DiamondCentric

Four runs has always been a fun barometer in baseball. When a team scores four runs, they should expect to win the game. The same is true in reverse: keeping an opponent below four runs is usually a strong indicator of victory. For most of the history of the game, teams who score exactly four runs in a contest have hovered around a .500 record, but it sometimes bobs higher and hardly ever dips lower. If you score any more than four, you can start writing the 'W' into the standings. Reaching four runs (or preventing an opponent from reaching that mark) gives us a simple way of measuring the consistency of a team's ability to score and prevent runs. For example, the Brewers are 86-15 this season when scoring four or more runs, an 85% win rate. They are 85-14 when allowing fewer than four runs, an 84% win rate. Those numbers fluctuate depending on the quality of the team and its strengths. The Brewers are built around minimizing weak points, and when they score four runs or allow fewer than four, they typically make it difficult for their opponents to find a way back into the game. The Brewers have won 63% of their games in 2026. When they reach either of the four-run markers above, that win rate jumps to around 85%. In other words, reaching one of those benchmarks has been associated with a dramatically higher likelihood of victory for Milwaukee. So, which teams have been the most successful by these barometers in 2026? Scoring Four Or More Runs The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs are tied for the teams that have most frequently scored four or more runs this season. Both reached the mark 101 times, doing so in 62% of their games. The Cubs are widely regarded as one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball, led by 2026 MVP-to-be Pete Crow-Armstrong, but when it comes to the consistency of their offensive output, the two teams have been remarkably similar. The Cubs (with their far worse pitching) only won 75% of the games in which they scored four or more, though. (This week, in getting bumrushed from baseball's Oktoberfest, they neither scored four in a game nor held the Padres below four in either contest.) Home-field advantage has been particularly important for the Brewers. They've scored four or more runs 54 times at The Ueck, a total surpassed only by the A's and tied by the team from near Atlanta. That rate of reaching four runs is (perhaps unsurprisingly) even higher than their overall rate. Among playoff teams, here is how each team ranks in scoring four or more runs this season: Team Total Times Scoring 4 or More Runs Milwaukee Brewers 101 Chicago Cubs 101 Los Angeles Dodgers 99 Atlanta Braves 98 Chicago White Sox 93 Tampa Bay Rays 92 Philadelphia Phillies 92 New York Yankees 91 San Diego Padres 91 Cleveland Guardians 89 Boston Red Sox 88 Houston Astros 86 There's a clear distinction between the top four teams (all in the National League) and the rest of the pack. The Phillies certainly stand out, although the Padres are perhaps slightly blurred, given their discrepancy in the first and second halves of the season; they're more dangerous than their raw number implies. Who Prevents A Team Scoring Four Runs Most Often? That would be the Atlantas. Fueled by strong pitching performances (particularly at home in Truist Park), they've allowed four or more runs on just 68 occasions this season. The Brewers and the New York Yankees are tied for second, having allowed four or more runs in just 73 games, or 45% of their total games. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox are close behind at 75, before another drop-off to the rest of the field. Looking at the full list also reveals some interesting cases. The Diamondbacks and Tigers performed well in this category, and we'll return to that when looking at the overall totals. There is a case to be made that this measure is highly indicative of regular-season success. If we isolate the results to playoff teams once again: Team Total Occasions Team Allowed 4+ Runs Atlanta Braves 68 Milwaukee Brewers 73 New York Yankees 73 Los Angeles Dodgers 75 Boston Red Sox 75 Tampa Bay Rays 79 Cleveland Guardians 79 San Diego Padres 84 Chicago Cubs 87 Houston Astros 90 Chicago White Sox 91 Philadelphia Phillies 91 There are some notable names here, too. The Phillies have had Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo in their rotation, all pitchers who would receive All-Star consideration (with Wheeler's eligibility being the caveat), alongside Jhoan Duran as their closer. Despite the quality at the top of the rotation and at the back of the bullpen, however, Philadelphia has struggled to consistently prevent opponents from reaching four runs, highlighting the problems elsewhere on the pitching staff (and in their defense). The White Sox provide the opposite example. Their offense has appeared remarkably consistent, but they have struggled mightily to replicate that performance on the pitching side. If anything, one might have expected them to have allowed that many even more often, and/or lost more games because of their faulty pitching. When they need to, though, they have ways to clamp down on opposing lineups. Overall, this broadly matches the eye test. If you asked most clubs which rotations and bullpens they would fear most, some combination of the Brewers, Yankees and Dodgers would likely appear on plenty of lists. Overall: Run Scoring vs Run Prevention Putting the two measures together creates an intriguing picture. Who consistently performs at a game-winning level in both run scoring and run prevention? The playoffs are obviously a small-sample environment, and a team's ability to get hot at the right time can completely change the outcome of a short series. But the ability to produce runs and prevent them consistently over 162 games should provide a useful indication of which teams have the strongest underlying profiles heading into October. Once again, there is a slight surprise at the top: Team 4-Run Games Score Atlanta Braves 30 Milwaukee Brewers 28 Los Angeles Dodgers 24 New York Yankees 18 Chicago Cubs 14 Tampa Bay Rays 13 Boston Red Sox 13 Cleveland Guardians 10 San Diego Padres 7 Chicago White Sox 2 Philadelphia Phillies 1 Houston Astros -4 This figure is calculated by subtracting the number of games in which a team allowed four or more runs from the number of games in which it scored four or more. There are some anomalies. Atlanta rocketed off to an incredible start this season, then tapered off, while the Padres have done almost the reverse. But overall, the measure provides a useful picture of which teams have most consistently reached a winning level on either side of the ball. The Brewers follow the crew from the Atlanta suburbs, with a notable (if not enormous) gap to the Dodgers behind them. After that comes another drop-off, followed by some real stragglers. The White Sox actually showed up offensively, which illustrates just how detrimental their pitching performances have been. Meanwhile, some of the more "hot-and-cold" teams, such as the Cubs, Red Sox, Guardians and Padres, fill the middle of the table. The Brewers Do Not Require Streakiness To Win Playoff Series The Brewers are no longer an offense requiring a hot streak from one or two offensive players to score runs in the postseason. With a variety of threats, simply not going cold will place the best team in baseball in a strong position to win games in October. A common perception of the Brewers is that they score runs primarily through pressure, forcing mistakes and capitalizing when opponents fall behind. The numbers suggest a much more complete offensive picture. Milwaukee has produced four or more runs more consistently than any other team in baseball this season, while also ranking second in the frequency with which it prevents opponents from reaching four runs. They aren't simply relying on one avenue to produce offense, nor are they surviving purely because of their pitching. They have consistently put themselves in games where either their offense reaches a winning-level threshold, or their pitching keeps the opposition below it. In both measures, they sit ahead of the vaunted Dodgers. Streakiness is great in the playoffs. Getting hot matters. Getting hot on top of a stable foundation is even more dangerous. The Brewers have spent 162 games proving that foundation exists. Now, they get to find out whether it travels to October. View the full article

On Wednesday afternoon, the Kansas City Royals held their end-of-year press conference. As in past seasons, President of Baseball Operations JJ Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro were front and center. Below is the full presser. In this post, we will share the five most important quotes from Picollo and Quatraro during the press conference, and what they could mean for the Royals this offseason. "We feel confident in Marcus Thames and Connor Dawson to lead our hitting direction moving forward." -Picollo One of the major changes announced in the press conference was that the Royals would be moving on from lead hitting coach Alec Zumwalt this offseason. On Tuesday, MLB Insider Ken Rosenthal reported that Zumwalt would be reassigned within the organization. Zumwalt will return to his role as Senior Director of Hitting Performance, a role he held before becoming hitting coach in May of 2022 with the Royals (replacing Terry Bradshaw). According to Picollo, the move wasn't due to Zumwalt's performance, but to the team's confidence in assistant hitting coaches Dawson and Thames moving forward. Both coaches replaced Keoni DeRenne and Joe Dillon last offseason, and the Royals offense improved from ranking 24th in wRC+ in 2025 (93) to 19th this season (98). Rumors suggested Dawson and Thames took on greater responsibilities during the season, likely in preparation for Zumwalt's eventual move back to Minor League player development. Zumwalt found success in this role with former colleague Drew Saylor, but Saylor struggled solo in the Director position after Zumwalt moved up to the Majors. The position has remained vacant for the past year, suggesting the Royals may have been eyeing Zumwalt to return regardless of how the team fared offensively. Picollo praised Zumwalt's work and noted that his tenure as hitting coach was never meant to be long-term. The Royals said they would replace Zumwalt on the staff. However, Thames or Dawson will likely get the top job, and Zumwalt's replacement will likely take on an assistant role on staff. "When you look back at the sheer volume of time missed across both the pitching staff and position players, we have to evaluate everything—from our daily routines to how we handle rehab progressions." -Picollo Another big news item was that the Royals would change their behavioral and training staff this offseason. That includes parting ways with head trainer Kyle Turner, assistant athletic trainer Chris Delucia, and Major League rehab coordinator Jeff Blum. Injuries were just the tip of the iceberg for the Royals' issues this season. After all, injuries are part of the game and affect every MLB team in one form or another. However, Kansas City seemed to struggle to make the right decisions about putting players on the IL and letting them "play through" minor setbacks. They made peculiar decisions with players like Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr., and Jac Caglianone by not putting them on the IL right away. That not only prevented them from fully rehabbing, but also left the Royals short-handed for long stretches. Kansas City also reassigned Melissa Lambert, Director of Behavioral Science and Major League Mental Performance, to the Minor Leagues. Lambert was the first female Royals staff member to sit in the dugout. While her hiring got a lot of fanfare, one has to wonder whether player inconsistency and "blow-ups" from key young stars (like Garcia and Caglianone) contributed to the Royals going in a different direction. Quatraro's quote about Cole Ragans and his return date also showed that Royals management didn't have the utmost confidence in the training staff's work. The Royals have been decimated by injuries the past two years. Hopefully, new faces and minds on staff can help get them back on the right track in preparation and recovery. "Upgrading left field and center field, along with adding right-handed offense, is a major priority for us this offseason." -Picollo The Royals noted they had a strong core in place and that Caglianone would play alongside Vinnie Pasquantino next season, with Cags at right and Vinnie at first base. That said, they were noncommittal about setting positions at left and center field next season, suggesting they may be looking to move on from Kyle Isbel and Isaac Collins in 2027. Isbel has long been known for his defense rather than his bat. That said, he still hit .255 with a .654 OPS in 409 PA last season. That's more than serviceable for a player who was a Gold Glove finalist in 2025. Unfortunately, a foot injury forced Isbel to take a step back in both categories this year. He only hit .224 with a .591 OPS, and his Def went from 7.7 in 2025 to 2.5 in 2026. While he was still an above-average defender, he wasn't as elite as he was last year. That small regression tanks his value, especially since his offensive profile is paltry, as illustrated in the Stacast Percentiles profile below. As for Collins, he struggled in his second full season in the Majors, his first in Kansas City. After hitting .263 with a .779 OPS in 441 plate appearances with the Brewers last year, the Royals acquired Collins to be a regular part of the lineup in 2026. Unfortunately, he regressed with the Royals, hitting .213 with a .641 OPS in 519 plate appearances. He also struggled defensively, posting a -4.0 Def and 0.1 fWAR. Lastly, his Statcast percentiles were mixed. On one end, he didn't chase or whiff much, which is why the Royals acquired him. However, he didn't offer much in exit velocity and hard-hit rate, which made him a bit of a drain as a corner outfielder. The Royals tend to be shy about saying which positions are "open" in a given offseason. However, Picollo was pretty transparent about upgrading the LF and CF positions this offseason. That likely means Isbel and Collins will be utility players or minor-league players, especially if Kansas City can acquire some big-name outfield sluggers via trade or free agency (Seiya Suzuki? Taylor Ward?). "Addressing the bullpen is a top priority—we don't really have a set, potential closer right now." -Picollo It's no secret that the Royals bullpen was terrible in 2026 and heavily contributed to their 69-93 this season. Picollo pointed to losing Carlos Estevez for the season after just the second game and to some of their "expected" contributors sorely disappointing (Lucas Erceg and Matt Strahm). However, the Royals did give arms like Nate Pearson and Steven Cruz opportunities in the ninth inning after the Trade Deadline. And while those two showed flashes, neither of them did enough to snatch up the closer's spot. Cruz posted a 4.30 ERA in 58.2 IP and saved eight games. However, his FIP was high at 5.16, and he struggled mightily with the long ball (23.7% HR/FB%). Like many Royals relievers, Cruz struggled to generate chase (O-Swing%), even though his stuff profile was solid, TJ Stats noted. As for Pearson, he got off to a fast start with the Royals initially. Overall, he saved three games and had six holds for the Royals in 26 IP. However, he struggled with control, as evidenced by a 6th percentile BB%, 9th percentile CSW%, and 4th percentile Strike%. The former Blue Jays top prospect certainly demonstrated stuff in Kansas City. Unfortunately, his control and command didn't quite iron out, as shown in his TJ Stuff+ summary profile below. Pearson and Cruz showed that they can be a part of this Royals bullpen in 2027. That said, they likely will have low- to medium-leverage roles rather than high-leverage ones, as was the case in August and September for both pitchers. "Navigating early-season workloads and factors like player involvement in the World Baseball Classic created challenges in getting off to the start we wanted." -Picollo The Royals got off to a slow start in 2026 that seemed to kill momentum before it could build. They went 12-19 in March and April and had a run differential of -22. From there, they had only one winning month: a 16-11 in August, when the season was well out of hand. It was interesting that Picollo pointed to the WBC as an issue in getting ready for the season, and that could've contributed to their slow start. The Royals had roughly seven players participate in the WBC, with Garcia earning MVP honors. However, because so many players participated (and their teams had deep runs), the Royals didn't have much time together in Spring Training. According to Picollo, that hurt chemistry and explains why Kansas City didn't come out hot at the start of the season. The WBC grind also seemed to affect Garcia, Salvador Perez, Seth Lugo, Luinder Avila, and Pasquantino (less so with Michael Wacha and Caglianone). This isn't the first time the WBC has affected the Royals during the season. In 2023, the Royals went 56-106 and had slow starts from Witt and Brady Singer because they played with Team USA in the WBC (and only sparingly). So, in the last two WBC seasons, the Royals have finished in the basement of the AL Central. That said, the Royals did have a 30-win turnaround in 2024, the year after the WBC. Perhaps the Royals could see another 30-win turnaround in 2027? Kansas City fans would accept a 99-win season, especially since a record that strong would likely net the Royals an AL Central division crown in 2027 and a first-round bye in the postseason. View the full article

The Twins approached the 2026 season with a mess of a bullpen, and one of the big storylines in spring training was how they planned to reinforce the group internally as the season unfolded. It made sense, at the time, that Connor Prielipp (who maxed out at 82 innings in 2025 after an injury-riddled career and had elite raw stuff) would be a top candidate to move to the bullpen. That switch never happened. Some 162 games later, Prielipp has the Twins feeling thankful that they stuck with him in the starting rotation. Health was a major factor coming into 2026. The Twins took him in the second round of the 2022 MLB Draft (when he was coming off Tommy John surgery), and Prielipp was only able to post 30 innings between 2023 and 2024 due to elbow issues. His 82 innings in 2025 were encouraging, but nowhere near enough to make him feel reliable as a full-season starter. Prielipp finished 2026 with just under 145 innings pitched between Triple-A and the major leagues. His innings were managed carefully at times, and the Twins did sometimes give him extra days' rest and skip the occasional start. Still, he was available for an injury-ravaged MLB rotation all the way to the end of the season. Regardless of performance, Prielipp staying healthy is one of the most positive developments of the Twins’ 2026 season. Speaking of performance, there was plenty of reason to be excited for Prielipp’s future in the rotation. His 4.87 ERA may not be the most exciting, but his peripherals suggest room for regression to an ERA in the high 3s. If he can get a bit luckier stranding runners on base and improve a bit against hitters the third time through the order, his baseline numbers could improve significantly. Prielipp flashed his raw stuff plenty often in his debut season. His 23.9% strikeout rate was perfectly acceptable, driven by his slider and curveball, both of which posted whiff rates above 30%. The curveball, in particular, is something to watch in 2027, as he began increasing its usage to the point that it was his secondary weapon in September, and was absolutely dominant. Perhaps the most encouraging thing to tie Prielipp’s 2026 season together was how he finished. He looked to have hit his ceiling in August, as he blew past his career-high innings and posted an ERA over 7.00. Instead of shutting him down, the Twins sent him back out in September, and he posted a 2.36 ERA. He had a slight drop in fastball velocity, but was still averaging a strong 95.5 MPH on the heater at the end of the season. Connor Prielipp's 2026 season was a major win for the organization. His draft selection was always a gamble, and looked like a potential loss after his first few years. Now, he looks like a lock for the 2027 starting rotation, a major development for an organization lacking pitching depth and ravaged by pitching injuries. He has the stuff to be one of the best arms the Twins have developed in some time. After another disappointing Twins season, it’s important to note the positive developments the team came away with. Prielipp is at the very top of that list. View the full article

It wasn’t a great season for the Toronto Blue Jays’ starters. The injury bug ran rampant through the staff. José Berríos and Bowden Francis missed all season; Shane Bieber made only 11 starts; and Cody Ponce tore his ACL 2 1/3 innings into his first start. We saw Patrick Corbin and Jameson Taillon be acquired at different points in the season, but Corbin made only 19 appearances (15 starts), and Taillon made three starts. The Blue Jays also acquired Spencer Arrighetti, but they used him mainly as a bulk-inning eater after an opener, with five of his seven appearances coming out of the bullpen. With so many starters spending time on the IL, relievers made 30 starts. This was apparent by the Blue Jays finishing 27th in innings from their starting pitchers. The rotation ranked around the middle of the pack among MLB teams, finishing 14th in ERA (4.22), 13th in FIP (4.02), 17th in strikeouts (742), and 13th in fWAR (11.3). However, they allowed the sixth-lowest batting average (.235) and the third-fewest home runs (93). With so many injuries and poor performances, it wasn’t easy to find standout players. The number one spot was an obvious choice, but after that, it was a toss-up. Braydon Fisher was by far the team's best opener. He threw 11 1/3 innings as a starter, posting a 0.79 ERA, an 11:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 3.81 FIP. He also held batters to a 0.86 batting average. Here are the starting pitchers who led the team this season. Spoiler alert: it’s not pretty. Honorable Mentions Shane Bieber 2026 Stats: 5-2, 55 2/3 IP, 4.37 ERA, 44 SO, 24 BB, 1.42 WHIP, 5.15 FIP Bieber began the season on the injured list due to right elbow inflammation. He returned in late June but made only 11 starts before getting shut down with a right teres major injury. There were hopes he could return late if a postseason trip were within reach after a side session on September 19. However, the Blue Jays were eliminated a few days later. The injuries could have contributed to one of the worst seasons of Bieber’s nine-year career. His 18.2 percent strikeout rate, 9.9 percent walk rate, WHIP, and FIP were the worst of his career. The righty’s ERA was only his second-highest, but he had a 5.97 expected ERA, ranking in the bottom two percent of all MLB pitchers. Max Scherzer 2026 Stats: 4-9, 84 2/3 IP, 5.74 ERA, 68 SO, 35 BB, 1.33 WHIP, 5.11 FIP Max Scherzer was a tale of two halves. He was atrocious in the first half of the season, posting a 10.23 ERA over 22 innings, but his 4.16 second-half ERA over 62 2/3 innings would have put him in the top three if it were a full-season performance. Injuries were a major issue for the 42-year-old this season. Mad Max’s first trip to the 15-day injured list came on April 27 because of right forearm tightness and left ankle inflammation. He returned on June 10 but made only one start before returning to the IL with back spasms. This time, he returned on July 27 and finished the season as a reliable contributor. This included an emotional finale, in which Scherzer threw seven innings of one-run ball while striking out seven. If this were the righty's final season, he would finish ninth on the career strikeout list with 3,557. No. 3 Trey Yesavage 2026 Stats: 5-6, 97 2/3 IP, 3.69 ERA, 97 SO, 47 BB, 1.14 WHIP, 4.22 FIP Trey Yesavage had massive hype after his success in last season’s postseason. However, a right shoulder impingement cost the righty the start of the season. He returned April 28 and had a solid year. His season only lasted a few months, though, as he underwent surgery on August 11 to repair a meniscus tear in his left knee. The rookie returned to make two starts before the season ended, and he's healthy heading into the offseason. Yesavage had a respectable rookie season, posting a 24.2 percentage strikeout rate, but the 11.7 percent walk rate was higher than preferred. His strikeout rate was down from what he showed in his brief debut last season and in the minors, so increasing the whiffs will be a focus this offseason. The righty has a four-seam fastball, nasty splitter, and slider in his pitch arsenal. To take the next step in his development, Yesavage will work this offseason on adding a curveball or a two-seam fastball. Adding another pitch will help keep opposing hitters off balance next season. This should lead to more strikeouts, especially if he can develop a pitch with as much movement as his splitter and slider, both of which averaged 30 inches of drop. No. 2 Kevin Gausman 2026 Stats: 5-10, 127 1/3 IP, 4.38 ERA, 127 SO, 35 BB, 1.29 WHIP, 3.98 FIP Despite being traded to the Chicago Cubs at the deadline, Kevin Gausman pitched the second-most innings in the Blue Jays’ starting rotation. He and Yesavage were a coin flip for the No. 2 and 3 spots, but with 30 more innings, Gausman provided more production for the Blue Jays throughout the season. His 23.5 percent strikeout rate was his second-lowest since 2019. However, he upped that to 27.1 percent with the Cubs. His 2.6 fWAR with Toronto also outperformed Yesavage’s 1.3. It was a decent season for the veteran, which could lead to a reunion next season if he doesn’t retire. If Gausman returns, it’d be a win-win for the Blue Jays. They need a veteran starter, and they got an everyday center fielder in Brett Bateman as part of the trade package they received from Chicago at the deadline. No. 1 Dylan Cease 2026 Stats: 11-6, 169 IP, 2.40 ERA, 238 SO, 78 BB, 1.10 WHIP, 2.56 FIP Dylan Cease proved to be a grand-slam offseason signing for the Blue Jays. His 34.9 percent strikeout rate was the best rate of his eight-year career. However, his 11.4 percent walk rate was the second-highest of his career. The high walk rate was expected, but not this high. More walks pushed Cease’s pitch count up quickly, leading to fewer innings per game, resulting in him going six or more innings in only 15 of his 29 starts. Cease’s most notable game this season was a near no-hitter. On July 8, against the San Francisco Giants, a perfect game was ruined in the fifth inning by a walk to Willy Adames. However, his no-hitter lasted into the ninth inning, until Heliot Ramos led off the frame with a single. Cease was then removed after 118 pitches. The Blue Jays have only had one no-hitter in their history books, by Dave Stieb in 1990. The team has never had a perfect game. The righty also threw a complete-game, one-hitter on July 25 against the Boston Red Sox. He had a perfect game going into the fifth inning before issuing a walk to Caleb Durbin. Cease would lose his no-hitter chance the next inning after a leadoff double to Andruw Monasterio. He threw a career-high 120 pitches in his fourth career complete game. It was also the first complete-game one-hitter in Blue Jays history since 2010, when Shaun Marcum did it against the Oakland Athletics. The hit in that game was a solo home run by Conor Jackson. Cease will lead a strong rotation next season with Yesavage and José Soriano. The question is who will fill the remaining two spots. Berríos, Francis, and Ponce could be healthy enough to contribute, but the Blue Jays could also elect to bring back Bieber or Gausman to build depth. We saw the issues with a lack of depth this season, likely forcing the team to be aggressive in free agency as well. Whichever route Toronto chooses, the pieces in place should provide the foundation for an outstanding rotation. View the full article

A journeyman for his baseball career, Jason Wood had gone seven years in between Major League Baseball appearances when he was called up by the Florida Marlins late in the 2006 season. On this day 20 years ago, he had perhaps his most memorable moment with the club. In the season finale against the Philadelphia Phillies, Wood ended a marathon game with the walk-off hit. His 11th-inning single lifted Florida to a 3-2 win. Neither team had scored since the seventh inning as the Oct. 1, 2006 contest at Dolphins Stadium went to the 11th. After the Marlins had stranded a runner in each of the previous four innings, Matt Herges worked a second straight scoreless inning out of the Florida bullpen to give his team a chance to walk it off. Fabio Castro had worked a scoreless 10th for Philadelphia, but the 11th proved to be much more arduous. Chris Aguila opened the Florida 11th with a single. Castro then hit Alfredo Amézaga before walking catcher Matt Treanor on five pitches. With the bases loaded and nobody out, Castro was able to get Paul Hoover to ground into a fielder’s choice as the lead runner was gunned down at home. Wood had entered the game for Florida in the sixth inning, replacing Miguel Cabrera. 0-for-3 to that point, Wood worked the count to 2-2 before rolling one into the hole between shortstop and third base. Philadelphia’s Danny Sandoval was able to get a glove on the ball but had no play. Amézaga scored to give the Marlins the walk-off victory. It was Amézaga’s second run of the game. He scored on a Treanor single in the second to get the scoring started. After Sandoval’s RBI single tied the game in the fourth, Florida went back in front on a solo home run by Dan Uggla in the sixth. Ryan Howard tied the game with an RBI single a half-inning later. Uggla, Aguila and Wes Helms each finished with two hits for the Marlins. Then 36 years old, Wood would play in just 153 games in parts of five seasons in the big leagues. Despite being well into his 30s when he made his debut for the Fish, Wood was productive in limited action in 2006, going 6-for-13. His final hit from that season sent the Marlins out on a high note on this day two decades ago. View the full article

Pete Crow-Armstrong got his chance. It wasn't just an opportunity to set the tone right off the bat, or a 1-in-100 shot at robbing a home run as he flung himself against the wall. In the top of the third inning of Wednesday night's Game 2 in the National League Wild Card Series, Crow-Armstrong stepped to the plate against a struggling Nick Pivetta, with the tying runs on base. The San Diego Padres led 2-0, but one swing by Crow-Armstrong could have flipped the scoreboard. At the very least, a single would have moved that tying tally into scoring position, and it probably would have truly dislodged a snowball, sending it racing down the hill and giving the Cubs a chance to crush the Padres with a sudden avalanche of runs. Instead, Crow-Armstrong popped out almost directly to the second-base bag. That was the moment when the final rush of air left the lungs of the wounded creature that was the 2026 Cubs. Its valiant fight was over—lost. For the soon-to-be-named National League MVP, it was anything but a fitting ending to a season almost overflowing with heroics. As impressive as the stats are, the fun facts about Crow-Armstrong's power and speed have felt a bit empty, because they didn't properly capture how great he was when it mattered most. Crow-Armstrong led the league in Championship Win Probability Added this year, because he was clutch within games and late in the vicious fight for Wild Card positioning, as well as being great in a day-to-day, consistent way. Cruelly, though, baseball doesn't pretend to be its full-season self once the playoffs begin. In the six-team playoff format, you're lucky if your superstar gets even one real chance to tilt a game and save your season. Crow-Armstrong got a handful of half-chances, and that one legitimate one. He came up empty every time. In the two-game series, he went 0-for-7, and he didn't make solid contact at all. His lone triumph was a walk, and he did immediately apply pressure thereafter by stealing second base, but that came to nothing. For the whole series, the Cubs' efforts practically did so; they were outscored 12-1. Of course, Crow-Armstrong isn't primarily to blame for the loss. Even in that pivotal inning that saw a golden opportunity slip away, he was not the most egregious culprit. That heavy weight falls across the shoulders of Dansby Swanson, who was ahead in the count 3-1 on Pivetta with nobody out and those two runners already aboard, then chased two straight pitches outside the zone to strike out. Swanson went 0-for-6 in the series and damaged multiple rallies with bad at-bats. The only run the team scored in either game came in the frame right after Swanson, Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman wasted their golden chance. After a single and a walk with one out, Nico Hoerner bounced a single into center field to score Seiya Suzuki, halving the Cubs' deficit. But Hoerner was merely making up for his own costly miscue. In the bottom of the second, he lost track of himself as he raced into place to receive a throw from Carson Kelly on a steal attempt by Jackson Merrill. The ball beat Merrill and was on target, but Hoerner had come too far in front of the keystone and snared the ball too soon. Had he been better-positioned and let the ball travel more, Merrill would have been out. Instead, he was safe, and the Padres scored two runs in the inning. One of the two should have been avoided. Little things like that went wrong for the team all series. Crow-Armstrong didn't catch a homer he could possibly, maybe have stolen from Fernando Tatis Jr. in Game 1. Swanson couldn't handle a throw later in that game, and his teammates reacted too slowly behind him, leading to a steal of second that became a run for San Diego. David Peterson didn't cover first quickly enough to get an out the team should have had on a grounder later in Game 2. Crow-Armstrong squandered one of the team's two ABS challenges with a bad appeal in the first at-bat of the contest, and Kelly lost the other in the bottom of the third. None of that ultimately mattered that much, though. Hoerner's misplay was costly. So were the bad at-bats by Swanson, Crow-Armstrong and Bregman in the third. The game was well and truly decided when, after some characteristically nervous managing by Craig Counsell brought Daniel Palencia into the game in the bottom of the fourth, Palencia threw a fastball right into Gavin Sheets's wheelhouse and watched a long home run turn a 2-1 divot into a 4-1 hole. All series, the Cubs were outplayed—outhit, by a fresher Padres team that carried over their excellent slugging numbers from the final month of the regular season, and outfielded, too, but especially outpitched. Michael King and Pivetta were both impressive (in different ways), but the Padres bullpen also showed its depth and its raw stuff throughout the set. The strikeout and walk numbers weren't as imbalanced as one might guess, but Padres batters had six of the seven hardest-hit balls in Game 1 and eight of the nine hardest-hit balls in Game 2. They hit four home runs in the series; the Cubs didn't hit a ball more than 353 feet. San Diego's hurlers produced some late swings and some early ones, and despite the Cubs' arguably superior offensive talent, the far superior pitching of the Padres prevented them from doing damage. The Cubs' weak pitching staff couldn't do the same to the home side's sluggers. The unceremonious exit (their playoff-branded gear alludes to October, but they didn't actually make it out of September) is a gut punch for the Cubs, organizationally. It brings Crow-Armstrong's glorious season to an end that will sit in his craw all winter, the same way his poor and often embarrassing showing against the Brewers in last year's NLDS did. It marks the official termination of the season that might have marked the team's best hope for a deep playoff run for a while. Swanson, who will turn 33 before the team reconvenes for spring training, batted .212/.281/.385 from May 1 onward, and he lost significant time due to a soft-tissue injury (an oblique strain) for the first time in his career. Bregman turns 33 next March, too, and while he had a marvelous season and his partnership with Swanson on the left side of the infield was a joy to behold, the actuarial tables say those two players will be markedly worse next year than they were in 2026. They're very much part of the team's core, though, for four more seasons. Though considerably younger (he'll be 30 next spring), Hoerner was also much worse than those two this season. Ditto for Michael Busch, the only infielder not on a long-term deal. Counsell pinch-hit for Busch against lefty Adrian Morejon in the late innings of Game 2, which was the right call, but it felt jarring. Busch got a whopping 710 plate appearances in 2026. The percentage of his at-bats that came against right-handed hurlers dropped from 84% to 71%. He was an everyday, all-game player, but that didn't work: he slugged .393 at a position from which teams need to get power. That Counsell pulled him when there was no more slack left to offer felt like an admission that this was never the plan, and that it can't be, going forward. Had Tyler Austin stayed healthy, this season might have been different and better for Busch, even with less playing time. Having seen his warts (and knowing he'll be 29 years old next year, with below-average bat speed already), though, the Cubs must now decide whether to try for a platoon arrangement again in 2027—or try to find an outright upgrade. That's just one (and not even one of the biggest) of a huge number of tough decisions that amount to a massive amount of uncertainty for the team, as they look toward a winter that will be uncertain for nearly everyone. For a moment, forget about the questions that will swirl around negotiations for a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, and about the lockout that seems sure to swallow most of the winter once the current deal expires on December 1. This team has bigger fish to fry. Is Busch the answer at first base? He almost has to be, because moving that spot into even a top-10 list of priorities would be tough. Gausman started Game 2. Peterson provided some bridge relief work, and although he didn't enter the fray, Clay Holmes warmed up in the bottom of the eighth, just in case. All three of those hurlers are ticketed for free agency at the end of the World Series. So are Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga—the entirety, in other words, of the team's extant rotation at the end of the year. Most of that corps will depart, though it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see Boyd or Holmes return on a new deal. Beyond any arms from that group who return, the team will try to backfill with some internal options who were unavailable down the stretch. They remain cautiously optimistic about Justin Steele's progression toward a 2027 return and about Ben Brown being able to pitch without pain in his neck by the spring. Edward Cabrera should have a normal offseason, and Cade Horton might be able to return to the rotation by the middle of next year. Then again, Steele was supposed to be back already; he's now missed almost two full seasons in the wake of his second elbow reconstruction. The same fate is very much in play for Horton, so the team can't afford to treat him as a sure thing. Nor did Steele actually show well enough in any competitive minor-league action to inspire confidence heading into the winter. Brown's prognosis is unclear, as neither he nor the team has yet gotten a good answer about how to ensure that the stress reactions he's suffered in his neck won't recur. Cabrera is, at this moment, nothing so much as a symbol of the team's inability to help pitchers. Braxton Garrett is in the mix, but again, the less he's counted upon when building the offseason plan, the better. If anything, the corner outfield spots are even more uncertain. Ian Happ and Suzuki are both free agents-to-be, and though the team has at least some interest in a reunion with one or the other, there's no guarantee of that. Neither Matt Shaw nor Pedro Ramírez profiles very well as a full-time corner outfielder, and the lightning that was Michael Conforto's season is unlikely to strike twice. (Conforto is a free agent, too, of course.) Kevin Alcántara hasn't gotten any real chance to prove that he can hit big-league pitching, and in fact, he's only intermittently showed that he can hit Triple-A hurlers, but he's out of options next spring and will have to be on the big-league roster if he's in the organization at all. Kelly is an impending free agent, himself. Even if you're a big Owen Ayers believer, you can't plan to simply install him as a semi-regular behind the plate next Opening Day. The Cubs will have to add a catcher. Since their bullpen investments of this year mostly went bust, they'll have to spend more on relievers, too—though they did mitigate that need a bit by trading for Ryan Zeferjahn. Re-signing and/or replacing all of the talent sloughing off this roster will be hugely expensive. The Cubs don't have great alternatives, though, given the state of their farm system. Their margin for error next year is thinner than it would have been if they'd been less aggressive at the deadline, too, as Brett Bateman (outfield), Moisés Ballesteros (DH) and Jefferson Rojas (infield) all could have been reinforcements for the roster if they hadn't been dealt away. The front office recognized the importance of capitalizing on the year they were getting from Crow-Armstrong and on the last prime-adjacent years of Bregman, Swanson, Happ, Suzuki and more. They pushed in their chips. After Wednesday night, it sure feels like they lost the hand, but playing it was the brave (and perhaps the only) thing to do. A core remains. They should have better injury luck next year, though it won't be as rosy as some will try to tell you it might be. This season should (and probably will) force a reckoning with the team's failures to create a robust pitching pipeline that suits the modern game. They also found their superstar this year. Crow-Armstrong's season deserves (and will get) greater encomiums than the rush of the final week and the thud of this series have allowed; it was a delightful thing. But Crow-Armstrong will (if for no other reason than because it's the only direction he can go) get worse in 2027. He missed his own chances to extend this magical season, and his team was never up to catching him when he fell back to the pack. Indeed, without him, they would have been eliminated a week before the end of the regular season. As they look toward 2027, the Cubs have to be real with themselves. Almost everywhere, they failed in 2026. Crow-Armstrong saved a bad season, but he ran out of steam at the end of the race, thanks to having carried the entire franchise on his back for most of the course. Somehow, they have to support him better next year, and this week's pulverization by a team with a much deeper group of dynamic contributors was a reminder that doing so will require an uncharacteristically dramatic organizational transformation. It's ok to be worried about whether they can pull that off; they probably can't. View the full article

The turning point in a postseason game can be more of a subtle situation that gets more of a footnote than a headline. But Nick Pivetta knew. You could tell by how the San Diego Padres’ right-handed starter let out a scream following the final out of the third inning in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series. Pivetta put himself into trouble, then escaped like the crafty veteran that he is. The smoldering fire was extinguished before more fuel could be added, possibly getting out of control. Pivetta and the Padres were able to get out of the top of the third in the same situation they were in at the beginning of the frame: holding a 2-0 lead. That 2-0 lead would eventually become a 4-1 victory that allowed the Padres to sweep the Cubs in the best-of-three series at a raucous Petco Park. Now, the Friars will face another NL Central team, the Milwaukee Brewers, in the NL Division Series that begins Saturday on the road. The Brewers posted MLB’s best record for the second year in a row. Pivetta and the Padres had a huge safety net in this game. There would be a tomorrow if they lost, whereas the Cubs were looking to avoid elimination. But as has been the case in the second half of this season for the Padres, they would not need that cushion. Coming off scoring twice in the bottom of the second, Pivetta was facing the bottom three hitters in a top-heavy Cubs lineup that produced the most runs in MLB this season. Matt Shaw drew a six-pitch walk, with ball four confirmed after a poor challenge by Padres rookie catcher Ethan Salas, making his postseason debut at 20 years, 121 days, the youngest catcher in MLB playoff history. Carson Kelly was next. After fouling off a four-seamer, Kelly yanked a 1-1 sweeper to left field that Dustin Harris cut off before it got to the wall, keeping Shaw at second. This is when Pivetta had to dig as deep as he has since returning from a right elbow injury after four starts in April to make another four starts in September. Dansby Swanson, typically a dangerous hitter having a bad offensive season, now had a chance to reverse that narrative. Pivetta tried to get the Cubs’ shortstop to chase, with his first three pitches—two four-seamers sandwiched around a cutter—low and outside. Swanson didn’t take the bait and was up in the count 3-0. At that point, Padres manager Craig Stammen, in his first season and with no previous managerial experience, picked up the bullpen and uttered one word: “Bradgley.” That was to get rookie right-hander Bradgley Rodriguez up. With the Cubs desperate for their first run of the series, Swanson was taking all the way as Pivetta threw a get-me-over four-seamer, which would be his only pitch in the strike zone in this at-bat. Another four-seamer followed that was low and outside, but much closer to the zone that Swanson was too aggressive with, swinging and missing. Now with the count at 3-2, Pivetta was back in control. He delivered one final four-seamer, this one well below the zone on the outside corner. Swanson flailed at that one for the first out of the inning. With the water still bubbling but not yet boiling, the Cubs had their best shot of the inning with the top of the order now approaching the plate in NL MVP front-runner Pete Crow-Armstrong. The left-handed hitter fouled a first-pitch curveball off his right foot. Another curve followed that was way inside to even the count. Then Pivetta challenged Crow-Armstrong with a 94.9 mph four-seamer on the inside corner that jammed the star center fielder, who popped it up on the infield, snagged by shortstop Xander Bogaerts just two steps away on the right side of second base. Two outs. One to go. Alex Bregman stepped up. The most postseason-savvy of any player on either roster, Bregman has faced crucial situations like this one before, coming through often. After taking a 94.3 mph four-seamer for a strike on the outside corner, Bregman got a 92.4 mph four-seamer up and in that he went after, but could only manage a soft fly to center that Jackson Merrill trotted in and secured for the final out. Rodriguez wasn’t needed and sat back down. Those first two runners to reach to begin the inning were still where they were. It was the most taking inning of Pivetta’s return and, other than his comeback game, his most rewarding. Nineteen pitches, but it was still a 2-0 Padres lead. As he walked off the mound, with the Friar Faithful at full throat, Pivetta yelled, “Let’s go, guys! Let’s (******) go!” Pivetta was never going to go seven innings in this one like right-hander Michael King did in a dominant Game 1 performance. The Pivetta plan was going to max out at five innings, with a fresh bullpen ready to take over. But Pivetta would only get one more out. In the fourth, he gave up a one-out single to Seiya Suzuki, then walked Ian Happ. Nico Hoerner, who had two of the Cubs’ three hits in Game 1, then singled to center to bring in the Cubs’ first run. Now Rodriguez was summoned, ending Pivetta’s night. That stat line was suitable for a postseason start: 3⅓ innings, three hits, one run, three walks, four strikeouts. Yes, the Padres will need more from Pivetta in whatever number of postseason appearances he makes. But in this scenario, with a very rested bullpen, it was just fine. It was Pivetta’s great escape in the third inning that kept the game from turning a different way. View the full article

Game 1 of the Wild Card Round is in the books. Let's just say I'm thankful that Game 2 is right around the corner. If the Chicago Cubs are going to force a Game 3 and remain alive in the Wild Card Round, they’re going to need a much more inspired performance than what we saw from them last night. Chicago was shut out, managed just six hard-hit balls, and struck out 11 times. Now, their season is officially on the line. So, with that in mind, here are a few specific things the Cubs will have to do differently tonight if they want to remain afloat and force a rubber match. Cubs Must Be More Aggressive Early In Game 2 For one, I think the Cubs need to be more aggressive early in counts. The Padres’ pitching staff, and Michael King specifically, was challenging hitters with a lot of fastballs during the first couple of pitches of at-bats. And Chicago didn’t offer at them. That’s not to say I don’t understand the approach. There’s certainly value in making the opposing starter work. Running up his pitch count and forcing the Padres to get into their bullpen earlier than they’d prefer can be a good strategy, especially in a playoff game. But that concept wound up failing as King took a no-hitter into the seventh inning, and the Cubs never really made him uncomfortable. Now, with their season on the line, they have to adjust. I’m looking for Chicago to be more aggressive early in counts tonight, especially if Padres starter Nick Pivetta gives them something to hit. And, frankly, with a fresh Padres bullpen regardless, running up Pivetta’s pitch count doesn’t matter nearly as much as it did coming into Game 1. This team needs to make something happen early in at-bats. Kevin Gausman Needs to Give Cubs Length Another thing that absolutely needs to happen is that the Cubs need to get a strong start out of Kevin Gausman. Matthew Boyd made it through just four innings in Game 1, forcing four different relievers to throw at least 16 pitches. Even with a deeper bullpen than they had during the regular season, Chicago can't afford to ask that group to cover another significant chunk of a game tonight. If Gausman can’t make it more than four innings, that’s a problem. Now, his workload could be monitored regardless; the right-hander is coming off a left shoulder injury he suffered last week, so the Cubs may have a limit in mind before he even takes the mound. But even if he’s capped at five or six innings, they need to be quality frames that limit chaos on the basepaths. There are still plenty of options available in the bullpen. Daniel Palencia and Ryan Zeferjahn are both available, and it wouldn’t shock me to see someone like Clay Holmes or Shota Imanaga work in relief in an elimination game. But those guys need a lead to work with. What Gausman gives the Cubs tonight will have a big part in determining whether they have one. Cubs Can't Let Nick Pivetta Get Settled And then, lastly, the Cubs need to jump on Nick Pivetta. I mean, my gosh. King was no-hitting this lineup through six innings last night, and the Padres’ pitching staff ultimately shut Chicago out. As I noted, the Cubs struck out 11 times as a team in Game 1, and just six of the 20 balls they put in play were hard-hit. That’s obviously not exactly a recipe for success, particularly against a Padres team just dying to get to the back end of their dominant bullpen. That last part is especially important because of what awaits Chicago if the game is close. San Diego has some fresh high-leverage arms available after Mason Miller, Adrián Morejón and Bradgley Rodriguez all avoided pitching in Game 1. That means the Cubs are likely to see at least a couple of those guys tonight. And if those relievers are entering the game with a lead, that’s not exactly promising for our hopes of extending the series. The Cubs need to create some separation before San Diego can turn things over to its best relievers. View the full article

Game 1 of the Wild Card Round is in the books, and the San Diego Padres couldn’t have asked for a better start to the series. After a dominant 8-0 victory over the Chicago Cubs last night, the Padres are firmly in the driver’s seat. They are now just one win away from advancing to the NLDS, where they would face the Milwaukee Brewers. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t still work to be done. A loss tonight would send the series to a winner-takes-all Game 3, completely changing the complexion of the matchup. So with that in mind, here are a few things San Diego must do tonight in order to win the series and avoid a rubber match. Craig Stammen Must Have A Short Leash With Nick Pivetta Most importantly, the Padres cannot leave Nick Pivetta out there for too long. And don’t get me wrong, that’s no slight at Pivetta. He’s pitched very well since coming off the injured list and has given the Friars exactly what they've needed from him down the stretch. But there are a couple of reasons why San Diego shouldn’t ask too much of him tonight. For one, Pivetta has made just four starts since returning from the IL, with none of those outings lasting longer than five innings. This isn’t a situation where the Padres should expect him to suddenly turn into a seven-inning workhorse. And perhaps more importantly, the bullpen is fresh. If San Diego can get five strong innings out of Pivetta tonight, I think that’s a massive success. But I’ll take four quality innings over working into the fifth or sixth when he doesn’t need to. The Padres have the bullpen to cover the rest of the game. There’s no reason to push their starter beyond his limits simply because it’s a playoff game. Padres Must Wear Kevin Gausman Down Early As for the bats, the biggest thing I want to see tonight is patience and selectivity at the plate. Kevin Gausman will take the mound for Chicago, although there was some speculation about whether or not he would actually be able to make the start. He injured his left shoulder last week, and while it’s his non-throwing shoulder, it’s entirely possible that he could be working under some sort of pitch restriction tonight. The Padres also knocked Matthew Boyd out after just four innings last night, forcing Chicago into a heavy bullpen game. The Cubs will have some of their high-leverage arms available for what is essentially an elimination game, but that doesn’t mean San Diego should make things easy for them. Make them go to those relievers earlier than they’d prefer. And when those relievers enter the game, make them work, too. The Padres don’t need to come out swinging at everything just because they scored eight runs last night. If anything, I’d like to see the offense be patient and selective above all else. Run up those pitch counts. Get Gausman into uncomfortable counts, force Chicago to dig deeper into its bullpen, and make every at-bat competitive. The Padres already have the advantage in this series. They don’t need to chase pitches or try to force the offense. If they can consistently put pressure on the Cubs’ pitching staff, the opportunities should come. Bullpen Creativity Goes A Long Way In San Diego And then lastly, be smart with the bullpen. As I alluded to earlier, it’ll likely be a pretty heavy bullpen game for San Diego, assuming Pivetta doesn’t work super deep. With this bullpen, that’s not at all a bad thing. Yuki Matsui and Joe Musgrove were the only Padres relievers to pitch last night, and each threw just one inning. That means San Diego has a very fresh bullpen heading into Game 2. Because of that, they can kind of pick and choose the matchups they want to deploy their arms in. Mason Miller is the best ninth-inning arm in baseball, but if this is a one-run game in the seventh inning with the heart of Chicago’s order coming up, maybe that’s where you go to him. Why wait? If Miller can get the biggest outs of the game in the seventh, the Padres would likely still be able to turn to Adrián Morejón and Bradgley Rodriguez to cover the eighth and ninth. Another possibility could be if San Diego finds themselves in a tight game in the fifth or sixth inning with the top of the Cubs’ lineup coming up. Last night, Chicago led off with Pete Crow-Armstrong, with fellow lefty Michael Busch hitting third. Perhaps that’s a spot where you turn to Adrián Morejón earlier than you normally would and try to take advantage of the matchup. There’s no reason to be overly rigid with the traditional bullpen roles tonight. The Padres have a lead in the series and thus, a chance to end this thing tonight. That gives Craig Stammen a lot of flexibility, and it’ll be up to him to use that flexibility to shut the door on a desperate Cubs team. View the full article

After watching Michael King carry a no-hitter into the seventh inning of their Game 1 matchup against the Chicago Cubs, the San Diego Padres will send another savvy veteran to the mound in Game 2 in the form of Nick Pivetta. Regardless of how well he performs, though, we shouldn't necessarily expect the process to look quite the same as last night. King always seemed destined to turn in at least six innings of work; in his 15 starts since the beginning of July, he had only failed to complete that workload on three separate occasions (and two of those were five full frames). Pivetta, however, doesn't have that type of volume on which to stand. Pivetta went down in April with a right elbow injury. His rehab was shaky, including an abrupt departure from an outing in early August following additional tightness. While he went on to throw an additional 30 pitches in the bullpen that same night, we didn't see him make a start for the Padres again until September 7. Three starts followed to close out the year. This is how those final four outings looked for him: September 7th: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB September 13th: 4.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 5 K, 0 BB September 18th: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 K, 1 BB September 24th: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 7 K, 1 BB All told, Pivetta finished the month with a 1.45 ERA (3.05 FIP) across 18.2 innings, 18 strikeouts (24.3 K%), and a pair of walks (2.7 BB%). As ever with Pivetta, the name of the game is efficiency. While he hasn't provided tremendous volume as he works his way back to full strength, he's been able to turn in just of a workload for the Padres' elite bullpen to take over. In doing so, he's left the team in a great situation each time as far as the scoreboard is concerned. When he takes the ball at Petco Park on Wednesday night, we should expect it to look largely the same as we did throughout September. It's obviously difficult to account for what type of production we might see out of the Cubs' offense. While they were the league's best run producers in the regular season, King stifled them entirely in Game 1 largely on the strength of his sweeper. Maybe they rebound against Pivetta and send him to the bench early. If he's able to turn in a continued level of steadiness, though, one expects that their plan will look much the same as it has been since his return. Each time out, Craig Stammen gave Pivetta just about two turns through the order. He faced 17 hitters in each of his first two starts back and 20 in each of his third & fourth. He was immediately followed by a lefty; Kyle Hart threw an inning in the first two, Wandy Peralta came out in the third, and Yuki Matsui followed him in the fourth. It's likely we'll see something similar play out on Wednesday night. If Pivetta can stay the course and work at least four full frames, then you're likely looking at a left-handed arm in relief, especially if the Padres are in a position where Pete Crow-Armstrong or Michael Busch (or even Ian Happ, given his right-handed woes) are due up. King's excellence on Tuesday also left the bullpen quite fresh, with only Matsui & the return of Joe Musgrove featuring after his seven innings. Which means that the bullpen is almost entirely in order ahead of Game 2. If Pivetta can give the Padres anything close to what he did down the stretch of the regular season, San Diego should be in legitimately excellent shape with a chance to advance to the National League Division Series in a sweeping effort. View the full article

The Milwaukee Brewers saw many different faces take the field throughout the 2026 season, with 24 position players recording at least one plate appearance. From young players beginning to make their mark in the majors to veterans who have been important parts of the organization, each brought something unique to the Brewers’ lineup. As the season unfolded, some players established themselves as key contributors at the top of the order, while others saw their roles change, for better or for worse. With the full season now behind us, it's a good time to look back at what each player brought to the NL Central division champs. Here's a look at all 24 Brewers position players who stepped into the batter’s box this season, with each player receiving a grade based on their 2026 performance. The players are listed here by total plate appearances. Brice Turang (680 PA): A Led Brewers position players in fWAR, RBIs, doubles, hits, and runs. He continues to be one of the best development stories for the Brewers and one heck of a defensive second baseman. Hopefully, his playoff performance backs up the show he put on in the regular season. William Contreras (640 PA): B Played well this season, slashing .270/.341/.417 with 18 home runs. The slugging percentage has fallen off since the 2024 season, and that may never come back, but that doesn’t mean he's a bad offensive player. His long-term future with the Brewers may be in question, but he's been a great player overall and had a solid season. You just wanted a little more out of the two-time Silver Slugger award winner. Jake Bauers (578 PA): A+ Had the highest OPS on the team this year. A free agent at season’s end, Bauers hit 26 homers, which led the Brewers. His on-base prowess set him apart, as well: his .389 OBP was the third highest in baseball. Bauers has performed in the playoffs before. Now, it's time for him to do it again, with the altered setup that triggered this breakout. Jackson Chourio (573 PA): A+ Missed time with injury but didn’t miss a beat. He delivered arguably the biggest swing of the year against the Cubs, hitting a game-tying dinger in the 9th inning when the Brewers were down to their last out. His OPS is the highest it's ever been (.837), even with a horrid month of July wherein he slashed .229/.283/.305. Chourio bounced back thereafter, posting an OPS over .900 in August and September, and those numbers should carry into the NLDS. Garrett Mitchell (531 PA): B+ Finally healthy and performed great, slashing .262/.354/.416 with 30 doubles and 11 bombs. Appearing in 145 games was the biggest win for Mitchell and the Brewers, and that level of health has been part of the success story for the team this year. Christian Yelich (500 PA): D Wasn’t up to the standards the Yelich we all know and love has set. He had his moments, but his OPS+ was below average for the first time in his career. The new captain of the Brewers has embodied everything Milwaukee has wanted throughout his time here, and hopefully, the playoffs erase the bad taste of the former MVP’s regular season. Joey Ortiz (415 PA): B- Outperformed expectations once he slid over to third base. Had a .207/.299/.262 line before Cooper Pratt was called up, but a .310/.348/.491 after. His defense didn’t miss a beat, and it was good to see a season that started so negatively end on a strong note for a player who had struggled offensively since the 2024 season. David Hamilton (387 PA): C- An elite baserunner with 95th-percentile sprint speed, but a below-average offensive and defensive player. Hamilton garnered a lot of hype before the season, but the reality is that he is an ok bench bat, and his speed will be useful in the postseason. Sal Frelick (384 PA): D Regressed heavily this season, posting a 70 OPS+ just a year removed from an above-average season. Suffered a right shoulder strain which revealed an underlying torn labrum, which could have led to the decline in production. Hopefully, a healthy Frelick is a positive offensive force, though his production was worse when he came back. Andrew Vaughn (331 PA): A- Did what he was supposed to do and more against lefties (.938 OPS) and was surprisingly above-average against righties, as well (.764 OPS). Could find himself in an expanded role next season, with Bauers heading for free agency. Only 6 homers from him is slightly disappointing, though the opportunities were too sporadic to judge that harshly. Gary Sánchez (275 PA): B- Was a great offseason signing to be the backup catcher. A three-true-outcome approach, Sánchez demonstrated a level of patience not seen before in his career. Though he struggled with ABS, both offensively and defensively, he was a great player for the limited role he played. Cooper Pratt (266 PA): B Had a better-than-expected offensive season. There weren’t concerns about his stellar defense, and a line of .281/.350/.368 is nothing to scoff at for a rookie. He stole 19 bases, as well, showcasing his 88th-percentile sprint speed. Luis Lara (212 PA): B- Did not show the offensive upside he demonstrated in Nashville when he was called up, but his stellar defensive plays made up for it. Lara is seemingly always crashing into the outfield wall to rob a homer. Here’s to many more of those in the future from the promising rookie. Luis Rengifo (209 PA): F Was extremely disappointing as one of the only offseason acquisitions Milwaukee made to the offense, but the team moved on at the right time. Pratt and Ortiz were significantly better than Rengifo was this season. He slashed .205/.280/.254 without a homer. Good for him for bouncing back with the Padres, though. He suffered a late-August knee injury that ensured no one emerges from the season feeling good. Brandon Lockridge (113 PA): C- Was hyped up before the season as a breakout candidate and performed decently in the time he did spend with the Brewers, slashing .277/.348/.327. A severe right knee injury in May knocked him out until August. Lockridge wasn’t in Milwaukee long before being optioned to Nashville. His speed is his defining trait and could be useful for the Brewers in the future, even though it wasn’t for much of the 2026 season. Blake Perkins (101 PA): D- Posted career-worst numbers for the Brewers and was eventually traded to the Guardians at the deadline. His .701 OPS against lefties was still alright, but the team was running out of room in the outfield. Tyler Black (28 PA): C+ Had a great stint for Milwaukee, slashing .333/.357/.481 with 4 doubles, but there's a reason why that stint didn't last long. He still needs to find a defensive position, and time may be running out on him to contribute to the Brewers on a regular basis. Greg Jones (24 PA): F -0.5 fWAR and a .174 OPS in this small of a sample is not very good. He also signed with the rival Cubs after he was granted free agency—maybe as a double-agent. Luis Matos (21 PA): D- Was not a big contributor this season; just a warm body for the outfield early in the campaign. Still in the organization, though, and is only 24, though it is unlikely that he ever contributes meaningfully for the Brewers given his career major-league line of .230/.279/.363. Maybe the Brewers work some of their magic. Jonathan Ornelas (9 PA): C- Another small sample for a fill-in player, a .444 OPS isn’t good, and that's on par with his career OPS of .483—although that's in only 80 career plate appearances. Bo Naylor (9 PA): C Could be a part of the future for the Brewers. He was acquired from the Guardians at the deadline, tore it up at Nashville to the tune of a .283/.353/.550 line (albeit in a small sample of 68 plate appearances), and eventually was called up in September. Naylor didn’t play much as the Brewers chased home-field advantage, but he has the potential to be the biggest riser from this list come next season. Braden Shewmake (8 PA): C An add off waivers by the Brewers in July, Shewmake didn’t have a lot of time to establish himself, but did slash .286/.250/.429 in this small sample. Jihwan Bae (4 PA): C Made a little bit of an impact by getting a hit, stealing a base, and scoring a run in this small sample. It isn’t enough to give him a higher grade, though. Jeferson Quero (2 PA): C Did not have enough plate appearances to give a higher grade. Hopefully, he forces the issue to earn more playing time at the big-league level next season. There's plenty to be excited about heading into October. Turang, Bauers, and Chourio are leading the way, with players like Mitchell, Contreras, and Yelich (who could take over games over the course of multiple at-bats) in support. The hard part starts now. The journey to the World Series isn’t easy, and the Brewers will need every guy on this list (who will be on the playoff roster) to contribute the best they can in the role they're entrusted with by Pat Murphy. If Milwaukee does that, they should have nothing to worry about with this group and an elite pitching staff to go along with it. View the full article

When Andruw Monasterio appeared on the on-deck circle in the middle of Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, the immediate thought turned to Roman Anthony. The star outfielder had missed most of the season due to a finger injury and during the finale of the regular season on Sunday, he appeared to have grimaced after a check swing. The team’s leadoff hitter (along with one of their more impactful bats when healthy) was forced out of the game and the remainder of the series with a hand injury that includes a reaggravation of that midseason issue. The offense cannot afford a major loss like that, especially right after Mickey Gasper and Masataka Yoshida succumbed to injury while key offensive players Willson Contreras and Ceddanne Rafaela are still working back to full health. Alas, the team will have to prepare for a do-or-die situation without Anthony as they stare down Max Fried from the batter’s box. Anthony wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire since his return, but he was showing signs of improvement. In his last six games of the regular season, he was slashing .333/.391/.571 with three doubles and a triple from the leadoff spot in the lineup. Since his return, he hit .262/.321/.476 with six doubles, two triples, four home runs and 10 RBIs. For a team that was struggling to score runs in September, he was a sight for sore eyes. Against Cam Schlittler, the young superstar had gone 0-for-2 with two strikeouts prior to his removal. Despite the less-than-ideal performance his presence alone makes the lineup feel much deeper. Now, he might be gone for the remainder of the playoffs. Where the offense will come from will come down to a handful of players, most of all Jahmai Jones. The outfielder came over to Boston in a trade with Detroit to serve as a bat off the bench that would crush left-handed pitchers. Even prior to Anthony’s injury, he was destined to be in the lineup against Fried as he slashed .316/.426/.632 with four doubles, a triple, four home runs and eight RBIs against left-handed pitching with the Red Sox. Along with him, the team will need Contreras to return to his usual self. The slugger missed a large portion of September as he dealt with various injuries, but since returning to action in Game 162, Contreras has gone 0-for-6 with four strikeouts, including a rather uncompetitive at-bat against Cam Schlittler in the top of the first inning of Game 1. It may be a miracle for Contreras to be back as early as he is, especially after taking a pitch off his hand like he did, but the first baseman needs to improve on his approach. If this Red Sox team has any shot, they can’t have their big offensive weapon be this ineffective. Prior to the injury he had been scuffling, hitting just .217/.330/.386 with three doubles, a triple, three home runs and 12 RBIs in the month of August. Though during that time, he was attempting to play through several injuries he was dealing with since the All-Star Break along with a stint in the concussion protocol after being hit in the head during a game against the Los Angeles Dodgers. If Contreras is unable to come through, then the rest of the team needs to step up, especially someone like Wilyer Abreu. During the regular season, Abreu was a middle-of-the-lineup slugger who, for the third consecutive season, delivered new career highs in home runs and RBIs with 24 and 76, respectively. He also showed an improved eye at the plate, walking 71 times to help set a new career high on-base percentage of .327. However, as is usual with Abreu, he has been a streaky hitter in 2026. Over his last 24 games entering the playoffs, the right fielder slashed .211/.290/.322 with seven doubles, one home run and six RBIs. Even more concerning were the 23 strikeouts to 10 walks. September as a whole was his second-worst month of the season as he hit just .207/.286/.329 during a time that the offense was struggling to score runs. However, he took a massive leap forward against left-handed pitching this season; he hit .295/.375/.479 with 15 doubles, one triple, six home runs and 27 RBIs while striking out just 36 times in that split. With Fried on the mound for Game 2. the team will need Abreu to look more like that player. [There's also the unexpected return of Curtis Mead worth mentioning here, though no one should expect to see him play a serious role after such a long hiatus following his own wrist injury back in July. Anything he can provide in this series should be considered a bonus.] The loss of Anthony will be tough, but the Red Sox showed throughout the season that they are able to win without him. The team will just need to have players they relied on during Anthony’s absence to step up once more. Whether they manage to do so will determine if the season continues or ends with a sweep at the hands of their rivals. A superstar can easily help sway a game in their team’s favor, but there’s a reason baseball rosters are made up of 26 players. View the full article

With the sidelining of one key player, another that held hopes to make a big impact is finally coming to fruition. Infielder Curtis Mead, who was injured in his first game after being acquired via trade, was added to the Boston Red Sox's roster prior to Wednesday's Game 2 of the AL Wild Card Series vs. the New York Yankees. The Red Sox trail the best-of-three series 1-0 and face elimination in Game 2. Mead replaced injured outfielder Roman Anthony on the roster. Mead was hit on his left wrist in his second plate appearance in a Red Sox uniform, sustained a nondisplaced fracture in the July 26 game against the A's. Mead did not have surgery, giving him a chance to return this year. That opportunity arose with Anthony's injury in Game 1. Mead was acquired from the Washington Nationals in exchange for pitcher Connelly Early on July 27. Mead has been staying in hitting condition by hitting off a machine. He was not in the lineup for Game 2, but could come off the bench as a pinch-hitter. He had been picked up to play either third or second base. Mead was in the midst of a career year, posting a slash line of .253/.353/.498 with 17 homers and 48 RBIs in 88 games. Before this year, Mead had five homers in 152 career games over three seasons between the Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago White Sox. View the full article

As the Boston Red Sox face elimination, they have suffered a setback with one of their better hitters. Outfielder Roman Anthony is being removed from the roster due to injury prior to Wednesday's Game 2 of the AL Wild Card Series against the rival New York Yankees. Anthony would be ineligible to play in the AL Division Series should the Red Sox advance. The Red Sox lost Game 1 on Tuesday 9-0. There was no immediate word on who would replace Anthony on the roster. Anthony aggravated his right hand and wrist injury that sidelined him a good chunk of the season. Serving as the designated hitter and batting leadoff, Anthony was removed when his spot came up in the top of the sixth inning. Andruw Monasterio replaced him. Anthony had struck out swinging in the first and third innings. According to Tim Healey of the Boston Globe, Anthony sustained "new strains to different muscles," which was revealed after he was driven from New York to Boston after Tuesday's game to get new imaging. Anthony was on his way back to rejoin the team Wednesday. Another Globe reporter, Alex Speier, quoted manager Chad Tracy as saying there is "more" damage than previous imaging had revealed. Jahmai Jones was in the leadoff spot as the DH for Game 2. View the full article

Well that was disheartening. The Chicago Cubs were flattened and curb-stomped by the San Diego Padres in Game 1 of their best-of-three Wild Card Series, hardly putting up a fight against a red-hot home team backed by a raucous crowd. Michael King neutered the league's best offense in a dominant showing on the mound, while Matthew Boyd was bombarded by Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado right from the jump. So, with that out of the way, let's move on to better times in Game 2, huh? Nick Pivetta isn't the same terrifying matchup he was in last year's Wild Card Round, having missed a huge chunk of the season due to a flexor strain in his throwing elbow. He came back in time to make some tune-up starts in September, recording a 1.45 ERA over 18⅔ innings. Clearly, he looks ready to go, but his ERA estimators (3.05 FIP, 4.78 xFIP) suggest that the Cubs can get to him with better luck than they had last night. Even more important is the fact that the Cubs actually have some familiarity with their opponent tonight. After King, whom most of the starting lineup had rarely (if ever) faced before, plenty of hitters have some history against Pivetta. That includes Dansby Swanson (.814 OPS in 35 plate appearances), Michael Conforto (two homers in 13 at-bats), and Alex Bregman (.571 slugging in eight PAs). Nick Pivetta vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP 1 Dansby Swanson R 35 34 10 1 0 2 5 1 11 .294 .314 .500 .814 0 0 0 0 0 2 Michael Conforto L 15 13 2 0 0 2 2 2 3 .154 .267 .615 .882 0 0 0 0 1 3 Ian Happ B 11 10 3 1 0 0 0 1 6 .300 .364 .400 .764 0 0 0 0 0 4 Alex Bregman R 8 7 2 0 1 0 1 1 3 .286 .375 .571 .946 0 0 0 0 0 5 Carson Kelly R 6 6 3 0 1 0 1 0 3 .500 .500 .833 1.333 0 0 0 0 0 6 Michael Busch L 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0 7 Seiya Suzuki R 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0 0 0 1 8 Pete Crow-Armstrong L 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .500 .333 .833 0 0 0 0 0 9 Nico Hoerner R 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 10 Matt Shaw R 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0 11 Tyrone Taylor R 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 .000 .500 .000 .500 0 0 0 0 0 Provided by Stathead: Found with Stathead. See Full Results. However, their knowledge of Pivetta is utterly dwarfed by the encyclopedia the Padres probably have on Gausman. Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. have combined for well over 100 plate appearances against the Cubs' starter, with the latter two hitters are working with an OPS over 1.000 in this matchup. Kevin Gausman vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP 1 Xander Bogaerts R 63 60 17 2 0 1 5 2 14 .283 .317 .367 .684 0 0 0 1 1 2 Manny Machado R 25 25 9 1 0 2 3 0 3 .360 .360 .640 1.000 0 0 0 0 0 3 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 24 23 8 1 0 2 3 1 5 .348 .375 .652 1.027 0 0 0 0 0 4 Ty France R 21 18 6 1 0 0 1 2 5 .333 .429 .389 .817 0 0 0 1 0 5 Jake Cronenworth L 19 19 2 0 0 0 1 0 6 .105 .105 .105 .211 0 0 0 0 1 6 Austin Hays R 16 14 7 1 0 2 4 2 5 .500 .563 1.000 1.563 0 0 0 0 0 7 Gavin Sheets L 11 9 1 1 0 0 0 2 3 .111 .273 .222 .495 0 0 0 0 0 8 Jackson Merrill L 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 9 Walker Buehler R 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 1 0 0 0 0 10 Luis Campusano R 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 11 Sung-Mun Song L 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 .000 .500 .000 .500 0 0 0 0 0 Provided by Stathead: Found with Stathead. See Full Results. In other words, it's advantage Padres for the second straight game. If the Cubs can win this one and push it to three, they'll get a far more favorable matchup against Robbie Ray or Walker Buehler, but getting there could prove to be a Herculean task. View the full article

Robert Gasser doesn’t have the eye-popping stuff of Jacob Misiorowski or Logan Henderson, but he has a pitch for just about every situation. Could that make him an important piece of Milwaukee’s playoff plans? View the full article

The Minnesota Twins have dealt with their share of injuries throughout the 2026 season, but the organization expects most of those players to be back at full strength when spring training begins. General manager Jeremy Zoll provided an encouraging update Tuesday, saying nearly every injured player on the roster should be ready for the start of camp. That group includes veterans Byron Buxton and Pablo López, along with top prospect Walker Jenkins. Jenkins is scheduled to undergo arthroscopic surgery Wednesday to address an ongoing issue with his right elbow. Zoll explained that the problem has been something Jenkins has dealt with for several years, making the offseason an ideal opportunity to finally address it. "He's been dealing with a cranky right elbow on and off for three or four years at this point," Zoll said. "He's gonna get a procedure tomorrow to clean up bone chips and bone spur and he'll be full go for 2027. Gonna take advantage of the offseason to get that all squared away for Walker." That timeline should allow Jenkins to enter the 2027 season without the lingering elbow issue that has followed him throughout his development. Jenkins, the organization's top prospect, made his major-league debut in late August after tearing through the minor leagues. He quickly found himself in an important role, taking over in center field while Buxton dealt with his own injury. The transition to the majors was not an easy one. Jenkins hit just .089 with one home run through his first 16 games, with that homer coming against a position player. Those early struggles were understandable for a young player adjusting to the highest level, but Jenkins showed why the Twins have been so excited about his long-term potential by turning things around before the season ended. Over his final 10 games, Jenkins hit .400 while adding three home runs, five RBIs and nine runs scored. That strong finish gives the Twins something positive to build on heading into the offseason. Jenkins now has a taste of the major leagues and a chance to spend the winter preparing for his first full big-league season. The elbow procedure adds another item to his offseason checklist, but Zoll's comments suggest the Twins are approaching it as a chance to eliminate a lingering problem rather than something expected to derail Jenkins' preparation. If everything goes according to plan, Jenkins should arrive at spring training healthy and ready to compete for a prominent role in Minnesota's 2027 lineup. View the full article

Connor Prielipp entered 2026 facing big questions. The former second-round pick has dealt with significant injury concerns throughout his amateur and professional careers, making simply getting through a full season an important accomplishment. He did that in 2026. The results were mixed, but there were enough positives to make his season worth examining. His underlying numbers suggest there was some bad luck involved in his 4.87 ERA, while his new curveball gives him another weapon moving forward. At the same time, there were some concerning trends that Prielipp will need to address if he wants to become a reliable part of Minnesota's rotation. Here are three ups and three downs from Prielipp's 2026 season. Up 1: He Stayed Healthy This might be the most important development of Prielipp's season. After years of injury concerns, Prielipp finally made it through an entire season without another major setback. He logged 144 1/3 innings across 29 appearances between the minors and the big leagues. This gave him the opportunity to build the workload and experience that simply weren't available to him earlier in his career. For a pitcher whose professional development was repeatedly interrupted by injuries, accumulating innings matters. He had only pitched 113 2/3 innings across three professional seasons. Prielipp now has an entire season of major-league experience under his belt. The Twins can evaluate what worked, what didn't and what needs to change heading into 2027. That foundation is valuable. Up 2: The Underlying Numbers Were Better Prielipp's 4.87 ERA doesn't exactly jump off the page in a positive way. However, some of his underlying statistics tell a much more encouraging story. His 3.95 expected ERA (xERA) and 3.73 FIP were both significantly better than his actual ERA. That gap suggests Prielipp didn't pitch as poorly as his traditional numbers indicate. FIP strips away some of the factors outside a pitcher's control, while xERA uses quality of contact and other underlying information to estimate what a pitcher's ERA could have looked like. Neither statistic guarantees that Prielipp will suddenly post a sub-4.00 ERA next season, but both suggest there was some bad luck involved in his 2026 results. There is a difference between a pitcher who simply gets hit hard all season and one whose results don't fully match his underlying performance. Prielipp appears to have been closer to the latter. Up 3: The Curveball Gives Him Another Weapon Prielipp also added a curveball to his arsenal, and the results were encouraging. The pitch produced a .194 expected slugging percentage and a 37.7% whiff rate, showing legitimate swing-and-miss potential. Those numbers give Prielipp another way to attack hitters beyond his existing offspeed pitches. That matters because starting pitchers need multiple ways to get through a lineup. If Prielipp can consistently establish his fastball and then use his curveball and other offspeed offerings to finish at-bats, there is a path toward much better results. The curveball isn't going to solve every problem by itself, but it gives the Twins another reason to believe there is more in Prielipp's arsenal. Down 1: The Blow-Ups Were Too Frequent For all the positives, Prielipp had too many games where everything unraveled. He allowed four or more earned runs in 25% of his starts, and three different times he surrendered at least six runs. Those outings had a major impact on his overall numbers. His 87 ERA+ also tells the story. Prielipp's ERA was 13% worse than the league average after accounting for the environment in which he pitched. A young pitcher is going to have rough outings. That's part of development. But Prielipp needs to find a way to limit the damage when things start going sideways. Turning a six-run disaster into a three-run outing can make a significant difference over the course of a full season. Down 2: The Four-Seamer Needs Work Prielipp's offspeed pitches can be effective, but he has to get himself into position to use them. His 41.1% hard-hit rate ranked in baseball's bottom third, another indication that opposing hitters were making too much quality contact. His four-seamer was a major part of that problem, allowing a .505 expected slugging percentage and producing a -6 run value. That's a difficult combination for a starting pitcher. The curveball and other offspeed pitches can be excellent, but they don't matter as much if hitters are consistently getting comfortable against the fastball. Prielipp needs to improve his ability to get ahead in counts and make his four-seamer something hitters can't simply sit on. His secondary stuff gives him a chance. The fastball needs to put him in position to use it. Down 3: Left-Handed Hitters Gave Him Problems One of the more surprising splits from Prielipp's season came against hitters from the same side. Left-handed hitters posted a .786 OPS against Prielipp, compared to a .678 OPS from right-handed hitters. His WHIP showed an even bigger difference, with lefties posting a 1.62 WHIP compared to 1.18 against righties. That's something Prielipp will need to address. As a left-handed starter, Prielipp needs to be able to neutralize left-handed hitters. If opposing managers can load their lineups with lefties and force him into difficult matchups, it makes his job considerably harder. His secondary stuff should give him the tools to attack those hitters. The challenge is turning those tools into consistent results. Prielipp's 2026 season was difficult to summarize with one number. The 4.87 ERA isn't particularly impressive, but the 3.95 xERA and 3.73 FIP suggest there was more going on beneath the surface. His new curveball gives him another potentially dangerous pitch, and perhaps most importantly, he finally completed a full season without another major injury interruption. There are still significant questions. Prielipp needs to limit the blow-ups, improve the quality of contact allowed and figure out how to attack left-handed hitters more effectively. His four-seamer also needs to become a more reliable foundation for his secondary arsenal. That's what makes 2027 so interesting. Prielipp has already overcome one of the biggest obstacles in his development by staying healthy. Now he needs to turn that durability into consistency. How should the Twins view Prielipp’s rookie campaign? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

The hope the Boston Red Sox have left is that they will not face Cam Schlittler again. And that difference, no matter how bad the offense looked yesterday, can be an incentive to readjust and try to come back stronger in Game 2. Schlittler silenced the Red Sox again by throwing a solid 6 1/3 innings with 10 strikeouts and only two hits allowed, in his first start of the entire year with more than 106 pitches. When many of us thought Schlittler was done after striking out Adley Rutschman—until that point he had the team’s only hit in 20 plate appearances—to close out the sixth inning, Yankees manager Aaron Boone sent him out to open the seventh. He threw 117 pitches and generated 24 swings and misses, a career high. Now, in two postseason starts against the Red Sox, after also eliminating them last year in the Wild Card Series, he is 2-0, with 14 1/3 scoreless innings, 22 strikeouts and only one walk. He is this team's newest kryptonite. Schlittler threw his fastball 56% of the time and averaged 98.6 mph—topping out at 101 mph—and it was clear that the Red Sox still cannot hit high velocity. But in Game 1, there was a much bigger problem against Schlittler’s mix, as, on their 11 balls put in play, there were only two batted balls that exceeded 95 mph in exit velocity. Both ended up as groundouts into the glove of Yankees second baseman Anthony Volpe: one by Caleb Durbin at 100.1 mph for the second out of the third inning, and the second out of the fifth inning, a ball hit by Nick Sogard at 96.3 mph. In part, everything is due to the fact that Schlittler’s version was even more lethal because of the way he mixed his pitches, using the curveball for the first time as the second weapon in his arsenal. He threw it for 27% of his 117 pitches, a career high. The results were overwhelming, as Boston’s hitters missed the curveball on 50% of their 16 swings. The Red Sox finished with the worst offense in the entire league against the curveball, batting just .184, and the second-worst slugging percentage at .298, only ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays. The Yankees will send Max Fried to the mound this Wednesday, in Game 2, who is 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA in his career against the Red Sox. They have scored one run against Fried in 11 2/3 innings this year, a solo home run by Sogard on August 29 at Yankee Stadium. If we extend it to his last five starts as a Yankee, including Game 2 of last year’s Wild Card, then Fried improves to 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA in 29 1/3 innings, with 32 strikeouts and 11 walks. For Boston, their plate discipline has been the best result in drawing those 11 walks against Fried, although the average number of batters reaching base against him per start is only seven. So, that will be part of Boston’s challenge, with a lineup that has hit for a poor combined offensive line of .207/.260/.331 with a .590 OPS, 36 strikeouts, and nine walks against Fried. This year, they have gone 0-for-9 against his curveball, with a 50% whiff rate. Fried does not have Schlittler’s sustained meteoric velocity, but he mixes seven pitches in his arsenal and most of them are quality offerings. None of them has allowed more than a .333 xBA this year and all of them exceed a 18% whiff rate. The formula becomes much more complicated when he faces the Red Sox, because he has dominated most of Boston’s key hitters. We can separate it into two groups, with the worst hitters and those who have hit Fried the best. Red Sox's Worst Hitters Against Max Fried Player B PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO TB BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP Wilyer Abreu L 5 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0 0 0 0 Willson Contreras R 14 11 2 0 2 0 0 2 3 4 4 .182 .357 .364 .721 0 0 0 0 0 Jarren Duran L 13 13 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 5 4 .154 .154 .308 .462 0 0 0 0 0 Ceddanne Rafaela R 16 16 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 2 .125 .125 .125 .250 0 0 0 0 0 Adley Rutschman B 12 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 .000 .083 .000 .083 0 1 0 0 0 Caleb Durbin R 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 Andruw Monasterio R 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0 Roman Anthony L 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 Trevor Story R 20 19 4 1 1 0 2 5 1 7 11 .211 .250 .579 .829 0 0 0 0 0 Totals (Including Story) 93 86 11 4 5 0 2 8 6 29 22 .128 .183 .256 .439 0 1 0 0 0 Totals (Without Story) 73 67 7 3 4 0 0 3 5 22 11 .104 .164 .164 .329 0 1 0 0 0 Here we have eight of Boston’s nine starters from Game 1, and you can see that the only hitter who could add a little offensive heat is veteran Trevor Story, who has hit two of the three home runs and has five of the 12 RBIs from the entire roster. Without Story, the offensive line drops from .128/.183/.256 with a .439 OPS to .104/.164/.164 with a .329 OPS. Fried’s biggest advantage has been his combined dominance against Adley Rutschman, Caleb Durbin, Andruw Monasterio and Roman Anthony, who have gone 0-for-22 combined with six strikeouts. Another interesting detail here is that left-handed hitters are 3-for-21 against Fried, with eight strikeouts and no walks. Abreu is one of the team’s key hitters and, although he has not done particularly well against Fried, he is immovable. However, Red Sox manager Chad Tracy will have to choose whether he will keep Anthony(who might not even be healthy) and Duran in the starting lineup. Red Sox's Best Hitters Against Max Fried Player B PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO TB BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP Nick Sogard B 4 4 3 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 6 .750 .750 1.500 2.250 0 0 0 0 0 Nate Eaton R 5 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 .667 .800 .667 1.467 0 0 0 0 0 Jahmai Jones R 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0 Isiah Kiner-Falefa R 11 11 4 4 0 0 0 2 0 2 4 .364 .364 .364 .727 0 0 0 0 1 Connor Wong R 15 14 4 3 1 0 0 1 1 4 5 .286 .333 .357 .690 0 0 0 0 1 Totals 37 34 14 12 1 0 1 4 3 6 18 .412 .459 .529 .989 0 0 0 0 2 Nick Sogard leads the list, and the rest of the hitters are right-handed, an interesting point that reveals a certain profile advantage, so we could see one of them getting an at-bat as a pinch hitter or a starting spot. For Boston, the ultimate key will be knowing when to attack Fried at the precise moment, especially by extending their plate discipline. Right-handed hitters like Contreras, Rafaela, Story and perhaps Nate Eaton getting a starting spot will continue to carry the most weight in the offensive profile, but it is clear that the Red Sox will need quality at-bats throughout the lineup. If they can draw enough pitches to prevent Fried from going more than five innings, then the story of Game 2 could change if they face the less dominant part of the Yankees' bullpen. View the full article

The San Diego Padres excelled just about everywhere on the Petco Park field on Tuesday night. Their 8-0 win over the Chicago Cubs in Game 1 of the National League's Wild Card Round was plenty of what we've become accustomed to in their scorching second half of the season. That, of course, means that the offense came to play. The Padres have featured one of the league's best groups in terms of run production since the end of July, and they wasted no time in putting the screws to Cubs starter Matthew Boyd in Game 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. led the charge: Having spent almost every calendar day since June reestablishing himself as a superstar on the Major League Baseball landscape, Tatis sent the first pitch that anyone in the Padre lineup saw on Tuesday over the fence for the 1-0 lead. Manny Machado would go on to add another before the inning was over, but Tatis wasn't done contributing highlights to the effort. After getting an excellent jump to catch an Ian Happ lineout that carried a .430 expected batting average, he put the game to bed for good in the seventh: Tatis ensured we saw all aspects of his dynamic game in Game 1. The power, the speed, and the glove were each on display. What's especially important, though, is the fact that he wasn't remotely by himself in showing out in the commanding victory. Machado's first-inning home run was followed by a third-inning double that scored Tatis and served as the game's hardest hit ball (108.0 MPH). Xander Bogaerts homered in the fourth inning and added a single on the second-hardest hit ball of the evening (107.3 MPH) in the eighth. Jackson Merrill added a two-RBI single in the fifth that pushed the lead the 6-0 (which, at 107.1 MPH, was the game's third-hardest hit ball). Every single member of the "core" group contributed at least two hits to the effort, with Ty France adding a pair of his own knocks. While it may be unrealistic to expect this kind of outburst every game for however long the Padres play in the postseason, the team's fortunes in the 2026 are going to be driven by exactly this type of effort. They've gotten plenty of supplementary contributions in the second half from the likes of Dustin Harris or Luis Campusano. But it's the core that is going to drive the team's improved offense as far as this whole thing is going to go. Central to all of it, though, is Fernando Tatis Jr. Despite carrying the longest power outage of his career almost into June, he finished the season in the top 10 in fWAR (5.4) among the league's position players. He's done it on the power side (25 home runs), on the bases (38 steals), and in the field (3 Outs Above Average). These playoffs are a forum for him to reestablish his name among the game's very best for a mainstream audience. Seeing him lead the charge was an excellent sign for the immediate future, but it's going to take consistent contributions from a core group that has otherwise been streaky throughout the regular season. Tuesday showed what the offense looks like when they're all going at the same time. View the full article

The Chicago Cubs lost Game 1 of the National League Wild Card Series to the San Diego Padres. A loss, in itself, is obviously bad. But it's a short series, and the Cubs feature an offense that could turn things back in their favor on Wednesday night. What Game 1 didn't do, however, is leave much room for optimism that they actually can. Michael King was dominant on the hill for the Padres. That part isn't surprising. While his strikeout numbers are down in 2026, he's routinely been able to turn in six (or so) innings of excellent run prevention, courtesy of soft contact and a rising groundball rate. For an offense like the Cubs' to reach the seventh inning before notching their first hit, though, is indicative of how much their top hitters failed to rise to the occasion in the 8-0 loss. That sets up some legitimate concerns heading into Game 2. Pete-Crow Armstrong, for example, was 0-for-3 with a walk. He struck out three times and whiffed at five of the eight pitches at which he swung. Alex Bregman posted a similar line, going 0-for-4 with a trio of punchouts. He swung the bat 11 times and whiffed on six of them. These are two of the best hitters in the National League. Crow-Armstrong will be the NL's runaway Most Valuable Player, following a 45-homer, 41-steal, 10.6 fWAR season. (He did, at least, contribute a well-worked walk and steal a base in the loss.) Bregman rode a scorching second half to a 5.5-fWAR campaign that made him the seventh-most-valuable position player the sport had to offer. But King and the Padres had the book on each of them from the start. Crow-Armstrong swung at two sweepers on the evening and whiffed on both. Bregman had the bat moving at seven of them and whiffed on five. For both hitters this year, the breaking pitch has served as their highest source of swing-and-miss; Crow-Armstrong's gone for a whiff rate of 31.3%, while Bregman's done so at a 26.3% clip. Both hitters have had success on contact, but they make that contact when a pitcher leaves their breaking stuff in the zone. Burying the sweeper as effectively as King did on Tuesday stifled each. The hitters beyond the top two may have not whiffed at it in quite the same fashion, but only Carson Kelly registered a hard-hit ball on a breaking pitch, while the lefties were peppered with sinkers. There was simply no path to generating offense for a team that has ranked 20th in the league in runs scored over the past two weeks. The larger problem for the Cubs is now they have to turn around and face a pitcher (Nick Pivetta) who leans heavily on a curveball against lefties and more of a sweeper shape against right-handed hitters. It's not quite the same upside as King, but the profile isn't dissimilar enough that the Cubs will see an entirely different look. If Pivetta is able to locate remotely as well as his comrade in the Padres' rotation, the path to success against the Cubs has already been set forth. The good news is that Pivetta isn't King, in a few important ways. He works from a high arm slot, so his misses are vertical, more than horizontal. Historically, he misses within the zone fairly often, and he gives up homers. It's likely that he makes some mistakes on which Crow-Armstrong and Bregman can prey. If he takes his cue from his teammate and executes equally well, though, the Cubs' season could be over by the stroke of midnight. View the full article

The 2026 Blue Jays season certainly didn’t go the way anyone expected. Coming off a high from the World Series win the year prior, dealing with several injuries to key players throughout the roster, and with underperformance from the Blue Jays superstars, you could say the season was a little bit of a baseball hangover. But that doesn’t mean there weren’t still great moments. Even for an underperforming team, the Blue Jays still had moments of elation and excitement that brought us joy throughout the long baseball season. Looking back, here are the five games that I will remember most from 2026. March 28: Blue Jays 8, Athletics 7 (11 innings) Coming off a season-opening walk-off win against the Athletics, the Blue Jays' second game of the season was a ride and a true welcome back to the emotional roller coaster of Blue Jays baseball. Prized offseason addition Dylan Cease made his Blue Jays debut and shined right out of the gate. He struck out reigning rookie of the year Nick Kurtz on five pitches, and after battling his command, he found his game in the middle innings, striking out the side in order in both the fourth and fifth innings. The first start of a Cy Young-calibre season was underway. Things started to rattle once Cease left the game. After the first of what would be many relief appearances for Mason Fluharty, Brendon Little – whom John Schneider had just claimed as his spring training reliever MVP – entered the game. He immediately allowed three earned runs, and the Blue Jays fell behind 6-2 after the top of the seventh. But the Blue Jays fought their way back. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. drove in a run with an RBI single in the bottom half. Then, in the eighth, the Jays scored two more, and in the bottom of the ninth, Alejandro Kirk hit a solo home run to tie the game at six. With Jeff Hoffman blowing a save in the season opener, Louis Varland got the nod in the top of the 10th and allowed the zombie runner to score, but the Blue Jays answered again. This time, in the 11th, with the Blue Jays bullpen already overworked just two games into the season, the Blue Jays turned to Rule 5 pick Spencer Miles to make his major league debut. On his first batter, he immediately got a groundball right back to him and caught the zombie runner in a rundown to record his first big league out. After a strikeout, a walk and a fly ball, Miles had shown incredible poise by not only getting out of the inning clean, but earning the win in the process. When Ernie Clement hit a walk-off single in the bottom half of the 11th, the second walk-off win in two days, the Blue Jays were off to a 2-0 start. May 13: Blue Jays 5, Rays 3 (10 innings) A lot had changed between the game in March and where the Blue Jays found themselves in mid-May. Coming into this game, the Blue Jays were 18-24; they had lost three straight and seven of their previous nine, and even though it was early, they felt like they were quickly losing their place in the standings. Dylan Cease was on the mound again, and he continued his dominance: he fired seven innings, allowing just one run while striking out nine, his third straight seven-inning outing. But the Blue Jays offence was in a funk, and despite drawing four walks off Griffin Jax. They could muster only a Kazuma Okamoto sac fly paired with a 1-for-10 line with runners in scoring position; they couldn't score more than that through nine innings. Entering the 10th tied at one, Jeff Hoffman allowed two singles, two stolen bases, and, most importantly, two runs. It certainly felt like the Blue Jays were going to lose yet again. It would have been their eighth loss in their last 10. The Jays were looking for a moment, something that could spark the team and help them go on a run. The 2026 season was starting to feel like the first part of 2025, when the offence was struggling, and a Bo Bichette pinch-hit home run in Texas stole a win for the Blue Jays, and they were off to the races from there. For a moment, it looked like the Blue Jays found that spark in the bottom half, with George Springer running at second base and Guerrero and Okamoto both walking, setting the stage for Daulton Varsho to hit the Blue Jays' first walk-off grand slam since Steve Pearce in 2017. Ultimately, the home run didn’t magically fix the Blue Jays' season, but it gave the team and the fans a moment they desperately needed. The team then went on to win 10 of their next 15 and crawled back to the .500 mark. And for at least a few weeks, it felt like the Blue Jays were back. May 20: Blue Jays 2, Yankees 1 One of those 10 wins in their next 15 games following the Varsho walk-off grand slam was a trip back to the Bronx. The last time the Blue Jays were there, they had successfully pulled off a bullpen day to win the ALDS three games to one, punching their ticket into the League Championship Series. The Yankees showed they were ready this time. They had taken the first two games of the series, including tagging Dylan Cease for five earned runs the day prior, and had their ace Cam Schlittler on the mound. Countering for the Blue Jays was rookie phenom Trey Yesavage, who had made only four starts at that point. While the numbers were good, the Jays had yet to see the dominance they had seen from him in the 2025 postseason. Well, the two pitchers were as advertised. Yesavage was mowing them down. He allowed just two hits and struck out eight Yankee hitters, and you caught another glimpse of the upside the Jays rookie pitcher has. Unfortunately for the Jays, Schlittler was on the mound that day, too. The Blue Jays had just one batter reach base the first time through the order, and by the seventh inning, the scoreboard was knotted at zeros. Then the Blue Jays offence did what they do best: They got scrappy. Ernie Clement had an infield single, Jesús Sánchez drew a walk, and then Brandon Valenzuela tried to sacrifice himself, but the bunt was perfect, and he ended up reaching base himself, setting up the bases-loaded, no-out situation for Andrés Giménez. From there, Giménez had one of the best plate appearances of the year. Every time it looked like Schlittler was going to win the battle, Giménez found a way to keep fighting. He worked an 11-pitch plate appearance that included seven foul balls, not only to draw a walk but to knock Schlittler out of the game and, more importantly, give the Blue Jays the lead. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. added a sac fly, and despite Louis Varland allowing a run in the bottom of the ninth, he struck out Amed Rosario, and the Blue Jays were back to their winning ways. This game led to Schlittler's comments about the Blue Jays “BABIP-ing you to death” and was a key part of the narrative in the Cease vs. Schlittler AL Cy Young chase. This game may not be remembered by everyone, but it fit the script for how the Blue Jays were going to win games in 2026: be scrappy on offence and elite at preventing runs. On this Wednesday night in the Bronx, the Blue Jays did exactly that. July 8: Blue Jays 10, Giants 0 Sometimes a game turns out perfectly. The Blue Jays offence exploded in the top of the first, scoring five runs off Logan Webb, including an RBI single by Daulton Varsho and a grand slam by Kazuma Okamoto, and the Jays were off and running early. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer went back-to-back in the ninth to push the team to double-digit runs for the fifth time this season. But the story of this game wasn’t the offence; it was Dylan Cease. Cease retired the first nine batters he faced, and as he worked through the Giants lineup, the possibility of something special started to creep into the minds of everyone watching. He carried a perfect game into the fifth before a two-out walk to Willy Adames ended that part of the dream, but the no-hitter remained intact. He walked another batter in the sixth and seventh, but each time, Cease found a way out of the inning, and suddenly he was standing on the mound in the ninth with history within reach. By the ninth inning, no one could hide from what was happening. The Blue Jays had had only one in franchise history, and that was from Dave Stieb over 25 years earlier. Bowden Francis had his chances, as did Marco Estrada, Dustin McGowan, and Brandon Morrow before him, but Cease was trying to do what they couldn’t and get through nine innings without allowing a hit. As Cease took the mound in the bottom of the ninth on 115 pitches, John Schneider let his ace go out there and try for history. Unfortunately, it wasn't meant to be; three pitches into the ninth, Heliot Ramos lined a single up the middle, and the bid for the Blue Jays' second no-hitter was officially gone. Cease would have another dominant start two weeks later in Fenway Park, but this is the one I'll remember most. If Dylan Cease ever gets a no-hitter in his Blue Jays career, this start in San Francisco will be the one that gave us the tease that it was possible. September 27: Jays 5, Reds 1 This one isn’t necessarily about the game itself; it's more about what it meant to us as fans. This was Game 162, and with the Blue Jays already mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, the game didn't mean much in the standings. But for the players on the field, the sold-out Rogers Centre and the many watching at home, there was still plenty at stake emotionally. First, this was George Springer's last game as a Blue Jay (for now). John Schneider had him hit in the leadoff spot, as a tribute to him being one of the best power-hitting leadoff hitters of all time, and after he hit a double leading off the bottom of the third, he was removed for a pinch runner, allowing all the fans in attendance to give Springer a standing ovation for everything he’s done as a Toronto Blue Jay over the past six seasons. On the pitching side, the emotion ran even deeper. 42-year-old Max Scherzer took the mound for the Blue Jays on short rest and needed 10 strikeouts to tie Justin Verlander on the all-time strikeout list. He didn’t get there, but he still put on an incredible performance, striking out seven and throwing a season-high 114 pitches. The game had several nice moments. When John Schneider came out to talk to Scherzer on the mound, it was a quick visit, as any thought Schneider might have had of talking Mad Max out of the game was quickly pushed away by memories of Game 4 of the ALCS. After Max was removed from the game, there were incredible moments with his family, and shots of him going up and down the dugout sharing smiles, hugs, and moments with his teammates, showing how much love Scherzer had on this team. Whether or not this was the last game of his career, the first-ballot Hall of Famer remains one of baseball's most prominent pitchers over the past two decades. He won't be going into the Hall of Fame with a Blue Jays cap on, but you can’t tell the Max Scherzer story without mentioning the Blue Jays, and seeing him have that moment in Blue Jays blue was incredibly special. The game itself had its moments. Charles McAdoo and Brandon Valenzuela both hit home runs. Yet, what makes this game so memorable is that it was the potential end for two legends in the game of baseball, and two people who will forever have lasting moments in Blue Jays history. That's a memory we will carry with us forever. View the full article

The Boston Red Sox fell 9-0 in the first game of their Wild Card Series matchup against the New York Yankees and now have their backs up against a wall facing elimination. Despite the daunting task of now having to take two straight games not just in the Bronx but also against Max Fried and Gerrit Cole, the team is still in a good position thanks to its bullpen. In the first game of the series, Payton Tolle did all that was asked of him, tossing 4 2/3 innings while allowing just one earned run on five hits and a walk. He also struck out four in his first postseason start. The biggest issue was when he was pulled, as the young left-hander had thrown just 83 pitches and had retired five straight Yankee batters. While he had thrown a decent number of high-leverage pitches as the Yankees managed to get runners on base in nearly every inning he was on the mound, the imposing left-hander appeared to have things under control. Despite that, Red Sox manager Chad Tracy decided to turn to left-handed reliever Erik Miller to try and get Ben Rice out to complete the fifth inning instead of letting Tolle a chance to face the Massachusetts native for a third time. That move backfired immediately as Miller (who struggled down the stretch in September) left a sinker over the heart of the plate that Rice drove 423 feet to center field for a home run and a 2-0 Yankee lead. Against Cam Schlittler, that would prove to be insurmountable. With that in mind, Tracy went with a distinct plan moving forward with his bullpen, one that could give Boston a chance to come back and win the series. He refused to go to any of his high-leverage arms regardless of the situation and saw things through to the end using his other bullpen pitchers. Of the arms who appeared in the Game 1 loss, only Miller was a true late-game option for the team since arriving from San Francisco, while both Brayan Bello and Alec Gamboa had provided quality innings for the team but aren't more than long and middle relievers, respectively. At the very least, they aren't in the same echelon as Aroldis Chapman, Garrett Whitlock or even Garrett Crochet. For the team to succeed in the next two games, both Chapman and Whitlock need to be used in the most key situations. Seeing that the team was trailing against the likely AL Cy Young winner, Tracy instead turned to a bevy of relievers to mixed results. Greg Weissert did his job, giving the team a perfect inning of relief on just 15 pitches. That outing will likely keep him available for Wednesday’s Game 2. Miller, who threw just nine pitches, could also make an appearance if needed against a left-handed batter... though after his struggles in Game 1 (only getting one of the three batters he faced out), that might need to be in a low-leverage situation. Both Gamboa and Wyatt Olds also remained low on pitches as they threw 15 and 18, respectively, giving up the bulk of the runs. The two had been key mid-inning relievers for Boston throughout the season but succumbed to the pressures of postseason baseball. Despite that, the duo helped preserve a bullpen that is rather thin after losing Justin Slaten in the second half and Tyron Guerrero just before the start of the playoffs. On Wednesday night, the bullpen will have to be managed more aggressively. Tracy will have to go to his high-leverage arms of Whitlock, Crochet, and Chapman instead of attempting to walk a thin line with his other relievers. However, the biggest obstacle will be choosing when and how to use Crochet. The left-hander has been out of commission since late April, having only thrown side sessions and bullpens as he attempted to rev back up for postseason baseball. The team felt he was good enough to contribute, adding him to the roster. However, despite his best attempts to build back up, it’s likely that he will only be able to go once in the series. Tracy will have to determine when that should be. With Whitlock and Chapman, the duo would be able to go on back-to-back nights now, a much easier task than having to potentially pitch in three straight games. While the Red Sox may have lost Game 1 to the Yankees in a terrible fashion, they kept their best chances to compete in the remainder of the series alive. The push to face Tampa Bay in the ALDS isn't dead just yet. View the full article

When the postseason begins, the Milwaukee Brewers’ lineup will face a different kind of challenge. Opposing pitching staffs will have the time and information to build specific game plans around the top of Milwaukee’s lineup, and four of their most dangerous hitters—Garrett Mitchell, Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, and Jake Bauers—have each played important roles in an offense that has consistently found ways to create pressure, but October baseball is about exploiting every possible weakness. Let's delve into just how opposing teams might look to minimize the strength of the Brewers' most effective hitters. 1. Garrett Mitchell: Can you get him to chase? If Garrett Mitchell is going to lead off against right-handed pitching, opposing starters have an obvious problem: how do you attack a hitter who rarely chases, without giving him a pitch he can drive? Mitchell has a patient approach at the plate, rarely chasing pitches outside the zone and forcing pitchers to beat him inside it. He'll swing and miss inside the strike zone, but the other side of the coin is just how consistently hard Mitchell is hitting the ball. After adapting his swing mid-season to create more damage against the high fastball (more info here), Mitchell evolved back into the version of himself that had to sell out less for one pitch and can do serious damage against breaking pitches and fastballs, alike. In September, he had a 98-MPH average exit velocity against right-handed pitchers, and his mark was 95 MPH against all fastballs in the same month. The one pitch I didn't mention is, perhaps, the one thing holding him back. Thomas Nestico (TJstats) has the conditionally formatted breakdown for Mitchell (above) against right-handed pitching, and it shows off a few things. Teams typically don't like to pound the strike zone against Mitchell, thanks to the quality of contact he produces against almost every kind of pitch, but his low chase rate makes this a real cat-and-mouse scenario. Mitchell's hard-hit rates against nearly every pitch are exemplary, bar two: the changeup and the splitter. Having an offering that Mitchell struggles to damage is a real neutraliser. A 55% whiff rate against the changeup makes it an easy pitch to spam, even if only to get ahead in counts and set up a high fastball to put him away. Pitchers have been front-dooring the changeup a lot to Mitchell this season for just that reason, but the low chase rate does present a wrinkle. Off-speed pitches are typically located in-zone less than any other pitch in baseball, and are difficult to command. If they miss, Mitchell is unlikely to chase, and you're handing count leverage to a very dangerous hitter. Mitchell can still hit lefties, especially those without a strong sinker, but there is a platoon advantage for southpaws against him. Having Jackson Chourio hitting behind Mitchell adds some nuance to the situation, punishing teams for strategically going to a southpaw, but it does neutralize Mitchell somewhat. He tends to watch sinkers coming back over the outer third of the plate and struggles to elevate when facing same handed-pitching. 2. Jackson Chourio: Can you get ahead without feeding him? A locked-in Jackson Chourio is almost impossible to pitch to. He'll be aggressive inside the strike zone, can put the barrel to the ball in the shadow areas at the edges, and elevates everything. He's dangerous, but finding that "temperature," as Pat Murphy refers to it, has been an issue at times this year. Chourio has dipped in and out of the state of mind that sees him pulverize baseballs, but he does have a history of rising to the occasion in the biggest moments, with a career playoff OPS over 1.000 and his two-run home run against the Cubs in the ninth inning earlier this month. The big question for the Brewers lineup's linchpin is: can you get Chourio into two-strike counts, without giving him something he can damage? The answer is, of course, 'maybe'. Early in the count, the outer third of the plate is open for business against Chourio, whose approach is focused on the inner third as he hunts a pitch to turn and burn on. His set-up at the plate is quite far away from the strike zone compared to most hitters, and because of how he opens up when he's trying to pull the ball, he doesn't always cover the outside corner well before he gets to two strikes. The problem for the pitcher is that you cannot leak those pitches back over the heart of the plate. A pitcher with supreme command (like Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Zack Wheeler) could really take advantage of this, but if those pitches leak back at all, you can see the danger of leaving anything middle-middle to Chourio, If you can get count leverage against Chourio, then his strike-zone awareness becomes a bigger issue. In those spots, pitchers have nibbled heavily against him this year, with great success. If he can stay calm, Chourio can carry this Brewers offense. The challenge, then, isn't simply finding a location Chourio struggles to attack. It's getting to that location early in the count, without giving him something better to hit. It's no small thing to ask of a pitcher: have the right stuff in your arsenal, and don't you dare miss with it. 3. Brice Turang: Does the Lefty Blueprint Still Work? @Jason Wang informed me on the Brewer Fanatic Sunday Live show that Brice Turang has the same Baseball Reference WAR in 2026 as Christian Yelich's 2018 season. That's incredible, but the better news is that the obvious postseason blueprint for Turang may no longer work. For most of 2026, the blueprint against Brice Turang was obvious: give him left-handed pitching. By September, that blueprint had begun to break down. On the year as a whole, Turang has a 76 WRC+ against left-handers, compared to a 149 WRC+ against right-handed pitching. Most of it stemmed from timing issues in how he drifted forward, cutting down his reaction time and leaving him consistently late on fastballs (again, for more details, see this excellent piece, by Jack Stern). Toward the end of August and into September, however, there are clear signs that throwing a left-hander at Turang is no longer an easy button: His expected weighted on-base average had been .250 or below in three of the previous four months against southpaws. It skyrocketed to .425 in September, with Turang hitting balls harder (50% hard-hit rate) and whiffing less (just a 16.7% in-zone whiff rate in the final month). His September results look something like this against left-handers (note that TJStats doesn't exclude bunts from exit-velocity-based statistics, which skews those somewhat): The one lingering weakness may be against the four-seam fastball. Turang does have a hole in his swing, thanks to the steep bat path he's adopted this year, on fastballs up and away. If a pitcher can pound him in that zone, there's not much he's able to do from a damage perspective, but he is patient enough to take those pitches out of the zone and work a count into something more favorable. In this form, Turang can be gotten out reliably only with near-perfect execution, just like Chourio. 4. Jake Bauers: Can you neutralize the power? Jake Bauers's transformation in 2026 has created a fulcrum for this offense. His adjusted mentality in the box compared to prior years has created a calmness that's been invaluable, not just for himself, but for the Brewers clubhouse. That will be critical for an offense that dwindled in the 2025 postseason when the lights got bright, but his biggest contribution is in the consistent provision of power. Bauers looked on track for close to 30 home runs at points in the season, before shin splints derailed him in September, but with five days away from baseball and a more managed load across the last two weeks, the Brewers will be hoping to see their most important slugger back in top form by Saturday. Bauers has produced without a significant platoon disadvantage this season, actually finishing with a higher OPS against left-handers than he did against right-handed pitchers, and an almost .900 OPS overall. He can swing and miss, and his 27% strikeout rate isn't to be ignored, but those strikeouts aren't coming from undue free swinging. On the contrary, Bauers is quite passive inside the strike zone. In 2024 and 2025, Bauers swung at roughly 77% of pitches over the heart of the plate. In 2026, that number has dropped to 70%. That's a bit of a head-fake toward concern, as the damage Bauers has done on those pitches in 2026 has exponentially increased, but it can allow pitchers to get ahead early. Still, Bauers is comfortable in any count, and his xwOBA on contact is actually higher when behind in the count, compared to when he gets ahead. If there's one thing Bauers doesn't seem to pick up well and adjust to, it's a 12-6 curveball. His chase rate against out-of-zone curveballs is good, but when he does swing, the results have been less than ideal. In 2026, he's recorded a batting average of .036 and a wOBA of .174, as well as a barrel rate of just 5.9%. For a hitter who elevates the ball with the authority like Bauers, that's worthy of attention. The curveball therefore presents an unusual opportunity. Bauers isn't particularly prone to chasing it, so simply throwing it below the zone won't necessarily produce a swing. But when he does offer, the results have been dramatically worse than against most other pitches. For a pitcher willing to get into disadvantageous counts and still trust the curveball, that may be the clearest route to limiting Bauers's damage. Of course, again, you need a pitcher with a trustworthy curve to make it work. Four Hitters, Four Different Problems The most encouraging part of this exercise for Milwaukee is that there isn't a single blueprint for attacking the top of this lineup. Mitchell can be challenged with changeups and splitters, but only if pitchers can locate them well enough to avoid handing him another hitter's count. Chourio can be tested on the outer third early in counts, but the margin for error is tiny when a mistake over the plate can turn into immediate damage. Turang's historic vulnerability to left-handed pitching remains relevant, but his September results suggest that simply turning to a southpaw may no longer be enough. And Bauers may have a weakness against the curveball, but even there, pitchers have to get him to offer at a pitch he has shown a willingness to take. That's ultimately what makes this Brewers lineup so interesting heading into October. Each hitter has an identifiable area where an opposing pitching staff can try to gain an advantage, but none of those weaknesses exists in isolation. Every potential solution comes with a corresponding risk. For Milwaukee, the postseason challenge is therefore not necessarily about finding a way to make these weaknesses disappear. It's about forcing opposing pitchers to pay for the times they try to exploit them. Few teams in baseball do that as well as the Brewers do. October baseball tends to magnify small advantages. The Brewers' hitters have them, too. The question is whether opposing pitching staffs can consistently find the right pitch, in the right location, at the right time, and whether Milwaukee's hitters can make them pay when they don't. The answers to those questions will determine how far the Crew goes this fall. View the full article

The Chicago Cubs were dominated from start to finish on Tuesday, falling 8-0 to the San Diego Padres in Game 1 of the National League Wild Card Series. Chicago was dominated by Padres right-hander Michael King, who fired seven shutout innings and allowed just one hit. Cubs left-hander Matthew Boyd was jumped early and often. It was a rather disappointing beginning to the postseason, and the Cubs are now just one loss away from that postseason run ending. That's all in the past, though, as the focus shifts to Wednesday night for Game 2. San Diego will send right-hander Nick Pivetta to the mound. Chicago should be familiar with Pivetta, as he started Game 1 of the 2025 Wild Card Series—a game that was a 3-1 win for the Cubs. On the mound for the Cubs will be right-hander Kevin Gausman. Gausman was acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays at the trade deadline, and he's been a bit inconsistent since coming over from Toronto. Lifetime stats show that the Padres have had some success against Gausman, as the players on the postseason roster have combined for a .272/.307/.431 slash line with eight home runs in 202 at-bats. There are a few matchups, though, that Gausman has the advantage in. He'll need to keep it that way in Game 2. Jackson Merrill Merrill had a solid Game 1 against Chicago, going 2-for-4, with one of those two hits being a two-run single that officially busted the game open. The two-hit effort certainly gave Merrill some confidence heading into Game 2, but Gausman has a chance to shut that confidence down quickly. Gausman has faced Merrill six times in his career and has yet to allow a hit to him. Three of the six at-bats have resulted in strikeouts, something that falls in line with Merrill's .220 average and 27.5% whiff rate on offspeed pitches this season. While Merrill certainly isn't one of the big bats atop the San Diego lineup, he's still an important piece in the lineup and someone that could change a game if Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado are quiet in Game 2. Since the beginning of August, Merrill is batting .298/.341/.551, which weighs much more heavily than six at-bats against Gausman, but it's some comfort to know that the big righty has the right arsenal to quell Merrill's hot streak. Jake Cronenworth Cronenworth has the fifth-most at-bats (19) of any Padres player against Gausman, and those 19 at-bats have been a tough go. Cronenworth is 2-for-19 with six strikeouts against Gausman, a slash line of .105/.105/.105. It will be another matchup for Gausman that isn't necessarily against one of the top bats in the lineup, but instead, against an experienced postseason player who has shown a clutch gene in previous years. Much like Merrill, Cronenworth does have the ability to make a major impact on the game and is someone that Gausman will need to keep off balance and not allow him to gain any confidence. Avoiding uprisings from the bottom half of the lineup will be crucial. Even if it's not possible to shut down the best bats in the San Diego lineup, keeping the little guys from hurting him should allow Gausman to keep the Cubs in the game. Manny Machado If you look solely at the career statistics, this one may not make a ton of sense. Machado has seen great success against Gausman in his career, to the tune of a .346 average with a .962 OPS and two home runs. A lot of the slugging from Machado is well in the past, though, as both of his hits against Gausman in the regular season were innocent singles to left field. Machado did have a big night in Game 1 against Boyd, a pitcher he's had great success against in his career, but Wednesday's matchup should be different. Machado hit just .127 with a 30.2% whiff rate on off-speed pitches during the regular season, and that's the group Gausman will use quite frequently with his changeup and splitter. The matchups between Machado and Gausman will be some of the most important at-bats of Game 2, and with the struggles Machado showed in the regular season, Gausman should have the advantage to keep a confident hitter off the board. There's also a chance that one of David Peterson or Clay Holmes makes an appearance in Wednesday's game. Unfortunately for Cubs fans, the big bats (such as Machado and Tatis) have excellent career numbers against both of those pitchers. Chicago's staff will certainly need to bear down and make adjustments if it hopes to perform well and get to a winner-takes-all Game 3 on Thursday. View the full article