Round. Now, the Padres have a chance to make all of those ups and downs worth it. They’ll have home-field advantage for the series, but Game 1 will be especially important. Whoever comes out on top will be just one win away from advancing, while the losing team will have to play perfect ball over the next two games to avoid being eliminated. With that in mind, there are a few matchups that could ultimately decide who takes the first game of the series. Michael King vs. Cubs Lineup We have to start with Michael King against the Cubs’ lineup. There’s a reason Chicago is going to be such a difficult opponent for the Padres. The Cubs scored 850 runs during the regular season, the most of any team in baseball, and they have plenty of different ways to hurt an opposing pitching staff. They’re led by likely National League MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong, who posted a 40-40 campaign and dominated every facet of the game this season. But the Cubs aren’t simply a one-man offense. Seiya Suzuki, Alex Bregman and Michael Busch are all capable of flipping a game upside down with one swing, while Michael Conforto and Matt Shaw have been swinging a hot bat lately as well. There’s plenty of depth throughout the lineup, meaning King won’t have much room for mistakes. The right-hander has never started against the Cubs in his career. He’s faced them twice, but both appearances came in relief during his time with the New York Yankees. His first start against Chicago will come when the stakes are high. Pitching wins games in the postseason, and if San Diego is going to start the Wild Card Round with a victory, they’ll need a strong performance from their ace against the best offense in baseball this season. Padres Offense vs. Cubs Bullpen After that, we have to look at the Padres’ offense against Chicago’s bullpen. For as red-hot as the Cubs’ offense has been this season, their bullpen hasn’t been quite as consistent. There are some quality arms in Daniel Palencia and Ryan Zeferjahn who have been pitching well recently, but other names such as Ryan Rolison and Jacob Webb have been trending in the wrong direction. That could give the Padres an opportunity, especially if they can get into Chicago’s bullpen relatively early. Across their six regular-season matchups, the Padres scored 10 runs in 20 innings against the Cubs’ bullpen. Obviously, this isn’t exactly the same group they had earlier in the season, and regular-season results don’t necessarily carry over into October. Still, it shows that the Friars are capable of putting together productive at-bats against a middling group of relievers. The Padres have one of the biggest postseason strengths in baseball on their side when it comes to the bullpen. Their depth gives them plenty of options late in games, but that only matters if they have a lead to protect. Now, it’s on the offense to give that bullpen something to work with. Who Capitalizes With Runners in Scoring Position? The difference between winning and losing in the postseason can come down to one or two runs, and those runs often come from capitalizing when opportunities present themselves. A team can put together plenty of good at-bats, but if you leave runners stranded when you have a chance to score, you can find yourself in trouble. On the season, the Padres have the seventh-highest OPS in baseball with runners in scoring position at .768. The Cubs, meanwhile, rank 18th with a .748 OPS in those situations. That doesn’t guarantee anything in Game 1, but it does provide some context for how the two offenses have performed when they’ve had opportunities to drive in runs. If the home team is going to get the job done, they need to capitalize on those opportunities. And just as importantly, the Padres need to prevent Chicago from doing the same. That’s where having a deep bullpen could come in handy. There are plenty of arms available, meaning the Padres can be selective about who they use depending on the matchup. If a particular hitter or pocket of the Cubs’ lineup presents a difficult challenge, San Diego has the flexibility to make a move. And if one reliever gets into trouble, there are plenty of other options available to try to get out of the inning. Of course, all of this could change depending on how the starters perform. King could dominate the Cubs’ lineup and make much of this irrelevant. The Cubs could also get to him early and force the Padres to rely on their bullpen for a significant portion of the game. The same is true on the other side. But eventually, there’s a good chance both teams will find themselves in a situation where they need a big hit with runners in scoring position. In a postseason game between two teams capable of making a run, those late-game scoring chances could ultimately be the difference between winning and losing. For the Padres, the formula is fairly simple: get a strong start from King, take advantage of the Cubs’ bullpen, and capitalize when opportunities arise. If they can do that, they’ll put themselves in a good position to take the first game of the series and move one step closer to advancing. View the full article

Brooks Lee broke out in 2026. There’s no debate around that. There is, howev debate about what qualifies as a “breakout campaign,” yes, but Lee’s case is clear-cut. Over his first 712 plate appearances, Lee managed only a 71 wRC+, where 100 is average and higher is better. He was similarly dreadful in the field, netting -6 Outs Above Average (OAA) while splitting his time between second base, third base, and short. As a result, the former first-round pick was worth 0.0 Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR) over 189 games. Despite being an offensive and defensive liability in his first two seasons in the majors, Lee flashed the raw talent that led to him getting selected eighth overall in the 2022 MLB Draft and to his rapid progression through the minors, showing plus power and plate discipline. His skill set was realized in 2026, with the 25-year-old hitting .253/.300/.407 with 24 home runs and a 101 wRC+ over 631 plate appearances. The driving factor behind Lee’s offensive turnaround was the switch-hitter’s ability to produce while hitting left-handed, earning a 120 wRC+ over 424 plate appearances in 2026 (compared to a combined 69 wRC+ over 482 plate appearances the prior two seasons). He regressed from the right side of the plate (63 wRC+ in 2026, compared to a combined 77 wRC+ the prior two seasons), but that failure is less consequential because he took roughly 200 fewer plate appearances from the right-handed batter’s box—no coincidence, of course, since most pitchers are right-handed. He also significantly improved defensively, transitioning from the primary shortstop to full-time third baseman in late May. Lee went from being one of the worst shortstops in baseball to an elite third baseman, netting 6 OAA over 284 attempts. Taking everything into account, Lee generated his first positive season at the plate and in the field, netting 2.9 fWAR. Lee generated the second-most fWAR on the Twins, second only to Luke Keaschall, who earned 3.0. If we strip away all context and analyze Lee’s performance by strictly looking at the metrics, he was the Twins' second-best player. Of course, that doesn’t feel true, and it probably isn’t. Byron Buxton is better than Lee, but he was hurt for a significant portion of the season. The same goes with Ryan Jeffers. Also, Joe Ryan is a better starting pitcher than Lee is a position player. However, injuries and a late-season collapse derailed his fWAR totals, placing him below Lee. Still, Lee was almost Minnesota’s most productive player this season. Yes, the club was bad, but that doesn’t happen by accident. He had to make meaningful improvements to take such a pronounced step forward—and he did, defensively. Yet, his underlying hitting metrics suggest he was largely the same player as in 2024 and 2025, making his 20-point jump in wRC+ feel unsustainable. He had poor bat speed again. He kept chasing pitches outside the zone. He rarely walked, and he made a ton of weak contact, similar to his first two seasons in the majors. So, what changed? Why was he a dramatically better hitter in 2026 than in 2025 and 2024? Despite most of his underlying metrics remaining unimpressive, he made a monumental shift in hitting philosophy in 2026, prioritizing quality of contact over contact itself. He matured into a quality-over-quantity bat. He was able to hit strikes in the air far more often in 2026 than the prior two seasons, resulting in more doubles and home runs (49) in 2026 than 2024 and 2025 combined (40). By seasoning his raw skills with a maturing approach at the plate, Lee became the hitter Twins Territory had long yearned for him to become. Combining that with an elite defensive profile, there’s no surprise he was almost a 3-WAR player. That said, his underwhelming underlying metrics shouldn’t be ignored. If his approach reverts to his pre-2026 form, he'll regress to a sub-replacement-level bat in 2027; that is a reality we must confront. And if that happens, there's a real chance he could hit his way out of being a full-time player. Moving to third and excelling at the position raises his floor, but still, a postseason-contending team can’t play a 69 wRC+ hitter every game. Alternatively, Lee could build off his breakout 2026 campaign, playing at an All-Star-caliber level early next season, solidifying himself as a core member of the next good Twins team. Either outcome is well within reason. Yes, this level of variance is (theoretically) possible for every major-league player. We just watched Cal Raleigh regress from an MVP-caliber catcher to one of the sport’s worst hitters in one season. Yet, Lee feels like one of the most volatile position players in baseball. Again, I say "feels" because this is largely a vibes-based analysis, but his underlying metrics make these doubts reasonable. Three seasons in, I don’t know what to make of Lee. He could regress into a bench bat; continue his current slightly above-average pace; or be the AL’s starting third baseman in the 2027 All-Star Game. None of these outcomes would shock me. That's not great news for the Twins, because it means one of their most-improved players this year can't be counted on to sustain that improvement next year. But it also underscores the upside of the roster, in microcosm. View the full article

The Boston Red Sox made it official this week, naming rookie southpaw Payton Tolle the Game 1 starter for their Wild Card Round clash against the New York Yankees. While this is what I had been advocating for on recent episodes of the Talk Sox Podcast, there was a lot of debate amongst fans between which starter between Tolle or veteran Sonny Gray should get the nod to take the rubber in the opener. Manager Chad Tracy went with the rookie with the electric stuff and, judging by Tolle’s quotes from the first media availability on Monday afternoon, he’s up to the task. Since I’ve already profiled how the pitcher Tolle is squaring off against, Cam Schlittler, has fared against the Red Sox, I wanted to do the same for the hulking southpaw.. Starting with his overall season numbers, Tolle turned in 148.2 innings, a 28.4 K%, 6.6 BB%, 3.03 ERA, 3.04 FIP, and a 4.1 fWAR. He finished the season with 171 strikeouts to only 40 walks while only allowing 50 earned runs. His batting average allowed sits at an impressive .221 mark. If we shrink that down to just his starts on the road though, his numbers get even better. Road Tolle has been an absolute dog all season. He’s pitched 72 innings away from Fenway Park and has posted a 25.1 K%, 6.5 BB%, 2.50 ERA, and a 3.07 FIP. Plus, sis batting average allowed on the road shrunk down to an even more impressive .202. Tolle has been dominant all season, but he seems to shine even brighter when he’s challenging a hostile crowd. Luckily for him, the Wild Card Series takes place in the same location he first got a taste of the postseason last year. Before we dive into Tolle’s numbers against the Bronx Bombers, it needs to be said that he’s only made two starts against them this season, and both of those were at home. Still, the numbers at Fenway indicate that we’re in for an absolute gem of a start come Tuesday night. In Tolle’s first outing against the Yankees, he actually lined up against Schlittler and went almost pitch for pitch with him. Tolle tossed six innings of three-hit, one-run, 11-strikeout baseball. The lone sour mark on Tolle’ line came off a Pesky homer hit by Jazz Chisholm. Since this was the early season Red Sox, though, Tolle was handed a no-decision after the bullpen fell apart late in the game. The second time Tolle saw the Yankees, he was utterly dominant. He went seven shutout innings while walking two, striking out seven, and only allowing one hit. He was able to carry a perfect game into the sixth inning in this start, which came during the magical run of the summer. In these two starts against the Yankees, Tolle allowed a grand total of one run in 13 frames. He’s dominated Boston’s biggest rivals, and now it’s time for him to continue to do so under the bright lights of (almost) October. With those numbers in mind, it stands to reason that Payton Tolle is going to walk into Yankee Stadium on Tuesday night in primetime and be his usual dominant self. The Red Sox lost some firepower in the bullpen as the season was winding down, but Tolle has already provided quite a bit of length in his two starts against the Yankees; another deep outing could go a long way to giving Chad Tracy a full assortment of bullpen options in Games 2 and 3. It’s a lot of pressure to put on a rookie to walk into your rival’s stadium and out-duel the likely Cy Young winner, but Tolle only seems to get better when the challenge is greater. A win in this contest would set the Sox up perfectly to avenge their loss from one year ago. View the full article

To survive in October, it is clear that the San Diego Padres will not be able to do it without the consistency of their bullpen. The starting rotation is still full of questions behind Michael King, so the bullpen will have to be prepared to take on a large number of innings if the starters cannot provide enough durability. The questions become even more concerning when we remember that the Padres lost four of their five games against the Chicago Cubs during the regular season, allowing 55 runs, 18 home runs, a 9.23 ERA, and a .420 wOBA. Tm ROLE G IP ERA TBF H 2B 3B R ER HR BB IBB HBP SO AVG OBP SLG SDP RP 20 24 9.75 120 31 4 0 27 26 9 16 0 1 20 .304 .400 .608 SDP SP 6 27.2 8.78 135 34 5 0 28 27 9 16 1 3 22 .293 .393 .569 Both the starters and relievers were punished, but that trend was unusual when it comes to the Padres’ bullpen. There are several pitchers who faced the Cubs during the regular season and others who are no longer in the Padres’ bullpen and, although the samples were small, there are several interesting points to analyze. Pitcher G IP ERA TBF H R ER HR SO AVG OBP SLG wOBA O-Contact% Z-Contact% Hard% Mason Miller 3 2.2 6.75 13 5 2 2 0 2 .417 .462 .417 .396 50.0% 81.8% 30.0% JP Sears 1 4.2 11.57 25 8 7 6 3 4 .364 .440 .773 .508 83.3% 82.8% 50.0% Wandy Peralta 2 2.2 10.12 12 4 3 3 1 0 .364 .417 .636 .454 100.0% 93.8% 36.4% David Morgan 1 0.2 13.50 4 1 1 1 0 1 .333 .500 .667 .490 0.0% 83.3% 0.0% Matt Waldron 1 5 5.40 22 6 3 3 1 1 .300 .364 .500 .377 58.3% 96.4% 15.8% Griffin Canning 1 4.1 4.15 20 5 2 2 0 3 .294 .400 .412 .366 42.9% 84.0% 28.6% Kyle Hart 3 3.1 18.90 19 4 8 7 3 6 .286 .421 .929 .518 0.0% 90.0% 55.6% Walker Buehler 2 8.2 11.42 45 10 11 11 3 10 .270 .400 .568 .410 60.9% 86.7% 44.4% Ron Marinaccio 2 3.2 4.91 19 4 2 2 2 2 .267 .421 .667 .456 57.1% 92.9% 30.8% Randy Vásquez 1 5 9.00 23 5 5 5 2 4 .250 .348 .550 .385 68.8% 89.5% 43.8% Jason Adam 3 3.1 5.40 14 3 2 2 1 3 .231 .286 .462 .323 37.5% 72.7% 44.4% Bradgley Rodriguez 2 2 0.00 10 2 0 0 0 2 .222 .300 .333 .285 33.3% 75.0% 0.0% Adrián Morejón 3 3.2 2.45 15 1 1 1 0 4 .083 .267 .167 .224 62.5% 89.5% 37.5% There are several alarms here. First of all, those terrible 13 matchups in which Mason Miller was bombarded by the Cubs, allowing a .396 wOBA, with just two strikeouts and an unusual 81.8% in-zone contact rate. But this has not just been a temporary streak, as Cubs hitters are batting .313/.378/.469 with a .847 OPS in 37 plate appearances against the All-Star closer. The statistics belong to Miller’s entire history against the hitters who have been on the Cubs’ roster this year. With the exception of Michael Busch and Miguel Amaya, all the other hitters on their roster who have faced him have collected at least one hit against Miller and, for being a small sample of matchups, several have had very good results against the best reliever in baseball. That said, most of the hits have been singles, and this year the hard-hit rate is just 30%. Even so, the mere fact that several hitters are putting the ball in play so frequently against Miller leaves us with an interesting situation that we should follow. Now, let’s keep something in mind. Miller relieved in three regular-season games against the Cubs, but he pitched only 2 2/3 innings. All three of his appearances came in the ninth, and he ran into trouble in two of them. On April 27 in San Diego, he entered with a 9-5 lead and allowed two runs in the ninth. In his last appearance, on June 29, he relieved Jason Adam in the ninth, but ended up allowing a walk-off single to Seiya Suzuki for Chicago’s 3-2 victory at Wrigley Field. Miller, of course, will have to make adjustments to secure those final outs as he has done throughout this season. But, to get to the right-hander, the Padres’ bullpen will have to battle the inconsistencies of the starters to carry the game into the eighth or ninth inning. For that reason, I still believe the biggest concern for the Padres will be the matchups in the middle of the game. And, for those moments, there are some pitchers who have been too vulnerable against Cubs hitters in their careers. T Pitcher PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SO% BB% L Adrián Morejón 37 29 4 1 0 0 3 5 11 .138 .265 .172 .437 29.7% 13.5% L Wandy Peralta 66 59 11 1 0 2 6 6 11 .186 .258 .305 .563 16.7% 9.1% L Yuki Matsui 14 14 3 0 1 0 1 0 4 .214 .214 .357 .571 28.6% 0.0% R Jason Adam 44 37 8 1 0 1 2 5 11 .216 .302 .324 .627 25.0% 11.4% R Randy Vásquez 72 65 16 1 0 2 3 7 12 .246 .319 .354 .673 16.7% 9.7% R Bradgley Rodriguez 9 8 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 .250 .333 .375 .708 22.2% 11.1% R Griffin Canning 80 72 21 4 0 4 12 6 14 .292 .342 .514 .856 17.5% 7.5% R Mason Miller 37 32 10 2 0 1 4 4 9 .313 .378 .469 .847 24.3% 10.8% L Kyle Hart 27 18 7 1 0 3 9 8 7 .389 .577 .944 1.521 25.9% 29.6% The three most experienced left-handers in the bullpen—Adrián Morejón, Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui—have been among the most dominant arms against Cubs hitters. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Michael Conforto and Michael Busch are a combined 1-for-16 with eight strikeouts and four walks against Morejón, who has allowed three RBIs without a hit. If we group Peralta and Matsui with Morejón, then the Cubs have a history of just .143/.246/.286 with a .531 OPS, only three extra-base hits, 14 strikeouts and six walks. Those only two home runs were hit by Crow-Armstrong off Peralta in five at-bats. As you can see, other right-handers such as Jason Adam, Randy Vásquez and Bradgley Rodriguez can also join the matchup strategy, as they have also been consistent. Either way, the Padres will have to make decisions about their rotation and determine which pitcher would move to reinforce the bullpen. They still have enough arms to try to stop the Cubs’ potent offense, but this will be one of the toughest tests this pitching staff has faced all year long. View the full article

After a long 162-game grind, we're pretty much right back where we were one year ago. For the second consecutive season, the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres have ended up with the Nos. 4 and 5 seeds in the National League, setting them up for a best-of-three clash in the Wild Card Round. And, just like last year, the winner will get the right to travel to Milwaukee to face the top-seeded Brewers. The major difference this time around is that the Cubs will be the visiting team, with the Padres playing host. That doesn't mean too much for the North Siders (they went 43-38 away from the Friendly Confines this year), but it is a huge boon for the Friars, who went 51-30 at home compared to 40-41 on the road. In Game 1, the Padres will send their ace, Michael King, to the mound. He's been a rock-solid No. 1 starter this year, recording a 3.21 ERA over 185 innings in the regular season. His ERA estimators are less favorable (4.40 xERA, 4.13 FIP) but still indicative of a pitcher who can shut down an opposing lineup when he's on. He's a pretty unfamiliar opponent for the Cubs, who haven't seen him in the regular season since 2023 (when he was still with the Yankees). He tossed just one innings in last year's series, striking out the side in the middle of Game 3. Alex Bregman has routinely crushed King and will be a key part of the lineup on Tuesday night; in contrast, Michael Conforto has historically struggled in this matchup. Michael King vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP 1 Michael Conforto L 14 11 1 0 0 1 1 3 2 .091 .286 .364 .649 0 0 0 0 0 2 Alex Bregman R 10 8 7 2 0 0 0 2 1 .875 .900 1.125 2.025 0 0 0 0 0 3 Gabriel Arias R 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0 0 0 4 Ian Happ B 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 5 Tyrone Taylor R 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 6 Nico Hoerner R 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 7 Carson Kelly R 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000 0 0 0 0 0 8 Seiya Suzuki R 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 Provided by Stathead: Found with Stathead. See Full Results. Opposite the right-hander will be Matthew Boyd, who is starting Game 1 of the Wild Card Round for the second consecutive year. He threw a tidy gem in that outing allowing just one run over 4 1/3 innings, though the Cubs' ace will have to overcome poor matchups with Manny Machado, Ty France, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Austin Hays in order to give his team a chance tonight. Matthew Boyd vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP 1 Xander Bogaerts R 22 20 4 0 0 1 3 2 3 .200 .273 .350 .623 0 0 0 0 1 2 Manny Machado R 20 19 9 4 0 1 5 0 3 .474 .450 .842 1.292 0 1 0 0 0 3 Ty France R 13 10 4 1 0 0 3 1 1 .400 .538 .500 1.038 0 0 0 2 0 4 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 12 12 3 0 0 1 2 0 2 .250 .250 .500 .750 0 0 0 0 0 5 Freddy Fermin R 11 11 3 2 0 0 2 0 4 .273 .273 .455 .727 0 0 0 0 0 6 Jackson Merrill L 9 9 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 .222 .222 .222 .444 0 0 0 0 0 7 Austin Hays R 6 6 3 0 1 0 2 0 0 .500 .500 .833 1.333 0 0 0 0 0 8 Samad Taylor R 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 .400 .400 .400 .800 0 0 0 0 0 9 Jase Bowen R 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 10 Jake Cronenworth L 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 Provided by Stathead: Found with Stathead. See Full Results. You can find a more comprehensive breakdown of this series as a whole -- and all the numbers behind the matchup -- over on our sister site, Padres Mission. Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Round between the Cubs and Padres will begin tonight, September 29, at 9:00pm Central Standard Time. View the full article

You don't build trust by saying things. Well, not on its own, anyway. You build trust by saying things and then doing them. It conditions people to believe what you say. It demonstrates conviction. To his credit, Tom Pohlad seems to recognize this. The team's alignment of messaging and approach at the trade deadline was seemingly guided by an edict to re-establish trust and credibility. In the weeks and days leading up, general manager Jeremy Zoll was surprisingly open about Minnesota's intention to add impact talent, specifically in the bullpen. This was a stark contrast from the vague double-speak we often heard from Derek Falvey, and the team's actions at the deadline also represented a departure from Falvey's hem-hawing front offices in recent years. The Twins did exactly what they said they were going to do, assertively adding three pitchers who performed very well, although it wasn't enough to keep the club from falling out of contention. All in all, a good first step. But only a first step. Now the real work begins, coming off a second straight losing season where attendance fell to a new 25-year low. At Tuesday's season-ending press conference at Target Field, Pohlad called this offseason "another opportunity for us to put action to words" and adding "I’m really excited about the month ahead." There's little that can happen from a team-building standpoint before the World Series ends, so I assume what Pohlad was really referencing is the one-month window in November where the offseason is underway, before a CBA lockout shutdown commences at the start of December. If the Twins want to demonstrate some genuine initiative, they need to strike with at least one big move during what is anticipated to be an active stretch of Hot Stove action. Pohlad insisted, in no uncertain terms, that's the plan. "We are going to be aggressive when free agency starts," he told reporters. Follow through on that, and he'll have another drop in the trust bucket. As that bucket fills, rancor toward ownership subsides and fans can once again start to buy in. When asked about his expectations for payroll, Pohlad shied away from specifics but ended with some remarks I find interesting: “Let me just say, I have been very vocal about what our ambitions are. I have been vocal, and to some degree critical, of where we’ve been. And so you can take some comfort in the fact that, with payroll, wherever we land is cognizant of both those things and will be commensurate with what we’re trying to accomplish.” I'm not sure anyone is going to take comfort in words. Not yet. The Twins have spent too many years conditioning fans to wait for the catch, the qualifier or the retreat. Pohlad has correctly identified that rebuilding trust requires breaking that cycle, and the trade deadline offered a promising start. Now comes a much bigger test. If the Twins are truly ambitious about restoring credibility and building a winner, November presents their first real opportunity to prove it. Pohlad has said they will be aggressive. He has said payroll will reflect their ambitions. At this particular moment, matching those words with action would carry weight well beyond whatever player they acquire or dollars they spend. It would give fans another reason to believe that, when this version of Twins ownership tells them something, they can actually trust it. View the full article

A disappointing season is resulting in at least one change on the MLB coach staff for the Kansas City Royals. Alec Zumwalt will not return as the Royals' hitting coach, although he remains in the system as the senior director of hitting performance, according to a report Tuesday by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The Royals finished last in the AL Central at 69-93, the third-worst in the AL and fifth-worst in MLB. Hitters had a mixed bag in their performance this year. The team had the eighth-best batting average in MLB at .247, ranked 17th in on-base percentage (.316) and 16th in OPS (.718). Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. may get some down-ballot AL MVP votes after a .281/.359/.441 slash line with 15 homers, 54 RBIs and 45 stolen bases. Right fielder Jac Caglianone also thrived in his first full MLB season, putting up a .289/.340/.494 slash line with 23 homers and 77 RBIs. But first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino (.249/.333/.428), who dealt with hamate bone surgery that hindered his performance, and key offseason acquisition Isaac Collins (.213/.320/.321), especially, were among the key underperformers. View the full article

Cam Schlittler’s four-seamer averages 98 mph, almost four miles per hour faster than your typical right-handed pitcher. His 12-6 curveball has maxed out at 90.2 mph this year. In other words, the 6’6” Walpole native throws the ball ridiculously hard. Most analysts will tell you that his large frame gives him a biomechanics advantage to touch triple-digit velocity. I’m convinced some of it is fueled by his perpetual RBF. Schlittler isn’t the only high-octane Yankees pitcher the Boston Red Sox are going to see in the Wild Card Round. For instance, David Bednar anchors New York’s bullpen with a rising four-seamer (18” IVB) that averages 96.1 mph. So, it's probably pertinent to ask: How has the team fared against velocity this season? Mickey Gasper and Eli White feasted on hard pitches this year, posting OPS marks of 1.241 and .971, respectively, against premium velocity. Unfortunately, both players will miss the postseason. Gasper suffered from a right biceps strain, and White tore a ligament in his right foot on the center field garage door at Fenway. Jahmai Jones, who isn’t on the injured list, has handled 95+ just as well with a .977 OPS. Surprisingly, Roman Anthony .373 OPS ranks last among Red Sox batters. This is a significant drop from his .820 last year. Then there’s the weather. Over the Wild Card Series, the Bronx is expected to see a temperature range between 59 degrees and 67 degrees in the evening. As we get further into the week, the temperature starts creeping up. Tuesday night is expected to be the coldest game. If the series extends to Game 3, Thursday night’s game will be the warmest. Image courtesy of the National Weather Service There’s a ton of existing research on how weather impacts baseball and I’m not going to get into the weeds of humidity/temperature affecting pitch movement here. Instead, I want to look at something simpler: the Red Sox’s record across different temperature groups. During the Angels series earlier this month, I theorized that the team played worse in colder temperatures. I had forgotten about it until the Guardians series last week, so I pulled the data. I grouped every game this season by first-pitch temperature: Cold (59°F and below), Mild (60 to 74°F), and Warm (75°F and up). Temperature Bucket G W L Win% Run Diff RS RA Avg Temp Cold (59°F and below) 28 14 14 .500 +25 4.11 3.21 52.3°F Mild (60-74°F) 55 21 34 .382 -57 3.38 4.42 69.0°F Warm (75+°F) 79 52 27 .658 +110 4.91 3.52 81.5°F The Red Sox’s record didn’t support my theory. The “Cold” bucket consisted of 28 games, the fewest of the three and they played .500 ball with a +25 run differential in those games. Unsurprisingly, the team posted a .658 winning percentage and a +110 run differential in the “Warm” bucket, thanks in large part to the team’s historic 30-5 stretch in the middle of the summer. The “Mild” bucket contained the worst results: a .382 winning percentage and a negative run differential of -57. Back to the forecast, two of three games in the Wild Card Series land squarely in the “Mild” range, where they went 21-34. If the Red Sox want to advance to the division series, they need to win in the weather that’s plagued them all year. The Red Sox enter the first round of the playoffs as underdogs with velocity and weather working against them. They’ll face Schlittler’s triple-threat fastball mix tonight, sans Gasper and White. Fortunately, Schlittler is just one pitcher. As @Alex Mayes and I talked about on this week's Talk Sox podcast episode, once they get past Schlittler, Max Fried and a washed-up Gerrit Cole aren’t nearly as imposing. Anything can happen in the playoffs, and the Red Sox have thrived on chaos all season. body { background: #fff; color: #111; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; padding: 24px; } View the full article

Manny Machado’s last two postseasons as a whole have been disappointing. In 40 plate appearances, he hit .158/.200/.342 with just a 51 wRC+ and a .542 OPS. Even so, he has had a couple of key moments, such as the two-run double that put the San Diego Padres ahead 3-1 in the second inning of Game 2 of the 2024 Wild Card Series against the Braves, and the two-run home run that increased the lead to 3-0 over the Cubs in the fifth inning of Game 2 of last year’s Wild Card Series. His best year in the playoffs since arriving in San Diego was in 2022, when he unleashed his power and hit four home runs and scored seven runs in 12 games. Two of those home runs were key to driving the Padres forward. First, the home run against Clayton Kershaw that opened Game 2 of the NLDS, in a series the Padres ended up winning 3-1 over the Dodgers in four games. Then, in the NLCS, he hit a solo home run in the first inning of Game 4 against the Phillies, which sparked a four-run rally after two outs. The four home runs Machado hit in that 2022 playoff run tied the franchise record for a single postseason, and his seven extra-base hits were the most in Padres history for a single year in the playoffs. However, over 51 postseason games, Machado has fallen short of expectations, producing a .209/.259/.423 offensive line, with a .682 OPS and an 85 wRC+. Regarding his recent inconsistencies, there are several interesting trends that we should explore. Here we have one key point: His combined performance over the final month of the regular season, compared to his results in the postseason. Season PA O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% BB% K% Hard% AVG OBP SLG OPS wRC+ SEP/OCT (2024-2025) 291 28.9% 70.1% 51.7% 46.6% 84.0% 7.6% 22.7% 37.9% .230 .285 .457 .742 105 POSTSEASON (2024-2025) 40 39.8% 77.6% 57.3% 51.4% 81.4% 5.0% 30.0% 50.0% .158 .200 .342 .542 51 The first thing that catches my attention is how his aggressiveness at the plate spikes, taking many more swings and chasing more pitches outside the zone. This, without a doubt, is the fundamental part that has led him to strike out much more frequently, but his 12.1 percentage-point improvement in Hard% also stands out. His ground-ball rate also drops, so most of the balls put in play remain fly balls, but his averages show that those hard-hit balls have not made the difference. His slugging has seen a .115-point drop and OPS a .200 drop, which obviously includes his problems with taking walks and getting on base. Although there is nothing closer to the version of Machado we will see in the playoffs than the trends from his final month, it is worth highlighting that his swing was productive during the regular season against Cubs pitching. In 21 plate appearances, he produced a .300/.333/.600 offensive line with a 156 wRC+. His hard contact rate was 46.7% and that sounds great, but what is most concerning here is that an extreme pull hitter like the third baseman recorded a 26.7 Pull% rate, the lowest among Padres hitters with at least 20 plate appearances against Chicago. Machado chased 45.7% of the pitches against Cubs pitchers and, at times, what could be worse, made contact on 50.0% of his swings outside the zone. In the end, as we have seen here, that contact produced limited impact for the Friars. As you can see here, the Cubs have precisely marked where they want to pitch to the All-Star. Most of the pitches were outside the strike zone, well away, inside and outside in the lower part of the zone, and the lowest percentage, just 1.3%, has been on pitches middle-middle. In other words, his pitch selection will be key this series, as he will need a balance between being aggressive and much more patient, since in October every pitch and every swing decision can open up a range of possibilities. The Cubs will almost certainly draw up a similar strategy again. Perhaps this statistic explains it all: in 51 postseason games and 218 plate appearances, Manny has recorded just one game with two or more walks, when he received three walks in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Dodgers in 2022. His career BB/K rate has been 0.47, with 1,576 strikeouts and 739 walks, but in the postseason, it drops to 0.23. Plate discipline has been an important part of his offensive problems in the playoffs and has limited his ability to contribute as much as has been expected of him. Many times under the pressure of October, drawing a walk can become a key plate appearance, rather than failing in the attempt to try to solve everything with one swing. For Machado, deciding when to cross that thin line inside the batter’s box could lead to big results for the Padres this postseason. View the full article

In his annual end-of-season press conference, Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix discusses experimental pitcher usage, hitting development, the future of Miami's coaching staff and much more.View the full article